Aecon Group Q2 2024 Earnings Report

Aecon Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -C$1.99
• Consensus EPS: -C$2.53
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +C$0.54
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Aecon Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $853.80 million
• Expected Revenue: $1.01 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$160.92 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Aecon Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2024
• Date: 7/24/2024
• Time: N/A
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, July 25, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Aecon Group (TSE:ARE) Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two segments: Construction and Concessions. The Construction segment includes various aspects of the construction of public and private infrastructure projects, mainly in the transportation sector. Its concessions segment is engaged in the development, financing, construction, and operation of infrastructure projects. Aecon generates the majority of its revenue from the Construction segment.

Aecon Group Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Reported Q2 2024 revenue fell 27% to $854 million with an operating loss of $166 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $153 million, largely due to $127 million and $110 million non-recurring charges.
• On an adjusted basis excluding legacy projects and divestitures, Q2 revenue was flat at $975 million year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA was $78 million versus $93 million last year.
• Aecon reached a global settlement on the Coastal GasLink pipeline arbitration with no cash impact, closing one of its most challenging projects.
• A $110 million charge was booked for the three remaining legacy projects, and Aecon warns potential additional financial risks up to $125 million could emerge through the end of 2025.
• The acquisition of Extreme PowerLine expands Aecon’s US utilities footprint, enhancing its position in decarbonization and emergency restoration services.

Presentation

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2024 Aecon Group Inc earnings call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Adam Borgatti. Please go ahead.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for participating in our second quarter results conference call. This is Adam Borgatti speaking, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Joining me are Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO, Jerome Julier, Executive Vice President and CFO, and Alistair MacCallum, Senior Vice President, Finance. Our earnings announcement was released yesterday evening, and we provide presentation on the investing section of our website, which we'll refer to during the call. Following our comments, we'll be glad to take questions from analysts, and we ask that analysts keep to one question and a follow-up before getting back into the queue. As noted on slide two of the presentation, listeners are reminded that the information we're sharing with you today includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on assumptions that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Although Aecon believes the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance these expectations will prove to be correct. With that, I'll hand the call over to Jerome.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. I'll touch briefly on the results, review segment, address Aecon's financial position, and then discuss our legacy projects before turning the call over to Jean-Louis. You'll see that there have been quite a few developments, so we've added additional information to help clarify the underlying results. Detailed recent tables are available on slides 16 and 17. Turning to slide three. On a reported basis, revenue for the three months ended June 2024 of CAD 854 million, was CAD 313 million, or 27% lower compared to the same period in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA of CAD -153 million compared to CAD 17 million last year, an operating loss of CAD 166 million in the quarter, compared to an operating profit of CAD 56 million last year.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Adjusted EBITDA and operating profit in the second quarter were negatively impacted by the previously disclosed CAD 127 million non-recurring charge related to the achievement of a global settlement for the Coastal GasLink pipeline project, and the additional aggregate charge of CAD 110 million related to the three remaining legacy projects. Excluding the impacts from the legacy projects and the divestitures, which we will describe as, as adjusted, revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2024, of CAD 975 million, compared to CAD 978 million in the same period in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 78 million compared to CAD 93 million last year, and operating profit was CAD 46 million compared to CAD 64 million last year.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Diluted loss per share in the quarter of CAD 1.99, compared to diluted earnings per share of CAD 0.38 in the same period last year. Our reported backlog of CAD 6.2 billion at the end of the quarter, compared to backlog of CAD 6.2 billion at the end of December 31, 2023, and CAD 6.9 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2023. New contract awards of CAD 766 million were booked in the quarter, compared to CAD 2 billion in the prior period. Now looking at results by segment, turning to slide four. Construction revenue of CAD 851 million in the second quarter was CAD 288 million, or 25% lower than the same period last year.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Revenue was lower in industrial operations, primarily due to decreased activity on mainline pipeline work, following the achievement of substantial completion on the Coastal GasLink Pipeline project in the third quarter of 2023, which offset a higher volume of wastewater treatment facilities work. Revenue was lower in the urban transportation solutions from a lower volume of LRT work in Ontario as a result of the sale of Aecon Transportation East in the second quarter of 2023, and from a lower volume of major project work following completion of a large hydroelectric project in 2023. Partially offsetting these decreases was higher revenue in nuclear operations, driven by an increased volume of refurbishment work and in utility operations from a higher volume of electrical transmission and battery energy storage system work, partially offset by lower volumes in telecommunications and gas distribution.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

