Dover Q4 2024 Earnings Results & Report

Dover EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.20
• Consensus EPS: $2.20
• Beat/Miss: Met Expectations
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A
• EPS Beat Rate: 7 of last 8 quarters

Dover Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.90 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.95 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$46.95 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Dover (NYSE:DOV) is a diversified manufacturer of equipment and components for industrial and commercial markets. Founded in 1955, the company has grown through a combination of product development and acquisitions and serves customers around the world.

Dover’s businesses operate across areas including engineered products, clean energy and fueling, imaging and identification, pumps and process solutions, and climate and sustainability technologies. Its products include fueling and vehicle-service equipment, pumps and fluid-handling systems, packaging and marking equipment, and components used in industrial and commercial applications.

The company serves a broad range of end markets, including manufacturing, transportation, energy, food and beverage, and retail. Its portfolio brings together specialized businesses that provide equipment and services to customers across multiple geographies.

Dover Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Management highlighted 4 out of 5 segments delivered positive organic growth in Q4, with 7% organic bookings growth and segment margins rising by 60 basis points to 22.2%, supporting Q4 adjusted EPS growth of 14% and full-year EPS up 8%.
• The company generated $429 million in free cash flow in Q4 (22% of revenue) and 13.5% for the full year, reinforcing the outlook for 14–16% free cash flow conversion in 2025 despite higher capex for growth investments.
• Dover closed two bolt-on acquisitions in its Pumps & Process Solutions segment and ended 2024 with a strong cash position, underpinning plans for disciplined capital deployment into high-growth, high-margin segments through organic and inorganic investments.
• For 2025, Dover expects double-digit EPS growth driven by accretive top-line momentum, margin expansion from product mix and restructuring benefits, and continued portfolio strength, while absorbing heightened FX headwinds.
• Segment outlooks include Clean Energy & Fueling targeting margin leadership on robust cryogenic and fueling orders, Pumps & Process Solutions leveraging double-digit biopharma and data center thermal connector growth, and a rebound in Climate & Sustainability Technologies fueled by CO₂ refrigeration and heat exchanger demand.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning and welcome to Dover's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Speaking today are Richard Tobin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Brad Cerepak, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Jack Dickens, Vice President, Investor Relations. Also present today is Chris Winker, Dover's Segment Chief Financial Officer, who will succeed Mr. Cerepak upon his retirement at the end of the month.

[Operator]

After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, press star and then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two.

[Operator]

As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded, and your participation implies consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, please disconnect at this time. Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jack Dickens. Please go ahead, sir.

[Jack Dickens, VP of Investor Relations at Dover]

Thank you, Margo. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. An audio version of this call will be available on our website through February 20th, and a replay link of the webcast will be archived for 90 days.

[Jack Dickens, VP of Investor Relations at Dover]

