Cummins Q4 2023 Earnings Report

Cummins EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $4.14
• Consensus EPS: $4.41
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.27
• One Year Ago EPS: $4.52

Cummins Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $8.54 billion
• Expected Revenue: $8.10 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$442.87 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +9.90%

Cummins Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2023
• Date: 2/6/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, February 6, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) (NYSE: CMI) is a global power technology company headquartered in Columbus, Indiana. Founded in 1919, the company designs, manufactures, sells and services power solutions for commercial, industrial and infrastructure applications.

Its products include diesel and natural-gas engines, electrified powertrains, batteries, fuel cell systems, generators and other power-generation equipment. Cummins also produces components such as filtration systems, fuel systems, turbochargers and emission-control technologies. Through its Accelera business, the company develops zero- and low-carbon technologies, including battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell solutions.

Cummins serves customers in transportation, construction, mining, agriculture, marine, data centers, healthcare, telecommunications and other markets. Its products and services are supported by a global network of distributors and service locations, allowing the company to serve customers across North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa and other international markets.

Cummins Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Q4 revenue rose 10% to $8.5 billion but showed an EBITDA loss of $878 million, largely due to a $2.04 billion regulatory settlement charge.
• Full year 2023 delivered record revenues of $34.1 billion (+21%) and record operating cash flow of $4 billion.
• Expanded Destination 0 strategy with over $1 billion invested in US engine network to launch the X10 fuel-agnostic series by 2026 and the X15 natural gas engine in North America this year.
• Accelera advanced with a joint venture to build a 21 gigawatt-hour battery factory in Mississippi by 2027, over $500 million in electrolyzer backlog, and new US manufacturing for electrolyzers in Minnesota.
• 2024 guidance forecasts revenues down 2–5% and EBITDA margins of 14.4–15.4%, reflecting expected softening in North American heavy-duty truck markets.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings! Welcome, welcome to Cummins Inc.'s fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Chris Clulow, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our teleconference today to discuss Cummins' results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. Participating with me today are Jennifer Rumsey, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer, and Mark Smith, our Chief Financial Officer. We will all be available to answer questions at the end of the teleconference. Before we start, please note that some of the information that you will hear or be given today will consist of forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. Such statements express our forecasts, expectations, hopes, beliefs, and intentions on strategies regarding the future. Our actual future results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

More information regarding such risks and uncertainties is available in the forward-looking disclosure statement in the slide deck in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and any subsequently filed quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. During the course of this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, and we will refer you to our website for the reconciliation of those measures to GAAP financial measures. Our press release, with a copy of the financial statements and a copy of today's webcast presentation, are available on our website within the Investor Relations section at cummins.com. With that out of the way, I'll turn you over to our Chair and CEO, Jennifer Rumsey, to kick us off.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with a summary of 2023 and discuss our fourth quarter and full year results, and then I'll finish with a discussion of our outlook for 2024. Mark will then take you through more details of our fourth quarter and full year financial performance and our forecast for this year. As I reflect back on 2023, I am incredibly proud of what Cummins and our employees accomplished for our stakeholders, and I feel energized about the opportunities ahead for us as we continue to demonstrate our relentless focus on being a global leader in clean energy, technology, and innovation.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

We made significant progress in achieving our Destination Zero strategy, and it continues to be clear that this dual path approach to reducing greenhouse gas and air quality impacts of our products is the right approach to meet our customers' needs today and continue to grow our business and impact. We did this by advancing our core business as well as developing new zero-emission solutions through Accelera by Cummins. Most notably, for our core business in 2023, we committed to investing more than $1 billion across our U.S. engine manufacturing network to support the industry's first fuel-agnostic engine platforms, as well as unveiled the X10 fuel-agnostic series, launching in North America in 2026. Additionally, we initiated several collaborations with our natural gas X15 engine, which will launch in North America this year and further enables our customers to achieve their decarbonization goals.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

This is the industry's first natural gas engine designed specifically for heavy-duty and on-highway truck applications, offering customers the opportunity to realize reductions in nitrous oxides and greenhouse gas without compromising performance. We are continuing to see strong interest from both OEMs and end users ahead of the launch later this year. In our Accelera business, we announced a joint venture with Daimler Truck, PACCAR, and EVE Energy to accelerate and localize battery cell production and the battery supply chain in the U.S. We further announced this quarter the selection of Marshall County, Mississippi, for the 21 GWh factory that is expected to create more than 2,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs, with production anticipated to begin in 2027. Accelera also reached a further milestone this year of electrolyzer order backlog, totaling over $500 million.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

In order to meet the growing electrolyzer demand, we began production at our first U.S. manufacturing location for electrolyzers in the Cummins Power Generation facility in Fridley, Minnesota. Lastly, we are resolute about the leading role we play in the energy transition, and emissions compliance continues to be a critical element of this work and central to our values. We were transparent about this in December, when we announced that we reached an agreement in principle to resolve U.S. regulatory claims regarding our emissions certification and compliance process for certain engines, primarily used in our pickup truck applications. After four and a half years of working diligently with the regulators, reaching an agreement was the best way for us to achieve certainty on this matter and move forward with certifying our new products and advancing our Destination Zero strategy.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

We have expanded and strengthened our emissions compliance program to help ensure our products comply with increasingly stringent emissions regulations around the world. Our Product Compliance and Regulatory Affairs organization, which we launched in 2019, has a reporting line directly to me and positions Cummins to meet global product compliance requirements and deliver solutions for our customers that are safe and lead to a cleaner environment. Now, I will comment on overall company performance for the fourth quarter of 2023 and cover some of our key markets. Demand for our products remains strong across many of our key markets and regions. Revenues for this quarter totaled $8.5 billion, an increase of 10% compared to 2022, driven by strong demand across most global markets....

