Williams-Sonoma Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 22, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • In Q2, Williams Sonoma reported a same-store sales decline of 3.3% and lowered its full-year revenue outlook to down 4% to down 1.5% amid a challenging home furnishings market.
  • The company achieved a 16.2% operating margin and earnings per share of $1.74, enabling it to raise its full-year operating margin guidance to 17.4%–17.8% despite top-line pressure.
  • A focus on full-price selling, reduced promotional activity and supply-chain efficiencies drove a 550-basis-point improvement in gross margin and a 380-basis-point gain in merchandise margins year-over-year.
  • Strategic investments in proprietary e-commerce technology, in-house design innovation and high-profile collaborations across brands such as Road and Rolla Rabbit are gaining traction and driving market share gains.
  • Williams Sonoma reiterated its long-term targets of mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth and mid- to high-teens operating margins, supported by its omni-channel platform, diversified portfolio and strong balance sheet.
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Earnings Conference Call
Williams-Sonoma Q2 2024
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Welcome to the Williams-Sonoma, Inc. Q2 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the conclusion of the prepared remarks. I would now like to turn the call over to Jeremy Brooks, Chief Accounting Officer and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Brooks
Jeremy Brooks
Chief Accounting Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Good morning, and thank you for joining our Q2 earnings call. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that during this call, we will make forward-looking statements with respect to future events and financial performance, including our revised guidance for FY twenty-four and our long-term outlook. We believe these statements reflect our best estimates. However, we cannot make any assurances these statements will materialize, and actual results may differ significantly from our expectations. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after today's call. Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should not be considered replacements for and should be read together with our GAAP results.

Jeremy Brooks
Jeremy Brooks
Chief Accounting Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

A detailed reconciliation of Non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure appears in Exhibit One to the press release we issued earlier this morning. This call should also be considered in conjunction with our filings with the SEC. Finally, a replay of this call will be available on our investor relations website. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Laura Alber, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thank you, Jeremy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. Before we review our Q2 results, I want to take a minute to recognize our team for their continued contributions. We recently held our General Managers Conference in Arizona. It was our first leadership conference since the pandemic, and all of us have been inspired by the level of passion, dedication, and talent of our store management and field teams. Today, we are reporting strong results for the Q2 of 2024, which were driven by our Q2 improved top-line trends, market share gains, and continued delivery on our commitment to profitability. In Q2, our comp came in at negative 3.3%, and we exceeded profitability estimates with an operating margin of 16.2% and earnings per share of $1.74, reflecting the two-for-one stock split we completed in July.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We are pleased with our strong operating results and the operational improvements that produce these results. We continue to demonstrate the strength of our margin profile, even in a difficult market. There is no doubt that the home furnishings market is challenged due to the uncertainty in the economy, coupled with slow housing. This leads us to believe that we may not see the back-half acceleration that we expected, despite all the hard work we've done to improve our product offer and our customer experience. Therefore, we believe it is prudent to reduce our top-line outlook for the balance of the year while continuing to deliver on our commitment to profitability, and in fact, we are raising our bottom-line guidance.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We are now expecting full-year revenues to come in at a range of down 4% to down 1.5%, but we are raising our guidance on operating margin to be in the range of 17.4% to 17.8%. Now let me review progress on our three key priorities that we outlined with you back in March. First, returning to growth, second, elevating our world-class customer service, and third, driving margin. I'll start with an update on returning to growth. Our improved top-line trend outperformed the industry decline in the Q2, and we maintained our commitment to not offering site-wide promotions. A key element of our return to growth strategy is our focus on innovation in our product lines across brands, including substantially more newness across our assortments.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Our unique in-house design capabilities and vertically integrated sourcing organization allows us to offer this high-quality design innovation at compelling price points. The next key component of our return to growth strategy is our commitment to improving our channel experiences. Our investment in our proprietary e-commerce technology serves as a competitive advantage versus our peers. From product discovery and selection to personalization, content, customer care, and the final mile, our team is constantly thinking about how to elevate and evolve our best-in-class e-commerce experience. In the quarter, we've been focused on expanding our online content and providing more inspiration in the shop path to drive conversion. And of course, we cannot forget our best-in-class retail business. We have continued to improve our in-store experience with inspirational new products, improved in-stock inventory levels, and next-level design services, including our new design tool that allows for 3D rendering.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

As our teams reminded us at our General Managers Conference this year, we really do have the best team in retail, and our retail optimization efforts continue transforming our store fleet to be positioned in the most profitable, inspiring, and strategic locations. Now, let's talk through progress on our second and third key priorities, which go hand in hand. We continue to make progress, improving our world-class customer service and driving margin, contributing significantly to the operating margin we reported today. One of the foundational principles upon which this company is built is that the customer is at the center of everything we do, and their satisfaction is key to our operating performance. Without our customers, truly nothing else matters, and in Q2, we continued to make meaningful improvements in our customer service metrics.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

