Alpha Metallurgical Resources Q1 2024 Earnings Report

Alpha Metallurgical Resources EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $9.59
• Consensus EPS: $9.61
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.02
• One Year Ago EPS: $17.01

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $864.07 million
• Expected Revenue: $845.35 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$18.72 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -5.20%

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2024
• Date: 5/6/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Monday, May 6, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (NYSE:AMR) (NYSE: AMR) is a leading pure-play producer of high-grade metallurgical coal, primarily serving the global steelmaking industry. Headquartered in Bristol, Virginia, the company operates multiple underground and surface mining complexes across the central Appalachian and Illinois basins. Its production portfolio focuses on premium raw and semi-soft coking coal products tailored to meet the specifications of steel producers worldwide.

Formed in July 2021 through the spin-out of Contura Energy’s metallurgical coal business, Alpha Metallurgical Resources has built a reputation for operational excellence and cost-efficient mining. The company’s asset base includes both legacy operations and strategically acquired properties that benefit from well-developed infrastructure and established rail and port logistics. This integrated approach enables AMR to deliver consistent product quality while maintaining tight control over freight and handling costs.

Under the leadership of President and Chief Executive Officer Robert C. Williams III, AMR emphasizes sustainable mining practices and environmental stewardship. The company invests in advanced mining technologies, reclamation projects, and community engagement programs designed to minimize its environmental footprint and support the long-term vitality of the regions in which it operates. AMR’s management team brings decades of collective experience in coal mining, supply chain management and capital allocation.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources markets its metallurgical coal products to steel manufacturers in North America, Europe and Asia. By focusing exclusively on the metallurgical segment, AMR seeks to capitalize on industry trends toward higher-quality coal blends and to position itself as a reliable partner for steelmakers aiming to enhance furnace productivity and reduce coke-making costs. The company’s strategic emphasis on high-BTU, low-impurity coal varieties underpins its competitive positioning in the global coking coal market.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Alpha delivered $190 million adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2024 despite a significant softening of metallurgical coal markets starting in March.
• Since quarter end, further deterioration in market fundamentals has created a challenging backdrop for Q2, though the company remains confident in its volatility-resilient strategy.
• Through a nimble operating model, Alpha safely reduced costs by optimizing production and logistics without impacting full-year volume guidance.
• Alpha led all notable peers in MSHA tons per man hour for the eighth consecutive quarter, outperforming the next operator by roughly 14 percent.
• The share buyback program was intentionally paused to maintain liquidity, with $305 million repurchased in Q1 and $400 million of remaining authorization to be deployed when cash levels allow.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings. Welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources First Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may now begin.

[Emily O'Quinn, SVP, Investor Relations and Communications at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's first quarter 2024 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures. Participating on the call today are Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson, and our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead. Also participating on the call are Todd Munsey, our Chief Financial Officer, and Dan Horn, our Chief Commercial Officer. With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced financial results for first quarter 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $190 million. This was another solid quarter of work from the Alpha team, despite some challenging circumstances and a significant softening of met coal markets starting in March. Since the quarter closed, we've witnessed further deterioration in market fundamentals, which sets up a challenging backdrop for the second quarter. Although our Q2 performance will obviously reflect the market environment in which we're operating, I remain confident in Alpha's strength and ability to weather volatility. For more than a few years now, we've used the word nimble to describe how we prefer to operate, constantly evaluating lots of data to find areas that can be optimized or to plug cost leaks.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