Our comments today will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results and events could differ from those statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties which are discussed in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update our forward-looking statements. With that, I will turn the call over to Rich.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on page three. Overall, we are encouraged by the fourth quarter. Top-line performance was broad-based, with four out of five segments posting positive organic growth on solid underlying demand across the portfolio. Bookings were up 7% organically in the quarter, driven by robust order rates in our secular growth-exposed markets, as well as positive inflection in several end markets that had tough comps during the year.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Our booking strength validates our previous demand outlook for 2025. Segment margin performance of the quarter was solid at 22.2%, up 60 basis points over the prior year. We are quite encouraged by the product mix impact and prior period fixed cost restructuring on segment margins during the quarter. We expect this to be a precursor of the strong incremental margin performance that we expect in 2025.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Excluding the $0.25 of tax reorganization benefit to our effective tax rate in the fourth quarter of the prior year, Q4 adjusted EPS grew 14% in the quarter and was up 8% for the full year. Our operational results were complemented by our ongoing portfolio actions. We recently closed two bolt-on acquisitions within our high-priority Pumps and Process Solutions segment, and our acquisition pipeline remains robust.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We ended the year with a significant cash position that provides us flexibility as we pursue value-creating capital deployment to further expand our businesses in high-growth, high-margin priority platforms through organic investment and acquisitions. We are optimistic about 2025. Underlying demand strength has continued across the portfolio into January. We have significant runway for margin improvement through organic growth, positive mix benefits, and numerous cost and performance levers.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We have high confidence in Dover's attractive end market exposures, flexible business model, and proven execution playbook. With this backdrop, we are poised to deliver double-digit EPS growth in 2025 through a combination of accretive top-line growth, margin improvement, and value-creating capital allocation. Let's skip to slide five. Engineered Products was up 2% organically in the quarter on volume growth in vehicle service and fluid dispensing.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Aerospace and defense was lower in the period due to shipment timing, but still posted a record year on growing global demand for signal intelligence and electronic warfare solutions. Clean Energy & Fueling was up 8% organically in the quarter, led by robust order rates and shipments within cryogenic and clean energy components, as well as solid volume growth in retail fueling equipment. Our North American above-ground fueling business is methodically building back to volumes from peak EMV cycle from several years ago.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Importantly, there was notable growth inflection in mix accretive vehicle wash and below-ground retail fueling in the quarter, which had faced tough market conditions over the last two years. Margin was up 200 basis points in the quarter on positive volume leverage, attractive mix, and operational execution. We expect these trends to continue to drive margins higher in 2025. Imaging and Identification posted another solid quarter with growth in core market encoding printers, consumable services, and aftermarket parts.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Margin performance was robust as management actions on cost to serve and structural cost controls continued to drive incremental margins higher. Pumps and Process Solutions up 3% organically on robust shipments in single-use biopharma components and thermal connectors, both of which posted year-over-year bookings growth in excess of 100% in the quarter. Precision components and industrial pumps had solid results as well as forecasted.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

The long-cycle polymer processing equipment was down year-over-year in the period but was flat sequentially. Segment revenue mix drove 230 basis points of margin improvement on excellent production performance on volume growth in biopharma and thermal and margin mix benefits from the FW Murphy acquisition.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Revenue was down in the quarter in Climate & Sustainability Technologies and expected declines in European heat exchangers and beverage-making can-making equipment, which more than offset the record quarterly volume in U.S. CO2 refrigeration systems and growth in heat exchangers in the U.S. and Asia.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Our shipments of heat exchangers for heat pumps in Europe did improve sequentially in the quarter, a trend we expect to accelerate in the back half of 2025 as the end market recovers. Organic bookings were up 16% in the quarter with positive booking momentum across each operating business, with particular strength in CO2 systems. I'll pass it to Brad here.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thanks, Rich. Good morning, everyone. Let's go to our cash flow statement on slide six. Adjusting for taxes paid on the gains on dispositions, which are non-operational in nature, our free cash flow was $429 million in the quarter, or 22% of revenue. Our fourth quarter was our highest cash flow quarter of the year in line with historical trends.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

We are pleased with our full-year adjusted free cash flow generation, which came in at 13.5% of revenue within our guidance range, despite carrying large accounts receivable balances at the year-end. That will be a credit to early 2025 cash generation. Our guidance for 2025 free cash flow is 14%-16% of revenue on strong conversion of operating cash flow. We are forecasting slightly higher CapEx in 2025 on several growth investments. With that, I'll turn it back to Rich.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks. I'm on slide seven. Here we provide a little more detail on the bookings momentum in the fourth quarter. Q4 marked our fifth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year bookings growth, posting a book-to-bill above one. As shown in the segment detail on the right, the bookings rates were broad-based with particular strength in our secular growth-exposed markets, providing a strong foundation as we move into 2025.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Slide eight highlights several end markets that were driving our consolidated organic growth forecast. Between end market data, our customer forecasts, and our own booking rates, we are encouraged with the outlook in the broader industrial gas complex within clean energy and precision components, single-use biopharma components, CO2 refrigeration systems, and inputs into liquid cooling applications of data centers, which include our connectors as well as heat exchangers.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We have made significant organic and inorganic investment behind these end markets, which will continue to prioritize into 2025. In aggregate, these markets now account for 20% of our portfolio and drive attractive margin accretion on expected double-digit growth rates. Moving to slide nine, we expect Engineered Products to grow low single digits organically on sustained strong orders and shipments within aerospace and defense, which should be levered to the second half of the year due to the timing of government programs.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