The supply chain team continues to reduce costs by eliminating out of market and multiple shipments, fewer customer accommodations, lower returns and damages, and reduced replacements. And our ongoing commitment to not running site-wide promotions and the reduction of our promotional offerings have improved margins. We are focused on delivering a compelling value equation to our customers, which in turn maximizes our full price selling. Now, I'd like to update you on the performance of our brands. Pottery Barn ran a negative 7.1% comp in Q2. Improvements in trends were driven by our compelling product assortments in coastal decorating and entertaining and seasonal holidays. We saw success in our new summer furniture launches and are optimistic about our fall furniture newness, with a focus on proprietary finishes and design.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Looking ahead to the back half, we have a strong holiday lineup that is off to a great start. There is no one else like us in the market with the incredible assortment of seasonal decorating for Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Hanukkah, and we are building on successful new programs that we have launched. The Pottery Barn Children's business ran a positive 1.5% comp in Q2, a continuation of our positive comp trend in the Q1 of the year. Innovation across our product offering and improvement in the shopping experience have been key to delivering this growth. In these life stage brands, back to school was a highlight, with dorm driving double-digit growth. In this space, we continue to attract new customers with our market-leading design, excellent quality, and sustainability promise.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We have bolstered the shopping experience with a suite of digital shopping tools and expanded in-store services, including free dorm design services and convenient shipping options to any of our stores near campuses. Product collaborations also continue to drive sales with existing and new customers. We're especially pleased with our recent collaboration with Roller Rabbit, and we are seeing continued success with LoveShackFancy. Now let's review West Elm, which ran a negative 4.8% comp in Q2. The brand continues to see success in new product introductions, with both summer and fall newness driving double-digit positive comp to last year, and this month, we are thrilled to drop our first catalog in the brand since holiday 2021. Additionally, West Elm launched a very exciting second collaboration with the fashion brand, Rhode, following a successful debut last year.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

This new collection features 120 pieces, including a relaunch of past favorites, combined with new textiles, tabletop, lighting, decorative accessories, baths, rugs, and a collection of items designed for college dorms. This collaboration is on track to do more than double the initial launch last year. Given the positive trends in newness and exciting collaborations in the pipeline, we have a sizable opportunity in West Elm as it rebalances more inventory into these new products. The Williams-Sonoma brand ran a negative 0.8% comp in Q2. In the quarter, we benefited from the performance of our new and exclusive products, offset by some tough compares in electrics. Sales from summer newness were up double digits to last year, and we're seeing strength in new and premium products found only at Williams-Sonoma.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

The strategy to offer our customers quality product they can't find anywhere else is working, and we are excited about our robust H2 lineup of in-house design products and exclusives. The Williams-Sonoma brand remains focused on delivering immersive culinary experiences in store, online, and at key events across the country. In store, we've inspired thousands of customers through our Sunday Skills series and demos, teaching customers from how to sous vide to how to make ice cream. Our Tools for Change campaign, supporting No Kid Hungry, celebrated its tenth anniversary this July. To date, we're proud to have raised over $16 million to help No Kid Hungry and end childhood hunger in America. We're grateful to all the chefs and celebrities that have contributed designs to our spatulas over the years.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

As we look to the H2, we will continue inspiring our customers to cook, host, and entertain for the holidays. This fall, the brand will launch the Art of Entertaining, where customers can benefit from expert advice on everything from setting a table, to hosting a dinner party, to floral arranging techniques, and to napkin folding tricks. We believe this focus on holidays and celebrations will not just drive volume in key categories, but will also cement the brand as the ultimate celebration destination in retail for new and existing customers. And lastly, we're excited by the momentum of our Williams-Sonoma Home business, which ran a slight positive comp in Q2. Now, I'd like to update you on our other initiatives.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Business to business continued its momentum in Q2, growing 11.5%, with record quarterly contract volumes growing 21.6%, while trade grew 7.1%. The hospitality space remains strong, with notable wins at the Sheraton Boston, the Hilton Beverly Hills, Renaissance Las Vegas, and Under Canvas for the Yosemite location. We have launched a new brand standard program with IHG's Hotel Indigo brand, being named a preferred vendor for lighting and upholstery categories. We're also seeing strong momentum in the multifamily space, including growing partnerships with Gorman Communities and the Discovery Land Company, and we're thrilled to partner with St. Jude to develop custom beds and nightstands for their Ranch for Children project in Nevada. Now, I'd like to talk about our global business.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

While we continue to navigate global macroeconomic pressures, our strategic initiatives are delivering positive results across key strategic markets, including India, Canada, and Mexico. The Canadian market continues to show strength, driven by growth from enhanced design services, emerging brands, and omni-channel services. In Mexico, we are optimistic about our brand's performance in the market, with strength driven by all brands, with the most significant contribution coming from PB Kids. We'll be opening two new stores by the end of the year, and three more set to open in early 2025. And finally, India remains a key area of growth for us. We're excited to expand the West Elm brand with two additional locations in new markets by the end of the year. Overall, our assortment, market, and service strategies are the differentiators for continued growth in our global markets.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Lastly, I'd like to update you on our emerging brands. Rejuvenation delivered another double-digit quarter. We're very optimistic about Rejuvenation's performance, with four consecutive quarters of positive comps. Their unwavering focus on delivering the highest quality products has allowed them to gain market share. The trend of home updates, particularly in kitchens and bathrooms, continues, with notable growth in cabinet and bath hardware and lighting. Additionally, our growth categories, including window hardware, textiles, home furnishings, and organization solutions, also performed well, providing our customers with the perfect finishing touches to complete their spaces. Mark & Graham, our monogrammed gifting business, also drove a high double-digit growth in Q2. They saw success with their coastal and beach products for the home and on the go, and had strong gifting sales in golf and personalized games.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

