Waste Connections Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Waste Connections EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.35
• Consensus EPS: $1.30
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.05
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.17

Waste Connections Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.34 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.30 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$42.12 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +13.30%

Waste Connections Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 10/23/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, October 24, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 8:30AM ET

Waste Connections (NYSE:WCN) (NYSE: WCN) is a North American integrated waste services company that provides a range of solid waste and environmental services to municipal, commercial, industrial and residential customers. The company offers collection, transportation, transfer, disposal and recycling services, and operates an extensive network of transfer stations and disposal facilities. Waste Connections positions itself as a provider of infrastructure-driven waste solutions across many regions of the United States and Canada.

The company’s operating activities include routine curbside and commercial collection, roll-off and container services, operation of landfills and transfer stations, and recycling and resource recovery programs. In addition to traditional solid waste management, Waste Connections delivers specialty services such as industrial and environmental services for customers with complex handling, hauling or disposal needs. Its integrated model ties collection routes to transfer and disposal capacity, which helps manage costs and service continuity.

Waste Connections is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker WCN and serves a broad geographic footprint across the U.S. and Canada. The company emphasizes operating efficiency, regulatory compliance and local community relationships in the markets it serves. Senior leadership and governance focus on maintaining service reliability, expanding infrastructure where needed, and pursuing opportunities that fit its infrastructure-centric, regional growth strategy.

Waste Connections Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• In Q3, the company delivered 6.8% core pricing in solid waste, 90 basis points sequential volume growth and a 33.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, leading to an upward revision of full-year 2024 revenue to $8.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $2.91 billion.
• Waste Connections closed a record amount of private company acquisitions in 2024—over $700 million in annualized revenue—including Royal Waste in New York City, positioning it as the largest fully integrated hauler under the city’s new franchise model.
• Voluntary employee turnover fell for the eighth consecutive quarter, with a more than 40% reduction and over 50% fewer open positions, which the company expects will drive further margin expansion in 2025.
• The board approved a 10.5% increase to the regular quarterly cash dividend—the 14th consecutive annual double-digit raise—highlighting strong free cash flow generation and capital return capacity.
• Recycled commodity values dropped roughly 15% since quarter end due to port strike slowdowns and weaker demand, with an additional 5%–10% decline anticipated in Q4, pressuring commodity recovery revenues.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to the Waste Connections Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Conference call. All participants will be on the listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key, followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ronald J. Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Thank you, operator, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our third quarter results and to provide an update to our full year 2024 outlook, a detailed outlook for the fourth quarter, as well as some early thoughts about 2025. I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO, and other members of our leadership team. As noted in our earnings release, we are extremely pleased by the strength of our operating and financial results in the period, positioning us for another increase to our full year 2024 outlook, with momentum as we look ahead to 2025. Solid waste growth, led by 6.8% core pricing, was supplemented by incremental acquisition contributions and 90 basis points sequential improvement in solid waste volumes during the period to drive results above expectations.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Solid operational execution enabled us to deliver adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.7% in the third quarter, as we expected, up 120 basis points year-over-year, overcoming margin dilution from acquisitions closed during the quarter and initial storm-related impacts at quarter end. Our results also reflect continued progress in employee retention, with voluntary turnover improving for the eighth consecutive quarter, bringing multiyear reductions to over 40%, as we continue to invest in our most important asset, our people. Further, we anticipate that our innovative approaches to drive continued improvement in employee engagement and retention should position us in 2025 for another year of above-average underlying margin expansion in solid waste collection, transfer, and disposal. Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the Safe Harbor Provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement included in our October 23 Earnings Release and in greater detail in Waste Connections's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date. On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently. I will now turn the call back over to Ron.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. We are extremely pleased by our operational execution in Q3, driving financial results above expectations as we continue to see the benefits of our focus on quality of revenue and human capital, while also delivering a record year of private company acquisition activity. Beginning with solid waste organic growth, core pricing of 6.8% was in line with our expectations. Reported volumes stepped up sequentially by 90 basis points as we began to anniversary a portion of the purposeful shedding we've referenced in previous periods and also as a result of more special waste activity, including some Q4 projects which were pulled forward to Q3. Additionally, our results reflect incremental acquisition contributions, with better-than-expected performance from acquisitions we closed earlier in the year, plus the impact of transactions closed during Q3.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Most notably, we acquired Royal Waste Services, one of the preeminent haulers in New York City, with best-in-class collection, transfer, and recycling facilities. Not to be confused with Royal Carting, located further upstate. Royal Waste is prominently located in New York City, where they were awarded five of the commercial zones as part of the Department of Sanitation's announced franchise system. As such, our acquisition of Royal Waste complements our already well-established operations in New York City, where we were originally awarded 12 commercial zones. We are now comfortably the largest and only fully integrated player in New York City. On the subject of New York City and its transition to a franchise model, we are pleased to report that the initial phase is proceeding at or better than we expected.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Based on our experience in September in the pilot zone, we believe that the opportunity for growth and operating efficiencies should exceed our initial expectations, particularly given our already well-established and now expanded footprint in the city. What we've recognized from the onset of this franchise process was the critical importance of the location of assets within the city and the advantages they provide. Additionally, we anticipated the benefit from the optionality that would be afforded by our strategic acquisition 14 months ago of the Arrowhead Landfill in Alabama, providing rail access from markets in the Northeast. With recent peak days running at over twice our initial 3,500 ton per day throughput, activity at Arrowhead is also exceeding plan and benefiting several of our Northeast markets, including New York City, as we work to optimize waste flows and disposal capacity utilization within our own network of facilities.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Moreover, we continue to evaluate incremental acquisition opportunities in the East as a result of this important element in our integration strategy. The franchise model being rolled out in New York City has transformed what was already a very good market for us into one with outstanding long-term value creation potential. Getting back to the broader topic of acquisitions, as anticipated, we are on track for a record amount of private company acquisitions in 2024, our biggest year since our founding in 1997. To date, we have signed or closed over $700 million in annualized private company revenue. This includes solid waste franchises, new competitive markets, E&P waste facilities, and several tuck-ins of operations in or adjacent to our current footprint in solid waste.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

