ASML Q3 2024 Pre Recorded Earnings Report

ASML EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $5.80
• Consensus EPS: $5.24
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.56
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

ASML Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $8.21 billion
• Expected Revenue: $7.66 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$550.25 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

ASML Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024 Pre Recorded
• Date: 10/15/2024
• Time: N/A
• Conference Call Date: Monday, October 14, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 8:00PM ET

ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) (NASDAQ: ASML) is a Dutch company that develops, manufactures and services advanced photolithography systems used to produce semiconductor chips. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, ASML supplies capital equipment and associated software and services that enable semiconductor manufacturers to pattern the intricate circuits on silicon wafers. The company is widely recognized for its leadership in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography as well as its deep ultraviolet (DUV) platforms used across multiple process nodes.

ASML's product portfolio includes EUV and DUV lithography machines, light sources, imaging optics and control software, together with spare parts, upgrades and field services. Its systems are integrated into customers' fabs and supported through installation, maintenance, refurbishment and application engineering to optimize throughput and yield. The company collaborates closely with suppliers and technology partners to develop the optics, illumination and source technologies required for increasingly fine patterning.

Founded in 1984 as a technology joint venture out of the Netherlands, ASML has grown into a global supplier serving major semiconductor manufacturers and foundries across Asia, North America and Europe. The company has expanded capabilities through strategic partnerships and acquisitions to secure critical subsystems, including light-source and optics technologies, while maintaining a strong emphasis on long-term research and development to keep pace with Moore's Law-driven demand for denser, more powerful chips.

ASML is a publicly traded company listed on European and U.S. exchanges and is led by an executive team experienced in semiconductor equipment and systems businesses. Because its tools are central to advanced node production, ASML occupies a strategic position in the semiconductor supply chain, supplying the specialized equipment many leading chipmakers rely on to manufacture high-performance processors and memory devices.

ASML Q3 2024 Pre Recorded Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Q3 net sales reached SEK 7.5 billion, above guidance thanks to stronger DPV sales and higher installed base management revenues (€1.54 billion), with a backlog still exceeding €36 billion.
• For Q4 the company forecasts net sales of SEK 8.8–9.2 billion, installed base revenues of around SEK 1.9 billion, and a 49–50% gross margin, noting a ~3.5% margin dilution from recognizing two high-NA systems.
• EUV technology progress remains strong as customers shift to the 3,800 low-NA tool (37% throughput improvement to 220 wafers/hour) with full-spec shipments early next year, while high-NA systems continue on track with ~8 nm resolution and over 10,000 wafers exposed.
• Market dynamics show robust AI-driven demand but more gradual recovery in logic and memory segments, causing fab pushouts and limited capacity additions, while China orders normalize to about 20% of total revenue.
• 2025 outlook is revised to €30–35 billion in net sales (down from €30–40 billion) and a gross margin of 51–53% (vs. targeted 54–56%), reflecting fewer low-NA tool orders and a reduced China business share.

Presentation

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

Total net sales for the quarter came in at EUR 7.5 billion , which is above guidance. A couple of reasons for that. First off, we had stronger DUV sales, but also the Installed Base Management business was higher than expected at EUR 1.54 billion . Gross margin for the quarter came in at 50.8%, which is within guidance. Net income at EUR 2.1 billion . Net bookings came in at EUR 2.6 billion , which, you know, I think is a reflection of some of the market dynamics that we're gonna talk about later on.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

Part of the 2.6 billion was EUR 1.4 billion for EUV systems, and I would remind everyone that you know we ended the quarter with a backlog of still over EUR 36 billion. All in all, I would say you know it's been a solid quarter in terms of financials, but also a quarter where there have been quite some market dynamics. For Q4, we expect a significant step-up in sales. We expect total net sales between EUR 8.8 billion and EUR 9.2 billion. Part of that big step up again in the installed base revenue, we expect that to arrive around to EUR 1.9 billion.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

A couple of reasons for that again. I think first off, we expect to meet certain very specific performance targets for EUV, and that should translate into revenue directly related to that, and we also have a few EUV performance upgrades or productivity upgrades that we expect to kick in in Q4, so that's the reason why we're looking at an installed base revenue number that is quite a bit higher than what we've seen in the past couple of quarters. Gross margin, we expect to land somewhere between 49% and 50%, so what are the moving parts in that gross margin?

