The Bull Case for D-Wave After a Disappointing Earnings Season

Key Points

• D-Wave Quantum missed Q2 2026 earnings and revenue expectations, yet its stock has risen roughly 20% over the past month.
• Bookings surged 1,120% to $35.5 million in the first half of 2026, and backlog rose 668% to $40.7 million, signaling potential future revenue.
• Despite disappointing headline results, growing commercial customer counts and rising production-application usage suggest deeper quantum computing adoption is underway.

The tail end of the summer may be giving investors in quantum computing a bit of whiplash. On the one hand, D-Wave Quantum Inc. NASDAQ: QBTS delivered one of the more underwhelming Q2 2026 earnings reports, missing on both earnings and revenue, with sales growth seemingly grinding to a halt while competitors saw healthy acceleration.

On the other hand, shares of QBTS are up about 20% in the last month, perhaps the first sign of a recovery after a multi-month decline that has been ongoing since May. Short interest in the stock is up, but only to about 1.3% of the float over the past month.

Despite missing expectations and appearing to fall behind the pack in its last earnings, there is nonetheless a compelling bull case for D-Wave going forward—based on the company's strong potential to convert contracted projects into realized revenue, its capacity to build bookings, its rising backlog, and more.

All of these factors could combine to justify Wall Street's continued enthusiasm and the impressive 90% predicted upside for QBTS stock.

Looking Beyond the Sales Slump

D-Wave's Q2 sales slump is, on the surface, discouraging—particularly given that rivals like IonQ Inc. NYSE: IONQ posted strong growth in this area in their recent reports. However, there are signs beyond revenue that D-Wave's commercial adoption may be poised to take off.

Commercial revenues represented some 62% of revenue for the quarter, an increase of 45% compared to the prior-year quarter. The company is also generating its revenue from more customers—over 100 in the first half of the year—which is an important development for a firm and industry that has traditionally relied heavily on a small number of lucrative contracts to fuel bottom lines.

Crucially, customers are moving beyond experimentation with quantum tech. Production applications accounted for more than 37% of D-Wave's quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) revenue in the first half of 2026, nearly quadruple their share of those sales in the first half of 2025. This could be an indication that clients are more thoroughly integrating quantum computing into their day-to-day operations.

Bookings and Backlog May Be a Hidden Measure of Success

Perhaps the strongest argument that investors should not write D-Wave off just yet is the company's strong customer demand, as evidenced by its bookings. While much of this demand has not yet translated to realized revenue, the firm noted 59% year over year (YOY) improvement in its quarterly bookings. Looking at the entire first half of the year, bookings were up a stratospheric 1,120% to $35.5 million.

Yes, more than half of that latter figure is due to a single annealing system sale to Florida Atlantic University—though a good portion of that contract has not yet been recognized as revenue in a quarterly earnings report owing to the lengthy delivery, installation, and testing process. This, however, gives investors a glimpse of future earnings, with the anticipation that the majority of that contract—and others—will show up in future revenue figures.

Looking at D-Wave's backlog also gives the impression that momentum is building in key areas. The firm's remaining performance obligations (RPO) suggest that future revenue could be much higher than recent results would indicate. As of the end of June 2026, D-Wave's RPO stood at $40.7 million, a massive 668% up from the same figure one year earlier. If the expected 57% of that backlog converts to revenue in the coming year, investors may look ahead to a major sales boost.

A Reminder of the Risks

The quantum race is continuing at breakneck speed, and despite the potential suggested by some details in D-Wave's recent earnings report, investors should keep in mind the risks. The industry may be stratifying into top performers, middling firms, and up-and-coming stars, and there is always the threat posed by major legacy tech companies as well.

D-Wave's earnings were a disappointment, with revenue coming in below expectations, losses appearing wider than analysts had predicted, and investors reminded that quarterly results are lumpy and unpredictable. Beyond that, quantum as an industry remains speculative, as none of the firms has achieved widespread commercial adoption yet.

D-Wave's technology is compelling, and its poor revenue performance may not reflect the real momentum that is building among customers. However, the company still very much faces an uphill battle if it is to lead the quantum industry in its efforts to revolutionize computing across the board.

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