They've recently launched the Monogram Wedding Shop, as well as Mark and Graham Kids, which will be an exciting incremental growth strategy for the brand. And finally, Green Row, our newest brand, continues to grow and expand its assortment of vintage-inspired, colorful furnishings that are sustainably sourced and designed to last. This month, Green Row launched a new collection of thoughtfully made products, over a hundred and fifty new items, and a new catalog. The brand continues to innovate and create unique and differentiated products that fill a void in the market. We look forward to continued growth and exciting new products and partnerships in the coming months for Green Row. In summary, we are pleased with our strong operating results. Our revised outlook today reflects our prudent view of the top line and the confidence we have in our profitability profile.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Despite the macro uncertainty, we remain focused on our key priorities for 2024 that are driving the results we announced today. During the last few years, we, as a company, have navigated, learned, optimized, and built, all in preparation for our next chapter of growth. We have a strong omni-channel platform with an exclusive lifestyle offering and a sophisticated distribution network with additional capacity. And with that, I will turn it over to Jeff to walk you through the numbers and our outlook in more detail.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thank you, Laura, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to deliver another quarter of strong results, highlighted by our Q2 improved top-line trend, market share gains, and earnings that continue to exceed expectations. Laura touched on our three key priorities for FY 2024. One, returning to growth, fueled by product innovation and channel experience. Two, elevating our world-class service, which produces both customer retention and expense savings. And three, driving earnings as we continue to deliver strong profitability. These three priorities connect directly to the five key drivers underpinning our strong profitability in Q2. First, our e-commerce sales mix, with its higher operating margins, sustaining at 66% of total revenues. Second, our retail optimization strategy, delivering 3% less occupancy expense, inclusive of additional technology and supply chain investments.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Third, the pricing power of our in-house designed proprietary products and our emphasis on full price selling, contributing to our 380 basis point improvement in merchandise margins. Fourth, our supply chain efficiency from our relentless focus on customer service and operational excellence, producing 180 basis points improvement in selling margins. And fifth, our ability to control costs as we continue to manage variable employment costs materially in line with top-line trends. Given our strong Q2 results, we're confident we'll continue to gain market share and deliver strong earnings, even in this uncertain environment. Now, let's dive into the numbers. I'll start with our Q2 results and then provide an update on guidance for 2024. Net revenues finished at $1.79 billion, slightly below our expectations.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We gained market share as our comp of negative 3.3% outperformed the industry, which declined by approximately 10%. Importantly, we accomplished this even as we reduced our overall level of promotions in the quarter. Our Q2 comps improved from Q1, reflective of better performance in furniture and continued growth in our non-furniture categories. From a cadence perspective, our trends across the quarter were choppy and inconsistent, reflecting the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Moving down the income statement, gross margin came in at 46.2%, 550 basis points higher than last year, and substantially exceeding expectations. There were three drivers to this 550 basis point improvement: merchandise margins, supply chain efficiencies, and occupancy costs. Let's start with merchandise margins, which improved 380 basis points.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

This improvement was driven by our ongoing commitment to full price selling, lower input costs, and the residual benefit from lower inbound freight as we lapped last year's pandemic-related ocean freight runoff. Next, supply chain efficiencies contributed 180 basis points. Our commitment to full price selling is smoothing out the peaks and troughs created by promotional activity. This is yielding improved customer service, reduced customer lead times, and significant cost savings for more efficient operations. Key customer service metrics, including returns, accommodations, damages, replacements, out-of-market shipping, and multiple deliveries per order, are all performing better than pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, we are seeing cost savings across the supply chain for more consistent operations, including warehouse, manufacturing, and delivery expenses. And finally, occupancy costs, which were down 3% from last year, deleveraged 10 basis points.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We continue to optimize our retail fleet while we invest in our world-class technology stack and our supply chain. During the quarter, we began operating our new Arizona distribution center. This fully automated facility will replace an outdated distribution center, improve service time to our customers, and lower employment and shipping costs. Included in our occupancy costs this quarter were the cost of running both the new and old buildings, which will continue for the balance of FY 2024. Wrapping up gross margin, we delivered substantially higher gross margin this quarter. Turning now to SG&A, which came in at 30% of revenues, was 390 basis points higher than last year from higher employment expense and advertising spend. Employment expense was 200 basis points higher year over year, mostly from higher performance-based incentive compensation due to our strong EPS performance year to date.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

