Delta Air Lines Q2 2023 Earnings Report

Delta Air Lines EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.68
• Consensus EPS: $2.40
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.28
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.44

Delta Air Lines Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $15.58 billion
• Expected Revenue: $14.44 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$1.14 billion
• YoY Revenue Growth: +12.70%

Delta Air Lines Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2023
• Date: 7/13/2023
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, July 13, 2023
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) is a major U.S.-based global airline that provides scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation, aircraft maintenance and repair services, and related travel products. Its operations include mainline domestic and international passenger services, a branded regional network operating under the Delta Connection name, dedicated air cargo carriage, and in-house maintenance, repair and overhaul through Delta TechOps. Delta offers a range of cabin products for different customer segments, including premium business-class service on long-haul routes and tiered economy offerings on domestic and international flights, and it markets customer loyalty benefits through the SkyMiles frequent-flyer program.

The carrier operates a mixed fleet of narrow- and wide-body aircraft from multiple U.S. hubs, serving a global route network that links cities across the Americas, Europe, Asia and other international markets. Delta is a founding member of the SkyTeam global airline alliance and participates in commercial joint ventures and partnerships that coordinate transatlantic and transpacific services with other major carriers to expand connectivity, scheduling and frequent-flyer reciprocity for customers.

Delta traces its roots to a crop-dusting company founded in 1924 that began passenger service as Delta Air Service in 1929. In the 21st century the airline underwent significant restructuring, including a Chapter 11 reorganization in 2005 and a large-scale consolidation with Northwest Airlines that was completed in 2010, creating one of the world’s largest airlines by network size. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and is led by chief executive officer Edward H. (Ed) Bastian, who has served as CEO since 2016.

Delta Air Lines Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Delta delivered its highest quarterly earnings ever with earnings of $2.68 per share (up 90% year-over-year), 19% revenue growth to $14.6 billion, and a 17% operating margin in Q2.
• The airline generated over $1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter (bringing H1 FCF to $3 billion), repaid $3 billion of debt year-to-date, improved leverage to 3.2×, and reinstated a quarterly dividend.
• Delta raised its full-year outlook, now expecting $6–7 per share in earnings, an operating margin above 12%, and $3 billion of free cash flow; Q3 guidance calls for double-digit revenue growth, mid-teens margin, and $2.20–2.50 EPS.
• Strong demand for premium travel and loyalty drove results: international premium revenue was up 25%, total loyalty revenue rose 20%, and Delta was named the best U.S. airline by Points Guy for the fifth straight year.
• The company’s long-term strategy centers on digital transformation, free cash flow generation, return on invested capital, and leveraging its brand—aiming for more than $10 billion of free cash flow from 2023–2025.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines June quarter 2023 financial results conference call. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your coordinator. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode until we conduct a question-and-answer session following the presentation. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. If you have any questions or comments during the presentation, you may press Star one on your phone to enter the question queue at any time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations at Delta Air Lines]

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our June quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining us from Atlanta today, our CEO, Ed Bastian, our President, Glen Hauenstein, our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta's performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs and our balance sheet. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions. Please, we please ask that you limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up so we can get to as many of you as possible. After the analyst Q&A, we will move to our media questions. Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

[Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations at Delta Air Lines]

Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta's SEC filing. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the investor relations page at ir.delta.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ed.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Thanks, Julie. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. Today, thanks to the great work of our team, we announced record revenue and earnings, reflecting the strength of demand for and momentum of Delta's differentiated brand. During the June quarter, we generated earnings of $2.68 per share, a 90% increase over last year. This marks the highest quarterly earnings result in our history, an achievement that moves Delta beyond recovery and firmly on a great path forward. Revenue was 19% above last year, and we achieved a 17% operating margin. This resulted in operating income of $2.5 billion, bringing our operating profit over the last 12 months to $6 billion. We generated over $1 billion of free cash during the quarter, bringing our first half free cash flow to $3 billion.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