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

EBITDA was a loss of $878 million, or -10.3%, compared to positive $1.1 billion, or 14.2%, a year ago. Fourth quarter 2023 results included $2.04 billion of costs related to the agreement to resolve U.S. regulatory claims, $42 million of costs related to a voluntary retirement and separation program, and $33 million of costs related to the separation of the Atmus business. This compares to the fourth quarter 2022 results, which included $19 million of costs related to the separation of the Atmus business. Excluding those items, EBITDA was $1.2 billion, or 14.4% of sales, compared to $1.1 billion or 14.5%.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

EBITDA dollars increased from a year ago as increased pricing and higher volumes more than offset increased selling, administrative, research and development expenses and inflation costs. Research and development expense increased in the fourth quarter as we continued to invest in the products and technologies that will create advantages in the future, particularly in the engine, components, and Accelera segments. In addition, operating cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2023 was very strong at $1.5 billion, compared to $817 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 as we continue to focus on working capital management within the business. 2023 revenues were a record $34.1 billion, 21% higher than 2022, driven by the addition of Meritor and strong demand across most global markets.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

EBITDA was $3 billion, or 8.9% of sales, compared to $3.8 billion or 13.5% of sales in 2022. 2023 results include $2.04 billion of costs related to the agreement to resolve U.S. regulatory claims. The voluntary headcount reduction program I noted previously, and $100 million of costs related to the separation of the filtration business. This compares to our 2022 results, which included $111 million of costs related to the indefinite suspension of operations in Russia and $81 million of costs related to the separation of the filtration business. Excluding those items, EBITDA was a record $5.2 billion, or 15.3% of sales for 2023, compared to $4 billion or 14.2% of sales for 2022.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

As the benefits of higher volume and pricing exceeded increased selling, administrative research and development and inflation costs. EBITDA% improved year-over-year in the distribution, components and power systems segments. Our power systems business, in particular, finished 2023 with a full year EBITDA of 14.7% of sales, up from 12.2% in 2022. This segment completed the first year of their focused business transformation effort, and the improvement in performance is encouraging. You will see from our guidance that we expect further margin gains this year. In addition to our segments, Meritor finished 2023 with full year EBITDA of 10.8% of sales, up from 7.4% in 2022, as our employees did a tremendous job of executing value capture opportunities across the business.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

I'm very pleased with the performance of Cummins-Meritor to date as we continue our program to improve margins in that business and expand its global reach. In addition, operating cash flow for 2023 was a record of $4 billion, a significant increase from $2 billion in 2022. I'm proud of our leaders and employees' efforts in 2023 as they helped deliver on one of our primary focus areas. Strong cash generation will continue to be a top priority moving forward. Now, let me provide our overall outlook for 2024 and then comment on individual regions and end markets. Our 2024 guidance continues to include Atmus for the full year, but excludes any costs or benefits associated with the planned separation of that business.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

We are forecasting total company revenue for 2024 to be down 2%-5% compared to 2023, and EBITDA to be in the range of 14.4%-15.4% of sales. As we anticipate slowing demand in some of our key regions and markets, particularly North America heavy-duty truck. Early in 2024, we expect the heavy-duty market to continue at its current rate, which is slightly off the peak of the first half of 2023, with further softening in our forecast in the second half of the year. Industry production for heavy-duty trucks in North America is projected to be 245,000-265,000 units in 2024, a 10%-15% decline year-over-year.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

In medium-duty truck market, we expect market size to be 140,000-150,000 units, down 5% to flat compared to 2023. Our engine shipments for pickup trucks in North America are expected to be 135,000-145,000 units in 2024, a 5%-10% decline year-over-year as we prepare to launch our model year 2025 in the fourth quarter. In China, we project total revenue, including joint ventures, to increase 3% in 2024. We're projecting a range of down 5% to up 10% in heavy-duty and medium-duty truck demand, and expect a range of down 5% to up 5% in demand in light-duty truck market.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

We expect replacement demand to be the biggest driver, but the effect may be weakened by a sluggish economy and moderating export demand. Despite this slow pace of recovery in the China truck market, we expect to see continued strong performance for the 15-liter natural gas engine, as we achieved approximately 20% share for, for 2023 in the heavy-duty market. In India, we project total revenue, including joint ventures, to increase 9% in 2024, primarily driven by strong power generation and on-highway demand. We expect industry demand for trucks to be flat to up 5% for the year. For global construction, we expect a 5%-15% decline year-over-year, primarily driven by weak property investment and shrinking export demand in China. We project our major global high horsepower markets to remain strong in 2024.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Revenues in the global power generation market are expected to increase 5%-10%, driven by continued increases in the data center and mission-critical markets. Sales of mining engines are expected to be down 5% to up 5%. While a small market for us, demand for oil and gas engines is expected to decrease by 40%-50% in 2024, primarily driven by decreased demand in North America. For aftermarket, we expect a range of flat to an increase of 5% for 2024, as we expect to be largely through inventory management efforts and destocking that happened throughout the industry in the second half of 2023. In Accelera, we expect full year sales to be $450 million-$500 million compared to the $354 million in 2023.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