In Q2, we continued to manage variable employment costs across our stores, distribution centers, and customer care centers, materially in line with top-line trends. Advertising expense deleveraged 150 basis points as we continue to invest into higher levels of advertising spend. Our multi-brand portfolio allows us to test the return of our incremental spend, and our own hands-on keyboard approach allows our investment to go further and keeps our learnings in-house. Our advertising model is a key competitive advantage in the home furnishings industry. On the bottom line, our earnings once again exceeded expectations. Operating income came in at $290 million, with operating margin at 16.2%, which was 160 basis points above last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.74, up 18 cents or 12% year over year.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.3 billion, with no debt outstanding. This was after we invested $31 million in capital expenditures supporting our long-term growth, and we returned $203 million to our shareholders through share repurchases and quarterly dividends. Merchandise inventories ended the quarter at $1.2 billion, down 4.1% to last year. Our inventory levels are in line with our top-line trends and are well positioned to support our business. Summing up our Q2 results, we're proud to have delivered yet another quarter of earnings exceeding expectations. I'd like to thank our team at Williams-Sonoma, Inc. for delivering these great results. Our recent general managers conference reminded me how our talented, dedicated team is the best in retail and the key to our success. Now, let's turn to our 2024 outlook.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Twenty-twenty-four continues to be a challenging environment for home furnishings due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the slow housing market. This leads us to believe it's prudent to reduce our top-line outlook for the balance of the year while raising our operating margin guidance as we continue to deliver on our commitment to profitability. It's important to note that our lower sales outlook is offset by our raised operating margin, producing materially similar implied EPS guidance. On the top line, we now expect full year twenty-four net revenues to be in the range of down 4% to down 1.5%, with comps between down 5.5% to down 3%. Our updated guidance reflects the macroeconomic uncertainty, combined with our choppy and inconsistent trends. With this backdrop in mind, we're providing this updated range of outcomes for our top line.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

The midpoint of our guide reflects a continuation of the H1 economic and consumer dynamics through the back half of 2024. The high end of the guide implies some acceleration in industry trends, coupled with increased traction of our growth initiatives. The low end of our guide reflects the recognition that the macroeconomic environment may have a greater impact on our results in the back half of 2024. On the bottom line, we are raising our full year operating margin guidance forty basis points, based upon our Q2 outperformance. We continue to anticipate our operating margins in the back half will be materially in line with 2023 results.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

With a 40 basis point increase, we are raising our full-year 2024 operating margin to a range of 18.0% to 18.4%, which includes a 60 basis point benefit from the full-year impact from the Q1 out-of-period adjustment. Without the Q1 out-of-period adjustment, our full-year 2024 operating margin will now be in the range of 17.4% to 17.8%. Additionally, we expect our full-year 2024 interest income to be approximately $45 million, and our full-year 2024 effective tax rate to be approximately 25.5%. As a reminder, 2024 is a 53-week year for Williams-Sonoma, Inc., so the Q4 will consist of 14 weeks.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We anticipate the additional week will contribute 150 basis points to revenue growth and 10 basis points to operating margins, both of which are embedded in our guidance. We will report comps on a 53-week versus 53-week comparable basis. All other year-over-year compares will be 53 weeks versus 52 weeks. Our capital allocation plans for 2024 remain unchanged. We expect to spend $225 million in capital expenditures to invest in the long-term growth of our business. 75% of this capital spend will be dedicated to driving our e-commerce leadership and supply chain efficiency. As we've communicated quarterly, we're committed to returning excess cash to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We will continue to pay our quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share and have $826 million remaining under our $1 billion share repurchase authorization.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We will continue to opportunistically repurchase our stock to deliver returns for our shareholders. As we look further into the future beyond twenty-four, we are reiterating our long-term guidance of mid to high single digit revenue growth, with operating margins in the mid to high teens. We're confident we'll continue to outperform our peers and deliver shareholder growth for these five reasons that remain consistent: our ability to gain market share in the fragmented home furnishings industry, the strength of our in-house proprietary design, the competitive advantage of our digital first, but not digital only channel strategy, the ongoing strength of our growth initiatives, and the resiliency of our fortress balance sheet. With that, I'll open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Your first question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Your line is open.

Operator

Hi. Thanks, good morning. Was wondering if you guys could talk about the cadence of sales throughout the quarter across banners, and also any early readings on back to school, back to college in recent weeks?

Operator

Hi, Chuck. Good morning. You know, the cadence of sales for us doesn't, isn't really a relevant indicator, and I always. I know you all love to ask the question and also how this quarter is going, but it doesn't really amount to much in terms of predicting where we're gonna be. Remember, as we look to the back half, we have a big ramp in seasonal businesses, and that is not. So you know, what's happening now is not the same as what could happen then. And back to school is a great example. You know, innovation is a key part of our strategy, and especially in our life stage and seasonal holidays, where we're seeing great response, and back to school is no different. It's actually one of our highlights.

Operator

We've really seen our initiatives, particularly in dorm, really gain traction, and we're really gaining share in the dorm market, serving the customer with very high quality products. It's significantly positive. We're chasing inventory, it's high margin, and it's driven by both the product in bedding, also our no-nail solutions, bath and flooring. It's also driven by our exclusive collaborations, such as LoveShackFancy and Roller Rabbit, which has been fantastic for that demo. And then our channel functionality. So for example, dorm functionality launched earlier on the site this year, which we think was really good for our customers to be able to consider what they would buy before they actually get into school. And we had a shareable dorm wish list, a bedding visualizer, and then retail.

Operator

We really pushed, dorm at retail, both in our kids' stores, our teen stores, and we did a small setup in our Pottery Barn stores to really help drive awareness to build that market share. We've also worked with partners and influencers to drive awareness and, driving traffic off the Pottery Barn website to the dorm and back-to-school shop path has been another critical part of what we're doing.