We continue to maintain our focus on solid waste, with a proven market selection strategy and a track record for integrating and maximizing value. As we say, more important than completing acquisitions is their implementation, and as noted earlier regarding Q3, we're pleased to see performance at our acquired operations above our expectations. Additionally, acquisitions completed in 2024 should provide for approximately 2% or more in acquisition rollover contribution in 2025, with the potential for that to grow from additional transactions in Q4 and next year. While maintaining capacity for outsized acquisition activity, we continue to reinvest in the business and expand our return of capital to shareholders.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

As anticipated, the strength of our operating performance, free cash flow generation, and balance sheet positioned us for another double-digit increase to our quarterly cash dividend, demonstrating once again the compatibility of funding our differentiated growth strategy and acquisition activity, along with an increasing return of capital to shareholders. To that end, our board of directors authorized a 10.5 increase to our regular quarterly cash dividend, our fourteenth consecutive annual double-digit increase since the initiation of the dividend in 2010. While executing our growth strategy, we've demonstrated significant progress towards achievement of our sustainability-related targets, which are inextricably linked to our focus on value creation in our business, as highlighted in our 2024 sustainability report being released today.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

In fact, with multiyear reductions of 40% in emissions intensity and 13% in absolute emission declines, our results demonstrate that outsized growth is compatible with the achievement of our long-term aspirational ESG targets. I am particularly pleased by the notable momentum from reductions in voluntary turnover and the related impacts to safety-related metrics. Both are what's showing ongoing improvement in 2024. In Q3, voluntary turnover was down for the eighth consecutive quarter, for a total reduction of over 40% from the peak in 2022, and we have seen a corresponding reduction in open positions, down over 50% in that period. Similarly, safety incident rates have shown continuous improvement, now down over 15% from 2022 levels, as we reinforce our most important operating value and work every day to recognize and proactively address unsafe behaviors.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Our updated sustainability report also highlights our progress on increasing resources recovered through both the processing of recyclables and the recovery and beneficial use of landfill gas through renewable natural gas, or RNG, generation. We continue to make progress towards the development of our portfolio of new RNG facilities expected online in 2026. Now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the third quarter and to provide our updated full year 2024 outlook and a detailed outlook for Q4. I will then wrap up with some thoughts about 2025 before heading into Q&A.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Thank you, Ron. In the third quarter, revenue of $2.338 billion was above our outlook and up $274 million, or 13.3% year-over-year. Acquisitions completed since the year ago period contributed about $161 million of revenue in the quarter, net of divestitures. Core pricing of 6.8% ranged from over 5% in our primarily exclusive market Western Region, to up to approximately 7.5% in our competitive regions. Volumes improved sequentially by 90 basis points, with gains across several geographies, most notably our Eastern Region, where acquisition-related shedding and the non-renewal of certain municipal contracts had impacted prior periods.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Additionally, activity picked up in certain markets, most notably in our Western Region, where total volumes were up 3% year-over-year, which would be a strong quarter even in a high-growth environment. This outsized increase was led by special waste activity, up 20% year-over-year in our Western Region. Looking year-over-year at other lines of business, roll-off pulls per day were down 3% on revenue per pull, up about 5%. September was the weakest month, down 5% year-over-year, and reflected the initial impact of Hurricane Helene in several markets in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee... and landfill tons were down nominally year-over-year on higher MSW tons, up 5%, offset by special waste down 10% and C&D tons down 6%.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Special Waste activity in Q3, while still down year-over-year, improved sequentially in what was the toughest comp from last year. This performance includes that outsized contribution from our Western Region and reflects a few jobs getting pulled forward from Q4, a reminder of the event-driven nature and inherent lumpiness of these projects. Moving next to revenues from recovered commodities. Landfill gas sales were up 15% in Q3, due primarily to higher volumes and higher values for renewable energy credits, or RINs. And recycled commodity revenues, up 55% year-over-year ex acquisitions, were down nominally on a sequential basis as prices weakened during the quarter. Moreover, since quarter end, commodity values have dropped by approximately 15% as a result of recent slowdowns associated with the port strike and weaker demand, with the potential for another 5-10% near-term reduction in Q4.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3, as reconciled in our earnings release, increased by 17.3% year-over-year to $787.4 million. At 33.7% of revenue, our adjusted EBITDA margin was up 110 basis points sequentially from Q2 and up 120 basis points year-over-year. This outsized margin expansion was in line with the increased expectations we provided in July and reflects outperformance in our core solid waste business, where we overcame both the drag from additional acquisition contributions coming on at dilutive margins and incremental costs associated with hurricane preparation and related impacts.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Net interest expense of $80.2 million reflects a weighted average cost of debt of just over 4% on a mix of approximately 82% fixed and 18% variable rate debt, with an average tenor of almost 10 years. Leverage moved nominally in the quarter to about 2.71 times debt to EBITDA. Our tax rate for Q3 was 23%, slightly lower than expected, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow of $1.4 billion, or 15.7% of revenue, is on track for our full-year 2024 adjusted free cash flow outlook of $1.2 billion. I will now provide an updated full-year 2024 outlook and a detailed outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. We encourage investors to review these factors carefully. Our outlook assumes no significant change in underlying economic trends. It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period. Looking first at our updated outlook for the full year, as provided for and reconciled in our earnings release.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Revenue is now estimated at approximately $8.9 billion, up $150 million from our original outlook, and adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now estimated at approximately $2.91 billion, up $50 million from our original outlook. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.7% reflects a 120 basis point year-over-year increase for 2024, and adjusted free cash flow of $1.2 billion is in line with our original outlook. Looking next at Q4. Revenue is estimated to be approximately $2.24 billion, and adjusted EBITDA is estimated at approximately $740 million, or 33% of revenue. Normalized for the sequential decline in commodity values, special waste timing, and incremental dilution from acquisitions completed during Q3, margin expansion is expected to be comparable to recent quarters.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Any improvement in commodity-driven revenues or incremental volumes associated with hurricane-related cleanup activity would be additive to our outlook for Q4. Depreciation and amortization expense for the fourth quarter is estimated at about 13.4% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $55 million, or about $0.15 per diluted share, net of taxes. Interest expense, net of interest income in Q4, is estimated at approximately $82 million. Finally, our effective tax rate in Q4 is estimated at about 23.5%, subject to some variability. Now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Okay, thank you, Mary Anne. Again, we are quite pleased that our financial results continue to track above the increased expectations we communicated in July, setting us up for another increase to our full-year outlook to revenue of $8.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.91 billion. That puts our 2024 year-over-year growth at over 10% in revenue and over 15% in adjusted EBITDA. Additionally, we are encouraged by the ongoing improvements in employee retention and safety, which continue to provide for longer-term savings opportunities. We are also thrilled with the integration and performance of record levels of private company acquisition activity, positioning us for a strong start to 2025. Although not providing our formal outlook for 2025 until February, we're able to provide a high-level framework, assuming no change in the current economic environment.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

