Vulcan Materials Q3 2023 Earnings Report

Vulcan Materials EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.29
• Consensus EPS: $2.19
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.10
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.78

Vulcan Materials Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.19 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.17 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$20.45 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +4.70%

Vulcan Materials Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2023
• Date: 10/26/2023
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, October 26, 2023
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC) (NYSE: VMC) is a U.S.-based producer of construction materials that supplies the building and infrastructure markets. The company’s primary products include construction aggregates such as crushed stone, sand and gravel, as well as asphalt mixes and ready-mixed concrete. These materials are used in a wide range of projects including highways, commercial and residential construction, and public infrastructure.

Vulcan operates an integrated network of quarries, asphalt plants and concrete facilities to produce and deliver materials to contractors, municipalities and private developers. Beyond raw aggregates and mix products, the company offers services related to materials handling and distribution to support large-scale paving and construction projects. Its operations emphasize logistics and regional production to meet local demand for roadway and infrastructure work.

Founded in the early 20th century and headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, Vulcan has grown into one of the larger aggregates producers in the United States with operations across multiple states. The company serves a geographically diverse base of customers, primarily within the U.S., and participates in both public-sector infrastructure programs and private construction markets.

Vulcan’s corporate organization includes an executive management team and board of directors responsible for operational oversight, capital allocation and safety and environmental compliance. The company’s strategy historically has combined organic investment in production capacity with targeted acquisitions and asset optimization to support long-term demand for construction materials tied to transportation and development projects.

Vulcan Materials Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Surpassed the $9/ton cash gross profit goal on a trailing 12-month basis and set a new target of $11-12/ton to further boost free cash flow.
• Generated $602 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q3, a 19% year-over-year increase, with average selling prices up 15% across all geographies.
• Aggregates shipments declined 2% in Q3 due to residential softness, while large non-residential and infrastructure projects drove volume gains.
• Raised 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.95–2.0 billion (>20% growth), achieved net debt/EBITDA leverage of 1.8x and invested $411 million in CapEx year-to-date.
• Reclassified Texas Concrete assets as held for sale and recorded a $28 million pre-tax impairment charge to adjust carrying value to fair value.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning. Welcome everyone to the Vulcan Materials Company Q3 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Angela, and I will be your conference call coordinator today. Please be reminded that today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay later today at the company's website. All lines have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the company's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Now, I will turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mark Warren, Vice President of Investor Relations for Vulcan Materials. Mr. Warren, you may begin.

[Mark Warren, VP of Investor Relations at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO, and Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted to our website, vulcanmaterials.com. Please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, our supplemental presentation, and other SEC filings. During the Q&A, we ask that you limit your participation to one question. This will allow us to accommodate as many as possible during the time we have available. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you, Mark, and thank all of you for joining our call this morning. In September, we officially surpassed our prior goal of $9 per ton cash gross profit on a trailing twelve-month basis, and that was before reaching the 230 million on the same store basis, and despite macro challenges over the past four years, that none of us likely anticipated back in the fall of 2019, when we initially set that target. This accomplishment perfectly demonstrates the durability of our aggregates-led business, and I'm really proud of how our teams continue to execute at a high level. Compounding profitability through the solid execution of our Vulcan Way of Selling and Vulcan Way of Operating strategic disciplines is at the core of who we are across our coast-to-coast footprint.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Today, our teams are intensely focused on our new target of $11-$12 of cash gross profit per ton. Cash gross profit per ton growth is key to increasing our free cash flow and continuing to create value for our shareholders. In the quarter, we generated $602 million of Adjusted EBITDA, which is a 19% improvement over the prior year. Our aggregates, asphalt, and concrete product lines all posted another quarter gross margin improvement. In the aggregate segment, gross margin expanded by 200 basis points, and cash gross profit per ton improved by 18%. Shipments declined 2% in the quarter, with variations across end uses and geographies.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Residential weakness impacted the majority of our markets, while at the same time, non-residential construction activity related to large industrial and manufacturing projects continued to drive healthy volume growth, particularly in Georgia and the Carolinas. Remember, pricing momentum continued across our footprint, with all geographies achieving healthy year-over-year increases. Average selling prices improved 15% in the quarter, and asphalt gross margin improved 650 basis points. Shipments increased 11% across most geographies with particular strength, 50% benefiting from lower liquid asphalt costs and solid manufacturing cost control. Concrete gross margin improved 120 basis points, grew by over 30%, despite lower volume that continued to be impacted by the slowdown in residential construction activity. Remember, prior year concrete segment earnings benefited from the contribution of the now-divested New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania concrete operations.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Through the first nine months of the year, we have executed well including macro dynamics. Let me comment briefly on what we're currently seeing in each end use. Starting with residential, we're encouraged by the recent growth in single-family permits and starts in many geographies over the last three months. On the other hand, after providing some support for overall residential demand, multifamily starts have now begun to pull back from historically high levels. Affordability and higher margin mortgage rates are likely to continue to have some impact on residential activity, but the underlying fundamentals remain firmly in place. Vulcan markets have low housing inventory levels and favorable demographics, driving the need for additional housing. In private, non-residential construction, trends differ across categories. As expected, warehouse activity, the largest non-res category, has softened, but manufacturing activity remains at high levels and is concentrated in Vulcan states.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

