Why McCormick Stock Could Soar After Durables Data Surprise

Key Points

• McCormick stock jumps on better-than-expected Durable Goods orders for the United States, setting the stage for a continuation rally ahead.
• Fundamentals agree with the potential of higher prices in the stock, and so does management.
• Wall Street analysts and institutional buyers all landed on an optimistic scenario for this stock moving forward. 

Retail investors usually misread economic data (often even ignore it) as if it isand reserved for only Wall Stree something kept t to look at and consider in their trading decisions. However, in a market where information is as readily available as ever, it is more important today for investors to start tracking such data to help them generate ideas and develop timing tools for these ideas.

As of late June 2025, data for durable goods orders in the United States economy came in nearly double economist expectations, and, of course, any stock with exposure to durable goods (those that won’t perish within 30 days) jumped in reaction. Far from being late to the party, investors can use this data point to justify a new potential position in the stocks that are most likely to keep following up on this momentum.

One of those stocks is McCormick Inc. NYSE: MKC, not only because its fundamental business and products perfectly fit the description of non-perishable goods but also because of broader market conditions across the entire stock market today. As the S&P 500 index is over-concentrated in technology stocks today, there is a pending (massive) rotation due for other value names inside the consumer staples sector, where McCormick comes into play.

Why McCormick Deserves Attention from Investors

This is a company that most would not look over, as being in the food industry typically doesn’t go along any non-perishable thesis. However, this is where human research and intuition can help investors beat the semi-automated systems that would automatically bypass this opportunity.

Investors can now understand that by manufacturing seasoning mixes and similar products, McCormick is well-positioned to benefit from an increasing wave of durable goods orders in the future for the United States economy, an undervalued opportunity that is now in plain sight.

In fact, over the past month alone, up to 2.2% of McCormick stock’s short interest has declined to show a clear sign of bearish capitulation in the making, as these bearish investors start to realize that the future of this company may have a few positive catalysts as the economic data trickles down into the business.

With short sellers starting to retreat from McCormick stock, a new upward pressure may be forming to also capture the attention of new institutional buyers who are seeking momentum stocks like this one. Over the past month (which included the durable goods release), McCormick stock has delivered up to 5.5% in performance.

This sort of rally is unusual for a company considered low beta, and for a stock like this one to have such a move, it must mean there are other discrepancies beneath the surface that might turn this small move into a likely continuous one down the line.

Smart Money Gets in Ahead

Here, investors can recognize the importance of paying attention to economic data and how it can lead to some of the best investment ideas in the stock market. As of mid-May 2025, institutional allocators from T. Rowe Price decided to boost their holdings in McCormick stock by up to 28.6% in a new vote of confidence.

This new allocation brought their entire position to a high of $340.4 million today, providing the rest of the market with a new pillar of strength to lean on when seeking new upside potential plays in the market. Of course, this buying and continued upside must have a catalyst to stand behind it.

As of late June 2025, the company’s management issued a press release to reiterate the financial outlook for the rest of the year, along with a satisfactory performance for the second quarter of 2025. This is massive news in a world where uncertain trade terms and negotiations have made forecasting earnings and financials even more challenging for companies.

With this in mind, the 2025 outlooks are still pricing in some of the cost pressure and uncertainty in a world where trade negotiations are still ongoing. This leaves McCormick stock open for a potential beat on top of these outlooks as long as investors can reasonably expect trade agreements to be in place before the year is over.

Having this scenario play out in favor of better-than-expected 2025 results should clearly affect the way Wall Street analysts see the stock today, which holds a consensus price target of $84.1 per share to call for up to 10% upside from where it trades today.

If financial performance improves above these forecasts, then valuations should give investors the chance to test even higher prices. If this jump in durable goods orders indicates anything, the chances are high for McCormick to deliver and beat these financial outlooks.