We continue to repay debt, and we reinstated a quarterly dividend, signifying strong execution on our 3-year plan and creating value for our owners. At Delta, transportation is what we do, but experiences are what we deliver, and that's made possible by the exceptional service provided by the industry's best employees. The 90,000 Delta people continued to deliver for our customers during this busy summer season. Over the 4th of July weekend, our people delivered a great operation, completing over 21,000 flights with a 99.5% completion factor and industry-leading on-time performance. The Delta people continue to be recognized. During the quarter, The Points Guy ranked Delta as the best U.S. airline for the fifth year in a row, with consistently high scores for reliability, customer experience, network, and loyalty.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Sharing our success with our team is core to Delta's culture, and we continue to maintain a position of industry leadership on pay. During the quarter, eligible employees received a 5% pay increase on the 1st of April, and year-to-date, we have accrued over $660 million in profit sharing. In fact, more than the total profit sharing paid out for full-year 2022. We expect our profit sharing payout next February will continue to lead the industry by a wide margin. We will always be guided by our values of putting our people and our customers first. They are the driving force of our success. I want to thank our entire team for all they do for Delta and our customers. As I've recently noted, the industry backdrop remains constructive.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Air travel demand is strong, and the consumer is in good financial shape, particularly the premium consumer base that we target. After years of spending on goods, consumers want to travel. It's their number one big-ticket purchase priority, and they desire premium experiences. No one provides this better than Delta. At the same time, aviation infrastructure is still fragile, and the industry continues to face multiple constraints across the supply chain, aircraft delivery delays, and training needs. As a result, we see a significant gap between the supply that is in place and what demand could sustain, and we expect this gap will remain for an extended period of time. Turning to our outlook. With our first half performance and visibility into the back half of the year, we are raising our full-year outlook and now expect earnings of $6-$7 per share.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

For the September quarter, demand momentum continues. We expect to deliver double-digit revenue growth of mid-teens operating margin and earnings of $2.20-$2.50 per share. Glen and Dan will provide more details on the components of our outlook. As we move to 2024 and beyond, our path forward is clear. The strategy that we shared at our Investor Day just a few weeks ago, positions Delta incredibly well for the future. Our long-term priorities are to run the world's best airline, unlock the power of our brand, transform through digital, and deliver long-term shareholder value. Our strategy is underpinned by a commitment to financial performance, with a focus on free cash flow, return on invested capital, and earnings durability....

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

We are currently executing ahead of our 3-year financial plan, and are well-positioned to achieve our 2024 earnings target of over $7 per share. On free cash flow, we introduced a new goal to generate over $10 billion of free cash flow from 2023-2025. Strong cash generation will enable us to return our balance sheet to investment-grade metrics, while consistently reinvesting in the business. In closing, thanks to the outstanding work of our people, Delta continues to set itself apart. We have unique opportunities to grow earnings by leveraging our powerful brand, extending our durable competitive advantages, and accelerating our digital transformation. One other point I'd like to add: while our team has been hard at work returning the level of excellence to the skies that our customers deserve, we have not let go of our commitments to our community.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Our team was recently recognized as the number one corporate blood drive donor to the American Red Cross for the sixth consecutive year, with record units of blood collected. To me, these types of achievements are as rewarding as the great financial and operational results that we are publishing today, and what makes this company truly great. Thank you again. With that, let me turn the call over to Glen and Dan to go through the details of the quarter.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Thank you, Ed. Good morning. I want to start by recognizing our people for their exceptional work during the always challenging peak summer travel period. Thank you. Delta produced record June quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 19% over last year. Revenues were ahead of our initial expectations with momentum in June. June 30th was a new record for industry volume and our highest summer revenue day in history. Total unit revenues were up 1.3% over prior year on improved yield and load factor. Consumer demand strength continues to be the primary driver of our revenue growth. Business travel in the quarter improved year-over-year, primarily driven by international. Overall, international passenger revenue grew 61%, led by the Transatlantic and Latin America. Domestic passenger revenue was 8% higher on a similar capacity increase.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Premium revenue grew 25%, supporting growth in unit revenues and continuing to outperform main cabin. Delta Premium Select is now offered on over 80% of our wide-body fleet, and customer response to the product has been terrific, with returns outpacing our expectations. Total loyalty revenue was up 20% versus last year, with continued momentum in our American Express co-brand portfolio. Remuneration of $1.7 billion was 22% higher year-over-year, with $3.4 billion through the first half. We are firmly on track to exceed the $6.5 billion target for this year, and focused on reaching our new long-term goal of $10 billion. Turning to the outlook for September quarter, we expect total revenue to be similar to 2Q, increasing 11%-14% year-over-year.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

On capacity outlook of 16% growth, unit revenues are expected to be 2%-4% lower. While a deceleration from the June quarter, this is consistent with historic performance between 2Q and 3Q, when factoring in the holiday shifts and tougher international comps, as we lap the removal of restrictions. Domestically, demand remains robust and our core hub rebuild is advancing, with growth focused in Atlanta. In our Coastal Hubs, we are leveraging facility investments and progressively improving margins. On International, demand strength is continuing and we are confident in delivering record profitability and margins across all three international entities. System bookings for travel beyond Labor Day are encouraging into the fall. On Corporate, we expect steady improvement in demand.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Our recent corporate survey shows businesses expect to increase travel in the second half, with several of the least recovered sectors conveying optimism for increased travel in the fall. Similar optimism was reflected in Morgan Stanley's recent Global Corporate Travel Survey, where respondents indicated travel was expected to grow 9% year-over-year in the second half, and 8% into 2024. Delta's capacity growth will normalize to mid-single digits in 2024, enabling us to further improve reliability, optimize the network, and drive efficiency to reduce unit costs and support margin expansion. With an integrated and proven commercial strategy and the best people in the industry, we have significant opportunity ahead. In closing, I'm so proud of the team for delivering a great first half of the year and excited about the momentum we are building.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

