Packaging Corporation of America Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 25, 2021

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q3 adjusted net income was $257 M or $2.69 per share versus $149 M or $1.57 a year ago, with EBITDA rising to $464 M from $323 M.
  • Positive Sentiment: Packaging segment hit a record 26% EBITDA margin (up from 22%), driven by all‐time high containerboard and corrugated shipments and implemented price increases.
  • Negative Sentiment: Operating costs increased by $0.84 per share year-over-year due to inflation in labor, benefits, recycled fiber, converting, plus $0.23 on freight and logistics.
  • Positive Sentiment: PCA agreed to buy Advanced Packaging Corp’s 500,000 sq ft Grand Rapids box plant, adding ~80,000 tons of integration and expected to be immediately accretive.
  • Negative Sentiment: Q4 EPS guidance of $2.04 (down from $2.69) reflects three fewer shipping days, a scheduled mill outage, and higher energy, wood, and freight costs.
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Earnings Conference Call
Packaging Corporation of America Q3 2021
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Operator

Thank you for joining Packaging Corporation of America's third quarter 2021 earnings results conference call. Your host today will be Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of PCA. Upon conclusion of his narrative, there will be a Q&A session. I will now turn the conference call over to Mr. Kowlzan, and please proceed when you are ready.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, everyone. Again, thank you for participating in Packaging Corporation of America's third quarter 2021 earnings release conference call. I am Mark Kowlzan, Chairman and CEO of PCA. With me on the call today is Tom Hassfurther, the Executive Vice President who runs the packaging business, and Bob Mundy, our Chief Financial Officer. I'll begin the call with an overview of the third quarter results, and then I will be turning the call over to Tom, and Bob will provide more details. After that, I'll wrap things up, and we'd be glad to take any questions. Yesterday, we reported third quarter net income of $251 million or $2.63 per share.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Excluding the special items, Q3 2021 net income was $257 million or $2.69 per share, compared to thrid quarter 2020 net income of $149 million or $1.57 per share. Third quarter net sales were $2 billion in 2021 and $1.7 billion in 2020. Total company EBITDA for the third quarter, excluding the special items, was $464 million in 2021 and $323 million in 2020.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Third quarter net income included special items expenses of $0.06 per share, primarily for certain costs at the Jackson, Alabama Mill, for paper to containerboard conversion-related activities, while last year's third quarter net income included special items expenses of $0.11 per share that were related primarily to the impact of Hurricane Laura, on the DeRidder, Louisiana mill. Details of all the special items for the third quarter of 2021 were included in the schedules that accompanied the earnings press release.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Excluding the special items, the $1.12 per share increase in third quarter 2021 earnings compared to the third quarter of 2020 was driven primarily by higher prices and mix of $1.58 and volume $0.62 in our Packaging Segment, higher production volume of $0.06, and prices and mix of $0.05 in our Paper Segment, and lower non-operating pension expense $0.03, and lower interest expense $0.01. The items were partially offset by operating costs, which were $0.84 per share higher, primarily due to inflation-related increases, particularly in the areas of labor and benefits expenses, recycled fiber costs, energy, repairs, materials, and supplies, as well as several other indirect and fixed cost areas. We also had inflation-related increases in our converting costs, which were $0.10 per share higher.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

For the last several quarters, freight and logistics costs have risen and were $0.23 per share higher compared to last year, driven by significant increases in fuel costs, tight truck supply, driver shortages, and a higher mix of spot pricing to keep up with box demand. Finally, scheduled outage expenses were $0.04 per share higher than last year, and sales volume in our paper segment was lower by $0.02 per share. Looking at the packaging business, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter of 2021 of $467 million with sales of $1.8 billion, resulted in a margin of 26% versus last year's EBITDA of $324 million with sales of $1.5 billion and a 22% margin.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging segment demand remained strong, and the teams did a tremendous job of implementing our previously announced containerboard and corrugated products price increases. The containerboard mills set an all-time quarterly sales volume record, and our box plants set new third quarter records for total corrugated product shipments as well as shipments per day. By utilizing the capability of both machines at our Jackson, Alabama mill to produce containerboard, we were able to reach our desired inventory levels to better serve our customer demand, help minimize the transportation challenges we continue to experience, and build some inventory ahead of the DeRidder mill's fourth quarter outage. We managed very effectively the execution of numerous initiatives and capital projects to reduce costs through efficiency, productivity, and optimization improvements across our manufacturing locations.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

