Stella-Jones Q2 2024 Earnings Report

Stella-Jones EPS Results

• Actual EPS: C$1.94
• Consensus EPS: C$1.96
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -C$0.02
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Stella-Jones Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.05 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.07 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$25.17 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Stella-Jones Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2024
• Date: 8/7/2024
• Time: N/A
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, August 7, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Stella-Jones (TSE:SJ) Inc produces and sells lumber and wood products. The company operates in two segments: Pressure-treated wood, which includes utility poles, railway ties, residential lumber, and industrial products; and Logs & Lumber segment comprises of the sales of logs harvested in the course of the company's procurement process that is determined to be unsuitable for use as utility poles, it also includes the sale of excess lumber to local home-building markets. The vast majority of its revenue comes from the Pressure-treated wood segment. Its geographical segments are the United States and Canada, of which the majority of its revenue is derived from the United States.

Stella-Jones Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Sales increased 8% in Q2 to over CAD 1 billion, driving a 14% rise in EBITDA to CAD 200 million and a margin expansion to 19.1%.
• Utility poles sales grew over 20% year-over-year on volume gains (40%) and pricing, supported by capacity expansions set to complete later this year.
• Railway ties sales were up 11% due to higher non-Class 1 volumes, but are expected to taper in H2 as a Class 1 customer shifts its maintenance program.
• Residential lumber sales fell 9% to CAD 243 million, driven by lower volumes amid weak housing and construction activity.
• Company remains on track to meet or exceed its 2023-25 targets, forecasting a ~15% CAGR in utility poles and ~18% full-year EBITDA margin for 2024.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Stella-Jones's second quarter of 2024 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will hold a question and answer session. To queue up for questions by phone, please press star one and a moderator will contact you. If anyone experiences difficulties hearing the conference call, please press star one for operator assistance at any time.

[Operator]

I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Wednesday, August 7, 2024. Please note that comments made on today's call may contain forward-looking information, and this information, by its nature, is subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the views expressed today. For further information on these risks and uncertainties, please consult the company's relevant filings on SEDAR+.

[Operator]

These documents are also available in the Investor Relations section of Stella-Jones's website at www.stella-jones.com. Additionally, during this conference call, the company may refer to non-GAAP measures, which have no standardized meaning under GAAP and are not likely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. For more information, please refer to the company's latest MD&A, available on Stella-Jones's website and on SEDAR+. Lastly, we have prepared a corresponding presentation, which we encourage you to follow along with during this call. I'll now hand the call over to Éric Vachon, President and Chief Executive Officer of Stella-Jones. Éric?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm here with Silvana Travaglini, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Stella-Jones. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release reporting our results for the second quarter of 2024. Along with our MD&A, it can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.stella-jones.com, as well as on SEDAR+. As a reminder, all figures expressed on today's call are in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise stated. Our financial and operating performance during the second quarter was characterized by the continued strong organic growth in sales and increase in profitability. Our Q2 results reflect our proven strategy to consistently meet customer demand and leverage the breadth of our operations to solidify our long-term proposition.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Standing at the halfway mark of our three-year financial plan, we are well-positioned to meet or exceed the targets we set out last year. As part of our growth strategy, we undertook a significant CapEx program over two years ago, focused on increasing our utility poles capacity. This additional capacity allowed us to solidify our existing customer relationships, as well as secure new commitments. Though we continue to note a slower pace of incremental purchases from some of our customers, their ongoing focus on strengthening the electrical grid to support heavier loads instill confidence in our long-term prospects. The projected increase in the use of electric vehicles and data centers for artificial intelligence and sustained demand for broadband projects are all catalysts for our business growth. Our utility pole CapEx program, which will be largely completed later this year, represents the culmination of our approach to plan for long-term demand.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Much of our success in recent years is a direct result of our operational expertise, solid customer relationships, and acute industry intelligence, and I'm very pleased with what we continue to accomplish as a business. Turning to an update on each of our product categories, utility poles continued on its growth trajectory in the second quarter, with sales benefiting from both favorable pricing and improved volumes. With the second quarter marking the start of a more active maintenance season, we were pleased to see the expected uptick in utility pole volumes, including the addition of new contractual customer business. For the non-contractual business, we have started to see some pricing normalization, but it is sparse and localized to regional markets. As a result, it is now our expectation it will not significantly impact our results in the second half of the year.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