With that, I'll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

Great. Thank you, Glen, good morning to everyone. In the June quarter, we delivered earnings of $2.68 per share and an operating margin of 17%, ahead of our guidance and a significant improvement over last year. Our non-fuel unit costs were up 2.4% year-over-year. Fuel prices for the quarter averaged $2.52 per gallon, including a refinery benefit of $0.04. We generated operating cash flow of $2.6 billion, after reinvesting $1.6 billion into the business, free cash flow was $1.1 billion. Liquidity ended the quarter at $8.8 billion, with adjusted net debt of $19.8 billion.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

During the first half of 2023, we repaid $3 billion of debt, including $1.4 billion of early repayments, with a focus on our high-cost debt. For the year, we expect to repay over $4 billion of gross debt, resulting in interest costs over $100 million lower than our initial expectations. Our leverage ratio improved to 3.2x on a trailing 12-month basis. This is down from 5x at the end of the year. During the quarter, we announced the reinstatement of a quarterly dividend, opening the shareholder base to yield-focused investors. Moving on to guidance for the September quarter and full year. We expect mid-teen operating margins and earnings of $2.20-$2.50 per share in the September quarter. Non-fuel unit costs have reached an important inflection point.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

We expect non-fuel unit costs to decline 1%-3% year-over-year in the September quarter. This is consistent with our expectations for a low single-digit decline in the second half of 2023. Rebuild costs are substantially behind us, and capacity is returning through our most efficient core hubs. July marks our peak ASM production for the year, and capacity seasonally declining in the fall and winter. As our capacity growth normalizes, it enables our operating teams to drive efficiency. We have over a billion-dollar opportunity from initiatives across the enterprise as hiring and training slow and our workforce gains experience. Improving our non-fuel unit cost is an enterprise-wide priority and remains within our controls. On fuel, we expect the September quarter fuel price to be between $2.50-$2.70 per gallon. This includes a four-cent refinery benefit.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

As part of our routine maintenance done once every five years, the refinery will undergo a turnaround in mid-September that will continue through November. With production offline during this period, we expect the refinery to break even during the second half of the year. With our 2Q performance and our 3Q outlook, we now expect the full-year earnings to be $6-$7 per share, an operating margin greater than 12%, free cash flow of $3 billion. Delivering these financial results also positions us to reduce our leverage ratio to three times by the end of the year and significantly improve our return on invested capital. For the full-year, we expect our return on invested capital to be approximately 14%, a 6-point improvement versus last year.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

In closing, we're ahead of plan in 2023. In 2024, we remain confident in delivering earnings per share of over $7 a share, while generating over $4 billion of free cash flow and achieving our investment-grade metrics. As we shared at Investor Day, we see significant opportunities beyond 2024 as we build on the strength of the core airline, leverage our existing capital base to grow high-margin revenue streams, and deliver durable earnings through a full economic cycle. We couldn't do this without the hard work of our employees who are delivering for our customers every day. I'd like to thank the Delta people for all they do. With that, I'd like to turn it back to Julie for Q&A.

[Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations at Delta Air Lines]

Matthew, can you please remind the analyst how to queue up for questions?

[Operator]

Certainly. If you have a question or comment, please press Star one on your phone at this time. We do ask that while posing a question, please pick up your handset if you're listening on speaker phone, to provide optimum sound quality. We do ask that all Q&A participants, please limit to one question and one follow-up question, then reenter the queue. Once again, if you have any questions or comments, please press Star one on your phone. Your first question is coming from Helane Becker, from TD Cowen. Your line is live.

[Helane Becker, Managing Director and Senior Advisor at TD Cowen]

Thanks very much, operator. Hi, team. Thanks for the time here. I just have a point of clarification, then my question. The point of clarification is, Dan, did you just say that you're gonna do more than $4 billion in free cash flow for this year? Is that an official guidance update? My question really has to do with, as you think about your digital footprint and the technology investments that you have to make, how are you thinking about, you know, what's customer-facing versus what's back office and the cost to invest in both? Thank you.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

I'll start with the first one, as it relates to free cash flow for this year, 2023, at Investor Day, we raised our guidance from $2 billion-$3 billion. $3 billion is the number for this year, we expect as part of our 3-year plan, we said that we'd be at $4 billion or greater in 2024. Ed talked about the 3-year collective plan that we're working towards, which is over $10 billion for the cumulative period of 2023 through 2025.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Elaine, on your question regarding digital, I think I mentioned 2 weeks ago at our Investor Day, I consider this one of the most important activities and investments that we are making in the company. On the one hand, we're far along. We've been working on this for a while, but clearly, we have a lot to go as well. Most of the work that we are doing is clearly within the run rate, our CapEx run rate. I don't anticipate any increase in capital as a result of that.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

If anything, a lot of the work that should start sunsetting by the end of 2024, in terms of moving our infrastructure to the cloud, will start to dissipate and that'll create even more capacity within the existing spend level for digital.

