Canadian Pacific Kansas City Q4 2024 Earnings Report

Canadian Pacific Kansas City EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.92
• Consensus EPS: $0.66
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.27
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: $2.82 billion
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2024
• Date: 1/29/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, January 29, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 4:30PM ET

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE:CP), together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. It also provides rail and intermodal transportation services over a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centres. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was incorporated in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Good Q4 & full year performance with strong volume growth, improved operating ratios, and core EPS up 9% in Q4 and 11% for the year.
• 2025 guidance calls for mid-single-digit volume growth and 12–18% core EPS growth, in line with multi-year targets.
• Completed the second span of the Laredo Bridge and is investing in capacity-boosting projects like 100 new Tier 4 locomotives and infrastructure upgrades in Mexico and Kansas City.
• Automotive franchise delivered record results with 16% revenue and 23% volume growth, earning CPKC the GM Supplier of the Year award for finished vehicles.
• Work stoppages at the Port of Vancouver and severe winter weather disrupted Q4 operations, and lingering uncertainties over North American trade policies may pose risks.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon. My name is Margaux, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to CPKC's 4th Quarter and Full Year 2024 Conference Call. The slides accompanying today's call are available at investor. Cpkcr.com.

[Operator]

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to introduce Chris De Bruin, Vice President, Capital Markets to begin the conference call.

[Chris de Bruyn, Vice President Capital Markets & Treasurer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thank you, Margo. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I want to remind you this presentation contains forward looking information. Actual results may differ materially. The risks, uncertainties and other factors that could influence actual results are described on Slide 2 and in the earnings press release filed with Canadian and U.

[Chris de Bruyn, Vice President Capital Markets & Treasurer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

S. Regulators. This presentation also contains non GAAP measures outlined on Slide 3. Please note, in addition to our regular quarterly financials, there's supplemental Q4 and full year combined revenue and operating performance data available at investor. Cpkcr.com.

[Chris de Bruyn, Vice President Capital Markets & Treasurer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

With me here today is Keith Creel, our President and Chief Executive Officer Nadim Belani, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer John Brooks, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer and Mark Redd, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. The formal remarks will be followed by Q and A. In the interest of time, we appreciate if you limit your questions to 1. It is now my pleasure to introduce our President and CEO, Mr. Keith Krill.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Okay. Thanks, Chris, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this afternoon to review our Q4 and full year results as well as what our views are and what we see as an exciting year ahead in 2025. As always, I want to start by thinking the 20,000 strong world class railroaders we call our CPKC family for their efforts to produce these results. Over the course of what was a historic 1st year as a combined company. And I can tell you as a leader, it remains my honor to represent these results that we're going to cover on behalf of the entire CPKC family.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So for the quarter, the team delivered revenues of $3,900,000,000 that was up 3%, we had volume growth 2% in the quarter, an operating ratio of 57.1%, which is 160 basis points improvement, core EPS of $1.29 up 9% versus last year. For the full year, total revenues of $14,500,000,000 which is up 5%, volume growth of 3% and industry best and operating ratio of 61.3, 70 basis point improvement, core PS of 4.25 percent up 11% versus last year. And I can say all that despite a number of challenges, we delivered on the guidance that we set out at the start of the year to produce double digit earnings growth and we did it safely. I can tell you Mark will elaborate on the points, but I'm extremely proud that CPKC continues to improve on our personal injury frequency ratio and again this year we leave the industry with the lowest trained accident frequency. Looking at the year ahead, there's certainly no shortage of uncertainties that are out there from the macro to trade policies, but we're focused on controlling what we can control.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

From a guided standpoint, with the opportunities that we have in front of us, opportunities that this network uniquely enables, we expect to deliver another strong year of growth. As outlined in the press release in 2025, we expect to deliver mid single digit volume growth and earnings growth of 12% to 18%, which is in line with the multi year guidance that we set out at our 2023 Investor Day. On the initiative side, we continue to invest in safety and service to support the growth in the Q4. I'm extremely happy to say we completed the construction of the 2nd span of the Laredo Bridge. Next week, I'm excited to go to Laredo to host an opening ceremony where we'll christen the Patrick J.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Ottensmeyer International Rail Bridge. As many of you know, Pat's vision and leadership were instrumental, not only in this project, but also the creation of CPKC, would carry on his legacy and the work that we do every day at this company. That investment, as well as others that we're making across our network, will continue to support the growth that we're bringing into the network in a safe and efficient manner. Growth that's uniquely enabled by this network. Growth like MMX, 18,181, again, the fastest and most reliable single line rail service from Chicago to Mexico in the industry.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Connecting New Origins to destinations across our ECP, MMC and Grain portfolios and automotive utilizing our closed loop service solution, which is creating tremendous value for our suppliers in CPKC. In fact, I'm very happy to share with the group that CPKC was just recently last week named GM Supplier of the Year for finished vehicles in 2024. Some would say, is that impactful? I would suggest yes. I've been at this for 34 years.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

It has never occurred in any of my service in the industry. And just to order magnitude, out of 20,000 suppliers, only 100 are picked on an annual basis. So that's a meaningful recognition from a voice of a customer that means a tremendous amount to our team and certainly illustrates the strategic value of strategic partnerships. Credit to the commercial team and the operating team that have marketed and executed this industry changing solution delivering the service that's unparalleled in the industry. Again, the award is just an example of the many service benefits that our customers are enjoying from this new unique network.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So in closing, I'm going to say short term things are out there, certainly uncertainties from the macro to the trade policies we've entered into 2025 with a tremendous amount of momentum that we fully expect to build on as we move throughout the year. The long term fundamentals of the North American economy and trade between the 3 countries this network uniquely connects remain unchanged. CPKC's value proposition is as strong as it ever was. We're extremely proud of the results we produced in 'twenty four and we're excited about those that lie ahead of us in 'twenty five and beyond. So that said, I'm going to turn it over to Mark.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

He'll elaborate a bit on the ops. John will bring some color to the markets and Nadim will bring it back to me after he elaborates on the numbers. Over to you, Mark?