With the divestitures of Destaco and Environmental Solutions Group in 2024, our Engineered Products segment now accounts for roughly 15% of our total portfolio, down from 25% in the prior year. We are optimistic about the growth outlook in clean energy and fueling, which should return to positive volume growth due to strength in clean energy components, fluid transport, and above-ground fueling.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We expect this segment to be among the leaders in margin accretion in 2025 on volume leverage, positive mix from below-ground fueling. Additionally, we can expect additional carryover of multi-year restructuring actions and acquisition integration benefits, which will primarily accrue in the second half of the year.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We expect Imaging & ID to continue its long-term steady growth trajectory, given its significant recurring revenue base and solid demand profile across all geographies. Management has done yeoman's work to improve the margin here through productivity and structural cost controls, and we believe there are multiple years ahead of continued margin accretion.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Underlying demand trends across Pumps & Process Solutions remain solid. Shipments of single-use biopharma components should continue their double-digit growth rate driven by production growth in blockbuster drugs and the emergence of novel technologies such as cell and gene therapies and the continued secular shift towards single-use manufacturing.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

The outlook for thermal connectors for liquid cooling data centers is robust. Our preemptive capacity expansion has allowed us to maintain industry-best lead times in what has turned out to be a short-cycle business. Our precision components business is directly levered to energy complex investments, so we are quite interested to see how that plays out in 2025.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Finally, climate & sustainability technology should recover well as difficult comps roll off in heat exchangers and beverage can making. With the recent launch of our high-capacity platform and CO2 refrigeration systems, we have the broadest product offering in the industry.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We are currently taking orders well into the second half of 2025 and should continue to grow at double-digit rate due to the broad-based adoption among national retailers. Heat exchangers are expected to grow as European heat pump channel inventories have been largely depleted.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We are forecasting sustained growth in North American heat exchangers. We have completed a capacity expansion for large-format production driven in part by liquid cooling applications in data centers. Let me finish up on slide 10. Our guidance this year is a bit unique since we provided preliminary outlook for 2025 during last quarter's earnings release, which we felt was necessary given the significant portfolio moves completed in Q4.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Our 2025 guidance is in line with that preliminary outlook from a quarter ago in terms of organic revenue and EPS growth, with the underlying building blocks intact. There has only been one noteworthy change from last quarter, which is heightened foreign exchange translation headwind from the strengthening U.S. dollar.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

While this incremental headwind, which is by no means unique to Dover, we are confident in holding our full-year guide due to the positive and broad-based bookings momentum we had during the year. So pretty much we're going to eat everything that we saw when we ran from October to January in terms of FX, which is not a little bit. We enter 2025 in advantageous cash position.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Our preference is to deploy capital towards organic growth investments and our inorganic growth pipeline, which has improved in both quantity and quality of opportunities over the last several months. Rest assured, we will proceed with the capital discipline that we have demonstrated in the past. Finally, before we move to Q&A, I'd like to take a moment to recognize and congratulate Brad on his retirement.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Since joining Dover over 15 years ago, he has been an instrumental strategic and financial leader who has helped transform Dover to our current operating structure today. I'm sure Brad couldn't think of a better send-off than to spend his last days preparing for this earnings call. On behalf of all of us, thank you, and we wish you all the best.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you for that, Rich. Much appreciated. It has been absolutely a pleasure to work with you, the entire Dover team, our board, and of course, the finance organization for so many years. Chris Winker will take it from here, and I wish him the very best. Okay, I think we can go to Q&A here, Jack.

