Rocket Lab Strengthens Case for Breakout With New Launch Pad

Key Points

• Rocket Lab has displayed notable relative strength against the overall market following its false breakdown attempt near $40. 
• The opening of Launch Complex 3 and progress on Neutron position the company for significant growth in medium-lift launches.
• Analysts are becoming increasingly bullish, with price targets steadily rising as confidence in Rocket Lab’s execution grows.

There’s simply no slowing down the rise of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. NASDAQ: RKLB. After a brief pullback from its 52-week high, shares of the aerospace and defense company tested support near $40 before regaining momentum and pushing back toward a key breakout level at $50.

That strength, especially at a time when broader markets have been showing early signs of weakness, raises the question of whether RKLB is setting itself up for something bigger.

In many cases, a failed move lower can set the stage for a fast move higher, and Rocket Lab’s recent price action could be a textbook example of just that.

A Failed Breakdown With Strong Relative Strength

From a technical perspective, few setups look as bullish as RKLB right now. The stock briefly broke below its $40 support level in August, a move that might have spooked weaker hands. But almost immediately, it reclaimed that level, bounced off its 50-day moving average, and pushed higher once again. That kind of false breakdown is often a bullish tell, signaling that sellers may have exhausted themselves and buyers are regaining control.

What makes it more compelling is how RKLB has been performing relative to the market. While the S&P 500 flashed weakness on both Friday and early Tuesday morning, Rocket Lab held firm. That relative strength is something investors pay close attention to, especially when the broader tape looks shaky. It suggests that the demand for the stock is strong enough to withstand near-term market turbulence.

For a bigger move to materialize, RKLB will still need to clear resistance near $50. If it does, the stage could be set for a meaningful breakout higher.

Neutron and the Opening of LC-3

Perhaps the most exciting development in recent weeks is the company’s progress with its Neutron program. On Aug. 28, Rocket Lab celebrated the official opening of Launch Complex 3 at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport in Virginia. This site is dedicated to its next-generation, reusable medium-lift rocket Neutron, which has the potential to reshape Rocket Lab’s role in the launch industry.

Launch Complex 3 will allow Rocket Lab to deliver the largest orbital launch capacity in the spaceport’s history. Neutron itself is designed to carry up to 13,000 kilograms to orbit, positioning the company to compete in commercial satellite deployment, national security missions, and even human spaceflight over time. CEO Peter Beck emphasized that the site and rocket represent Rocket Lab’s commitment to providing reliable and responsive space access for the United States. 

Analysts Growing More Bullish

Wall Street has taken notice of these developments. Roth Capital recently raised its price target on Rocket Lab from $50 to $60, while reiterating a Buy rating, citing growing confidence following a visit to the new LC-3 launch site. 

The firm highlighted that the necessary infrastructure for Neutron is now complete, and momentum toward a first launch appears strong.

This is not an isolated call. In fact, the consensus price target on RKLB has been climbing steadily for over a year, reflecting analysts’ growing confidence in the company’s execution.

Twelve months ago, the average target was just $6.75.

Three months ago, it had climbed to $25. Now, it sits at $42.27, with multiple analysts maintaining Buy ratings.

Looking Ahead: Can the Strength Hold?

The question for investors now is whether Rocket Lab can sustain this momentum and push through resistance even if the broader market stumbles. Seasonal weakness could weigh on equities, but if RKLB continues to show relative strength, its own catalysts may allow it to buck the trend. The failed breakdown at $40 and the bullish technical recovery add weight to the breakout case, while the opening of LC-3 and Neutron’s progress provide fundamental backing.

Rocket Lab has already proven its resilience and ability to deliver. With strong relative strength, bullish technical indicators, and meaningful catalysts, it may only be a matter of time before the $50 resistance is cleared.