North American Construction Group Q1 2024 Earnings Report

North American Construction Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.50
• Consensus EPS: $0.51
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.71

North American Construction Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $220.33 million
• Expected Revenue: $217.28 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$3.05 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

North American Construction Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2024
• Date: 5/2/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, May 2, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

North American Construction Group (NYSE:NOA) Ltd (NYSE: NOA) is a Canadian industrial company headquartered in Edmonton, Alberta, that specializes in providing integrated heavy construction equipment solutions. Through its two core segments—Sales and Rentals—the company offers a comprehensive portfolio of new and used off-highway trucks, wheel loaders, hydraulic excavators, dozers and motor graders, along with aftermarket parts and maintenance services.

In its Sales division, North American Construction Group partners with leading global equipment manufacturers to distribute and support a broad range of heavy machinery across multiple industries. The Rentals segment maintains a diversified fleet of machines to support customers on short- and long-term projects, complemented by on-site maintenance, custom attachments and operator support programs. The company’s aftermarket services include parts distribution, refurbishment and rebuild capabilities designed to extend equipment life and optimize fleet performance.

North American Construction Group serves a variety of sectors including oil sands, mining, forestry, road building and general construction, with more than 30 branch locations across Western Canada, including Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Manitoba. The company emphasizes safety, operational excellence and customer service, led by a management team with deep experience in heavy equipment and industrial services. Its regional footprint and diversified service offerings position it to support infrastructure and resource development projects across North America.

North American Construction Group Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Strong Q1 financial performance with record EBITDA of $93 million (27% margin), driven by Australian operations and diversified business units.
• Successful integration of the Australian acquisition and award of a $500 million five-year contract extension in metallurgical coal, boosting backlog and fleet utilization prospects.
• Current fleet utilization remains below targets in Canada (impacted by mobilizations and winter work) with a goal to exceed 75% by year-end and over 85% in Australia.
• Operational improvements include a 50% reduction in life-saving rules violations, enhanced frontline safety training, and telematics-driven maintenance savings of nearly $2 million in Q1.
• Capital allocation prioritizes deleveraging (net debt/EBITDA at 2.0x) with projected free cash flow of $160–185 million directed to debt reduction while evaluating M&A or share buybacks.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the North American Construction Group Conference Call regarding the first quarter ended March 31, 2024. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following management's prepared remarks, analysts, shareholders, and bondholders to ask questions. The media may monitor this call in a listen-only mode. They are free to quote any member of management, but they are asked not to quote remarks from any other participant without the participant's permission. The company wishes to confirm that today's comments contain forward-looking information and that actual results could differ materially from conclusion, forecast, or projection contained in that forward-looking information. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing conclusions or in making forecasts or projections that are reflected in the forward-looking information.

[Operator]

Additional information about those material factors is contained in the company's most recent management discussion and analysis, which is available on SEDAR and EDGAR, as well as on the company's website at nacg.ca. I will now turn the conference over to Joe Lambert, President and CEO.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thanks, Enrico. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call today. I'm going to start with a few slides showing our Q1 operational performance before handing it over to Jason for the financial overview, and then I will conclude with our 2024 operational priorities, bid pipeline, backlog, outlook for 2024, and finish up with our capital allocation plans before taking your questions. On Slide three, our Q1 safety performance remains well below our industry-leading target frequency of 0.5, and we have reduced our life-saving rules violations by 50% from Q1 last year. These and work hours. We currently are focusing our safety efforts on frontline leadership training, improving our peer-to-peer recognition program, and increasing leadership visibility in the field. On Slide four, we highlight some of the major achievements of Q1.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Our recently acquired Australian business continues to deliver strong and consistent results even after some heavy rain-impacted summer months, and the backlog down under increased significantly with the award of AUD 500 million, five-year contract extension with our long-term metallurgical coal-producing client. With our integration team now resident and our Australian bid pipeline showing continued strong demand, we remain confident that the Australian market will play a dominant role in maximizing our fleet utilization and return on assets. The first equipment transfers to Australia have reached their shore, and we're excited about the long-term opportunities we see in the Australian market. Our Fargo-Moorhead Flood Diversion Project smoothly ramped up in Q1 in advance of its first big summer construction season, and we remain confident in our overall project plan.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Our telematics system continues to provide maintenance savings, achieving a record quarterly saving of almost CAD 2 million in Q1, and we're evaluating some Australian assets for an initial rollout of telematics in Q1. Lastly we were awarded a three-year contract in oil sands, which generated about CAD 225 million in 2024 backlog. On Slide five, we show fleet utilization by region. Australian utilization remains strong, with Q1 ending on a March high note after a few high rainfall impacted summer months. In Canada, our utilization suffered from mobilization of fleets between oil sand sites in February and lower volumes of winter reclamation work.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