We have a growing pipeline of electrolyzer orders, which we expect to deliver over the course of the next 12 to 18 months, as well as expect continued growth in electrified components. In summary, 2023 was a record year for revenues and operating cash flow. Excluding the impacts related to the agreement to resolve U.S. regulatory claims, 2023 was also a record year for EBITDA, net income and earnings per share. While 2023 revenues were at the high end of our expectations, we anticipate moderating demand in North America truck production in the second half of 2024. We expect this moderating demand to be partially offset by a strong power generation market, resiliency in our distribution business, given the strong aftermarket presence and improved Accelera sales.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

In addition, we are taking steps to reduce costs, optimize our business and position Cummins for continued success in 2024. We are in a strong position to keep investing in the future, bringing new technologies to customers and returning cash to our investors. As I close, I would like to officially announce that our Analyst Day is now scheduled for May 16th in New York City. I look forward to further discussing our strategy and expect invitations to be sent out shortly. Now, let me turn it over to Mark, who will discuss our financial results in more detail. Mark?

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Thank you, Jen, and good morning, everyone. I will acknowledge I have a heavy cold this morning, so if I sound more dour than usual and a little rougher, please take that into consideration. We delivered solid operational results in the fourth quarter, exceeding our expectations for revenue and delivering EBITDA margins in line with our guidance. Compared to 2022, our full year sales grew 21%, and our operating cash flow more than doubled to a record $4 billion, reflecting the strong focus of our employees on meeting customer demand and improving working capital. Now, let me go into more details on the fourth quarter and full year performance. Q4 revenues were $8.5 billion, and EBITDA was a net loss of $878 million or negative 10.3% of sales.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

For the full year, we reported revenues of a record $34.1 billion, and EBITDA was $3 billion or 8.9% of sales. As Jen mentioned, we recorded a one-time charge of $2.04 billion in Q4 to settle the previously disclosed U.S. regulatory claims. Fourth quarter results also included $42 million of costs associated with the voluntary retirement and separation programs. Costs associated with the planned separation of Atmus were $33 million in the fourth quarter and $100 million for the full year. Compares to $19 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, and a total of $81 million in the previous year. Full year 2022 results also included $111 million of costs related to the indefinite suspension of our operations in Russia.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

To provide clarity on the fourth quarter and 2023 full year operational performance of our business, I am now excluding the costs associated with the regulatory settlement, voluntary retirement separation programs, planned separation of Atmus, and the indefinite suspension of our operations in Russia in my following comments. Q4 revenues were $8.5 billion, an increase of 10% from a year ago. Sales in North America increased 8%, driven by improved pricing across multiple end markets and stronger demand for power generation products. International revenues increased 13%, driven by strong global power gen demand, particularly for data centers. EBITDA was $1.2 billion or 14.4% of sales for the quarter, compared to $1.1 billion or 14.5% of sales a year ago.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Improved pricing was offset by higher compensation costs, increased investment in development and capabilities in our Accelera segment. Higher variable compensation costs were driven primarily by stronger operating cash flow, which exceeded our expectations for the quarter and the full year. Now I'll go into each line item with a little bit more detail. Gross margin was $2 billion or 23.7% of sales, an increase of $201 million or 30 basis points from the prior year. The improved margins were driven by favorable pricing and higher volumes, partially offset by higher product coverage costs and compensation expenses. Selling, admin, and research expenses increased by $154 million or 15% as we continue to invest in the development of new products that will drive future growth, and also due to higher variable compensation costs.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Joint venture income increased $25 million due to slowly recovering demand in China from a low base in 2022. Other income was $50 million, an increase of $17 million from a year ago, primarily due to the recovery of technology fees from customers in the fourth quarter. Interest expense was $92 million, an increase of $5 million from the prior year, driven by higher interest rates on the floating rate portion of our debt. The all-in effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was negative 13.3%, principally due to nondeductible costs associated with the regulatory settlement.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

All-in net loss for the quarter was $1.4 billion, or -$10.01 per diluted share, which includes $2.04 billion, or $13.76 per diluted share of costs associated with the regulatory settlement. $42 million or $0.22 per diluted share of costs associated with the voluntary retirement and separation programs, and $33 million or $0.17 per diluted share of costs associated with the planned separation of Atmus. Operating cash flow was an inflow of $1.5 billion, $642 million higher than the fourth quarter last year, driven by strong earnings and a lower expansion of our working capital across the business.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

For the full year 2023, revenues were a record $34.1 billion, up 21% or $6 billion from a year ago, driven by the inclusion of a full year of Meritor results and strong organic growth. Sales in North America increased 22%, and international sales increased 20%. Within those numbers, organic sales growth was 12%, driven by improved pricing, strong global demand for power generation products, continued strength in the North American truck market, and slowly improving economic conditions in China. EBITDA for the year was $5.2 billion or 15.3% of sales for 2023, an increase of $1.2 billion or 110 basis points from the prior year.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