We continue to put tremendous effort into managing certain material, equipment, and labor availability issues to keep our customers supplied in their needs and their capital projects on track. With no relief from the supply chain obstacles that we, our customers, and our suppliers continue to face, along with unprecedented inflation-related challenges, the combination of all of these efforts are critical to our success going forward. The improvements in execution our employees deliver constantly across many fronts is what allows us to continuously improve margins. After successfully completing the planned maintenance outage at the Jackson Mill during the third quarter, the mill restarted with the No. 1 machine making corrugated medium rather than uncoated free sheet grades, utilizing a mix of virgin kraft and DLK fiber based on the needs of our customers.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

This was required to help meet continued strong demand from our box plant customers, meet our targeted inventory levels prior to year-end, and help supply the needs of our box plant acquisition that we anticipate acquiring later this quarter. Similar to the No. 3 machine at Jackson, the smaller No. 1 machine is highly efficient. It's a versatile machine, and with minimal capital required to repurpose a deinking plant to handle DLK. The machine was very quickly able to produce high-quality medium for the box plants. Although still capable of producing uncoated free sheet products, we plan to continue producing medium on the machine over the next several months as our internal and external packaging demands warrants.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

This gives us the opportunity to further evaluate the machine's capabilities and to process changes that might be required to potentially produce medium permanently in a cost-effective manner. We'll also use the period to further refine our estimates and assumptions to fully understand the potential of the entire mill to produce containerboard on both machines at their optimal cost and quality. This will also allow us to evaluate our strategic containerboard supply capabilities for providing the necessary runway to grow our integrated downstream box demand. We're committed to being fully integrated, and we have a track record of ramping up our internal capacity according to our customers' demand requirements. The previously announced conversion of the J3 machine to linerboard remains on track with no changes to the schedule we discussed on last quarter's call.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

We'll continue to serve our paper customers with both machines at our International Falls mill, which is capable of producing all of Jackson's paper grades, as well as available inventory produced on the No. 1 machine at Jackson. I'll now turn it over to Tom, who'll provide further details on containerboard sales, our corrugated business, and the box plant acquisition that I mentioned.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Thank you, Mark. We continue to get excellent realization from the implementation of our previously announced price increases across all product lines. Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices blended were $1.40 per MSF above the third quarter of 2020, and up $0.55 per MSF compared to the second quarter of 2021. Export containerboard prices were up $0.18 per MSF compared to the third quarter of 2020, and up $0.06 per MSF compared to the second quarter of 2021. As Mark mentioned, we achieved a new all-time record for containerboard shipments with continued strong demand in our box plants, as well as our domestic and export containerboard markets. We had record third quarter corrugated products shipments, which were up 2.3% in total and per workday over last year's very strong third quarter.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Through the first three quarters of 2021, our box shipment volume is up 6.7% on a per-day basis versus the industry being up 4.5%. In addition to supplying the record internal needs of our box plants, our outside sales volume of containerboard was 73,000 tons above last year's third quarter and 37,000 tons higher than the second quarter of 2021. Regarding our third quarter demand and our outlook, I'd like to reemphasize some points I made on previous earnings calls and what Mark alluded to earlier. The same issues that impact our ability to get more volume out of our box plants, like labor shortages, truck availability, driver shortages, raw material availability issues, and supply chain bottlenecks also persist with our customers. They are telling us they have higher demand and could ship more if not for these issues.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

There is no doubt we view demand as strong, and we expect this to continue even with the economic obstacles most companies are facing. Keep in mind, the fourth quarter will have three less shipping days than the third, and fourth quarter comparisons will be against last year's all-time quarterly record for the industry. Regarding the box plant acquisition Mark mentioned, last week, we entered into a definitive agreement to acquire substantially all of the assets of Advanced Packaging Corporation, an independent corrugated products producer, in a cash-free transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, PCA will acquire a modern full-line, 500,000 sq ft corrugated products facility located in Grand Rapids, Michigan. The transaction is structured as a purchase of assets, resulting in a full step up of the assets to fair market value.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