[Helane Becker, Managing Director and Senior Advisor at TD Cowen]

Thank you. That's very helpful.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question's coming from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley. Your line is live.

[Ravi Shanker, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you, good morning, everyone. Glen, you commented on the fall. Any chance you can expand on those comments a little bit more, especially U.S. domestic? I think you spoke about corporate a little bit. I think most folks are focused on what the demand looks like beyond the summer, which is obviously very, very strong right now.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Right. you know, we see strong demand both domestically and internationally, as far as we can see. We can see internationally, probably to the end of summer, IATA in October, and see very, very strong results there. Domestically, we've seen some very positive trends. I think that was one of our increases in the June quarter we talked about in the earnings, and we've seen some inflection in terms of close-in build, where it's starting to look better as we move later in the summer, and we're very encouraged with those trends as well.

[Ravi Shanker, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley]

Great. As a follow-up, maybe to Ed or Dan, you're gonna hit your long-term EPS target of $7 at the high end of your guide this year, which obviously is very, very impressive. I think, you know, what's the next bar here? What's the next step? Are you looking at $10? obviously, you just gave us the long-term outlook at the beyond Analyst Day in terms of the initiatives out there. what are we thinking in terms of financial targets for the long term?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Hi, Ravi. you know, We need to get to $7 first before we talk about what's next.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

We're only halfway through a three-year plan.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah. We've already just increased the current, the current year guide. We will most likely, at some point next year, hopefully the first half of the year, have our updated, long-term plan conversation, where we can, we can talk about where we see the long-term financial targets for the company going. Right now we want to focus on, you know, we're in a very busy part of the year. We want to deliver a great operation for our customers, and we'll talk, we'll talk more over the course of the next 12 months as to how far the EPS can get.

[Ravi Shanker, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley]

It's a very high-quality problem to have. Thank you.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question's coming from Catie O'Brien, from Goldman Sachs. Your line is live.

[Catie O'Brien, Lead U.S. Airline and Aircraft Lessor Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. Yesterday, we had a pretty sizable month-over-month step down in airfare CPI. You know, I did some quick analysis that shows that that data isn't very correlated to the industry's RASM or yield historically, it doesn't feel quite right to fully ignore a data point like that. I guess, did you see anything similar to that step down in your own data, maybe on domestic or lower end of the field, fare spectrum? I know you're guiding to a decel in 3Q versus 2Q, you know, better than what myself and The Street was forecasting, you know, a deceleration. Is it as simple as that, or are there flaws in how that CPI data is calculated, where it's relevant to Delta? Thanks.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Well, the methodology is a sample of a sample. We're not seeing the same and, you know, it's a different data point than what we have and what we're seeing. I'll leave it to that. If you want the definition, which I think explains why there may be a big variance to what you're seeing, we can forward that to you.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

Yes.

[Catie O'Brien, Lead U.S. Airline and Aircraft Lessor Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Great.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah, you know, one thing for the call, because I know a lot of people had this question. You know, just think about where we were last May and June. Demand had just turned on in a crazy, hot way. Supply was really low. People didn't care where they were going or how much they spent, they just wanted to go someplace. We were seeing fares of up 30%, 40%, 50% in a lot of, particularly in a lot of the domestic markets where they could travel to. That's obviously not sustainable, and that's the concept that it's in the data that's being compared to as well. We're now at a much more normalized level of stability in the fare environment, particularly domestically.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah, I think that it's a really poor comparison to try to draw what that one CPI print was off of a survey, and how that relates to Delta for the future.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah.

[Catie O'Brien, Lead U.S. Airline and Aircraft Lessor Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

I very much agree. Maybe one more for Dan, too. You know, Dan, you're well on your way on your $3 billion free cash flow target. Understand, you know, fuel's been volatile to see how the ATL shapes up in the back half of the year. If your free cash flow was to come in better, would there be upside to that $4 billion+ debt paydown you spoke to? You know, is that at all capped by your level of prepayable debt, or you're happy to pay prepayment penalties? That means you take down that interest cost burden faster and de-risk the business. Thanks for all the time.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

Certainly, as we've talked about, paying down debt is a priority here. Generating cash, paying down debt. The two, hand in hand, any additional cash that we generate, we certainly would pay down debt with it. I think you'll see us, even in the back half of this year, we will be over that $4 billion that I talked about of gross debt paydown. Ken and the team out there have been really good about doing it. What we've done year to date, we've done it actually through open market repurchase and other activities, and we're just gonna continue to work down the debt.

