International Distributions Services H1 24/25 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Adjusted operating profit of £61m in H1 versus a £169m loss a year ago, marking a clear turnaround in profitability.
  • Raw mail transformation continues apace, with network modernization and efficiency gains cutting the adjusted operating loss to £52m ex-VR and keeping the division on track for full-year profit ex-VR.
  • GLS revenue rose by 6.3% in euros, but margin fell 110bps to 5.3% amid wage, regulatory and FX headwinds, prompting new pricing and cost measures.
  • The UK Employers National Insurance increase will cost c.£120m next year, reducing profitability and triggering a £134m impairment of raw mail’s carrying value.
  • Management highlighted the urgent need for universal service reform as worsening market and fiscal headwinds threaten ongoing investment and transformation.
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Earnings Conference Call
International Distributions Services H1 24/25
00:00 / 00:00

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John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to International Distribution Services' half-year results presentation. I'm John Crosse, Director of Investor Relations. Before we start, I wanted to draw your attention to the usual disclaimer in our release this morning on forward-looking statements. This sets out examples of the factors that can cause actual results to differ from any forward-looking statements that we make. An update to the principal risks and uncertainties which could affect the Group was set out in today's release, and they're also included in the Group's annual report, which was published in June this year. All of these risks and uncertainties have the potential to impact the Group's business results of operations, financial condition, and prospects adversely. As you'll know, we're also in an offer period, which means we're subject to the rules of the UK Takeover Code

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

This means that today's presentation will focus on our performance in the first half of 2024-2025, and we will be making no additional forward-looking statements. Now, turning to today's agenda, Martin will kick off with some initial comments, Michael will then take you through the financials, and then we'll go back to Martin to cover the business updates for both Royal Mail and GLS. We'll also have some time for questions at the end. I'll now hand over to Martin.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be here presenting our results for the first half of the 2024-2025 financial year. I'm pleased to say that the Group delivered a good performance despite a weak macroeconomic backdrop and regulatory pressures. We delivered an adjusted operating profit of GBP 61 million compared to a loss of GBP 169 million last year. At Royal Mail, we are delivering on what we promised. The business has maintained its momentum, and the transformation is delivering an improved financial and operational performance with strong revenue growth and significantly reduced operating losses. The modernization of our network continues at pace, improving efficiency and quality, and we're expanding our out-of-home footprint. We are on track to return to adjusted operating profit before year-end costs for the full year.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

GLS made further strategic progress, expanding its out-of-home offering, upgrading its network to drive productivity and growth, and launching new innovative digital solutions. We have enhanced our global service offering with new transatlantic routes and increased our distribution capabilities in Asia-Pacific. However, GLS margin was lower year-on-year against a challenging economic and regulatory backdrop. In response, we've implemented cost reduction, pricing, and efficiency measures. GLS's flexible business model, diverse geographic footprint, and focus on quality will serve us well, and we will continue to invest to support growth. The outlook in the U.K. and Europe remains challenging, with significant fiscal headwinds next year in the U.K. We are delivering on the changes we can control, but the cost environment is worsening just at a time when we need to invest. This makes Universal Service reform even more urgent.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Before I update on both businesses in more detail, I will hand over to Michael to run you through the Group financials for the first half.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

Thank you, Martin, and good morning, everybody. The Group delivered a good top-line performance, increasing revenue by 8.2% to £6.3 billion. Growth was seen in both Royal Mail and in GLS against the backdrop of a difficult trading environment. In parcels, we saw volume growth of 7%, taking the total number of parcels handled in the period to 1.1 billion. This parcel volume generated £4.4 billion of revenue, a 6.4% increase year-on-year. Profit on an adjusted basis was £61 million, compared to a loss of £169 million in the prior year. This reflects top-line growth and the significant reduction in losses at Royal Mail. Excluding voluntary redundancy, or VR costs, the adjusted loss in Royal Mail was £52 million, a significant improvement on last year's adjusted loss of £319 million. As Martin said, the business is on track to return adjusted operating profit before VR costs for the full year.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