With the utility pole product category being anchored in strong fundamentals, we remain confident in the outlook for this category heading into the second half of 2024. While we are still witnessing some conservatism from utilities in terms of project spending, Stella-Jones has benefited from volume gains, thanks to our expansive network and established customer base. We continue to see a growing shift with both new and existing customers towards longer-term sales agreements, which aligns with our business philosophy of ensuring that we can cater to long-term needs. Sales from our railway tie product category increased from last year, largely due to higher volumes, a trend that has persisted since the beginning of 2024. We are better able to service our non-Class I client base, given the ample supply and financial resources available to replenish our inventory levels.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

While sales growth of our non-Class I business is a positive catalyst for the railway tie product category, we also continue to focus on servicing our Class I customers with whom we maintain strong relationships. These railway operators provide a stable source of revenue for the company, and this contributes to the inherent consistency in terms of growth and results of this product category.... Turning now to residential lumber. Sales were down relative to the second quarter of last year, driven largely by lower consumer demand. The price of lumber has also remained lower than expected due to several factors impacting market demand, including a slowdown in housing and construction projects, as well as reduced activity from sawmills.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Our focus for the residential lumber product category remains to ensure our customers stay stocked in premium quality products, so that when retail customers decide to move ahead with their decking and fencing projects, we will be there for them as a supplier of choice. In line with our ongoing focus to be a partner of choice to all stakeholders, Stella-Jones prioritizes meaningful action across all facets of its organization and value chain to ensure its long-term sustainability. As part of this commitment, on August first, we published our annual Environmental, Social, and Governance Report, which articulates our ESG performance against our strategy and achievements over the past year. For the first time in our company's history, we have completed a company-wide climate transition, risk, and opportunities assessment, aligning with the TCFD and ISSB, and including Scope 3 emissions among our overall greenhouse gas reporting.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

These were significant undertaking in an industry and business such as ours, and I'm very proud of our collective accomplishments over the last year. I encourage you to refer to our website to review our 2023 ESG report and learn more about our sustainability approach. I will now hand it over to Silvana, who will provide a more detailed overview of our second quarter financial results.

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, Éric, and good morning, everyone. We are very pleased with our strong second quarter financial performance, which translated into notable increases across all of our key metrics. Sales for the quarter increased by 8% to over CAD 1 billion. This increase was largely attributed to higher utility poles, railway ties, and industrial product sales, which grew by 17%. These infrastructure-supporting product categories benefited from volume gains and favorable pricing compared to the same period last year, as well as from the contribution of the Baldwin acquisition. On the heels of our strong sales growth, operating income increased to CAD 168 million from CAD 149 million in Q2 last year. Similarly, EBITDA grew by 14% to CAD 200 million this quarter, following a similar 14% increase in Q2 last year.

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

We expanded the EBITDA margin from 18% in 2023 to 19.1% in the second quarter of this year. Compared to the first quarter, all product categories generated similar margins as a percentage of sales. The sequential decrease in EBITDA margin was largely a result of the product mix, given that residential lumber typically represents a higher relative proportion of sales in the seasonally strong second quarter. We ended the quarter with net income of CAD 110 million, or CAD 1.94 per share, versus CAD 100 million, or CAD 1.72 per share in the second quarter of last year. Now, let's take a closer look at the performance of our product categories.