Operator

Thanks, Laura. That's great. I actually just moved my daughter into college, and I can tell you the dorm business is very real. Jeff, just more for you, looking ahead into the back half of the year, any thoughts on the phasing of comps in the third and Q4, and any impact with the five fewer shopping days this year? Thank you.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Let me start with the shorter holiday season. Our quick answer on that is that the impact is already embedded in our guidance. There's a lot of puts and takes on this one for us. You know, for one, a shorter holiday season means each day has to work harder, especially at retail. But this year's calendar, with Christmas moving from Monday to Wednesday, is more favorable for e-commerce. And, you know, I think everyone knows our mix is 66% e-commerce, so that is actually a good thing for us. Then, you know, when you think about the back half for us, this year is a 53-week year, so our Q4 has 14 weeks in it. Punchline on this is there's a lot of puts and takes on the shorter holiday season, but it's in our guidance.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

As we think about the back half, as I said in my prepared remarks, the way we set up our guidance is the midpoint of our guide reflects the continuation of the H1 economic and consumer dynamics through the back half. The high end of our guide implies some acceleration in industry trends, coupled with increased traction of our growth initiatives, and if holiday proves out to be better, there could even be upside there. The low end of our guide recognizes the macroeconomic environment may have a greater impact on our results in the back half, but it's so uncertain, we've provided a really wide range of guidance with those possible outcomes.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird. Your line is open.

Operator

Oh, hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. First one, just maybe, Jeff, around advertising. I mean, historically, I think you guys run in the 6.5%-7% of sales, at least on an annual basis, for advertising. I know it's delevering the first part of this year. Just curious how you're thinking about the increased investment in advertising right now, when you need to see the return on that, and just maybe should we expect a period where you're maybe above that seven percent range for a bit, as we go through this period of softer demand? That's my first question.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thanks, Peter. Our multi-brand portfolio is clearly an advantage in a lot of ways, but particularly in marketing. Our cross-brand customers perform significantly better than other customers. In fact, they're four times more valuable. And we've really been committed, as you all know, to not running a promotional business. There's a lot of people out there that probably would push a few more comp points by running markdowns. We've chosen not to do that. We know, having done this for a long time, that the long-term investment in the fundamentals is more important than the short-term markdowns that give you an immediate pop and create all sorts of peaks and valleys, which aren't good for operations. Advertising investment, done correctly, builds customer growth, and so they also drive short-term sales. So it's a short-term sales and a long-term play with new customers.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Like anything else we do, we are constantly looking for opportunities to spend the last dollar more effectively, and that changes season by season, brand by brand, and marketing program by marketing program. Our loyalty program is another key part of this, and very effective. These, again, are our best customers, and we have the credit card program, and we also have the non-credit card key rewards program, which has been very effective. I'd say the last thing that we are doing that is, I think, a competitive advantage and something that we're doing more of than we did last year, substantially, is amplifying our creator-led content. Creator-led content, YouTube, TikTok, Meta, is helping us reach new audiences and is very effective.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

And it's an area that we're building in-house, and we're really excited about our leadership position as we go forward, because we think this is very, very relevant for our customers.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

That's all. Well, thanks, Laura. My follow-up question is around freight costs in that environment. I'm just curious, maybe your view as we maybe turn to 2025, freight rates have been coming up. Does that. How does that play into the maybe the margin structure as we think about next year? And remind us, just maybe your exposure to China and, you know, with all the talk of potential tariffs, that type of thing, just to maybe level set us on that front. Thanks so much.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Peter, good morning. A couple questions in there. So first one on ocean freight. We're not seeing an impact from higher spot market rates for on our ocean freight. We're mostly insulated from the fluctuations in the spot market with our contracted rates. I mean, here's the thing: as you know, one of our competitive advantages is our global supply chain. We're the eleventh largest container importer into the United States. So we have scale and relationships others do not. So while there may be challenges in the broader market, especially with smaller competitors, it's not been a factor for us, and any impact is already embedded in our results and our guidance. As far as China goes, we've significantly reduced our China source goods from the last time this came up back in 2018.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Back then, it was 50% of all of our imports were from China; now that number is down to 25%, and of that 25%, a third of them already have a Trump tariff on them, which we've been paying, and are still on them, so the fact that if this does come up and tariffs are expanded, we're prepared to reduce it further. We've mapped out a category-by-category plan to reduce China sourcing if the landscape changes, and you know, I think the important point here is, you know, with 90% of our products are proprietary, designed, and exclusively made for our brands, and we operate our own in-house, best-in-class global sourcing operation, with 12 overseas offices; it's our own boots on the ground, managing sourcing decisions, production, and shipping. So if the landscape changes, we're well positioned to pivot.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Good stuff. Thanks so much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Cristina Fernandez with Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is open.

Operator

Hi, good morning. I wanted to see if you can talk about any changes in customer behavior that you saw this quarter or so far here in August. Several retailers have talked about the consumer being more hesitant, less involved during non-peak periods, more resistant to price. Are you seeing any of those factors in your trends?

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thanks for the question, Cristina. You know, we're constantly studying all the customer metrics, to find anything that, you know, we can read into and build upon. It's interesting, furniture actually picked up from Q1, not as much as we wanted it to, but it's better than it was. And the other areas, you know, are still better than furniture. So leading to the, you know, strategy of really focused on the seasonal holidays, where no one else really plays, and these life stages, while the consumer is still not, you know, really buying a lot of new houses. So, in terms of price points, interesting question. You know, we have a lot of newness. It's working, it's very exciting, particularly in West Elm, where we have the most amount of newness, and it's not in low price points.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

It's in the medium to high price points, and that's also really, I think, a good piece of information for us. We are giving the customer great value, so we're not trying to develop things at higher price points. We're trying to develop the best value products at every price point. And I've said it before, but the truth is, where we have a lot of innovation, our prices are the best in the market, and, you know, no one has tried to copy us yet on the newness, which is why we're pushing newness as a key strategy in the back half, as a percent total. And as we continue to have these seasons click by and get confidence on the newness, we can buy more into it, and we usually have a pretty long cycle on that product growing before it declines.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thanks. And then my follow-up is for Jeff. On the operating margin for the quarter, I think, you know, last call you had talked about being flattish. It was off a hundred and sixty basis points. Where, you know, where did the upside come from this quarter, and why wouldn't some of those continue in the back half?

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thanks for asking that, Cristina. Q2 operating margin exceeded expectations for three reasons. The first is in merchandise margins, which were stronger than anticipated, driven by our focus on full price selling. We continue to see a positive customer response to our consistent pricing and focus on selling and service versus price. The second thing is our supply chain efficiencies also came in better, really attributable to our commitment to full price selling, smoothing out the peaks and troughs driven by promotional activity. This is delivering significant cost savings from more consistent operations across our manufacturing, operating, and delivery expenses. And third, we deleveraged advertising spends less in Q2 than in Q1. As Laura said before, we continue to evaluate our spend and adjust weekly as we see the effectiveness.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

You know, here's what I'd like you to remember, is we continue to deliver strong profitability despite the tough environment for home furnishings.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Operator

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So the first question I want to ask is just with respect to, you know, industry-wide promotions. Now, you've done a great job of holding the line on site-wide promotions at Williams-Sonoma, but you know, throughout the space, we keep on hearing about, you know, signals of more promotional environment. So the question I'm asking is: Are you seeing more promotional environment broadly? And then, are you able to quantify what impact, if any, that's having upon your business at this point?

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thanks for the question, Brian. We continue to see consistent high levels of promotions in the marketplace, in all sorts of forms, from site-wide promotions, free shipping, reduction of prices across the board, double rewards, you know, all of it. And, you know, we have played those games and know that they don't work, and you're competing with yourself more than you are with your peers and your competitors. It's really important that you give your customer great value. They look at that price, and they know what other things cost similarly to it in the market but the up and down to get a short-term pop that drives the short-term comp is not a good way to run your business. And so we are committed, as I said before, to running our business without those high levels of promotion.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Actually, you know, as much as we've been saying this for the past couple of years, we're still pushing this out of our base. So in Q1 and Q2, we significantly improved our regular price percent to total, and our regular price comps are significantly better than the markdown comps.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

That's very helpful, Laura. And then the second question I have, you know, you're recognizing we're not necessarily talking about the cadence of the business through the quarter, but it sounds like it's giving you a commentary on the, you know, the adjustments to the top-line guidance to the balance sheet, that the, you know, the business is weakened, or is at least tracking weaker than you initially anticipated. Could you help us understand if there's any specific areas you're seeing incremental weakness within demand?

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

So, you know, the reality is, our guidance, as Jeff mentioned, has a wide range, and it's that we expected the back half to accelerate. I think we all thought we'd have an interest rate cut or at least one or two by now, which we haven't seen, right? So instead of hoping for housing to turn around, we put the range together to reflect if the back half is similar to the H1. And that, you know, seems, I know, conservative because of the multi-year comps getting easier in the back half. But we just thought it was prudent, given the uncertainty in the macro, to, you know, reduce the top line so that we're not pressured to take promos to hit the number.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We want to run this business for the long term, and that's what we've been doing, and you're seeing the continued performance on the bottom line. I'll just say this, you know, we've said before, can you imagine what this thing looks like when you get some positive comps? And the best way for me to describe it is our operating model is a coiled spring.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Appreciate all the color. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Operator

Hi there. Good morning, everyone. I have a question. I guess this is the age-old question. Any difference in posture, thinking about the mix between sales and promotion in terms of stimulating sales and given that the backdrop seems to be getting more promotional? Thanks.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Absolutely not. But we are on offense with our product innovation and our marketing.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

And Simeon, I would just add. You know, I talked about it in my prepared remarks when answering Christina's question, but by not running the promos like we did and smoothing out the peaks and troughs of the promotional activity, it's really driving improved customer service, shorter lead times, and much more efficient operations across our entire supply chain, which is really flowing through to the bottom line.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

If I can ask a quick follow-up. The runway for merch margin is specifically related to supply chain or transport. I don't know if I missed, I may have missed earlier in the call, but I thought by the Q2, it would reach its, its, I don't know, its peak or its max, and then it would start to wane. Is that still about the right way to think about it?