On an as-adjusted basis, construction revenue was CAD 973 million, flat to last year. New contract awards of CAD 600 million or CAD 763 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to CAD 2 billion in the same period last year. New awards in the second quarter of 2023 were bolstered by significant adjustments in nuclear operations. Backlog at the end of the second quarter of CAD 6.1 billion, compared to CAD 6.8 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2023, which included roughly CAD 200 million of pipeline-related backlog at the time. Turning now to slide five. Adjusted EBITDA of CAD -173 million, compared to CAD -4 million last year.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

As previously noted, the decrease was largely driven by negative gross profit on the four legacy projects of CAD 237 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to negative gross profit of CAD 81 million on these projects in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter on an as-adjusted basis was CAD 64 million compared to CAD 78 million last year, with the variance being driven by lower gross profit in urban transportation solutions from rail electrification work, increases in corporate costs, and partially offset by improving performance in our nuclear operations. Turning now to slide six. Revenue for the second quarter was CAD 2 million, compared to CAD 27 million in the same period last year.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

The decrease in revenue was largely driven by the sale of a 49.9% interest in Skyport, the Bermuda Airport concessionaire, and commencement of the equity method of accounting for Aecon's retained 50.1% interest in Skyport. Adjusted EBITDA in the concession segment of CAD 30 million, compared to CAD 28 million last year. Operating profit related to the Skyport asset was higher in the second quarter, driven by one-time recoveries of CAD 5.9 million in 2024, and an incremental gain on sale of CAD 5.9 million reported in 2024 related to additional proceeds earned in the 2023 partial sale of Skyport. On an as-adjusted basis, operating profit in the construction segment in the second quarter was CAD 5 million, compared to CAD 9 million last year, reflecting lower development fees and higher costs associated with pursuits on energy transition endeavors.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

On slide seven, we've brought together the information to exclude the impact of the legacy projects and divestitures to provide insight into the underlying performance of the business. Adjusted revenue for the trailing 12-month period ended June 30, 2024, was CAD 3.8 billion, compared to CAD 3.7 billion for the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA, including the previously noted adjustments, was CAD 344 million in the trailing 12-month period, compared to CAD 343 million in the same period last year. For the construction segment, on an adjusted basis, the EBITDA was CAD 305 million for the trailing 12-month period, representing an 8% margin. Turning to slide eight. At the end of the second quarter, Aecon held cash and cash equivalents of CAD 131 million, excluding cash and joint operations.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

In addition, at June 30, 2024, Aecon had committed revolving credit facilities of CAD 850 million, of which CAD 98 million was drawn and CAD 4 million was utilized for letters of credit. Netting the cash position against our drawn revolver results in a net cash position of CAD 33 million at the end of the quarter, prior to the inclusion of other debt items noted below. Aecon has no debt or working capital credits, maturities, until 2027, except equipment loans and leases in the normal course. In addition, Aecon's board of directors has authorized a Normal Course Issuer Bid, or NCIB, to purchase for cancellation up to 5% of the issued and outstanding common shares, or approximately 3.1 million common shares of Aecon, subject to the approval of the TSX.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Aecon intends to file a notice of intention with the TSX in this regard, and if accepted, NCIB shortly thereafter. Turning to slide nine, I'll now provide an update on our legacy projects. On June 28, SA Energy Group, in which Aecon is a 50% general partner, and Coastal GasLink Pipeline LP, reached an amicable and mutually agreeable global settlement to resolve their dispute fully and finally over the construction of Sections 3 and 4 of the Coastal GasLink pipeline project in BC. The settlement agreement is not an admission of liability by either party, and the parties have mutually released their respective claims in the arbitration, thereby avoiding the expense, burden, and uncertainty associated with the arbitration. The terms of the settlement agreement are expected to result in no cash impacts to Aecon.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

As noted previously, from an accounting perspective, Aecon recognized a non-recurring charge of CAD 127 million in the second quarter of 2024 related to the settlements. The Coastal GasLink settlement allows Aecon to close the chapter on one of the most technically and financially challenging projects in its history, and we want to thank our team for delivering the project safely and with incredible resiliency through to completion. Progress continues on the two LRT projects in Ontario, including signaling and train control systems testing and advances in driver training for the operator. Physical work is nearly complete, with most station and structural occupancy permits received. Full vehicle testing is also ongoing across the projects. However, forecasted substantial completion dates have been delayed due to setbacks and meeting necessary testing, commissioning, and additional training and coordination requirements with the operator.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