[Catie O'Brien, Lead U.S. Airline and Aircraft Lessor Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Michael Linenberg from Deutsche Bank. Your line is live.

[Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah. Hey, I just want to touch back on, I think, Ed, you talked about, you know, summer being strong, maybe Glen also added to it, for international. Wait, not summer, but international being strong, extending into the fall. I did note that, you know, for many of your seasonal European markets, it does look like you've extended the season, you know, into November, December, and instead of restarting in April and May, it seems like they're coming back in early March, maybe even February. Is there a secular shift that is going on here where you're just picking up more and more international? It's a longer season. Maybe these markets are becoming more mature on one hand.

[Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

My follow-up would be: when you look at your domestic, what, you know, what's the load factor points that are being driven by international? Is it 5 points of load, 8 points of load factor that are on a connecting itinerary? Thanks for answering my questions.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Sure. On the seasonality, you know, we have extended a lot of those seasonal deferrals were because of the way we did maintenance in the past, and we're adjusting that. I think what we want to accomplish for most of our markets is at least a full season of summer IATA, which is, of course-

[Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

October. You've seen a lot of extensions into that period. You know, we've seen travel patterns emerging post-pandemic to Europe that tend to see that Southern Europe has a longer season than it has had historically, so we're taking advantage of that, while Northern Europe does have a much shorter season, so trying to work both of those issues to create a network that produces the best returns on a year-round basis. We have a lot of improvement. We're gonna have a really, you know, great summer, and our goal is to have a great winter as well. That's what we-

[Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Mm-hmm.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

On the domestic portion of international journey, I think in the last call, we said it was about 10, and I think that's about where it's staying. Again, that depends whether you call domestic portion of international journey to the long hauls or to the short haul, including the Caribbean and Mexico. The number I'm giving you includes the Caribbean and Mexico, which is really part of North America. If you took the truly long hauls out of that, it would be a lower number.

[Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay. Okay, thanks very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Your line is live.

[Sheila Kahyaoglu, Aerospace and Defense Airlines Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Great quarter on profitability, you raised the margin guidance for the year for 12% for 2023. That implies 100 basis points of improvement in the second half. How much of that is coming from fuel and non-fuel costs? You mentioned that down 1-3 points. Is it all just cost benefits, or are you assuming some continued yield strength in the Atlantic, like we were just talking about, and benefit from domestic hub restoration?

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah, when you think about it, first half to second half, a couple things to think about. Certainly, non-fuel is the biggest driver there. We were up in the first half, going to be down low single-digits in the back half. That's your real benefit related to that on that basis. The other benefit you have is when you think about the halves, you really have a second quarter, pretty similar, but you have a fourth quarter versus a first quarter performance in that half performance. When you put all that together, that also drives that margin performance, first half versus second half.

[Sheila Kahyaoglu, Aerospace and Defense Airlines Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Great. Thank you. Then if I could just ask a follow-up on cash. The CapEx assumption, does it still remain $5.5? Should we think about the skyline at 43 aircraft for the year, given you mentioned some delivery constraints?

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

Yes, we've held our even as we updated our free cash flow for the year from $2-$3, we've held our CapEx at $5.5. We're still holding right around that, 42, 43 aircraft for the year. That can always move around as it has the year by a few.

[Sheila Kahyaoglu, Aerospace and Defense Airlines Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolfe. Your line is live.

[Scott Group, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe]

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Glen, you said that the third quarter RASM would have been in line with seasonality if you make a few adjustments. Can you just maybe give a little bit color on the adjustments you're sort of thinking about? Then just, I don't know if I heard it yet, so maybe just share domestic versus international RASM expectations for the third quarter.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

On the seasonality between 2Q and 3Q, we had some of the days shift. The outbound 4th of July was in 2Q, which are some of the best days of the summer, as we pointed out in this. If you take that and adjust for that, we're about a point off of the normal, and hopefully, we can make that point up in the quarter. If you look back to last year, I think that's the more important comp when you see the deceleration from 1 to midpoint of -3. Last year's international RASM went between 2Q and 3Q, was up 16 points as the restrictions, travel restrictions went off in 2Q. That had that big surge in demand on a limited capacity last year.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

I think we're looking at a 2Q to 3Q, that's really right in line with what we think, what we think the seasonal norms are.

[Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Helpful. Dan, I don't know if I'm getting a little ahead of myself, but when I think about the inflection in CASM in the back half this year, that's still with a pilot deal. As we look ahead to next year, I know you've already said down low single digits, but am I wrong in thinking that the first half is gonna be better than that?