We remain on trend and confident in our ability to hit our Canadian target range of over 75% by the end of this year, and we'll also be looking to similarly increase our Australian fleet to over 85% during this same period. I'm sure some may believe our Canadian utilization targets are a stretch after coming off that February low. However, if you consider the units we expect to transfer and some sales of smaller assets, combined with improving mechanical availability and no further anticipated fleet mobilizations, our math still suggests we are capable of exceeding our target before year-end. With that, I'll hand over to Jason for the Q1 financials.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Thanks, Joe. Good morning, everyone. Getting right into it and starting on Slide seven, the headline EBITDA number of CAD 93 million and a correlated 27% margin were driven by a successful second quarter from Australia since the change of control on October 1, 2023. Our margin, in particular, along with the combined gross profit margin of 18%, illustrates a strong operational quarter. All business units contributed to this margin, with the exception of Nuna, which posted EBITDA margin of less than 10% in the quarter when factoring out the one-time costs that were incurred as part of the restructuring during the quarter. The EBITDA margin illustrates project execution risk in the joint venture and is a metric indicative of why a change was needed. Restructuring efforts were completed during the quarter, and the projects in Northern BC and the Northwest Territories were finalized.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Restructuring expenses incurred and added back for adjusted earnings purposes relate to severance costs and one-time expenses required to complete legacy projects. Moving to Slide eight and our combined revenue and gross profit. As we will have for two more quarters, MacKellar provided a step change in the quarter-over-quarter variance. On a total basis, we are up CAD 53 million quarter-over-quarter. MacKellar and DGI, which we combine in Australia in our results, were up CAD 128 million, almost identical to the Q4 variance, which could have been higher if the rainfall in January and February had been less severe. This rainfall impact can be seen in Australia's equipment utilization, which got back to 80% in March after being in the mid-70s for the first two months of the year.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

This positive variance was offset by the lower equipment utilization in the oil sands region. Our share of revenue generated in the quarter by joint ventures was a net CAD 29 million lower than Q1 2023. The Fargo-Moorhead project had a steady operational quarter, was up CAD 10 million, and achieved project metrics and milestones required of the project schedule. More than offsetting this positive, though, was the variance impact of the completion of the construction project at the gold mine in Northern Ontario in Q3 2023, which led to lower quarter-over-quarter revenues within the Nuna Group of Companies. Combined gross profit margin of 18%, despite another challenging quarter posted by Nuna, reflects the strength of a diversified business.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Gross profit margins benefited both from the operations in Australia, which were higher than 20% in the quarter and is normal course, and from ML Northern, whose fleet lowers our internal costs as well as generates strong margins from services provided to external customers. Moving to Slide nine. Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA was consistent with and confirmatory. The 27% margin we achieved reflects an effective operating quarter, and with the positive 2023 trend from the Q4 and Q3 margins of 25% and 22% respectively, is indicative of where we see our business trending and operating at. Included in EBITDA, general administrative expenses were CAD 11.1 million in the quarter, equivalent to 3.8% of revenue, which remained under the 4% threshold we've set for ourselves.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Going from EBITDA to EBIT, we expensed depreciation equivalent to 14% of combined revenue, which reflected the depreciation rate of our entire business, including the equipment fleet at the Fargo-Moorhead Project. When looking at just the wholly owned entities and our heavy equipment in Canada and Australia, the depreciation percentage for the quarter was 14.8% of revenue and reflected the addition of the Australian fleet, as well as first quarter operations in the oil sands, which require higher idle time due to the cold weather. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter of CAD 0.78 was CAD 0.18 down from Q1 2023, as the impacts of higher interest are factored in.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

The average interest rate for Q1 was over 9% in the quarter, the highest rate we've paid in a long time, and remains a compelling indicator for us as we look to pay down debt in the back half of 2024. Moving to Slide 10. Net cash provided by operations prior to working capital was CAD 74 million and generated by the business reflecting EBITDA performance, net of cash interest paid. Free cash flow usage of CAD 36 million was driven by the CAD 62 million draw on working capital accounts and CAD 60 million spent on our front-loaded sustaining capital maintenance and replacement programs.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Moving to Slide 11, our PPE of CAD 1.2 billion is up CAD 470 million from the pre-MacKellar, September 30, 2023 balance on the CAD 430 million worth of assets we purchased in 2023, and CAD 20 million of growth assets purchased this quarter in Queensland and Western Australia. Net debt levels ended the quarter at CAD 781 million, an increase of CAD 58 million in the quarter due to the CAD 36 million of free cash flow usage, as well as the investment in growth assets. Net debt and senior secured debt leverage ended at 2.0x and 1.6x, respectively, and are considered reasonable levels six months after a transformative, fully debt-funded acquisition. With that, I'll pass the call back to Joe.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thanks, Jason. Looking at Slide 13, this slide summarizes our priorities for the year. At the high points. The MacKellar integration continues to progress smoothly. As I mentioned in my letter to shareholders, we are thrilled with the Australian market in general and see great opportunities for growth and continued efficiency improvements with our stronger systems and processes in place. Under the second point, we highlight our ongoing efforts to win strategic projects for our business. As we look to sustain and grow our infrastructure business, we will need to win infrastructure work and, with a strong fit, potential US infrastructure in the bid pipeline, we have initiated a partnership with a known international construction company and set this year's priority to qualify on one major infrastructure project.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

