This ASML Dip Could Be Gone Before You Know It—Don’t Miss Out

Key Points

• ASML's stock price plunge is a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
• The cause is uncertainty about 2026; the underlying metrics are bullish.
• Capital returns, including aggressive buybacks, are expected to be safe in 2025.

ASML Holdings' NASDAQ: ASML stock price plunged more than 8% in pre-market trading following the release of its Q2 earnings, opening up a buying opportunity that is unlikely to last long.

The dip was caused by the guidance, specifically for F2026, which is still two reporting periods away. 

The company didn’t even provide bad guidance; instead, it offered uncertainty in the form of no guidance, citing macroeconomic headwinds and the concerns they bring to the semiconductor industry.

Until then, the Q2 report and guidance for Q3 and F2025 give no reason for investors to sell and every reason to believe the business will remain strong in 2026. Further, the capital return remains solid, providing incentive for investors and a tailwind for the price action. 

ASML Q2 Results Driven by AI End-Markets

ASML reported solid Q2 outperformance on the top and bottom lines relative to consensus figures, per MarketBeat. The company’s $8.92 billion (converted from Euros) in revenue is up 23% compared to last year and outperformed the consensus by 200 basis points, driven by strength in new technology.

The number of units sold fell compared to last year, but was offset by price differentials, resulting in a significant margin gain. CEO Christophe Fouquet noted the strength in DRAM markets, which are critical to AI due to HBM memory solutions, as well as the adoption of next-generation EUV lithography technology.

Margin is an area of strength that investors should not ignore. ASML’s price/mix resulted in significant outperformance on the bottom line, with the $6.84 in reported GAAP earnings nearly 90 cents, or 1,500 basis points, better than expected.

Regarding the guidance, the company issued the first look at Q3 expectations and narrowed the target range for the full year, providing a favorable outlook that expects momentum to continue.  

ASML’s balance sheet reflects the impacts of property investments and aggressive buybacks but remains solid overall. The reduction in cash and current assets is offset by increased property and total assets and reduced liabilities, and leverage remains very low.

The balance sheet is net cash, with long-term debt running approximately 0.2x the equity. This leaves the business in a nimble financial position that can sustain capital returns over the long term.

They include the dividend, which yields approximately 0.85% in mid-July, and share buybacks, which reduced the count by an average of 1.3% in Q2.

Analysts and Institutional Trends Support ASML in H2

The analyst and institutional trends support the price action in ASML stock this year. Institutions own less than 50% of the stock but are buying on balance while analyst sentiment is firm.

MarketBeat's data shows that 12 analysts currently rate the stock with a consistent and firm Moderate Buy rating, and they have recently raised their price targets. 

The recent revisions align with the consensus forecast for a 12% upside from the pre-release closing price and nearly 20% from the post-release opening. 

The question is whether ASML's market will support the stock near the cluster of moving averages in the $750 range or if its price falls below them. A move below $750 increases the potential for a significantly deeper pullback, which could take this market to $650 or lower before it reaches a solid bottom.

There is a risk that ASML will enter a trading range in this scenario, potentially moving sideways until early 2026, when more clarity is provided. Short interest is also a concern. Still low below 1% of the float, the interest has been increasing in recent months and presents a headwind for the market.