Pool Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 24, 2025
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Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Pool Corporation First Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad.

Operator

Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Melanie Hart, senior vice president and CFO. Please go ahead.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. Our discussion, comments, and responses to questions today may include forward looking statements, including management's outlook for 2025 and future periods. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today. Information regarding the factors and variables that could cause actual results to differ from projected results are discussed in our 10 ks. In addition, we may make references to non GAAP financial measures in our comments.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

A description and reconciliation of our non GAAP financial measures is included in our press release and posted to our corporate website in the Investor Relations section. We have also included a presentation on our investor website to summarize key points from our press release and call comments. We will begin today with comments from Peter Arvan, our President and CEO.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thank you, Melanie, and good morning to everyone on the call. Earlier this morning, we reported our first quarter results and affirmed our full year guidance for 2025. While the first quarter started off with some challenging weather in key markets, we began to see some improvement in conditions in March. Although, meaningful this year, the Easter holiday occurred three weeks later than last year falling into the second quarter versus the first. As expected, our maintenance product sales performed well during the quarter and so far into the season.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

The recurring non discretionary demand of these products is durable in all economic cycles and we believe we can continue to achieve above market growth based on our strategic initiatives around customer experience, private label products, POOL360 and our expanded footprint. At the time of our last call, there appeared to be some signs of macro stability approaching, but we have seen the challenging economic environment continue to weigh on new pool construction and to a lesser degree renovation activities. Our dealers are reporting that the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment and persistently high interest rates is causing a wait and see pattern in demand for large discretionary purchases. By and large, they are reporting that inquiries are steady but time to contract is still protracted. In aggregate, the permit data in the first quarter was softer than 2024, which is somewhat surprising given the more optimistic outlook prior to the recent tariff actions.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We are hopeful that as things settle, consumer confidence will help stabilize that. When we compare our new pool construction related sales to the permit data, almost without exception, we are outperforming the market, which gives us confidence that our overall value proposition to our customers continues to help us gain share in this area. Remodel activity will continue, but there may be some deferrals of discretionary remodel and replacement or reconfiguration of plans to complete projects in phases. Despite these persistent conditions, we are encouraged by improving trends in our top line performance and we expect our initiatives will allow us to perform better than the market in all areas of our business as we push through the transition to a more normal industry environment. Another topic we would like to add some color on prior to discussing the quarter is our exposure to tariffs and how they are affecting the business as of the latest information that we have.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Our exposure to direct imports in total is relatively small and would amount to less than 1% of revenue. For clarification, this includes some building material and maintenance products. Chemicals as a category have little exposure because of domestic supply arrangements or exemptions. The biggest tariff impact in our business is being felt in the equipment area where the manufacturers have exposure for whole goods or components that are impacting their costs. Since our last earnings call, our largest equipment vendors announced and implemented an in season price increase that range from 3% to 4% that took effect in April to address the March tariff announcements and we increased our selling prices accordingly.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We observed similar patterns during the pandemic years and those increases passed through the channel with no reversals. Our current thinking is this will be the case this time as well. In addition to that, on Tuesday of this week, an additional 4% increase was announced by Pentair that will take effect on June second of this year. We will, in the normal course, raise our prices accordingly as these and future increases are announced and come into effect. Melanie will add additional color in her remarks and how we see these impacting our results.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

No doubt we are living in a dynamic market condition, but the team is focused on execution and is very experienced. Next, let me turn to our first quarter results. We reported $1,100,000,000 in net sales as our teams continue to execute on our strategic priorities. First quarter sales were down 4% versus last year, but down 2% on a same selling day basis, a similar improving trend to what we saw in the end of twenty twenty four. After a challenging January and February with tougher weather comps, we saw overall top line growth in March.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Maintenance product sales performed well with chemical showing volume and revenue growth, including double digit growth in our private label chemical products. On new construction and remodel, we saw the continued effects of tight discretionary spending under the current macro backdrop, but this area provided less of a drag on top line than we have seen in recent quarters. Next, I will recap the P and L. Gross margins came in at 29.2% versus the 30.2% in the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Recall that last year we realized 110 basis point benefit from an import tax accrual reversal.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Without that benefit, our prior year gross margin was closer to 29.1%, reflecting some year over year improvement, largely driven by our pricing optimization and supply chain initiatives. Competitive pricing became more prevalent in the first quarter, similar to what we observed at this time last year and typical for this time of year. However, using price appears to be a more pronounced tactic by our competitors of late. We evaluate these circumstances on a market by market basis and respond as we feel appropriate on a market by market basis. Both our field and support team managed controllable expenses and even with inflationary increases and investments in our network expansion, operating expenses increased only 2% during the first quarter.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We generated operating income of $77,500,000 and operating margin of 7.2%, reflecting structural improvements in the first quarter operating margin as compared to our pre pandemic first quarter operating margins that range from 5.7% to 6.5%. We generated diluted earnings per share of $1.42 including a $0.10 ASU tax benefit. Covering sales in more detail, by major geographic market sales increased 2% in Arizona, came in flat for California and declined 1% in Florida and 11% in Texas. As we mentioned on our year end call, we saw challenging weather in January and February in varying markets, which notably impacted sales in Texas and to a lesser extent some areas in Florida. Again, we did see improvement in March as total company revenues turned positive in contrast to January and February and continues in April.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

