×
S&P 500   3,818.83 (-0.07%)
DOW   31,029.31 (+0.27%)
QQQ   283.86 (+0.11%)
AAPL   139.10 (+1.21%)
MSFT   260.00 (+1.37%)
META   163.83 (+1.96%)
GOOGL   2,233.00 (-0.32%)
AMZN   108.82 (+1.32%)
TSLA   685.35 (-1.81%)
NVDA   155.40 (-2.77%)
NIO   21.87 (-2.19%)
BABA   116.16 (-0.51%)
AMD   77.99 (-3.45%)
MU   56.05 (-3.13%)
CGC   3.50 (-3.05%)
T   20.95 (+1.65%)
GE   63.69 (-3.32%)
F   11.52 (-2.46%)
DIS   95.74 (-0.19%)
AMC   13.63 (+1.87%)
PFE   50.94 (+0.55%)
PYPL   71.54 (-0.39%)
NFLX   178.50 (-0.61%)
S&P 500   3,818.83 (-0.07%)
DOW   31,029.31 (+0.27%)
QQQ   283.86 (+0.11%)
AAPL   139.10 (+1.21%)
MSFT   260.00 (+1.37%)
META   163.83 (+1.96%)
GOOGL   2,233.00 (-0.32%)
AMZN   108.82 (+1.32%)
TSLA   685.35 (-1.81%)
NVDA   155.40 (-2.77%)
NIO   21.87 (-2.19%)
BABA   116.16 (-0.51%)
AMD   77.99 (-3.45%)
MU   56.05 (-3.13%)
CGC   3.50 (-3.05%)
T   20.95 (+1.65%)
GE   63.69 (-3.32%)
F   11.52 (-2.46%)
DIS   95.74 (-0.19%)
AMC   13.63 (+1.87%)
PFE   50.94 (+0.55%)
PYPL   71.54 (-0.39%)
NFLX   178.50 (-0.61%)
S&P 500   3,818.83 (-0.07%)
DOW   31,029.31 (+0.27%)
QQQ   283.86 (+0.11%)
AAPL   139.10 (+1.21%)
MSFT   260.00 (+1.37%)
META   163.83 (+1.96%)
GOOGL   2,233.00 (-0.32%)
AMZN   108.82 (+1.32%)
TSLA   685.35 (-1.81%)
NVDA   155.40 (-2.77%)
NIO   21.87 (-2.19%)
BABA   116.16 (-0.51%)
AMD   77.99 (-3.45%)
MU   56.05 (-3.13%)
CGC   3.50 (-3.05%)
T   20.95 (+1.65%)
GE   63.69 (-3.32%)
F   11.52 (-2.46%)
DIS   95.74 (-0.19%)
AMC   13.63 (+1.87%)
PFE   50.94 (+0.55%)
PYPL   71.54 (-0.39%)
NFLX   178.50 (-0.61%)
S&P 500   3,818.83 (-0.07%)
DOW   31,029.31 (+0.27%)
QQQ   283.86 (+0.11%)
AAPL   139.10 (+1.21%)
MSFT   260.00 (+1.37%)
META   163.83 (+1.96%)
GOOGL   2,233.00 (-0.32%)
AMZN   108.82 (+1.32%)
TSLA   685.35 (-1.81%)
NVDA   155.40 (-2.77%)
NIO   21.87 (-2.19%)
BABA   116.16 (-0.51%)
AMD   77.99 (-3.45%)
MU   56.05 (-3.13%)
CGC   3.50 (-3.05%)
T   20.95 (+1.65%)
GE   63.69 (-3.32%)
F   11.52 (-2.46%)
DIS   95.74 (-0.19%)
AMC   13.63 (+1.87%)
PFE   50.94 (+0.55%)
PYPL   71.54 (-0.39%)
NFLX   178.50 (-0.61%)

Volatility Spikes On Russian Aggression, Equity Markets Reverse 

Monday, March 7, 2022 | Thomas Hughes
Volatility Spikes On Russian Aggression, Equity Markets Reverse 

Equity Markets Reverse On Spiking Volatility

Russian aggression in Ukraine remains unchecked and is driving volatility in global markets. The latest news has Putin manipulating ceasefire agreements in his efforts to push deeper into the embattled territory. The latest targets include population centers and civic infrastructure and are intended to drive Ukrainians from their homes. The news has the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) up more than 5% in early trading at the start of the week and the trend is up. Our take on the fear gauge is that it is on the rise along with the chances of an all-out World War Three scenario. The only hope for Ukraine is assistance from western nations which ultimately means a proxy war between us and them. In that scenario, China may move on Taiwan and block shipping lanes in the South China Sea, it’s as easy as that, and Ukraine is paying the price now no matter what happens. 