As seen on the cover of the presentation, the deck on the Gordie Howe International Bridge between Windsor and Detroit is now connected. This is a significant accomplishment, creating the longest cable-stayed bridge span in North America. Work is progressing on the main bridge and on the Michigan interchange, as well as on the two international port of entry facilities and their core systems. However, additional costs have been incurred related to the bridge and Michigan interchange structures and finishes, as well as other areas such as the finishes and the mechanical and electrical systems of the port of entry facilities. As a result of these impacts, Aecon recognized an aggregate charge of CAD 110 million in the quarter from the remaining three legacy projects, reflecting our current estimates on the cost of completion for these remaining projects.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Aecon believes our estimates to be accurate as of today, and the majority of the risks for the remaining three legacy projects are largely behind us. However, additional risks exist if assumptions, estimates, and circumstances change until the projects are substantially complete. To that end, we are providing a risk analysis that reflects negative changes to our assumptions, which could potentially impact our cost to complete on these projects. Based on the information currently available, Aecon believes the potential for future additional financial risks to Aecon, if any, through to completion of the remaining three legacy projects, should not exceed CAD 125 million to the end of 2025. We remain focused on driving the remaining legacy projects to completion while pursuing fair and reasonable settlement agreements with the respective clients in each case.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Of the remaining three projects, one is currently expected to be substantially complete by the end of 2024, another in early 2025, and the final project by the end of the third quarter of 2025. At June 30, 2024, the remaining backlog to be worked off on the legacy projects was CAD 269 million, compared to backlog of CAD 420 million at December 31, 2023, and CAD 699 million at June 30, 2023. At this point, I'll turn the call over to Jean-Louis to address our business performance and outlook.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Thank you, Jerome. Turning to slide 10, Aecon's goal is to build a resilient company through a balanced and diversified work portfolio, while enhancing critical execution capabilities and project selection to play to our strengths. We continue to leverage our self-performed capabilities and One Aecon approach to maximize value for clients through improved cost, certainty, and schedule, while offering a broad range of services from development, engineering, investment, and construction to longer-term operations and maintenance to cover the full infrastructure value chain.... While we pursue and deliver the majority of our work in established markets, we are embracing new opportunities to grow in areas linked to decarbonization and the energy transition, and in U.S. and international markets. Our acquisition of Xtreme Powerline, which we will discuss further, aligns with this approach.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

These opportunities are intended over the long term to diversify Aecon's geographic presence, provide further growth opportunities, and deliver more consistent earnings through economic cycles. Turning to slide 11, demand for Aecon services across Canada continues to be strong. With backlog of CAD 6.2 billion at June 30, 2024, recurring revenue programs continuing to see robust demand and a strong bid pipeline, Aecon believes it is positioned to achieve further revenue growth over the next few years, and is focused on achieving improved profitability and margin predictability. We are pursuing a balanced portfolio of work delivered through both fixed and non-fixed price contracting models, with the goal of reducing fixed price work to balance risk with acceptable return. Trailing 12 months recurring revenue of CAD 1.1 billion was comparable to the prior period, and up 38% versus two years ago.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Contribution from the GO Expansion On-Corridor Works and Scarborough Subway Extension projects during the respective development phases increased in the quarter, which offset a lower volume of gas distribution and telecommunications works in utilities operations and impact from the sale of ATE last year. Adjusting for the impact of the sale of ATE and the 49.9% interest in Skyport, recurring revenue increased 9% on a like-for-like basis over the trailing period last year. Turning now to slide 12. Development phase work is underway in five consortiums, in which Aecon is a participant, to deliver the GO Expansion On-Corridor Works project, the Scarborough Subway Extension project, the Darlington New Nuclear Project, the Contrecœur Terminal Expansion project, and the U.S. Virgin Islands Airport Redevelopment project.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

These projects are being delivered using collaborative, progressive design-build models, and each project is expected to move into the construction phase in 2025. The GO Expansion project also includes an operations and maintenance component over a 23-year term, commencing January 1, 2025. As a reminder, none of the anticipated work from these five progressive design-build projects is yet reflected in backlog, but could, in aggregate, increase our backlog in 2025 to approximately double the level of our current backlog. Turning to slide 13. With strong demand, growing recurring revenue programs, and diverse backlog in hand, Aecon is focused on achieving solid execution on its projects and selectively adding to backlog through a disciplined bidding approach that supports long-term margin improvement in the construction segment.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