This acquisition is consistent with one of the key strategic focus areas we have discussed many times regarding increasing our vertical integration of containerboard through organic box volume growth and strategic box plant acquisitions. After completion of the acquisition, our containerboard integration is expected to increase by almost 80,000 tons. This also will allow for further optimization and enhancement of our mill capacity and box plant operations, as well as other benefits and synergies that we expect to begin realizing soon after closing. Although we won't get into financial details at this point, we expect the acquisition to be accretive to earnings immediately with a bottom-line purchase price multiple similar to the average of our last four acquisitions.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Closing, subject to certain customary conditions and regulatory approval, is expected later this quarter, and we will finance the transaction with available cash on hand. Advanced Packaging is a well-capitalized full service provider of corrugated packaging products, including high-end graphics, retail displays, sustainable shipping containers, and protective packaging. They utilize state-of-the-art technology, structural and graphic design, and engineering capabilities, and an ISTA-certified test laboratory to provide customers a solution for nearly any packaging need. With a commitment to continuous improvement, innovation, and safety in their operations, Advanced Packaging is a great strategic fit for PCA and our culture, with an excellent management team, highly skilled and dedicated employees, and an outstanding reputation in the marketplace. I'll now turn it back to Mark.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Thanks, Tom. Looking at the Paper segment, EBITDA, excluding special items in the third quarter, was $18 million with sales of $150 million or a 12% margin, compared to third quarter 2020 EBITDA of $17 million and sales of $178 million or a 9% margin. Prices and mix were up 4% from last year's third quarter and also moved 4% higher from the second and into the third quarter of 2021 as we continued to implement our previously announced price increases. As we mentioned last quarter, with finished goods inventory now at optimal levels for the paper business, sales volume, which was 19% below last year's level, is fairly reflective of our production capability.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

As I said earlier, while the Jackson No. 1 machine is running medium, we'll continue to service our paper customers' needs from both of the International Falls machines, which are capable of producing all of the Jackson paper grades. While we've maintained our capability to produce uncoated free sheet on both machines at Jackson, we'll continue to monitor market conditions and run our paper system accordingly. With that, I'll turn it over to Bob.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

Thanks, Mark. Cash provided by operations during the quarter totaled $284 million with free cash flow of $134 million. The primary payments of cash during the quarter included capital expenditures of $150 million, common stock dividends total $95 million, $68 million for federal and state income tax payments, pension and other post-employment benefit contributions of $51 million, and net interest payments of $7 million. During the third quarter, we issued $700 million of 30-year, 3.05% notes and used the proceeds from these notes to redeem our 4.5%, $700 million, 2023 notes in early October.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

This transaction will lower our average annual cash interest rate from 3.8%-3.4%, lower our annual interest expense by $11 million per year, and extend our average debt maturity from eight and a half years to 16.3 years. Based on the timing of closing the new bonds in September and the redemption of the old bonds occurring in October, our quarter-end cash on hand balance included the new bond proceeds. Excluding this transaction, our quarter-end cash on hand balance was just over $1 billion, or $1.2 billion, including marketable securities, with liquidity at September 30th of $1.5 billion. Our planned annual maintenance expense for the quarter is still expected to be about $0.41 per share or about $0.06 per share, primarily due to the DeRidder mill outage.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

This will result in a negative impact of $0.25 per share moving from the third quarter to the fourth quarter and $0.18 per share higher than last year's fourth quarter. Finally, as Mark mentioned previously, we continue to put tremendous effort into managing certain material, equipment, and labor availability issues to keep our capital projects on track. While we're managing to keep the key milestones of our more significant projects on schedule, our capital spending across the entire company is now expected to come in below the range we provided previously. We currently expect to end the year with total capital spending around $550 million. I'll now turn it back to Mark.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Thank you, Bob. Looking ahead as we move from the third into the fourth quarter, we'll continue to implement our previously announced price increases for domestic containerboard, corrugated packaging, and paper, and we'll also expect average export containerboard prices to move higher. Packaging segment volume will be lower due to three less shipping days as well as the scheduled outage at our DeRidder mill, and paper segment volume will be lower as the Jackson mill is not expected to produce any paper grades. With higher energy prices and anticipated colder weather, energy costs will increase. Wood costs, especially in our southern mill system, will be higher due to the previous wet weather. Low inventory and high demand will also impact wood. We also expect inflation to continue with most of the other operating converting costs, along with higher freight and logistics expenses.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Lastly, as Bob mentioned, we expect scheduled outage costs to be approximately $0.25 per share higher than the third quarter. Considering these items, we expect fourth quarter earnings of $2.04 per share. With that, we'd be happy to entertain any questions, but I must remind you that some of the statements we've made on the call constitute forward-looking statements. The statements were based on current estimates, expectations, and projections of the company and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including the direction of the economy and those identified as risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K and in subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. With that, Josh, I would like to open up the call for questions, please.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile a Q&A roster.