On that basis, we should be positioned for high single-digit Adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025 on expected mid- to high single-digit revenue growth, including price-led organic growth in solid waste, plus approximately 2% revenue carryover from the record levels of private company acquisition activity expected to be completed in 2024, with the potential for that amount to grow, depending on the pace of acquisitions. Additionally, to the extent that we see improvement in commodity values or easing of cost pressures during the year, those impacts would be additive to these preliminary thoughts. Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion would be expected to remain in the current range of 45%-50% of Adjusted EBITDA, normalized for ongoing impacts of RNG-related CapEx and closure-related outlays.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

We look forward to having better visibility on the tone of the economy, including any implications from the upcoming election, as well as expected commodity-driven activity and hurricane-related impacts when we provide our formal outlook in February. I want to conclude by recognizing our 24,000 employees who embody our core values and drive our results. Their actions speak louder than words and are a testament to the culture of accountability that we believe sets us apart. Specifically, I want to acknowledge the work of our teams to manage and address the challenges of recent severe weather, including two major hurricanes in the Southeast over a two-week period. I couldn't be prouder of their efforts to support our teams, putting safety and well-being first, while also providing essential services to promote public health and welfare under challenging conditions.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Their commitment, as demonstrated by preparedness and diligence, exemplifies servant leadership and truly changes lives. We're humbled by the commitment of all our frontline employees who strive for excellence every day. We also appreciate your time today, and with that, I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Yes, thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw it, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster, and this morning's first question comes from Kevin Chiang with CIBC.

[Kevin Chiang, Analyst at CIBC]

Hi, thanks for taking my question, and congrats on a good Q3 print there. Maybe if I could just start with the comments on the special waste. You saw some pull forward from Q4 into Q3. Just broadly speaking, are you seeing any, I guess, changes in customer activity related to the election? I'm wondering if some of this activity was pulled forward as maybe some people try to get some of this activity ahead of an election, I guess, in a couple of weeks here.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Good morning, Kevin. No, I don't think we'd say it's specifically related to elections. I mean, that can influence behavior more broadly, but we'd say specifically the projects we referenced, it was things that we had expected. You know, maybe they'd gotten delayed a couple of times, and we had them pegged for Q4, and they actually got done in Q3. It's as simple as that. And it was primarily on the West Coast, as we mentioned.

[Kevin Chiang, Analyst at CIBC]

Okay, that's, that's helpful. And then, again, congrats on the Royal Waste deal. You noted you'll have, I guess, 17 zones in total. I believe when the commercial zones are initially pushed through and approved, I think the maximum was 15. So just wondering, does that require you to divest of any zones? Or, I guess because you acquired these other 5 through M&A, that you can manage all 17, or you'll be allowed to oversee all 17 zones?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yeah. Kevin, okay, so to clarify, number one, the cap on any individual company is 15, as you rightly pointed out. However, if there is overlap, that does not necessarily count as a new incremental zone, and there was overlap in some of the zones at Royal Waste than we had. It actually made us go to 16, and so there was one zone that we in effect are swapping out of, because we would've been at 16, and that was part of the consent process with the BIC, so we are at the cap of 15 zones, not 17, and so that is how that works.

[Kevin Chiang, Analyst at CIBC]

Oh, thank you for the clarification there, and then maybe just last one for me, and I know this is tough to predict, but you know, RIN prices have been you know, north of $3 pretty consistently here. When I look at D3 pricing, it's basically at the upper end of where we've seen this trend over the past few years here. I guess the volume targets go out to 2025. Just wondering what your thoughts are as the EPA might reset these targets. Do you see risk to RIN pricing? Do you think they you know, lower the volume targets in the next three-year batch? Just any, I guess, preliminary thoughts here as we head into 2025.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

So, well, it's a reminder, you know, RINs are a commodity, not only a commodity, they're subsidized, right? So there's inherent uncertainty, which, you know, from our perspective, really underscores the importance of the hybrid strategy we've chosen and taking the opportunity to hedge opportunistically as we have this year at about $3, because there is an uncertainty. So we don't have a crystal ball any better than anyone else's. But as we said, as I said, you know, I think the way we've approached RNG more broadly in mitigating the risk of movement in RINs through the structures and then opportunistic hedges is a way to address that uncertainty.

