Conifex Timber Q3 2025 Earnings Report

Conifex Timber EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -C$0.37
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Conifex Timber Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $38.16 million
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Conifex Timber Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2025
• Date: 11/14/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Friday, November 14, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

Conifex Timber (TSE:CFF) Inc is a Canada based forestry company. It operates through two segments: Lumber and Bioenergy. The main activities of the lumbar segment include timber harvesting, reforestation, forest management, sawmilling logs into lumber and wood chips, and value-added lumber finishing. The firm's primary activities of the bioenergy segment are the generation of electrical power and the development of other opportunities in bioenergy and bioproducts which are complementary to the company's harvesting and manufacturing operations. The firm's main activities areas are the United States, Chinese, Canadian and Japanese markets. Most of the revenues are generated from the lumber in the United States of America.

Conifex Timber Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Neutral Sentiment: Q3 EBITDA was negative CAD 16.5M, driven largely by a one-time non‑cash CAD 12M duty deposit underpayment; excluding that item regular Q3 EBITDA was about negative CAD 4.5M and year‑to‑date regular EBITDA was a negative CAD 2.8M, an improvement from a CAD 11.5M nine‑month loss a year earlier.
• Negative Sentiment: Management warned that duty and tariff rates have risen to an all‑in 45.16% for most exporters, duty costs per 1,000 bd ft rose in Q3 and could roughly double in Q4, creating significant cash‑flow and liquidity pressure for the lumber business.
• Neutral Sentiment: Conifex is actively pursuing federal liquidity support under the government’s CAD 700M softwood lumber guarantee program and is in discussions with advisors, but cautioned there is no assurance of receiving funds.
• Positive Sentiment: To preserve liquidity and improve margins the company has cut costs, deferred non‑essential capex and completed a sawmill upgrade to produce 2x12 lumber, which is less exposed to U.S. duties and can command premiums of CAD 100–200 per 1,000 bd ft.
• Positive Sentiment: Management asserts the Mackenzie integrated mill is fully cost‑competitive with Eastern Canadian peers — citing an adjusted Q3 EBITDA advantage of about CAD 25 per 1,000 bd ft versus a four‑mill Ontario peer — and will seek favorable consideration for government support.

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings and welcome to the Conifex Timber Inc third quarter 2025 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO. Thank you. You may begin.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

Okay. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call covering our third quarter and nine-month results for 2025. Our President and Chief Operating Officer, Andrew McLellan, is on a lumber trade mission, and he's in Korea. With the difference in time zones and schedules, he's unable to join us. Chief Financial Officer, Trevor Pruden, is here with me, and both of us look forward to responding to any questions shareholders and analysts may have after we run through these prepared remarks. Let's quickly deal with a housekeeping item. We will be making forward-looking statements and references to non-IFRS measures, and therefore call your attention to the warning statements that are disclosed on pages one and two of the MD&A that we released earlier this morning.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

In the third quarter of 2025, the negative EBITDA we reported of CAD 16.5 million was impacted by a one-time non-cash charge of CAD 12 million for duty deposit underpayment on 2023 lumber exports to the U.S. Excluding this one-time item, our regular EBITDA was negative by just over CAD 4.5 million after writing down our quarter-end inventories by CAD 1.2 million. After deducting the positive EBITDA we achieved in the opening six months of 2025, our regular EBITDA was negative by CAD 2.8 million for the nine-month period. That year-to-date EBITDA loss represents a major improvement from the loss of CAD 11.5 million we reported in the year earlier nine-month period. As many of you know, partway through the third quarter, most lumber producers in Canada were required to increase duty deposit rates on exports of lumber to the U.S. from 14.4% to 35.16%.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

In mid-October, an additional tariff of 10% was imposed, bringing the all-in rate for most companies to 45.16%. Through the first six months of 2025, our softwood lumber duty expenses totaled CAD 4.8 million, which was equivalent to something like CAD 63 per 1,000 bd ft of lumber that we shipped in that first half of the year. In Q3, we moved a lot more lumber into non-U.S. markets and contained our duty expenses to CAD 3.3 million, which was CAD 83 per 1,000 bd ft. However, looking into Q4, it is quite possible that our duty and tariff expenses per 1,000 bd ft of lumber produced and shipped could be about double the amount that we paid in the first half of the year. I'm sure all of you recognize that these increases in duties and tariffs represent daunting financial challenges for Canadian customers.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

In the notes to our financial statement and our accompanying management discussion and analysis document, you will note that we have been candid about the liquidity challenges our lumber business faces due to a much more punishing duty and tariff burden. Paying out additional cash to fund duty deposit increases at the same time we have less cash coming in because lumber prices have softened means that cash losses in our industry are significant and adversely impacting liquidity. Against that backdrop, you would understand why we were pleased with the Prime Minister's August 5th announcement of a program to provide liquidity support to Canadian softwood lumber businesses impacted by current economic conditions. Over the past few weeks, we've learned more about the details on eligibility and funding timelines.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

We're convinced that the program has been specifically designed to help companies like Conifex fund operational cash flow deficits until lumber supply and demand are in better balance and lumber prices recover. When this occurs, SPF lumber price increases will enable us to recover a meaningful portion of the duties and tariffs that we're presently absorbing. Although we are encouraged by the discussions and progress we've had to date with financial advisors representing the federal government, there's no guarantee that we will be successful attracting funds from the federal government's CAD 700 million softwood lumber guarantee program or any other program for that matter. Naturally, to mitigate cash losses and to preserve liquidity, we've implemented cost-savings measures and have been deferring non-essential capital expenditures.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

The one capital project that we completed in the past few days was upgrading our sawmill capability to now produce 2x12 lumber compared to our previous maximum of 2x10. Historically, 2x12 lumber is less exposed to U.S. duties because more of the markets are in more of the customers are in duty-free locations, and 2x12 often trades at premiums of CAD 100 and as much as CAD 200 per 1,000 bd ft for the prices paid for other dimensions of SPF lumber. We now face highly unusual lumber market conditions. Subdued demand from the U.S. residential construction and repair and remodeling sectors has resulted in weaker lumber prices when duties and tariff costs have increased. As would be expected, we've been working collaboratively with our lenders to provide additional flexibility under our existing credit facilities, including amending payment terms and amortization periods.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

As we work with our lenders to identify our best path forward, there may be merit to temporarily adjust the scope and scale of certain activities when operating losses are significantly greater than shutdown costs. Our objective is to identify steps that we will take in the short term to ensure that we have sufficient funding available to us to sustain a two-shift operation once lumber prices return to more normal levels in 2026 and beyond. We wish to assure our employees and our stakeholders and shareholders that any actions that may be taken in the near term should be viewed as a measured strategic response to the current unsustainably high operating losses in our industry. They should not be viewed as a panicky reaction.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

Simply put, we plan to work with our current and future lenders to ensure that we have the financial capacity to support two-shift operations in the future as soon as lumber prices have normalized. Coming up to this point in our discussion, since the duty increase and tariff imposition were announced, lumber prices have fallen, and many Canadian customers are presently incurring unaffordable cash operating losses. Additional production curtailments in our industry appear inevitable. When further curtailments take effect, we believe the forward-looking supply-demand balance for SPF lumber will favor SPF producers over customers and thereby support higher lumber prices. With the passage of time, we believe that the major portion of the duties and tariffs the U.S. Treasury collects will have been paid for by U.S. customers, not Canadian customers. Since the U.S.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

accounts for 27% of global softwood lumber demand, but only 20% of global supply. Over the next decade and beyond, the U.S. demand will continue to be met by significant imports of SPF lumber from Canada and other countries. For Conifex to survive and thrive, it will be crucially important for us to demonstrate our ability to be a fully cost-competitive lumber producer. At our board meeting yesterday, we had a fulsome discussion about how our EBITDA per 1,000 bd ft of lumber produced compares to other Canadian producers. We do not agree with published reports asserting that sawmills in the Interior Region of BC incur cash costs that are 20% or 25% higher than the cost incurred at sawmills in Ontario and Quebec. We are confident that our integrated sawmill complex in Mackenzie, BC, is fully cost-competitive with mills in Eastern Canada.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

We compared our Q3 results against a peer group company operating four sawmills in Ontario. Adjusting the peer group and our EBITDA losses for the one-time non-cash duty underpayment indicates that the EBITDA losses at the Ontario mills were higher than ours by a bit more than CAD 25 per 1,000 bd ft of lumber produced and shipped. Based on this recent information and numerous other reasons that Trevor and I can review with you in the question period, if you're interested, we believe that our integrated sawmill complex in Northern BC is fully competitive with other low-cost mills in Canada, and we further believe that our Mackenzie site deserves favorable consideration for funding provided under government support programs. Despite the immediate operational headwinds, we believe that our mid-term outlook remains structurally positive.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

So against that backdrop, Trevor and I look forward to taking questions from people on the call, and we'll turn the call back to the operator. Thank you for your interest in Conifex.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys. Again, if you'd like to ask a question, you may press star one on your telephone keypad to join the queue. It looks like there are no questions at this time. Therefore, I'll hand it back over to Ken Shields. Okay. Thank you.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

We thought that we put together a pretty comprehensive review of where we're at and where we're headed. I know that some of you prefer to call directly with your questions, and we will definitely respond to them. Thank you for your interest in Conifex and enjoy the rest of the day.

[Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO at Conifex Timber Inc]

Thank you. This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for joining.

Participants

Executives

• Ken Shields, Chairman and CEO