Operator

Our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. You may proceed with your question.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, good morning. It's actually John Babcock on the line for George. You know, the first question I just wanted to touch on, you know, I was wondering, it looks like your price realizations in Q3 were a bit higher than we had expected. You know, I was just wondering, you know, especially given that, given the timing of the last increase, you know, obviously, you know, primarily in August, you know, I was just wondering, you know, if you might be able to, you know, kind of comment on how much realization you had in the quarter, you know, from that August increase.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Tom, why don't you go ahead with that one?

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. Well, you know, keep in mind, the third quarter included, you know, some bleed in from the second increase, plus the timing of the third increase. Nothing really has changed in our timing. You know, we typically roll these in over a 90-day period. In this particular case, given the timing, yes, we probably did realize a little bit more in the third quarter for this particular increase.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay, great. Could you provide some color on how the early 4Q bookings look so far?

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

The bookings are coming in right now about flat to a year ago, but keep in mind, a year ago, we were up 13%. I think we're off to a very good start in the fourth quarter and maintaining volume levels, you know, that were exorbitantly high last fourth quarter.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Bank of America

All right, great. Last question before I turn it over. I was just wondering if you could talk about the impact that labor and supply chain shortages have had on your demand and inventory trends.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Well, you know, it's hard to put it in exact numbers. You know, as I said, demand remains very good and very strong. However, you know, a lot of our customers along with ourselves are suffering from, you know, what really is an American commerce issue related to labor, transportation, you know, supply chain issues, et cetera. It's a mixed bag. I mean, we've got some segments of our customer base who are more impacted by materials or chemicals or resins or whatever the case might be, as well as the labor issue. We, of course, as I mentioned, are suffering from many of the same things.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

You know, even some of our suppliers have indicated that they're concerned about their ability to keep up with our demand. You know, it's something that's going on across the entire American landscape, as well as, quite frankly, the global landscape.

John Babcock
John Babcock
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay. Thank you.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

John Dunigan
John Dunigan
VP of Equity Research at Jefferies

Hi, this is John Dunigan on for Phil. Hope you're all doing well. I was wondering if you could comment on how much medium the J1 mill can produce per year now, and how much uncoated free sheet you produced on the mill either in 2020 or just first half of this year. You noted, Mark, that there would be maybe some further investments required to permanently produce the medium on the J1, and possibly make it more efficient. Could you just provide a little bit more color on that and maybe discuss if there's any more increase in medium capacity after those investments if you do decide to do it?

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. You know, currently on an annualized basis with what we're doing on J1, it's capable of producing about 100,000 tons a year of medium, in that range based on the fiber availability we have with the DLK that we have, and then the balance of the kraft fiber. We've obviously, as we've done many times, studied these things years in advance. We have a pretty good idea of what we would do under different circumstances if we chose to ramp the machine up in the future.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

I think as I said earlier on the call, the fact that we're actually running medium right now is a really good opportunity for us to study all of the unit operations around the paper machine within the mill system to look at the entire balance of the mill and how it would play out in the future with the work we're doing on J3 machine, and where ultimately the Jackson Mill goes in terms of producing containerboard. Right now, we also mentioned we have not given up the capability to produce paper on either machine. The J3 machine, once it undergoes its outage next spring, will not be able to go back to paper after that.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

The J1 machine remains a flexible machine, and we'll just look at our market opportunities and utilize that machine as it is. Again, the machine is an extremely highly efficient, very good quality machine, and has a lot of opportunity to help us provide our future needs for our customers as we grow with our box blank customers in the future. I'm not gonna talk about capital estimates. Again, it's I consider that more of a proprietary situation.