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

Sales of utility poles increased to CAD 470 million, compared to CAD 388 million for the same period in 2023, a robust growth of over 20%. Utility pole sales benefited from our accretive Baldwin acquisition and a strong organic increase of 16%. This ongoing growth was driven by price adjustments and additional volumes stemming from existing and new sales commitments. The volume gains this quarter represented about 40% of the total increase. Sales of utility poles accounted for 45% of total sales for the quarter and almost 50% on a year-to-date basis. Sales of railway ties grew by CAD 27 million, for a total of CAD 265 million compared to the second quarter of 2023.

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

This increase was largely attributed to higher volumes for non-Class I customers, which, as Éric noted, is a trend that has persisted since the first quarter. Better pricing also contributed to the sales growth. Railway tie sales accounted for 25% of overall sales for the quarter. Residential lumber sales were CAD 243 million, a decrease of CAD 28 million compared to sales of CAD 271 million during the comparable period last year. While the market price of lumber has remained weak, most of the decrease quarter-over-quarter came from lower sales volume due to slower consumer demand. Given the seasonally strong second quarter volumes for residential lumber, this product category accounted for 23% of total sales in the second quarter. Our company is highly cash generative, which enables us to finance our growth plans and maintain a strong financial position.

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

In the second quarter, we generated cash from operating activities of CAD 177 million and used this cash to invest in our network, reduce leverage following the typical build in working capital in Q1, as well as return capital to shareholders. We ended the quarter with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5x, which is within our target range. As part of our normal course issuer bid, we purchased CAD 20 million of shares and paid CAD 32 million of dividends in the second quarter. As of the end of June, we were on track on our commitment to returning capital to shareholders, having returned over CAD 260 million out of the CAD 500 million committed for the 2023 to 2025 period.

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

Yesterday, our board of directors approved a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.28 per share. We ended the quarter with inventories of CAD 1.7 billion, relatively in line with the CAD 1.6 billion of inventory as of December 31, 2023. We continue to expect inventory at year-end to be in line with levels at the beginning of the year. This investment in inventory places the company in a good position to continue to service its customers on a timely basis. In the second half of 2024, we are focused on continuing to deliver strong performance and growth while returning capital to shareholders. In summary, with the financial strength of the business and the solid market fundamentals of our product categories, we remain well-positioned for continued success. With that, I will now pass it on to Éric for his concluding remarks.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, Silvana. Our results from the first half of the year position us favorably to end 2024 on a high note, and we remain on track to meet or exceed our financial objectives for the 2023-2025 period. Our positive outlook is rooted in the strong industry trends underpinning our product categories, particularly for utility poles, our largest product category. We continue to expect utility pole sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15% for 2024 and 2025, now fueled by a mix of both volume and pricing.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Though we have recorded strong railway tie performance in the first half of the year, volume gains realized so far are expected to taper off in the second half of 2024 on account of changes made by a Class I customer to its maintenance program this year. We remain confident in the product category's stable source of revenue and its ability to deliver low single-digit sales growth, as stated in our three-year outlook. Looking forward, we expect that weaker pricing and the demand observed for residential lumber in Q2 will place the product category sales at the lower end of the CAD 600 million-CAD 650 million range target set in our objectives.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Based on our strong EBITDA margin performance in the first half of the year, we expect to surpass our targets for this year, despite the lower sales activity anticipated for railway ties and residential lumber in the second half of the year. As a result, we are forecasting to end 2024 with a margin closer to 18%. I started this call by mentioning how our strong customer relationships helped contribute to our great financial performance for the second quarter, but it is more than that. All of our employees are significant contributors to our company's success, and I want to thank everyone for your ongoing dedication and commitment to Stella-Jones. With that, I will now open the line to questions.

[Operator]

Thank you, Éric. The line is now open for questions. I would like to remind you that if you're on the phone and wish to ask a question, please press star one. Our first question is from Jonathan Goldman from Scotia Capital. Please go ahead.

[Jonathan Goldman, Equity Research Analyst at Scotia Capital]

Hi, good morning. Hi, good morning.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Good morning.

