Roblox Stock Gains Momentum and Can Top $100 in 2025

Key Points

• Roblox's beat-and-raise quarter is just the start of a solid year; momentum is building.
• Free cash flow is greatly improved and is driving value for shareholders.
• Analysts and institutional trends provide support for this market, on track to reach fresh highs soon. 

Roblox's NYSE: RBLX stock price is gaining momentum and could realistically top $100 in 2025, driven by accelerating improvements in its core business fundamentals. While the company continues to report GAAP net losses, the underlying financial health is strengthening, with significant progress in key operational metrics that point to a sustainable growth trajectory. 

Revenue growth remains solid, driven by continued user engagement and monetization of its immersive platform, while the shift toward greater cost discipline bolsters profit margins. Importantly, Roblox is demonstrating strong growth in cash flow and free cash flow (FCF), two critical indicators of long-term business viability. These improvements reflect better management of operating expenses, increased developer payouts, and more efficient capital allocation.

As the company inches closer to profitability, its improving earnings quality is translating into greater investor confidence, helping to drive the recent surge in stock price. If these trends continue, Roblox may overcome its current financial hurdles and unlock significant shareholder value in the quarters ahead.

Roblox Confirms Uptrend After Beat-and-Raise Quarter

The Roblox stock price entered a reversal and confirmed a new uptrend earlier in 2025, and then again following the Q1 release and guidance update due to outperformance and a strong outlook. The company’s $1.04 billion in revenue grew by 29% year-over-year (YOY), an acceleration compared to the prior quarter and year, with bookings and other key metrics suggesting strength in Q2 and the remainder of 2025.

Bookings, which are the total revenue plus the change in deferred revenue, impacted by on-platform sales, grew by 31% and outpaced consensus estimates by more than 500 basis points. 

Other internal metrics that indicate sustained strength in 2025 include average daily active users, monthly unique players, engagement, and bookings per player. Average daily players are up 26% on a 30% increase in monthly unique users. Engagement is also up by 30%, and bookings per player are up 4%. The takeaway is that Roblox is building leverage with its user base and is quickly reaching critical mass, likely to continue outperforming as the year progresses. 

Margin news is also good. The company continues to post losses due to heavy investments in the technology platform, customer, and developer engagement. Still, it is improving its cash flow and, more importantly, its free cash flow. The timing of payments affects free cash flow in Q1, but even so, it remains solid, is up by a high double-digit amount, and is expected to remain strong this year.

The critical takeaway is that FCF and FCF improvement allowed for a significant cash build on the balance sheet, a 42% increase in shareholder equity, and an expectation for additional gains this year. 

Guidance is a catalyst that drives the stock price and may continue to lift it as the year progresses. The company lifted its guidance due to Q1's strengths, but may need to increase it again in the coming quarters. The company forecasts revenue to be flat compared to Q1 but up about 20% year-over-year at the midpoint, with similar results expected through the end of the year. 

Roblox Institutional and Analyst Trends Could Strengthen in May

Roblox institutional and analyst trends include mixed messages, such as price target reductions and selling, but the bulk of activity is bullish. The trends that matter include the increase in coverage and a steadily rising consensus price target, up 35% in the last year, according to data provided by MarketBeat. 

That trend will likely continue in Q2 and 2025 due to the strength in results, and could also gain momentum. The only bad news is that the market for the stock has outpaced the consensus price target, suggesting it is overvalued.

However, the revision trend is up and leading to the high-end range. Wedbush set the high price target in May, putting this market at a three-year high. Regarding the institutions, they are buying this stock in 2025 and will provide steady support, owning more than 90% of the shares. 

Roblox's price action following the release was bullish. The market surged about 4% to set a multi-month high and set up to retest its then-current multi-year high. Assuming the market follows through on the signal, it could push this stock up to the multi-year high by the end of the quarter. The critical resistance is near $75.75, and critical support is near $69, rising as of May 1.