John Dunigan
John Dunigan
VP of Equity Research at Jefferies

Understood. Appreciate the details. One more, just if you could maybe talk about what percentage of your energy is produced internally, obviously recognizing that you're a lot more virgin-based than some of your peers. Maybe give us some idea of how exposed you are to nat gas and if you have any hedges in place or you know typically implement.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

You know, I don't have the current numbers. If you think about traditionally, you know, we're in that, you know, in somewhere around 70% if you include black liquor and wood waste within a mill, and that's traditionally what you're gonna see in the industry with a fully integrated mill, that's got black liquor and wood waste capability with combination boilers. Natural gas obviously is the big play that the country is seeing right now and quite frankly, the world. We're exposed to that also. Bob, do you wanna add any color on the natural gas piece? Again, it's, you know, it's not a lot to add except, you know, that it is impacting us.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

No, you know, it's just a big number going from the third quarter to fourth quarter.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

I'm sorry, it's a big number going from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Obviously it's, you know, probably close to $0.10 hit. It's primarily, you know, due to prices that everyone's aware of. You also have an impact from the seasonal aspect from the, you know, colder months in the latter part of the year.

John Dunigan
John Dunigan
VP of Equity Research at Jefferies

Understood. Okay. Thank you very much.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

All right. Thanks, John. Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. You may proceed with your question.

Analyst at Truist Securities

Good morning, guys. This is [Alex Langston] sitting in for Mike Roxland this morning. Just a quick question on virgin wood costs. You know, given the wet weather and the lack of transportation or increase in costs around transportation, you noted on your last call in 2Q that you haven't been able to start your winter wood build yet. Have you made any progress over 3Q? And if you can quantify it, where do your inventory stand right now, and how much more are you paying relative to last year? Thanks so much.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

I think we're seeing some relief in the Louisiana and the Mississippi, Tennessee wood basin right now compared to where we were this summer. The southeast in particular, Georgia, Florida, southern Alabama wood baskets remain under pressure from the wet weather and also the demand because of that. The winter wood build has proceeded a lot better than I had hoped in the Louisiana and at our Counce mill in Tennessee. We're nowhere near where we want to be or should be at this time of year, but we're much improved from where we were three months ago. Again, Valdosta as an example and Jackson Mill as an example have a ways to go.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Again, there's a lot of competition in those wood baskets, but I'm not going to get into the actual numbers except to say that it's been a long time since I've seen the entire system in the southern states under this much pressure at this time of year.

Analyst at Truist Securities

Great. Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research. You may proceed with your question.

Mark Weintraub
Mark Weintraub
Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research

Thank you. First, just on the Jackson Mill, is there any more color or help you can give us as to where the mill is now from a kind of a total production versus what you've laid out? Maybe we'll keep the J3, the smaller machine, to the side right now. How much incremental production when you move forward on the project you might get? Also, I know you had high costs initially. Where are you in terms of getting the costs relative to where they eventually can get? Any color there would be very appreciated.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. I think, you know, we've talked all along about the J3 machine in terms of supplying what we needed and trying to balance the input costs because they were higher. On an annualized basis, the J3 machine's been producing 400,000 tons, which is a good number if you want to. Probably about 100,000 tons a quarter, give or take. That's probably a good number to use for your math. If you wanna add the annualized production of No. 1 machine, that would be 100,000 tons. Again, on an annualized basis, Jackson's producing 500,000 tons of containerboard now, at the mill. Again, I'm not gonna get into specific costs.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

We have reduced in a very appropriate manner the cost that we can control with the unit operations that we have to work with. The big cost takeout will come next spring as we do the really big phase work on the machine conversion and get the productivity up significantly. When that improvement is made, you'll see a rather big step change in cost reduction. Then the final step change will come, and the final phase the following year when we finish up the work on J3. Now, again, as we look at J1 and we understand what that would imply, it depends on how much medium you would need in the future.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

This goes back to what we said for the better part of the last decade and a half. You can convert anything to do anything, but there's a capital price for it. On an incremental cost, you know, if we're producing 100,000 tons today with appropriate capital, we could supply significant amount of incremental medium off of that machine in future years if we chose to spend the capital. I look at Jackson as a tremendous opportunity. We've said this before. When the work is done on J3, the Jackson machine, appropriately will be in the category of about a 700,000-ton-a-year machine-capable asset in the next few years.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Then that would leave the No. 1 machine to balance out our growth opportunity in the box plant system. So if we're producing 100,000 tons on an annual basis today, and you assume you ramp that up, the Jackson Mill becomes a significant containerboard producer if we so choose to, and we grow with our demand. It has very good opportunity to be one of our low-cost mills over the future years with the appropriate capital.