Free cash flow was an outflow of £47 million, compared to an outflow of £72 million last year, largely driven by the improved trading performance. Compared to March, net debt increased by £178 million to £1.9 billion, reflecting our investment in transformation and growth. Despite that increase, the Group maintains a strong conservative balance sheet, and we continue to focus on cash management and liquidity. The recently announced changes to Employers' National Insurance mean our costs at Royal Mail will rise by around £120 million next year, a significant and disproportionate impact compared to our competitors, given the nature of our 130,000 strong permanent workforce. We expect to eventually mitigate the impact of this through pricing and cost measures, but in the short term, this will impact on profitability, and as a result, we've had to reduce the carrying value of Royal Mail by £134 million.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

Moving on to Royal Mail in more detail, total revenue was up 10.7%, with growth in both letters and parcels, driven by pricing and higher parcel volumes. The general election in July added 5.5 percentage points to letter revenue growth, with underlying revenue growth of 7.2%. Parcels saw good volume growth of 9% in a weaker market than anticipated, with price increases offset by negative mix. On costs, we made further progress on the modernization agenda and CWU deal, which Martin will cover in more detail. Tight control on expenses and investment means that against the 2% pay deal and higher workload, including the additional resourcing we needed to deliver the general election, people costs only grew by 2.2%, or 1.7% excluding VR. Together, this means that the adjusted operating loss reduced by GBP 252 million to GBP 67 million, a significant reduction.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

The financial tables on this slide are provided to give more detail on the Royal Mail performance. As you can see, this shows the reduction in adjusted loss in line with expectations, but also the improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Trading working capital movements were driven by a number of factors, including higher international settlements in the current period, seasonality of payroll costs, and actions taken in the prior year that did not repeat. Turning now to GLS. As mentioned, against the difficult economic backdrop, GLS delivered a resilient 4.4% increase in revenue in sterling terms, or 6.3% in Euros, with revenue growth in most markets. This was driven by increased parcel volumes, which were up 4%, and also pricing measures. You can see the slowdown in growth year-on-year on the charts, which is reflective of market conditions.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

On costs, we saw several external headwinds, including wage inflation on staff costs and subcontractor rates. Competitive and regulatory pressures, particularly in Germany and Italy, contributed to a 14.7% reduction in operating profit for the half to GBP 128 million, or EUR 150 million in euros. Foreign exchange movements also had a negative impact, resulting in a net decrease of GBP 2 million in operating profit. Adjusted operating profit margin declined by 110 basis points to 5.3%. To counter this, GLS has taken action, implementing yield management and cost reduction measures alongside price increases. This slide presents the GLS results in more detail, both in sterling and euros. You will see the growth in revenue alongside the cost pressures and margin compression. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet position. At the period end, we retained liquidity at the Group level of GBP 1.6 billion, including GBP 925 million relating to the undrawn RCF.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

We also maintained our investment-grade credit rating. I'm pleased to say that in October, Royal Mail launched the UK's first collective defined contribution pension plan, demonstrating further investment in our people and innovation. In summary, a good operational performance in half one and the Group back to adjusted profit. Royal Mail is on track to return to adjusted operating profit before voluntary redundancy costs for the full year. GLS is seeing margin pressure, but we are taking action, and the model continues to prove resilient. The market environment remains challenging, with fiscal headwinds next year in the UK, as I've outlined, but we continue to focus on what we can control. With that, I'll now pass it back to Martin to take you through the strategic and operational updates.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Thank you, Michael. I will now take you through the business updates for both Royal Mail and GLS. Starting with Royal Mail, I'm pleased to say the transformation of the business continues at pace. In the first half of the year, we pushed back start times of our frontline teams, which was the biggest operational change in the business for over 20 years, improving reliability, increasing network capacity, and reducing emissions. 14 out of the 18 domestic flights have already been stopped. New seasonal working patterns are now in place, a key enabler to deliver efficiencies. We have increased the number of permanent employees on new contracts to over 19,000, reducing our reliance on agency workers and, in turn, improving quality and flexibility. Our new attendance standards, sick pay, and well-being programs have contributed to a 1.4% reduction in sick absence rates.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Quality of service has continued to improve over the past 12 months for both commercial track and Universal Service products. This is a good improvement, although there is clearly more to do. Parcel automation capacity is expected to hit 90% by the end of this financial year, and our 850,000 yellow containers now have digital tags, improving network visibility and allowing better planning. We have continued to make good progress on our channel strategy. Royal Mail's out-of-home network is planned to increase to over 21,000 locations by the end of this financial year. In the second half, we will further accelerate our investment in out-of-home with the launch of our own locker network. Last of all, Christmas is coming, and we are well prepared for peak, with later deliveries up to 8:00 P.M., 16,000 extra people joining the team for the festive period, and 4,000 new vehicles. However, challenges remain.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