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes, thank you Keith and good afternoon.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I'm extremely proud of the performance the operating team delivered this quarter and also throughout 2024. I'd like to thank each one of them for their hard work and dedication in delivering best in class service to the customers and their unwavering commitment to safety. As I look at the results in the Q4, we continue to drive year over year operating improvements. Just looking at train weight, length both improved by 4%. Locomotive productivity improved by 1%, while our fuel efficiency improved by 2%.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

These results speak to the efficiency of the network and they are worth highlighting given the impact of the work stoppages we had at Port of Vancouver and also the winter weather we dealt with in the Q4. Despite these challenges, we rebounded quickly and had a strong end to the year. While we continue to deal with weather across the parts of the network today, our resources are properly sized and to meet demand and we are efficiently handling strong start of the volumes in this year. Looking at safety, our FRE personal injuries were 0.84, 26% year over year improvement for the quarter and our FRE train accident frequency was 1.03 which is a 5% improvement year over year. I'm very pleased to know that for the 2nd year in a row CPKC led the industry with the lowest FRE reportable train accident frequency among the Class 1.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Building on the legacy of 17 years of consecutive industry leading for CP. And although we will never stop striving to do better, I'm proud of seeing them in the results. So turning to capital, in 2024 we made several key investments to drive capacity and efficiency. The engineering team is delivering efficient improvements by leveraging technology to help us more accurately plan maintenance and capital investments across the network. During the year, we in service 8 new signings as part of our merger, a capital and commitment to the STB.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We also invested in Mexico with new infrastructure targeted toward Mexico capacity and fluidity. These investments are paying off. As performance has been stable throughout the year, we are delivering strong service to our customers. Finally, I will share my enthusiasm as well, Keith, with the opening of the Patrick J. Asimaya Bridge.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

The bridge is more than doubling the capacity on what is already the safest and most reliable U. S.-Mexican border crossing. The increased capacity is allowing my team to optimize border crossings and improve the efficiency at the border.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Now looking at 2025, our plan is to continue to support safe and efficient sustainable growth through pinpointing efficiencies and capital investments across the network. We continue to make upgrades of the legacy KCS locomotive fleet, which will allow more assets to lead trains in Canada and improve our flexibility in directing our power north. We're also investing in new capacity including merger sidings, merger CTC along with targeted investments in Mexico and Kansas City to improve fluidity in these key corridors. Our timing to then service these investments is aligned closely with our growth outlook ensuring that our network performance and growth and our volume growth are locked up. We also were taking delivery of 100 new Tier 4 locomotives this year that will support our growth, improve reliability and fuel efficiency.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

In closing, we are carrying positive momentum in 2025. Our network is strong and resilient, poised to deliver mid single digit RTM growth along with the efficient reliable service that our customers expect from CPIC. With that, I'll pass it over to John.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

All right. Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon, everyone.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

The team overcame certainly several challenges this quarter, including disruption at the Port of Vancouver, the weather impacts that Mark spoke to and an uncertain macro to deliver solid growth, strong pricing and unique value to our customers. We closed 2024 out strong and 2025 is off to a good start. Our network is performing well. I feel good about the setup heading into this year and our ability to deliver mid single digit volume growth. Now looking at our Q4 results.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

This quarter, we delivered freight revenue growth of 3% on 2% increase in RTMs. Sense per RTM was up

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

1%, strong pricing continuing, partially offset by fuel and mix. Now taking a closer look at our Q4 performance, I'll speak on an FX adjusted basis. Starting with bulk, grain revenues in RTMs were up 11%, a record Q4 performance. Canadian grain volumes were up 18% with increased grain to Vancouver and Thunder Bay, driven by the improved Canadian grain crop. We also saw higher volumes of Canadian grain move into Mexico as our network continues to deliver on these new synergies.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Now looking forward, our comps for the first half of the year remained favorable in this area. That coupled with our regulated grain pricing of approximately 6.5% and continued synergies has us well positioned for Canadian grain. U. S. Grain volumes grew 5% over the prior year.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Our U. S. Grain franchise continues to benefit from a solid harvest, steady demand and growth in new lanes as we expand our market reach. In 2024, as an example, we moved over 130 trains from legacy KCP's grain franchise to markets south of Kansas City, most of which are completely new markets for these customers. In potash, revenues were down 4% on a 7% volume decline.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Now despite solid potash demand in the quarter, our volumes were impacted by the strike and the challenging weather. We moved record levels of potash though in 2024 and with positive demand fundamentals and Canpotex fully committed to strong levels through Q1, we are well positioned for another strong year of growth in 2025. And to finish out our bulk business, our coal revenue was down 3% on an 8% decline in volume. The decline was mainly driven by U. S.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Coal volumes impacted by a specific customer outage, while the work stoppage in weather impacted our Canadian coal shipments. Now moving on to our merchandise franchise. Energy, Chemicals and Plastics grew 2% on 1% volume growth. We continue to deliver volume growth across multiple commodities in this area, fuels, LPGs, biofuels, driven from a variety of opportunities, self help and synergies. This growth though was partially offset by lower crude by rail volumes in the quarter.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Now looking ahead to 2025, we see solid demand fundamentals coupled with continued wins in plastics, LPGs and renewable diesels, delivering another strong year in ECP. Forest products revenues were up 1% on a 5% increase in volumes. Now despite a soft base demand environment, we are delivering unique synergy growth and extended length of haul in this space, including lumber shipments moving from Canada all the way down to Texas. We continue to work with our customers and supply chain partners in this space to deliver unique service solutions that will position this business for accelerated growth as the housing market and broader macro improves. In the metals, minerals and consumer products area, revenue was down 4% and a 5% volume decline.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

A softer demand environment coupled with production challenges at a customer facility impacted our volumes in the quarter. These declines were partially offset with higher volumes of frac sand. Now similar to Forest Products, with our development of 2 new aggregate transload terminals and the startup of Aluminum Dynamics' new facilities on our network in Mississippi and Mexico, we are well positioned in MMC to benefit from these strategic network developments along with further growth as the broader macro continues to improve. Moving to automotive, revenue was up 16% on 23% volume growth, another record quarter and a record year in automotive. This team continues to raise the bar and I'm extremely pleased with our sustained differentiated performance in this space.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Benefiting from our unique closed loop service model that Keith spoke to and key network developments and investments such as our Dallas Auto Compound, growth in synergies are tracking well ahead of expectation with line of sight to future opportunities. In 2025, despite increasingly tougher compares, we expect our auto franchise to continue delivering steady growth as we benefit from new contracts and the ramp up of market share gains. On the intermodal side of the business, revenue was down 6% on 1% volume growth. Starting with domestic intermodal, volumes were up 4%, driven by growth in our refrigerated business and our U. S.-Mexico MMX service.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Looking to 2025, we have strong line of sight to continued growth in domestic as several opportunities start to take hold. Our business with Schneider and others on the MMX service accelerated to peak levels in Q4, and we expect continued growth in 2025 as we add our direct service between Mexico, Texas and the Southeast U. S. With CSX. Additionally, Americold's cold storage warehouse co located in our yard in Kansas City will start ramping up mid year.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