We have booked and are shipping on numerous large manufacturing projects, where we offer customers a differentiated solution with our advanced footprint and logistics capabilities. On the public side, leading indicators remain supportive of continued growth in both highway and infrastructure. Trailing twelve-month highway starts are up 18%, and 2024 state budgets are at record levels. We continue to expect accelerating growth in public construction activity into next year and continued growth for the next several years. Our nimble sales and operating teams are well prepared to deliver value for our customers in any demand environment and to continue to improve unit profitability and drive value for our shareholders. Now I'll turn the call over to Mary Andrews for some additional commentary on our Q3 performance and upgraded 2023 outlook. Mary Andrews?

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thanks, Tom, and good morning. Over the last 12 months, we have improved our Adjusted EBITDA margin by 220 basis points, posted a 97% free cash flow conversion ratio before our strategic reserve purchases, returned $275 million to shareholders via dividends and repurchases, improved our return on invested capital by 180 basis points, and reduced our net debt to Adjusted EBITDA leverage to 1.8 times. Our robust operational performance that Tom highlighted, coupled with our sound capital allocation and strong balance sheet, position us well for continued success on our strategic objectives of further enhancing our core and expanding our reach. As part of our ongoing portfolio optimization, we are currently working to finalize an agreement for the disposition of our Texas concrete assets.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

As a result, during the quarter, we classified these assets as held for sale and recorded a $28 million pre-tax charge to adjust the carrying value to fair value. During the first nine months, we have invested $411 million in maintenance and growth capital. We continue to expect to spend between $600 million and $650 million on maintenance and growth capital and $200 million on strategic reserve purchases for the full year. Year to date, our SG&A expenses have increased a modest 3% and improved by 30 basis points as a percentage of revenue. Year-over-year increases are due mostly to higher incentive accruals, congruent with improved earnings. Our investments in talent and technology to support our business objectives are paying off in operational results.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

After another quarter of strong operational execution and financial results, we now expect to achieve between $1.95 billion and $2 billion of Adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2023, a greater than 20% improvement versus the prior year at the midpoint. We plan on carrying this strong momentum into next year. So I'll now turn the call back over to Tom to provide some initial commentary on 2024 and a few closing remarks.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you, Mary Andrews. While we're still finalizing our operating plans for 2024, let me offer some early commentary on our expectations, and I'll start with the two things I'm most confident in regarding 2024. First, aggregates pricing momentum. For the last seven quarters, aggregate prices have exceeded historical norms, and the pricing environment remains quite positive. Our Vulcan Way of Selling is driving our commercial execution. We expect prices to improve at least high single digits in 2024. Second, public demand. We are confident in growing public demand, supported by the recent growth in contract award activity and healthy state DOT budgets for 2024. We expect public construction activity to accelerate next year. Now, there's more uncertainty regarding the impact of the macroeconomic environment on private demand that makes it, frankly, a little bit too early to call.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

While current trends in single-family residential activity are positive, uncertainty remains as to how higher rates and affordability challenges may impact that sector overall and influence whether or not it returns to growth next year. In private, non-residential demand, similar uncertainties exist as to how a higher rate environment could impact the sector overall. Additionally, if warehouse activity continues to pull back from the recent historical high levels, it may further mask the current strength in manufacturing activity and will be a key driver of the decline, the degree of decline in non-residential demand. We'll give you an update in February as to how we see these dynamics unfolding and what that means for aggregate shipments in 2024. I am confident that our teams are well equipped to deliver unit profitability growth in any macro environment, and they have a proven track record of doing so.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Over the last 12 months, even in the face of a volatile macro backdrop and lower aggregate shipments, our average cash gross profit per ton has expanded by 18%, and our Adjusted EBITDA has improved 17%. As we work to finish this year strong and finalize our plans for 2024, over the next couple of months, we'll remain focused on keeping our people safe, stay committed to our Vulcan Way of Selling and Vulcan Way of Operating disciplines, and continue to deliver value for our shareholders. And now, Mary Andrews, and I will be happy to take your questions.