In Europe, net sales declined 4% in local currency and 6% in U. S. Dollars. As it continues to work through the macro uncertainties, but is mostly holding the improved trends we began to see in the back half of twenty twenty four. While France, our largest presence in Europe sees pressure from tough market conditions on new construction, we see positive trends in Spain and Portugal signaling a solid setup for the season in those markets.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

For Horizon, net sales declined 4% in the quarter. While commodity pricing has shown sign of stabilization, deflation impacted Horizon results by 4% on a year over year basis, most notably in PVC. Volumes came in flat overall for the period tempered by weather and a soft macro. Maintenance related sales are helping offset pressure on both commercial and residential irrigation, but our team remains encouraged by our pipeline of projects heading into the second quarter. Related to our product sales mix, chemical sales were up 1% for the quarter with volume increasing as well as total sales.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

As we observed last year, market prices declined during the first quarter compared to year end, but we believe pricing will rationalize further as the industry enters the busier selling season. We remain focused on gaining shelf space in dealer stores with our best in class chemical programs. Converting dealers chemical lines is a strategic focus area for our business, but it is a longer than normal selling process. Our success so far in this area is encouraging. Building material sales declined 5%, a sequential improvement from what we saw in the fourth quarter and much of last year.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

The improvement in our NPT branded product finish, pool finish and tile, particularly in a tight environment highlights the power of our offering and the unmatched value seen by our customers. Equipment sales, which excludes cleaners, declined 4% during the quarter following spikes from repair activities in much of Florida during the first quarter of twenty twenty four. Our inventory is well positioned for the season as our early buy terms allow for delivery from our vendors in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of each year based on manufacturers' capacity. Aftermarket demand remains healthy, automation and innovation remain top priorities for homeowners and our ability to partner with our vendors and utilize our expansive network to effectively bring those products to market highlighting the strength and value of our team. Looking at our end markets, our commercial business sales increased 7% in the first quarter.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We are pleased with the continued progress in this area as we leverage knowledge gained from recent acquisitions to align with our sales force, leverage brand names and expand our warehouse distribution capabilities and enhance our expertise serving this robust market. Sales to our independent retail customers declined 1% in the first quarter showing some improvement trends ahead of the peak season. For the Pinch and Penny franchisees group representing our franchisees sales to their end customers, sales came in flat for the quarter showing some impacts from varying Texas and Florida weather patterns and the normalization after hurricane repairs in the fourth quarter. Collectively, these results show the stability of the maintenance market and our progress to expand our capabilities to serve the key do it yourself end markets. For POOL360, orders processed continue to expand at close to or continue to expand and were close to 13% of total sales for the first quarter of twenty twenty for the first quarter, growing from 11% in the first quarter of last year.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Utilize the opportunities that the first quarter offers through industry shows and retail events to educate our consumers and potential customers on these value added tools. Along with growth in orders process, we observed double digit growth in our private label chemical sales, further highlighting our progress from the streamlined abilities of the POOL360 Water Test and POOL360 Service to direct our customers to our private label solutions driving growth and productivity for our dealers and for Pool Corp. We continue to expand our wholesale distribution network opening two new locations in the first quarter bringing our total locations to just shy of four fifty. Our Pinch Penny franchise network added its first store in Arizona, positioning us to expand into this key do it yourself market. With three stores opening this quarter, we are now coming close to 300 Pinch a Penny franchisees.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

As we enter the industry's seasonally most significant time of year, we confirm our full year EPS guidance range of $11.1 to $11.6 including the 10%, including an updated $0.10 estimated benefit from ASU. Through our thoughtful and innovative investments, we believe we have positioned ourselves to capture more available demand than anyone else in the industry during the most critical part of the season. Our teams will focus on providing the best customer experience while leaning into advanced pool three sixty offerings to help our customers grow their business. Pools remain highly sought after with continued concentration towards the higher end. Remodeling activity will continue despite some projects being spaced out over multiple projects or longer time spans.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Through our robust distribution network, we will continue to focus on best serving both the professional contractors and servicers as well as the retailers to also reach the do it yourself pool owner. We will utilize our four domestic central shipping locations to create supply chain efficiencies and fulfill demand needs better than anyone in the industry. Benefited by our ample cash flows and disciplined capital allocation practices, we will invest in strategic growth and shareholder returns while maintaining a strong balance sheet. With the seasonally significant second quarter underway, our teams will be relentless in providing an industry leading customer experience and improving on capacity creation through utilizing of our innovative technology solutions, best in class team, unmatched value proposition and continued investment in the industry that builds upon itself. Unlike a year ago, this year we have additional in season price increases that will help offset the slower start to the year on discretionary spending.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

I would like to thank our Pool Corp team, who I can always count on to operate on our initiatives particularly well in this key time of year. They continue to battle and win in a challenging market and through our teaming with supply partners creating value for our customers. I look forward to seeing what they will accomplish during the season. I will now turn the call over to Melanie Hart, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, for her detailed commentary. Melanie?