[Jonathan Goldman, Equity Research Analyst at Scotia Capital]

Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with a housekeeping question, Éric. In terms of the organic sales growth in poles, can you give us a breakdown of how much of that was volume-driven versus price?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. So for the quarter, volume was approximately 40% growth, and obviously, 60% is the pricing piece.

[Jonathan Goldman, Equity Research Analyst at Scotia Capital]

Perfect. Thanks for that. And then I guess the second one is, if you can elaborate on the factors underlying the change in view from previously expecting pricing pressure in the second half to now not expecting it, specifically, significantly impacting results. And I guess, like, the follow-up would be is: Why would we not assume that the current margin levels are the new normal?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. So, you know, so we started out the year, you know, cautioning with extra capacity and some potential softness in the spot market. There is some softness in the spot market, actually, but we are seeing pricing hold relatively well. So, you know, with that, you know, after six months under our belts, our observation is that we feel quite confident we will not feel a significant headwind, you know, from those dynamics for the balance of the year. With regards to your question on EBITDA margin, well, a few comments. First, a reminder, our Q4 is always a softer quarter. You know, it's a lower maintenance season. You know, there's a bit less activity.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So typically, if you look at our cycle, Q4 is typically a bit lower, so that would average us down slightly. And then, obviously, you know, I commented on less railway tie sales in the second half of the year. You know, our fixed costs don't necessarily go away, so it would impact margin to some extent, but still confident that, you know, we can achieve, as I stated, closer to 18% margin for the year.

[Jonathan Goldman, Equity Research Analyst at Scotia Capital]

... and the current market dynamics that you're observing in poles, do you see those dynamics changing in 2025, whether it's increased competitive intensity, more capacity?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. It's a bit early to, you know, speculate on 2025. We still need to sit down as a management team and, you know, take a harder look at it. But, I still feel very optimistic about what, you know, the next 12, 18 months will bring. We're currently being asked to quote several significant projects, very attractive projects that are looking for very unique size and length profile of inventory, which we do have to sell. So obviously, we do hold a strong inventory position. So I feel very confident that we are well-positioned to service the market needs as they're evolving to, you know, larger sized products.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

You know, that we'll keep seeing that growth in volume going forward as we have it in our guidance up till the end of 2025.

[Jonathan Goldman, Equity Research Analyst at Scotia Capital]

Okay, thanks for taking my questions.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

My pleasure.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from James McGarragle from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[James McGarragle, Canadian Aerospace and Diversified Industrials Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Hey, congrats on the good quarter, and I appreciate you having me on.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, James.

[James McGarragle, Canadian Aerospace and Diversified Industrials Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Just one for me on infrastructure spending. You know, we heard during U.S. reporting from a company, you know, they flagged that only 15% of infrastructure funds, you know, from the U.S. IRA spending has been spent. And, you know, that kind of points to a very long runway for growth that, you know, is obviously gonna be potentially pretty positive for your company. You know, so is that consistent with the long-term conversations you're having with your customers? You know, and I'm not asking for guidance post 2025, but just kinda any color you can provide to help frame that type of longer term opportunity.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah, good, good question. And I think the key word there is long term, so I think it is most likely a post-2025 impact. So our customers are indicating that projects are getting structured and that the funding is available. It is surprisingly taking a long time between the time the bill was passed and actually seeing the impact of those funds, you know, supporting new projects. But yeah, you're completely right. It's. We from what I understand, we could see some of those effects, you know, post-2025, but it is still there as a tailwind, if you want, for demand for our products.