The increase in EBITDA % was driven by higher volumes, favorable pricing, and logistics costs, and a modest and favorable mark-to-market impact from our investments that underpin our company-owned life insurance plans, all of that partially offset by higher compensation expenses. All-in net earnings were $735 million or $5.15 per diluted share, compared to $2.2 billion or $15.12 per diluted share a year ago. 2023 net earnings include $2.04 billion or $13.78 per diluted share of costs related to the regulatory settlement, $100 million or $0.54 per diluted share of costs related to the separation of Atmus, $42 million or $0.22 per diluted share of costs related to the voluntary separation programs that we implemented during the fourth quarter.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Full year cash from operations was a record inflow of $4 billion, doubling from a year ago as a result of higher operating income and much lower expansion of working capital across the company. Capital expenditures in 2023 were $1.2 billion, in line with our forecast and an increase of $297 million from 2022, as we continued to invest in the new products and capabilities to drive growth, particularly related to the fuel-agnostic platforms within our core business. Our long-term goal is to deliver at least 50% of operating cash flow to shareholders, and over the past five years, we've returned 56% of operating cash flow in the form of share repurchases and dividends. The all-in... Hang on. I've jumped one page too many. Sorry about that. I've gone the wrong way. That can happen sometimes.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

In 2023, we focused our capital allocation on organic investments and dividend growth, returning $921 million to shareholders via the dividend and debt reduction following the acquisition of Meritor. We currently expect that our priorities for cash deployment in 2024 will mirror those of last year. I'll now summarize the 2023 results for the operating segments and provide guidance for 2024. If I need to say it again, I will, that the results that I'm gonna discuss going forwards exclude the costs related to the separation of Atmus, the costs associated with the voluntary retirement and separation, and the costs associated with the indefinite suspension of our operations in Russia in 2022. Component segment record revenues were a record $13.4 billion, 38% higher than the prior year.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

EBITDA was 14.4% of sales, compared to 14.2%, an increase of $540 million or 40%. For 2024, we expect total revenue for the components business to decrease 2%-7% and EBITDA margins to be in the range of 13.9%-14.9%. For the engine segment, 2023 revenues increased 7% to a record $11.7 billion, and EBITDA was 14.1% of sales, compared to 14.3% a year ago. In dollar terms, EBITDA increased $74 million or 5%. In 2024, we project revenues for the engine business will decrease 2%-7% due to expected moderation in the North American truck, heavy duty truck market, most likely in the second half or most prominently in the second half of the year.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

2024 EBITDA is projected to be in the range of 12.5%-13.5%. In the distribution segment, revenues increased 15% from a year ago to a record $10.2 billion. And EBITDA increased by 28% and improved as a percent of sales to 11.8%, compared to 10.6% a year ago. We expect distribution revenues to be between -3% and +2%, and EBITDA margins to be in the range of 11.4%-12.4% for the full year. In the power systems segment, revenues were also a record of $5.7 billion or 13% higher than last year.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

EBITDA was 14.7% or 250 basis points higher than 2022, driven by favorable pricing, strong volume, and certain cost reduction actions. In 2024, we expect power systems revenues to be down 3% to up 2% and EBITDA in the range of 15.2%-16.2%. Accelera revenues increased to $354 million in 2023, with a net loss at the EBITDA level of $443 million. In 2024, we expect, Accelera, lots of A's in there.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

We anticipate that Accelera revenues will increase in the range of $450 million-$500 million, and net losses to reduce to between $400 million and $430 million as we continue to make targeted investments in future technologies, while improving the operating performance of our current products. We currently project 2024 company revenues to be down 2%-5% and company EBITDA margins in the range of 14.4%-15.4%. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% in 2024, excluding any discrete items. Capital investments will likely be in the range of $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion as we continue to make critical investments to support future growth. To summarize, we delivered record sales and strong operating profits in 2023.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Cash generation has been, and will continue to be, a strong focus as we enter 2024, enabling us to continue investing in new products, even during times of economic uncertainty, returning cash to shareholders, and maintaining a strong balance sheet. As Jen indicated, we do expect moderation in several of our key markets in 2024, especially in the U.S. truck market, as reflected in our guidance. We've already taken actions to reduce costs in the business and are in a good situation to navigate the economic cycle, improve our cycle over cycle performance in 2024. Subject to our market conditions, our intention is to split off the remaining ownership in Atmus through an exchange offer as our next step in the separation, as we seek to reposition our portfolio for the future.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

As part of the proposed exchange offer, Cummins shareholders will have the choice to exchange all, some, or none of their shares of Cummins stock for shares of Atmus common stock, subject to the terms of the offer. The exact timing of our decision to launch an exchange offer will, as stated earlier, depend on market conditions, but the launch of the tender could occur as early as in the coming days. Our guidance for Cummins for this year assumes the inclusion of Atmus in our consolidated results for the entirety of 2024 and excludes any costs or benefits of the separation. The benefits to Cummins are expected to include a lower number of shares outstanding, upon completion of the exchange. We will update our guidance as and when the separation is completed. Thank you for your interest today. Now, let me turn it back over to Chris.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Thank you, Mark. Out of consideration to others on the call, I would ask that you limit yourself to one question and a related follow-up. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue. Operator, we're ready for our first question.