In the concession segment, there are a number of opportunities to add to the existing portfolio of Canadian and international concessions in the next 12-24 months, including projects with private sector clients that support a collective focus on sustainability and the transition to a net zero economy, as well as private sector development expertise and investment to support aging infrastructure, mobility, connectivity, and population growth. Revenue in 2024 will be impacted by the three strategic transactions completed in 2023, the substantial completion of several large projects in 2023, the four legacy projects, and the five major projects currently in the development phase by consortiums in which Aecon is a participant being delivered using the Progressive Design-Build or Alliance models, which are expected to move into the construction phase in 2025.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

The completion and satisfactory resolution of claims on the remaining three legacy projects remains a critical focus, while the remainder of the business continues to perform as expected, supported by the strong level of backlog and the strong demand environment for Aecon services, including recurring revenue programs. Finally, turning to slide 14. On July 2, Aecon Utilities Group acquired a majority interest in Xtreme Powerline Construction, an electrical distribution utility contractor headquartered in Michigan, for a base purchase price of approximately $73 million, with the potential for additional contingent profits. Xtreme is a full service power line constructor with approximately 300 employees, specializing in overhead distribution line repair, maintenance, expansion, and emergency restoration services throughout the Eastern United States for over 20 utility clients. The acquisition of Xtreme creates opportunities to harness our collective utility infrastructure expertise and drive continued growth in priority markets.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Xtreme's experienced team and strong client relationships are aligned with our business, and we, along with our strategic partner, Oaktree, are pleased to welcome the Xtreme team to help advance our continued growth across North America with a focus on the energy transition. As a final comment, I would like to thank our team members for their enduring efforts and ongoing focus on safety and consistent execution. I would like to call specific attention to our Kingstown Port team in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, while leading a fundraising effort to support the recovery from Hurricane Beryl. Thank you. We will now turn the call over to analysts for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. We'll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC. Your line is open.

[Jacob Bout, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at CIBC]

Good morning. My first question is on, is on margins. Seemed a bit soft in the, the core construction group. Maybe just talk through, you know, what happened in the quarter. And I know last quarter, you know, I think on a, on a TTM basis, they were around 9.5%. Is that what you would consider normal course on an annualized basis?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Hey, Jacob, it's Jerome here. Good, good question. So from a margin perspective, in the quarter, on the construction side of the business, on an as-adjusted basis, we delivered 6.6%. I think we need to remind ourselves versus last year, where we delivered 8%, we had some benefits last year with regards to certain projects on the UTS division and just general strong, you know, revenue and productivity. Q2's not like a high production quarter for us, right? We generally tend to back-end weight the production through the Q3 and Q4 period. So I'd say the, you know, overall quarter, nothing exceptional. There's certainly room for ongoing, you know, focus and improvement on the margin profile and execution.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

You know, with regards to the overall business, you know, what I just noted, again, just focusing on the construction side, you know, margin profile on an LTM basis was 8%. You know, we view that as a strong performance, you know, reflecting overall, you know, consistent execution from the team. It's also really, you know, given the work programs that we're engaged with, one quarter in isolation doesn't really fully tell the story. I think the right way to look at it is over time, and, you know, I think that the 8% delivery, is there room for improvement on that? Potentially, for sure, it's a focus for the team. But that's still a pretty productive level for a construction business.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

If we take it at the aggregate, you know, consolidated basis, you know, 9% margin, there is a, there is a benefit that we accrue there on the, the accounting protocols for the concessions business, where revenue's effectively been derecognized on the Bermuda asset. And so we're effectively just picking up, you know, an EBITDA contribution. And so from, from that perspective, you know, the, the 9.5% that was quarter last year on an as adjusted basis would be a, a very strong result. But if, again, look on a, on an LTM basis, I think what we produced was, was a pretty good indicator.

[Jacob Bout, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at CIBC]

Okay. Maybe just to follow up there, you know, as you move to a more collaborative project model, maybe just talk through, you know, some of the embedded margins in those six projects that you've got coming up?

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yes, I will take this one, Jacob. What is important and, and very interesting for us in the progressive design-build model, is the predictability of the results and, and the fact that we co-develop the project with our client during the first 18 or 24 months. This is extremely important, so we don't give special guidance on special project, but this model is, is, is, I would say, much more favorable, to contractors, and evidently will increase our, our margin, predictability. This being said, to come back to the first part of your, of your question, I mean, we are, of course, tracking the performance of our peers and, and, and competitors. I mean, 8% EBITDA on construction activity for the last 12 trailing months, if we get out the, the legacy project impact, it's quite a good performance.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

We are rather optimistic for the future, of course.