[Operator]

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star two. We do ask that you limit yourself to one question.

[Operator]

Once again, that is star one to ask a question. We will pause for a moment to allow questions to queue. The first question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please go ahead.

[Trey Grooms, Managing Director, Building Materials and Construction Services Equity Research at Stephens Inc.]

Hey, good morning, everyone. So Tom, I wanted to kind of follow up on the last bit of your commentary here. And I appreciate, you know, some of your high-level comments around demand and the end markets. But you know, could you maybe give us enough color where we could try to triangulate maybe the possibilities, if it is possible to call at this point of, you know, if volume could be in positive territory next year, as you kind of look at those three or four end markets and understanding there's a lot of uncertainty here, but any additional color you could give us around that would be helpful.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, Trey, good morning. Probably a little early to call specifics. I'd say that footprint's gonna matter, and I like ours because of the position in the Southeast. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a modest decline next year, similar to what we've seen this year, but we get there a different way. Some challenges on the private side. Single family, we think, has hit bottom and is improving, and I think, I think we can get to growth when looking at the full year for 2024. Multifamily, as you know, will be a headwind. In non-res, I think we've got some... It's a mixed bag. We've got some challenges. On the light side and on warehouses, warehouse starts have gotten a little weaker.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

The headwinds in light warehouses will be partially offset, I think, by the big industrial projects which really fit us. Now, we'll see. You'll definitely see growth on the private side, both in highways and non-highway infrastructure, driven by, you know, state, local, and the big IIJA funding. All that said, to your point, I think I could make a scenario to get flat volume next year, but at this point, I'd probably lead us to a modest decline. But now that, all that being said, remember that similar to this year, we should still realize really strong earnings growth next year, even if we do have a modest decline in volume.

[Trey Grooms, Managing Director, Building Materials and Construction Services Equity Research at Stephens Inc.]

Got it. Okay, thanks, thanks for those thoughts, Tom. I appreciate it. I'll pass it on.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

You bet.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Morning, Tyler.

[Tyler Brown, Associate VP, Investments at Raymond James]

Hey, good morning. Hey, good morning. Hey, I know there's obviously going to be a lot of chatter about volumes, but I kind of want to come back to this idea about, about unit revenues versus unit costs, because it feels like costs are just remaining stubbornly sticky. Volumes are stubbornly opaque. So despite both of those, though, you guys have expanded unit margins. So can you just talk about your confidence in the durability of expanding those margins into next year, kind of regardless of what the market throws at you? And Mary Andrews, just any thoughts on what unit cost inflation ex fuel could be? Thanks.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, let me take—I think I'll take price first. You're right, we'll expand margins, and I think we'll see another year of really strong unit margin growth, even in the face of inflation. It is really because we carry really good pricing momentum into 2024. You know, that visibility into healthy public demand growth, and you couple that with rising energy prices, really sets up a good environment for price. Our conversations with our customers for January price increases, I think, have gone very well. If you look at our backlog prices, I think they're very healthy. As we look at 2024 prices, I'd expect at least high single digits, but I could also see a path to low double-digit pricing.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

So, you know, at this point, we carry excellent pricing momentum into 2024, and we'll more than offset inflation and see strong unit margin growth.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, Tyler, and in terms of costs and evaluating next year, I think it's probably helpful to think about our recent trends, you know, on a trailing twelve-month basis. You'll remember, on a year-over-year basis, trailing twelve-month total cost, cash cost of sales began rising in Q1 last year. And, you know, we saw it ramp considerably, that delta, for five quarters before peaking in Q1 of this year. You know, it's since moderated, for the last two quarters, modestly, and we expect that trend to continue. We just think it's, it's gonna be gradual. So as we think into next year, I think what that means is, you know, higher than historical average, cost increases in 2024, you know, possibly even high single digits.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

But as you started with, you know, with the pricing momentum that Tom described, we can still deliver, you know, attractive gross margin improvement and definitely unit profitability improvement next year.

[Tyler Brown, Associate VP, Investments at Raymond James]

Okay, excellent. Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Hey, Garik.