[Operator]

...Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment while we pull for questions. Our first question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Yes, hi, good morning, everyone.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Good morning, Jerry.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Jennifer, Mark, Chris, so normally, when you folks have new engine regulations, we tend to see higher margins from you folks. I know we're a couple of years out from the 2027 regulations, but can you just share some high-level thoughts? It looks like the average selling price of engine could double, given the embedded warranty increase. And I'm wondering if you just comment on that and then broadly, just talk about the parameters of how do you expect the dynamic to play out for your business compared to the margin expansion we've seen on prior emission cycles, where you folks have increased your value add? Thanks.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah, thanks for the question, Jerry. You know, so as you've seen from us in the past, as we launch product with new emissions regulations, typically we see a content increase, of course, and then also look at creating value for our customers and have an opportunity to price accordingly with them. So, you know, we are looking to continue to do that as we launch new products, in particular, these fuel-agnostic engine platforms. Of course, we also typically see a bump up in our warranty costs because we are beginning to accrue in at a high rate until we've demonstrated capability of that platform. So that's the other factor to watch as we launch those products.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

But, you know, what you see us doing right now is really focusing on improving operating performance of the business, as well as investing in these key platforms for the future that we believe will bring value to our customers and position the company for profitable growth.

[Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs]

Okay, super. And then, can I ask, separately, you know, given the high logistics costs that the industry saw in 2023, can you comment on where your labor hours per unit stand today versus normal? And, you know, to what extent could that be a source of upside relative to the guide?

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Yeah, Jerry, I think, I think that has been a, you know, as we've progressed through 2023, continued to drive more and more efficiency. Some of the supply chain hiccups that we have experienced are beginning to iron out. We're getting better on time to delivery, and that does allow us to drive more efficiency in our plants. So I think we are continuing to see that as we progress through the latter half of the year. As we expect, you know, as both Jen and Mark mentioned, volumes to particularly in the North America heavy-duty truck space come down a bit and moderate a bit, we can continue to drive those efficiencies. So I think the cost per for labor hour will continue to get better.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

I would say the overall costs on labor have somewhat leveled out. You know, we went through, as you know, a long period of them rising, and through the course of the last six months, that has settled down and become much more of a flat.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yeah, I would say in the near term, there's a little bit of increased anxiety about, you know, events in the Middle East and some shipping delays and some reversing of the trend we've seen in logistics costs, which have been actually going down for us, Jerry. I don't want to overstate that. It's obviously is a little bit of a concern in the near term.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Tim Thein, with Citigroup. Please proceed.

[Tim Thein, Research Analyst at Citigroup]

Thanks. Good morning. Maybe just one bit of a clarification, but on the comments on for engine shipments in North America for on-highway, I think you said a hundred and called a hundred and 140,000, down 5%-10%. Is that was that relative to the total heavy and medium duty market, or was that a comment just on heavy duty in terms of work?

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Yeah, on the medium duty, Tim, we had it down 5% to flat, and that’s 140 to 150. The heavy duty market, we have it down 10%-15%, and that’s our guide for the year, so.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

I'll just give a little, a little color. I mean, this, you know, this has been an unusual cycle. I think you're all seeing that with, you know, very high usage of trucks in the 2021, 2022 timeframe, and supply constraints that prevented the industry from fully meeting customer demand, and that has improved over the course of 2023. You know, we saw the markets peak really in the second quarter and saw some slight drop off in the second half, but to the high end of our guide, it was not as much as we had forecast. Going into Q1, you know, backlogs look strong. You know, in particular, feeling quite good about the medium duty market and, you know, continuing to watch what happens.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

We are still predicting a shallow cycle and further softening as we go into the second half of the year. So that, you know, just some color behind those numbers is how I would describe that.

[Tim Thein, Research Analyst at Citigroup]

Okay. I had a question on kind of what that implied in terms of the market share, but I can follow up with Chris after. The second one is just on the implied decrementals for the engine segment in 2024. And obviously, that's kind of a high 30% number. The JV income will certainly be a drag on that, but maybe with... Not to go through every single piece, but-

[Tim Thein, Research Analyst at Citigroup]

... the, you know, the parts headwind was pronounced in 2023 for Cummins, and I'm just curious for that piece specifically. You outlined the, the guidance for the off-highway parts outlook, but for that and anything else that maybe you'd call out that's relevant to the year-over-year margin performance for engines. Thank you.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yeah. Good, good question, Tim. And the main thing that you didn't cover there was just our assumptions around product coverage. We're not expecting any significant change, but baked into our guidance is a little bit higher product coverage or warranty as a percent of sales in the engine business. We'll see how that plays out, but that's the other factor that's in there that you didn't list.