[Kevin Chiang, Analyst at CIBC]

Thank you very much for taking my questions.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Thank you, Kevin.

[Operator]

... Thank you. And the next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

[Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Hey, hey, thanks very much. I want to pick up on the comment around the outlook for cost inflation. You know, I think in our seat looking at, you know, maybe a little bit hotter CPI and inflationary trends, a little bit of potential re-acceleration, what are you seeing in the business around the current pace of unit cost inflation? And how does that inform your thinking about pricing as we, you know, get ready for next year?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Sure. So what we see, Noah, is pretty similar to what we've seen in recent quarters, which is that inflation, cost inflation in our business continues to be in that 4%-5% range, and that wage inflation, which of course, labor being the most important driver for our numbers, sits at the high end or even above the high end of that range. So I think, you know, the read-through on that is to continue to have the need for upside spread between price and headline CPI, is what we think that means, and that's, you know, certainly what we think about as we prepare ourselves for 2025.

[Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Okay, great. And then, just a little bit of a housekeeping, on I guess combination of three Q and four Q. Mary Anne, I think you mentioned that, you know, margin expansion in four Q would be similar to the 120 basis points directionally, that you saw in three Q, but for a couple of factors. So you those aggregate factors, roughly around 30-40 basis points of margin impact, the commodities, the storms and I guess a little bit more M&A. Is that the right way to think about it?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

I'd say it's arguably even a little north of that, because if you think about what underlying margins really did in Q3, I mean, we you know adjusted for those factors that we mentioned. You know, we really delivered 34%, if you think about it. Up 150 basis points, because we overcame the incremental margin dilution. You actually had commodities weaken a little in Q3, not the big drop we saw in Q4. You had a little movement there. When I think about Q4, I'd say in the aggregate those factors that you mentioned are even north of that. They're closer to 60 basis points, which really gets you back up to that same type of level.

[Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Very helpful. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. And the next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

[Adam Bubes, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Hi, good morning. This is Adam Bubes on for Jerry Revich. Wondering if you can just update us on how landfill gas investments are tracking and how much is that set to contribute in 2024? What could be the possible incremental step up next year?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yeah. So I think, good news, bad news on, on this, Adam. You know, there is, we have brought on three new facilities in 2024 at this point, and a fourth is just going through its initiation phase to be certified. So we will get four on, line this year, and that was our expectation. There has been certainly delays in those projects, which seemingly is happening in, in most of them, both from a logistics standpoint and a permitting standpoint, but they are getting done. The four we are bringing on this year are some of our smaller ones. We will be bringing on... So it's a pretty de minimis, impact to 2024. The impact to 2025 is a little greater, but still fairly low.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Most of our large projects don't come on until the very end of 2025 and throughout 2026. So they really begin construction in 2025. So, you know, you're gonna see a little step-up improvement in 2025 over 2024, and then quite a step-up in 2026, and then a full impact as 2027 comes through on a run rate basis coming out of 2026.

[Adam Bubes, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

And then how should we be thinking about growth CapEx next year compared to 2024? And is there potential for a free cash flow conversion inflection just on a higher margin base, and as these landfill gas investments start to ramp?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

You know, we gave our preliminary framework. It is. We typically give the detailed guidance in February, as you know, and we talked about the fact that on a normalized basis, the conversion we'd expect to be similar at this point in time. You know, I can appreciate what you're asking: is there an opportunity from those incremental RNG contributions, which is why when we gave our preliminary thoughts for the year, we didn't mention either.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Obviously, Adam, the only thing I would add is, as I said, you know, we have, you know, full contribution of the full year in 2027 comes as of RNG, meaning you're effectively done with your CapEx by the end of 2026 on those, and at that point, you have the full EBITDA contribution and no real CapEx contribution, and that certainly is an inflection point to a higher level of conversion.

[Adam Bubes, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

Thank you, and the next question comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey, good morning.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Good morning, Tyler.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Hi, Tyler.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey, Mary Anne, real quick, I think you may have actually answered my question a second ago, but on the margins just in Q3, I think they were up a hundred and 20 basis points, but it sounds like M&A and the storms were maybe 30 basis points, of a drag. Is that right? Just basically getting to the fact that core margins were, let's call it, very solid this quarter.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Yes. What I'd say is 30 basis points for those two factors you said, and then, as I mentioned, there was some incremental weakness in commodities, which also influenced.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay, on that-