[Operator]

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star two. We ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. And we'll now take our first question from Stephen Tusa with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Hey, good morning.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Hi, good morning.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Brad, congrats and thanks for all the help over the years.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

You've definitely seen a lot there, a lot of change. So congrats on the run. The slide last quarter talked about 40% conversion and $25 million of restructuring benefits. This slide says 40% plus. Are you still assuming the $25 million of restructuring benefits? And I don't know, there's a lot of up arrows on that margin slide. So just maybe help calibrate us a bit on the margin drivers and price cost.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Sure. The restructuring benefit hasn't changed. As I mentioned last quarter, we've got some more in the pipe, and when we do it, we'll give you the roll-forward benefit of it, which is not embedded into our forecast presently.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

The balance of it is mix, so if you look at the margin accretion that we saw in Q4, I think it's a pretty good precursor of what we can expect, and then we'll see from there, then it's just a question of kind of the volume that we see, so right now, we're going to stick to the 40%. I don't see that going up on a percentage basis. It would be more tied to, are we underestimating the revenue growth potential in 2025? Bookings look great, but let's see. Let's get through a quarter or two.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Got it. And price cost? What do you guys assume for price on the year? And will that spread be positive?

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

It will be positive. Not a lot either way in terms of benefit, maybe a point, point and a half. We'll see. It depends on the mix that we get, but it will be positive.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot. Thanks again, Brad. Congrats.

[Operator]

Thank you. And next, we'll take a question from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Thanks. Good morning. Brad, I'm sure you're going to get a lot of congratulations and all that. But you've been at Dover for a long time. You've been the one sort of constant for the last 15 years. So it's quite a moment here. So congratulations.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you. Thank you so much.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

No, no. So, Rich, you mentioned January. And whenever you mentioned sort of within the current period, it always sparks a bit of attention. I'm just curious if you think that tariffs or the potential for tariffs is causing any sort of unusual behavior around the supply chain that you touch.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

No, we don't see it. I mean, we're generally speaking a proximity manufacturer. So our backlogs are more influenced on the lead times of the individual products, which are kind of all over the place between the short cycle and the long cycle. But no, we don't see any let's get in front of this because we think that there's going to be tariffs. We have a few businesses that are global in nature, but the vast majority of it is proximity.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Okay. Okay. And then just a quick question on the margin outlook. You mentioned CEF is going to be the margin leader. I'm just curious if we could just maybe just if I could just ask if a 20% plus handle would be reasonable there, just based on what we saw this quarter. And then similar vein with DPPS, just given the exit rate, would a 30 handle be reasonable for this year?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Look, I think that the absolute change in margin we would expect in DCEF, okay, we are driving at the segment level in excess of 20%. All right? You may not get it every quarter depending on the cyclicality of it, but clearly at an exit rate in excess of 20%. On DPPS, it's all about the mix.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

So if we're undercalling biopharma and we get better results there, then clearly they will mix up. But if precision components do better, it's a little bit dilutive, but it's still at 25% margin, so we'll take it all day long. So it's more a question of what we get in terms of mix going from here.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Okay. Fair enough. Thanks, Rich.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll next go to Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Good morning, everyone.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Hi, Andy.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Brad, thanks for all your help. Congrats.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you. Thank you.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Book-to-bill over one again in Q4. You're thinking 25 is another year where all or most of your quarters could achieve book-to-bill at or over one. And I know you're expecting an inflection in CO2 orders. It looks like you got that. And you mentioned the double-digit expected growth in that business is expected to continue. But given recovery in other DCST businesses, at least in terms of orders, it seems like you expect DCST bookings momentum to continue. Maybe you can comment on that specifically?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yeah. I mean, I would expect based on our growth rate, we'll hover around one. I mean, I don't think we get all excited if it's 0.98 one quarter. But we should hover around one for the year, and then we'll make a call on Q4 as we exit. Yeah. I mean, we did get some bookings in Q4 in CO2 systems. We've got a lot coming our way. So I would expect bookings to look good there, coupled with the fact maybe not in Q1, but as we go into Q2, we'll inflect positive in bookings in heat exchangers. So that will help in terms of the.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Guy, can you give us a little more color into how you think about earnings cadence through the year? It seems like we start out pretty slowly in terms of organic growth in Q1. Given DCST and DP could start slowly in terms of growth, but more color on Q1 and the trajectory for the rest of the year would be helpful.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yeah. I mean, I'll go back to now that we're beyond kind of all the COVID stuff, and we'll go back to start off a little slowly. We'll probably build a bunch of inventory in Q1. We'll recognize those revenues in Q2 and Q3. And then Q4, like every other year, we'll decide on the outlook of 2025 how we run production. But we'll make those decisions in the August, September timeframe. So yeah, I mean, I think that quarter to quarter will look okay. But I mean, it will be a ramp into Q2 and Q3.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Appreciate the color.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you, and we're next going to take our next question fromJoe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Hey, guys. Good morning, and Brad, thanks so much. Wishing you nothing but the best.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Maybe let's just hone my questions in on DCST. Rich, maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in that European heat pump market, now expecting growth in 2025. I think you maybe mentioned inventories have also stabilized there. Just give us some color on what you're seeing there.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Well, I mean, the margin performance that you see for us in Q4 is us basically underproducing severely. So it was a willful attempt to force inventory clearing out of the channel. But having said that, orders inflected positively. Let's not get excited off of some pretty low level. So I would say that we did our part to allow inventory to clear.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