[James McGarragle, Canadian Aerospace and Diversified Industrials Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Okay, thanks for the color. And then on M&A, can you just comment on the pipeline right now? And you know, any additional color you can provide on, you know, potentially expanding into adjacent type of areas of business, you know, something like cross ties, composite poles, you know, any updates to the flag there? And I can turn the line over after. Thank you.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah, certainly. So thank you for that. So, you know, I'm happy to report, I have mentioned this, I believe in individual meetings, that we do now have a vice president responsible for business development. He also has treasury reporting into him. And we've been actually very structured now and very active in investigating different avenues. We obviously started the core. We remain focused on seizing good opportunities, quality assets in the wood treating business. But we have been exploring and getting ourselves very well educated on complementary products or other types of products, maybe steel or composites, in both railway tie and utility poles. So, you know, in the last six months, we've grown significantly internally as far as knowledge goes.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

We are exploring certain avenues and obviously looking for that, you know, that right stepping stone to start expanding our offering to our customers, which, you know, by the way, is something that, you know, our customers keep indicating that they would be happy to see us venture into. So I guess that's the update for now. Stay tuned for future updates.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Hamir Patel, from CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Hamir Patel, Executive Director of Equity Research at CIBC]

Yeah, good morning. Éric, it looks like in Q2, your pole prices, I guess, were up 10%. I think in Q1, they're up 12%, the quarter before that, 18%. So clearly, the comps are decelerating, but still positive comps. So just given, you know, your commentary earlier about you are seeing some signs of softness in spot, how do we think about maybe for the next couple of quarters, your overall price gain in poles? Because clearly, you still got some contractual business that's continuing to get repriced positively.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. So, you know, going forward. So you're right. My comment was that the spot market has shown some softness. It's not necessarily generalized. So let's call it, let's say, stable for the balance of the year. You know, but going forward, you know, I do believe that our pricing gains will continue, to your point, to be a bit lesser, call it 20%-30%, and the balance would actually come from volumes. As I mentioned earlier, we have or are looking at a lot of opportunities, obviously, year-over-year gains with new customers, which is obviously very positive for us, and also new projects that we're being shown, you know, that'll extend over several years that we're presently quoting.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Could start later in the year, but definitely into early next year, and as I said, well-positioned with our inventory profile to service those, those new projects.

[Hamir Patel, Executive Director of Equity Research at CIBC]

Okay, great. And Éric, how do you think about when the company would look to update the multi-year guidance? Because, you know, if you're looking, pointing to 18% this year, at right now, that 16% three-year average basically implies margins kind of plunge to, like, 11% next year, which clearly that doesn't appear to be the case. So when should we expect an update to the multi-year guide?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. So, thank you for the question. You know, I think that question came up actually last quarter. So I had a few criteria when I wanted to see how we worked through half of the-- this year and better understand the pricing pressure in the second half of the year. I think we're sitting there at this point. I wanna sit down with my management team and better understand our five-year plan and our budget for next year. But I think you're completely right. You know, we're very optimistic of how we're gonna finish the year. We should be very close to several of the metrics we put out in our financial guidance.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So we're actually studying that possibility, if you want, early in the year to meet with the investment community to discuss about, you know, our next three years and what that could look like for Stella-Jones.

[Hamir Patel, Executive Director of Equity Research at CIBC]

Okay, fair enough. But I mean, Éric, is it fair to say right now, just if you're kind of tracking towards 18% for the year based on what you're seeing in the pole market, does that look sustainable into 2025?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Hard to tell at this point. You know, I, I guess I won't commit to that at this point. But obviously, you know, if our utility pole business continues to be, you know, that, that strong product category and obviously has, you know, the healthier margin profile, I, you know, one thing, our, our 16% now seems a, an easy target to achieve. So, so I wouldn't disagree with what you said, but before committing to a number, I think we really need to sit down and come up with, with our new guidance.

[Hamir Patel, Executive Director of Equity Research at CIBC]

Fair enough. And, just a last question for Silvana. It looks like the commentary on CapEx with respect to the investment in the pole category, maybe CAD 10 million higher, now CAD 35 million in 2024, 2025. Is, is that just, maybe some capital cost inflation, or does that reflect maybe additional, capacity expansion?