Mark Weintraub
Mark Weintraub
Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research

Great. That's very helpful. Just shifting gears, just trying to understand the bridging from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Obviously, you had a very good third quarter relative to your initial expectations and everybody else's. In the fourth quarter, you basically are pointing to like a $0.65 reduction in earnings. You called out the $0.25 from maintenance. I think, Bob, you mentioned like $0.10 specific to energy. There were a number of other costs, the wood, freight, et cetera. Yeah, at the same time, I guess I would have thought you still would have been getting some more pricing from the August containerboard flowing into boxes.

Mark Weintraub
Mark Weintraub
Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research

Is there any kind of additional help you can give us to understand why whether it'd be as much of a decline, 4Q versus 3Q? I assume it's mostly costs. To the extent that it is there a way you can help us parse how much of that might be a seasonal impact, especially in this unusual environment, and so that there's the likelihood of recovery as we get into more seasonally favorable periods versus what may be more systemic changes that one's gotta keep an eye on?

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah, Mark, this is Bob. You know, as you know, third quarter to fourth quarter is always a negative movement sequentially. It's just going back probably as far as you wanna look. A lot of that has to do with some of the seasonal things you see going on with wood energy and some other items. You know, what's happening this quarter, yes, we are certainly getting additional price improvement or we expect to from the previously announced price increases in the Packaging segment.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

We also have a, you know, the volume situation is, you know, not as, you know, it's a little bit more unfavorable, primarily, you know, on the mill side of things with the outage at DeRidder, and the fact that, you know, we actually expect our inventories to go down as opposed to build inventory. You always have to consider that inventory change and how that impacts your cost and your cost absorption. Certainly, freight is a bit higher than it normally would be, this time of year.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

In those operating costs, like, you know, I mentioned what was going on with energy, you know, with wood fiber and the things that Mark was speaking to with trying to get inventories where they need to be and competing with others forest products producers that are trying to do the same thing in that part of the country, along with shortages, just trying to get drivers to get wood and bring it to the mill. You know, those costs are up a similar amount to what energy will be.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

We expect to be very busy in the box plants again in the fourth quarter and with what we're already struggling with relative to labor availability, just like most other companies are, you know, paying additional overtime, doing what you have to do to get the volume out of the door. You know, that's higher than normal. Also just overall, repairs and materials, you know, other fixed cost type things. It's I've never seen it quite like this. We talked about the maintenance outages being $0.25 a share negative.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

We have some things relative to this capital spending in our box plants that we hope to bring several projects on board in the fourth quarter, and that results in some non-capital implementation expense that's a little bit higher than normal, but it's for a good reason, obviously. When you net all of those things, Mark, you know, it's you know, you're right, it comes to you know, $0.65, which for us, you know, is certainly not out of line. If you look at the second half of our results, you know, versus the consensus numbers, you know, looks like we'll end up for the year, you know, the second half, you know, $0.25 better than what anyone thought. It's just the timing between the quarters.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

You know, maybe we had, you know, a lot more price appreciation in the third than people were realizing, and there was more of that in the fourth. I'm not sure. That's sorta how we see the sequential numbers moving.

Mark Weintraub
Mark Weintraub
Senior Analyst and Head of Business Development at Seaport Research

Great. Appreciate all the color.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Josephson with KeyBanc. You may proceed with your question.

Adam Josephson
Adam Josephson
Analyst at KeyBanc

Thanks, everyone. Mark, Tom, Bob, good morning, and congratulations on another very good quarter. Bob, just one follow-up on Mark's previous question about the 3Q and the beat versus your guidance $0.32. Can you help us with how much of the third increase you realized, and consequently, how much more you're expecting in the fourth quarter per your guidance?