We believe that this approach is valuable in all market conditions, but especially in down cycles, when quickly adapting to economic reality becomes a true necessity. In response to the sharp market decline that has occurred so far in 2024, we've made small adjustments to safely reduce costs where possible by optimizing production and logistics. Given our size and scale, the magnitude of these changes doesn't impact our previously announced volume expectations for the year, but these adjustments are allowing us to respond appropriately to deterioration in the market. We will continue monitoring external market drivers while also maintaining a close eye on controllable costs within our business and will take further action as necessary. As I visit our operations and talk with employees, I'm consistently impressed by the Alpha drive to overcome challenges and make the most of difficult circumstances.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Our first quarter performance is yet another example of this determination. Subjectively, I see it in mine visits, but there's also objective measures that don't get a lot of attention. One, in particular, is a productivity metric called tons per manhour. As is always the case, safe production is our highest priority at Alpha, and we continually promote a safety mindset first and foremost. Somewhat counterintuitively, we usually see that safety, efficiency, and productivity go hand-in-hand. MSHA, the Mine Safety and Health Administration, aggregates droves of data each quarter, including production by operator and tons per manhour, which is exactly as it sounds. As a company, Alpha consistently performs well and has led the pack in this measurement among room and pillar or continuous miner operators for the last eight quarters.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Despite the well-known differences between continuous miners and longwall operations, Alpha's operations often perform well against certain longwall operations, too. I'm proud to say that in Q1, Alpha led all of our notable peers, longwall operators included, with the tons per hour metric, roughly 14% more productive than the next operator in line. That kind of safe, consistent performance is a testament to the skill and effectiveness of our teams. We encourage this behavior among our operations and are consistently looking for ways to maintain this industry-leading position. During our fourth quarter earnings call, we discussed our intention to slow or pause the buyback program in an effort to build cash balances back up to our targeted levels. Especially given the market dynamics currently at play, we continue to believe this is the right strategy.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Our capital return philosophy remains the same and will continue to be driven by our cash flow. As minimum cash levels and market conditions allow, we will utilize available free cash flow for the buyback program. Lastly, we hosted our annual meeting of stockholders on May 2nd. This meeting included a vote to elect members of our board of directors. All 7 of our board members were elected by the shareholders to serve a term of one year. The full results of the annual meeting have been provided through our SEC filings. I'll now turn it over to Todd for additional details regarding our first quarter financial results.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks, Andy. First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $190 million, down from $266 million in fourth quarter of 2023. We sold 4.4 million tons in the quarter. Quarter-over-quarter realizations decreased for the met segment, with an average first quarter realization of $166.68, compared to $183.76 for the fourth quarter. Export met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the first quarter realized $172.24 per ton, while export coal priced on Australian indices realized $193.70. These are compared to realizations of $175.32 per ton and $213.41, respectively, in the fourth quarter.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Realization for our metallurgical sales in the first quarter was a total weighted average of $176.20 per ton, down from $193.54 per ton in the prior quarter. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the met segment decreased to $76.53 per ton in Q1, as compared to $89.76 per ton in Q4. Cost of coal sales for our met segment decreased to $115.65 per ton in the first quarter, down from $119 per ton in Q4. SG&A, excluding non-cash stock compensation and non-recurring items, increased to $19.9 million in the first quarter, as compared to $16.9 million in the fourth quarter.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Q1 CapEx was $63.6 million, up from $61.5 million in the fourth quarter. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of March 31st, 2024, we had $269.4 million in unrestricted cash, roughly flat against the $268.2 million at the end of the fourth quarter. We had $93.7 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the quarter. Alpha had total liquidity of $288.1 million as of the end of March, which is net of a $75 million minimum liquidity ABL covenant. Cash provided by operating activities decreased slightly quarter-over-quarter to $196.1 million in Q1, as compared to $199.4 million in Q4.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

As of March 31, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $61.3 million of letters of credit outstanding, up from $60.9 million in the prior quarter. Turning now to our committed position for 2024, 49% of our metallurgical tonnage in the met segment is committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $168.26. Another 49% of our met tonnage for the year is committed but not yet priced. The thermal by-product portion of the met segment is fully committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $76.10. With first quarter actuals and increased visibility into the balance of the year, we announced two adjustments to our 2024 guidance.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

We now expect idle operations expense for the year to be between $25 million and $33 million, up from the previous range of $18 million-$28 million. For the 2024 tax rate, we decreased guidance to a range of 10%-15%, down from the previous expectation of 12%-17%. During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 305,000 shares at a cost of approximately $116 million, including shares repurchased from employees in connection with tax withholdings on annual stock vestings. As of April 30th, 2024, the number of common stock shares outstanding was approximately 13 million. The remaining stock buyback program authorization permits approximately $400 million in additional repurchases, contingent upon cash flow levels and market conditions.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