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

No additional capacity. It's all related to higher inflationary costs that I guess we had not all factored in when we started or when we put out the program in 2022.

[Hamir Patel, Executive Director of Equity Research at CIBC]

Okay, fair enough. Thanks. That's all I had. I'll turn it over.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, Hamir.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Benoit Poirier, from Desjardins Securities. Please go ahead.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Good morning, Silvana. Good morning, Éric.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Morning, Benoit.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Yeah, just to come back on the utilities, when you discuss with customers, what's the overall mood when it comes to CapEx, especially as we are heading into a lower interest rate environment in the U.S.? Are they looking to beef up CapEx for utility pole?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Well, two parts to the answer. One is, when we talk to customers in general, they're really upbeat about their projects, their needs, and, you know, what they want to realize and accomplish, you know, in the next two to five/six years. So, you know, that's why we remain very confident in the fundamentals of our pole business and believe in a continued sustained demand for products and even volume growth. But definitely to your point, a lower interest rate environment would definitely be a positive. So I, again, you know, I do think some of our customers, especially for project-driven initiatives, you know, lower interest rates obviously make the returns more attractive for our customers.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

I do believe that, that would be very positive.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay. And just on the railway ties, obviously a very strong first half, that's coming from non-Class I customers. You mentioned in the opening remarks, there will be some taper off, coming from Class I customers on the back half. But just curious on 2025, if you could provide any color about the demand from Class I, but also the non-Class I. It seems that the outlook is still robust. So could we see, let's say, a double-digit organic growth for railway ties in 2025, given the earlier comments you made about both subsegments?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. So, you know, Benoit, we're holding our views of the low single-digit growth, probably more on volume than the pricing, because I think we're sort of seeing pricing gains this year compared to last year as we were adjusting pricing. I do see that stabilizing now, you know, going forward, and I do think the growth is coming from volume. So to your point, there are some projects that are out there for bid, to which we're obviously actively seeking to win. I think I believe our Class I customers remain dedicated to maintaining their networks and that demand keeps flowing through. And we do have a few conversations with some of our Class I customers on certain projects, which seem very appealing to us.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So, you know, so there is very healthy dynamics in the discussions. I'd be very surprised to see, you know, demand taper off in this case, as an overall industry comment. But I guess we still remain with our views of that low single-digit growth.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay, and the last one for me, you mentioned the 18% target in terms of EBITDA margin for 2024. But given what you've delivered in the first half and given the positive comments about pricing demand, the overall mix coming more on the utility side, less exposed to residential and also favorable mix on the railway ties, could we see even EBITDA margins to expand in the second half versus last year and finish upward to the 18% target that you mentioned earlier on the call?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So typically, Benoit, H2 has a lower average of EBITDA margin than the first half. Q4 is always a bit of an unknown. It's always a softer quarter. It's always hard to predict if, you know, Class I's will pre-order or certain classes will pre-order for 2025. So obviously, lower volumes with the current network just increases that average cost just on the fixed cost rate, if you want. So, you know, I think we're very comfortable and happy to, you know, up our views on our margin this quarter. But, you know, I think it'd be reasonable to achieve the number we put forward.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you very much for the call.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

My pleasure, Benoit.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Tupholme, from TD Securities. Please go ahead.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Thank you. Good morning.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Morning, Mike.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Morning. So just to clarify, Éric, for the second half of this year, as far as the mix of the drivers to organic growth for utility poles, you're saying sort of 20%-30% of the expected organic growth should come from pricing? Is that how you're now thinking about it?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yes, correct.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Okay. As we look out to 2025, you, you reiterated earlier on the call your expectation for utility poles organic growth of 15% for both this year and 2025. Just in terms of that mix of volume versus price in 2025, would it be similar to what you're thinking about for the second half of this year, where there's sort of a 20%-30% price component? Or is it something different as we think about 2025's mix?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