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

No, I don't think we'll get into that level of detail. I think you just have to think about, you know, what Tom said. You know, certainly I think there was, you know, more than what people were assuming, together with, as you know, we've always done a really good job of executing and bringing that price, you know, to the bottom line as quickly as possible. I think it was just a great effort during the quarter.

Adam Josephson
Adam Josephson
Analyst at KeyBanc

Got it. I appreciate that, Bob. On OCC, whoever wants to take this, can you just talk about, I know you're not a big buyer of it compared to some peers, but what you're expecting in the fourth quarter. I assume you're expecting some decline. I'm just wondering if you're thinking that's just seasonal or there's something more than that, or what you're seeing in the OCC market at the moment.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. I think, you know, on average, Adam, if you look at the average of 3Q versus 4Q, 4Q will be higher. You know, I think because, you know, we're exiting the third quarter, beginning the fourth at a higher cost. Although as the quarter goes on, I think we're, you know, costs look like or the price looks like it will fairly stable, maybe slightly lower. Like I said, on average, it's a headwind, 3Q to 4Q.

Adam Josephson
Adam Josephson
Analyst at KeyBanc

Got it, Bob. Tom, just in terms of what happened in the third quarter, the box demand, I mean, you outgrew the market. Once again, the market was obviously flat. I think that came as a surprise to most people who follow the industry. I know you talked about this, the labor constraints that many of your customers are facing. I mean, do you have reason to think those constraints are gonna go away anytime soon, or is this just you think a feature of this economy now, and we're gonna be dealing with this for a considerable period ahead?

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Well, Adam, as I mentioned to you, it's an American problem, an international problem, you name it. I mean, if I could predict exactly when this was gonna end, you know, I'd probably be doing something different than what I'm doing right now. The fact of the matter is that what makes this so hard to predict right now is the fact that every company's dealing with this, whether it's ours, whether it's our customers, whether it's other industries, whatever the case might be, we're all competing, you know, in a labor market that's incredibly tight. As I said before, I mean, you know, we're also competing with the government here, which makes it even much more difficult.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

You know, there are shortages everywhere, and the demand remains very high. You know, is this gonna end in the short term? Depends on what you determine short term is. I don't see it ending anytime soon. It's gonna continue well into next year. You know, where it settles out, I don't know. The one thing that's been very evident is that the consumer has changed a lot of their habits and, you know, that's been good for our business. That's not gonna change ever again, I don't think. Quite frankly, you know, we've also got customers that have been asking for alternative products to their plastics, which is still a great opportunity for the industry.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

We've had a difficulty being able to address that right now just based on all the other demand. You know, I think when you look at all the trends, it's darn positive going forward.

Adam Josephson
Adam Josephson
Analyst at KeyBanc

Got it. Bob, can you give us any specifics on the acquisition that you announced, sales, purchase price, multiple, et cetera?

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

No, I think as Tom said, you know, we're not getting to the financial details right now. That's all we're, you know, we're gonna talk about on the call today on that.

Adam Josephson
Adam Josephson
Analyst at KeyBanc

Okay. Thank you.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

All right. Next question, please.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. You may proceed with your question.

Anthony Pettinari
Anthony Pettinari
Research Analyst at Citi

Hi, good morning.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Morning.

Anthony Pettinari
Anthony Pettinari
Research Analyst at Citi

When you finish the work at J3 and then maybe factoring in the acquisition, is it possible to say where your integration rate in containerboard can shake out at? Sort of how you would think about that versus maybe an optimal, you know, run rate, integration rate for PCA.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

You know, the easiest way to do it is just assume that we're always going to our goal is always to be fully integrated. How you define fully integrated, you know, for the last number of years, we've always moved some tons to the outside market internationally and domestically, and we will probably do that, you know, going forward. Tom, why don't you add some color?