We continuously monitor market conditions, and due to the current weakness in the pricing environment relative to Q1, our focus in Q2 will shift toward maintaining our liquidity position. While we do not guide towards share repurchase activity, we do expect market softness to limit our repurchase activity in Q2. I will now turn the call over to Jason.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone. I mentioned on our last call that our teams continued to achieve new company records in safety and environmental stewardship. Since then, Alpha operations and team members have received public recognition with a number of awards for their work. Our Paramont and Southern West Virginia Mine Rescue teams placed first and second, respectively, in the Southeast Regional Mine Rescue Contest in March. In addition to earning these top spots overall, both teams collected a host of other first aid, technician team, and bench awards at this event, including Alpha Southern West Virginia team claiming first place in the Mine Rescue and First Aid Competition, and our Paramont team coming in second. Each year, the West Virginia Office of Miners' Health, Safety, and Training presents Mountaineer Guardian Awards to operations that exhibit high safety standards.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

For 2023, six Alpha operations were named Mountaineer Guardian recipients: Cedar Grove Number Three Mine, Bandmill Prep Plant, Kingston Prep Plant, Kingston South Surface Mine, Rolling Thunder Mine, and Workman Creek Surface Mine. Additionally, last week, a number of Alpha operations were recognized at the Holmes Mine Safety Awards banquet. In the surface mines category, Black Castle Surface Mine, Kingston North Surface Mine, Kingston South Surface Mine, and Workman Creek Surface Mine were award winners. In the underground mines category, the Marfork Belt Transfer System, Cedar Grove Number Two Mine, Slab Camp Mine, Glen Alum Mine, Kingston Number Two Mine, Horse Creek Eagle Mine, and the Road Fork 52 Mine were recognized. In the plants and loadouts category, Pax Loadout, Marmet Dock, Feds Loadout, Mammoth Plant and River Loadout, Power Mountain Processing Plant, Bandmill Prep Plant, and Marfork Processing Plant all received awards.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Finally, I'm proud to announce a couple of individual achievements. Steve "Arkie" Gyles received the Sharon Cook Award for his outstanding safety service and positive impact on the training and retraining of miners. Arkie is a safety representative at our Mid-West Virginia Surface Region and exemplifies an unwavering commitment to safe production. Brian Keaton, our Senior Vice President of Safety and the author of Safe Production, brought home the Safety Leader of the Year Award, and I'll point out that's two years in a row that an Alpha leader has received this award. I wanna congratulate Arkie, Brian, and all the individuals at the award-winning locations I just mentioned. It's a long list, which is an accurate reflection of how important safety is within this company. Turning to environmental. In West Virginia, Alpha Operations received three environmental awards for 2023.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

The West Virginia DEP recognized Workman Creek for exemplary reclamation of surface mine operations on their Middle Ridge permit, and Kingston for exemplary construction techniques of valley fill on their Kingston North Surface Mine permit. The West Virginia DEP also awarded Elk Run for exemplary reclamation of the Queen and Black Queen Mines. In Virginia, Alpha Operations received five awards for environmental performance. Paramont's Deep Mine 26 received awards for the Met Coal Producers Association for Best AML Dangerous High Wall Elimination, and from the Interstate Mining Compact Commission, they received the National Reclamation Award. The MCPA also awarded Paramont for Best Completed Deep Mine at Deep Mine 25, and Best Active Deep Mine at Deep Mine 41. Lastly, the MCPA awarded Dickinson-Russell for Best Active Fill at our McClure Preparation Plant.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

I wanna congratulate both our environmental and operations teams for their commitment to environmental excellence and all that they do to go beyond compliance. First quarter performance for operations was solid, especially in light of some challenges we've faced, and I'll expand on that shortly. As Andy mentioned before, I could not be prouder that our teams excel in both safety and in productivity measures, like tons per manhour. We can be safe and productive at the same time, which is exactly what we aim to do every day. As we all know, much has changed since the spring of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. Already, such a competitive labor market became even more challenging. Recruiting new talent to work in a crowded, hands-on environment seemed almost impossible at times.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

As a result, inflation caused business costs like supplies and labors to grow to unprecedented highs, while critical supply component availability cratered. Frankly, in some cases, you just couldn't get supplies. As we've discussed on previous calls, Alpha mitigated many of these hurdles by increasing the scale of our rebuild facilities, stocking our warehouses with parts and supplies to weather the storm, and with acquisitions like Maxxim Manufacturing and Maxxim Transportation. Todd spoke to the quarter-over-quarter decrease in Australian index export realizations of approximately $20 a ton, which is representative of the recent downward trend in coking coal price. This trend is also shedding light on the softening of the supply competition in our industry, which has eased in recent quarters. Now we're facing a very different set of circumstances than the ones we navigated successfully after COVID, and in many ways, more challenging.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