We think pricing could actually be a bit stronger, so it's probably 50/50 or at least 40% on pricing.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Okay. And then you've talked about and have been asked about the, you know, the, the previous risk of pricing pressure in the utility poles market. Is it fair to say then? I mean, I think the comments were mainly around not expecting really to see those pressures materialize in the second half of this year. But as we look out to 2025, is it fair to say you're not really, like, that risk is sort of off the table at this point? You're not seeing that as a risk into next year for the spot market. Is that fair to say?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

It's fair to say. I'll say we're taking it off the table, because the pricing is holding. And, you know, part of the driver is those requests that are coming out are asking for specific size and length and pieces of wood. And it's product that we maintain an inventory on an ongoing basis, and it seems that we are able to cater to those needs, I guess, more easily. So, and we're still commanding some healthy pricing there, versus, you know, I guess some of these customers not finding exactly the whole profile of what they're looking for elsewhere in the market.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Okay. And then just as we think about next year, again, you reiterated the proposed 15% organic growth expectation. It sounds to me, and maybe you can just confirm, like, you haven't really started to see lower rates begin to drive additional volumes in poles, notwithstanding a couple of cuts by the Bank of Canada, and I guess bond yields moving down in the U.S., notwithstanding if the Fed is yet to cut. But as you think about 2025, is that 15% organic growth guidance for poles in 2025? Is that assuming benefits from lower rates, or would lower rates be incremental if that drove some further volume?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. So, you know, I don't like to speculate on economic dynamics. So yeah, next year's growth is not assuming significant change in interest rate. You know, to your earlier comment, you know, the rates have dropped in Canada, but the biggest driver for utility spend related to the rate is heavily weighted to the U.S., which we haven't seen drop yet. But, you know, I guess back to what I was saying is that our guidance does not take into account, you know, this, I guess, tailwinds from lower rates and seeing more activity.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Okay, perfect. And then just lastly, I mean, I think you've sort of touched on it a little bit here in a couple of your comments, but can you just provide an update on, you know, any details on new client wins and how you're thinking about the potential growth that could come from that side of things beyond just the existing customers ramping up?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Right. Well, if I, you know, specifically look at 2024, so we did, you know, sign on a few new customers, and it took a while for them to sort of, you know, start picking up inventory and, you know, building the relationship. So, I think we saw some positive effects of that in Q2, and I continue believing that we'll see even more positive effects of that with these same customers for the back half of the year. So obviously, that sort of supports our views on volume. And, you know, going into next year or future years, we're always courting new customers and bidding on projects and looking for long-term agreements.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

As I said in my comments, more and more customers or potential customers are seeking a long-term relationship with a supplier that has the proper profile and the proper network in North America to support their needs. So, you know, we keep opening those doors, if you want, and you know, looking for new business, but I'm not ready to comment yet for 2025.

[Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank]

Okay, that's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, bye, Mike.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is from Martin Pradier from Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.

[Martin Pradier, Investment Analyst at Veritas Investment Research]

Thank you for taking my question. In terms of railway ties, we've seen very, very strong volumes, and the guidance is, like, 3% for the year. So, are we going to see negative numbers in the second half? I know you said that they would be lower, but will they be negative, or we'll have more than the 3% for the year?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

No. So yes, it would be year-over-year negative. As one Class I reduced their program this year, they took most of their volume in the first half of the year. You know, if I look at Class I demand, we know what their expectation is for, let's say, 2024. Then they'll use up, I guess, their requirements at different paces. Some of them will do it in the first six months of the year. A lot of them are done usually by the end of September, as far as buying ties and finishing up the install, you know, in early 2024.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So in this particular case, yeah, we have seen a bit of a switch or up front-loaded for one or two Class Is earlier in the year, which does mean that we'll have a bit lesser in the second half. So we really need to look at it on an annual basis, just because, you know, we need to be on our game to service them well, have the product ready when they need them.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

That would be, you know, part of the feature that we need to put forward in order to maintain the relationships with our customers and, you know, hopefully get larger pieces of their maintenance programs there going forward.