The second part of this priority is to win a meaningful project that uses our smaller mining assets that are currently underutilized in our oil sands business. We have several active tenders that would utilize these smaller assets, and we expect to win one of these projects this year. Item three prioritizes continued expansion of our operational and maintenance expertise. We will prioritize new technologies such as our telematics system, and continue to in-house and vertically integrate our maintenance services and supply, including near-term focus on identifying and sharing best practices between our Canadian and Australian businesses. We believe this prioritization and focus will continue to lower costs and improve equipment utilization, result in likelihood of winning the tenders mentioned in the previous item two. The final area prioritizes returning Nuna back to operational excellence and setting it up for growth and consistent performance.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

This work commenced earlier this year, and I am confident the changes made that Nuna will be back on its feet in time for their big summer projects and growing up a much stronger and stable foundation before the end of the year. Moving on to Slide 14. Our bid pipeline has grown significantly with over CAD 500 million in additional projects under tender. While we anticipate strong demand in oil sands to continue for many years, the diversified opportunities in Australia and the strong demand for heavy equipment also present avenues for further diversification, improved returns and improved return on assets. There's a handful of these bids that are integral to our business.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Two projects in oil sands, consisting of one consisting of typical summer civil works that should be awarded imminently, and a big stream diversion project, which we expect to submit in Q2 with award in late Q3, are important projects for improving near-term utilization on our smaller mining assets. Longer-term opportunities to fully utilize these smaller mining assets have been tendered in multi-year projects in a Quebec iron ore mine and a South Australian magnetite mine. Our larger mining assets, which remain in high demand and utilization, but are in general uncommitted beyond 2024, have been tendered into opportunities for five-year commitments in New South Wales and Queensland coal operations. We are excited about these opportunities, and a couple of wins would provide meaningful insight and stability into our projections for 2024 and beyond.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

On Slide 15, our backlog stands at CAD 3 billion. This includes the recent award of a major metallurgical coal mine in Queensland and the regional oil sands contract, balanced by our typical quarterly drawdown from executed work. This backlog enhances our confidence and predictability, particularly in our Australian operations. Slide 16 reiterates our outlook for 2024, and it's unchanged from our last presentation in March. Lastly, Slide 17 focuses on capital allocation. With continued high interest rate, we expect to use our projected free cash flow of CAD 160 million-CAD 185 million for deleveraging, while maintaining an open mind for more favorable risk-return opportunities that may arise. We continually analyze all options to ensure that our capital allocation decisions are both opportunistic and aligned with our long-term strategic goals.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

With that, I'll open up for any questions you may have.

[Operator]

Thank you. To ask a question, please press star one on your touch tone phone. If you wish to withdraw your question, you can press star two. Once you have completed your questions and would like to return to the queue, please press star one. After a brief pause, we will begin the QA section. Your first question comes from the line of Tim Monachello from ATB Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Hey, good morning, everyone.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Morning, Tim.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Morning, Tim.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

I just wanted to touch on the commentary around transferring assets and potentially selling some of the underutilized ones. Can you say how many assets you would view as structurally underutilized in the Canadian market that might be up for a transfer or sale?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

We'd be looking about 100 of them, Tim. Some of them that aren't committed into next year and some of them that aren't being used right now. So, there's some smaller ones we expect to get engaged in this summer work, like I mentioned, and we see opportunities next year in a few different areas. So those kind of five major projects that are under tender now, we think would get the utilization of that fleet, if we won a couple of those, into the high ranges we expect to be in. But, it's about 100 units. I'd say more weighted towards the smaller end of the fleet. So there's. It's disproportionate to where the smaller units are a bigger chunk of that 100.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. And would that wouldn't include the 20 that you've already transferred or are currently transferring?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, that would be part of it.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Oh, okay.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

So-

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

80 are additional units that you're looking at?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, we expect the ones we sent will actually get some utilization in late Q3.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Yeah, I was encouraged... Yeah, great. I was encouraged to see that those were going to work, with contracts.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Me, me too.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Are those going to existing sites or new sites in Australia?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

They're pretty much supporting existing sites.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

They were just opportunities. You know, they're not all going one spot. There were three here, four there, where there was opportunities where we didn't have fleet, either Western Plant Hire or MacKellar.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. And could you, I mean, put some bookends around, like, what the net asset value of those, that fleet would be? Like, the stuff that you view as underutilized.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

