Why Freeport-McMoRan Stock May Hit a New High After Earnings Beat

Key Points

• Freeport-McMoRan is positioned to benefit from rising copper demand, which is driven by EVs, AI, grid upgrades, and infrastructure spending.
• The company posted a double-beat in Q2, with $2.1B in EBITDA, low debt, rising cash flow, and ongoing capital returns to shareholders.
• FCX stock could break above key resistance and its 50-day SMA to challenge all-time highs.

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. NYSE: FCX are down over 1.3% after the mining company delivered a double beat in its second-quarter earnings report. This is a reversal after FCX had bounced 1.3% higher at the market open.

Top-line revenue of $7.6 billion beat expectations for $6.8 billion and was 15% higher than the $6.6 billion recorded in the same quarter last year. On the bottom line, the 56 cents in earnings per share (EPS) was 20% higher than the 46 cents expected by analysts. It was also just over 20% higher on a year-over-year basis.

The strong results were backed by rising consolidation volumes in copper and gold, which are supported by rising prices in both metals.

But as many investors know, it’s the future that matters. Freeport-McMoRan forecasts “supportive fundamentals for copper pricing” for the rest of the year. That’s supported by copper inventories that are still near historic lows at a time when copper demand is rising.

This supply-demand dynamic is bullish for basic materials stocks in general. Specific to FCX stock, it’s not hard to see a new all-time high (ATH) by the end of the year.

Freeport-McMoRan Is Well Positioned for a Unique Setup

Freeport-McMoRan emphasized that demand is favorable in the company's long-term earnings presentation. Over 65% of the world’s copper is used in applications that deliver electricity. That ties into key themes in the United States, including:

• Grid modernization

• Electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables

• Artificial intelligence (AI)/data center buildouts

• U.S. re-shoring and infrastructure

Freeport-McMoran is the dominant copper producer in the United States and is uniquely positioned to increase copper production to meet the increased demand. Plus, the company’s ASIC (all-in sustaining costs) are below $2 at a time when COMEX has the spot price of copper prices at $5.88. This gives the company significant leverage on future earnings.

However, investors shouldn’t forget about gold. While the yellow metal makes up a small percentage of the miner’s revenue, it does act as a margin enhancer and helps boost the company’s free cash flow. This can be particularly true if copper prices consolidate in the short term.

Strong Fundamentals Strengthen the Bull Case

As expected, Freeport-McMoRan's capital expenditures (CapEx) were up in the quarter. But investors should be asking if Freeport-McMoRan is using that revenue efficiently.

The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion and operating cash flow of $1.8 billion.

Equally important, the company reduced its net debt to $1.5 billion and maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30%.

Additionally, Freeport-McMoRan is returning some of that capital to shareholders as a secure dividend, which has a payout ratio around 24% and pays 15 cents per share quarterly. The company also repurchased $5.5 billion of shares in the quarter.

Why an All-Time High May Be in Sight

FCX stock is up more than 18% in 2025. Since hitting a low in April, the stock formed an ascending triangle pattern before breaking higher in early July. The move to the upside has been supported by sustained volume has been increasing on days when the stock has been positive.

However, in the last 30 days, the stock has been hitting resistance around $54, and it’s dropped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Investors will want to see a breakout above the 50-day SMA on above-average volume.

A strong move like that would confirm that institutions continue to buy FCX stock as they’ve been doing for the last two quarters. A breakout above the current resistance level would also put the ATH of $61.54 in sight.