The decisions are harder to make, but necessary, with the uncertainty of how long the markets will stay in this current trough. Year to date, 2024, there's been a lot of behind-the-scenes work going on to steer Alpha through these headwinds. With over 1,200 active suppliers, it takes some time to communicate what is happening in the market, as well as Alpha's needs and expectations going forward, but we are well underway with this process. While we value the partnerships formed with suppliers over the years, we have not hesitated to change to viable, lower-cost options as they present themselves. Alpha is also shifting focus on our rebuild and manufacturing facilities. As I mentioned, the availability of certain supplies has improved. We're not always in a situation where we have to make it to have it, and our initiatives are centered around maximizing margin.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Any component we build is at a discount versus sourcing it from a third party, but we're evaluating every planned project with the goal of utilizing our facilities in a way that brings the highest return to Alpha. It is a blessing to have the expertise in-house to seamlessly move from machining things like tracks and chains for continuous miners to fabricating chute work for preparation plants. Lastly, while citing and communicating the current market trend to our employees, Alpha has made the difficult decision to make certain incentives cuts across the organization. These reductions equate to about $35 million per year. But with the seasoned workforce we have, I believe they understand how cyclical the markets are, and although no one likes it, most understand actions like these are necessary to ensure sustainability.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

I'll now turn the call over to Dan for an update on the markets.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everyone. In recent months, metallurgical coal markets have softened due to weakened global demand for steel. Economic pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and global recessionary fears have contributed to the demand dynamics and volatility in metallurgical coal markets. Economic conditions remain uneven across the world, with generally stronger circumstances in the United States than in Europe and in certain parts of Asia, which continue to experience significant geopolitical strife. Metallurgical coal prices fell significantly during the first quarter of 2024. All four indices that Alpha closely monitors saw a drop of 16% or more within the quarter, with the Australian PLV index representing the largest reduction of 25%.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

The Australian Premium Low-Vol index dropped from $324.75 per metric ton on January 2nd, 2024, to $244.50 per metric ton at the end of the first quarter. The U.S. East Coast Low-Vol index decreased from $268 per metric ton at the beginning of January to $225 per metric ton at the end of March. The U.S. East Coast High-Vol A index moved from $281 per metric ton at the start of the year to $225 per metric ton at quarter close, and U.S. East Coast High-Vol B decreased from $252 per metric ton to $200 per metric ton at the end of the quarter.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Since then, the PLV has dropped from its quarter close level to $238 per metric ton on May third. The other three indices have also softened from their end of quarter levels, with U.S. East Coast indices of Low-Vol, High-Vol A, and High-Vol B, measuring $217, $220, and $195 per ton, respectively, as of May third. In the thermal coal market, the API2 index moved from $101.55 per metric ton on January second to $118.25 per metric ton at the end of March. And on May third, the API2 was at $109 per metric ton.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

These met coal index numbers certainly suggest softness, but from Alpha's perspective, we believe they may not reflect the full extent of the market deterioration that has occurred in recent weeks or the significant drop-off in sales activity. Before I close my remarks, I want to briefly discuss the March 26th Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore, which has blocked shipping access to and from Baltimore Harbor. In terms of coal markets and Alpha specifically, we have not used the Baltimore terminals to export our coal in nearly a decade, and thus did not have any coal stored there at the time of the bridge collapse. Instead, the vast majority of our export business travels through Dominion Terminal Associates, in which we hold a 65% ownership interest and comparable throughput capacity rights.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

We also have the ability to use other East Coast terminals for export shipments as necessary or in cases where it's opportunistic for us to do so. Therefore, we do not believe that the bridge's collapse will have direct effects on our business. We, like other producers, may experience some indirect effects, such as greater competition for rail capacity, as companies who have historically exported their products through Baltimore's port seek alternate options. This increased demand for rail transport may also result in rail congestion, longer shipment times, or higher costs. However, our majority ownership in DTA continues to serve us well, and we do not expect any material adverse effects from the Baltimore bridge collapse to Alpha's business. Lastly, speaking of DTA, the team recently completed a planned week-long outage for ship loader maintenance. The maintenance was successful, and the terminal is back to operating at full capacity.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Another scheduled equipment maintenance outage is scheduled to occur in the middle of May. The downtime is expected to be roughly one week and will only impact one of the stacker reclaimer machines at the terminal. This means DTA will be able to continue operating with the other equipment, but overall throughput will be less during the time when this machine is down for maintenance. With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. Andy, first, I want to tip my hat because you're probably the only executive who mentions lots of data in the prepared remarks without also mentioning AI. So, well done there. But in all seriousness, a great, great job on the cost and productivity side in Q1. And I wondered if you could maybe speak to kind of from here on out what are some of the key initiatives? They were partially discussed on the prepared remarks, but maybe you could expand on where you really looking to drive cost savings from here on out and manage what you describe as a weaker market environment. Thank you.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Sure, Lucas. And I hate that you're beating me to the punch on the AI. We'll get to that maybe next earnings call. We'll have a lot of work to do on that. But as far as... I think Jason covered a good portion of that. A lot of this is organic productivity improvements. And I gotta say, it's amazing watching Jason and the team work. The level of detail that they review their operations at, it really is. I mean, it would be something that could be a test case for AI. It requires a much-