... you know, I don't have that offhand, Tim. I can probably get that for you later. I, yeah, I just, you know, we're looking at the number of units. The net asset value just depends on which units we pick, and it can vary dramatically between two different units of the same fleet based on, you know, what value is left in the component life of those assets. So two 200-ton trucks can vary by, you know, can differ by twice as much on what the net asset value is, based on what components are in it.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Right. Okay, that makes sense. And then in Canada, obviously, some weak utilization in Q1, but some optimism around growing utilization through the rest of the year. Curious if you could comment on how utilization for the Canadian fleet exited Q1 and is trending in Q2.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Well, it was definitely at a low in February when we were moving fleet around, and then started picking up in March. And yeah, we expect that to continue through Q2, and we expect to achieve that 75% by the end of the year.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. And then a big working capital build in the quarter. Jason, curious, can you talk a little bit about what, you know, the drivers of that were, and how you see that playing out for the rest of the year? Should that unwind?

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, we do expect it to unwind. It was primarily in Canada with a really busy March. You know, we booked some pretty sizable accounts receivable in the month and collected that in April, so we expect that to work itself out. You know, MacKellar had the same thing, although not as big, a working or an accounts receivable build in March, but they had a bigger March than January and February and built accounts receivable as well. So, yeah, expect it to unwind and hope, you know, for 2023, working capital full year was kind of neutral, and we kind of expect that for 2024 as well. It won't all unwind in Q2, but expect it to unwind over the nine months.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks a lot. I'll turn it back.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thank you, Tim.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen. Your line is now open.

[Aaron MacNeil, Director of Institutional Equity Research at TD Cowen]

Joe, I know you mentioned the bid opportunities for smaller mining assets, but it looks like, you know, some of the bigger bid opportunities in your pipeline don't occur until 2025. I know it's early, but as we think about, you know, 2025, what do you see as the big puts and takes year-over-year? Like, does it look a lot like 2024, with maybe the benefit of some fleet reallocation, or are there other major factors that we should be thinking about?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I think those opportunities in fleet allocations are not just to improve utilization, but and it's just inherent that you get more opportunities to put more hours on equipment in Australia just because of the weather and the way the projects are set up. So, you know, we do think there's upside in not just getting parked assets moving, but getting long-term commitments for stuff that was uncommitted in 2025 that may be highly utilized now. I haven't looked at what the net impact of that would be. Top line, I think we've always expected a kind of a 5% annual kind of improvement rate. I haven't embedded that with these actual numbers. There are some... You know, there are some big projects.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

You know, the coal ones I was talking about in Australia and the magnetite, you know, they're AUD 300-AUD 400 million jobs. And we would look at those, you know, say 30 or so of our 100 assets going to any one of those projects for opportunities where we can put that used, underutilized equipment to work. I mean, it won't be the entire fleet, and there'll probably be some adds in here and there for growth capital, for matching shovels or things like that, but we see it as a great opportunity to meet that growth curve.

[Aaron MacNeil, Director of Institutional Equity Research at TD Cowen]

So the 30 you just mentioned, would that be incremental over and above the 20 that you've already sent over there?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yes.

[Aaron MacNeil, Director of Institutional Equity Research at TD Cowen]

Got it. And then for the balance, I guess, you know, 20 plus 30 minus 100 is 50 remainder. Like, where do you think the most likely end markets for those sort of remaining 50 end up, if you had to guess?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I would say we place half of them into summer works in oil sands this year, and possibly into iron ore or Australian magnetite next year. And I think the, you know, the remaining, say, 20-odd units are likely ones that we would look at selling as is or rebuilding and selling. I do think there's some opportunities for our maintenance team to value add to those and rebuild, and we're evaluating those markets right now. It wouldn't be a huge dollar amount. You know, I'd say, I think I said something like CAD 20 million or...

[Aaron MacNeil, Director of Institutional Equity Research at TD Cowen]

Got it. That's, Joe, that's very helpful. Thanks. I'll turn it over.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

No worries. Thanks, Aaron.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bout of CIBC. Your line is now open.

[Analyst at CIBC]

Good morning, Joe and Jason. This is Rahul, along with Jacob.

[Analyst at CIBC]

... Good morning. Looking at Slide 5, targets of fleet utilization of about 85% in Australia and 75% in Canada. You talked a bit about this in the prepared remarks, but what would you say are the biggest factors that would help you with those targets?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I think the biggest factor is within our own control, and it's maintaining our high level of maintenance support for the fleet. So keeping that fleet operational when the demand's there. And then secondary, it's you know, getting these underutilized fleets put to work and winning those couple of bids, I said. But you know, it's maintaining the fleet, and even if demand's there, if you can't have mechanical availability to keep them running, you won't get the utilization. So you know, the biggest part of this is always within our control, and it's why we continue to push our maintenance team to continue improving and to continue their strong performance. And then the rest of it is about getting these assets placed where we think they've got long-term opportunities to continue to improve on utilization.