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Thank you, Pete. Exiting the quarter, we saw improved momentum in March sales, finishing the month on a same day basis at 2% over prior year. The improvements we saw in March were not enough to cover for the tough weather we saw early in the quarter in January and February, resulting in a 2% decrease on the same selling day basis compared to the prior year for the full quarter. We were successful in the quarter in passing through the vendor price increases that were put in place at the beginning of the year. These previously announced increases were expected to benefit sales by 1% to 2% on an overall product blend, with continued negative 1% impact for chemicals and commodities netting to an overall plus 1% for pricing in the quarter.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

We continue to be encouraged by our progress on our chemical business, which is a good proxy for the over 60% of our sales that are derived from the maintenance of the installed base. Volumes increased for these products and benefited total sales for the quarter by an estimated 1%. Discretionary spend in the new construction and remodel areas has still not seen a recovery, resulting in an estimated 3% drag on sales activity. We did see negative comparables and permits across most of our large states. However, the trend continues to improve in some of our key markets.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Summing up the sales impact for the quarter, we saw a plus 1% on maintenance volumes, plus 2% on realized vendor price increases, offset by a negative 1% on pricing impact from chemicals and commodities, a 2% loss on one less selling day, a decline of 3% on volumes on sales of discretionary products for new pools and remodel activity, and a 1% impact on sales for declines in Horizon and Europe combined. The first quarter included one less selling day than prior year, for a total of one less selling day for the full year 2025 compared to 2024. Our gross margin for the quarter finished at 29.2%, or 10 basis points higher than prior year when considering the 110 basis points positive impact recognized in first quarter twenty twenty four related to import taxes. We realized benefits during the quarter from our pricing initiatives and supply chain, including higher levels of private label chemical sales with offsets from less favorable customer mix. In the current period, with lower discretionary demand, our larger customers are still winning a higher proportion of the business in the market.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

While this may put some pressure on margins, the stickiness of these larger customers is evidenced in our ability to capture sales in periods where demand for discretionary products is slower as we are best at serving their broader needs. Early buy sales were similar in both periods, and so did not have a meaningful impact on margins. Product mix was a slight drag with lower building materials and strong growth in commercial sales, which also had a slight negative margin impact. We saw some instances of aggressive competitive pricing for certain orders that appears to be in response to continued softness in the market. On the margin side, this was the main difference from our initial forecast and diluted some of the benefits we have seen on our internal initiatives.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Operating expenses for the first quarter were $235,000,000 an increase of only 2% over prior year. First quarter includes the impact of our annual merit increases, continued investments in our technology offerings, as well as increased spend for the six sales centers operating second quarter of last year. This modest expense increase demonstrates leverage gains from our ongoing capacity creation efforts and disciplined variable cost management. Operating income of $78,000,000 was a decrease of 31,000,000 compared to prior year, including the $13,000,000 import tax impact that benefited first quarter of twenty twenty four. We reduced interest expense by $2,300,000 compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four and reported diluted earnings per share of $1.42 compared to $2.04 in prior year, which included an additional $09 from ASU and $0.24 from import taxes.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Operationally, the resulting change in EPS would have been $0.29 primarily driven by top line activity. Overall

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

for

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

the quarter, we realized continuing improvement in sales trends, consistent performance in maintenance product categories, and strong volume growth in private label chemicals, driven in part by our POOL360 applications. We also continued to grow both our wholesale distribution sales center network and franchisee store network, while executing with strong expense discipline. We continue to benefit from our strong balance sheet position. Our days sales outstanding of twenty five point nine days reflects an improvement compared to twenty six point nine days in prior year, reflecting our continued strong credit management process and collections discipline. In view of market conditions, we thoughtfully executed Early Buy ordering to ensure the right inventory was on hand.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Inventory balances increased $171,000,000 from year end as we received products across our vast footprint to position for sale. The balance at the March of $1,460,000,000 reflects less than the prior year of 1,500,000,000 for the inventory stocking improvements we have made. Inventory days on hand improved three days from prior year first quarter. We ended the quarter with total debt of $1,000,000,000 Debt and interest expense typically increases from first to second quarter as we build inventory for the season and as early buy payments are due during the second quarter. Even early in the season, as we increase our inventory position, we have been able to maintain our leverage ratio of 1.47 at the lower end of our target.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