[Jacob Bout, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at CIBC]

Thank you.

[Operator]

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Yuri Lynk with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

[Yuri Lynk, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my question.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Good morning, Yuri.

[Yuri Lynk, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Good morning. So, Q1 was a clean quarter. Eight weeks later, you take the CAD 110 million charge on the three LSTKs. So something changed quickly there with relation to cost. So, how are you now comfortable putting out the CAD 125 million, looking out over 18 months? Just, you know, you know, what's the difference between that number and the CAD 110 million that was booked, and what's changed now to allow you to feel confident putting a number like that out there?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yeah. Hey, Yuri, it's, it's Jerome speaking. Thanks for the question. So with, with regards to our, our current estimates on the cost of completion, which is the CAD 110 million impact that we booked in the quarter, that reflects, you know, management's best estimate to completion of the projects as of today. So when we, when we talk about, you know, these projects and, and reforecast in general, there, there tends to be, in some instances, step function changes when schedule slippages are identified, and cemented. And that was certainly the case, that resulted in, in the 110. I would note that, you know, the 110 is based on the cost to complete estimates that we have.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

We're confident in those estimates, and those reflect the scheduling that we had noted, which is end of 2024, early 2025, and Q3 2025. So what's candidly changed between, you know, now and where this potential risk figure that we've provided, you know, if any, through the completion is effectively centered around a couple things. And what gives us the confidence is, number one, the mutually agreed and kind of, you know, final and full settlement of the CGL arbitration and dispute provides us with additional confidence by taking out one of the larger risk elements from the overall legacy project cohort. And then number two, the completion on the projects is now much more in sight than it's been at any period prior.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

What we've done is we've analyzed a variety of factors, and what could lead to the 125 would be additional cost creep on the construction and development, and then additional with schedule. That being said, given the status that we have on these projects today, you know, we remain confident the 110 is appropriate. That being said, we just wanted to provide stakeholders with a bit of a perspective around what financial risks could look like if size, schedule, cost, et cetera, started creeping to the right, and where we see appropriate risk bounds in association with that.

[Yuri Lynk, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Okay. And just as a follow-up, in terms of potential timing of realizing some of that 125, I mean, I would assume Q3 is gonna be a clean quarter. But fair to say, it would be appropriate to kind of think about maybe a quarter or a third of that getting recognized in the fourth quarter? Like, how do we think about the timing and the likelihood?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yeah, good question, Yuri. So without confirming or denying any of your assumptions, the way that we would see the potential financial, additional financial risks materialize, if any, would likely manifest themselves in association with any potential schedule slippage on the delivery of the projects and, you know, attainment of substantial completion. And to that end, as we've noted, end of 2024, early 2025 is likely the area where we'll have better information in association with this. And so if we're thinking about, you know, where these costs could materialize, and these are just estimates at this point, so we're not gonna give ourselves any, you know, finality on this, because these are potential impacts, if any.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

You know, this idea of, you know, that, you know, a portion manifesting itself in the current fiscal year, is possible, and that, you know, the weighting that you noted is not a terrible way to think about it, because it associates, you know, pretty much with the 2024, 2025, 2025, and probably not a bad way to think about it.

[Yuri Lynk, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Canaccord Genuity]

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yeah. Thanks, Yuri.

[Operator]

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Murray with ATB Capital Markets. Your line is open.

[Chris Murray, Managing Director at ATB Capital Markets]

Yeah, thanks, guys. Just maybe turning back a little bit, looking at the concessions business for a second. If we could start back at the CAD 5.9 million of one-time recoveries, you're kind of running, call it, you know, maybe CAD ±20 million in EBITDA. You know, just trying to think about how we should be thinking about the concessions business as a contribution on a go-forward basis. Are you—and I guess part of this is, you know, how are you seeing the stability of the airport right now? And is there anything else to be thinking about in terms of some of the other contracts that are underway changing that earnings profile over the next, call it, 18-24 months?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Good, good question. So I'll break it down in a couple of ways. So with regards to the operating profit of the concessions business, in the quarter, we delivered CAD 5 million versus roughly CAD 9 million in the same quarter last year. Again, I've switched you from EBITDA to operating profit on an as-adjusted basis, Chris. The main difference there is largely related to reduction in development fees and increased pursuit costs. When projects are in active construction, there's a development fee or a, you know, a fee that's collected by the concessions group, and that can be, you know, additive to their earnings profile.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