[Analyst at CIBC]

Right. Right. No, that's helpful. And then maybe just a question on Nuna. So you mentioned that restructuring was effectively done in Q1, and you've brought in new leadership. Would appreciate if you could talk a bit more about the steps, you know, that have been taken there at Nuna. And do you still see margins at Nuna getting back to normalized levels by the summer?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Starting from the end, yes. And, the steps we've taken really to bring in a lot more of the stronger project controls and processes, especially around contract administration and change management. And, just tune up those processes and get them up to North American standards. And, you know, I believe we've been able to. We've got guys in there who are extremely strong performers in these areas, and I'm very confident in that. And then I think there's some upside in continuing to look at how we can build synergies and the bench strength between our two offices, because we're both right here in Edmonton.

[Analyst at CIBC]

Great. All right. Appreciate it. Thank you very much.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Maxim Sytchev of National Bank Financial. Your line is now open.

[Maxim Sytchev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Hi, good morning, gentlemen.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Morning, Max.

[Maxim Sytchev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Joe, I was wondering if you don't mind maybe expanding a little bit on, MacKellar. Obviously, you know, very strong contribution from, from those assets, in the first two quarters. But, you know, curious to see, around sort of the, the integration, how that's been going, you know, ERP thoughts, and, and more importantly, how that will, impact, you know, potential profitability, some asset utilization on going forward basis. And, and, and maybe anything that you can mention in terms of the infrastructure opportunities, in Australia. So yeah, like, sort of, if you, if you don't mind, talking about this, it'd be helpful. Thanks.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, I guess I'll start with the infrastructure. I mean, we're still early days there. I don't have a lot of projects by name. You know, we're really just in that research and setting up teams, I guess, you know. And so it's pretty early days on that, and I expect more towards the end of Q2, Q3, we'd have better information on that. You know, the ERP system rollout's gone smoothly. We're expecting a Q3 rollout of that. I do think there's huge opportunities for us to gain on efficiencies.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

It's very hard to put a number to that, but I know that, you know, when you get stronger inventory control systems and stronger work order systems in your maintenance, there's an inherent improvement in your efficiency, just because you just know a lot more about your equipment, you know a lot more about your parts. And you know, I think we're going to see gains there. I just, I doubt we'll be able to measure them, because you're measuring against something that you don't know exists right now. But we've done this before. We've done it here, we've done it at Nuna, and we always identify things after the fact that we, there were improvements that we didn't even know were there.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

And, you know, there are continued opportunities and for, growth, extremely strong across really all commodity markets, I'd say, except for maybe nickel, and possibly lithium. That's really been the only downside in Australian markets. The, you know, the iron ore, the gold, all, all the coal from PCI, metallurgical thermal, extremely strong market and, you know, blue-chip clients that are willing to look at five-year terms, which is great when we're, when we're dealing with, you know, assets of this size, so. Anything I didn't cover up there, Max?

[Maxim Sytchev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at National Bank Financial]

No. Actually, just maybe building a little bit on sort of the opportunity on the commodity side of things, because you have extended one of your major contracts in Australia. I'm just wondering if there's any other ones that are on sort of rolling forward basis that need to be renewed. Thanks.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I don't think there's anything coming up within this year. I don't know if that slide in the back. I don't have it memorized, but I don't think there's any near-term items that need renewal. I think there's you know, next year and after that, there's some. And then, you know, most of these mines, MacKellar's been on for decades. So, you know, I think the risk of renewal is very low, especially in the you know, the major ones they're on, where they're the only supplier of equipment on and the two major coal mines, the one thermal and the met. So, you know, and everything I've heard and I've seen is we've had extremely positive client relationships.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I think with improved systems and performance down there, that's just going to get better.

[Maxim Sytchev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Right. Absolutely. Okay, thank you. Then maybe just one follow-up for Jason, if I may. So, again, like, as a lot of things on MacKellar side of things are being tightened up right now, how should we think maybe around, I don't know, like sort of EBITDA or free cash flow conversion from those assets, kind of like before and after talking directionally, how should we be thinking about this? Thanks.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah. We've been talking in kind of the on the margin side with the new ERP and tightening things up in the kind of 1%-3% range, max. We're not looking for step change in their margin profile. They're well over 30% as an EBITDA margin, and you know, very strong in their kind of cost culture and operational excellence. So we don't expect a step change there as far as margin. And yeah, you'll see their sustaining capital in the quarter came in kind of in a CAD 15 million range. And so yeah, their free cash flow conversion is probably 10%-15% higher than ours on a full year basis. We have a front-loaded capital program as opposed to them.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

You know, the run rate they've established here in the first six months, we see as being indicative. We're not expecting step changes with the ERP or even with the growth assets. It's—they're running at a pretty optimal level. Where we got to get them is their utilization up to, you know, and staying in the 80s and cresting 85.