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. Anthony, I think the way to look at it is this: We're gonna run to demand. We've always told you that. You know, so whatever our integration level is gonna remain essentially the same. There's really, you know, we have additional demand in the export market, but as I've mentioned many times, the domestic market has shrunk so dramatically that, you know, it's not just a matter of just going out and saying, "I can go sell a bunch of people in the domestic market." There is no domestic market to speak of. And those that supply it are gonna stick with what they've got, just like we are sticking with what we have.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

We're not a big player in the export market. We've been dealing with the same customers for decades now, and that's what we intend to do. You know, we will grow into our capabilities, and that's why, as Mark mentioned, we will still have the capability to produce white at the mill. You know, as our paper demand might dictate, we could swing back to that if we needed to. You know, our objective is, as Mark said, remains exactly the same. We will be a fully integrated company.

Anthony Pettinari
Anthony Pettinari
Research Analyst at Citi

Okay. That's very helpful. Then, Tom, you made an interesting comment on plastic substitution and, you know, obviously, probably not the biggest part of your business, and you may not be able to even sort of meet that demand given some of the constraints you and customers are facing. Can you just talk a little bit about, you know, what plastic products customers are looking at substituting out of, or what, you know, customers or end markets these opportunities are cropping up in? Just any kind of general commentary would be helpful.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. I'll just give you an example, real quickly. You know, if you receive apparel in a plastic bag through the e-commerce network, typically those things arrive, and they're pretty nasty and, you know, people, consumers have become alerted to what plastics does to the environment and the lack of recyclability in plastics. They're working on it, but obviously, it's a very low number compared to corrugated, which probably is the best sustainability story in the world, perhaps. So they're looking for conversions, conversion opportunities to get out of that stuff to satisfy really what are consumer demands, even more so than their own demands. That's just one small example of what's going on.

Tom Hassfurther
Tom Hassfurther
EVP at Packaging Corporation of America

All of the companies that sell to consumers have been very alerted to the fact that consumers want a, you know, a recyclable package, a good sustainability story, and they wanna be good stewards of the environment. Consequently, you know, there's gonna be more opportunities going forward for those kinda conversions.

Anthony Pettinari
Anthony Pettinari
Research Analyst at Citi

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Okay, thank you. Next question.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Cleve Rueckert with UBS. You may proceed with your question.

Cleve Rueckert
Cleve Rueckert
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Great. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for the question. Most of mine have been asked and answered. I just wanted to touch quickly sort of on a higher level on costs. We calculated about a 2% sequential decline in packaging costs ex D&A on a per ton basis. Did you get some relief in the quarter? I mean, I know you talked about sort of running more efficiently and you know, maintenance. I'm just wondering sort of more broadly if there were areas.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. Cleve, this is Bob. I'm not sure how you calculate your costs. I mean, our costs actually went up. You know, so I really don't know how to answer that question. You've gotta be careful when you look at costs, if you're taking them at a high level and just, you know, if you're like subtracting EBITDA from sales or whatever you may be doing, you also have to take into consideration, you know, inventory change times that were going on, you know, between the two periods that you're comparing, so you get your denominator right. So, again, I really don't know how to answer because our costs went up.

Cleve Rueckert
Cleve Rueckert
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Okay. Costs up sequentially on a per ton basis.

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yep.

Cleve Rueckert
Cleve Rueckert
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Then just a quick follow-up on containerboard inventories. Sorry if I missed it earlier. Did you say that at the end of the quarter, in the quarter, you got to target, and then you expect to consume some in the fourth quarter? Is that the right read there?

Bob Mundy
Bob Mundy
CFO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yeah. We, you know, we got to what our average is, where we like to be from a weeks of supply basis, sort of our average, what it was for the last five years, if you exclude the record low of September of last year. That's just not a normal situation. We, you know, with the help of the Jackson Mill, obviously, we got to where we wanted to be from a weeks of supply basis, but we have this big DeRidder outage coming up in the fourth quarter. Demand is going to be very strong. Right now on paper, you know, our inventories would actually decline by the time we get to the end of the year.

Cleve Rueckert
Cleve Rueckert
Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at UBS

Right. Okay. Thanks for that color. Appreciate it.

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Thank you. Next question.

Operator

Thank you. And as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone.

Operator

Mr. Kowlzan, I see there are no more questions. Do you have any closing comments?

Mark Kowlzan
Mark Kowlzan
Chairman and CEO at Packaging Corporation of America

Yep. I'd like to thank everybody for joining us today on the call, and I look forward to talking with everybody at the end of January for our full year and fourth quarter call. Stay well, stay safe, and have a nice holiday season.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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