We reported 27,000,000 in cash flow from operating activities during the quarter. This year, higher inventory purchases and timing of related payments used incremental cash of $70,000,000 We also made the payment of the 2024 deferred tax amount, which reflected $68,500,000 less in cash flow during the quarter, unrelated to the current year activity. During the quarter, we completed total share repurchases of $56,000,000 an increase of $40,000,000 over prior year, and have $291,000,000 remaining under our share repurchase authorization. At our upcoming board meeting, we will present a request to the board to increase our authorization so that we have plenty of capacity to continue our opportunistic share repurchase activity within the parameters of our disciplined capital allocation approach. Moving into our expectations for the current year, I'll start with the expected impacts to our business of tariffs.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

We primarily source our products domestically and so expect that announced tariffs will have a minimal impact on our direct import, examples of which would be in the tile and maintenance product categories and represent less than 1% of our total annual purchasing activities. Recently announced tariffs, we have received an incremental three to 4% price increase from around 20 or so of our vendors. As we have historically, we would expect that those cost increases will be passed on to our dealer customers. We communicate as these increases are announced by our vendors and adjust pricing as quickly as the market circumstances allow. The impact will be two for the full year.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

This will increase our pricing benefit to 2% for the annual period. Our initial sales guidance of flat to a low single digit increase included 1% to two percent net on pricing, volume growth on maintenance, and flat discretionary spending. Permit data, a reasonable approximation of new construction activity, remains lower than the prior year levels through the end of the first quarter. There has also been a new level of uncertainty in the macro environment since February, including sustained higher interest rates, increased tariffs, a volatile stock market, which we believe could be more impactful to our traditional homeowner demographic. Where our larger customers are confident in a similar number of bills as last year, other dealers in the market are still trying to fill season.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Gain more visibility in May and June, our two largest months of the year. However, at this point, we have considered in our range the possibility that we may still see some negative impact in the current year from lower discretionary spend. Our forecasted gross margin range of 29.7 to 30% included our estimates that internal initiatives related to supply chain, pricing, and increased private label would make up for the 20 bps of non recurring positive import tax benefit included in 2024. At this point in the year, we are not anticipating any significant gross margin benefit recovery from new pool construction and remodel activity, which is a significant component to reach the top end of our 30% gross margin target, and now believe that product mix could be a slight drag for the year. Additionally, we have considered that the current market environment may result in a competitive pricing environment, putting pressure on margins outside of just the first quarter.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Our forecast for sales considers at the low end similar discretionary sales levels as first quarter, offset by the additional 1% tariff pricing. At the midpoint, continued improving trends on discretionary, as we have seen late in 2024 and into early twenty twenty five, and the additional 1% tariff pricing. Our forecast for margins considers, at the low and midpoint, lower sales of higher margin discretionary products, customer mix skewed to larger customers, and ongoing market pricing pressure, and at the top end, a more traditional seasonal recovery of the market pricing. Expenses will continue to be very well managed and in accordance with the top line trends. Including the investments in the new sales centers and some incremental compensation expense, we expect expenses for the year to increase around 3% over prior year.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Our estimates for interest expense are still expected to be around 40,000,000 to $45,000,000 with higher interest expense in the second quarter after payment of early buys turning lower during third and fourth quarters as we collect on receivables from seasonal sales activity. Cash flow in 2025 is expected to be between 90100% of net income and will be impacted by the deferred tax payment made in the first quarter of twenty twenty five related to 2024. Our consistent capital allocation strategy considers spend of approximately 50,000,000 to $60,000,000 on CapEx for the existing business, including new sales center openings an estimated 25,000,000 to $50,000,000 on acquisitions, dividends of around $200,000,000 with the remainder of the cash to be used for debt pay down and to repurchase shares opportunistically. Our annual tax rate is expected to be approximately 25%, excluding ASU. This rate is estimated to be 25.5% during the second and fourth quarters, and lower in the third quarter.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

We are expecting approximately 37,800,000.0 weighted average shares outstanding that will be applied to the net income attributable to common shareholders for the rest of the quarter. Our guidance remains unchanged at a diluted EPS range of $11.1 to $11.6 including the 10¢ ASU tax benefit recognized in the first quarter. We have proven our ability to manage the business in a profitable way during various market conditions and external factors. Our pool corp team provides value to the pool industry, our customers, and our vendors, thus has a unique ability to outperform the market. The strategic actions we have taken in pricing, supply chain, technology, and network expansion are all showing positive results and position us for strong future performance as industry conditions ultimately normalize.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

The remainder of 2025 will continue along that positive path as we build upon our capabilities. Thanks to everyone for participating in today's call. I will now turn the call over to the operator to begin our question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. And to withdraw your question, please press star then 2.

Operator

At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from the line of Ryan Merkel from William Blair. Please go ahead.

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

Good morning. Thanks for the question. I wanted to start with the second quarter. I just want to get everyone on the same page. Are you expecting low single digit top line in the second quarter, which would be consistent with the full year?

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

And is that what you're seeing in April so far?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yes. I think that's a fair way to look at it, Ryan.

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

Okay. And would you be seeing about two points of price in the second quarter or is that price more second half?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

I think it's probably going to be more second half because of the latest increase won't take effect until the June. We'll see some in the second quarter, but the majority will come after second quarter.