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

... bigger brain than I currently contain to monitor all the things that they've got going on. But the sheer volume of metrics down to whether it's equipment uptime or any number of things that are being evaluated real time is pretty incredible. And it's, again, across the number of operations we have and the fact that we're pushing out 17-ish million tons. Small changes have pretty significant snowball effects when they're applied across the entire portfolio. So, you know, I don't really wanna get into any specifics unless there's some things that Jason would like to throw at you.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

But, again, it goes back to capturing all the appropriate data that covers every aspect of operations, and then being able to cut it in a way that you can really derive some wisdom from. I mean, information without wisdom is kind of pointless, and we've got the right team to take this data and make some significant impact out of it.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Oh, that's—this is Jason. I'll follow up a little bit. I mean, Andy, Andy covered the first half of it really well, and I guess the second part, you know, that we're really keying in on now is just with the softening, I guess, of the supply market and, you know, things are easier to get now, you know, relative to maybe even a few quarters ago. You know, things have really turned around there. So we wanna make sure that we're utilizing our rebuilt facilities and our manufacturing facilities to get the absolute best return for Alpha. So, you know, as we're able to pick things up off the shelf, we may see, in some cases, it makes sense to shift the things that we're fabricating and we're making for internal use.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Thank you very much, Andy and Jason. I wanna touch on the market a little bit. From my vantage point, there are kind of a lot of mixed signals. Pricing is seemingly holding in there, but you describe demand as softer, maybe softer than the eye beholds. So I wondered if you could maybe expand on that and where you see the market today, if there are green shoots or if there are maybe more signs of caution ahead. You repeated the outlook on the buyback is maybe more muted here in this environment. How should we think about that?

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Is it reasonable to expect that if you get to $300 million cash balance, for example, that you would resume cash, sorry, resume share purchases with any cash in excess of that? Just wondering how you think about that. Thank you.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Yeah, Lucas, I'll hit the second part of the question first, then I'll let Dan deal with the market. But on the buyback, we've talked about it before. We're kind of slaves to our 13-week cash flow forecast. We're obviously not ambivalent to the method of the capital return. We're all in on the buyback, but we are somewhat agnostic as far as following what the forecast gives us. It's kind of a, there's a cold logic to it, and naturally, job one is to protect the franchise.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

When we're in a market with choppy waters like this, we do want to make sure that we have enough dry powder to withstand any maintained down legs, you know, even if we get below, you know, some previously tested marks of whether we call $225 the bottom or $200 the bottom or even less, who knows? I don't think we're gonna see things like that, but you know, the world changes quicker than we can keep up with. But we've got approximately a month before our trading window closes, and that means that we'll have the opportunity to play with the 10b5 programming up until probably the first week of June before we have to lock it down and leave it.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

And so we've got some time to analyze the market, get more information, see if we're seeing some reversal in trend that would support firing up the buyback in earnest again. But until then, you know, I'm not-- I don't wanna commit one way or the other. We're just- we're gonna play it as required to keep our cash balances at a comfortable place to where, you know, we don't have to stay up and not worrying about where, you know, where everything's gonna come from. But Dan, I'll let you comment on the market piece of that.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Yeah, good morning, Lucas. You know-

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Morning

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

... I guess this market, you know, I would describe is still kind of a balanced market. We, there's no doubt, steel production around the world is down. It's been a long time, I guess, since I've seen all of our markets have kind of depressed steel markets. There's not a lot of good demand in any markets. India, as you know, is a little weaker than they've been in a few years. And I guess a lot of that is obviously due to economic circumstances. Another piece that people don't talk about as much, it affects us, there's a lot of metallurgical coke out there that's been kind of an overhang situation, and I think that's affecting our coking coal shipments, and that's starting to work off.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

