Rivian’s Chart Says Go, But Some Analysts Still Say No

Key Points

• Rivian edges toward profitability, and momentum builds after a strong Q3.
• Shares surged up to 30% midweek and are holding gains—for now. 
• Analysts remain divided between optimism about growth and caution regarding valuation.

Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. NASDAQ: RIVN are once again on the verge of a breakout, as they knock on the door of the $15-16 level that bears have been defending vigorously all year. If they can manage to break through, then they could be on track to deliver one of the year’s most dramatic recovery rallies.

The EV maker, long seen as a poster child of COVID-era hype, seems to be finding its stride again.

For more than 18 months, it has been setting consistently lower lows, setting the stage for a rebound.

There is some stubborn resistance that has repeatedly held it back from moving towards $20, but after its third-quarter earnings results, released Nov. 4, that could change. 

The report showed the company edging closer to profitability, with some impressive year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth. Shares popped as much as 30% on Nov. 5, and held most of those gains through the next day. Given the lackluster performance of the stock this year, it’s an impressive show of technical strength that the bulls will appreciate. The question now is whether that strength can last, and how to position for it.

Strong Fundamentals Back the Momentum

The key takeaway from this week’s earnings report was that, despite Rivian’s earnings per share (EPS) coming in slightly weaker than forecast, the underlying momentum was impressive. Deliveries appeared to be on track, margins improved, and demand for its core models remained strong. The company also reaffirmed its production guidance for the year, giving credibility to its operational turnaround.

One particularly bright spot was revenue, which increased nearly 80% YOY, marking Rivian’s second-best performance ever. The growth was driven by solid execution and a disciplined focus on cost management. Notably, earnings per share, though still negative, were among the narrowest Rivian has reported in years, a sign that it’s finally approaching financial profitability.

Despite competition from Tesla Inc. NASDAQ: TSLA and regional demand dips, Rivian continues to hold its own. Its mix of design quality, manufacturing control, and a loyal customer base clearly separates it from smaller EV makers still fighting to survive.

The Chart Is Flashing Bullish

Rivian’s setup is arguably the strongest it’s looked all year. As noted above, the stock has been setting new lows for nearly two years, and the 30% post-earnings surge has returned it to the key resistance level around $16.

This is where the bulls have run out of steam several times this year already, notably in January, May, and September. 

However, several momentum indicators, as well as the fundamental performance, support that the bulls may be in a solid position to break through this time. 

The stock’s relative strength index (RSI) is only in the mid-50s, signaling strong buying interest but not overbought conditions. 

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) also recently had a bullish crossover, confirming that the bulls are firmly in control. If the stock remains around $15 through the weekend, it could set the stage for a proper test of the upper end of the range in the coming weeks. 

Analyst Sentiment Is Divided

The market appears to be re-rating Rivian higher, but Wall Street analysts remain sharply divided on its next move.

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its Neutral rating this week, citing ongoing execution risk and persistently high cash burn as key concerns.

JPMorgan Chase, meanwhile, maintained its Underweight stance last month, pointing to valuation headwinds and mounting pressure from intensifying competition.

These cautious views, however, contrast with the bullish take from Canaccord Genuity, which reiterated its Buy rating in October along with a $21 price target. Even after this week’s surge, that still suggests nearly 40% potential upside.

Balancing the Setup

From the investor’s perspective, the alignment of fundamentals and technicals creates a tempting setup. The risk, however, lies in whether Rivian can sustain momentum once the excitement of earnings fades. If the broader EV sector pulls back or profit-taking occurs next week, the stock could quickly retrace toward its support level.

The weakness seen across the broader market recently isn’t helping. After hitting an all-time high at the end of October, the benchmark S&P 500 index has begun to turn south, making it difficult for growth stocks like Rivian to remain attractive. 

Still, for those with a long enough time horizon and an appetite for risk, it’s hard not to be attracted to 80% YOY growth and a technical setup that’s pointing north.