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

Okay. And then I just want to go over the full year guidance again, and we'll just talk to midpoint. I just want to make sure I heard everything correctly. So it sounds like two points of price, gross margins still flat and then you think new pools, you could still see some growth in the second half of the year as as we sit here today?

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Yeah. So as we as we if you look at the trends all the way throughout 2024 and even into the first quarter of twenty twenty five, although we're still comping negatively, they are continuing to improve with the exception of Texas. So, really the improvement we're seeing is in the Florida market, in California, and in Arizona. And so, if that continues to improve, we would see expected in the back half, kind of minus the hurricane comp, we could start to see some volume improvement when you're looking at kind of the midpoint of the range. The low end of the range would be take a little bit more pessimistic view of that and would suggest that, because of what's going on just in the macro environment that we may continue to see some pressures from discretionary spend throughout the full year.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

The outlier, Ryan, for us really in terms of construction activity so far this year is Texas. Texas is definitely softer than the other key markets. What we're hearing from dealers is that was a very tough start to the year. And honestly, there's a of reasons why and I talked to several dealers myself and I gave a lot of different assumptions, but some are weather related, some are the macro, some are interest rates. Of late, things have improved.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So the latest calls that we have with those dealers is they're feeling better than they were thirty, sixty days ago. But still that's the one that is harder to predict right now is how Texas is going to end up in terms of construction.

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

Okay. Got it. And then just on gross margins, is flat still the right outlook there? That would assume a little lift in the second half. I asked just because you mentioned product mix might be a little more of a hurt now, and then you mentioned competitive market conditions.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Yeah, so I would say the in the modeling, flat would be now flat again, recognizing that flat is actually an improvement of 20 basis points. So flat would recognize that we're getting some benefits from our internal initiative, but it would also, know, continue to see some of that, really the margin and product mix and customer mix could impact that. So when you look at kind of the range, we have the flat as the high end with some kind of modest impact from some of the other external factors at the lower end.

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. I'll

Ryan Merkel
Co-Group Head–Industrials at William Blair & Company, L.L.C

pass it on.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yep. Thanks, Ryan.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Quinn Fredrickson from Baird. Please go ahead.

Quinn Fredrickson
Vice President, Senior Research Associate at Baird

Yeah. Hey. Thanks. Good morning.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Good morning.

Quinn Fredrickson
Vice President, Senior Research Associate at Baird

Pete, curious what your expectation is for new pool ASPs and or bigger ticket remodels this year and if that's changed at all. I recognize the typical pool owner is an affluent consumer, but there seems to be some signs that even affluent consumers are being a bit pressured right now. So wondering if you're contemplating any trade down in terms of features, automation or lower ASPs?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

That's a good question. We've gotten a lot of feedback from dealers that are what we've seen in the past is still true, that the higher end consumer or higher end pool buyer, if you will, that business is good, was good and will be good. In fact, most dealers would tell you that work in that part of the market that their ASPs so I can't tell you that those pools are getting more fancy. I think they're pretty much staying the same. But given the continued softness at the entry level pool point, if you did just an average on the ASP of the pool, I would tell you that it is solid to up a little bit and that's purely based on mix.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So I'm not hearing a lot of, at the construction side, a lot of trade downs. I did mention on the remodel side, I mean the remodel market is interesting because a) it's very big market And there's a lot going on in that that has to be unpacked. Large remodel projects, what we are seeing, what dealers are telling us is that whereas in the past, and we started to see this frankly a couple of years ago, yet just do the whole thing. They're breaking those up, right, to say, okay, let's do the pool finish, let's do the interior, let's do the decking or let's do the equipment, but let's break it up over time in order to get that done. So in total, the job is getting done.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

It's being more spaced out. But the ASP, to answer your original question, is probably up a little bit, but that's purely based on mix.

Quinn Fredrickson
Vice President, Senior Research Associate at Baird

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And then Melanie, a question about gross margin. If at the low end of the guidance that Building Materials do remain in the range of declines that you saw in 1Q, like you mentioned, How should we be thinking about gross margin in that scenario?

Quinn Fredrickson
Vice President, Senior Research Associate at Baird

Are there enough tailwinds from private label supply chain and pricing still to be approximately stable? Or we see some pressure in that scenario?

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Yeah. No. We might see some pressure in that scenario because of the lower mix of those higher margin products.

Quinn Fredrickson
Vice President, Senior Research Associate at Baird

Alright. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Good morning.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

My first question good morning, Pete. My first question is, you know, adding to your comments on consumers breaking down some of that remodel work into smaller projects.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Do you see any risk to the industry perhaps testing some of the price elasticity that we've seen? And any thoughts on how that could impact perhaps certain areas of the business relative to others such as equipment where there is more maintenance and a necessary replacement nature to them?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

No, not really. Honestly, I think that there is some competitive situations where homeowners are so dealers are slower, so there are some competitive situations. But honestly, that's typical for the industry. The only time that that really didn't happen was during the height of the pandemic when people were saying, come, I'll pay you. But right now, I would tell you the competitive dynamics are there's always going to be some work that's done to try and win a contract.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

It could be, I'll be a little more competitive here or I will defer parts of the project. But remember, the material is the smallest part of the job, right? The labor piece is far bigger than the material piece. So even if you shaved a little bit on material, if a dealer wanted to be a little more aggressive, the bigger portion of the job is going to be the labor and the profit.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's helpful. And then it's encouraging to hear that you continue to see a path to pool outperforming the industry, even with all these headwinds that are coming through. It sounds like you're gaining some good traction on some of these initiatives that you've got in place. Can you just talk a bit more on how you're thinking about those coming together as we enter the core of the season this year? And anything that's incremental there as you're looking out to perhaps later this year or even 2026?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yes, I think the investments that we've made in our chemical line, for instance, is and as I mentioned, for a dealer to switch the chemical line that's in the store, those are that's not you just don't walk in today and say, hey, please buy my chemicals and they take everything off the shelf and put yours on the shelf. That's a longer selling cycle because that's part of the identity of the retail store. So we have a great chemical line and we have great technology to go with it. And it's that's going to be something that will carry us for many years in the future. So it's nothing that, hey, we go in, we gobble up all the market share and then we sit.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

This is going to be a just a continued process to gain share. We have great product. We have great technology. We have great marketing that goes with it. And I think that's something that will be a longer term growth avenue for us.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Technology is another area too. The technology continues to get better, adoption continues to increase and the our customers, our dealers continue to see value in that. So that's good. And again, in the pool industry, nothing changes fast. Everything is a everything takes time, to do.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So we are working on that. In terms of technology, we've always mentioned that at work even chemical brands too. Once you get into the season, nobody's going to do that. So we're really at the end of the selling season for that. We'll start to see benefits for the sales that we made and conversions that we made.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

And then we'll go right back to the conversion selling at the end of the season. Because right now, the dealers are going to run with what they have because the stores are busy and everybody's trying to open pools and getting somebody to switch right now is just not how the industry works.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yeah. Okay. Thank you for the color. Good luck with everything.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from David MacGregor from Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

David Macgregor
President at Longbow Research

Yes. Hello, everybody. And my first question was really with regard to what happens if the macro should take a turn for the worse here. And where do you have the greatest opportunity to flex the model in order to protect margins?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yes, that's a good question. So if the macro takes a turn for the worse, it's really going to affect us on the discretionary spending, which is on new pool construction and to a lesser degree on remodel. The good news is that even as the macro has gone up and down, the maintenance and repair portion of our business, which is the largest portion of our business and it's also we're in the most important part of the year. This is when people are getting ready to swim, want to swim. So that business is good.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We continue to have a great value proposition. We always staff up this time of year in anticipation of full season being in swing. And there's full season in swing, your major construction season and the maintenance and repair. I would tell you that we are very judicious in terms of staffing up and adding expenses. Many of our expenses, as you can imagine, are variable as it relates to transportation and labor.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We take we keep a great eye on inventory. So we pay very close attention to the demand trends and what we're going to do from an inventory perspective. So I think Pool Corp has demonstrated over the years that we're very good at flexing from a cost perspective. There is if you look at our we're a performance based company, so compensation expense is directly tied to performance of the company. So you have the variable portion of compensation that would flex too.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

But again, this is nothing new for pool. I think we are a team of very skilled operators and this is not something that we haven't seen before.

David Macgregor
President at Longbow Research

Okay,

David Macgregor
President at Longbow Research

Thanks for that. Second question is just on pinch. Does a pullback in consumer confidence translate to growth in DIY versus do it for me? And if so, how is the pinch business positioning for this?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Interestingly enough, there hasn't been that pullback. You would think that if the macro softens that it turns to a do it for me or DIY versus do it for me, but we really haven't seen a major shift in that area. I would tell you that most of our dealers and pinch a penny as well, not only are they do they have great stores for people for the DIYer to come in and their own thing. But they also do cleaning and service and maintenance. So I think both of our channel partners here, which is obviously the independence, which vastly outnumbers the Pinch of Penny stores, very big channel for us.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

They do a great job in terms of value proposition and catering to both. And I think Pinch a Penny does that as well. But we have yet to see a shift DIY versus do it for me. Those trends remain relatively intact.

David Macgregor
President at Longbow Research

Thanks, Pete. Good luck.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yep. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Stephen Walkman from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Stephen Volkmann
Managing Director at Jefferies & Company Inc

Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Good morning.

Stephen Volkmann
Managing Director at Jefferies & Company Inc

Wanted to follow-up, Pete, on your comments about certain areas of price competitiveness.

Stephen Volkmann
Managing Director at Jefferies & Company Inc

Is there any more detail relative to the types of products or perhaps the types of competitors where you're seeing this?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So as I've mentioned on almost every call, so the competitiveness from a price perspective is nothing new. Most of our competitors that we have, whether it's newer folks that have entered the market or the traditional players in terms of their value proposition to the market don't have what we do. So the way that we they compete with Pool Corp is they walk in and say whatever Pool Corp is selling you for, we will sell it to you for less. We also have in most cases the majority or have a significant market share. So we would be a target.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Again, nothing new. When you have a quarter like first quarter where demand was, I would say nothing to get excited about, right, in terms of the discretionary and semi discretionary portion of the business, It basically means that people are going to push harder and do things that in my opinion are unsustainable. And as I mentioned in the comments, we compete head to head in these markets. We are in it for the long term. We've always been a value provider.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We always focus on being the easiest company to do business with and providing the best customer experience. Sometimes we have to be a little more aggressive on pricing. We're not going to lose share. There's other times where we see things that I know and more importantly, our operators know are not sustainable and they chase things into the ground.

Stephen Volkmann
Managing Director at Jefferies & Company Inc

Great. That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe related to this, but maybe this is for Melanie. But last time we went through a period of inflation, that had a a very nice positive impact on your gross margin, and you don't seem to be really baking much of that in this time.

Stephen Volkmann
Managing Director at Jefferies & Company Inc

So I'm curious, is it just not widespread enough yet? Or is the fact that this is happening against perhaps a weaker end market environment than the last bout of inflation, does that sort of cap the opportunity here relative to to gross margin?

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

So it's it's really a little bit of all of the above. When we look at the the number of vendors that we've heard from to date, so kinda caveating that, that represents around, you know, 30% of our cost of products, which is how we get to the 1% benefit on the pricing for the rest of the year. When you look at kind of our current inventory balances, because many of that is made up of our larger vendors, so it's going to be the big vendors on the pool side, the big vendors on the irrigation side. For them, we actually have probably a little bit less of a proportion of inventory on hand because we have the ability to turn that inventory quicker. With that being said, as we did last time with the the price increases, we certainly have the capital and the balance sheet to be able to kind of strategically take advantage of opportunities as they come through the market.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

And so we are positioned to do that, but do not have that kind of built into our current guidance at that point in time.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Steve, think you made an astute observation that we're what's what is similar to last time is the is the pricing increases. You've been covering us for a long time. So you know that in season price increases are very atypical. So the last time we had them was during the pandemic and it was a crazy demand environment. This time we have increases that are coming from many of the large vendors.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

We expect them to flow through to the market, on the announced dates, we will take we take those prices up. The vendor have opportunities, vendors have offered us opportunities to participate in some pre buys. However, given the difference in the overall demand environment, we look at those on a case by cases basis. So where financially attractive to us, we certainly have capital and the infrastructure to take advantage of that. Where we view it as maybe not as attractive, given the demand environment, we may be a little more tempered.

Stephen Volkmann
Managing Director at Jefferies & Company Inc

It's it's great color. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Scott Schneeberger from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks very much. Good morning. I'll follow on that last one, tariff pricing specifically. Melanie, it's you mentioned, you know, 30% of the of the cost of product has has been what's been put to you by suppliers thus far. What do you anticipate from other suppliers?

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

I know it's a very fluid environment. Just curious. And then Pete answered a question earlier saying, hey, probably more back half weighted because of this incremental price increase from suppliers or a primary supplier in June, but you have the lower priced inventory from early buy in the second quarter. So could you just kind of walk us through the impacts, the timing impact here, second quarter and back half? Thanks.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Yeah. So as it relates to kind of forecasted impacts from other suppliers, we have not considered any at this point in time. So if we do get additional price increases from other suppliers, we would update as those come through. When you think about the timing of the increases, the bulk of that pricing went into effect really on on Monday. So most most of the vendors had an after Easter as the effective date for those price increases with the the most recently announced one coming through in with a June effective start date.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

And, you know, the answer as far as kind of the overall impact on the sell through, you know, same thing that, you know, we would expect that, you know, there is the opportunity for some benefits in margin for that sell through. But when you think about kind of overall, you know, pricing sensitivity in the market, how quickly the customers are willing to accept those price increases, you know, it's gonna depend on the demand environment. So a little bit different from COVID where, you know, they, you the price increases were able to pass through because the consumers were beating down the door in order to get those pools installed.

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Understood. Thanks. And then as a follow-up, Pete, you, and it's been somewhat of a common theme, but on your confidence in new pool construction volumes going forward, yeah I heard you on Texas, it looked like permits in the first quarter in Florida looked particularly strong though. Was that weather related perhaps or is that truly organic and how much are you factoring permits into your guidance expectation and that includes not only permits but just feedback you're hearing. It's a thematic question of how your level of confidence in the volume of new construction.

