Qualcomm Is on Its Biggest Uptrend in 2 Years—Can It Continue?

Key Points

• Shares of Qualcomm have been breaking out in recent weeks to their highest levels since February. 
• Strong technicals, a cheap valuation, and impressive diversification are the pillars of the bull case.
• However, it must continue to prove to investors that it can maintain this upward momentum.

Tech giant Qualcomm Inc. NASDAQ: QCOM has long tested investors' patience. While more well-known peers, such as NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ: NVDA, have ridden the artificial intelligence (AI) wave to record highs, Qualcomm has remained effectively idle and is currently trading at 2021 levels. As we’ve written about several times in recent months, the company has been one of the most frustrating semiconductor stories in the market.

However, there are signs that the company is finally starting to shed that reputation. Shares closed just under $170 on Friday, their highest level since last February, and are in the middle of the stock’s most convincing rally in nearly two years.

When this uptrend is combined with a price-to-earnings ratio of only 16 and a MACD that looks quite bullish, Qualcomm’s profile suddenly becomes much more appealing.

The question is whether this breakout marks a lasting shift or if Qualcomm’s biggest uptrend in nearly two years can continue. Let’s jump in and take a look at the arguments for and against. 

Qualcomm Stock Shows Signs of Bullish Momentum

Starting with the bull's argument first, it has to be said that while momentum has been absent from Qualcomm’s chart for too long, it is firmly back in play. While the most obvious sign of this is the stock’s upward march since April, it also has a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 62 and a MACD trending positively.

Investors who have avoided the name due to its dead-money reputation are beginning to notice the shift. The argument is growing that this is a longer-term rally taking shape rather than just a short-term bounce.

The decisive move above $160 also represents a clean breakout from months of range-bound trading against stubborn resistance. Qualcomm now sits at its highest levels in seven months, with prior resistance around $160 morphing into likely support.

If the stock can continue to consolidate at its current levels, it sets the stage for a higher base from which to rally into the months ahead. 

Qualcomm Shifts Narrative Beyond Smartphones

A stock rally of this magnitude requires more than just technicals, and the good news for the bulls is that Qualcomm has been busy developing new narratives. For years, its reliance on smartphones made it overly vulnerable to handset cycles, but today, diversification is the key theme.

Unsurprisingly, artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the leading initiatives. Qualcomm has positioned itself as a major player in on-device AI, a segment distinct from NVIDIA's data center dominance. Its latest Snapdragon platforms are designed to make AI capabilities standard in mobile devices and PCs.

This positions Qualcomm to capture a share of AI spending that may otherwise bypass it.

Qualcomm Expands Into Automotive Technology

Automotive is another pillar of growth. Qualcomm’s work with auto-giant BMW on advanced driver-assistance systems underscores how its technology is extending beyond handsets. The company has already booked strong revenue growth in this segment, and management believes it could become a multi-billion-dollar business over time.

By making strides in the AI and automotive spaces, Qualcomm is diversifying its revenue and building a stronger narrative for investors that has been lacking in recent years. The tech sector thrives on narrative, and Qualcomm is finally giving Wall Street something fresh to focus on.

Risks Remain Despite Qualcomm’s Bullish Momentum

Despite the bullish setup that’s emerging, risks undoubtedly remain, and Qualcomm’s licensing division continues to be a double-edged sword. The cash it generates is vital, but the business has been the subject of regulatory scrutiny and disputes with customers such as Huawei. A setback in these revenues would quickly undercut the bullish outlook.

Customer concentration is another concern. Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL, for example, a long-time key customer, is investing heavily in its internal roadmap and working to reduce its reliance on Qualcomm’s modems, a shift that’s expected to affect future revenue materially. However, this likelihood has been known to investors for many months now and is likely already factored into the price. 

Still, the shadow of past disappointments is real. Investors have been burned before, and Qualcomm will need to continue proving that this time is different.