Freeport McMoRan Post-Earnings: Why Good Enough May Finally Be Good Enough

Key Points

• Freeport-McMoRan's second-quarter 2026 earnings showed sharply higher copper and gold prices offsetting lower sales volumes caused by Grasberg's phased restart.
• The Grasberg Block Cave mine ramp-up is progressing toward full production capacity by the end of 2027, reducing long-term operational risk for the company.
• Despite a post-earnings pullback from 52-week highs, FCX shares remain in a broader uptrend supported by rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages and higher analyst price targets.

On July 23, Freeport-McMoRan NYSE: FCX delivered an earnings report shaped by two forces that will define how investors read the quarter.

Copper and gold prices sat at historically elevated levels, lifting realizations across the board. The report also showed the company continues to move toward full production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The mine was closed in 2025 following a mining accident that locked up a significant portion of the company’s production.

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However, FCX was down after the report.

This could be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation. The stock climbed approximately 15% from July 17 through the market's close on July 22.

That suggests a lot of good news was priced into the report, which, by the numbers, was good but maybe not enough to justify FCX at a 52-week high in the short term. 

But in the long term, there are two key factors to consider in analyzing Freeport-McMoRan's earnings.

Freeport Earnings Get a Boost From Higher Copper and Gold Prices

The headline numbers for the second quarter of 2026 show why investors were pushing FCX higher ahead of earnings. Freeport-McMoRan posted second-quarter net income of $984 million, or 68 cents per share, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 74 cents after backing out one-time charges tied to the Grasberg incident. Revenue totaled $7 billion, and the company generated $2 billion in operating cash flow for the quarter.

The real story was pricing:

• The company realized an average of $6.17 per pound for copper in the quarter, up roughly 36% from $4.54 a year ago.

• Gold realizations jumped to $4,520 per ounce from $3,291, a year-over-year (YOY) gain of roughly 37%.

• Molybdenum, often an afterthought in Freeport's story, also strengthened meaningfully, realizing $28.75 per pound versus $21.10 last year.

Copper sales volumes were down significantly year over year (710 million pounds versus 1.0 billion), a direct consequence of Grasberg's phased restart. In other words, FCX is earning more money while selling less copper. That dynamic won't repeat itself once Grasberg volumes normalize, which is worth keeping in mind when projecting forward growth rates.

Grasberg Mine Ramp-Up Strengthens Freeport's Long-Term Outlook

The other half of the bull case is de-risking, not just pricing. Freeport confirmed that its Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up met expectations in the second quarter, with mining rates climbing from 34,000 tons per day in April to 69,000 tons per day in June. Management now expects PTFI's overall production capacity to reach roughly 65% in the second half of 2026, 80% by mid-2027, and near full capacity by the end of 2027.

That timeline also explains why unit net cash costs in Indonesia remain negative. PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) reported unit net cash credits of 81 cents per pound of copper in the quarter, meaning by-product gold credits more than offset production costs. As volumes recover, that credit dynamic should provide a continued tailwind to consolidated margins even if copper prices cool off from current levels.

Freeport Maintains Strong Balance Sheet While Returning Capital

Freeport also used the quarter to reinforce its capital discipline story. The company returned $600 million to shareholders in the first half of 2026, including $200 million in share repurchases, and separately increased its ownership stake in the Cerro Verde mine to 55.66% for roughly $107 million.

Net debt stood at just $2.1 billion (excluding downstream processing debt), well below the company's $3–$4 billion target ceiling. That balance sheet flexibility is part of why analysts have been comfortable raising price targets even as the stock notches new highs. The company is showing its ability to keep funding both shareholder returns and its growth pipeline (Bagdad, El Abra, Kucing Liar) without straining its investment-grade rating.

Is the Post-Earnings Pullback a Buying Opportunity?

Turning to the technical picture, FCX spent most of 2025 consolidating in the low-$40s before staging a sustained breakout beginning in December, eventually pushing to a 52-week high near $72 in June. The pullback since then, including the post-earnings drop to around $63, has brought shares back toward both the 50-day moving average (about $64) and the lower end of the recent trading range, without breaking the broader uptrend.

Notably, the 200-day moving average has been rising steadily since bottoming near $40 late last year, now sitting at about $56—a sign that the medium-term trend remains constructive even after the post-earnings dip. Volume on the down day was elevated but not dramatically outsized relative to recent sessions, which is consistent with profit-taking after a steep run-up rather than a fundamental reassessment of the story.

Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock Still a Buy After Earnings?

One problem with pricing FCX is that the company’s current strong growth is an outlier for two reasons. First, the spot prices of copper and gold are at historically elevated levels. Second, the company is just now reporting production from its Grasberg mine that had been closed. That skews the year-over-year comparisons.

Both variables are likely to support strong earnings and free cash flow growth, which are two of the best predictors of stock price growth. But many traditional discounted cash flow models suggest more modest growth.

That said, the structural case for copper demand remains in place. Price is starting to follow that demand. The same is true of gold.

It will take another earnings report or two to see if that demand is priced into FCX. For now, the stock is trading in a defined range. But a rising 50- and 200-day simple moving average shows that investors have been willing to let the stock grind higher.

Leading into the report, analysts raised their price targets for FCX, with the highest price targets coming in at $80. With the Grasberg project moving towards full production by the end of 2027, the current stock price may create an attractive entry point.