[Maxim Sytchev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Yeah, makes sense. Okay, that, that's great. Thank you so much. That's it for me.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thank you, Max.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Frederic Bastien of Raymond James. Your line is now open.

[Frederic Bastien, Managing Director and Head of Industrials Research at Raymond James]

Good morning.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Good morning, Frederic.

[Frederic Bastien, Managing Director and Head of Industrials Research at Raymond James]

Guys, I know a priority of yours is to delever and bring down your debt to EBITDA ratio to within 1.5x by year end. But, do share buybacks reenter the picture with your stock price trading below CAD 30 right now?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

It's certainly always a conversation point, Frederic. It's... You know, we're-- it's how you measure the return on-- it's a risk-return discussion with the board all the time. You know, I would say that the return on the debt is high with us hitting our highest rates. And obviously, the risk when you pay down debt is nil. You know, so we're comparing that against risk versus return on where you think your share price should be fairly valued. And then even in looking at our growth, you know, we, we'll still look at bolt-ons and smaller stuff this year.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

If there was a bigger project odds M&A opportunity, we'll still have the discussion, but it likely would never not have an effect on this year because they're usually, like, like MacKellar was 2.5 years. But we'll still look at any opportunities for vertical integration, even growth capital, in winning some of these bids, where we might have to add some fleet. And, and balancing those, those risk versus returns with our, our base case of deleveraging and, and our share price. And yeah, there is a share price.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I like to get these things to a solid metric, and it'll be something we'll work with the board in our board meeting next month, to say, at what price do you switch, be it share price or at what return on a growth opportunity would we switch those deleverage dollars into growth capital or share buybacks? We expect to set those with firm numbers and have a clear understanding of that.

[Frederic Bastien, Managing Director and Head of Industrials Research at Raymond James]

Okay. Thanks, Joe. I appreciate that color. That's all I have.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

No worries. Thanks.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Thalhimer of Thompson Davis. Your line is now open.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Hey, good morning, guys. Congrats on the record Q1.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Good morning, Adam.

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Good morning.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Is it too early to give high-level thoughts for the oil sands demand in the next peak season? I'm thinking about this Q4 and the next year's Q1.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, I mean, we generally don't see our winter reclamation scopes until September or so, October. And so it's hard for us to gauge the winter programs. And they've varied our winter work. You know, if you go back over the last four or five years, our winter work has been as high as, you know, CAD 80 million in a winter with small truck works, to as low as CAD 20 million. And we've seen that kind of volatility in the winter scope works. As far as the, you know, the bulk work and the base overburden, we see that being steady or growing.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

This year's reductions were a bit of a surprise in scope, but generally, we think that's more of a deferral than an elimination. I expect volumes and demand in big earthworks in oil sands to increase next year. But I don't have that scope, and again, we did in one-year terms, and I would expect to see next year's volumes, I'm guessing sometime between July and September of this year for us to tender on for next year.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Okay, that's perfect. I know that's a hard question to answer. But there were so many moving parts last year. And then, in Australia, so you've called out weather for MacKellar for a couple of quarters, even though the results have been really strong. I'm just like, as I think about the year-over-year comp for MacKellar, how much was weather an impact in Q4, Q1?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Compared to their previous year? Or-

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

No. Sorry, I'm thinking so.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

They, they had significant, significant cyclone activity in Queensland in, in both Q4 and Q1, especially January and February. So they incurred a pretty wet year, and when you get a lot of rain there, roads actually start getting shut down, and you can't get supplies into mine sites. It's generally not the mine site's ability to operate as far as operators getting trucks. It's, it's getting supplies and people to the site, because massive rains have cut off road access, and that can last for a week at a time kind of thing.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Yeah, I guess I'm just thinking because of the weather, MacKellar, even though the results were good, they actually had easy comps, because of the weather-

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

... Q4, Q1. Is that fair?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

We would typically expect less weather-related disruptions than what we had this year. Usually, it would be more December, January-centric, and we actually had November, February kinda impacts as well.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Okay. And then the high end of the revenue guide, what would have to happen for you to trend more towards the high end this year?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

I'd say getting a lot of summer work in oil sands in the next few months.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Okay.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

And getting a big winter program that starts early, and picking up something like that iron ore mine in Quebec work.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Okay.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

And then-

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Well, good luck with that. We'll talk to you in a few months.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, yeah. It is... There's, there's a lot of moving parts right now, and that's for sure, but-

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Okay.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

No worries.

[Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis]

Perfect. Thanks, guys.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thanks, guys.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Prem Kumar, an individual investor. Your line is now open.

[Analyst]

Good morning, Joe. Good morning, Jason.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Good morning, Prem.

[Analyst]

I had a couple of questions on capital allocation. One of the previous gentlemen asked about buying back shares. My questions are along the same line, especially considering where the shares are trading and how reasonable the price is. So free cash flows of expected range for the year is around CAD 150 million-CAD 185 million. After you know, I'm assuming even after we hit the leverage target of 1.5 and paying the dividend, there'll be still quite a bit of money left on the table. How high are buybacks on the list for this incremental capital, I guess?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Like I said, right now, our default is to pay down debt because of the high rates. But, you know, we're gonna evaluate at whatever point in time and where the share price is. You know, I'd also say we have more opportunity as we get later in the year just because we're very back weighted in our free cash flow. So the bulk of that free cash flow comes in Q3 and Q4. And so that's really when we have more flexibility. You know, and at this point in time, we're looking at. We consider all those options. We consider M&A, growth opportunities, we'll look at increasing dividends, we'll look at share buybacks, and everything's gonna play on a balanced playing field of risk versus reward.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Those are discussions we have at every board meeting.

[Analyst]

Okay, thanks, Joe. And can you maybe talk a little bit about the acquisition landscape, like M&A, in terms of is there a pipeline of companies that you kind of keep a look on? And how are the valuations and just the landscape in general, and the geography? Maybe you're working mostly in Australia, Canada, other geographies, or can you give a bit more color on that, Joe or Jason? Thank you.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, I think there's always opportunities. You know, again, with low share price and things like in these positions, it's very hard to find accretive deals. But certainly, if there was another MacKellar deal like available, we would certainly pursue it. We're predominantly focused in North America and Australia now, but we've also considered South America as a potential, in particular, Chile. So if there was an opportunity there, we do see that market as having become more stable and having some growth opportunities going forward, especially with their strong copper and gold markets down there. So we keep an eye out for those, and if the opportunity comes, it's another deal that's highly accretive. Like that, we will certainly pursue it. It likely, like I said earlier, they don't develop overnight.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

They're usually, you know, a 1.5-2.5-year kinda processes, so we really wouldn't have expected anything, even if it was on our desk today to affect anything this year.

[Analyst]

Okay, thanks, Joe. That's all I had.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Karti Treasharawan. He's a private investor. Your line is now open.

[Analyst]

Hey. Hi, Joe. Hi, team. Thank you so much for this conference call. It's been a fantastic, you know, run with you folks so far. Just had a question. When I look at Joe's letter, he's mentioning about the contracts becoming more about time and material. So just wanted to understand, what is the implication on your EBITDA margin or any of those margin metrics that you want to talk of when you move towards contracts which are more of time and material as in nature?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, I was in particular, and I think I went into even more detail on the year-end stuff, that the work in the oil sands, that was typically more weighted towards unit rate work. In unit rate work, we got paid a fixed price per BCM of material or set unit of material we moved, productivity and weather risks. We have a lot more equipment rentals, maintained rentals, maintained and operated rentals, and time and material work than historical. I'd say just rough numbers, historically, we were probably 75% unit rate work. Now we're probably more like 25%, to give you a scale of things. And when you go into the rental side and...

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

It actually, we don't have the longer term commitments, and we don't have the upside potential, but we also don't have the downside potential. So typically, what you're gonna see is higher EBITDA margins and lower risk. The net margins would be the same, but because you don't have operators, labor in some of the stuff, and you're not wearing some of the operating costs, your EBITDA as a percentage of the overall rate is higher. Does that make sense to you?

[Analyst]

Sure, Joe. Thanks for this. Very helpful. Thank you.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

No worries.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Monachello of ATB Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Hey, guys, just a follow-up here. I'm wondering if you can help us contextualize the guidance range relative to your utilization targets. Like, what's in, what's embedded in your guidance on the top and bottom?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Well, we're expecting to get... Like, when we talk about 75 and 85, we're expecting to be above those marks at the end of the year. So if you want to know how it ramps up, I would just follow how we've put the EBITDA split in there and follow that on utilization, and with it ending at 75 or 85 in Q4. So I expect we're ramping up to probably a peak or Q3 peak, and then it fairly levels off in Q4 or slight dip in Q4, but we expect to be right there in that range.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay, so like the midpoint of your guidance would include you achieving those utilization targets. Is that the right way to think of it?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

By the end of the year, yeah.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

So, it's not – we're not gonna be at 75% in Q2.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Like, you won't do 75% on average in Canada in 2024?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Not on average. We will get-

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Right

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

... to 75 by the end of the year, and we would expect to be able to hold that through next year.

[Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets]

Got it. Okay. Appreciate it.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

No worry.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Phil Woodbridge of Woodbridge & Company. Your line is now open.