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

In the aggregate, 30.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay, aggregate 30. Did you give an OCC price? Can you update us on what OCC is for Q3?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Yeah.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Maybe where it is today? And then any updates on your, like, commodity sensitivity to OCC?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Sure. So, the average for Q3 was $139. And my point about the weakness, coming into the quarter, we'd expected $145, and that's where it was in July. And, you know, they've now stepped down, and about a 10% move on the basket more broadly is about $25 million.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay, perfect. And then, Ron, just I was hoping if we could get an update on Chiquita. We're about a year removed from that event escalating. You know, there's some chatter in the market, some articles in the news. But can you just help us understand the latest there, and then maybe any update on your spending plans for Chiquita here in 2024 and then into 2025? Just any broad color, I appreciate it. Thanks.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Sure, no problem. You know, the short version, Tyler, is Chiquita is proceeding, you know, basically along the same plan that we originally thought. You know, the reaction area is an area of about 39-40 acres. We've made, you know, substantial progress on the reaction, throughout the course of 2024. You know, give you some statistics. We have drilled 240 wells in and around the reaction area. That is complete. We have put submersible pumps in about 55%-60% of our wells. We will finish the remaining submersible pumps through the course of Q4, maybe a little trickle into Q1. We believe that the leachate level has effectively peaked in Q3, as we thought it would, and started to come back down by about 10%-15% recently.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Now, as we add pumps, that will go up a little bit before it really starts to drop, as we get out of the first quarter of 2025. In addition to that, we have the reaction area of about 40 acres. We have capped with a geosynthetic cap over 99% of that at this point, with only about 0.3 acres remaining to be done, and that will be done over the next three to four weeks, and then it will be fully sealed from a cap standpoint. I think most importantly, there was a unified regulatory agency oversight committee led by the EPA, along with various California state regulatory agencies and local regulatory agencies, that were all involved in the reaction very diligently on a day-to-day basis, along with our teams and our outside teams.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

That committee was abandoned by the direction of the EPA two weeks ago and returned to normal local regulatory oversight. I think that's an indication of the agency's view of, you know, where things are at, that everything that is known to be done and working and proceeding along their expectations. I would tell you that we're about where we thought we would be. You know, this is LA. This is an election year, a very contested local and state election in and around the Southern California basin with two weeks to go in the political process.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

And I would say that 95% of what you read in the media is political posturing, one day to the next, as people are scraping for votes at the final hours. I think actually the reality of the agency's response speaks to the truth, and the other is much like most political messages.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay, perfect. And then just big picture, though, there should be... I know you guys have put a finer point on it come January, February, but the spend should step down, just directionally?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Oh, sure, Tyler. With respect to as compared to 2024, yes, the spend should step down. And yes, we will update our models and have firmer numbers, but if you were looking for a placeholder for how to think about 2025, you know, based on what we know today, we'd estimate that to be in the range of $50-75 million.

[Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James]

All right. Thank you so much.

[Operator]

Thank you, and the next question comes from Konark Gupta with Scotiabank.

[Konark Gupta, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Just on the M&A, Ron, you know, you guys have done a lot of M&A this year. Obviously, it's an outsized year, clearly, and you're seeing the benefits in 2025. But as we look out, you know, obviously in your space right now, you know, the solid waste market has consolidated to a large degree. Obviously, you still have a lot of opportunities you mentioned, and then, like, you know, your competitors are obviously involved in some sort of non-solid waste, M&A processes right now. When we look out to 2025, you know, what, what are some of the opportunities that, that you'd be looking at, which may be in solid waste or outside of solid waste? And what's really the focus here?

[Konark Gupta, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Like, are you looking at more sort of from ROIC perspective or more, sort of from strategic perspective, where, sorry, where you need more density?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yeah. Well, I mean, a lot of, a lot of things within that question. Look, you know, the, the M&A market is unchanged. It remains robust... You know, we continue to focus on the core solid waste opportunities. You know, I think some of our larger competitors have focused on some areas outside of solid waste for individual reasons. You know, the HSR process remains difficult, I think particularly in the more concentrated urban areas where some of our larger competitors sit more broadly, and that makes that a little more challenging on some solid waste acquisitions for them. In our more suburban and franchise markets, you know, that is less generally of an issue. And so that has provided us, I'd say, a little more of a pathway in solid waste.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

So look, we see, you know, we have no plans to pivot from the solid waste approach. Obviously, we've done some E&P stuff, which is, you know, we've been doing since two thousand and twelve. That's nothing new. And we'll continue to, you know, sort of stick to our knitting. We see a lot of opportunity there. You know, we're. There's still, you know, $4.5 billion or so of private company opportunities in markets that we are in or that are analogous to markets that we are in. You know, we look at everything on a strategic basis first, to answer your question, and then we look to, you know, an IRR, ROIC type model, no matter the size of the transaction we're looking at.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

What you're gonna see from us is more of the same, is the way I would say it. You know, I mean, I can't sit here and tell you we're gonna have a $700 million year next year, 'cause that was a record year, but I can tell you we feel comfortable with, you know, exceeding our traditional sort of $150-$250 million, you know, and it'd probably be somewhere in between. I think we're set up for a very good year.

[Konark Gupta, Analyst at Scotiabank]

That's, that's great, Caleb. Thanks. And in terms of, you know, the storms and, and the opportunities, around them, can you, can you size them up for us, maybe, you know, in terms of what, what are you looking for from cleanup perspective, as well as, you know, some of these communities will all obviously be rebuilding, so there might be some construction activity required there. So any thoughts on the opportunity there in the next, few months?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yeah, you know, look, I think you know, we're only less than a couple of weeks into the aftermath of two pretty devastating hurricanes, you know, between Helene and Milton, as you know. And I think, let's say, as we said in our comments, look, initially, in that first month to two months after the hurricane, you know, it initially impacts you a little negatively on some of your cost structure, and just the market has to settle down, and people have to get back to and figure out what their insurance opportunities are, et cetera. But then, what we see in the generally three to four quarters following that is we see if our landfills are positioned well, that we see, you know, a reasonable opportunity.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Now, I'm not, I'm not saying this is the case because we don't know. It's too early, right? But, you know, Hurricane Ian, which was the last major hurricane that hit at the end of 2022, you may or may not know, but we reported about $15 million in incremental revenue at our landfill in Western Florida on the following four quarters of the hurricane. Now, in the case of Hurricane Ian, we really only had one landfill in the area of impact. This time, we've got two, arguably three. So, you know, if it's similar, we should see, you know, probably something in north of that. But it's really too early to tell you.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

But, you know, that gives you an idea of the type of impacts that a major hurricane can have, depending on your asset positioning.