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

First off, you know, we have the installed base business that we just alluded to, and obviously, that is going to drive up the gross margin. But then we're also looking at the dilutive impact of recognizing two High-NA systems, 'cause that is the expectation. We have two High-NA systems that we expect to recognize in revenue in Q4, and we expect a dilutive impact of that revenue recognition on the gross margin for the quarter of approximately 3.5%.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

If you then take that guidance and translate that into the full performance for 2024, we're looking at the midpoint, at around EUR 28 billion in revenue, and the gross margin for the full year, at that midpoint, landing at approximately 50.6%, which I think is in line with what we said at the beginning of the year when we said that the gross margin was going to be a little bit down from what we had in 2023. I think on the technology side with EUV, we're making really good progress, both on Low-NA and on High-NA.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

If we start with Low-NA 0.33, we see more and more customers shifting their demand towards the 3800, which is no surprise, 'cause, as you know, the 3800 shows a 37% improvement in terms of throughput over the 3600D model. So we also expect for Q4, for the majority of the Low-NA EUV tools to be 3800s. We've demonstrated in the past quarter in our factory the full productivity for the 3800E tool. so that gets you to 220 wafers per hour throughput.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So that's been demonstrated, and we're on track to, you know, to get the systems in that full specification to our customers starting early next year. So early next year, we will start shipping the 3800 at that full 220 wafers per hour specification. When it comes to High-NA, as I just mentioned, we're close to having the site acceptance test concluded with the customer for the two systems that we've already shipped, and we expect that to conclude in this quarter, and that also leads to the revenue recognition that I talked about before. We're actually in the process of shipping a third High-NA tool to a second major customer, so I think that is very much on track.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

The value proposition for High-NA, I think is pretty clear. We've demonstrated a resolution of eight nanometers, and that actually gives you approximately 3x increase in transistor density in comparison to a Low-NA system. Very importantly, we've told you that, you know, quite a few wafers are being exposed, and at this stage, I think we have. We've exposed or customers have exposed around 10,000 wafers. Multiple customers, logic customers and memory customers, both in our joint ASML-imec High-NA lab, but also in the field.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

We've presented in September at a lithography conference the latest data as far as that is concerned, and I think those latest data really show that there are significant benefits in imaging, in overlay, and in contrast. That really, you know, is a clear value proposition to drive down the cost of patterning for our customers. I would say all in all, if you look at the progress made on the 3800 tool and also the progress and the feedback that we're getting from customers on High-NA, very much on track and, you know, very much delivering the value to our customers that we anticipated.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

There have been quite some market dynamics in the past couple of months. Very clearly, the strong performance of AI, you know, clearly continues, and I think it continues to come with quite some upside. But you also see that in other market segments, it takes longer to recover. The recovery is there, but it's more gradual than, you know, what we anticipated before, and you know, it will continue in twenty twenty-five, and that does lead to some customer cautiousness. If you take that element, you translate that to the different market segments, then, you know, clearly this more gradual recovery has an impact on logic.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

And if you combine that with, you know, very specific competitive, you know, competitive issues in the foundry business, you do see that for some customers, there is a slower ramp of new nodes, and that leads to, you know, some fab pushouts, and obviously also leads to a change and a delay in litho demand, litho demand timing. If you look at the memory business, you know, this customer cautiousness that I talked about leads to limited capacity additions. While at the same time, we do see a lot of focus and strong demand when it comes to technology transitions, and particularly as it is related to High Bandwidth Memory and to DDR5.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So again, there, anything related to AI is strong, but other than that, there are limited capacity additions. Also important, the China business, and we do expect, you know, the China business and the percentage of the China business as part of our total business to show a more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business. In summary, longer-term trends are still very positive, showing good signs of upside. But the development in the past couple of months and the customer-specific circumstances that I mentioned have now led to a more gradual growth curve for our business.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So, you know, at our Investor Day in 2022, we looked at 2025, and we provided market scenarios for 2025, between EUR 30 billion and EUR 40 billion. If you recognize the recent market dynamics that I just alluded to, we do see the 2025 revenue actually moving to the lower half of that range. So therefore, our expectation now is that we're gonna see, you know, net sales in 2025 between EUR 30 billion and EUR 35 billion, primarily driven by a significant reduction in low-NA EUV tools. We expect that at the midpoint of our expectation, we expect that to be below 50 tools for 2025.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

And also, what I just mentioned in terms of China, we do see China trending, you know, towards more historically normal percentages in our business. So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year, which would also be, you know, in line with its representation in our backlog. So again, referring back to our Investor Day of 2022, there we said we're targeting a gross margin between 54% and 56%. A very important driver of that improvement of the gross margin was on EUV Low-NA. Because remember, on the one hand, obviously, we are we're gonna see 2025 be dominated when it comes to the Low-NA business by the 3800 tool.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