[Garik Shmois, Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets]

Hey, good morning. Thanks for having me. I was wondering if you can expand on just that last comment, Tom, with respect to seeing the path to low double-digit pricing next year, you know, recognizing you don't have a formal guidance just yet, and you do expect pricing to be on at least high single digits. You know, is that based on the conversations that you guys are having now with the customers and perhaps better than expected discussions? Does it require carryover from any mid-year increases you got this year, or does it require any additional mid-year pricing next year? Just any additional color on how we get to low double digits in 2024.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, on, on price, first of all, I would say that, you know, it's high single digit, low double digit. The January price increases conversation has gone very well, and as you pointed out, I think, as we've seen for the last few years, we'll have mid-year price increase discussions with our customers. It's just part of the norm now. I guess we'll check back in in February with a little more color on that and have a lot clearer view of it. Again, I think as we look forward, it looks pretty good from a price perspective. On cost, as Mary Andrews Carlisle said, it's, you know, inflation is just stubborn for us. And, you know, where we, we've looked past had, low single digit each year.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

You know, this year, up until 2022, this year, we're at low double-digit, but as Mary Andrews says, starting to fall off, but it's - I think it's slower than maybe I would have expected six months ago.

[Garik Shmois, Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets]

Got it. Okay. Thank you, Nick.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Hi, Anthony.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citigroup]

Morning.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citigroup]

Hey, good morning. Tom, on private, non-residential, you know, you talked about some of these large manufacturing projects in the Southeast, you know, helping to offset weakness in some of the lighter categories. And I'm just wondering, as you look over the past few months, and as we think about 2024, have you seen any kind of incremental slowdown or delays in some of these mega projects, or are they coming kind of on time or maybe faster than expected? I guess we've seen some news stories about maybe availability of skilled labor and contractors, in some cases impacting individual projects, but I didn't know if that was something that was widespread or something that you're seeing with your customer set.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Actually, I think just the opposite. We've seen them come on strong. At this point, I think we booked 11 of those very large projects and, you know, starting to ship those, it'll be more of a 2024 play. Those 11 that I'm thinking of make up about 12 million tons. As we look out, I think we're probably over the next year, we'll bid another six, seven, eight of these big projects that would constitute another 14 million tons. The large industrials are gonna move the needle for us in 2024. Geography really, really helps here. There's Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, where a lot of those are right in our footprint. Our geography has really helped us here, but from our perspective, they've gone probably a little faster than maybe we've anticipated, so...

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

But remember, we're first coming out of the ground, so supply chain probably impacts us less than maybe others does.

[Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citigroup]

Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Hi, Stanley.

[Stanley Elliott, Director, Diversified Industrials sector, Machinery and Constructions Materials. at Stifel]

Morning.

[Stanley Elliott, Director, Diversified Industrials sector, Machinery and Constructions Materials. at Stifel]

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thank you for the question. Hey, Tom, could you talk a little bit more about kind of what you're seeing at the state budget level? You know, it seems to be kind of a different part of the story, maybe, you know, from prior years, and just how that can help the public markets, you know, accelerate into next year.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, good question. And actually, it's going well. As you know, we always say it takes two years for the money to go to work, and if you remember, IIJA was passed November of 2021, so we're at the two-year mark, and we're starting to see it come on. It'll be a gradual growth rate over time. We'll see growth in 2024. We see it in the awards, currently, 12 months is up 70% on awards. But if you look at the... To your point, if you look at the state DOT capital budgets for 2024, they're actually really big. You probably won't see all of that in 2024, but it'll sure sets us up well. For example, I think Alabama's up 29% capital budget.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

California's up 5, but 50% over three years in California, so we're starting to see that money flow through. Florida will be up 20%, Tennessee's budget doubles, and Texas is up 21%. So, this will be a multi-year play. They can't put all that money to work in 2024, but it sure sets us up. You know, some of it will go to work in 2024, but it sets us up also for 2024 and 2025. I think that, again, all this is really setting us up well for 2024, 2025 and 2026.

[Stanley Elliott, Director, Diversified Industrials sector, Machinery and Constructions Materials. at Stifel]

Perfect. Thanks so much.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Good morning, Kathryn.

[Kathryn Thompson, Managing Partner and CEO at Thompson Research Group]

Good morning.