We continue to see cost of living pressures and weak consumer confidence. The recent budget also introduced significant fiscal headwinds going into next year, as Michael explained. Against this backdrop, our transformation will take time and money. Progress will not be linear. This is why reform of the Universal Service is so desperately needed. Whilst Ofcom has now set out a timeline, we have no certainty on the outcome, and we are continuing to make the case for urgent action. So whilst we made good progress in half one, considerable change and investment is still required. And now over to GLS. Despite a challenging trading environment, GLS delivered a robust financial performance in the first half. We are continuing to invest to transform the last mile and expand our out-of-home network. It has now grown to over 61,000 access points.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Lockers grew to around 10,000, driven by both partnerships and our own locker network. We are continuing to upgrade our network with the Berlin and Paris hubs now open. There's also a new depot in Copenhagen under construction, which is due to open next year. This will increase inbound handling capacity and deliver significant operational efficiencies. We are also expanding towards a more global offering. We've enhanced our global distribution capabilities into the Asia-Pacific region with our new Chinese network partner, SF Express. In Europe, as announced in October, GLS acquired 20% of ACS in Greece, the country's largest domestic parcel carrier. In the U.S., we divested our freight operation and are now focusing on the core parcel business. We're leveraging cross-border traffic to and from Europe by opening up new transatlantic shipping lanes. This is an important area for future growth.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

However, across Europe, the macroeconomic environment is difficult with regulatory and competitive pressures. This is particularly true in Germany and Italy, two of GLS's largest markets. In response, we've implemented cost reduction, pricing, and efficiency measures in a number of countries. GLS's flexible business model, broad customer base, and geographic diversity will enable it to navigate through these more challenging times. We will also maintain investment to support GLS organic and inorganic growth opportunities. To summarize, IDS delivered a good performance in the first half despite a challenging market environment. At Royal Mail, we significantly reduced losses and made further progress on our transformation and modernization agenda. We are on track to deliver our target of an adjusted operating profit for the full year, excluding VR costs.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

However, whilst we are delivering on the changes that are within our control, market and fiscal headwinds remain, making Universal Service reform even more urgent. At GLS, we implemented cost reduction, pricing, and efficiency measures in a number of countries to counter a weaker macro environment. We will continue to invest to support GLS's strategic ambitions. Finally, a word on the recommended offer. We continue to expect the offer to be declared unconditional in the first quarter of 2025, subject, of course, to the required conditions being satisfied or waived. Thank you for listening. Michael and I are now happy to take your questions, and I will pass back to John to start the Q&A session.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Great. Thanks for that, Martin. Just a reminder, as Simon said at the beginning, if you're on the phone and you have a question, please do push star one on the phone. Those of you listening via the webcast, there's a facility on the webcast to type in your question, and then it will come through to us in the room, and I can read it out and get your question answered that way. I'll just pause a second for people to register questions on the phone. So questions have come here on the webcast. Just, Mike, I think it's one for you. Just talking through the impact of NI, what's driving that, and what sort of mitigating actions can we take to try and offset that?

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

So we've already said the changes announced in National Insurance will impact us by circa GBP 120 million from the 1st of April. We expect in time to be able to mitigate that through a variety of measures around pricing and cost, but in the short term, that will impact on profitability, and therefore that's fed into the impairment calculation and resulted in the reduction in carrying value of Royal Mail by GBP 134 million.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Great. Thank you. On the calls, if we go to the lines now, I see Achal has registered on the phone. Hi, Achal, do you want to go ahead and ask your question?

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Yeah, hi, John. Good morning, everyone. So I have three, if I may. First of all, historically, I think you mentioned that retailers and the customers have been shifting from Track 24 to Track 48, which had some negative impact on the overall average parcel pricing. Given that there is some improvement in the economic activities, it looks like. So do you see that changing now? Do you think the customers are returning back to Track 24? So that is my first question. Secondly, I wanted to understand a bit more about the parcel volumes in Europe and the UK. We are already in November, and I'm not sure if you can give a bit of a color in terms of how the volumes look like.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

But more importantly, in GLS, you have reported a 4% increase in the parcel volumes, despite the fact that you had some positive impact because of additional hubs in Madrid and other places. So on the underlying basis, like for like, how do you see the parcel volumes are behaving in Europe and, of course, a bit of a color on the UK and Europe? And my final question in terms of the CWU agreement, which you had, and then you have done some changes in terms of timing you highlighted, but what other changes have been incorporated, or how should we expect the changes in the next financial year, especially with the fact that you're seeing sort of a lot of cost pressure?