And then with regards to the Bermuda Airport, maybe I'll turn it over to Adam just to provide a little bit of context on, you know, the operating factors there.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Sure. Thanks, Jerome. So Bermuda continues to recover from its pre-pandemic traffic levels. Slowly, we're up to about the low 80% in terms of passenger volume that was experienced prior to COVID-19 impacts. But the key factor there is obviously the ability to have your revenues and associated costs for airlines and passengers, et cetera, increase at a level that exceeds your passenger volume. So from a financial perspective, the airport is operating well and in line with where we were before this, despite lower passenger.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

That volume to kind of stay around this level or a small increase over time as hotel and other accommodation capacity increases in the market. To Jerome's point, you know, we've got where concessions is now as these major projects come off, and you know, the concessionaire moves into its O&M phases for the various LRTs, et cetera, you'll see, you know, some of that concessions EBITDA reduced as the... no longer carrying the, but then there are opportunities moving forward as well as things do come on from construction into operations, such as the Oneida Battery Storage Project, and is successful moving forward on the USVI opportunity. So a few puts and takes there in terms of timing, but that's basically the dynamics that's driving concessions now.

[Chris Murray, Managing Director at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. I'll leave it there. But maybe turning back to the 125. So I guess under the accounting rules, you book the 110 because that's your kind of agreed to booked up number. But thinking about the 125, I mean, outside of some schedule slippage, and probably some recognition of that schedule slippage as you actually get closer to those target completion dates, is there anything else? I guess what I'm trying to figure out is how to risk that 125 materializing and how you're thinking about either certain events, material costs, labor, or anything like that that could be driving kind of that 125 number.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yeah, I mean, Chris, that's a good question. We're gonna be limited in the amount of insight and perspective that we can really drill into for a variety of reasons. What I'll say is the 125 was developed through, you know, a very detailed, you know, analysis of multiple variables, outcomes across, you know, the full spectrum of activities involved with these projects, whether it's schedule, cost, claims, you know, systems integration, training, et cetera, right?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

So I'd say the complexity that underlies that figure is quite deep, and so it's, you know, we're not gonna be able to point to any specific particular factor, and we're gonna be pretty much sticking to the fact that, you know, there's the potential for additional financial risks, if any, you know, being up to, you know, 125. So that's, you know, oh, you know, let's, here's the kind of standard deviation associated with that. We're just gonna give the one to two point estimate.

[Chris Murray, Managing Director at ATB Capital Markets]

Okay. So maybe a different way to frame it. So, like, the 125 really represents the worst case scenario in your best estimation?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

It represents the potential for future additional risks to Aecon, through the completion of the remaining, you know, construction, right? As of today, based on what we know and the information we have available to us, right? Again, you know, just to reinforce the point, where we stand today is 110, and that's it. And then if those assumptions change based on what we see today, that's the additional future additional risk that could come into us.

[Chris Murray, Managing Director at ATB Capital Markets]

All right. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Thanks, Chris.

[Operator]

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Capital Markets. Your line is open.

[Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Yes, thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Just on the nuclear side, could you maybe provide more color about the bidding opportunities right now and kind of the opportunity to scale up the work outside Canada?

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yes, Benoit, thank you for the question. Aecon is ideally positioned for the future of nuclear. On one side, we have all the refurbishment programs, I mean, in Ontario. The execution goes quite well. We are finalizing the two last reactor in Darlington. We have now acquired most of the units at Bruce; only the three last steam generator are still in the discussion, but we have preferred arrangements on this one. Pickering now in terms of major rehabilitation is under negotiation with OPG for the four next units. It fits perfectly with the end of Darlington in terms of load of work for our people and our means of production. So this rehabilitation is quite strong.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

SMR, I mean, the, in Darlington, the development phase is perfectly on track. We are all working hard in our alliance with GE Hitachi and AtkinsRéalis. I remind you that there is room here not only for one, but for three additional. As I've told you a few months ago, SMR is very interesting for us because it is a door to a lot of potential activities within Canada, in other province or outside Canada. I mean, you have probably noticed that we signed a cooperation agreement in Poland a few weeks ago. And that's just the beginning, and we are very happy about it. In addition to this, we are ramping up in United States. You remember that in 2018, we made the acquisition of a small, specialized nuclear welding company called Wachs.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

That's ramping up quite well, I mean, we are now working on some refurbishment programs, for example, for Dominion, a job of around $200 million. But also on Savannah River, I mean, for the federal authorities. All this goes into the right direction. We have opened an office in Charlotte a few months ago. So we are ideally positioned, extremely happy on the way we are learning. We are capitalizing on our experience and the position that we have in this nuclear field.

[Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

That, that's great color. And when we look, Jerome, at the free cash flow generation and working cap, there, there's been a great reversal in Q2. Could you provide maybe some granularity or greater detail about how we should expect the working cap and free cash flow to play out in the back half and for the full year?

[Alistair MacCallum, SVP of Finance at Aecon Group Inc]

Hey, Benoit, it's Alistair. So, as you know, typically, our business ramps up in terms of revenue in Q3 and Q4. So, from a working cap perspective, we'd expect to build in Q3 as we typically have, and then Q4 tends to have a strong release of working capital. So, we'd expect that trend to continue. And I think, as you said, we've had a good release so far of working capital. We expect to have positive capital at the end of the year. As you know, our working capital can be lumpy, depending on payments and you know, I think. But strong expectation that, you know, we'll be positive from a working capital perspective at the end of the year.

[Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay, thank you.

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Benoit, it's Jerome, Jerome on it. Also, just from a cash flow perspective, just on, we made the acquisition of Powerline, so that needs to be factored in. And then as well, the NCIB, you know, needs to be factored in as well.

[Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay, that's great. And with respect to, to the acquisition of Xtreme Powerline-

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Mm-hmm.

[Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

How should we be thinking about the integration and whether your willingness to do more? Are you going to take a pause and digest, or still looking to beef up your presence in the utility segment?

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Okay. I will check on this one, Benoit. We're extremely happy with the acquisition of Xtreme. It's perfectly within the targets. It's perfectly within our core competency. It's in Michigan, which means quite close from us. It's a very professional company with more than 300 employees. In United States, the fact to have your own employees professionally trained and loyal to the company is extremely important. You remember what I said last time, I mean, our strategy is to try to make acquisition, and in the mid-single digit, in terms of multiplier for the EBITDA, and integrate them within our Aecon Utilities Group, which have been valued between 9x and 10x multiplier. This is what we have been doing. It's a very strong company. So of course, we have to integrate this company within Aecon.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

We are rather optimistic. I mean, we had a very solid due diligence. We know that the DNA is the same. We know that the teams can work together. What is important are the very strong relation with DTE, but also the agility of this company to work in addition to their core to their core business on all the emergency response happening within the United States. And this is quite important. I mean, it's part of the business that is more and more important. I mean, you probably noticed in our introduction that we spoke about St. Vincent and the hurricane, I mean, Beryl, in Caribbean. So, it's not usual to have a Category Five hurricane in June in Caribbean, but we were ready for this.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Impacts have been minor. Just a few weeks, less than CAD 2 million of losses, no fatalities, no wounded people within our team. I mean, it's... There will be quite a large trend of investment in all those emergency response due to climate change. Xtreme is very well positioned for this. So we are happy about it. We're going to integrate it, and we will progress forward. We are rather ambitious, although prudent, on our growth in United States and international.

[Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

That's great color. Thank you, Jean-Louis.

[Operator]

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ian Gillies with Stifel. Your line is open.

[Ian Gillies, Managing Director at Stifel]

Morning, everyone.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Morning.

[Ian Gillies, Managing Director at Stifel]

You've quantified the risk for the remaining three projects, obviously, through the end of 2025. Could you maybe qualitatively address what sort of risks or opportunities you may see on those projects for recovery, maybe in 2026, just as you get post-project completion, there's true ups, et cetera?

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

Yes, I can speak a little about this, and maybe, Jerome, if you want to add something. I mean, those are extremely complex project, with a lot of interfaces, with a lot of stakeholders, and, and we consider, I mean, at least on the two LRTs, that there have been major modification in the condition of executions of our contract due to this interference. So, we will have a strong focus on recovering, what we think is fair due to this, due to the consequences of, of those interfaces. And, and I would say we will, we'll do it with, with a lot of strength, because we, we just consider that this is what has to be done in line with, the project agreement that we have been signing quite a number of years ago.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

It means that we will fight up to the end so that our rights are recognized, and that we just receive fair and honorable compensation for the issue that we have been facing. This is very important. So, first of all, substantial completion, very important. I mean, as soon as possible, getting substantially completed on this job and going to the next phase, which is maintenance, under our contract. But also recovering, with a lot of energy, any amounts of money that we are convinced are due to our companies. Jerome, do you want to add something?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

I think it was well articulated, Jean-Louis. You know, and just to your point, these would be circumstances that could take a notable amount of time to resolve and move through the various resolution methods. And so I think from our perspective, qualitatively, Jean-Louis said it well, and just from a timing standpoint, it's probably... We're not forecasting any pluses or minuses, just to the extent that it's so far out at this point. But you know, it's obviously a key focus for the team.