[Konark Gupta, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Great, Caleb. Thanks so much. I appreciate the time.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yep.

[Operator]

Thank you, and the next question comes from Chris Murray with ATB Capital Markets.

[Chris Murray, Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Yeah, thanks, folks. Good morning. Ron, maybe can you spend some time talking a little bit about the E&P business? You know, not only kind of the conventional business, but maybe if we get some color, maybe on how the integration of the Secure assets are going. And I think you also made comments in your script, that you actually had maybe done some small E&P acquisitions. So, you know, any color on how you're seeing the business evolving, and then and that integration going would be helpful. Thank you.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Sure. Thank you, Chris. You know, our E&P business right now is performing very well. You know, you know, I'd say we're sort of firing on all cylinders within our legacy business in the U.S. It's up about 10% year-over-year, despite rig activity being down. That is led by a strong activity in the Permian. Our R360 Canada business, which is what we call the former Secure business you referenced, is in line and actually better in revenue and EBITDA than our original expectations that we provided on that transaction. We have done an additional bolt-on acquisition to R360 Canada this year. We have done another additional bolt-on acquisition in the Permian to solidify our position.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

So you know, look, our E&P business is a disposal and transfer business. That is what it has always been, and that is why it's such a high-margin business. We're not in any logistics component business or transportation business within any E&P. We are really just purely a disposal business for solids and some piped water. You know, right now, I would tell you that business is about a run rate of $550 million. It's about $300 million in the U.S., about $250 million in Canada. So I think that puts it probably about 5.8%-6% of total revs, you know, about 8.2% of EBITDA. You know, we're very comfortable with those numbers and those percentages.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

But, you know, I think if you stick to the disposal piece of this business, you know, that's a 50% type business, like our disposal businesses and our normal solid waste as well. So that's how we think of the business, and we'll continue to do some more there, opportunistically. I don't ever see it becoming more than it is as a percentage, but it's a good business.

[Chris Murray, Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. That's helpful. My other question, and it kind of goes a bit to the people and culture piece of it. So, I think you made the comment that, you know, turnover is down about 40%. So, you know, maybe a little bit of color around, you know, how what that means. I'm assuming that would take your turnover number into the low double digits, but, you know, maybe if you want to clarify that. But the other piece of that, and when I think about doing such large numbers of acquisitions in a year, and I appreciate that, you know, it's not a massive number of folks relative to the rest of the organization.

[Chris Murray, Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

But, you know, any thoughts around, you know, the kind of efforts that you have to go through in terms of integrating all of these businesses, in terms of either servant leadership or some of the cultural attributes for Connections that are maybe a little bit unique? And, you know, how do you preserve that culture as you continue to get bigger, especially if you keep on this pace of acquisitions?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yeah. Well, very good question, and number one, I think you're actually hitting on arguably the most important thing that we do and the greatest differentiator of our model and culture, to be quite honest, and I'll tell you why. But let me answer your question first. You know, we reduced total turnover on a run rate basis in Q3 to about 24% total, but our voluntary turnover, which is what we focus on the most, is down, you know, in the 13.5%-14% range, and that is a you know, quite dramatic drop over the last 5 or 6 quarters.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Our target is to get that total turnover down from 24%, down into the 19%-20% level in 2025, and get that voluntary down into the 10% level from the 13.5% or so it is now. So we believe, those are, you know, again, value drivers that we'll see that'll help outsize margin growth in 2025. Secondly, you know, look, although we, you know, have a record amount of transactions, you know, $700 million in revenue, it'll end up being about 30-35 deals. You know, when you think about it in that way, you know, your average deal is $20 million-$25 million, you know, the largest one being about $200 million, many being, you know, sub-$10 million.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

And so, you know, we operate from five hundred and seventy locations, with over, you know, three hundred and fifty P&L managers. The bite size of our, acquisition transactions allows for very fast assimilation, and our and our decentralized operating structure puts that responsibility for cultural integration at a local level, with our district management team, along with support from our divisional and regional and corporate teams. So we view speed of integration, as a huge cultural issue, to changing trajectory of margin performance of a deal, safety performance of a deal, turnover performance of a deal, pricing performance of a deal. You know, traditionally, those are not real strengths of private companies. Sometimes they are, such as in the case of Royal Waste that I mentioned, but they're somewhat unique.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

So, speed and the insertion generally of a historical Waste Connections operating manager, financial manager, marketing manager, is critical. And I think that, you know, we avoid cultural dilution by that approach, because otherwise, M&A is something that can affect cultural dilution very quickly. And our servant leadership, you know, led culture, as we define it, puts the auspice on our people to bring that team that we acquired up to our standard and help them be successful as quick as possible. So, you know, it's somewhat, to be honest, the secret sauce of what we do.

[Chris Murray, Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. That's helpful. All right, folks. Thanks very much.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. And the next question comes from James Schumm with TD Cowen.

[James Schumm, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one, just what are you seeing in terms of your churn rates in your non-franchise markets and your ability to maintain price increases at these levels?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

...Yeah, I mean, what I would tell you, James, is that it continues to improve. We were looking at this obviously in preparation for our budgeting process for 2025, in preparation for this call, seeing how we're doing year to date in all of our areas, and it continues to improve. Our churn rate now is lower than it was in 2021, coming out of the pandemic, and definitely lower than hyperinflation of 2022 and 2023. We are back to sort of a pre-2020 level or thereabout, and obviously, you know, when you have hyperinflation and you're putting in double-digit type rate increases, you're gonna see sort of maximum churn rates, so that's expected. But we are seeing that continuing to improve.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

You know, we target a retention of our price increases of, you know, north of 85%-90%. We still remain comfortable that, you know, with those numbers, and that's what we're getting, and again, look, you also saw our volume step up 90 basis points. Some of that is less impact anniversarying of contracts we shed, but some of it is also some improvement in churn.