[Operator]

Our next question is from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

[David Raso, Senior Managing Director, Partner, and Head of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI]

Hi, thank you. Just sort of a bigger picture question. I know there's been a lot of costs involved, and you're right in the thick, of course, of a, you know, call it a decade-long energy transition, that there's a lot of expenses. I'm just curious, if you look out over the next year or two, is there an inflection point that you see your cost begin to recede? And if not, is there a thought of maybe a larger cost out program? I recognize the separation program you discussed, but just something of maybe more substantial size, you know, just given relative to other, you know, names we look at. They've had a, you know, real strong run on profitability the last couple of years, and it's been a little more of a challenge for your margin.

[David Raso, Senior Managing Director, Partner, and Head of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI]

So just curious if you see something on the horizon that really changes that, be it cost inflection or maybe a, you know, an idea you've proactively—I mean, sorry, spend inflection coming down or something on the cost side that maybe you can do. Thank you.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah, David, thanks for the question. You know, first I'll say, you know, I think you said decade long energy transition. I would just put an S on that, decades long, right? It's gonna take time. The reality is, if you look across our different markets and regions, it's gonna take time for that transition to occur. We are in a period, though, of really peak investment in the engine business, as we invest in these fuel-agnostic engine platforms.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

You know, we've got a major investment in R&D and capital to do that, and we think that those engines are gonna really position us well with high-efficiency diesel products as customers, you know, have and continue to decide not to invest in their own platforms and to use Cummins, and then also the fuel flexibility that will help customers as they begin to transition, whether it's natural gas or a hydrogen-based engine solutions. And so the next few years, until we launch those platforms in the 2026, 2027 timeframe, you know, we're seeing higher levels of R&D in those products. And then, of course, we're also in a period where we've got somewhat lower revenue and higher investments in the Accelera business. And we are pacing that investment based on how we see the market moving.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

You know, we're looking at opportunities to share investments while having a leading solution, like you saw us do with the battery cell joint venture. As revenues grow, we improve parts of those businesses and electrified components. We've now delivered 1,500 buses with Blue Bird, you know, and ramping up the electrolyzer that will help improve margin performances, the business there. And then the last thing I'd say is, you know, as Cummins has done and we will continue to do, we're looking at how do we improve different parts of our business. And so following the acquisition of the North America distribution business, we had a focused investment on improving margin there, and you see that playing out in the distribution business performance. And I talked about the focus last year that started in our power systems business.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

You say you see that playing out there, the Meritor integration, and we're continuing to look at places that we can improve operating performance of our business, and then watch market demands and costs. So the voluntary reduction actions that we took last year help us as we see some reduction in revenue this year. So all those things come together to allow us to continue to improve our, our returns to our investors, while making sure we're investing in key products and technologies for the future.

[David Raso, Senior Managing Director, Partner, and Head of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI]

All right. Thank you. And just if you don't mind, real quick, and I'll hop off. The cadence of the declines in North America truck that you're, you're looking to experience as the year goes on, can you give us a little sense of the cadence, maybe from an industry perspective, and would your declines, the cadence, be any different? Just the idea of the lead lag between what's in inventory, how early you ship. Just trying to get a sense for the cadence and how you relate to the industry cadence. Thank you.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah. Great. So you know, obviously there's some lead that we have in supplying engines into truck build, so our engine build rates will slightly lead truck build rates. But as I said earlier, from a guide perspective, you know, we think where we were running as we ended the year is gonna hold pretty steady through the first part of the year, and then we're forecasting some softening toward the end of second quarter and into the second half of the year.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

In a medium-duty truck, there really isn't that much difference between the two, market and ours, and then heavy-duty, that's where we see a little bit more vulnerability for the market and would largely expect us to move in line with the market.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah. And then the last dynamic is in pickup. We've got the product changeover that'll drive Q4 volumes lower in pickup.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of US Machinery & Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to unpack that cadence for the second half a little bit more. I think last quarter you had indicated aftermarket was an area that maybe was giving you a bit of a signal that there was a bit of a softening, and I think you indicated that things came in at maybe the higher end of your expectations, and you kind of see that continuing into the first half.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of US Machinery & Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

So as we kind of position that second half slowdown and now an expectation for aftermarket to actually pick up from being kind of flat to up 5% through the year, can you tell us, I guess, what you're seeing in terms of customer, you know, commentary and any kind of signs or what kind of gives you confidence in that second half slowdown and as we think about the year?

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yeah, I'll have a go, first go at that question. First of all, I'll just say on aftermarket, we saw a very pronounced, I would say, some element of destocking or lower production across our at lower demand in parts in Q4, which we largely attribute to customer cash flow management. We don't expect that to be a continuing trend. We expect to recover from Q4 levels on parts and be pretty steady across the year. On the truck builds, well, of course, you've heard from most of our major customers, so we really don't have much more to say other than the backlog of trucks has been slowly edging down. And then the thing that gives us the broader concern is the spot rates and the health of the truck fleet operators. That's our principal concern.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

It's not our OEM customers, and right now the backlog and the orders still continue at, you know, quite decent levels. It's what's happening to the underlying economics of freight activity, that's what's giving us the concern, combined with which hasn't been moving in the right direction, combined with the slowly easing heavy-duty backlog. So it isn't the kind of pronounced downturn we might have seen in prior cycles at this point, but that's—those are the factors that are weighing into our consideration, and I think our guidance isn't more conservative than anybody else's, and we don't have any other observations beyond those, really.

[Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of US Machinery & Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Got it. That's, that's helpful. And then maybe pivoting to Accelera, I just wanted to maybe unpack that a little bit in terms of, curious what you're seeing in the backlog trends from Q3 to Q4. And as you kind of deliver on, at least the, on the electrolyzers, you know, over the next 12 to 18 months, can you talk to us, I guess, about the, the cadence of the profitability of that business? We kind of exit 2024, and you start, to have higher deliveries on, on, on those, and you know, maybe what you kind of foresee the exit rate will be, in terms of that profitability.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah. So, you know, we are in a period of still pretty heavy investment in the Accelera businesses are really making both R&D and manufacturing investments to scale up the product. And we're fortunate we have, you know, existing plant in Fridley that we can invest within to do that, to begin to produce electrolyzers. And we continue to see growing demand, and backlog is, as I noted, at a record level for electrolyzers. So that production rate is going to begin to grow, and then you'll see margin performance in the electrolyzer portion of the business improving as the revenues grow, and we deliver that backlog out into the market. Same thing in our electrified components business. As we see revenue growth there, you'll see margin performance improving.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

You know, one thing we have now included in our 2024 investment, of course, is beginning to invest in the battery cell joint venture, and we believe that, you know, that is a key investment that we're making together to ensure we have a leading cell for commercial vehicles here in the U.S., and domestic supply, which will both allow our, you know, us and our customers to take advantage of incentives that are available and ensure security of supply over time into this market.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Rob Wertheimer, with Melius Research. Please proceed.

[Rob Wertheimer, Director, Founding Partner, and Machinery Analyst at Melius Research]

Yeah, hi. I wonder if you could give us some thoughts on what's happening in the data center and large engine market. I mean, obviously, it's very strong. I don't know how many years of visibility you have or what that market looks like. Your primary competitor announced a capacity expansion. I don't know where your capacity and your room to grow into that market, if it is, you know, a multi-year kind of curve like. So I wonder if you could kind of give us an update on dynamics there.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah. The data center market is an exciting, growth market, has been for several years, a trend with, you know, increasing cloud data, data storage in the cloud, and now with, artificial intelligence and other investments. You know, we continue to see very strong demand. We guided up 10%-15%. Backlog for that market is very, very strong. We're looking at our capacity to make sure that we, can meet the market demand and feeling good about the product offering that we have. And of course, you know, that business and the focus on improving underlying the performance of that business will help us as that market grows.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Probably the clearest secular trend over the next couple of years.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

I don't... Yeah, I think it will continue.

[Rob Wertheimer, Director, Founding Partner, and Machinery Analyst at Melius Research]

And then do you have room to grow in, you know, in 25 and 26? Maybe you don't want to share too much on your capacity, but it seems as though you're probably, you know, you're probably being asked to quote or to think about, you know, capacity that far out, right?

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah. I will just say we expect that that trend of data center market growth will continue. And we, you know, we are, and we'll continue to look at our capacity and how we position to meet that demand.

[Rob Wertheimer, Director, Founding Partner, and Machinery Analyst at Melius Research]

Okay, perfect. I'll stop there. If I can sneak one more in on medium duty, there's a bit of a narrative that, you know, as COVID just, you know, constrained production, the OEMs prioritized large, you know, Class 8 over the medium duty, and that's reflected somewhat in industry outlooks and year out. I'm just wondering if, you know, if medium duty has more inherent demand than that, being helped by interest rates or anything else, or if that's kind of where the market is, kind of flattish? And I'll stop there.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah, I mean, there were, you know, certainly the OEMs experienced a number of supply chain constraints and continued in 2023 and even into the early part of this year, frame rails in particular. So we are, as you saw, really expect the medium duty market to continue to hold pretty flat to where it is now. It's quite strong. We, of course, have a strong position in that market, and we're seeing continued, you know, demand and pent-up demand from some of the customers in that market for our product.

[Operator]

Our next question-

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Less softening there than heavy duty.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So I think you highlighted ZEV adoption scenarios at your last Analyst Day. As of today, I, I know you're hosting another Analyst Day this year, but as of today, which scenario, the fast versus slow, seems more likely? And how, how do you think that affects your Accelera target of $6 billion-$13 billion revenue by 2030? So any, any update, updates on that?

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah. You know, as you said, we did a kind of a low and a high scenario for adoption at our last Analyst Day, and you can expect that we're gonna refresh our view of that as we go into the Analyst Day in May. What I would say is that, you know, there are regulations and incentives that are helping to start to drive that adoption, maybe more towards the lower end of those scenarios, is what we would think, and we are continuing to look at pacing of investment to make sure that we're managing that in line with how we see adoption actually occurring.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Got it. So if it's more leaning toward, let's say, the slower version, does that have a, you know, dampening or somewhat negative or slowing impact on the Accelera targets that you have out there?

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Yeah, I mean, we're still within. It would still fall within the range that we gave in the Analyst Day, consistent with those range of scenarios that we suggested. And recall that, you know, a large portion of that revenue in 2030 for Accelera is in the growth of the electrolyzer business as well.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Noah Kaye, with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed.

[Noah Kaye, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co]

Thanks so much. First, sort of a housekeeping question. Just trying to understand cash flow dynamics as we exit the year and the leverage profile. You know, obviously, the settlement impacts that a bit, but you know, you typically have a target to return 50% of you know, cash flow to shareholders. How are we thinking about return to capital this year and where you're kind of aiming to end the year on leverage?

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yeah. So morning, Noah. So we're gonna start the year with the same stance as last year: invest in the business, dividend focus, and some more delevering. That's, that's the way we're starting the year. We'll continue to evaluate that with our board as we see how the cycle unfolds. At least that's our initial stance. Of course, part of our... In years where we've generated more cash than we've needed, then we've returned significantly more than the 50% in any given year. But anyway, we think this is the wisest approach right now until we see a little bit more on the cycle.

[Noah Kaye, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co]

Right. So you do expect to delever as we get to the-

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yes.

[Noah Kaye, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co]

- end of the year? Yep. Okay.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yes.

[Noah Kaye, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co]

And then just the guide for China truck seems a bit wide. Can you kind of talk us through the low end and the high end of the range in terms of the scenarios you're envisioning? You know, is it high end contingent on stimulus? Just walk us through, you know, what you're seeing in China.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yeah. That really reflects low visibility, right? So we've come off a very weak base, but there just isn't clear signals yet from the market as to what's actually gonna happen, so we can build a case. It's hard for me to think of a case that's a lot lower than where we are today, but just the overall pace of the economy continues to be sluggish, and so that upside really leaves room for something unexpected on the stimulus side, which has happened from time to time in China. But we don't have brilliant insight at this point in time, though the outlook is cloudy, and the conviction from OEMs is not quite there yet. We're doing well with our customers, launching more products.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

We're bullish on continuing to outgrow in the market in China, both consolidated revenues and in the performance of the JVs. Excuse me. So we're all set to outperform. We just need a little bit of help from the market overall, but it's not as tangible as we'd like at the start of the year. Of course, we'll look at the same data points and provide you with an update, hopefully by the end of Q1. We tend to have a stronger view of the year coming out of this point. Yes, and my voice is done for the rest of the morning, I think.

[Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO at Cummins]

Chris and I will answer the rest of the questions.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

On China.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Yeah. Thanks, Noah.

[Operator]

Our final question is from Michael Feniger with Bank of America. Please proceed.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Yeah, thank you guys for squeezing me in. Just the share count's been kind of flat to slightly up. There was a comment in the release about a focus on debt reduction, payment of dividends. Can you just flesh out the priorities in 2024? Because I know Mark mentioned, you know, with Atmus, you know, I heard buybacks. Just maybe you can reiterate the framework of how we should kind of think about Atmus in 2024, as we move through the years, some of the puts and takes there.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Yeah, the main, the main impacts of Atmus separation will be obviously, they'll set off on their own, pursuing their growth strategy, and as this final step, we will swap common shares for, Investors will retire common shares in exchange for Atmus shares. So our share count will go down if the exchange is successful. The reason our share count here in the past 18 months hasn't been changing or drifting up is because we stopped the share repurchases while we delevered post the Meritor acquisition, which we've been telegraphing to investors. We've got a little bit more of deleveraging to go, and then we'll continue to evaluate whether we, what our opportunities are to generate the best returns for investors, either through organic growth or through more capital returns. But that's the basic way it's gonna work.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

The share count will go down on the separation.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Fair enough. And Mark, I wanna let you go and get better. Just quick question for you is, just on Meritor, I think 2023, I think there's revenue about $4.8 billion, maybe EBITDA a little bit above $500 million. Just when we think of the guide for 2024 on components, anything you can help us unpack about how that Meritor in 2023, how that kind of trends in 2024 relative to your overall components guide? Thanks, everyone.

[Mark Smith, VP and CFO at Cummins]

Got it. And I will say I'm feeling better than I sound, and that's largely because of the record cash flow. So please, as I said at the start, don't read into my breaking voice. Meritor achieved the goals we had for this year. It is not a segment on its own. We provided that data for the, for the first full year for transparency purposes, to make sure investors had a read on how we were doing after a little bit of a bumpy start when we first acquired Meritor. So that's all rolled into the guidance, but it's safe to say we've got further improvement in Meritor going into 2024, and we're really pleased with how the team's doing there, Ken Hogan and his team. So we're excited about that going forward. So thank you. Thanks, everybody. Appreciate it.

[Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Operator]

This will conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris for closing comments.

[Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations at Cummins]

Thank you, everybody. That concludes our teleconference for the day. I appreciate all of you participating and your continued interest. As always, the investor relations team will be available for questions after the call. Take care.

[Operator]

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

Participants

Executives

• Chris Clulow, VP of Investor Relations
• Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and CEO
• Mark Smith, VP and CFO

Analysts

• Angel Castillo, Executive Director and Head of US Machinery & Construction Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• David Raso, Senior Managing Director, Partner, and Head of Industrials and Machinery Research at Evercore ISI
• Jerry Revich, Senior Investment Leader and Head of US Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech Franchise at Goldman Sachs
• Michael Feniger, Managing Director of Equity Research at Bank of America
• Noah Kaye, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co
• Rob Wertheimer, Director, Founding Partner, and Machinery Analyst at Melius Research
• Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan
• Tim Thein, Research Analyst at Citigroup