[Ian Gillies, Managing Director at Stifel]

Understood. As you look across your customers today and ongoing bid activity, are there any notable pockets of weakness that you're seeing on the private capital side? There's some stuff that seems to be coming up in the U.S., but in Canada, is there any cause for concern at this point?

[Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO at Aecon Group Inc]

Look, one of the benefits of the diversified business profile is it allows us, you know, when there's a little bit of chop in the water, we can still navigate it pretty readily. One area that we did call out was just with regards to the utilities business. We have noticed maybe a little bit less robust dynamic in association with telecommunications and natural gas distribution. I think that's likely temporal, like it's something that will pass, but it's something that we know the work will need to get done, but we just view it as probably just moving a little bit to the right. I don't know, Jean-Louis, if there's any other areas that you see, you know, strengths or weaknesses on the Canadian side.

[Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO at Aecon Group Inc]

No. What we can see is that probably United States is more in advance than Canada on everything related with energy transition, all the subsidizing program and everything to make it happen quickly. Especially, I mean, this is why Xtreme was such an important acquisition. I mean, through the Bipartisan Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, I mean, there's more than $65 billion already dedicated and ready to go, just to modernize the nation in electrical infrastructure. So we just think that United States is in advance. But Canada, I mean, is not in a standstill, so we are, we're also rather optimistic on this.

[Ian Gillies, Managing Director at Stifel]

Perfect. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Sean Jack with Raymond James. Your line is open. Your line is open.

[Sean Jack, Associate Analyst Equity Research at Raymond James Ltd.]

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick question on Xtreme. Wondering if you could comment on how competitive that auction process was, and also wondering if you're seeing, you know, the dynamics for auction processes getting a bit easier or harder since you began looking?

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Thanks, Sean. Yeah, no, great question. This was a unique one for us. We actually really liked the firm, as did Oaktree in its review of opportunities prior to our transaction in the fall of last year. So it was actually a nice one for us when we came together to more. We're really trying to avoid big auctions, big headline numbers, those that would compete with lots of financial capital for platform investments. It's not what we need, it's not what we and our partner feel is the right approach for this business.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

And so we're gonna be very prudent and judicious with our capital, seek out, as Jean-Louis described, fair valuation companies, ones that will integrate well culturally with a safety-focused culture, and what we describe as our land and expand strategy, which is, find great businesses that do, you know, a few things very well for our great clients, and then apply what we can also bring, which is additional capabilities, more work into Aecon, and the ability to take on larger and more complex projects to our balance sheet and credit capacity. So, you know, very successful outcome.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

We had lots of time and the right approach on due diligence for this one, and intend to do the same going forward, on a very measured approach, and lots more in the funnel right now that we think is in our wheelhouse.

[Sean Jack, Associate Analyst Equity Research at Raymond James Ltd.]

Okay, perfect. And last one, just for Xtreme specifically, wondering if there's any puts and takes on seasonality that you guys would want to call out, or does it pretty well match Aecon's construction business?

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Yeah, it's got similar levels to our seasonality. Again, lots of its work is in the north of the U.S., adjacent to our border, and so you'd have the same weather impacts on outdoor work that we would have in our utilities. So aside from, as Jean-Louis described, storm response and emergency services that would move elsewhere throughout the U.S., potentially expanding off-peak times, it mostly follows our seasonal pattern.

[Sean Jack, Associate Analyst Equity Research at Raymond James Ltd.]

Okay, perfect. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Thanks, Sean.

[Operator]

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Adam for any closing remarks.

[Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations at Aecon Group Inc]

Great. Thanks, Kevin, and thanks, everyone, for your participation today. As always, feel free to reach out to us with further questions and comments. We welcome the feedback and wish you a good rest of the day, and we'll speak with you on the next call.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

Participants

Executives

• Adam Borgatti, SVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations
• Alistair MacCallum, SVP of Finance
• Jean-Louis Servranckx, CEO
• Jerome Julier, EVP and CFO

Analysts

• Benoit Poirier, VP and Industrial Products Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets
• Chris Murray, Managing Director at ATB Capital Markets
• Ian Gillies, Managing Director at Stifel
• Jacob Bout, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at CIBC
• Sean Jack, Associate Analyst Equity Research at Raymond James Ltd.
• Yuri Lynk, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Canaccord Genuity