[James Schumm, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, great. Thank you. And then just regarding Arrowhead, are you diverting such large volumes of waste from the Northeast such that it could impact pricing at Northeast landfills? Or do you believe that your Arrowhead volumes will have a de minimis impact there?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

I believe, in aggregate, they would have a de minimis. I think, you know, the reality is much of what we're diverting, and to use that term, you know, I'd say it's internalizing is volumes that were, you know, of ours that were going to a third party until we got the capacity at Arrowhead and other sites to be able to do it. So no, I do not believe so. And in fact, in some cases, we're diverting our own volume to be able to take higher-priced volume from the third-party markets in local areas where they don't have as much choice. So if anything, I think it's actually a boost to disposal pricing in the Northeast on a sustained basis.

[James Schumm, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Okay, great. Thank you. I'll turn it back.

[Operator]

Thank you, and the next question is from Sabahat Khan with RBC Capital Markets.

[Sabahat Khan, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Great. Thanks, and good morning. We talked a little bit about this last quarter as the macro is evolving, but just wondering, as you talk about 5%, pricing-led growth into 2025, you know, how are your perspectives evolving on the, the macro, some of the cyclical units, and just volumes in general? Maybe some of the puts and takes, if you can share on the volume front. Thanks.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Sure. So just to clarify, that preliminary framework we provided for 2025, you know, that would imply kind of mid-single digits price plus volume. And so really, where that ultimately shakes out, how much is price, what volumes ultimately look like, we'll be providing when we do give guidance in February. You know, what we can say is what we're seeing out there now and the impacts of our continued shedding and the contract nonrenewals that we've done, which is what's driving the negative volumes. You know, we're encouraged that we did see the improvement in our Western region, but we'd acknowledge, as I said in prepared remarks, 3% volume growth would be very strong, even in a strong economy. That tells you it's anomalous. That's a piece of that is just timing of special waste.

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

But again, still encouraged. If I look back to last quarter, that same Western Region had volumes of 1.5%. So underlying volumes are positive. That's a good thing, but the continued shedding or the continued impacts of that shedding would persist until we've anniversaried all of them. And so, that will dictate the pace of the volume recovery on a reported basis in 2025. So again, we'll look forward to giving you that color when we give guidance in February.

[Sabahat Khan, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Okay, great. And then, and then Ron provided a bit of color on how you think about integration of M&A. Just I guess, in a high volume year like this, sounds like the next year, maybe not as big, but still a big one. How are you guys sort of thinking about the integration of these? You know, obviously, a lot of them are maybe smaller deals, but just if you can just talk about the capacity to integrate these assets and also maybe maintain maybe a bit of an above normal, elevated pace into 2025 on the M&A front. Thanks.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Yeah. Well, first off, just to clarify again, I just said that, hey, I'm not sure that we can have another record year. It doesn't mean we won't, but as we sit here today, it's probably too early to say that. But what I did say is that we continue to believe that M&A will be elevated, and that we feel very comfortable, you know, with something in excess of our maybe historical hundred and fifty to two hundred and fifty, which is, you know, more of that couple, two, 3% type years is what we said. So I wanna clarify that.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

You know, look, if anything, I think we're better set up now, you know, because we've reduced open headcount by over 50%, through the reduction of turnover and other initiatives, and continuing to drive that lower into next year, we're better positioned to integrate more M&A than we have been, maybe ever. So it won't be. There will not be any excuse of an inability to integrate and oversee M&A as a reason there wouldn't be a record year. It would just be that that's opportunistic. I think from an ability to handle it, we're in actually very, very good shape right now.

[Sabahat Khan, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Great. Thanks very much for the call.

[Operator]

...Thank you. And the next question comes from Stephanie Yee with J.P. Morgan.

[Stephanie Yee, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Hi, good morning.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Good morning.

[Stephanie Yee, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

I wanted to ask if there's anything you're worried about as we're kind of heading into the election, any potential changes that you might anticipate for the waste industry?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

I mean, Stephanie, number one, we have no better crystal ball than you or any poll that's done every day that changes by the hour. You know, look, we have operated under both a Democratic or Republican presidency, as well as a Democratic or Republican Houses of Congress, and it's our responsibility to react what comes and to excel and do so, and we've done that, and we're confident we will continue to be. You know, I think there's puts and takes, no matter what happens, you know, within the White House or within Congress. There's nothing that we're afraid of from either.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

You know, maybe one way you could say there's incremental regulation, and some people say, "Well, that's more difficult." Well, that provides us greater pricing leverage, to be quite honest. The other way says, "Well, there'll be less regulation." Well, that provides us faster M&A track record. So I think there's benefits that you can derive from either. They look a little different, but you know, we're not overly concerned about the outcome of the election other than, you know, rhetoric that, you know, bleeds into the business, you know, and questions. So we'll you'll hear us have a plan either way to to excel next year.

[Stephanie Yee, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Okay. I appreciate that, and just a clarification question: I think there were comments that, you know, in 2025, you're still expecting above average underlying margin expansion. I know on a reported basis, there are some headwinds, like with the commodity price, maybe dilution from the M&A. But in terms of the underlying margin expansion, would you say it's similar, or you expect it to be similar in 2025 to what you anticipate you'll do in 2024? Or will it be a little less just because the pricing and cost environment is changing?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

I think what you said is accurate. I think you would see the underlying, approximate close to what you saw in 2024, which was extremely strong. But to your comment, the reported might be a little less because you have, some headwinds, particularly right now, as you said, such as, such as commodities, such as, you know, some margin dilution from typical M&A and a high level of M&A that we've done. So you know, it will still be, I think, on a reported basis, quite above normal, you know, but maybe not quite as high as 2024 because of those headwinds only.

[Stephanie Yee, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Okay, great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. And the next question comes from Jamie Somerville with Eight Capital.

[Jamie Somerville, Analyst at Eight Capital]

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was gonna ask about M&A, but you've answered that quite clearly already, in terms of, you know, you expect to exceed the $150-$250 million of deals. So I'll maybe just ask, presumably that's, you know, gross without the impact of shedding. Can you maybe give an indication of the net or the shedding impact that's reasonable to expect going forward? And, like, is shedding going to continue at a similar rate to what we've seen?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Number one, yeah, the M&A that we report is a gross dollar of run rate, acquired revenue, achieved. You are correct. We give it in each period, what its contribution is in the quarters and in the year on an actual basis. You know, the shedding is a function of underwater contracts that we elect not to renew based on either service and safety concerns or financial return concerns. You know, obviously, we've done a lot of M&A over the last three years, and so you would expect it to be, you know, exceed a little higher than normal, which is what you've seen.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

It gets called out because we've been in a flat to almost, you know, less than 1% type growth market. Historically, when we've been in a stronger GDP market, where there's, you know, real underlying non-government growth of 2%-3%, it's not called out because you're still having flat to positive volumes. That's really just more of a, you know, what's going on in the macroeconomy than anything. So, we have, we've anniversaried a lot of our, the larger things that we've shed, but, you know, we'll continue to be shedding. I would expect it to come down as we go forward, but it'll still be there. This is just really more a function of what's going on in the macroeconomy.

[Jamie Somerville, Analyst at Eight Capital]

Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. And the next question comes from Brian Butler with Stifel.

[Brian Butler, Analyst at Stifel]

Hey, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in here. I'll try to be quick. I think most of my questions have been already answered. Just a quick one maybe on service intervals. Can you maybe just give some additional color on just kind of the service interval trend you saw in the third quarter and maybe year to date, and how that might play out as we get into the fourth and the 2025?

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

... Yeah, you know, Brian, I would tell you that on a small container basis in our competitive markets, that continues to improve, particularly when you take out service decreases that are really affiliated with price change. So you got to look at, you know, what is happening in service decreases that are solely related to economic, versus are you decreasing the level of service or frequency, because someone's trying to reduce somewhat of the impact of their price increase? So those are two ways of looking at it, and they're very different. And I think on the economic piece, and the price piece, actually, both those continue to improve, from where they were. So, we would tell you that that is, less of a headwind than each of the previous four to five quarters.

[Brian Butler, Analyst at Stifel]

Okay, great. Thanks. That's all I had.

[Operator]

Thank you. And the next question comes from Toby Sommer of Truist Securities.

[Jasper Bibb, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Hey, good morning. This is Jasper Bibb for Toby. Just wanted to follow up on the prior question. How are you thinking about the core margin drivers in 2025 underlying your EBITDA growth expectation? I think the last year has seen pretty good price-cost spread. You also mentioned the ongoing decline in employee turnover. You see kind of those key margin drivers changing at all as we turn the calendar into 2025?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

No, we really don't. You know, basically, when we give those preliminary thoughts, you know, when we say we, you know, we should be positioned for above average underlying solid waste margin expansion, it's for just those reasons you described, that we'll be looking forward to having price-led organic growth, and we should continue to see some of those benefits from improving retention and safety metrics, you know, over the longer term. And so we believe that would impact 2025. And that's the kind of color we'll be able to provide more of in February when we give our guidance.

[Jasper Bibb, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Thanks. Understood. And then maybe following up on railways, historically, I think Northeast has been your lowest margin geography. You know, do you see an opportunity to kind of more materially change that margin profile for the Northeast region over the next couple of years with New York ramping up and also your rail development?

[Mary Anne Whitney, CFO at Waste Connections]

Well, certainly, as Ron described, we think there's a lot of opportunity within the New York market, specifically in the benefits of the franchise model, providing greater efficiencies and densities locally. You know, one observation about the Northeast in general would be the disposal costs, the transfer and disposal costs, which influences total margins in any market. But that at a higher level is why you see slightly different dynamics in the Northeast than you do, say, in our central region or other regions, where those dynamics are different.

[Jasper Bibb, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Got it. Thanks for taking the questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. And that does conclude the Q&A session, so I'd like to turn the floor to Ron Mittelstaedt's staff for any closing comments.

[Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO at Waste Connections]

Okay, thank you. Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover, that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Regulation G, and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again. We look forward to connecting with you at upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.

[Operator]

Thank you. The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and we now disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Mary Anne Whitney, CFO
• Ronald Mittelstaedt, President and CEO

Analysts

• Stephanie Yee, Analyst at J.P. Morgan
• James Schumm, Analyst at TD Cowen
• Adam Bubes, Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Jasper Bibb, Analyst at Truist Securities
• Tyler Brown, Analyst at Raymond James
• Chris Murray, Analyst at ATB Capital Markets
• Konark Gupta, Analyst at Scotiabank
• Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer
• Brian Butler, Analyst at Stifel
• Sabahat Khan, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Kevin Chiang, Analyst at CIBC
• Jamie Somerville, Analyst at Eight Capital