So I suppose if you're looking for a green shoot, one of the green shoots might be that we see some coking coal, the coke market pricing starting to go up and maybe not quite the availability of metallurgical coke. You know, and the number of blast furnaces, hot metal production actually is probably starting to increase, too. But it won't happen immediately, we don't think so. You know, we're still seeing lower demand than usual and a certain amount of deferrals or delays, too. You know, that's something else that's a piece of our businesses. You know, a customer will still buy the same tons, but they'll spread out the shipments just a little bit on us, and that has an accumulative effect as well.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

... Thank you, Dan. Are you seeing any movement on the supply side, either good or bad?

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

You know, we hear anecdotally of some mines that are idling. You probably read a couple of them in some of the media. So there seems to be some production coming offline here in the U.S. And I guess another point that weighs certainly on the high-vol coals in the U.S. is the thermal market, as you know, has been really terrible for the last year or so. You know, there was really no summer demand last year, no winter demand, so there's been a real overhang of thermal coal, and a little bit of that thermal coal tends to creep into our high-vol markets here, too.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

That's another area that hasn't really been talked about a lot, but some of that coal actually ends up competing with that coal and kind of holding the prices down, too. And I think some of those thermal operations we've heard anecdotally have been slowing down as well.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Very helpful. Gentlemen, I really appreciate all the color. Thanks so much, and continued best of luck.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks, Lucas.

[Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Our next question is from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please proceed with your question.

[Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company]

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Hey, Nate.

[Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company]

Maybe I'll start on with a kind of a mixed question. I know domestic shipments seasonally light in the first quarter, but it looked like Aussie indexed export tonnage also kind of dipped below your typical one-third or so, let's call it, a met sales level, and then the exports tied to the other pricing mechanisms were about 51% of sales, it looks like. So, Dan, maybe great to get your thoughts behind kind of the mix drivers there, and then maybe how should we kind of think about that mix evolving with those three buckets here in the second quarter?

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Hi, Nate. I guess I'd take exception to light. I wouldn't say it was light shipping schedule. I think we're, you know, it was, you know, 4 million tons is 4 million tons. But, you know, there were certainly some deferrals we saw coming out of Asia, so a lighter, lighter spot demand and a little bit of deferral. So that did skew the Aussie index-based volumes a bit downward. Probably see that in Q2 as well, before it picks up. You know, India still looks real solid for us, but for the reasons that have, you know, been addressed, the elections coming up and things, there's definitely both on term and spot business, a little, little bit less coming out of India.

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

and then just generally, Southeast Asia and China, a little slower than we had hoped as well, for just overall economic reasons.

[Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company]

Okay, got it. And just to clarify, Dan, I was just saying light from an Aussie indexed percentage of sales, not 4 million, 4.1 million tons were light. So, that makes sense. I guess, you know, sticking with the demand thing, you know, Pacific Basin had been kind of outpacing the Atlantic Basin, you know, for a few quarters now. It sounds like, you know, maybe things are a little bit weaker near term in India, as you just mentioned. You know, maybe could I get your thoughts on Europe? I mean, how are things looking there? Maybe when do you think that market could start to improve?

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

I think it's safe to say Europe should have produced more hot metal in 2024 than they did in 2022. That seems to be in the cards. Several of our customers have more blast furnaces operating. As I mentioned, there's an overhang on coke, and with the low coke prices, you know, there's a fair amount of purchased coke going into Europe, that probably won't last. In my experience, that lasts for a while, and then when the cheap coke gets worked off, the cokeries begin producing more of their own. So I tend to think Europe will start to pick up, and that probably applies to South America as well.

[Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company]

Okay, got it. Thanks for that color. And then maybe shifting over to DTA. I know you had some prepared remarks there, specifically some comments, I guess, on the Baltimore port outage related to transportation. But did you guys see any benefits maybe from the Baltimore port outage as far as you know, tonnage necessarily needing to shift away and likely Hampton Roads you know, taking the majority of that?

[Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

I guess the short answer would be no, Nate. You know, we're moving, clicking along with our business as we had before. We got a few phone calls right after the bridge collapsed, but it didn't really translate into any spot business. We know that there's a fair amount of Norfolk Southern-based business that's moved to Lamberts Point that would have shipped out of Baltimore, and I... That probably, we probably got back in the queue a little bit there. So, you know, that's a minor effect, I think, on Alpha. It would be there's just a little more volume going out of Lamberts Point than there was prior. But as far as DTA, I'd have to say we didn't see any effects.

[Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company]

Okay, perfect. Got it. And then, and maybe just one more. And maybe Jason, Jason, to you, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you guys, you know, looking at the current market conditions, did make a difficult decision to make some cuts to some labor incentives. Have you seen much churn or labor attrition due to those? And then, I think you mentioned it's roughly $35 million or so in cost savings. How does that translate on a dollar-per-ton basis, maybe to your full year kind of net segment coal costs?

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Well, you know, on an annual basis, it's nominally $2. You know, to answer your question about attrition, you know, it's kind of early yet. You know, we made those announcements, I think, around the first of April.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

... Actually, mid-March, excuse me. But, you know, from what I've seen since mid-March, you know, attrition rates are generally in line with recent history. So, you know, we haven't seen, definitely not an exodus or anything, but we really haven't seen even much of an uptick yet. You know, and I suspect that's just due to the general state of the market. I mean, we're not the only ones, you know, that's—you know, we all have the same problems, you know, these things go together.

[Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company]

Okay, perfect. Thanks. I'll leave it there, guys. Appreciate the time and info, and best of luck in the second quarter.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks, Nate.

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Thank you very much for taking my follow-up. It's not on AI, it's on the idle mine expenses. Andy, can you comment on what drove the increase? And, is this something we should kind of hold steady over the coming years, or it may kind of revert back lower? Thank you very much.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

I'll let Todd give the detailed answer, but it's... You know, as you have properties that are, we'll call it in between, you know, they could be in full reclamation status, where the cost of the property is going through your ARO balance sheet accounts. Sometimes when you're in between, you've got some timing issues, and you're gonna pick up a little bit of extra idle expense while that property is waiting to go into full actual reclamation status. So Todd, that's... If that's pretty much in the ballpark or where?

[Todd Munsey, CFO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Yeah. No, I think that's, that's the primary driver, Lucas. We did have a little bit of non-recoverable royalties, relative to when we did the budget that we layered in, but Andy hit, hit the major point there. So, and in terms of, you know, looking forward, I think, you know, you can look back and see where that range has been. I mean, we certainly don't anticipate that to, to increase in the future. So, I think, you know, the range that we're in, you know, for the, for the near future at least, is probably where we'll be.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Thank you very much. And Andy, some of your peers have publicly commented on the desire to kind of grow their met coal exposure, especially to the seaborne markets. What’s your take right now on M&A? Are there properties for sale out there? If so, do you have any interest? Not that, I mean, you’re a pure play as is, but curious to get your take on M&A and some of those comments. Thank you.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Well, I think we've kind of hit it a little bit on previous calls. We're always—look, all coal companies are, for the most part, acquisitive. We are what we are today because of transactions we've done in the past, and so we're always looking. There are probably some smaller opportunities, where, as Dan mentioned, we're seeing some small supply coming offline. Some of these folks just are undercapitalized and with no ability to get access to capital markets. There are probably a handful of pretty high quality or at least good quality mines out there that could be attractive, that may be available over the next few months.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

But as far as larger transactions, again, it's just really tough to envision a world where, you know, with everyone's current shareholder bases and capital structures, any significant deals getting done, you know, anytime soon. Everyone really loves the buybacks. There's been a lot of value created. We agree with that. And so it's kinda challenging to look at a world where you're doing the big transformational deals, at least from my vantage point.

[Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities]

Andy, very helpful. I really appreciate it. And again, keep up the good work. Thank you.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

All right. Thanks, Lucas.

[Operator]

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.

[Andy Eidson, CEO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources]

Thanks again, everyone, for your interest in Alpha and for being on the call with us today, and we hope you have a great rest of the week.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you.

Participants

Executives

• Andy Eidson, CEO
• Dan Horn, Chief Commercial Officer
• Emily O'Quinn, SVP, Investor Relations and Communications
• Todd Munsey, CFO

Analysts

• Jason Whitehead, President and COO at Alpha Metallurgical Resources
• Lucas Pipes, Analyst at B. Riley Securities
• Nathan Martin, Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company