Rubrik’s Selloff Could Be Cybersecurity’s Hidden Opportunity

Key Points

• Cybersecurity stock Rubrik is down big in 2026, similar to names across the software industry.
• The company's latest earnings were much better than expected, and it looks poised to turn a profitability corner in 2026.
• While AI disruption fears fill the market, Rubrik's importance to its clients fortifies its position.

Rubrik NYSE: RBRK is a different kind of cybersecurity company, generating impressive growth as customers recognize the value of its differentiated approach. Most cybersecurity companies focus on preventing threats by building firewalls or managing who can access information.

Rubrik is fundamentally different. Instead of trying to prevent cyberattacks, the company’s solutions provide value after they occur. Its Preemptive Recovery Engine generates a rich understanding of its clients' data over time. That way, after an attack, clients can recover data and resume operations as quickly as possible. Ultimately, the goal is to move recovery time from weeks to days, helping clients minimize the revenue loss that a cyber attack creates.

In this sense, Rubrik’s solutions are sort of “cybersecurity insurance." You don’t want to need to use it, but if something goes wrong, you’ll be happy you have it.

In its latest earnings report, Rubrik had another impressive quarter. Yet, the tech stock is down more than 30% in 2026, setting up a potential opportunity for investors in a unique cybersecurity name.

RBRK Smashes Forecasts on Sales and EPS

In its Q4 fiscal year 2026 (FY2026), Rubrik posted revenue of $378 million, or growth of 46%. Note that the company’s fiscal reporting period is several quarters ahead of the calendar period. The firm’s top-line growth greatly exceeded expectations of around 33%.

Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at 4 cents, much better than the 18-cent loss the firm took in the same period last year. Analysts expected the figure to improve to an 11-cent loss, but certainly didn’t see this swing into positive territory coming. For the full year, adjusted loss per share was 1 cent.

The company remains unprofitable on an unadjusted basis, but its quarterly GAAP loss per share improved from 61 cents to 43 cents. For the full year, the figure improved massively from a loss of $7.48 to a loss of just $1.78.

Looking into its new fiscal year, Rubrik expects growth of 21% to 22%, compared with 48% in FY2026. It also sees itself as profitable on an adjusted basis for the full year for the first time, forecasting adjusted EPS between 7 cents and 27 cents. Guidance on both figures exceeded expectations.

Rubrik Pushes Back Hard on AI Disruption Risk

One of the main reasons for the significant drop in RBRK shares during 2026 is the same thing affecting much of the software industry: artificial intelligence (AI) disruption risk. Importantly, one analyst asked whether data recovery and resilience could be “meaningfully automated by AI over time," potentially impacting Rubrik’s core business.

CEO Bipul Sinha said, “I don't believe that we have any disruption risk at all from AI." This is certainly a bit absolute, but there are several compelling factors that provide Rubrik with a defense against AI disruption.

First off, Rubrik plays a critical role for its clients, being the “system of record of last resort around data and identity." When all other cybersecurity defense mechanisms have failed, Rubrik is the system that clients rely on to go from a state of chaos back to normalcy. This service can prevent Rubrik’s customers from losing significant revenue and trust.

Clients could try to lower costs by building these capabilities themselves or trusting an emerging AI company to do so, but it comes with big risks if they get it wrong. With so much to potentially lose, trying to cut corners on the “cybersecurity insurance” Rubrik provides could be a very bad idea.

Importantly, Rubrik also notes that it generates revenue based on the amount of data its clients want to protect, not how many employees they have. This sits in contrast to “seat-based” revenue models, where companies charge per employee with access to their software. This is key because Rubrik’s revenue will not be negatively affected if its clients use AI to replace employees. In fact, as deploying AI requires the use of more data, Rubrik’s platform would arguably become more important. Still, the idea that Rubrik faces no AI disruption risk is likely short-sighted.

RBRK Could Be Set Up for a Meaningful Recovery After Recent Weakness

Rubrik has a mission-critical product, is experiencing strong growth, and is improving its profitability. Notably, the firm’s stock-based compensation is very high, coming in at $329 million in FY2026. This inflates its FY2026 free cash flow of $238 million, as if the firm weren't paying employees with stock, it would have to do so with cash. Still, stock-based compensation dropped massively from $913 million in FY2025, a positive sign. Meanwhile, free cash flow rose by more than 10x from $21.6 million in FY2025.

The MarketBeat consensus price target for Rubrik is near $91.50, implying more than 70% upside. Targets updated after the company’s earnings release average $86, implying more than 60% upside.

Overall, Rubrik’s business is in a good position, and its stock price looks reasonably attractive after a significant sell-off in 2026.