And just sequentially, orders are coming up. It's probably still got a bad comp in Q1. But then from there, we would expect to ramp over the balance of the year. What that ramp looks like, we're taking our best estimates right now. As you know, getting good data out of our own customers has been quite difficult. But we would expect, I think, that we've got a prudent outlook for it. And hopefully, it gets sequentially better over the year.But what we're confident about is we took some direct action to allow inventory to clear in the back half of the year.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Got it. That makes a lot of sense, so as you think about then kind of the right starting point for margins for that segment, so given that you took that big hit in the fourth quarter, how do you think about then the margin trajectory in 2025? It would seem like you should get some pretty good margin expansion in that business.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yeah. I mean, once we lap Q1, Q1 is always a little bit messy because in traditional refrigeration equipment, it's not a heavy shipment month. We tend to build inventory there as opposed to shipping it. And as I said, SWEP and heat exchangers has probably got a tough comp there.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Having said all that, we were very pleased with the margin that we got, the exit margin that we got out of refrigeration. So that's what we're booking in for the balance of the year. And to the extent we underproduce so severely in heat exchangers, we have negative fixed cost absorption there. In Q4, we'd expect that to get better over time.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

So net net, if you just look through the downturn in heat exchangers, with all the progress that we made on refrigeration, we would expect that we would be maybe not at record margins because I'd have to kind of triangulate for Belvac a little bit. But some very good margins in that segment if we were to benchmark it historically.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Great to hear. Thanks, guys.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Thanks. Good morning and best of luck to Brad.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Hey, I wanted to come back to the bio orders really strong. I guess any detail in the nature of the applications you're winning and any concentration? Is there one to two customers? Is it fairly broad-based? And then how should we think about that delivery schedule?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

It is broad-based. I mean, we cleared inventory in the back half or the front half of this year, and then we started orders inflecting, I think, more or less at the end of second quarter. We don't know a lot in terms of where it ends up because there's a big portion that's sell-through from our clients at the end of the day, but I think I would categorize it as we are a supplier to in-use production and that the inventory is cleared out of the system and that those units are operating now and it's just pull-through.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Yep. Makes sense. And then, just to follow up on the liquid cooling, very strong demand again, obviously, with everything that's going on. But maybe talk about that specification process with those partners. And how large has the total addressable market for Dover grown over the last couple of years? And where do you think your share of that can run?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

It's grown significantly because it was a traditional product of ours that had been supplied into supercomputing applications. What the TAM is, is anybody's guess right now. If you go back and look at the transcript,