[Martin Pradier, Investment Analyst at Veritas Investment Research]

Great. And in terms of residential real estate, we've seen a decline that was perhaps a little bit stronger than I expected. Can you comment on how much was volume versus price, and how does that look going forward for the second half?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Yeah. It was, like, all volume. I would say, like, you know, 90% volume, so pricing has been relatively stable. If you look at lumber prices, so we tracked the two by six on random lengths. It's been, you know, hovering between 600-650 a thousand board foot. So it's been. Our sort of sales price have been relatively stable to the market, so it's really all about volume. Discussions with our customers, they believe that, you know, we could still catch up part of that in the second half of the year. That's our customer's view.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

We've been a bit more conservative and said, "Look, we'll look at the lower end of our guidance for now." And, you know, if they do manage to wrap up some volume, it'll be a pleasant surprise for us, you know, going to the end of the year. But I think our guidance right now is reasonable.

[Martin Pradier, Investment Analyst at Veritas Investment Research]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

My pleasure.

[Operator]

Thank you. Before taking the next question, we'd just like to remind you that if you're on the phone and you wish to ask a question, please press star one. Our next question is from Benoit Poirier, from Desjardins Securities. Please go ahead.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Thanks. There was some very unfortunate events that took place, obviously, in Florida, where we've seen Jasper, not too long ago, California. So any thoughts about whether it has been a headwind, a tailwind, and the potential implication going forward for you?

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Well, you know, Benoit, every year we have unfortunate fire events, windstorms, you know, different events that, you know, impact, you know, different regions in North America. You know, so we take a lot of pride in our emergency response, in servicing our customers, and making sure that we get the power back into communities and supporting, you know, obviously, emergency services. It's never been a big tailwind. You know, we've never seen a big uptick. You know, I think I've explained a few times in the past that, you know, when one region suffers and, you know, more efforts are put into, you know, changing out some poles and putting some infrastructure, a lot of nearby communities, their utilities will go out and help out.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So if there's an event in Texas, you'll see, you know, utilities from Louisiana, for example, go and help out. So when that happens, there's less work happening in Louisiana. So, you know, it's. There could be small upticks. It's never significant enough for us to call out, if at all sometimes. But I guess, again, the value that we bring is being able to service our customers 'cause they don't have to worry about: Are we gonna get poles? They know they're gonna get them. We have the fleet of trucks, we have the employees, we have the service, we have the inventory, and we have 24-hour availability when storm response is concerned.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

So I think that's where we show the strength of our network and the strength of our inventory position to support our customers.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay, that, that's great. Then maybe, just a quick one for Silvana. Given all the comments made on the call out, how should we be looking at the working capital movements in Q3 and Q4, and maybe for the full year?

[Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO at Stella-Jones]

Yes. So, we still, we do expect, you know, in the second half of the year with the volumes picking up, as we mentioned, for poles, we do expect, you know, a drawdown there. So year-over-year, you know, we are, as we had said, still expecting the inventory levels to be flat. So, you know, a drawdown in the second half, in order to end up with that flat year-over-year working capital movement.

[Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, Benoit.

[Operator]

We have no further questions in the queue. Thank you.

[Éric Vachon, President and CEO at Stella-Jones]

Thank you, Matthew, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our third quarter call in November. Until then, have an enjoyable end of summer, and be safe. Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Silvana Travaglini, SVP and CFO
• Éric Vachon, President and CEO

Analysts

• Benoit Poirier, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Desjardins Capital Markets
• Hamir Patel, Executive Director of Equity Research at CIBC
• James McGarragle, Canadian Aerospace and Diversified Industrials Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Jonathan Goldman, Equity Research Analyst at Scotia Capital
• Martin Pradier, Investment Analyst at Veritas Investment Research
• Michael Tupholme, Director of Equity Research at The Toronto-Dominion Bank