As we said before, and which is also actually happening, that 3800 tool, you know, does come with a higher ASP and, you know, a good improvement in the gross margin. That actually manifested itself. Another element, you know, why we believe that the gross margin was going to be up, was that we expected a significant increase in the number of EUV units for 2025. I think as a result of what I just described in terms of the demand, that increase in numbers is actually not happening, right? As we said, we expect less than 50 Low-NA EUV tools at the midpoint of our guidance.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So that has a you know a significant impact on our gross margin expectation. And we also talked about the China business. As you know, a lot of the China business actually is on immersion. Immersion, as you know, comes with significantly higher gross margin than the corporate gross margin. So the fact that there is some pressure there also means that we're having some pressure on the gross margin. So it's those two combined, as a result of which we're now looking at a gross margin expectation for 2025 of between 51 and 53%.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

If we then compare the gross margin, that expectation of 51%-53%, to where we are today, so the gross margin for 2024, I think on a positive note, obviously, there is the improvement of the gross margin for the 3800. So per tool, obviously, a 3800 has a better gross margin than a 3600, so that is manifesting itself clearly. We see improvements in EUV service margin, so that helps. And also, for High-NA, we see that, you know, the gross margin that we're gonna recognize in 2025 will improve. We get better at producing the High-NA tools. We get, you know, faster in installing them.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

And also in 2025, we're gonna see the first high-volume 5200 tools being recognized in revenue. So all that helps, but the flip side, obviously, is that we're gonna see more High-NA tools being recognized in revenue in 2025 in comparison to 2024, and that has a dilutive effect. So OpEx in 2024, we expect to end around EUR 5.4 billion. So that's a combination of R&D and SG&A. If we look at 2025, I expect that we're gonna end somewhere at the upper limit of the bandwidth that we gave at the Investor Day in 2022. So that will be approximately EUR 6.1 billion. We are still, you know, very much driving a very comprehensive R&D roadmap.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So, you know, we're progressing on that as planned. And that means that the wage inflation, obviously, that we incurred after twenty twenty-one, we're able to absorb that wage inflation, you know, within the bandwidth of the guidance that we've given in twenty twenty-two. So if we look at the free cash flow in twenty twenty-four, you know, the things that drove down the free cash flow, first off, lower order intake, because lower order intake obviously comes with less down payments. And secondly, as you know, we continue to prepare for, you know, for an uptick in the business. So we've taken in quite a bit of inventory, particularly, I would say, on EUV.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So this is inventory that relates to High-NA, but also inventory that relates to Low-NA. You know, we're still preparing for that future ramp, and that means lower down payments, higher inventory, obviously creating pressure on the free cash flow. You know, if the business comes back, then obviously, those two dynamics should, you know, become a positive for us. Because that means that as soon as we restart orders coming back in, that will also lead to more significant down payments for us. And obviously, also, it would lead to a normalization of the inventory, you know, to the extent that indeed the inventory that we now have is being shipped to customers.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

So with the normalization of the business, we would also expect a normalization in our cash, in our cash conversion. In terms of the capital allocation policy, it really hasn't changed, right? So, you will continue to see us invest in our roadmap. You will continue to see us invest in capacity, you know, because we firmly believe in the continued growth of the business. You will see us do that. You know, we continue to plan for growing dividends, and also in Q3, you know, we're looking at an interim dividend of EUR 1.52 to be paid. Share buybacks will happen with excess cash.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

To the extent that excess cash manifests itself, you know, we will use that, and you know, we will use that in buying back shares. If you look at the long-term outlook, I believe the growth drivers are still very much intact. The secular growth drivers are clear, and they are strong. I think, you know, if you look at AI, very, very strong, very clear, and you know, undisputed, taking an increasing share in the business of our customers. I think that is going very strongly. Also, if you look at energy transition, electrification, et cetera, those secular trends are very, very much intact. It expands the application space for, you know, both advanced and mature nodes.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

That also means that we will continue to prepare for new fab openings that are, you know, planned by customers. Yes, you know, there might be some delays here and there, but still, if you look at the planned fab openings in the next couple of years, it is pretty significant, and as you know, it really is across the globe. So as I mentioned before, you know, we continue to build capacity to respond to that significant demand increase, as we expected for the remainder of this decade. You know, I'm very happy to see many of you at our Investor Day on 14th November the 14th in 2024, and this will be the main topic of conversation.

[Roger Dassen, CFO at ASML]

You know how we see the market, how we look at 2030, and the journey towards 2030. How we look at the market, how we look at litho intensity as a key driver on the roadmaps of our customers. So I really hope to see you all there, and I look forward to having a good and solid discussion there.

Participants

Executives

• Roger Dassen, CFO