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

The pilot deal you have throughout this year. As we've talked about, you have it in every quarter, and it's about 4 points, along with the wage increase overall for the entire Delta workforce, that came through for the year.

[Dan Janki, CFO at Delta Air Lines]

When you think about next year, and you think about the, what we talked about as the low single-digits, really, we've out there with mid-single-digit capacity growth, you get that benefit. As you get into the scale and efficiency and rebuild, that is another element that we'll benefit from. We get efficiency, you won't have the repeat of the rebuild that we had this year. The offset to that is the continued movement as it relates to a couple points when you think about pilots and wages into next year. That's what gets you to low single-digits, is the general framework associated with the drivers there.

[Scott Group, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe]

Okay. All right. Thank you, guys.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan. Your line is live.

[Jamie Baker, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at JPMorgan]

Hey, good morning. Glen, does your third quarter RASM guide assume any share pickup at the expense of any competitors that may be alternating their distribution strategy or rethinking their Northeast footprint?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

You know, there's 2 questions in there. The first question is, I think our third quarter is based on what we see in the second quarter and moving forward, and there haven't been any changes to distribution strategies in the quarter. I'd say it's what we see today, just moving forward from there. On the cessation of the NEA, listen, we compete well in New York. We've had a long history of competing well in New York, and we're really confident how that as it evolves, that we'll be able to continue to win in New York, which has been our long-term strategy for 10 years, and we're not deviating from that, so.

[Jamie Baker, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at JPMorgan]

Thank you. On the corporate survey work, any shifts in how individual sectors are responding? For example, is, you know, is the messaging from your tech customers unchanged from what it's been, that sort of thing?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

No, I think we pointed out that the laggards are the ones that are most encouraged as you get to the fall. I think, you know, Ed's always said, and I agree with him 100%, that your propensity to travel is directly related to whether or not you're in the office. As we see more and more offices, trying to reopen or reopening.

[Jamie Baker, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at JPMorgan]

Mm-hmm

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

And people trying to get back into the corporations trying to get people back in the office, I think that's a great constructive backdrop for us as we head into the fall and the post-Labor Day period.

[Jamie Baker, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at JPMorgan]

That's great. Thanks for.

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Jamie, I'd like to add one additional comment there. You know, all these comparisons in terms of corporate travel, unfortunately, are still all made to 2019. We lose sight of the fact that our economy is 20%±, larger than it was in 2019. What you're talking about, actually, is there is a lot of room to improve for Corporate America on travel. I think that's part of the underpinning why we think there's, you're gonna continue to see some steady improvement here, this fall, and you're hearing it from the travel managers as well.

[Jamie Baker, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at JPMorgan]

Good. We happen to agree. Thank you, everybody.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research. Your line is live.

[Conor Cunningham, Director and Travel and Transports Analyst at Melius Research]

Hi, everyone. Thank you. Just to follow-up on Jamie's question: you do sound a bit better on corporate travel recovering in the back half, but I'm just like, just to be clear, is that in your guide, or is that additional upside, if those things do come in a little bit better?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

We have a continued slow and steady build in our guide. If it was to accelerate beyond what it's been doing, that would be upside.

[Conor Cunningham, Director and Travel and Transports Analyst at Melius Research]

Okay. That's helpful. Just on the domestic RASM, I think you guys are gonna be one of the best in the industry, if not the best. I was just curious if you could unpack what was the outperformance, though? Is that purely just your core hub rebuild and coastal investments kind of coming in at higher unit revenues? Just trying to understand what. Maybe back to Catie's question, like, the differences between, you know, regular economy seats and what Delta kind of offers out there. Thank you.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Well, I think we said that it's been continuing to be led by premium products and services. You know, our domestic rebuild has, as we've spoken about earlier, initially focused on the coastal gateways and now, right now, moving back into the core. We have the lapping of the investments we've made in the coastal gateways coming out of COVID, now producing very good returns for us, as well as the investments in the core, which of course, come in at higher unit revenues. I think it's a combination of those two factors moving together.

[Conor Cunningham, Director and Travel and Transports Analyst at Melius Research]

Thanks again.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Savanthi Syth from Raymond James. Your line is live.

[Savanthi Syth, Managing Director of Airlines and Advanced Air Mobility at Raymond James]

Hey, good morning. Just curious on the international capacity. You know, it's been growing at a faster pace than domestic, given that that's where the restoration has been to a greater degree. I was curious how long you expect international capacity growth to kind of continue to outpace domestic here?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Well, as capacity trends down as we head out of restoration into a more normal growth cycle, I think you'll see a pretty even distribution between domestic and international as we head into 2024. We really haven't given any guidance on that yet, and internally, we haven't even completed our 2024 plan yet. I would expect it to be very similar split between domestic and international.

