Amprius Technologies' Next Big Rally Could Be Taking Shape

Key Points

• Amprius Technologies shares corrected by 68% during the third quarter despite surging as much as 3,877% from the 2024 lows, and Elliott Wave analysis suggests the speculative phase has ended.
• A projected bullish wave could push AMPX shares above $31 by mid-2027, supported by a strengthening Moderate Buy rating and analyst targets reaching $30 to $33.
• A $75 million Department of War grant validated government interest in Amprius, setting up a capacity ramp targeting 12 million cells annually by early 2028.

Amprius Technologies NYSE: AMPX Q3 trend shift is shocking at face value, given the 68% correction in its share price over that period. During the quarter, shares were up as much as 3,877% from their 2024 lows, offering a compelling profit for early investors. The stock is still up relative to that time.

This stock's price action reflects a fundamental market shift that is still underway and likely to gain momentum in the coming quarters. Amprius Technologies’ technology has been validated; it's backed by government grants, the timeline to product ramp is accelerating, and profitability forecasts are accelerating along with it. With the company now in its execution phase, the upside potential is off the charts.

The Chart Says Speculation Phase Is Over, Execution Phase Underway

Amprius Technologies' chart action reveals that its first phase, the speculation phase, is complete or nearly so. The 2024-to-2026 price action clearly aligns with Elliott Wave Theory, showing a market waking up to this opportunity, buying into the outlook, and then driving the stock to fresh highs on FOMO, or the fear of missing out.

Elliot Waves are a widely used technical tool based on an eight-wave cycle. The five-wave impulse cycle includes three upswings and two corrections, with the middle surge usually the largest (it can never be the smallest, under a strict interpretation). In this case, AMPX’s market swings are 490%, 550%, and 215%, perfectly matching the rule. The three-wave corrective phase is now in play, with the bottom clearly marked. The question is whether AMPX’s market has completed the corrective action or faces another test of support, which can not be ruled out.

For investors, this suggests AMPX's market is likely near its bottom, as other indicators suggest. While AMPX hit fresh lows in mid-October, the market is diverging from its indicators and overextending ahead of an expected series of bullish catalysts. In this scenario, the stock is set for a bullish swing with the potential to sustain an upward trajectory despite periodic pullbacks and corrections.

Upcoming catalysts include the Q3 2026 earnings report due in early November. Quarterly results are likely to be strong, given the contract wins, ongoing capacity ramp, and history of outperformance. Consensus forecasts only slight quarter-to-quarter growth and a slowdown to about 66.5% year-over-year, likely underestimating the strength. Guidance will be the more critical factor, as trends point to a surge in product availability next year. Analysts forecast only about 50% growth next year, another figure likely to be outperformed.

AMPX’s Next Bullish Wave Could Send Shares Above $31

In the world where Amprius’ outlook is blossoming, completing the initial eight-wave Elliot Cycle marks the end of the second wave in a much larger movement. In this scenario, AMPX is set up to advance by an amount equal to the first cycle—about $23.62 as a base case—and can easily exceed that amount if the news cycle cooperates. The bull case requires flawless or nearly flawless execution, supported by quarterly outperformance, steadily improving guidance, and positive contract flow.

Adding the $23.62 projection to the mid-October lows puts AMPX above $31, with an accelerating timeline to reach that level. As it stands, the bull case puts this market at the target level by mid-2027, and analyst trends are leading to it. MarketBeat data reveals increasing coverage, a strengthening Moderate Buy rating among 13 tracked analysts, and more than 170% upside to the consensus. Consensus remains below $22, but the trend matters, with high-end targets in the $30 to $33 range, bracketing the Elliott Wave projection.

Institutions remain a critical factor. The group does not own much of this stock yet and sold in early Q4, helping the price downdraft. If they don’t get on board, retail investors will struggle to keep the stock price elevated once a rebound/recovery occurs. The good news is that triggers for institutional buying exist, including executing on its government grant, securing full NDAA compliance, and ramping NDAA-compliant production. The company has secured NDAA-compliant components; now it needs to ramp capacity and capability across its portfolio. Only a portion of its roughly two dozen designs are currently compliant.

Amprius Technologies' $75 million Department of War grant was a game-changer for investors. The move validated government interest, shifting it from speculation to “we definitely want this," and set the stage for a significant capacity ramp in early 2028. The deal aims to refit an existing electric vehicle battery facility to make AMPX cells, targeting 12 million cells annually.