Savvy Investors Are Raising a Glass for Heineken Stock

Key Points

• Heineken stock is up 23% in 2025, driven by strong premiumization strategies, reaffirmed earnings outlook, and a $1.6 billion share buyback program.
• The company is committing €40 billion to revamp Star Pubs, creating 1,000 jobs, building on a €9.5 million investment in 2024.
• With a modest P/E ratio and an 18% price target upside, Heineken is outperforming its five-year average, offering solid returns and a 2.27% dividend yield.

Inflation, higher interest rates, GLP-1 drugs, and tariff concerns have created a perfect storm for alcohol stocks. Normally, sin stocks perform well even when economic data is weak. But that hasn’t been the case in 2025.

That’s why Heineken N.V. OTCMKTS: HEINY should be on your radar. It’s up 23% for the year as of May 15, 2025. The company is in the middle of a major investment plan that could set the stage for future growth. 

Of course, investors may be concerned that a stock that’s up so much in 2025 is getting ready to roll over. Those fears appear to be unfounded in the case of Heineken. This is a stock picker’s market, and Barron’s has rated Heineken as the best stock in the beer and spirits category.

One reason Barron’s is optimistic is that 95% of the company’s output is brewed in its home country, offering significant tariff protection. The world’s second-largest brewer also has limited exposure to potential tariffs from the United States. Only about 21% of the company’s sales volume comes from the Americas.

Delivering Solid Results When Execution Matters

Consumer staples stocks have been a good example of why this is a stock picker’s market. Consumers are still buying, but are objectively becoming more discerning. That’s showing up in company earnings reports, making a bullish case for Heineken.

In the company’s most recent quarter, it reported a 0.9% increase in net revenue even though volume was down 2.1%. That’s something that investors have seen from several other companies in the category. However, premium beer volume showed organic growth of 1.8%. 

That’s in keeping with the company’s strategy of focusing on premiumization, which is also why the brewer reaffirmed its 2025 earnings outlook.

In February 2025, Heineken announced a $1.6 billion share buyback program. The company’s most recent quarterly earnings report announced that it authorized the first tranche to be completed no later than January 2026. This should give investors some downside protection.

Heineken Is Reinvesting in Its Star Pubs Business

In support of the United Kingdom’s objective to boost economic growth, Heineken is investing approximately $44.7 billion (€40 billion) to remodel and reopen dozens of pubs across the country.

The cash will flow through the company's Star Pubs operation and is expected to create around 1,000 jobs. This new investment is a continuation of the approximately $10.6 million (€9.5 million) investment Heineken made in 2024 that resulted in 62 pubs reopening.

Don’t Let NIMBY Keep You From HEINY Stock

Over the past five years or more, the United States has been the place to be for equity investors. However, the case for U.S. stocks is not as strong in 2025 as diversification is winning the hearts and minds of investors who may have viewed international stocks with a “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) mentality. 

There are reasons for that. Investors will have to work harder to find information on international stocks. That's particularly true of a company that trades as an over-the-counter stock like HEINY. 

But there’s a reason why a global brand like Heineken is gaining ground among savvy investors. The 23% growth in 2025 is above its five-year total return of around 18%. Plus, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 16x, HEINY stock is trading at a discount to its five-year historical average.

The 20 analysts who have offered a rating for HEINY stock give it a consensus Buy with a price target of $51.71. That’s 18% above the stock’s price on May 15. That’s in line with the total return in HEINY stock over the last five years, which includes the company’s annual dividend that currently has a yield of 2.27%.