[Savanthi Syth, Managing Director of Airlines and Advanced Air Mobility at Raymond James]

Got it. If I might just ask on the Latin entity, Glen, just, could you provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing, especially, you know, broken out between kind of near international, which recovered first and kind of the South America markets?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah, I, of course, we've been really thrilled with the results with LATAM and the improvements in our South America revenue base. South America is moving at a great clip, and again, the short and medium-haul Latin America markets were some of the first to recover, and they're still continuing to be strong, but not posting those great giant gains they did in the early part of the recovery.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Thanks, Glen. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Your line is live.

[Duane Pfennigwerth, Senior Managing Director of Equity Research at Evercore ISI]

Hey, hey, good morning, congrats on these strong results. On your transatlantic JV, I just wondered if there was any new approaches, maybe any learnings through the pandemic that will, you know, change the way you operate going forward versus maybe what you've done in the past, you know, how much each side flies, you know, things like that?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

You know, we have a great transatlantic joint venture. It was the first one and the most integrated, and one that we think has huge customer benefits, and it's always evolving. You know, and that's the great, the great. And we have great partners that want it to evolve. You know, we're continuing evaluating how we approach the marketplace together. You've seen some swaps in the fall from things that we have flown to the things that our partners are now gonna fly. I don't think there are any huge headline changes, but it's always evolving.

[Duane Pfennigwerth, Senior Managing Director of Equity Research at Evercore ISI]

Okay. Then maybe just for my follow-up on seasonally shaping capacity, it looks like nominally, ASMs peak in July, they stepped down a little bit in August, and they stepped down a little bit again in September, which seems to make some sense. Not all your peers are kind of taking that approach. In some cases, you know, August is bigger than July, et cetera. Is this just getting back to kind of your view on normal seasonality, or is this more operationally driven?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

No, absolutely, it's more normal seasonality. Of course, in the South, you have the schools going back earlier and earlier. This year, for example, schools go back in Georgia, the 1st of August. We're through the summer travel period in the South, whereas the North tends to go back after Labor Day. If you look more granularly, you'd see the, you know, the Southern, the Atlanta hub in the South trends down in the second half of August. We keep the Northern tier operating a little bit longer and then pull that down after Labor Day. We are actually getting much more back to where we want to be. As we say, we come out of restoration to a much more normal seasonality.

[Duane Pfennigwerth, Senior Managing Director of Equity Research at Evercore ISI]

That's helpful. Thank you.

[Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations at Delta Air Lines]

We'll now go to our final analyst question.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays. Your line is live.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Hey, thanks for letting me ask one here. Glen, I guess, you know, I know we're not guiding into 4Q here, but implied revenue in 4Q maybe feels a little bit softer than 3Q for the full-year. Just giving you your full-year guidance, sorry. You know, is that conservatism around the off-peak periods like we were talking about back in 1Q with booking trends that have just changed and, you know, cancel fees that or the lack of cancel fees that have changed, consumer behavior?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

I just think we know the least about 4Q right now, and as we get towards the end of this quarter, I think we'll have a much better view that we could share with you on the October call.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Okay, I appreciate that. I guess, can you talk maybe structurally, how are you approaching the off-peak periods differently than earlier this year?

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Well, I think what we have left to go in the year is we have to get through Labor Day, of course. I think we have good visibility through Labor Day. We have October, which is historically a very strong travel month for business. We'll see how that unfolds. We have the holidays, which are the peak holidays. That's all that's really left in the year. We have good bookings for the holidays. We have good visibility on that. It's really gonna depend on. I think it's potential upside, as you said earlier, is does business travel more, return more than we expect? If so, we have some good upside for the back half of the year. If not, we're gonna trend where we see today.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Okay, I appreciate it. Thank you.

[Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations at Delta Air Lines]

That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I'll now turn it over to Tim Mapes to start the media questions.

[Tim Mapes, SVP and Chief Communication Officer at Delta Air Lines]

Thank you, Julie. Matthew, if you would, please just remind the members of the media, about queuing up for the call, and we'll jump in with members of the media.

[Operator]

Certainly. At this time, we're conducting a Q&A session for media questions. If you have any questions or comments, please press Star then one on your phone. Please hold while we poll for questions. Thank you. Your first question is coming from Alison Sider, from The Wall Street Journal. Your line is live.

[Alison Sider, Reporter of Air travel Business at The Wall Street Journal]

Hey, thanks so much. Yeah, I wanted to ask about, Viasat yesterday reported it had, a deployment issue with its recently launched satellite. Just curious if that causes any potential problems for Delta's free Wi-Fi plans, either for, like, what's currently in place or, for the future rollouts, or, and if you have to consider any kind of alternatives.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Hi, Allie. Obviously, we were disappointed, as Viasat was with the news yesterday, but, you know, we're committed long-term, and they will get through this. We see no meaningful impact to where we stand currently with our domestic capacity, and we're working closely with them to make sure that domestic performance maintains what we've been seeing, which has been great. I think if anything, it may cause a delayed rollout on some of the international markets, but, you know, it's too early to tell.

[Alison Sider, Reporter of Air travel Business at The Wall Street Journal]

Got it. Okay, thanks. I also wanted to see, if Delta has any view on some of the proposals that Congress is considering around simulator training, counting towards pilot experience hours, if that's something you view favorably, or if, you know, Delta would have any plans to offer, you know, a training program of its own if the Senate proposal goes through, or how you're thinking about that?

[Company Representative at Delta Air Lines]

Hey, Alison, it's Peter. You know, Delta has not weighed in on those particular proposals. We think the way pilots are trained is obviously incredibly effective, and it's important to maintain those type of training requirements.

[Alison Sider, Reporter of Air travel Business at The Wall Street Journal]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Leslie Josephs, from CNBC. Your line is live.

[Leslie Josephs, Airline Reporter at CNBC]

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I'm also wondering if Delta has any view on raising the pilot age potentially to 67, if not beyond that at some point? With the affirmative action ruling, from last month, is Delta reviewing or looking at its current DEI policies and expecting any changes it has to make? Thanks.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Leslie, I'll take the first. We don't have a point of view on that. I think that's something that, you know, within the pilot community, there's a lot of different opinions around. We'll stand by and observe and watch how that discussion unfolds. Peter will touch on the affirmative action.

[Company Representative at Delta Air Lines]

Yeah. Hello, Leslie. I will tell you, at Delta, we continue to be fully committed to our DE&I objectives. Also, we don't have an affirmative action program at Delta. We always hire the very best.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Mary Schlangenstein from Bloomberg News. Your line is live.

[Mary Schlangenstein, US Airline Reporter at Bloomberg News]

Hi, good morning. Thank you. With your expectation that the corporate travel recovery is gonna slowly continue during the fall, will that step up enough that it'll make up for any decline in leisure travel after schools return, or do you not expect to see that historical dip in leisure travel this fall?

[Ed Bastian, CEO at Delta Air Lines]

Well, I'll just give you a view of what we do see, because domestic demands, of course, come a little bit later on. For international travel, post-Labor Day, we see very robust leisure demand continuing through the October period. Combine that with hopefully, you know, we'll get some upside surprise on the increase in business, but we're not really counting on anything more than what we see today.

[Mary Schlangenstein, US Airline Reporter at Bloomberg News]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. Your next question is coming from David Slotnick from TPG. Your line is live.

[David Slotnick, Senior Airline Business Reporter at TPG]

Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. I wondered if Delta has any contingency planning or views surrounding the legislation, potentially affecting credit card fees and charges. I know that would probably have a significant impact on your Amex revenue. Are you planning for if that works its way through, or how to make up for that or anything else? Thanks very much.

[Company Representative at Delta Air Lines]

Hey, David, it's Peter. Obviously, that's legislation that we're watching carefully, and if, in fact, it becomes the law, we will adjust accordingly. We don't really think it has a good opportunity to be ultimately signed into law.

[David Slotnick, Senior Airline Business Reporter at TPG]

Cool. Thank you.

[Glen Hauenstein, President at Delta Air Lines]

Thank you, David. Matthew, I think, that'll wrap it up for questions from members of the media.

[Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations at Delta Air Lines]

All right. Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and I hope you have a great rest of your summer, and we'll talk to you in October.

[Operator]

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation today.

Participants

Executives

• Dan Janki, CFO
• Ed Bastian, CEO
• Glen Hauenstein, President
• Julie Stewart, VP of Investor Relations
• Tim Mapes, SVP and Chief Communication Officer
• Company Representative

Analysts

• Alison Sider, Reporter of Air travel Business at The Wall Street Journal
• Brandon Oglenski, Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays
• Catie O'Brien, Lead U.S. Airline and Aircraft Lessor Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Conor Cunningham, Director and Travel and Transports Analyst at Melius Research
• David Slotnick, Senior Airline Business Reporter at TPG
• Duane Pfennigwerth, Senior Managing Director of Equity Research at Evercore ISI
• Helane Becker, Managing Director and Senior Advisor at TD Cowen
• Jamie Baker, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at JPMorgan
• Leslie Josephs, Airline Reporter at CNBC
• Mary Schlangenstein, US Airline Reporter at Bloomberg News
• Michael Linenberg, Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Ravi Shanker, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley
• Savanthi Syth, Managing Director of Airlines and Advanced Air Mobility at Raymond James
• Scott Group, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe
• Sheila Kahyaoglu, Aerospace and Defense Airlines Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies