Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 4, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Neutral Sentiment: Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending reported net investment income of $0.43 per share in Q3 2025, down from $0.46 in Q2, as lower portfolio income and two new non-accruals weighed on results.
  • Neutral Sentiment: The company’s net asset value slipped slightly to $17.85 per share from $17.92, and total GAAP net income was $0.38 per share, reflecting modest fair value declines in some underperforming positions.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management said the credit portfolio remains healthy, with senior loans making up about 90% of fair value, watch list names at a manageable level, and non-accruals still low at 0.4% of fair value.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Originations slowed to $29 million as the company intentionally held leverage near the upper end of its target range, though management said deal flow and the Churchill platform pipeline remain strong.
  • Positive Sentiment: Executives emphasized that NCDL is not exposed to Tricolor or First Brands and does not see broad-based stress in the portfolio, while continuing to focus on sponsor-backed, core middle market lending.
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Earnings Conference Call
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Q3 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Welcome to Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s third quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow management's prepared remarks. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would like to turn the conference over to Robert Paun, Head of Investor Relations for NCDL. Robert, please go ahead.

Robert Paun
Robert Paun
Head of Investor Relations at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Good morning and welcome to Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.'s third quarter 2025 earnings call. Today, I'm joined by NCDL's Chairman, President, and CEO, Ken Kencel, and Chief Financial Officer, Shai Vichness. Following our prepared remarks, we will be available to take your questions. Today's call may include forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. These forward-looking statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, and projections about the company, our current and prospective portfolio investments, our industry, our beliefs and opinions, and our assumptions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, some of which are beyond our control and difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or forecasted in the forward-looking statements.

Robert Paun
Robert Paun
Head of Investor Relations at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

We ask that you refer to the company's most recent filings with the SEC for important risk factors. Any forward-looking statements made today do not guarantee future performance, and undue reliance should not be placed on them. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements at any time. Our earnings release, 10-Q, and supplemental earnings presentation are available on the investor relations section of our website at ncdl.com. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Ken.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Thank you, Robert. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. I will start by discussing our results for the third quarter, then I'll discuss current market conditions, our origination activity, portfolio positioning, and our forward outlook. Following my comments, I will hand the call over to Shai for a more detailed discussion of our financial performance. This morning, we reported net investment income of $0.43 per share during the third quarter, compared to $0.46 per share in the second quarter. Gross originations totaled approximately $29 million in the quarter, compared to $48 million in the second quarter of this year. Similar to the prior quarter, the decline quarter-over-quarter was intentional as we continued to operate towards the higher end of our target leverage range.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

As I will discuss later in my prepared remarks, the Churchill platform continued to see strong asset growth and new originations during the quarter. Our investment portfolio remains healthy and our portfolio companies continue to perform well, largely due to the strength of our senior loan investments. Net asset value was $17.85 per share as of September 30th, compared to $17.92 per share as of June 30th. The modest decline quarter-over-quarter was primarily due to a slight decrease in the fair value of certain underperforming portfolio companies. Turning to the current market environment, M&A activity continued its positive momentum in the third quarter, building on the rebound in market sentiment that began towards the end of the second quarter. Investment activity has now returned to a more normalized level following the pause in activity after Labor Day.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Stabilizing market conditions and renewed sponsor confidence in the macro environment contributed to increased transaction execution. During the third quarter, the Federal Reserve began an interest rate cut cycle with a 25 basis point cut in September and another 25 basis point cut in October, with further rate cuts anticipated but not guaranteed. Against this backdrop, with a predominantly floating rate portfolio, NCDL and other private credit funds are interest rate sensitive. Partially offsetting this dynamic, NCDL has the benefit of a floating rate debt capital structure as well as a lower interest burden for our portfolio companies. We believe the latter should drive growth dynamics as portfolio companies will have more capital and cash flow to reinvest into growth areas of their respective businesses. In addition, a lower interest rate environment typically encourages increased M&A activity due to lower financing costs for private equity backed businesses.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Despite the potential for further rate reductions, we continue to see an attractive risk return profile for private credit and direct lending, especially on a relative basis compared to other fixed income asset classes. We also witnessed significant market volatility in private credit funds, particularly BDC stock prices over the past several weeks, following significant media attention given to two large bankruptcies. We want to make it clear that NCDL and any other Churchill vehicles do not have any exposure to either of these two investments, Tricolor and First Brands. We also do not see any evidence of broad-based challenges across our portfolio. At Churchill, we focus on sponsor-backed businesses with significant equity cushions, and we have long-standing experience focusing on less cyclical, more defensive end markets that demonstrate resilience across market cycles.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

As we continue to end the year strong and look towards 2026, we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the company, given our positioning as a leader in the core middle market, our long-standing performance track record, deep network of sponsor relationships, and extensive LP commitments across the broader Churchill platform. We remain intensively focused on continuing to invest in high-quality assets and deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns to our shareholders. Now turning to our investment activity. As I mentioned earlier, our pipeline for new deal flow started to increase and return to a more normalized level in June of this year, following the temporary pause in April and May. During the third quarter, we continued to see an increase in transaction activity, particularly new deals for high-quality assets that are in resilient, non-tariff exposed sectors.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

At the Churchill platform level, the number of deals reviewed in the third quarter increased 22% from the second quarter of this year. In the first nine months of 2025, Churchill closed or committed $9.4 billion across 265 transactions, driven by a record-setting first quarter and a resurgence of activity in the third quarter. During the third quarter at NCDL, we continued to reduce allocation sizes to new deal flow, primarily due to the fact that we are operating at the high end of our target leverage range. With that said, we continue to benefit from attractive opportunities and activity at the Churchill platform level. Although the percentages of allocation to junior capital and equity were higher during the quarter, we remain focused on senior lending, which represents approximately 90% of the fair value of the overall portfolio.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

We also remain focused on the traditional core middle market, benefiting from our differentiated sourcing and long-term track record. We continue to target companies with $10 million-$100 million of EBITDA, which we believe helps insulate us from the more aggressive structures and loosening terms prevalent in the upper middle market and broadly syndicated loan space. It is our view that risk-adjusted returns in this segment of the market remain among the most compelling in private credit, particularly for scaled, highly selective managers with deep private equity relationships. We see the core middle market as a durable opportunity to generate great long-term value and enhance portfolio diversification for our investors. In terms of our portfolio and credit quality, the continued strength of our portfolio reflects healthy overall performance from our borrowers, as well as the quality of deal flow we've experienced over the last several years.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

In addition, our rigorous underwriting, high level of selectivity, and focus on diversification have been critical to minimizing losses and generating strong returns across multiple market cycles. That same discipline extends to today's shifting macro landscape. As of September 30th, our weighted average internal risk rating was 4.2 versus an original rating of 4.0 for all of our investments at the time of origination, and our watch list remains at a very manageable level of approximately 7% of fair value. Credit fundamentals within the NCDL portfolio remain strong, with portfolio company total net leverage of 5x and interest coverage of 2.3x on traditional middle market first lien loans. These metrics are a direct result of conservative structuring and relatively low attachment points that we target when underwriting new transactions.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

NCDL had two new non-accruals during the third quarter, which were relatively smaller positions in the portfolio. Despite the slight increase in non-accruals this quarter, we believe our percentages continue to compare extremely well versus BDC industry averages. As of September 30th, non-accruals represent just 0.4% of our total investment portfolio on a fair value basis and 0.9% on a cost basis. We believe the strength of our platform, including experienced workout and portfolio management teams, will continue to drive favorable results. Portfolio diversification remains a key focus of ours within our overall investment portfolio. This has been achieved with a continued high level of selectivity. Facilitated by the significant proprietary deal flow our sourcing engine is able to generate from the breadth and depth of our PE relationships.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

As of September 30th, we had 213 companies in our portfolio, and our top 10 portfolio companies represented less than 14% of the total fair value. This diversification is critical as we seek to maintain exceptional credit quality and originate additional attractive opportunities. From a forward-looking perspective, we continue to have an optimistic outlook for private credit based on significant tailwinds to our business. We are encouraged by the steady growth in our pipeline and the quality of businesses seeking financial solutions. Following a period of uncertainty and volatility in the markets driven by Labor Day, in which investment activity and deal flow came to a pause, we've experienced a resurgence of M&A activity, leading to the buildup in our traditional middle market pipeline.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Additionally, we believe corporate management teams are now more focused on long-term strategic initiatives and investing in their businesses for sustained growth. This, coupled with an interest rate cut cycle, will lead to increasing deal flow and financing opportunities in 2026, in our view. We believe we remain well positioned due to our scale, our differentiated sourcing as an LP in over 325 private equity funds, and our nearly 20-year track record of investing across interest rates and economic cycles. Now, I'll turn the call over to Shai to discuss our financial results in more detail.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Thank you, Ken. Good afternoon, everyone. I will now review our third quarter financial results in more detail. During the third quarter, NCDL reported net investment income of $0.43 per share compared to $0.46 per share in the second quarter of 2025. The decline was largely due to lower interest income, driven in part by the two non-accruals we added in the quarter. Total investment income declined slightly quarter-over-quarter to $51.1 million in the third quarter, compared to $53.1 million in the second quarter of this year. This was largely driven by the modest decline in the size of our investment portfolio and a modest decline in portfolio yields as a result of underlying loan contracts resetting to lower base rates.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

At September 30th, our gross debt to equity ratio was 1.25x compared to 1.26x at June 30th. Our net debt to equity ratio net of cash was 1.2x compared to 1.21x at June 30th of this year. In October, we paid a regular dividend of $0.45 per share, which equates to an annualized yield of approximately 10% on our quarter end net asset value per share. For the fourth quarter, we have declared a $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, which is consistent with prior quarters. Our total GAAP net income in the third quarter was $0.38 per share compared to $0.32 per share in the second quarter of this year.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Our third quarter net income included $0.05 per share of net realized and unrealized losses, primarily due to a decrease in the fair value of certain underperforming portfolio companies, partially offset by the realization of an equity investment at a gain. Our net asset value was $17.85 per share at the end of the third quarter, compared to $17.92 per share at June 30th. NCDL's investment portfolio had a fair value of $2 billion at September 30th, consistent with the prior quarter. Gross originations totaled approximately $29 million, and gross investment fundings totaled approximately $36 million compared to $48 million and $81 million of gross originations and gross investment fundings, respectively, in the second quarter of this year. During the third quarter, repayments totaled 3%, which is lower than our long-range assumption of 5% per quarter.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

We had full repayments on four deals totaling $42 million and partial repayments for another $18 million. On a net basis, we saw a reduction in our funded investment portfolio of approximately $25 million. This reduction was intentional as we redeployed capital received from repayments with a view towards maintaining leverage at the upper end of our target range. As we look forward, we expect to continue to redeploy capital received in connection with repayments into traditional middle market transactions across the capital structure. At the end of the third quarter, our total investment portfolio consisted of 213 names, compared to 207 names at the end of the second quarter. We continue to remain highly focused on portfolio diversification, with the top 10 portfolio companies comprising only 13.6% of the fair value of the portfolio.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Our largest exposure is only 1.6% of the total portfolio, and our average position size remains at 0.5%. Diversification continues to be a key focus of ours within the investment portfolio. In terms of deployment and asset selection, our new originations during the quarter were weighted towards senior loans with $22 million out of the $29 million of gross originations deployed into this strategy. The balance was deployed into subordinated debt and equity during the quarter. Our focus on the traditional middle market segment will benefit NCDL shareholders we believe, as we see meaningfully higher spreads and tighter documentation terms in the traditional middle market compared to the upper end of the middle and BSL markets.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Spreads on new investments during the quarter were slightly down from the prior two quarters, with the average spread on first lien loans at 470 basis points compared to 480 basis points in the first two quarters of the year. Our weighted average yield on debt and income producing investments at cost declined to 9.9% at the end of the quarter, compared to 10.1% at the end of the second quarter. This decrease in yield was primarily due to overall tightening of spreads in newly originated investments, as well as lower base interest rates. In terms of portfolio allocation, at the end of the third quarter, first lien loans represented approximately 90% of the total portfolio, while junior debt and equity comprised approximately 8% and 2% respectively.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Our allocation strategy remains unchanged as we continue to target 85%-90% senior loans with the balance allocated to junior debt and equity. Turning to credit quality, we continue to be pleased with the health of our investment portfolio. Although we placed two smaller investments on non-accrual status during the quarter, the overall performance of our portfolio companies continues to be strong. At the end of the third quarter, NCDL had three names on non-accrual, representing just 0.4% on a fair value basis and 0.9% at cost. This compares to 0.2% on a fair value basis and 0.4% at cost at the end of the second quarter.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Our weighted average internal risk rating was 4.2 at September 30th, and our watch list, consisting of names with an internal risk rating of six or worse, remains at a relatively low level of 7.3% at the end of the third quarter, in line with the prior quarter. Finally, our conservative approach to underwriting is highlighted by our weighted average net leverage across the portfolio of 5x and interest coverage of 2.3x at the end of the third quarter.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

With respect to our capital structure on the right-hand side of our balance sheet, our debt-to-equity ratio at September 30th is relatively unchanged quarter-over-quarter at 1.25x compared to 1.26x at June 30th, and on a net basis was 1.2x at September 30th, net of our cash position at quarter end. As we spoke about on prior calls, our goal is to redeploy capital received from repayments and maintain leverage towards the upper end of our target range of 1x to 1.25x debt to equity. Lastly, as discussed, our focus for the near term is on optimizing the asset mix within the portfolio and actively reinvesting cash received from repayments and sales into high quality assets. I'll now turn it back to Ken for closing remarks.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Thank you, Shai. In closing, we are pleased with our financial results and the performance of our portfolio during the third quarter. As we enter the last two months of the year and look towards 2026, NCDL remains well positioned with respect to our experienced investment team, high quality diversified portfolio and strong capital structure. We continue to remain optimistic about the long-term future of the private credit markets and NCDL's long-term success based on the successful track record of the Churchill platform in operating across various market conditions and cycles. Additionally, with NCDL shares trading at a material discount to our net asset value and around a 12% annualized yield, we continue to view the shares as an attractive investment opportunity. Thank you all for joining us today and your interest in NCDL. I will now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

Our first question is from Brian McKenna with Citizens JMP. Please proceed.

Brian McKenna
Analyst at Citizens JMP Securities

Okay, great. Thanks. Just on a few non-accruals in the portfolio today, I'm curious, when were these investments made? I guess looking back to the time of underwriting, what's changed relative to those initial expectations and why did those assets ultimately underperform?

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Hey, Brian, it's Shai. How are you? Just a couple of things on the two new non-accruals. You know, I think as we've spoken about in the past, just in terms of the names, you know, that are on the non-accrual list and sort of trying to draw through lines in terms of themes, I would say, you know, fairly difficult to do that, just given the idiosyncratic nature of some of these and as they pop up. In terms of these two names that were placed on non-accrual, you know, you heard Ken speak about them on the call, just in terms of the size of the positions, relatively small, speaking to the sort of diversification points across the portfolio.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Both of these positions were junior capital names that were placed on the non-accrual list this quarter. One of them is in the automotive sort of aftermarket accessory segment. The other one is in essentially the freight sector. It's a training business and recruiting business for truck drivers. Again, you know, no real theme to draw in terms of the two new non-accruals.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

In terms of when the investments were made, again, they have been in the portfolio for a couple of years now, you know, the decline and just sort of the trend, I would say on the one hand, the overall freight recession and just sort of what we're seeing, and we've had another non-accrual and restructuring in the portfolio in the same industry. I would say that's sort of the theme there. The other one, you know, it's really just a function of softness on the top line, in terms of the performance there. Both of these investments were made actually in 2021. You know, they've been around for quite a bit.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, the decline got to a point now where we felt it was appropriate to place them on non-accrual status.

Brian McKenna
Analyst at Citizens JMP Securities

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks, Shai. Just on the workout process more broadly, you know, how long does it typically take to restructure a loan in the portfolio and then ultimately get to a resolution? Can you just remind us what do historical recovery rates for your business look like?

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Yeah. I can comment on both. Just in terms of the timing, it's obviously gonna vary depending on the severity of the situation and sort of the engagement, you know, with the private equity sponsor, and the ultimate prospects for recovery of the underlying business. It's a tough one to answer in terms of, you know, how long does it take, but, you know, clearly it can be, you know, a few-month process. It can take as long as 1 year to sort of work through the restructuring. Then the timing to recovery is clearly gonna be market and company specific, you know, in terms of how long that takes. You know, it's a sort of a tough one to vector in on a specific timeline.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

In terms of the recovery rates in the portfolio, you know, again, they tend to vary depending on the situation and depending on our spot in the capital structure. For, you know, senior loans, we have a number of instances where recoveries have been in excess of par. We have others where they've been, you know, in the 70s and 80s and others that have been lower. For junior capital, I would say it tends to be a bit more binary. Right, either the situation works out or it doesn't. We tend to be sort of in that fulcrum security where we're then riding the equity upside in the future. Again, it's gonna be variable. Obviously recoveries, you know, you'd expect them to be higher on senior loans than on junior capital.

Brian McKenna
Analyst at Citizens JMP Securities

Got it. Great. Just maybe one more for Ken here on the stock. You know, trading at 80% of NAV, leverage is at the upper end of the target. You already repurchased $100 million of stock. What else can you do? I guess what is the leadership team focused on in order to improve the valuation? You know, I think the market is telling us that, you know, maybe you should think about cutting the dividend or reevaluating that. I guess why not reset the dividend a little bit, especially given, you know, the two rate cuts we just got, one at the end of September, one in October, and that would just put you in a position to comfortably cover the dividend.

Brian McKenna
Analyst at Citizens JMP Securities

You'd likely create some incremental book value, and then maybe you have a little bit more capacity to buy back the stock at what I'm sure you think are really attractive levels.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

No, look, from a business and an investment standpoint, the most important thing for us is to stay focused on continuing to originate and invest in high quality assets. You know, we've done that consistently over a 20-year period. Certainly, you know, more recently now with NCDL. We actually feel very good about the overall quality in our portfolio and the level of new deal and investment activity. I will say from a pricing perspective, while we obviously saw spreads tighten, maybe not as dramatically as the BSL market, over the last 12-18 months, things have, in terms of spread tightening, we've seen that slow down quite a bit.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Spreads seem to have settled in at that kind of SOFR 450, 500 range, which has been good to see. Deal activity overall, the quality of the opportunities we're seeing to invest in, the level of M&A activity, all the fundamentals that we can control, we feel very good about those fundamentals right now. Deal activity, quality of opportunities we're seeing, ability to stay highly selective, underlying pricing dynamics. While obviously base rates have come down and certainly albeit more slowly than expected, we would continue to see base rates. We would expect to continue to see base rates come down. From a quality perspective, from a sourcing standpoint, all the fundamental dynamics we feel very good about, including the underlying portfolio quality.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

In terms of levers we have, Shai, I don't know if you wanna speak to that?

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Yeah. I'm happy to speak to it. I think we alluded to this on the last call and obviously, you know, this earning cycle and last, it's been a topic of conversation in terms of sort of where are earnings going across the industry. As we commented last quarter, and I think we reinforced that this quarter, you know, we felt good about our ability to continue to earn, you know, again, within $0.01 or $0.02. Obviously, we, you know, we under-earned by $0.02 this quarter, our dividend to $0.45. Again, you know, within a range and there were some reasons for that, including, you know, the two non-accrual names that I alluded to in terms of reducing our earnings for this particular period.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Again, looking forward, in the current base rate and spread environment, we continue to feel good about our ability to, you know, essentially earn, you know, ±$0.45. That's something that we will continue to evaluate as we go forward. As I commented last quarter, you know, we did talk about, you know, the fact that we do have spillover income from prior periods that, you know, provide, you know, one lever that we can pull in terms of continuing to maintain that dividend, you know, for the near term. Again, your points around, you know, what do we do going forward, do we consider additional share buybacks, et cetera, are things that we absolutely talk about.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

I think, you know, when we think about that program, obviously we did put in place, the roughly $100 million program at the time of our IPO. We've since exhausted that. Really our focus, you know, going forward is on growing the BDC, not continuing to, you know, reduce the amount of equity outstanding and reduce the share count. Again, these are all the things that we're thinking about, and we'll continue to evaluate them going forward. As Ken said, we feel very good about the quality in the BDC, its ability to continue to generate earnings going forward. That's really our focus.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

And certainly I'd be remiss if I didn't say, we're certainly looking at the share price relative to NAV. We certainly feel that the shares are undervalued. We think there's a tremendous amount of value creation that continues to go on within the portfolio. The quality, the fundamentals, et cetera, we don't think are reflected in the share price.

Brian McKenna
Analyst at Citizens JMP Securities

Super helpful. Thanks so much.

Operator

Our next question is from Finian O'Shea with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Finian O'Shea
Finian O'Shea
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Hey, everyone. Good morning. Question on the portfolio outlook. I think early in the remarks, you mentioned lighter allocation based on the BDC being fully levered. Seeing if that also implies a subdued repayment outlook.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Hey, Finn, it's Shai. When we think about the repayments, I mean, what we saw in this most recent quarter, they were running at 3%, you know, relative to our long range assumption of 5%. Again, I think that's really a function of essentially mix and really timing, because as Ken alluded to, and we're seeing it every day just in terms of the level of deal activity across the platform, M&A, you know, has certainly picked up, and sponsors are feeling good about, you know, transacting in the current environment. Our expectation is that, you know, that repayment rate would continue close to our long range assumption.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

The fact that it was at 3% this quarter, it was closer to 5% the prior quarter. Again, just the fact that, you know, we are in an environment where deal activity is picking up, you know, we're not changing our view on repayments going forward. What we will do though is again be sort of dynamic about how we're investing out of the BDC. To the extent that we get incremental repayments, and we get that those proceeds in, we'll look to redeploy them as quickly as possible into attractive investment opportunities. That's, you know, what we've done and what we do, and that's one of the benefits, obviously, of being part of the broader platform.

Shai Vichness
Shai Vichness
CFO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, we have access to that deal flow, and as we have capital available, we're gonna deploy it into attractive transactions.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Yeah. I would just say, look, from our perspective, keeping the portfolio fully deployed is not a challenge at all for us right now relative to the deal flow platform-wide. You know, we've obviously trying to maintain investment activity in every deal, so that we've got, you know, a position in every deal as we're making investments, so that we can do the follow-on and make ourselves avail ourselves to the add-ons and other opportunities in those companies. We wanna be in them at the time of sourcing. On an overall basis, I don't see any challenge whatsoever maintaining, you know, full investment at NCDL.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

To the extent we have repayments, increase for various reasons, there's been no challenge for us in terms of keeping it fully invested.

Finian O'Shea
Finian O'Shea
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

That's helpful. Thank you. Just to follow on, piggybacking on the stock price. Curious as to what you're hearing on just to hit on, you have a pretty big and successful non-traded BDC, so you're very present in that market. How much of a thing is it, I know it's very recent of course, but with a lot of public BDCs trading where they are, do you feel a lot of retail shareholders in the wealth channel, is it either a discussion or is it perhaps, "Oh, should I buy the public one?" Any color you could give us on that. Thank you.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Yeah, we, you know, we've certainly, you know, gotten that question a number of times 'cause they're obviously looking at the tremendous discount in the public. It's a good question, Finn. While it's come up, it hasn't been a major theme. Certainly, you know, at a individual level, you look at the, you know, you look at the fact that the private BDC obviously issues shares at NAV and the public BDC is trading at a significant discount. I think it just highlights the value proposition and the return dynamics and the opportunity in the public BDC. The fact that you can buy the public BDC, the publicly traded BDC at a, you know, 15% or 20% discount to NAV, you know, I think just highlights what a great opportunity it is right now.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

We, you know, we've gotten that question a handful of times. It hasn't been a huge amount of focus, but you know, we've definitely been asked the question and, you know, we try to be very straightforward on it. That is that it is tremendous value at the current trading level. No question about it.

Finian O'Shea
Finian O'Shea
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Great. Thanks so much. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Douglas Harter with UBS. Please proceed.

Corey Johnson
Corey Johnson
Analyst at UBS

Hi, this is Corey Johnson on for Doug. I know you spoke about the repayments, and, you know, long term, I guess you don't expect there to be a, you know, much of a difference from your long-term assumptions. Over the next, you know, quarter or two, would you expect perhaps more elevated repayments? Is perhaps the, you know, current government shutdown delaying some of the repayments that you might have been seeing, you know, in the last quarter or this coming quarter? I don't know.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

In fact, you know, I would say there's an interesting dynamic. If we were, which we're not, heavily invested in kind of broadly syndicated loans. That market is primarily a refinancing market. As rates come down, you might see more pressure in either BDCs or funds that are really oriented toward that market. In our world, since we are much more heavily oriented toward traditional middle market, the primary driver of activity is new deals, right? So we get a refi when a company in our portfolio is refinanced because it's sold as opposed to going out and proactively refinancing itself. You know, I would say in that regard, you know, a solid level of new deal activity. We've already been seeing that consistently over the course of the year.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

I would not expect to see any material change in the kind of the trends we've been seeing, you know, around our repayments. Again, primarily driven by new deal activity as opposed to suddenly seeing an acceleration as a result of, you know, being driven by, you know, reductions in underlying base rates. That's really not as big a factor for us maybe as some other funds that are more focused on the BSL world.

Corey Johnson
Corey Johnson
Analyst at UBS

Got it. Thanks. Then, just the last question. Are you seeing like any additional competition from private lenders, you know, coming down in market and playing a bit more in the, you know, core middle market or just any, you know, any changes in the competition landscape recently?

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, we really haven't. You know, it's interesting. You know, I get that question a lot. Institutional investors ask that. We get, you know, we get this from you folks as well. The reality is that we're not seeing the private credit firms that are focusing historically more on, you know, BSL or those large, you know, $1+ billion transactions come down market. Nor are we seeing the new entrants really being able to step up and underwrite $400 million, $500 million, $600 million, $700 million, $800 million transactions, which we obviously can do. I think in that sense, we're relatively insulated from pressure from the top or even pressure from the bottom, right?

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

The new entrants are primarily playing in that lower middle market where they can deliver a $50 million, $75 million solution. And at the larger end, you know, those folks continue to focus on larger buyouts, refinancing activity, and playing as an alternative to an underwritten and syndicated BSL transaction. We're operating, we think, in a relatively insulated part of the market where frankly, relationships are driving that deal flow. And partnering with a lender like us or one of our peers is a very important decision for driving the underlying growth in the space.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Middle market timers or, you know, firms that are coming down, you know, for a period of time and then maybe bouncing back up into their core market, not as appealing to the private equity firms that are looking for long-term partners to finance those businesses, be available to finance add-ons, you know, and really act as a financing partner for a more extended period of time. I think that's where we really benefit. You know, we've been in the core middle market now for 20 years. You know, if you look at our top sponsor relationships, we've done dozens and dozens of deals with those firms. As a result, they come back. They come back based on the relationship, based upon the history.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

It's much less likely that they're gonna tap a firm that's really more of a large cap player, recognizing that those firms tend to come and go in the core middle market.

Corey Johnson
Corey Johnson
Analyst at UBS

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Arren Cyganovich with Truist Securities. Please proceed.

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Thanks. Just touching on the health of the, of the portfolio overall. You know, your non-accruals ticked up. It's pretty modest. I think your costs are still below 1%, so it's obviously not a big challenge. Maybe just talk a little bit about the portfolio companies and how they're performing from maybe a revenue and EBITDA growth standpoint and how those trends are moving throughout the year.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, the story there has actually been very solid. Remember, you know, our overall criteria, you know, when we underwrite and invest is we are looking for market leaders. We are looking for businesses that are in non-cyclical industries. We're typically not looking at, you know, restaurants and retail and oil and gas and chemicals and anything that has an underlying cyclical dynamic to it. You know, we're also not investing in businesses that fundamentally don't have those underlying solid growth characteristics. Given that, given the world that we play in, business services, healthcare services, software, you know, we've continued to see solid single-digit growth in both revenues and cash flow for our portfolio.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

That's probably down a bit from where it was a couple of years ago. You know, we were seeing numbers in the kind of 20% range. But still, very respectable and very consistent. We feel good about the underlying growth in the portfolio. Again, I think it's reflective of not just organic growth in the fundamentals of the businesses we finance, but also the fact that when we do a deal, the vast majority of those transactions, the private equity firm that's acquiring the business has already come to the table with a plan to grow it. Either through, you know, geographic expansion, product expansion, you know, smaller strategic M&A. You know, the large percentage of our portfolio, those are the types of businesses we're financing.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

That's also, you know, and that's also reflected in the fact that, you know, in many cases, we're doing a delayed draw term loan to actually put in place a facility to finance that growth. You know, I think the nature of the space we play in and the types of companies we finance, you know, is gonna give you an ongoing kind of built-in growth rate in that, you know, kind of, you know, call it, you know, 5%-10% range. Where you're getting, you know, even stronger growth economically overall, you know, you're seeing numbers that are closer to 20%. Certainly we feel very good right now of, you know, that kind of core growth rate in that 5%-10% range.

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Yeah, I appreciate that. I wouldn't expect that you'd have, you know, high-flying growth rates. Just wanna make sure that they're not deteriorating any notably. It sounds like everything's good there.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Yeah.

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Um, the, uh-

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Yeah, I was just gonna say-

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Maybe-

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

I was just gonna-

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Oh, go ahead.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

I was just gonna say that, you know, I think, you know, as I mentioned earlier, a lot of it gets to the types of businesses we are financing. We, you know, we're typically not great fans of financing kind of static companies, if you will, where the credit metrics like might look okay, but the fundamentals are, you know, it's not really a great business. You know, it's all right. The numbers are all right. The coverage numbers look okay. You're not seeing any real fundamental growth. That's not typically the types of businesses that we would be all that excited about financing. You know, yes, all the credit metrics have to be there, but we want to be financing businesses that have solid underlying growth fundamentals. I think that's reflected in our portfolio.

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Yeah. Maybe touching on, you know, the origination side. You mentioned deal pipelines, pretty strong heading into the quarter. What's the mix of that in You know, maybe you could talk a little bit about the quality of what you're seeing, you know, come to you from the various sponsors.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, I think that, well, you know, it's interesting. If you look at our deal activity, for example, July, August, even through September, we were actually setting records across the platform for deal activity, right? I don't think anyone would expect, you know, August to be, you know, a record month. Typically, that's a slower period of time, end of summer. We were, you know, extraordinarily active. You know, in our case, you know, we would see, you know, there were weeks where we were seeing three, four, five, six Investment Committee memos a week, right? We were actually scheduling, you know, additional meetings of the IC in order to keep up with the level of activity. You know, I think that's been surprising.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, We certainly expected that deal activity would begin to come back as you saw, you know, rates stabilize and begin to come down. We certainly did see that. You know, Labor Day was a bit of a, you know, a pause in those dynamics. You know, starting really in June and July and going on through the summer and early fall, the quality has been quite good. Overall spreads have stabilized in that kind of 450-500 range. Underlying fundamentals, you know, quite good. Given the pressure, you know, on private equity to drive some realizations, you know, we've seen a fair amount of GP-led transactions.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

We have our own views as to what GP-led transactions we like and don't like. I think we like to see if there is a GP-led deal. We like to see the private equity firm roll their carry in, continue to be significantly supportive of the credit and the transaction. We do look at those. Overall, the deal environment right now is quite good. You know, we feel quite good about the quality. We feel quite good about the relative value. We're still getting, you know, in that 9% range for new transactions. You know, risk-adjusted returns we think very attractive relative to, you know, where they've been historically. We still feel very good about the deal environment.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

I didn't, we haven't talked about it on your questions, but I mentioned it in the part of my prepared remarks. The reality is, if you look at those situations like Tricolor or First Brands or even the more recent announcement on the HPS transaction, you know, the reality is that, you know, we see those as very idiosyncratic. Certainly in a number of those cases, there's elements of fraud. I'd also say, and I was talking to an investor about this earlier in the week. If you look at the nature of those deals, they were essentially bulk purchases of assets in a portfolio.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, that's a very different business than, you know, asset-based, but also just buying blocks of receivables or financing large blocks of receivables. Very, very different business than ours, where we are financing, you know, one deal at a time, right? Doing our diligence, doing our homework, you know, fundamentally, you know, assessing the business, the underlying structure, the underlying fundamentals. We're gonna stay focused on traditional core middle market, directly originated transactions in that, you know, in that, you know, $50 million-$100 million EBITDA range where we think the risk-adjusted returns are attractive. Structures, you know, have maintained, you know, a reasonable underlying dynamic. That's where we're gonna be.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

You know, we're not gonna venture into, you know, some of these other more esoteric areas of lending that have created some of the problems. Moreover, there's certainly no evidence in our portfolio today that those very isolated situations really have anything to do with the types of lending that we're doing today.

Arren Cyganovich
Arren Cyganovich
Analyst at Truist Securities

Thank you. Appreciate the comments.

Operator

With no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ken for closing comments.

Ken Kencel
Ken Kencel
President and CEO at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending

Great. Well, thank you all again for joining us. I appreciate your interest in the business. Obviously, we're very proud of our performance this quarter. We continue to stay focused on delivering excellent risk-adjusted returns for our investors. That concludes the call, and appreciate your joining us today.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.

Executives
    • Ken Kencel
      Ken Kencel
      President and CEO
    • Robert Paun
      Robert Paun
      Head of Investor Relations
    • Shai Vichness
      Shai Vichness
      CFO
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