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

It is the right way to think about it, and while we don't guide the specific lines, we are guiding that our operating margin in the back half will be flat with 2023. Really because some of the benefits that we had in the front half. Basically, we were up against the impact of the pandemic-related ocean freight runoff. That was worth about 200 basis points. Good guide to the H1, and then our focus on full price selling really kicked in in the back half of 2023. So, we had that upside by focusing on that in the front half, and in fact, if we look at our percentage of full price selling in Q2 of 2024, it's about the same rate as it was in Q3 2023, so that dissipates as well.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

So like we said, you know, we were up against some easier compares in the front half on the margin line. That starts to dissipate in the back half, which is why we're giving flat guidance on operating margin for the back half.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Okay. Thank you. Good luck.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Maxim Rakhlenkowith TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Operator

Hey, good morning. So first, Laura, can you discuss any learnings about your shoppers' reactions as you pulled back on promotions? Are shoppers reacting how you thought that they would? For instance, is your PB shopper may be a little bit more price-conscious than you thought or any other call-outs?

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

As I said earlier, there's not a lot to read there because, you know, the newness that's in the mid-price points are really working. We're not seeing a trade down. Furniture is better than it was, but furniture is still soft, right? And it's a big portion of both the West Elm and Pottery Barn businesses, which is why the comp complexion is very different in those versus the more life stage kids and teen brands and also, Williams-Sonoma. There's nothing really to read into that. What you do see is that they're not waiting for the promotions to the point that they don't. They're not worried that they're going to feel dumb if they don't, if they don't wait till the next promotion. They can buy it when they need it.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Our sales associates are thrilled that they can sell with confidence and not always be looking into a promo calendar to see when the next sale is.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Laura touched on the fact that, when we run promotions, we're really competing with ourselves a lot of times. And I think many of you heard me talk about the concept of shift versus lift, and how much of the promotions are really incremental versus just moving it around and incentivizing the customer to wait for it to go on sale. So now we can really focus on serving the customer, you know, selling to them, helping them with their design project. And the customer is not waiting for that next promotion. They're engaging on the design side.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Got it. That's helpful. And then, Jeff, maybe can you bridge the full year EBIT margin guide of 17.4%-17.8%, and then the long-term margin guide of mid- to high teens? What would need to happen and the key drivers in a bull versus bear case?

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Look, our long-term operating margin guidance is mid- to high teens, and our guidance for this year puts us right smack in the middle of that range. Certainly, if sales accelerate, we'd expect possibly some more margin expansion. But we've provided a range because there's a lot of variables in there, and we're pretty confident in our ability to sustain this profitability. We've demonstrated it. Last year, we delivered 16.4; this year, we're guiding in the mid-17s. This is sustainable, and we're confident in our operating margin going forward.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Great. Thanks a lot, and good luck H2.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with Retail Tracker. Your line is open.

Operator

Hey, guys. Congrats on some great execution in a choppy environment. Laura, I wanted to focus on some of the newness that you keep highlighting, because it feels, not only is there a lot of new product, like Roller Rabbit, for example, but it's the way you're attacking it. So I know, like at UNC, you had an entire event at one of the buildings with Roller Rabbit. Or with Rhode, I was just drowned in social media about it. That was really, really great, and it feels like that mix between your merchandising and your marketing has really come together. So I'm curious, you know, was that a change, or am I just getting hit with it? Is it bringing new shoppers into these brands? Is it bringing them in with more frequency?

Operator

How should we think about this for the back half of the year?

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thank you so much for the question. Yes, newness and innovation are really key parts of our strategy to drive growth, and we've seen a really strong response to newness. In West Elm, we've talked about newness is clicking across all categories, in particular, in furniture. And in fact, we've seen double-digit positive comps in both West Elm summer and fall new furniture introductions. Now, why you're not seeing that roll into the bigger number yet is because it's still a small % of total, because you want to make sure your newness is working before you bet the farm on it. We've had some great collaborations in West Elm. You've touched on Rhode. You know, Rhode this year is double last year. We introduced Marcus Samuelsson, who's an amazing chef, who has incredible furniture designs that we've introduced.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

And that's also been a great one. In Pottery Barn, we're seeing a good response to our newness there, too, especially in furniture and the seasonal decorating, which we're launching earlier than we've ever launched before. And I am so thrilled to see people scooping up Christmas this early. They also have some great new collaborations in the hopper and are gonna have an increased amount of collaborations next year. Kids and Teen have always been, in our company, our leader in collaborations, and just amazing from the license programs that we run, whether it's Hello Kitty to incredible designers like Roller Rabbit and LoveShackFancy. They've really been able to hit the nail on the head with what their consumer wants at every life stage.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Kids is different than Teen, but we're covering both, and you can really see that we're on trend by the results in Dorm. Williams-Sonoma, you know, the branded product in Williams-Sonoma is doing incredibly well. I'll give you one very specific example in Williams-Sonoma, which is our Williams-Sonoma branded cutlery. Higher margin, obviously, than the names out there that we all are familiar with, and really, rivaling them in volume. And, you know, there's also a lot of exclusives that we have and launch leads that we have with our key electrics partners and premium cookware. The Tucci collaboration, by the way, continues to be phenomenal, and we are not done with the innovation that Tucci is gonna be bringing, not just for the back half, but through next year.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

And so we're really excited about our back half lineup in Williams-Sonoma. We can't go into. I mean, I'd really like to talk about some of those things a little bit more, but I, I'm always cautious about competition and not giving away too much information. But the punchline is, we have seen a very strong response to newness and collaborations, and Marni, you are right, we are doing things differently with our creator-led content about collaborations. When you combine a collaboration with an influencer on TikTok, you have magic, and we are continuing to build that skill and really draw in new customers through those channels. So thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open.

