Rocket Lab USA Receives Wall Street Validation: Time to Buy?

Key Points

• Baird and Morgan Stanley both recently issued bullish ratings and sharply higher price targets for Rocket Lab.
• Rocket Lab completed its 73rd successful Electron mission and secured two new dedicated launches with Japan’s JAXA.
• With shares up 172% YTD and RSI signaling overbought conditions, investors may want to await a pullback before entering, though Rocket Lab’s long-term growth trajectory remains firmly intact.

The good news keeps flowing for Rocket Lab USA NASDAQ: RKLB. The aerospace stock has continued to build on its impressive momentum with two positive analyst actions, another flawless Electron launch, and a new contract with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).

The company’s steady execution and growing Wall Street recognition highlight its emergence as a credible, publicly traded alternative to SpaceX, one that’s positioning itself to lead in both small and medium-lift launch markets.

RKLB Gains Further Wall Street Validation

On Oct. 15, Baird initiated coverage on RKLB with an Outperform rating and a lofty $83 price target. The firm noted that Rocket Lab has “firmly established itself” as a reliable space launch provider, citing its remarkable 94% mission success rate. Baird projects a 34% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue through 2030, an ambitious but achievable target given the company’s track record and pipeline.

The firm’s thesis centers on Neutron, Rocket Lab’s upcoming medium-lift rocket, which is expected to enable the company to compete directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Entering this highly lucrative market could significantly expand RKLB’s total addressable market and diversify its revenue beyond small satellite launches.

The Baird initiation followed just days after another bullish move from Wall Street heavyweight Morgan Stanley. On Oct. 13, the bank raised its price target on Rocket Lab to $68 from $20, citing the company’s emergence as a public market alternative to SpaceX amid growing demand for space capacity. The analysts emphasized that RKLB is “an earlier-stage alternative to SpaceX,” noting that their valuation model takes cues from SpaceX’s implied private valuation.

Morgan Stanley also highlighted the strength of Rocket Lab’s space systems division and its plans to develop its own satellite constellation, moves that mirror SpaceX’s expansion into Starlink. While the firm expects Neutron to generate negative margins early on, it forecasts company-wide revenue to grow at a 41% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, with positive free cash flow projected to begin in 2027.

Electron Continues to Deliver

While the market’s focus is understandably on the upcoming Neutron, Rocket Lab’s workhorse Electron rocket continues to deliver with precision. On Oct. 14, Rocket Lab completed its 73rd Electron mission, once again achieving flawless execution.

The successful flight came just days after another positive development. On Oct. 10, Rocket Lab announced it had signed a direct contract with JAXA for two dedicated Electron launches. The first, scheduled for December 2025, will deploy the RApid Innovative payload demonstration SatellitE-4 (RAISE-4) spacecraft, which will carry eight technology demonstrations developed by Japanese private companies, universities, and research institutions.

The second launch, planned for 2026, will carry a rideshare of eight separate spacecraft. This will include educational smallsats, an ocean monitoring satellite, a demonstration satellite for ultra-small multispectral cameras, and a deployable antenna designed using origami folding techniques.

So, with continued praise from analysts and further success with its Electron program, should investors be looking for a buy entry at current prices?

Is It Time to Buy RKLB?

Rocket Lab’s stock has been on a remarkable run, surging 172% year-to-date and over 630% in the past year. However, while the company continues to execute flawlessly and attract high-profile analyst attention, the technical picture suggests some caution for new buyers. With the RSI at 75, the stock sits in overbought territory, raising the likelihood of a near-term pullback.

Fundamentally, RKLB remains one of the most exciting names in the space sector. It’s well-positioned for long-term growth through its dual-engine strategy: consistent Electron launches and the forthcoming Neutron rocket. However, after such a steep rally, a more prudent entry point may emerge after a period of price digestion, a pullback toward $60, or even previous resistance near $55, where strong support could form.

With the next earnings scheduled for November 11, investors should pay close attention to updates on margins, backlog growth, and Neutron development progress. If management continues to deliver as it has, Rocket Lab could solidify its position as a high-growth space stock and as one of the defining players in the new space economy.