This facility will serve as the anchor along with new CPKC rail served co developments now in Mexico and at Port of St. John, which Americold announced yesterday. These projects build on our strategic collaboration with Americold as we further expand our reach of our unique rail serve temp control supply chain. On the international intermodal front, volumes are down 1%, primarily due to the labor disruption in the Port of Vancouver. The decline was partially offset by growth from a new contract that continues to ramp up in higher volumes for the Port of St.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

John. Now looking to 2025, we see a lot of opportunity in this space from increased customer utilization of our CPKC ports and growth through our differentiated service offerings. So to close, we rebounded quickly after the work stoppage and weather impacts. Our network is performing extremely well and we feel good about delivering mid single digit RTM growth in 2025. And while the macro remains uncertain, we are confident in our unique growth from synergies and self help, along with our continued ability to achieve pricing that reflects the value of our servicing capacity.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

2025 is going to be an exciting year, and I look forward to sharing success in the coming quarters. With that, I'll pass it over to Nadine.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

All right. Thanks, John, and good afternoon. I'd like to start by thanking the CPKC family of railroaders for their tremendous effort and execution in our 1st full year as a combined company. Our best in class team of railroaders continues to rise to the occasion to produce results that are exceptional. Now turning to our Q4 results on Slide 12, CPKC's reported operating ratio was 59.7% and the core adjusted combined operating ratio came in at 57.1 percent, a 160 basis point improvement over prior year.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Diluted earnings per share was 1.28 dollars and core adjusted combined diluted earnings per share was 1 $0.29 up 9% versus last year. Turning to our full year results on Slide 13, CPKC's reported operating ratio was 64.4% and the core adjusted combined operating ratio came in at 61.3%, a 70 basis point improvement over prior year. Diluted earnings per share was $3.98 and core adjusted combined diluted earnings per share was $4.25 an increase of 11% versus last year. Taking a closer look at our expenses on Slide 14, I will speak to the year over year variances on an FX adjusted basis. Pump and benefits expense was $619,000,000 or $625,000,000 adjusted for acquisition costs and the tax recovery.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

The year over year decline was driven by lower share based compensation and efficiency gains from improved train weights, particularly partially offset by inflation, incentive compensation and volume driven increases from higher GTMs. Looking to 2025, we expect our average headcount to be up low single digits, driving labor productivity gains against the mid single digit RTM growth we expect to deliver. Fuel expense was $459,000,000 down 13% year over year. The decline was driven by lower fuel price and a 2% improvement in fuel efficiency from running longer and heavier trains, which resulted in $6,000,000 in P and L savings for the quarter. These savings were partially offset by volume driven increases from higher GTMs.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Materials expense was $116,000,000 or $115,000,000 adjusted for acquisition costs. The year over year increase was driven primarily by a long term parts agreement that was put in place last quarter. This agreement is driving higher materials expenses. We have in sourced a subset of our maintenance work, but we are recognizing a favorable offset within PS and O for net savings in the quarter. Equipment rents were 94,000,000.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

The year over year increase was driven by inflation and lapping against pooled equipment credits received in 2023. Depreciation and amortization expense was up 6% year over year resulting from a higher asset base. Purchased services and other expense was $538,000,000 or $517,000,000 adjusted for acquisition costs and purchase accounting. The year over year decline was driven by savings from the long term parts agreement I mentioned earlier, efficiency gains in IS as we consolidate systems and lower casualty expense. These savings were partially offset by inflation and increased maintenance expense.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We continue to drive efficiency and cost synergies gains with excellent momentum heading into 2025. We expect these gains along with the impact of lower expected inflation to be sustainable and continue improving our cost structure going forward. Moving below the line on Slide 15, other components of net periodic benefit recovery were 87,000,000 in Q4, reflecting the lower discount rate compared to 2023. Full year 2025, we expect this line to increase by 76,000,000 from 352,000,000 in 2024. Net interest expense was 203,000,000 or 197,000,000 excluding the impact of purchase accounting.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Year over year decline was driven by a reduced debt balance. Income tax expense was $246,000,000 or $353,000,000 adjusted for a decrease in Louisiana state income tax rate, purchase accounting tax and a tax recovery. For 2025, we expect CPKC's core adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 24.5%. Turning to Slide 16, we are generating strong cash flow this year with cash provided by operating activities of $5,300,000,000 in 2024. Our commitment to safe and disciplined growth is reflected in our capital investments.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And in 2024, we reinvested $2,800,000,000 dollars This is slightly higher than our outlook to invest approximately $2,750,000,000 during the year, with the increase driven by a higher U. S. Dollar versus Canadian FX rate. Our discipline and strategic investments in safety and capacity across our network position us to continue efficiently absorbing the growth that this merger has enabled. Looking to 2025, we expect to invest approximately $2,900,000,000 in CapEx.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Again, this is slightly higher than the outlook provided in our multi year guide with the increase driven by expected FX impacts. We generated $2,700,000,000 in adjusted combined free cash flow this year. We have continued to direct free cash flow after dividends towards repaying debt. I was very pleased to see Moody's recently upgrade us back to our target Baa1 credit rating. We certainly are getting closer to be in a position to return to increasing shareholder returns.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

In review of the quarter, the team continues to deliver discipline on price and cost control, exceptional execution and industry leading results. We have strong momentum entering 2025. Looking ahead, although the macro and trade policies remain somewhat uncertain, we expect to deliver 12% to 18% core adjusted earnings growth in 2025, underpinned by mid single digit RTM growth. We also anticipate generating strong free cash flow while investing in the network and reinstating our share buyback program. Putting all of this together, CPKC offers a truly differentiated investment profile, Combining our unique growth opportunities with industry best execution is driving the results that we are sharing with you today and I'm excited for the opportunity that we have in 2025 and beyond.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

With that, let me turn things back over to Keith.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Okay. Thanks, gentlemen, for the color. Let's take the balance of our time and open up for questions. Operator, over to you.

[Operator]

Thank you. And your first question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

[Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. Maybe we start on the RTM outlook. And so John, you gave us some, I think, helpful color there, but maybe we're going to unpack it a little bit more and kind of curious how you think about sort of first half, second half cadence of that. And if you can break it out, how much you might be getting from specific new opportunities, KCS related or merger related opportunities or what you're seeing kind of in the underlying book of business with core customers?