Operator

Thanks a lot, and good morning. My first question is just making sure I understand some of the moving pieces of the margin outlook. Obviously, expecting a lower sales performance through the balance of the year, but you're holding your back half margin guidance.

Operator

So Jeff, maybe you could give us some color as to where you see the upside, so to speak, on margins relative to a couple months ago. What areas, whether it be in departments of gross margin or SG&A? Thanks.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Good morning, Seth. So on the operating margin outlook for the back half, we've consistently said all year that we anticipate that our back half operating margins would be flat year over year. What we've done this quarter is we've raised based upon our Q2 outperformance. In terms of the puts and takes on margin, you know, we don't necessarily guide the individual lines. But we will give you some color commentary like I did before. You know, the gross margin, some of the benefits that we had coming at us in the front half start to wind down in the back half. That includes the supply chain headwinds we're up against the H1, which, as I said before, was worth about two hundred basis points.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

And then we start lapping, the improved promos in the back half. So we see that as being essentially, essentially flat. And then, you know, just overall, this is true for our entire guidance is, you know, the macroeconomic uncertainty. We're taking a very prudent approach to our back half guidance, given the macroeconomic backdrop. And if things are better and we see some better performance in holiday, we could surprise the upside, but at the same time, if the macroeconomic environment, is more challenging, we'll be more at the low end of our guidance.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

That's helpful color. So just make sure I understood you, you're looking for gross margins to be flat year over year in the back half, closely, SG&A the same. What areas of SG&A do you have the opportunity to reduce in a slower sales environment? You're talking primarily variable labor and advertising, or is there anything else? Thank you.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Look, Seth, you know, we don't guide individual lines, and we just guide top line and operating margins. It gives us the flexibility to pull the levers we need to deliver results. And as you've seen, we know how to deliver results. In terms of levers we have, certainly, ad cost is flexible. As Laura mentioned before, we evaluate this on almost a weekly basis, depending upon the returns we're seeing and the effectiveness of the advertising. And then our employment, like I've said many times before and in my prepared remarks, our employment is largely variable. The majority of our employment is in our stores, our distribution centers, and our customer care centers, and we can flex that in line with top line trends as things evolve.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

I think the punch line here is, you know, we're guiding flat operating margin guidance, in the context of a very uncertain macroeconomic environment. We're taking a very prudent approach with this guidance, and we're giving ourselves the flexibility to pull levers as we need to, to deliver the results.

Jeff Howie
Jeff Howie
EVP and CFO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Makes sense. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citi. Your line is open.

Operator

Great. Good morning. Thanks very much for taking my question. I was gonna focus a little bit more on the medium to longer term, because understandably, the macro is challenging for the category. But as we start to see demand recover, right? We're at a point where this business has done, you know, very well on a merchandise margin, overall selling margin. What's the opportunity going forward? Presumably, you've pulled back from promotions in the business. Why can't the gross margin rate for this business be much higher as you start to see demand recover?

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Great question. I would say that, you know, housing is clearly a big driver of furniture sales, and we all know housing is about the worst it's been. But at the same time, there's a lot of people calling for the bottom here, and hopefully, we see an interest rate and multiple cuts in the next six months. Could take a little bit of time for that to flow through, but when people feel better, they tend to shop more, especially in our categories for their homes. And I, I really, I said it before, but we want flexibility because we always want to give the customer great value, right? So we don't want to overprice products. We want to make sure that our brands are accessible.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

We want people to be able to come and shop with us and, across our brands, not be so expensive that it's a very small group of people. So we hold that back to say, you know, there is a point at which you don't want to raise the margin too high and not be competitive. On the other hand, we're delivering this incredible margin against negative sales and, you know, negative sales a couple of years running here. So can you imagine what this looks like when the sales are flat to positive? I said it before, operating model is a coiled spring. It's very exciting to be sitting here knowing that we have built an organization with structural margin, profitability profiles, and a lot of innovation, and capacity to grow much bigger than we are today without huge step-up investment.

Operator

This concludes the Q&A session. I will turn the call to Laura for closing remarks.

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Thank you all for joining us. We are entering our favorite time of the year, which is the holidays. And I'll remind you that Halloween is right around the corner, as is Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Hanukkah, and the new year. So, I hope you all are out there in our stores and seeing all the great product lineups. We are very excited about what we have out there, and I look forward to talking to you next time. So thank you for your support. Appreciate it.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for joining. You may now-

Laura Alber
Laura Alber
President and CEO at Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Goodbye!

Operator

Disconnect your lines.

Executives
    • Laura Alber
      Laura Alber
      President and CEO
    • Jeremy Brooks
      Jeremy Brooks
      Chief Accounting Officer and Head of Investor Relations
    • Jeff Howie
      Jeff Howie
      EVP and CFO
Analysts
    • Analyst
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