Volatility At New Highs As Russia Moves On Kyiv 

The fear index spiked more than 5% in early trading and is now well above what we view as a key resistance point. The 32.00 level has been the top for the VIX for almost a year and it looks like this test of resistance broke through and is now heading higher. The weekly chart of VIX shows has indicators that are not only bullish but set up to run and have plenty of room to do so. The premarket action is down from the high of the morning but trading near the extreme high of any previous test of resistance with no reason to believe geopolitical, economic, or market conditions will have good news for the next few weeks to several months at least. In our view, the VIX may move down to test support at the 32.00 level but we would expect to see it rebound and trend up to set another high near or above the 40.00 level. 

Volatility Spikes On Russian Aggression, Equity Markets Reverse 


As always, a change in the VIX means a change in the underlying market and the SPX (NYSEARCA: SPY) appears to be in reversal as well. The index had been correcting but the growing uncertainty and economic risk have the bulls on the run. There is still plenty of interest around the 4,300 level but the market is at a turning point. If the bulls are unable to stage a significant rally at this point and get price action moving higher the S&P 500 will fall below the 4,300 level and then move to a much deeper low. By our estimates, this could be as deep as the 2,800 level or as much as 35% from current price action but we don’t think it will fall quite that far. We see the bottom, if the market falls that far, at or near 3,500. From that point, the market will be range-bound for the next several years. 

Volatility Spikes On Russian Aggression, Equity Markets Reverse 

Equity Bulls Are Drowning In Oil Price Spikes 

The price of WTI (NYSEARCA: USO) rose more than 5% at the start of the week as Russian production and capacity get priced out of the market. The move has WTI above our initial $122 target and well on the way to the all-time highs set in our best-case scenario (for oil, not for equities). The White House is talking with Venezuela to see if they can pump some more oil but that move is smoke and mirrors. The Venezuelan energy industry had deteriorated to the point of collapse well before the pandemic began and has only gotten worse since. The engineers and maintenance personnel who took of that equipment were driven out of the country long, long ago. In our view, oil prices will remain at these levels if not trending higher for the foreseeable future. OPEC’s not going to pump any more oil and we don’t seem to be eager to either.

Volatility Spikes On Russian Aggression, Equity Markets Reverse 

Companies Mentioned in This Article

CompanyMarketRank™Current PricePrice ChangeDividend YieldP/E RatioConsensus RatingConsensus Price Target
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
0.6467 of 5 stars
$380.500.0%1.94%N/AHoldN/A
Compare These Stocks  Add These Stocks to My Watchlist 

Should you invest $1,000 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust right now?

Before you consider SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, you'll want to hear this.

MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust wasn't on the list.

While SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust currently has a "Hold" rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.

View The 5 Stocks Here

Free Email Newsletter

Complete the form below to receive the latest headlines and analysts' recommendations for your stocks with our free daily email newsletter:


Most Read This Week

Recent Articles

Search Headlines:

Latest PodcastHow to Profit In The Bear Market

Today, Kate is joined by a repeat guest, Rob Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Publishing. Rob specializes in ETF portfolios designed to deliver returns in any kind of market condition, including the current bear. In this conversation, Rob gives specific ideas for handling various allocations in your portfolio, and discusses how to approach inverse ETFs.

MarketBeat Resources

Premium Research Tools

MarketBeat All Access subscribers can access stock screeners, the Idea Engine, data export tools, research reports, and other premium tools.

Discover All Access

Market Data and Calendars

Looking for new stock ideas? Want to see which stocks are moving? View our full suite of financial calendars and market data tables, all for free.

View Market Data

Investing Education and Resources

Receive a free world-class investing education from MarketBeat. Learn about financial terms, types of investments, trading strategies and more.

Financial Terms
Details Here
MarketBeat - Stock Market News and Research Tools logo

MarketBeat empowers individual investors to make better trading decisions by providing real-time financial data and objective market analysis. Whether you’re looking for analyst ratings, corporate buybacks, dividends, earnings, economic reports, financials, insider trades, IPOs, SEC filings or stock splits, MarketBeat has the objective information you need to analyze any stock. Learn more about MarketBeat.

MarketBeat is accredited by the Better Business Bureau MarketBeat is rated as Great on TrustPilot

© American Consumer News, LLC dba MarketBeat® 2010-2022. All rights reserved.
326 E 8th St #105, Sioux Falls, SD 57103 | U.S. Based Support Team at [email protected] | (844) 978-6257
MarketBeat does not provide personalized financial advice and does not issue recommendations or offers to buy stock or sell any security.

Our Accessibility Statement | Terms of Service | Do Not Sell My Information | RSS Feeds

© 2022 Market data provided is at least 10-minutes delayed and hosted by Barchart Solutions. Information is provided 'as-is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice, and is delayed. To see all exchange delays and terms of use please see disclaimer.