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Hi. So the tax rate seems to move around a fair bit. What could you say, just for modeling purposes, a reasonable nominal run rate for taxes would be? And how much would you call that, as being cash tax versus deferred?

[Jason Veenstra, CFO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah, great question. You know, we're at about 30% in Australia, 25% in Canada, so you could use a modeling rate of 27.5%, if you wanted to put a blended. And about half of that is cash taxable. Australia is cash taxable, given their history and, and their, you know, they don't carry loss carryforwards, and, and the Australia regime maxes out their tax depreciation. So we do pay cash taxes in Australia, but we don't have any cash taxes in Canada, this year. We expect to pay some cash taxes in Canada in 2025.

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Okay, thanks. And just review, I know you're a different beast than you were just six or nine months ago, so help me understand the seasonal pattern that we should see play out quarter to quarter during, over the course of the year.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

It's a unique year. We would expect when we get into next year, we're gonna be a lot more consistent quarter upon quarter. Because of the transition and the way the contract was awarded, the equipment movements and oil sands, we're actually at, you know, Q1 is our low this year, and we ramp up to a Q3, and with a slight drop in Q4. We've provided quite a bit of information around 45% in front half of the year, 55% of our EBITDA in the second half. And then I'd say that going forward in 2025, and I don't have those exact numbers, but my expectation is that it's a lot more consistent quarter from quarter, and we're not gonna see 10% variances between quarters.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

We're gonna be seeing single digit, you know, and-

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Great.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Yeah.

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Yeah, thanks. So paint the picture of long-term capability, growth capability for the company going over a number of years. Clearly, you have some vision to this, especially given your large backlog. How do you see the company being able to grow organically and whatever tuck-ins you have in mind over the next four or five years?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

You know, I think most of our tuck-ins, like when we vertically integrate, are more about reducing our internal costs by in-housing our maintenance. So that really, you know, what I would say is our growth opportunity. You know, I've always said, I think there's 5%-15% annual growth in our marketplaces. And if you look at, you know, the first 20% or 30% of that, we can pretty much cover with existing assets by increased utilization of existing assets. Obviously, those usually come with some growth capital. So, you know, I'll give you an example where we're looking at possibly placing some assets in Australia in a long-term contract. It's not just equipment we have. We have to actually go out and look at a few shovels that would complement the fleet as well.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

So it's not -- we don't have everything all the time. We have to add... And like Jason said, we added CAD 20 million in growth capital so far to meet the demands in the Australian marketplace. So you would get that kind of growth additions into that just by utilizing the fleet. But, you know, certainly that first 20-odd% of growth, we think we can do with existing assets and some minor top up on growth capital.

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Great. So plenty on your plate now as you continue to work in MacKellar. You know, so how long do you feel it takes to digest all of that, and the plate is now empty and you're ready for something significant again at one point in the future?

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

You know, one thing I'd say is very pleased in that we had the bench strength to place an integration team and change out leadership at Nuna all within the last six months. And I don't—you know, the business has been able to absorb that and not miss a beat on performance. And, so I'm very comfortable with that going forward, that we've got the people in place. And, you know, we've got a lot of things going on. You know, we're doing a turnaround at Nuna, and we're doing the integration in Australia. But I think it—the people that are there are very comfortable with the way they're performing that. I don't see a lot of anxiety in that.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

If something else came up, you know, our plate isn't empty, and nor do I ever expect it to be fully empty. But if something came up and there was a good opportunity, we wouldn't shy away from it because we don't have the resources. We have capability to do that.

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Except for the balance sheet. So I presume that's the principal limiting factor here.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

You know, I guess if we were to look at a debt-funded MacKellar tomorrow, but it, they don't happen at that speed. If it happens at the same speed that MacKellar did, and it's two years from now, I'd be very confident we got the balance sheet, you know, by the end of this year, frankly, to start looking at bigger things like that.

[Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co]

Great. Thank you.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

No worries. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes the Q&A section of the call, and I will pass the call over to Joe Lambert, President and CEO, for closing comments.

[Joe Lambert, President and CEO at North American Construction Group]

Thanks, Enrico. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to providing next update upon closing of our Q2 2024 results.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes the North American Construction Group conference call on

Participants

Executives

• Jason Veenstra, CFO
• Joe Lambert, President and CEO

Analysts

• Aaron MacNeil, Director of Institutional Equity Research at TD Cowen
• Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research and Partner at Thompson Davis
• Frederic Bastien, Managing Director and Head of Industrials Research at Raymond James
• Maxim Sytchev, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at National Bank Financial
• Phil Woodbridge, Analyst at Woodbridge & Co
• Tim Monachello, Managing Director and Institutional Equity Research Analyst at ATB Capital Markets
• Analyst
• Analyst
• Analyst at CIBC