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

I think that we made the right decision in terms of having the product available, and we made the right decision to build out the capacity in advance of the demand because it has turned out what I would have thought to be a business that would have because of the build-out time for these data centers that you would know when the orders are coming. It's turned out to be a very short-cycle business for us. So the data that we get of where the product is going is almost at the last minute.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Now we've been a market share winner here because we've got the capacity installed to the detriment of some of the working capital, I would say, in the fourth quarter of this year, but I can't even give you TAM numbers, quite frankly. I don't think anybody knows. We'll see how it plays out, but right now, super proud of the management team in terms of how they've managed an incredibly complex situation.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Appreciate the detail.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Halloran with Baird. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Hey, good morning, everyone. Congrats, Brad. So.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Thank you.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Just another high-level question here. Just make sure I understand the cadence through the year. In an answer to the earlier questions, the thought process then, if I think about typical earnings by quarter, relatively normal or a little subdued in the first and then build it up in the back. But then related.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Are you basically assuming the underlying demand dynamics are relatively stable with current levels, not improving, not getting worse, but relatively stable in normal sequentials? Is that the thought process?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yeah. I think the sequential should be relatively stable and typically from a calendarization point of view, so that there's nothing and the mixed benefit should be relatively stable. But when we're talking about the incremental growth on the roll forward, then you're going to get most of the growth in Q2 and Q3. So it doesn't leg down and then leg up.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

It kind of just sequentially rolls forward. The mixed impact on the business should be relatively stable, right? Because if you look at the order rates, that's what we're going to be shipping out of. And then the growth that we're getting, which we'll be producing in Q1, will be shipped out in Q2 and Q3. That's our estimates right now.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Yeah. That makes sense. And then just an update on the M&A side, any change to what you're seeing from a backdrop, actionability, and the amount of content that might be in the market at some point?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yeah. Lots of stuff coming. We're really interested to see what the appetites are out there and what we'd like to see a couple of transactions to get done. There's quite a few in the pipe to see how aggressive everybody's going to be at valuation. But those are the ones everybody knows about.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

We've also got a handful of very interesting proprietary deals that we're working on. So we'll see. I mean, we're very popular in the multi-industrial world because of all the cash that we're sitting on. So we're seeing a lot. Time will tell about what multiples look like when we see a couple of transactions.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Yeah. And keep in mind that that cash on the balance sheet right now is not deployed in our forecast. It's generating nice interest income so it doesn't burn a hole in our pocket, so to speak. And when you think about your models, just keep in mind that we're sticking to our $0.50 year-over-year concept around interest income until we deploy that capital. And then you'll see a shift between the interest line and the segment performance line as we do deal flow.

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

Thanks, guys. Helpful as always.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

Hi, thanks. Good morning. And Brad, thanks for all the help. If we think about just the segment level, I wanted to start with Clean Energy and Fueling. It seemed like you did see some very encouraging signs exiting the year in below ground and vehicle wash. And as we're thinking about the 2025 guidance, maybe help us understand kind of how much of the business now is that clean energy components piece, which has sort of come together fairly recently. And how does the growth there differ this year versus the more traditional parts of DCEF?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Okay. I'm going to have to go back and look. But I would think in terms of absolute profit, it is the largest contributor year-over-year, that segment. And that's a combination of restructuring benefits, growth, mix-on-growth, and acquisitions that we had done in the prior period that actually calendarized at 12 months. Breaking it into pieces, I think that we'll let Jack take you through it. But in terms of the cryogenic component exposure, we are significantly larger than our nearest competitor.

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

That's helpful. Thank you. And then secondly, on Engineered Products, there's been a lot of changes in the business mix there, Aerospace and Defense, a bigger weighting now within DEP. And maybe remind us of kind of the main exposures there because it looks like the volumes there were down in the fourth quarter but should grow this year as a whole in DEP. Maybe kind of remind us sort of what's moving around in that and what's the visibility on that second-half improvement in the A&D shipments at DEP?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Okay. The comp was bad in Q4, and that drove the commentary, which is timing of shipments, which I think that we had some pretty big shipments in Q4 of 2023. Having said that, the business is as big as it's ever been in terms of its absolute size because we've actually been an acquirer in there. In terms of the calendarization, I'd have to go and work with Jack to see what 2025 looks like. But it is posted to grow year-over-year and having a positive margin mixed benefit on that growth.

[Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

Great. Thank you.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Founder and Managing partner at Vertical Research]

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. And congrats, Brad. Hate to admit it, but we go back to American Standard, Honeywell, Allied.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

Oh, I know. A lot of years, Jeff.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Founder and Managing partner at Vertical Research]

Almost to high school, so maybe a CFO question to start just on kind of interest income. Thanks for that color. I assume rates are a little bit more favorable on sitting on cash than maybe you thought if you were thinking about the Fed. Maybe address if that is, in fact, helpful, and then also I just wanted to clarify that guide that you're talking about is really only accounting for cash on hand. It doesn't look like you're giving yourself any credit for just the very solid free cash flow generation you're expecting in 2025.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

No, I think it's inclusive. But we have uses of that cash flow like we normally do, right? So we'll have to see. It is volatile in the sense of how many rate cuts will there be next year? We model it out. And when I say we're sticking to our year-over-year that we guided back or gave insight into in the third quarter, it is all inclusive for sure. But capital deployment will impact it, Jeff. And there's a lot of variables. So I think at this stage, give us a quarter or two to sort it out and see how deals actually flow through, and then we'll be able to give you more insight into it.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Founder and Managing partner at Vertical Research]

Great. Thanks. Hey, and Rich, on DII, just maybe a little bit more color there, right? Demand trends are giving us a solid green light, but we're growing low single digit. I'm guessing it's just sort of the fashion fabric or whatever you call that piece of the business is really still lagging and holding back the base. Is that what's going on? Maybe a little more color there?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

It's just de minimis in terms of the revenue and earnings at this point. So we're not modeling in any kind of snapback in terms of performance. Credit to the management team, the margin accretion has even lapped that business declining over the last three years through improving the profitability of the core marking and coding business.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

As I mentioned in my comments, we've got some other efficiency programs, if you will, laid in for 2025 that should help the accretion there. So let's just call it on the textile stuff. The bottoming has taken place, but it's de minimis now in terms of the earnings of the group.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Founder and Managing partner at Vertical Research]

The low single-digit growth just reflects then what's the normalization on the equipment side after a little bit of a bump in 2025?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

It will. This one's got a ton of FX in it, and it flops around between equipment and consumables. So we don't get all bent out of shape quarter to quarter. We look at this business really on a full-year basis. It grows 2%-4% at the end of the day. So I wouldn't. Intra-quarter volatility is almost meaningless.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Founder and Managing partner at Vertical Research]

Okay. Yeah. I was talking about the outlook, but good to go. I'll leave it there. Thanks a lot. Take care.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question will come from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Hi. Yes. Good morning.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Hi.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Yeah. We'll join congratulating Brad on his retirement. It was a pleasure. Thank you.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

He's still saying we when he answers the question.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

I know. I know.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

It's encouraging because paying him.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

That's good, well.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

He's going to be here through all that capital deployment.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Wow. I'm binge-watching Severance these days, so just a 25 outlook for growth in vehicle wash is much better than the commentary from peers, and I would also say above ground is turning. Do you think you're gaining share, or is it a real turn in the market, right?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

I mean, you got to be careful with the peer commentary in vehicle wash because a lot of them own distribution and operate sites. We don't. We're purely an equipment manufacturer. I think the commentary around that. It's gotten better, but it's not inflected super better. But even a little bit better on a margin point of view, it's positive.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

I think the real material inflection that we're seeing there, if we take the cryogenic side and put it aside, is the mixed impact of a couple of things. The mixed impact of below ground, which has been pretty depressed for two or three years now, which is highly margin accretive. That's good. A lot of the restructuring we did last year is in this particular segment. So that's where the flow through comes in, which is good.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

And then the cryogenic piece, as we talked about at length in the end of Q3, that we are going to go through a big integration year here and expect to get the integration benefits of those prior period acquisitions probably levered towards the second half of this year. So it's got a lot of kind of non-revenue benefit underlying it. And number one, and number two, mix is improving.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Excellent. Thank you for the expansive answer. And just a simple follow-up question. Do you think that business can double this year given sort of the underlying growth in liquid cooling?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

I mean, double relative to what, right? With biopharma?

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Relative to 2024. Yeah. No, just sorry. Just the liquid cooling part. Sorry. Just the data center part.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Liquid cooling part.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Yeah. The data center part. Sorry.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Could it? Yes. Will it? We'll see. As I mentioned before, it's just turned out to be such a short-cycle business that we've got a view of maybe 45 days in terms of the demand cycle. So we'll see. But could it? Yes.

[Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you. It's good to have happy, optimistic Rich back. Thank you.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Yep.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

Hey. Good morning, guys. And congrats. I'm sure you're going to miss that flight out on Monday morning or Sunday night or whatever to Chicago. But I spent some frequent flyer miles our way, I guess. You probably have plenty. But anyways, I think you guys have covered most of the terrain here.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

It's been a lot of minutiae too. But if we back up a little bit, is the refrigeration story just about CO2 in '25, or is it really also just about pent-up demand that there was. It's been a pretty long period, I think, of underinvestment from a lot of your customers. Is that a correct assessment?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

I think that's a correct assessment, but recall that we have capped our capacity in that particular segment. So it's more for us margin performance through productivity plus CO2.We're not going to chase dilutive growth on the retail refrigeration side.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Between the CO2 product offering and the specialty product offering, we'll take as much as we can get there. On the case business, we'll see. We're in early innings now about the CO2 transformation of whether you can bundle the CO2 system with the case and what does that mean for margins.I think that is something that will unfold during 2025.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

Okay. Fair enough. Then just a small question. I guess I've never asked this before, but if you had to split up your CapEx between kind of maintenance and growth, how would you think about what kind of that base level of maintenance CapEx is in the numbers?

[Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan]

That's a good question. We used to give out a pie chart on that. I'm guessing that it's 40 maintenance, but that does not include IT and 60 growth. And if I had to carve out IT, I'd have to get back to you, Scott.

[Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research]

Okay. Good color. Thank you, guys. Best of luck this year, all right?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. And our last question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Deane Dray, Managing Director at RBC Capital]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I get to do the last congrats to Brad, and wish you and your family all the best. You and I also go way back.

[Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO at Dover]

I know we do.

[Deane Dray, Managing Director at RBC Capital]

Hey. Maybe we just start, Rich, on the two bolt-on deals. How did those come about? Where do they fit? What's kind of the attraction there? And how much of that pipeline that you're looking at fits that category?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

They're both proprietary. One is going to Pumps and Process Solutions, and both of them are going to—oh, yeah, yeah. Right. And they're both proprietary. One is cryogenics, but it actually ends up in our pumps business. The other business is a product line expansion for plastics and polymers for Maag. And that one, I think we've been working on for three years or so.

[Deane Dray, Managing Director at RBC Capital]

All right. Good to hear on that. And then data center came up a whole lot in the Q&A prepared remarks in your slides. My guess is those were already written prior to the Monday selloff. And Rich, you've already said your short-cycle business. It's 45 days.

[Deane Dray, Managing Director at RBC Capital]

So you're probably not looking any further out than that. But just in terms of managing this business, do you feel like there's any sea change in terms of data center CapEx? And I know you can't size the TAM, but is the TAM potentially getting smaller and more competition? Just kind of how might the competitive dynamics have changed since Monday?

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

I don't know. I mean, the fact of the matter is, in terms of the total TAM, we're a rounding error. We think that we've got a very good product that we have IP protected. I think that we were first in line in terms of buildi

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

ng out the capacity, and that's pretty much what's driven the volume growth that we've seen. I think we've been pretty prudent in terms of sizing the business.

[Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO at Dover]

So we're not looking at the billions and billions of dollars and trying to do the mathematics of gigawatts to connectors. I mean, many have tried. All have failed. So I'm not overly worried about it. At the end of the day, I think there's enough kind of shovels in the ground that makes us feel comfortable with our 2025 forecast.

[Deane Dray, Managing Director at RBC Capital]

Excellent. I appreciate that, Caller. Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. That concludes our question and answer period of Dover's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

Participants

Executives

• Jack Dickens, VP of Investor Relations
• Brad Cerepak, Former SVP and CFO
• Richard Tobin, Chairman, President and CEO

Analysts

• Stephen Tusa, Managing Director at JPMorgan
• Deane Dray, Managing Director at RBC Capital
• Jeffrey Sprague, Founder and Managing partner at Vertical Research
• Julian Mitchell, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
• Andrew Obin, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America
• Scott Davis, Chairman and CEO at Melius Research