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Do you see that kind of cost pressure can be offset with these kinds of changes which you're planning under CWU agreement? Thank you.

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

Okay, thanks, Achal. So just to summarize, I think we got three questions there. One is trading down some of the trends we've seen previously, people trading from Track 24 to Track 48, kind of how's the market generally for that? Just a bit of color on parcel volumes and what the trends we're seeing. And then that final question around, I think, Achal, we can't give any guidance for next year in terms of what we're anticipating, but we can probably give a few comments on how the implementation of that agreement is going with CWU. So Martin has probably three for those.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Yeah. All right. Thank you very much. So first of all, on your question, shifting 24 to 48, that always depends on a couple of factors. One is, which is what's the pricing that's being put in place, what's the quality that's being presented, and what is the overall economic, let's say, state of the situation. And from our perspective, I would say the trend has either rather stabilized or slightly swung back to a more 24-hour product. But from our perspective, that is also due to our continued delivery of very stable and good quality of service on those products. So whether that now is a trend in the market or not, you cannot really deduce that conclusion from what's happening within Royal Mail. But we're quite pleased with the development of the mix that we're seeing in our product base.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

In terms of parcel volumes, overall, what we observe in the U.K., start with the U.K., and then I come to Europe. In the U.K., we are seeing a bit of a mixed picture here, but overall, I think people are a bit more careful in terms of spending. We are seeing more parcels coming in from China with lower value goods than you would normally have. So that's probably a bit of a trend, but overall, I think we are facing a bit of a reluctance of consumer to spend all their money and a bit of a soft trading, softer volumes, I would say, in the market. In terms of Europe, it's a bit of a mixed bag. Some countries are quite soft, as you know, probably, for example, in Germany, it's on the brink of a recession. That obviously has an impact on the consumer spending.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

People are quite careful there. Whereas in other countries in Europe, some of the southern countries, the volumes are really good and really taking off. So it's really a mixed bag across the patch. And there's no clear trend in Europe. I would probably say with a nudge to people being more careful, but some countries are the outliers here. In terms of your question on what are we going to expect in terms of going forward as measures, well, we'll just plow on with our transformation. There's still lots to do to transform Royal Mail from a mail company to a parcel and mail company. And that means we will be continuing to invest into automation because that's what you have to do if you want to run an efficient network. So we'll continue with that.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

We, of course, will also be hoping that there will be some USO change coming our way at some point in time because the reform is long, long overdue. Once the USO change comes, that requires us to quite significantly change the work patterns, the way we work. We're prepared for that. That's also on the agenda, of course, going forward. Of course, to sum it up, we are continuing to transform. That means investment into our network. I've spoken earlier on also that we are launching and growing our own network. We launched our own parcel lockers next year, which is quite, I think, an important thing for us to be accessible to our customers via various channels. Yeah, probably that's what I would like to comment on your third question.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Great. Thanks, Martin.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Thank you so much. Thanks, Achal. Just go to the webcast. There's a couple of questions that come in there. I can probably handle this first one. It's asking for an update on the FDI review in the U.K. and timelines for the approvals required for the offer. So no, unfortunately, we can't give a running commentary on the approvals process. And as we said in the release, we're still continuing to expect that the offers are effectively going to go unconditional, subject, obviously, to the required conditions and approvals in calendar Q1 of next year. So unfortunately, we can't give any further update other than that. Another question that's come in online, probably one for you, Martin. It's come from Alex at Bernstein about the transformation of Royal Mail into a more parcel-centric business and the structure of the workforce.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

And Alex is asking how many daily walks we're doing, how's that changed pre-pandemic and year on year. And I think that's probably one that goes to reform of the USO, actually. So yeah, Alex's question about the changing to a more parcel-centric business and how that impacts on the workforce.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Yeah. So thanks for that question. We do have today 54,000 walks. And with the proposal that we've put forward to the regulator for the USO reform, those will decrease by, depending on how exactly the shape is going to look like and what number of parcels letters will have in a network at the point of change, it will reduce by 7,000-9,000. And that's driven by, of course, the decline in letters. We're coming. Remind everyone, we're coming from 20 billion letters to now 6.7 billion letters, with a further decreasing by the day, while we're seeing an increase in the number of addresses that we need to serve by 15%.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

And by the change in the current call rate that we have by delivering to the addresses in the U.K., and the current call rate is only four in 10 addresses where we'll deliver mail currently, where we are delivering mail towards. So those are the changes that we will foresee in terms of the shape of the last mile.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Okay. Thanks very much for that, Martin. And thanks, Alex, for the question. Another one that's come in online is probably one for you, Michael, actually. The question is, do these results suggest that bids are now less valuable than before?

Michael Snape
CFO at International Distribution Services

It's important to say these results are entirely in line with our expectations and the plan that was approved at the start of the year. That's the same plan that the board used to consider these bids against. The only things that have changed since that time are the announcement on National Insurance, which has put another £120 million of costs into the business, and as we talked about in the release, a worsened market environment for GLS, which is having an impact on their top line.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Okay. Great. Thank you. And then I think probably we'll take this now as the final question. I think, Achal, have you come back into the queue for a final question, or if you have one more?

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Yeah, yeah. I have one more, John, if you allow.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Okay. You can be the last question then.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Okay. Perfect. Thank you, John. Thank you for this opportunity again. So in fact, I would like to ask two questions if you can answer. One is on the general behavior or general motivation among the employees, right? It has been going for so long in terms of you've done the agreement with the CWU, and now you're of course making the changes, but then in between, this bid offer is going on. So among all these, how do you see the behavior of the employees? I mean, do you see the same kind of willingness among the employees to support your plan changes, or do you see there is a reluctance given that they are, I mean, given that they could expect that there's some changes in the ownership? So how that is going on? So that is one question.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

And secondly, in terms of Ofcom, obviously, you mentioned that USO definitely it is quite urgent to modernize the USO. Now, what's going on? I mean, Ofcom has been taking so long. So I mean, what are the challenges there? What are your expectations? And do you see any government's interference in that? So if you could give a bit of a color on that, please.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Right. Thank you. I will start with the behavior and the motivation of the employees within the current situation. I think we're in a really good spot with our people. And it does something to the people that we can post results like we did today because they can see that the hard work that they're putting into Royal Mail day in and day out to delight the customer is starting to pay off. We're definitely communicating the results, of course, internally, and people do appreciate that we are moving in the right direction. It does something to the motivation of the people. We have a stable leadership team with Emma Gilthorpe being the CEO of Royal Mail and being also quite often out and about in the field and talking to the people. That does something to the people that we are about feeling appreciated and so on.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

People will also realize that we need further investment in Royal Mail. And I think the mood music here is that we would have a potential new owner who is in for the long term and willing to invest also in our business because we haven't invested that much in previous years, and we need to invest furthermore to improve our position in the market. And last but not least, we also do a lot to engage with our employees. And some of you might have read about the Kits for Kids initiative, where we support grassroots sports clubs of our people, which does something to the people. It's about pride into the company and visibility of Royal Mail in the day-to-day. And that's what we are investing in and what people seem to appreciate.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

With regards to Ofcom, well, to be frank, we would love to have seen the change already taking place. It is quite urgent. We are having a quality of service regime that is 18 years unchanged, whilst the market has changed dramatically in the meantime. We all know that. And I've spoken earlier on about the decline of letter volumes. So I can just reiterate that the U.K. is getting left behind with regards to its international peers. Next to U.K., only Malta is the country that still has a similar Universal service regime that we have in the U.K. So when the change will come, I don't know. It has to come ASAP. And the role of the government, of course, is that we are urging the government to support it and to also urge themselves, the regulator, to provide the reform that is really, really needed for us.

Martin Seidenberg
CEO at International Distribution Services

Also, like what Michael said before, in terms of we have now the NI increased costs coming our way. So, we need to get the Universal Service changed as soon as possible.

John Crosse
Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services

Great. Thanks, Martin. Thanks, Achal. We haven't got any more questions ready in the queue. So with that, I'll say thank you to everybody for joining this morning. Obviously, myself and the rest of the IR team are here for any further questions people have. But other than that, I say thanks for joining. Have a good day.

Analysts
    • Martin Seidenberg
      CEO at International Distribution Services
    • Michael Snape
      CFO at International Distribution Services
    • Analyst
    • John Crosse
      Head of Investor Relations at International Distribution Services