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Sure. All right, Chris. So, couple of comments maybe on this. So, maybe high level, you think about it in terms of real simple 2% to 3% tied to synergies. And I'd say 2% to 3% tied to kind of our base organic business and initiatives tied to the base railroad.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I can tell you, I'm not really counting on the macro and hoping for maybe a second half tailwind if we see something there. So it's really about self help. I'll tell you probably a little more weighted towards the back half, but I'll tell you this, we're off to a really strong start and not dissimilar to 2024. I think our setup, particularly the first half of the year, as you think about our bulk franchise, is really good. So to be honest with you, I'm trying to see a path to outperform maybe the first half and then we'll see what the second half of the year brings.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I think we're the comps look pretty good in the grain front. As I spoke to, we've got a really strong outlook in potash and also Elk Valley has got a strong outlook for coal. On the initiative, outlook for coal. On the initiatives front or the synergy front, just to give you a little color on that, continues to be really excited for the international space. We're really busy on that front.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

St. John is going to prove to be a nice bump in improvement for us. Of course, we got Americold's new facility that was announced there. We're going to call out some new services from Gemini at Port of St. John.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And honestly, that area combined with what we do down at Lazaro and growth in Vancouver, I'm pretty positive about that. The automotive sector continues to shine. And I know there's a lot of maybe uncertainty swirling around out there. But you know what, I think we feel irregardless of that, we're set up well. Our closed loop system is producing results as Keith spoke to relative to GM.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And we see some other partners there coming on in 2025 that they're going to help pay dividends. And maybe last, I'd point to our intermodal service and specifically our new route with the CSX. Not only is that going to provide a lot of opportunity in and out of our new auto compound in Dallas for finished vehicles, potentially even parts. But we're super excited about what it's going to do in terms of our dry van business and refrigerated business in and out of Mexico that we can use on that route. So I hope that gives you a little bit of flavor, particularly sort of high level around the split between synergies and sort of what I consider base initiatives.

[Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo]

Yes,

[Operator]

And next we're going to go to Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

[Fadi Chamoun, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Just maybe follow-up on Chris' question. So the 4% to 6%, I guess volume kind of band that you've highlighted, is this kind of how we should think about the volume kind of range versus the EPS range? I'm just trying to think of what would be required, I guess, to be at the higher end of the range versus the lower end of the range. I wonder if the volume band or not. And really my question is, maybe Keith can provide some kind of perspective from your conversations with customers on on the potential for these trade policies changes maybe affecting behavior?

[Fadi Chamoun, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

And do you feel that this mid single digit kind of volume growth this year is quite independent from anything that happens on that front?

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Let me, Thad, if I can, let me take a stab at the latter part of your question, and then I'll let John provide some color. John and his team have spent a tremendous amount of time as we all have concerned and trying to learn about what may or may not happen to the tariffs. And the bottom line is we don't know. But what we do know is that in spite of that volatile, perhaps uncertain, perhaps outcome, we still have investment that's not pulling back, that's doubling down. I've got one particular customer strategic customer that was only enabled and created as a result of this transaction, this merger single line service where it's a new product to the market that made a commitment to me and he's since commitment made a commitment, KEP announced expansions of the facilities that he understands this is a long term play.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

This is a railroad built forever, not a railroad built for 48 months. Now not to say we don't have to navigate that, not to say we're not going to be close to our customers, but I can tell you this, trade between these three nations has never been in my assessment more critical. President Trump drove a hard bargain and was central to renegotiating USACA back at the beginning of the pandemic. I believe that was finalized in 2020, then we had the pandemic occur. Supply chain security became an amplified issue that didn't exist before and that has really accelerated not only the expansion of near shoring and ally shoring, but the integration of our supply chains.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And that's true in all spaces. You can talk about automotive. I mean, if you really got into the details line by line, commodity by commodity, how many engines and transmissions are built in the U. S. That go to Mexico so they can produce the vehicle that comes back to the U.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

S. That goes to the consumer market because the fact is, we've got 75% of production capacity in the U. S. And 25% that's got to come from somewhere else based on what we consume on an annual basis. So that type of interdependence, that type of need is woven into this economy.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And I think in the end, the range was responsible. The range makes in some risk. If it's not as volatile as we think it is, then don't expect us to be at the 12, expect us to be another number. That's responsible conservatism. We feel it is our responsibility to ensure that our investors understand we don't have our head in the sand.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We're not sitting on the sidelines. We're going to be engaged. We're going to be at the table. We're going to be involved. I'm going to be involved at the table as far as working with the business communities and the government in Canada.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I'm going to do so in the U. S. And I'm going to do so in Mexico. We have a vested interest to make sure that our shareholders, our customers' interests are represented. And in the end, the right thing and Mr. Trump's desires to build a stronger America, to bring jobs to America, to balance trade, I think is going to be accomplished. And we're going to see, I think, exceptional growth between the 3 nations. I just think that. And I think the other thing, a lot of people get wrapped up in this. I tend to listen to what people say.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And I know that there's things that are said and unsaid, but when I hear a President that I take very seriously say that what I'm concerned about Canada and what I'm concerned about Mexico is that you take action to address immigration concerns and illegal drug trade concerns that are occurring at our borders. And what I've seen since he said that, if you don't, I will impose a very significant number. But what I've seen since then is a very responsible Canada take action. I've seen Mexico take action. I personally went down to Mexico City and met with President Schambom the week before Christmas, had a very productive discussion with her about all of our business about what our network entails and how we can align and help her achieve Mexico's ambitions.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

But at the same time, the partnership and the trilateral trade between the 3 nations in a very extreme unique way. And that resonates. It makes too much sense not to resonate. So at the end of the day, again, we don't know where to put the pen exactly. We think the range is the responsible way to represent that.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And I would be extremely surprised if it's not at the higher end versus the lower end unless there's just some crazy some volatility because certain people stick their head in the sand and I just don't see that occurring. I don't think that's in even best interest and I think a pragmatic approach will cure the day and we're going to come out on the high side, not on the low side.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Betty, this is John. So maybe I'd just add a little bit to that. I've spoken to dozens and dozens of customers here over the last month or so. And I think the reality is the growth platform and the initiatives that we have line of sight to aren't really going to be impacted. I mean, we are going to be focused on delivering those unique, whether it be synergies or base opportunities.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We're going to be fostering the base railroad demand in our bulk franchise that I spoke to. And frankly, if you look back to 2018 2019 during the last set of tariffs, I think the reality was that these supply chains are very complex. It's commodity by commodity. It's lane by lane. It's customer by customer.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And ultimately what happens and I think what we saw is there wasn't a lot of change. It's hard to change these complexities overnight. So we're going to keep laser focused on the opportunities ahead of us. Just like any sort of volatile demand environment, this team will be ready to adapt and react if something material does change in one direction or the other. And otherwise, we're going to be laser focused on delivering the growth that we just spoke to.

[Fadi Chamoun, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Appreciate it. Thank you.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes. Thank you, Bobby.

[Operator]

And our next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

[Brian Ossenbeck, MD - Senior Analyst, Transportation at JP Morgan]

Hey, thanks. Appreciate taking the question. Maybe one for Adeyemi, so you're looking into next year. Can you give us some of the assumptions or maybe your visibility into the inflationary environment or hopefully disinflationary environment on some of the bigger line items? And maybe also some commentary on expectations for the buyback and how we should think about that starting up and at what pace and at what time? Thank you.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Sure. Thanks, Brian. So inflation, I think it's something that's impacted the industry a fair bit as far as absorbing the costs last 2 years and not being able to fully reprice as contracts come up and price above inflation. And so we've been we've absorbed a lot of that on the expense side, on labor, on purchase services, on materials, with steel prices, commodity prices and of course, tightness in labor markets. So that being said, we've seen inflation moderate in some areas kind of non labor closer to 2%, 2.5% the past year, which is much more normalized.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We've seen particularly in Canada, inflation come down closer to 2%. And then on the labor side, it's moderated. Just start with something with a 3% as opposed to what we faced with the PAB, etcetera. So it's much more normalized environment from an inflationary cost side. I think we anticipate getting pricing in that 4%, 4.5% range for the year. So certainly, we see an opportunity there to see improvement, support margin improvements in 2025 from pricing above inflation. And on your second part of your question, as far as the buyback, yes, we said we wanted to get our leverage back down below 3, closer to 2.5. Percent. We've accomplished a lot.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We've paid back by the end of this week. It will be close to CAD7 billion of debt post our announced transaction and post our deal. So we've been very successful in delevering. The currencies hurt us a little bit, Canadian dollar depreciating and being at a 52 week low has certainly hurt our balance sheet and hurt our leverage number. But if you normalize for a more kind of long term average on the Canadian dollar, we are closer to that 2.5%, 2.6% level.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So all that means is, yes, we're excited about being returning to the market. You can expect us to continue to invest back into the network this year about $2,900,000,000 I think we want to address the dividend to an extent. Our yield is, I think, 0.7% and even lower at this level. So we'll do something there, but we're going to be balanced in how we return cash to shareholders. And then you can see that the model fits out a significant amount of cash and we'll use the rest to buy back shares and some more to come.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We've talked long term when we looked at our Investor Day that range about 3% to 4% is what the buyback kind of spits out when you factor in our CapEx and dividend approach and getting our dividend closer to 25%, 30% payout. So that's kind of what you should expect from us.

[Brian Ossenbeck, MD - Senior Analyst, Transportation at JP Morgan]

Okay. Thanks very much, Jadeen.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thanks, Brian.

[Operator]

Thank you. And your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Steve Hansen, Managing Director & Equity Analyst at Raymond James Financial]

Yes. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks. Appreciate the time. Look, if we think back on the 2024, you were obviously hit by a whole host of diversions and disruptions across the network.

[Steve Hansen, Managing Director & Equity Analyst at Raymond James Financial]

Don't need to go through them all here. But if I can stick the tariff issue aside for a minute, I mean, how do you feel about the repeatability of those types of events going forward, whether it strikes at the ports, the terminals, the workers themselves on the railroad? I guess you won't predict wildfires or things like that. But I mean, how do you feel about the normalization of that effect in the 'twenty five?

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Well, the way I look at it, I think they were episodic. I think 2024 was especially the multiple strikes we had with the ports. Our labor strikes, I think it was a very challenging, especially in Canada year with episodic events that I don't see occurring in 2025, reoccurring and I say that because of a couple of things that are extremely encouraging that have just recently developed. We just literally this week negotiated an agreement with Uniphore. We negotiated an agreement with BMW.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Next week we'll be with USW. I applaud the union leadership, their professionalism, their wisdom and allowing us to come to an agreement that's good for our customers, good for our employees. At the same time and most assuredly good for reliability because I can tell you and I've said this publicly in Canada, there's been so much strike fatigue and labor fatigue that Canada's reputation on the world stage is being a reliable supply chain partner has been challenged and put in jeopardy. And I'm encouraged that those union leaders understand that. I'm encouraged that our employees understand that.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Our employees want to be treated well, paid well and be part of a success story that enables growth and prosperity for their families as well as our customers. And we're at a place now pending the ratification of those agreements. We're going to have an award from Capa on the TCRC. I see a 2025 with a positive outcome from those ratification votes with no work stoppages. We have labor reliability.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

What a refreshing thing to be able to say not only to Mark, he's saying you best refreshing, but to John, go sell this business to the customer. It's going to be a fluid railroad. It's a success enabler. Help them win in their market so we can win with them. That's a pretty good place to be, Steve.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And I in all honesty, it hasn't been this way across the board for some time. And the last thing I'll say about that from a reliability standpoint, the terms of those agreements are 4 year terms. They're not short year terms. So we're talking about 4 years of labor stability with a clean platform and slate for nothing but positive railroading and growth. And I think that's a great place to be in especially in light of 2024.

[Steve Hansen, Managing Director & Equity Analyst at Raymond James Financial]

That's exciting. Appreciate the time.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thanks, Steve.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from Daniel Imbro with Stephens Inc. Please go ahead.

[Daniel Imbro, Managing Director at Stephens Inc]

Yes. Hey, good evening, everybody. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe to follow-up on earlier topics, you mentioned in the script you're well ahead on synergy capture, you have line of sight into some more opportunities. I think you mentioned 2% to 3% extra growth or growth this year from synergies.

[Daniel Imbro, Managing Director at Stephens Inc]

But can you just expand on what's running better than planned? Where you see these opportunities maybe increasing? And then while not providing a more formal outlook, should these top line and cost synergies continue into 'twenty six and beyond? Should we expect that there is more than you initially thought? Or are we just finding the synergies earlier in the process? Thanks.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes, Daniel, this is John. So I'd say, first of all, the opportunity pipeline we identified at Investor Day hasn't let up. I feel really good about what's out there. And I think, hence, you've seen us deliver on that. And you're right, we are ahead of where we thought we were going to be at this point in the journey.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I think we are pretty open around closing out 2024 in excess of 800,000,000 dollars type run rate. And I'm super pleased we've delivered and a little bit beyond that. As I think about 2025, I see no reason with what I have teed up out there and the team has teed up out there that we can't deliver another $300,000,000 on top of that. And it's across really all the lines of business and that's what makes this unique and frankly fun. I'm just thinking about, as I said, we've got a lot of success in our automotive business.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

But I'm going to tell you, we're still early to mid innings on that. And I see a number of opportunities that exist not only with the OEMs in leveraging some of the capacity in new routes that we've added, but also in the auto parts side of that. We've just kind of scratched the surface there. I already talked about our MMX service and the growth that Schneider has seen on our franchise, but I fully expect that to continue. And we really haven't been able yet to develop because we're waiting on the Americold facility in Kansas City, our reefer business.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And as you recall, that's a significant opportunity we laid out at Investor Day that is really targeted at a market that's dominated by trucks. So now you take the combination of our facility in Kansas City, our route into Atlanta, our route and facility with Americold that they will work on in 2025 in Mexico combined with the new facility in Port of St. John and creates this ecosystem that we've talked about in the reefer space that again we really haven't scratched the surface on that yet. And then maybe the other piece that I think worth mentioning and I say this because it helps lends itself to that future that you spoke to and sort of how long these opportunities are out there for. I talked about in my remarks the new facility with aluminum dynamics in Columbus, Mississippi and also down in Mexico.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

That is an opportunity with both of those that are going to open up in the end of or middle of Q3 of this year that are not only going to present sort of base railroad new opportunities in the steel and aluminum side of the business for us, but also tremendous synergies linking some of our production in Canada and also our production in Mexico up into the U. S. So, I'm excited about that. And then maybe last, the team and more to come on this, but the team has worked hard in the Dallas market to continue to develop our relationships with the customers in that area. And we've got a number of transload facilities currently in that market, but I think the opportunity to expand ourselves and our footprint there.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So I'm excited about that. Again, that'll be a more of a second half of this year story, but one I think that lends itself into linking these franchises in 3 countries and delivering more goods in and out of the fastest growing really U. S. City in the United States. So I hope that provides a little color or more color.

[Daniel Imbro, Managing Director at Stephens Inc]

Yes. Appreciate all the detail. Best of luck.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. Please go ahead.

[Thomas Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Yes, good afternoon. So I think you've Nadeem, you talked a bit about inflation easing a bit. I think you also mentioned pricing outlook is constructive. I don't know, maybe if that's kind of similar to the 4% to 5% similar to last year. How do you think about the pace of OR improvement and kind of are we getting to like 58%, 59% and then I guess if you say beyond 25% that sets up pretty well, do you think that keeps going that there's kind of a runway for further 100 basis points a year or something like that or is there kind of slows down a bit when you get to 57%, 58%.

[Thomas Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

So I guess you're really looking for some OR comments. Thank you.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Sure. So I mean, obviously, we're coming off 57% in Q4. There is some seasonality, of course, as you know, in Q1 and especially up north. And then you've got some compensation incentive compensation accruals and you've got you don't have this much capital work available in Q1. So there is sensitivity around that.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

But that being said, we had a really challenging Q1 a year ago. And it's a much more conducive operating environment. So I think there's more snow in Florida than we've had in Calgary this year. So overall, I think it's supportive to seeing continued some benefits as far as the OR year over year in Q1. I think if you think about all the one offs we had a year ago, as someone described, death by 1,000 cuts with all the stoppages and outages and casualty costs, etcetera.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So we're not planning on those occurring. You're always going to have something, but not to that extent. So I think there's some opportunities on that front. So I certainly see to your point on pricing above inflation and just operating execution, Mark and execution, Mark and team running continually improving the network velocity and productivity across the network, Mexico in particular, that's all going to be supportive of operating leverage. We start getting the volume that we're talking about, bringing that to the bottom line.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I think we can see that sub-sixty percent operating ratio again. And then if you factor in going forward, we've talked about 100 basis point type of improvement as part of our Investor Day. And that's just, again, operating more effectively, always continuous improvements. That's kind of a cornerstone of how Keith has taught us to lead in this organization. And so 100 basis points over time each year should be the goal and should be a product of the outcome of running efficiently and safely.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And as far as long term goal, I mean, I'll leave that for you. Let's get sub-sixty first and then we'll go from there.

[Thomas Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Okay, great. Thank you.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thanks, Sal.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thanks, Sal.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Walter Spracklin, Equity Research Managment & Co-Head of Global Industrials Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Yeah. Thanks very much, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. I want to come to automotive. You've seen a really strong growth in your automotive component in 2024.

[Walter Spracklin, Equity Research Managment & Co-Head of Global Industrials Research at RBC Capital Markets]

Just curious now as going forward, do you see potential tariffs is impacting your business there? And I know Wiley has been a big part of your growth in automotive. Do you have any perspectives that you can share with us on the Norfolk Southern purchase option in the Wiley terminal?

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Right. I'll take a shot at the what my view is on the Wiley option and I'll let John maybe touch on the tariffs now on the other side, Walter. I think just for perspective, so everyone understands what we're talking about. Back in 2006 when the Meridian LLC was created in partnership with KCS and NNS, there was an option to purchase the Dallas Intermodal Terminal, which at that time was a place called Zaca Junction that was conceptualized and baked into the agreement. It was a one time, 1 year window that opened up in 'twenty four that closes in April of this year.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

It's a one and done kind of thing to purchase just that terminal. Now it's important to understand that it's just that terminal. So many of you have been to our Wadley terminal where we opened up our new automotive terminal. It's adjacent to the intermodal terminal, opposite side of the mainline. We got about a 500 acre footprint.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

It's about 90 some odd acres of the 500. Essentially, that's it. So if it were to be purchased, if they were to exercise the option, it essentially, lack of a better term, is an island. Today, we own it, we operate it. They're the customer.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

They pay a slip rate for their agent. If they buy it, we take their money. They've got to pay a fair price. That's all kind of worked out in the agreement. We can redeploy the capital and make money with it and we become the customer and we're treated in a fair and equitable way the same way we treat them today.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So to me, it's nothing to be concerned about at all. Because truly the true value of it is, it's how you package and how you create the total value for the customer. Because standalone, if you think about it historically and this is the way I look at things, the facts are that was not a big growth engine for NS and KCS. For whatever reason, you go back and look at the data and I went back as far as 2018, number 1, 95% of the business originates or terminates outside of that terminal. It was coming from NS Origin.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So essentially with an NS terminal, it always has been an NS terminal as far as the destination standpoint. Now we've changed a little bit of that, but there's been no runaway in growth because the true competitor in that lane for that terminal, if you look at it standalone as I-twenty it's the interstate. So as the ebbs and flows go tracking capacity oversupply, undersupply rates go up, rates go down it's going to ebb and flow. So I'm not saying it doesn't have some value but the true value is when you package it with an automotive compound. And you create an ecosystem that complements this automotive closed loop system where you have the possibility now to ship automotive parts that play a role in the production of those finished vehicles that go to those auto racks that operate in that closed loop system.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And when you can do that around our entire network, the strongest automotive network that's been created in the industry, that's when you start to move the needle. So again, my guess is and I've heard the same saber rattling and I know that in NS's recent challenges with their shareholders, some of those shareholders have strong views that there's a lot of untapped or lost value there. Quite frankly, I've been doing this a long time and I hope that they can unlock it. I hope that they can unlock some growth because the reality is this railroad is built to grow with both railroads. The traffic that goes to and from on the rail is going to come over our route.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We control it, we dispatch it. It's going to go perhaps in this case to their island, which they share with us and have to serve us in. So we're going to compete to that island. We're going to work hard with NS as well as with their competitor in the East to grow from the Southeast markets into the Dallas markets, in the Triangle down to the Mexican markets. So I hope that if they do buy it, Walter, that they're motivated and they want to grow.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I hope that they do what they haven't done in the past because guess what, we get to be part of that and we'll work closely with them. And at the same time, whether they do or they don't, one thing you can bet your money on, this on trade renewal team, these hunters that we have and John's marketing team are going to work closely with all strategic partners, be it Schneider, be it CSX, be it any other players who wants to bring traffic to the table to take trucks off the road and to utilize this unique network to leverage that triumph. We're going to grow into Dallas. We're going to go into Mexico. We're going to go Mexico into the Southeast in a very unique way.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So again, one of those things if they do. If they do, shake their hand, we'll take their money, we'll redeploy it, we'll make a great return with the sizable amount of money they're going to have to pay us to buy it out and we'll still compete against them and partner with them. Nothing changes. We still grow. We still net net we're in a beautiful position of strength however that shakes out.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Walter, so just a couple of comments maybe on the first part of your question, but I would maybe start by just emphasizing Keith's comments. The real growth across that Meridian Speedway and into the Southeast is in and out of Mexico.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And it is an untapped lane. It's speedway and our route with both those carriers can compete every day against trucks when it's marketed and sold the right way. And also the amount of vehicles that are being short seized out of Mexico and customers looking for solutions against that is going to be also a big part of that growth over that railroad. As you think about the tariffs, and again, we're staying very close to the OEMs. I'm looking at the opportunities we have in 2025 and 2026 in very much isolation right now relative to a lot of the tariff talk and we're laser focused with those folks on delivering solutions. The fact of the matter is we've had significant uptake in this product because it's giving these customers a world class product that frankly they have not enjoyed from other routes. And they can count on the car supply and that matters. So, I have a lot of conviction that we'll continue to deliver these opportunities and projects.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And look, at the end of the day, North American sales are what they are. They're 16000000, 17000000 vehicles a year. The reality is the U. S. Has production capability as we sit here today, maybe 10,000,000 of that.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

The demand to fulfill the need in the United States for vehicles has got to come from somewhere. And whether it's the European markets, the Mexican markets, the Canadian markets, we're going to be there to provide a solution. And that's what we're going to continue to be laser focused on.

[Walter Spracklin, Equity Research Managment & Co-Head of Global Industrials Research at RBC Capital Markets]

That's fantastic. Appreciate the color. Yes.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thank you, Walter.

[Operator]

Thank you. And your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Hey, thanks. Afternoon, guys. A couple of things, really big carload RTM spread in 2024. How are you thinking about that this year? And then maybe, Keith, longer term on the operating ratio, I totally get Nadeem's point, let's get to sub-sixty percent and then we'll sort of figure out where we go.

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

But when we started this journey, we were thinking mid-50s, even some people may be thinking low-50s on OR. Is that just the wrong way to think about where we can go over time? Or is that still somewhat over time still in the cards?

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Well, let me I'll take the first part of that, Scott. I hadn't envisioned the low-50s number. Again, the operating ratio was an outcome. So if we grow the revenue the right way and continue to run a fluid railroad and we get to the potential of this network over time beyond that 20 28 timeframe, is low 50s a possibility? Sure it is.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I'm not planning for it, but yes, it's within the realm of possibility. But as far as the other guidelines that you're talking about, that path to that double nickel is something that is certainly real. Now there's a lot of uncertainty between now and then. We've got volatility in the marketplace. But again, unless things get really crazy, we do a good job.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We continue to execute the way we're executing. We grow with our customers strategically. We don't oversubscribe the network. This thing this network is built to run very efficiently, do it at a low cost sustainable way and produce not only strong industry leading earnings growth, but at industry best, if not industry best OR.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And Scott, if I could just make a comment on it as well. Yes. When you think about things we do in operating, we have our meeting once a year at the end of the quarter, Q4 and we pull out double digit 1,000,000 of dollars within the operating department to sign up for certain things to reduce costs. Those are the things that we add to the operating ratio to drop it. And if I think about just deploying your capital, I'll tell you, when you look at some of the metrics that's happening in Mexico today with double digit speed increases, all of this is because we're deploying the capital in the right bottleneck areas to get the locals off the mainline, so trains can travel down the main, we can switch to customer, we can be satisfied with customer satisfaction, but also get everything we need with fuel efficiency off these locomotives, heavier trains, longer trains, we don't have to start and stop.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And then when we talk about deploying capital, it's the new locomotives that we'll bring on board this year, very fuel efficient. And again, on the fuel of excellence that we have, what we deployed on the Deane's team is just bringing the cash register with some of the fuel efficiency we're getting. And those are the things that are bringing down. I mean, we're exceptional right now what we're doing with savings of dwell with locomotives in Mexico.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes, I think you're being modest. Scott, I'll share it with you just to kind of sneak peek here. If I look at legacy KCSM and CPKC network, year over year, raw network speeds improved 22%, DWELL 8%, GGNs for operating horsepower almost 24%, car miles per car day almost 13%. And that's without the full benefit of the 6 that I call productivity infrastructure projects that we executed in 2024 that literally have just came online towards the end of the year. So things are moving more fluidly.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

The culture is evolving. We've got a tremendous amount of pride. We're driving capacity. We're becoming better railroaders every day. The art of the possible in Mexico, it's such an untapped diamond in the rough that is evolving every day to become better and better.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And I say all those improvements, if you look at like GTMs for operating horsepower, our standard legacy CP, we want to go close to 200 is the number. That number with 23% improvement is still at an 80%. Now will ever get it to 200? No, because there's a lot of industrial work, the length of the front aren't the same. The mix is different.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

But think about if we just improve it from 80 to 120 and the number of locomotives we use in Mexico and as we grow the number of locomotives will continue to increasingly use in Mexico. So it's exciting. And again, Mark's being modest. It's a lot of hard work to get it done. But to pull in the right levers, to open the right culture, making the right investments strategically.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And these are the outcomes. And when you do that, you control your costs and bring it right to the bottom line and however you want to measure it, it's pretty impressive on the operating ratio side and on the earnings growth side.

[Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thanks, Scott.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please go ahead.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director & Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. Maybe for Keith or Mark, I mean, you guys have gone through a lot of labor agreements now. Is there any harmonization that you're like seeking to achieve here longer term between Mexico, the U. S.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director & Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

And Canada? And are you working towards some of those longer term productivity goals on these contracts?

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

I would say for the U. S, we would be looking at engineering how we can deploy capital gains throughout the year instead of having to reduce forces in the winter months, that's for sure. Obviously, we're still negotiating some of the hourly agreements on the KCS property. We'll work through those over the coming year, but certainly some things that we're doing in that space. When I look at Canada, obviously, we're still going back and forth with TCRC, actually start back conversations next week.

[Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And then I think Keith touched on it earlier down in Mexico. I mean, it's we just can't change overnight. There's going to be incremental change that we have each year that will help us with the locomotive, size of train, fuel optimization, all of that type of stuff. And it's just going to take time in that space. But there is upside to it for sure.

[Brandon Oglenski, Director & Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays]

Thank you.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thank you.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from Kevin Chiang with CIBC. Please go ahead.

[Kevin Chiang, Director - Institutional Equity Research at CIBC World Markets]

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I guess I was just wondering when you think of tariffs and maybe what that means for the energy patch here in Canada, I think that the view is that could result in a widening of differentials. Just wondering how you might think that plays out for your crude by rail franchise as those potentially widen out if we do get tariffs this weekend?

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Well, I think so far, Kevin, what we've seen is the uncertainty has created a little bit more of a narrowing and looking at some of our customers in the U. S. Looking for alternatives. Now, we'll see maybe some certainty bring some opportunity back or allows the market to sort of settle out and think about it differently. Now the other interesting thing is we've seen it spur more in bond type shipments and more folks looking at opportunities from Canada all the way down to Mexico as a potential alternative or growth area, separate than the United States.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So right now, I think the uncertainty has hurt the markets a little bit. We'll see what the numbers and how the tariffs end up looking and certainly adapt and adjust from there for that space.

[Kevin Chiang, Director - Institutional Equity Research at CIBC World Markets]

That's great color. Thank you, John.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

All right. Thanks, Kevin.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Hey, great. Good afternoon. Congrats on a great to see industry leading 57 OR. But it did include harsh winter weather at the end of the quarter and strike at ports, I guess, which really impacted. So, Nadeem, I guess, can we go a little short term?

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

It sounded you might have touched on this earlier, but is there a normalization beyond what you've already removed or thoughts on the cost impact for the quarter as we think about that sequential 4Q to 1Q transition versus normal seasonality? And then a minor question, does the 12% to 18% growth target include the buyback already in there? Or is that incremental to the target?

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes. So I'd say that part of giving the range, Ken, is to factor in that a buyback is in the target is in the guide, which is depending on when the timing of that buyback because obviously the later in the year you get a buyback, the less of an impact it will have in 2025, it will have more of an impact in 2026. So I'll just say this that we do have somewhat of a buyback embedded in the guidance. It's not going to have a meaningful necessarily impact. And obviously, it's going to be dependent on number of shares we do for the July 1 effectively before you can get a benefit, especially with interest rates and so forth. So, some modest benefit in the 12% to 18%. We didn't the 57.1%, it could have been better.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes, absolutely. We had the impact of the strike. It impacted some costs associated with that. Whether we're in Northern Railroad, so we do deal with weather and Mark and team were able to overcome near term challenges. So we're not going to make excuses on weather, save that for tomorrow, I guess.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And then as far as what I'd say is sequential OR, it's typically about 300 basis points, 400 basis points is what I'd factor in. And there's some puts and takes with stock based comp timing. So we had a benefit in Q4 of stock based comp. And so that was a tailwind to us, probably have a headwind this quarter. So factor in that as well when you think about quarterly ORs.

[Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America]

Very helpful. Appreciate the time. Thanks.

[Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Thanks, Ken.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from Ari Rosa with Citi. Please go ahead.

[Ariel Rosa, Senior Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.]

Hi, good afternoon. So you guys mentioned the MME offering several times. I just wanted to get a sense for where that is in terms of the rollout of that kind of levels of customer receptivity, the levels of competition you've seen from depressed truck pricing and where that maybe could go in 2025 and the kind of support it could provide to intermodal volume growth? Thanks.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Yes, Ari, I think it's significant part of the story. I'm super pleased with where we sit today, but you're right, it's been against the backdrop of a pretty tough market, well, really tough market out there. To give you some perspective, we grew about 12% Q3 to Q4. Year over year, I think we're up about 33% when you kind of back out some of that short haul business that are actually lapping right now. So, I'm pleased with how we've the team has grown it, but we've got a lot of there's a lot of opportunity left on that train to not only fill it up, but also how we begin to high grade it and really maximize the value of that.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

And then look, we've been candid relative to the new route over to the CSX that we saw the opportunity for a train a day in that corridor. And as Keith spoke about, the narrative with customers change when you can sit down and have a discussion around a route, the fastest route in the marketplace between Chicago and Central Mexico, but then you also layer in into Atlanta and Charlotte and some of those Southeast markets. We're super excited about what that brings to the table also. And then even finally beyond that, the upside relative to the reefer business. And again, we've just started to scratch the surface in that product.

[John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

So a lot of opportunity yet to come in the MMX.

[Operator]

Thank you. And we have reached our allotted time for Q and A. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Keith Creel.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

Okay. Thank you, operator. Listen, let me close by again thanking each of you for taking the time to let us share results and share our story. I think we all understand there's no shortage of uncertainties in the world that we're navigating today. But But one thing is certain, this company has a track record and this team has a track record for managing those highs and those lows.

[Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director at Canadian Pacific Kansas City]

We're going to control what we can't control. We undoubtedly have a very unique network with unique opportunities that in spite of what the macro gives us, we're going to create something unique and special, which is going to reflect industry leading, add industry leading margins and certainly industry leading growth and most importantly industry leading earnings growth. So have a safe day. We look forward to sharing our results on our next call. Be well.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Chris de Bruyn, Vice President Capital Markets & Treasurer
• Keith Creel, CEO, President & Director
• Mark Redd, Executive VP & COO
• John Brooks, Executive VP & Chief Marketing Officer
• Nadeem Velani, Executive VP & CFO

Analysts

• Chris Wetherbee, Senior Analyst at Wells Fargo
• Fadi Chamoun, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Brian Ossenbeck, MD - Senior Analyst, Transportation at JP Morgan
• Steve Hansen, Managing Director & Equity Analyst at Raymond James Financial
• Daniel Imbro, Managing Director at Stephens Inc
• Thomas Wadewitz, Senior Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group
• Walter Spracklin, Equity Research Managment & Co-Head of Global Industrials Research at RBC Capital Markets
• Scott Group, MD & Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research
• Brandon Oglenski, Director & Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays
• Kevin Chiang, Director - Institutional Equity Research at CIBC World Markets
• Ken Hoexter, Managing Director at Bank of America
• Ariel Rosa, Senior Analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc.