Olivier Le Peuch
CEO at SLB
The offshore rig count will be higher than the land rig count increase. This momentum is driven by the economics of offshore assets, where the FID now, the vast majority of FID are below $50, hence favorably positioned for FID. Also, the geologic and the low carbon nature of most of the assets, accessibility to this resource, and is both oil and gas. Offshore is having a resurgence that is translating into a very significant pipeline of FID, and we see it across not only the IOCs and independents that are capturing this opportunity, but also the NOC that have placed a bet on offshore, as you can see from Brazil to Middle East or the North Sea. We see this happening at scale. We see also the emergence of a second leg of FID and future offshore expansion driven by exploration appraisal. Exploration appraisal is happening in many country. There are many rounds of licensing rounds happening, a lot of exploration and appraisal is happening to find this next reserve and develop. Offshore is there to stay, and not only in 2024, 2025, but beyond, as we can see, and with the second leg materializing. Beyond that, obviously, Middle East has made a significant commitment of capacity expansion, both in oil of four million barrels or so, and in gas for regional consumption, displacing oil for energy or for generating some blue ammonia or blue hydrogen products, as well as further expanding their energy export in Qatar, particularly. The Middle East capacity expansion is leading to, as we have been quoting, record level of investment from this year onward, and is not set to again stop in 2024, as the vast majority of this capacity expansion are towards the H2 of the decade, 2027 or 2030 for some of the target. What we have seen lately, and the feedback through the visits we have had, is that the duration of the cycle as we were characterizing a year ago, is actually extending and is, to be believed, prolonging to the right, and with combination of offshore resurgence being very solid and Middle East being capacity expansion beyond the next three years.