[Kathryn Thompson, Managing Partner and CEO at Thompson Research Group]

Thanks for taking my question today. I know there's a lot of questions just about the rest of 2023 and the outlook for 2024, but stepping back and looking at the big picture, there's been a bit of activity in the industry from an M&A standpoint and you know, some rumblings of a greater slowdown in the economy in 2024, which can be opportunities for growth for a company as well as positioned as yourself. As you think about these type of opportunities and just areas of growth for Vulcan, how do you position yourself and what geographies and/or products are at top of the list in terms of growth initiatives for Vulcan? Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, well, aggregates is always gonna be the top of the list, and, you know, bolt-ons in our footprint will give us the best returns. As I look at the M&A market right now from, you know, say, six or eight months ago, it's actually picked up. I think over the next several months, over the next several quarters, we should see some strategic bolt-on acquisitions. And I think that we've got some really good opportunities there. I think we'll also, over the next two years, see a marked pickup in greenfield starts as we got some really good opportunities in adjacent markets to add some new facilities that we've been working on for the last five to ten years. I think both will pick up.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

As always, our biggest growth engine is gonna be improving cash flow, profit per ton in aggregates. And I think as we've heard earlier in this conversation, while we've had a great year in 2023, I think we'll also have a really strong year because of pricing momentum and our operating disciplines as we look out to 2024. So I'm very encouraged with growth on all fronts at this point.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Great. Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Morning, Jerry.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Morning.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, Tom, Mary Andrews. Good morning. I wonder if you could just talk about the opportunity that you folks have from the logistics services and other initiatives outside of price cost. You've had over the past 10 years, you know, 10% compounded CAGR in unit profitability. You've had some contribution outside of price cost from those initiatives. And can we just ask you for an update on how that's tracking and the opportunities over the next couple of years?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, that's, it's quietly gone very well for us, and it's been a, I think, a strategic advantage to servicing our customers, particularly on these very large projects. They're complex, they're all, you know, quality and delivery makes a big difference because those projects have a time frame, and some of them have, you know, damages if you're not on time, and if you can't get it there and get the right product there, it holds the project up, it, it, it's worth more than the price of aggregate. So I think that both from a price perspective and a volume perspective, quietly, it has been a strategic advantage for us.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

The outlook from here, Tom, any particular acceleration? Because it seems like it's contributed to the unit profitability, CAGR, you know, about one to two points generally.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, I think that it will continue to grow. I think we continue to add new features to that, including back-office features that make it easier for our customers to do business with us. So I think, again, we're not done with it, and we continue to learn and improve upon it.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Thanks.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Morning, Mike.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Morning.

[Mike Dahl, Managing Director, Equity Research, Homebuilders and Building Product Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. Can you talk about the downstream businesses, maybe give us an update on how you're thinking about them for this year within the guide, and then, if you do have any initial thoughts on kind of the volume and price or price cost outlook similar to how you outlined for asphalt for your downstream businesses next year, that'd be great.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah. So asphalt, you know, it's been a great year. It was a really strong quarter. Volumes were up 11%, unit margins up 50%, and we're really helped. We're, first of all, in really good asphalt markets, but we're also obviously helped by liquid, you know, fall in liquid, and on top of that, really good pricing momentum for hot mix. As we look to 2024, I'd say, we're still doing the work. I think there's potentially some challenges from liquid pricing going up. I think demand will be okay, but I think we'll give you a lot more color in February.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

As I look to ready-mix, as we had called out kind of early in the year, where we struggled with unit margins, because of inflation and, and, and energy last year, we got past that with price, as we predicted. Volumes in the quarter were a little challenged, on a same store basis, and that's really driven by single-family construction. The prices were up 10% and unit margins were up over 30%. Next year, I think it's a little early to call because of the volatility in the private side. We just got to see more. That said, I think we do have, pretty good pricing momentum going into 2024 on concrete.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

I think just longer term, you know, we think about that ready-mix business as, you know, kind of low double-digit gross margin. I think as we, you know, move ahead, we'll continue improving back towards that. On asphalt, you know, same thing, probably through the cycle, high single digits, maybe low double digits. You know, we're ahead of that right now because of timing on energy. But, you know, the margin recovery in both businesses is exciting, and we'd expect that to continue.

[Mike Dahl, Managing Director, Equity Research, Homebuilders and Building Product Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Great. Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Morning, Timna.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wolfe Research]

Morning, guys. Thanks for all the great detail. I guess I know I asked you. I figured I'd touch on the Mexican quarry updates because there was some news recently that the government offered you something north of $300 million, and that was not accepted. So just wondering what the latest there is, what you're holding out for. I know you've quoted some press reports of closer to over $1 billion, but just trying to get a sense of maybe any timing there or the latest in that process. Thanks.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, as far as... You got to remember, as far as a number is concerned, we have a confidentiality agreement in, with the, with the NAFTA Tribunal, so we can't quote numbers. There's been some quoted in the Mexican press.... As far as the business value of that business is concerned, the simple story is that we're waiting for the results of the NAFTA claim. The NAFTA Tribunal heard the case in August. We like our position, we like how that, how that hearing went. We should get those results sometime next year. As far as the property rights and our property down there, we'll protect our ownership. We'll simply protect our ownership of our land in Mexico.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wolfe Research]

So them offering you something before the results of the NAFTA panel was just, what? To try to get around that, ultimate result, maybe? That seems strange.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

I can't. I don't want to predict the dealings of the Mexican government. I can't explain that to you.

[Timna Tanners, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wolfe Research]

Understood. All right, thanks again.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Phil Ing with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Hi, Phil.

[Phil Ng, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Hey. Hey, guys. You guys called out some crosscurrents in your non-res business, notably between manufacturing and warehouse. Can you help size up these two end markets for you from a percentage of your business or tons? And any nuances between the aggregate intensity of these two different end markets?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, well, I would tell you, first of all, both of them are really aggregate intensive because they're big and they're flat. So let me just kind of see if I can size up the non-res sector for you. I think, first of all, non-residential demand has been much better in 2023 than we originally anticipated back in February, really supported by warehouses and the large manufacturing projects. As we look to 2024, I think non-residential construction demand will have some segments up and some segments down. The larger manufacturing projects, which you pointed out, are really good for aggregates and particularly good for Vulcan. As I pointed out, so many of those are right in our footprint, and we've already backlogged almost a dozen of them.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

We'll service a little bit of that this year, but most of it'll go into 2024. Warehousing demand, you know, held up really good in 2023. It's at record levels, but we see some risk, as starts are now slowing as we had anticipated. We thought we'd get hit with some of that in 2023, but so far, so good. I think, you know, we probably anticipate some of that for 2024. We'll continue to see some challenges to light, you know, because of macroeconomics. Even with some challenges to non-res, I think our markets outperform because of the big, large industrials and how many of them we backlogged.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, and Phil, in terms of, you know, composition of shipments, we don't necessarily track shipments to that level, but I think you could think about it in terms of contract awards. And so in private non-res, you know, warehouses now make up probably close to 50% of the contract awards, and the industrial manufacturing, probably 10%-15%.

[Phil Ng, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Okay. And then you guys gave us some good color for 2024 in terms of, the big drivers of low single-digit volume declines, potentially in ags, double-digit price, and then potentially high single-digit cost inflation. Mary Andrews, I guess if I had to unpack that, I get to low-teens cash gross profit, gross profit, per ton growth next year. Am I generally in the strike zone?

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Well, I think, you know, it's just too early for us to give you—to go there, really. We'll, you know, come back in February with more specifics. Well, as we've talked about, you know, we definitely see good opportunities for continued, you know, unit profitability growth next year.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, I think, you know, I think overall, your assumptions are, you know, again, we got a... Some of that could fluctuate by the time we get to February, but at this point, I don't think your assumptions are way off.

[Phil Ng, Managing Director at Jefferies]

Okay. Thanks, Tom.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist. Please go ahead.

[Keith Hughes, Managing Director, Sell Side Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Yeah, a question on diesel. What, what role is that playing in the, guidance for Q4 and, and current prices? What would that look like to start next year?

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, so in the quarter, in the Q3, diesel was really up and down, but was a, was a net benefit. Thinking, you know, as we move forward, if diesel stays at the levels we saw in September, Q4 would probably be essentially a push. Looking into next year, we think on average, you know, diesel will be higher year-over-year, but it's, you know, probably too early to call exactly what that will, will look like. As you know, for us, diesel can be a temporary challenge, but it's, it's also an opportunity.

[Keith Hughes, Managing Director, Sell Side Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Raw material cost, another question, I know a lot of the other inputs, components and kind of the world have been, continue to stay high. Will, will, are you hearing from your suppliers more potential increases to begin calendar 2024?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, I think, you know, everything is sequentially staying up. We're in those negotiations. I think it's a little early to call that right now for the big, the big push, the big movers. The one we think will be up will be energy, both diesel and electricity, will probably be up. As far as the other inputs, I think that, you know, it's stayed a lot more stubborn than we would have anticipated. I don't think we'd call up, you know, probably high single for next year, but it's really too early to call as we're doing the operating plans and the negotiations with our suppliers at this point.

[Keith Hughes, Managing Director, Sell Side Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Okay. Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Good morning, Mike.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Good morning.

[Michael Dudas, Equity Research Analyst at Vertical Research Partners]

Good morning, Mary Andrews, Mark, and Tom. For Tom and Mary Andrews, when you talked about you allocated the capital towards the land acquisitions here this quarter, up to $200 million, you're talking about 2023. Maybe you can share, like, how that progress is and the, you know, what's the medium longer-term timing on some of the greenfield opportunities. Are there some that are closer rather than others? And, you know, on a big picture basis, how much is that kind of think about relative to investing the capital into those types of projects?

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah. So this, this year, those strategic reserve purchases, as you would've seen, we, we completed the majority of that in the Q3. And we're working on our capital planning for next year, you know, right now. And Tom mentioned earlier, you know, we do have a healthy pipeline of greenfield opportunities at varying stages. So we're working, you know, now to define what that spending will look like for 2024. I think if you think of CapEx, you know, overall, as we go into next year, we think that the current levels for operating and maintenance CapEx are appropriate for our current business needs and kind of where we are in the cycle.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

The growth is the part that will move around a little bit more, but we wouldn't expect the same, you know, level of land purchases next year as this year.

[Michael Dudas, Equity Research Analyst at Vertical Research Partners]

Okay. And you would add... So there's capacity growth potential in those states or others as you're looking out medium to longer term, as those markets continue to be attractive for you guys?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, I think, I think the answer is yes. It's also what you're looking at is where are the growth corridors, and how do you get the most effective logistic position to those future growth corridors? And what's the timing of putting the capital in? And that's the beauty of a greenfield, is you can time the capital and you can you don't have to go in all at once. So you know, if you've got a faster growing market where your greenfield is, you'd put a big plant in. If you got if it's out there and you just want to... and it's slow growth, you'd put maybe a portable or smaller plant in. But I think that, in a number of these, it is getting the most strategic position in those markets at the right time.

[Michael Dudas, Equity Research Analyst at Vertical Research Partners]

Thank you, Mary Andrews, Tom.

[Operator]

The next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Yes, good morning, everyone, and thanks for the question.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Good morning, David.

[David MacGregor, President, Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Good morning, Tom. Good morning, Mary Andrews. I guess my question is just on the timing, on project starts. And, you know, I, I guess, are you seeing much in terms of change in the lag between awards, announcements, and, and, aggregate shipments? I mean, is that lag greater than you would have otherwise expected at this point? And we've had quite a bit of inflation, obviously, in materials and labor and services, and I'm guessing a number of these projects are running above engineers' estimates. Any projects being held back or delayed as a consequence of, inflationary concerns and expectations that if they were to defer, they might get, better economics further down the road?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

As far as delay, as far as people projects getting pushed back, we saw a little bit of that in a couple of states, I'd say nine months ago. We're not seeing that today at all. In fact, states are working hard to get projects out. You know, inflation's definitely had an impact on project costs, but we're still seeing growth in demand, and we'll this year, and we'll see growth in demand next year despite inflation. And as you heard me talk about earlier, budgets are up in a number of states, what I'd say, dramatically. So I think they understand that. I don't think I worry about projects being pushed back from a cost perspective. If it is delays to projects, it's really delays to getting into lettings because of capacity, the DOTs growing into the funding.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Again, I think that all that taken in, we continue to see gradual growth in highway demand next year and the next year, and the next year, and the next year.

[David MacGregor, President, Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Are you seeing much in the way of revisions to engineers' estimates?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

I'm sorry, I misunderstood you.

[David MacGregor, President, Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Are you seeing much in the way of revisions to engineers' estimates?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, they're going up, and I think they're adjusting to it appropriately. But there's a lag there, and, you know, they're playing a little bit of catch up because of inflation.

[David MacGregor, President, Senior Analyst at Longbow Research]

Thank you, Tom.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director, Equity Research at Bank of America]

Morning.

[Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Good morning.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director, Equity Research at Bank of America]

Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just, you gave some great color on 2024. Just to kind of put a finer point on it, when you think of the price versus cost spread you guys achieved in Q3, just, is that price versus cost spread expanding in 2024 or staying the same, given kind of the moving pieces you were indicating earlier?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

I think the simple answer is, and you have to like it, it's a little early to call. We're still figuring that out. We're trying to give you color very early on price and costs. And I think, you know, on price, we said, you know, high single-digit, maybe in the low double-digit on cost. Really early on cost, because, you know, we're estimating high single-digit, but we're doing the work right now, including negotiating with our vendors and doing the operating plans. I think what I am encouraged about on the cost perspective is I think we'll see improved operating efficiencies... because of the automation, what we've done in the plants, but also the complete program of the Vulcan Way of Operating.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

But to call that margin growth at this point, I think we're just a little bit early. We'll be back to you in February.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director, Equity Research at Bank of America]

Appreciate that. When we think of next year, how you kind of outlined potential movement in shipments, when we think of the cadence of residential, public, light versus heavy, I'm just curious if you could kind of help us understand how, how you think the cadence kind of plays out for next year. Is it you start strong, or does it actually kind of get better through the year? You know, you have kind of easier comps potentially in the second half. Just how do you kind of think of these moving pieces, how that rolls through next year?

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

I don't know that, I don't know that I have-- that we've got that down yet. I think the puts and takes for, for next year go like this. This is-- I'm not answering questions for sequencing the quarterly, but more what would be on the high side and what would drive us lower. I think, number one, speed of, of-- and really important, speed of highway dollars going to work and going to shipments will be at the forefront. Second would be, does, does single family come roaring back, or is it maybe a little slower? I hopefully think we'll see growth in single family. It's how fast and how far.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

And the macroeconomics and the macro, the demand, the fundamentals for demand in single family is there, but you're fighting, obviously, you know, cost and inflationary pressures of the price of a house. On non-res, it will be the speed of the big projects versus what happens with warehouses. So I think that those are kind of the puts and takes. I don't, I'm not sure that as far as the sequencing quarter to quarter, I'm, I think we've got to do some work on that, but those will be the puts and takes of if we're at the high end, the low end, when we get the guidance in February.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director, Equity Research at Bank of America]

Perfect. Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Sure.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Rohit Seth with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

[Rohit Seth, Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Hey, Rohit.

[Rohit Seth, Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

Good morning. My question is on the Vulcan Way of Operating. You guys have mentioned on past calls that you had made some investments over the past couple of years, and I know you touched on the logistics side, but I think there's some plant-level stuff that you had in the works and we're looking forward to, you know, potentially being needle movers in 2024. Do you still think those are gonna be needle movers next year? And if you can help us think about what to expect and if you can quantify any impact, that'd be great.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Yeah, it's really hard to quantify, particularly at this point, those operating plans are being developed and will be presented to us in December. From a high level, we've the investment we did and, you know, our the top probably 70% of our operating facilities are tons from a volume perspective. That investment's in place. Now, once you get it in place, you've got to get the technical piece for each plant has to come out. We're working on that as we speak. I think we'll be through that by the time we get to Q1, Q2 of next year, or at least mid-year next year. So we'll see some marked improvements, I believe, in operating efficiencies.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Putting that to dollars and cents, that work's going on right now, and we won't be done with it until December, so we'll have to get back with you in February.

[Rohit Seth, Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst at Seaport Research Partners]

All right. Thank you.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you.

[Operator]

It appears we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional remarks.

[Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO at Vulcan Materials Company]

Thank you very much for your interest in Vulcan Materials. We look forward to talking to you throughout the quarter. Please keep yourselves and your families safe and healthy. Thank you.

[Operator]

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

Participants

Executives

• Mark Warren, VP of Investor Relations
• Mary Andrews Carlisle, SVP and CFO
• Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO

Analysts

• Anthony Pettinari, Research Analyst at Citigroup
• David MacGregor, President, Senior Analyst at Longbow Research
• Garik Shmois, Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets
• Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs
• Kathryn Thompson, Managing Partner and CEO at Thompson Research Group
• Keith Hughes, Managing Director, Sell Side Equity Research at Truist Securities
• Michael Dudas, Equity Research Analyst at Vertical Research Partners
• Michael Feniger, Managing Director, Equity Research at Bank of America
• Mike Dahl, Managing Director, Equity Research, Homebuilders and Building Product Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Phil Ng, Managing Director at Jefferies
• Rohit Seth, Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst at Seaport Research Partners
• Stanley Elliott, Director, Diversified Industrials sector, Machinery and Constructions Materials. at Stifel
• Timna Tanners, Managing Director, Equity Research at Wolfe Research
• Trey Grooms, Managing Director, Building Materials and Construction Services Equity Research at Stephens Inc.
• Tyler Brown, Associate VP, Investments at Raymond James