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Permits are a piece of the puzzle. So we certainly look at the permit data. And permit data can also be bit misleading just because of timing and the timing that it takes to turn a permit in some areas. And then you have the weather component on, okay, yes, I pulled the permit, but then the weather has to cooperate in order execute on that permit. So it's a piece of it.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So we look at the permit data, we look at weather, and then we also talk to our dealers every day, frankly, about the demand environment. But again, that's a it's a as I mentioned, it's a portion of our business. It's not the largest it's not the largest portion. It's not even the second largest portion of the business, right? It's the of the three maintenance and repair, renovation, remodel and new construction, it's the smallest part of the three.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So it's something that we watch. As I mentioned, Texas is an area that we are paying particular attention to just because of the decline in permits. Florida is performing well. Florida is an amazing market for us and Florida is performing well. So I guess I would tell you the I don't really have any new color to add on my confidence in new construction.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

There's just so many factors at play, everything we discussed, and then lay on top of that, you know, the macro and how people are feeling about their disposable income, discretionary income, four zero one ks value, and then, of course, interest rates on those pools that will require some financing. I think if the Fed were to ease rates, that would certainly help encourage people. I think it would loosen up the housing market, which would also be a nice catalyst for new pool construction.

Scott Schneeberger
Managing Director at Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.

Thanks for that, and thanks, Melanie, too.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Carter from Stifel. Please go ahead.

W. Andrew Carter
W. Andrew Carter
Vice President at Stifel Financial Corp

Hey. Thank you very much. First question I wanted to ask, I just wanna be crystal clear about the gross margin. You're now assuming flat. The previous guidance was flat to up slightly, which you said in the script.

W. Andrew Carter
W. Andrew Carter
Vice President at Stifel Financial Corp

Do you have does does that incorporate a weak new construction remodel environment, therefore building materials? And and just to be clear, like, the high end of EPS guidance achievable at the flat gross margin? That's my first question.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

The high end is a guidance is achievable at a flat gross margin.

W. Andrew Carter
W. Andrew Carter
Vice President at Stifel Financial Corp

Okay. Thank you. That's that's easy. Second question, I guess, I would ask and just to drill down is I think you said it is we get the price communicated to us. We take it as soon as possible.

W. Andrew Carter
W. Andrew Carter
Vice President at Stifel Financial Corp

And obviously, that was the COVID story. Are you able to, in this environment, have you taken the price increases immediately when they were announced? And kind of how is your competition proceeding here? Or is there a longer delay? Are you waiting, etcetera?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So, we're not waiting. So, as in the normal course of business for Pool Corp, when they're with the effective date of the price increase, that's when we we elevate the prices to our dealers. We notify the dealers when we're when we get the receipt of the price increases and deal the manufacturers notify them too. And then on the effective date, we take we take the price up, which is something that is is just what we always do. Your question on, you know, what competitors do.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

I mean, there is, by and large, the competitors do as well. I can tell you, I mean, we'd have to go market by market and there are some cases where somebody might say, hey, I'm going to hold the price for you in an attempt to lure business. The other thing somebody may do and we do too, which is if our dealers come to us and said, hey, Pete, you know, we have got 10 pools sold, and we used your quote, which was pre price increase. These pools are going to start imminently. Can we count on support on that?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

And, of course, those are things that that we would support as well. So it's not like on Monday, the price increase and therefore everything goes up. The majority of the price moves on Monday, and then we would make exceptions to support dealers for prequoted jobs and to address competitive situations. But as a rule of thumb, by and large, when the price goes up, the data goes into effect, we take the prices up too.

W. Andrew Carter
W. Andrew Carter
Vice President at Stifel Financial Corp

Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Sam Reid from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Sam Reid
Sam Reid
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Awesome. Thanks so much. Noticing a pretty big swing in equipment spend between Q4 and Q1, up 6% to down 4%. It does sound like most of the impact was from demand shifts in Florida around storm recovery, which makes total sense. That said, is a piece of the negative inflection also a function of discretionary pullback, maybe trade down from, let's call it, better, best to good?

Sam Reid
Sam Reid
Analyst at Wells Fargo

And then more broadly, we all know equipment accounts for 30% of your mix. But how much of that is pure maintenance versus perhaps discretionary?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yeah, I think your assumption on the difference between fourth quarter and first quarter is essentially Florida and the hurricanes and the amount of equipment that got replaced in many cases twice for the back to back storms. So I think that's a fair assessment. On trade downs, I don't really see lot of trade downs. I was just looking through our product data set earlier this week, and I was thinking that we might see it, and I haven't seen it. You know, people are still very tech, you know, their demand for tech for new pool equipment, especially if somebody's going to spend that kind of money to replace to replace something that should have a ten year lifespan.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

They're not looking to go backwards and say, hey, give me give me old technology and mechanical time clocks and no automation. I think the trend is solidly place there. Your last part of the question that I think is related to equipment demand, how much is maintenance and how much is new construction, certainly in the first quarter with new construction, not being not being robust. That certainly plays a bigger portion, plays a bigger part in the maintenance and equipment. Now, remember, think about the market.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So, in your seasonal markets, the equipment that you sell in the seasonal market is usually early buys that the dealers are taking because they're not installing the equipment. So, they would have started to do some repairs in the seasonal markets in March timeframe. So most of that is stocking their shelves for the upcoming season. When you get into the year round markets, then the percentages don't really change. A rule of thumb, we look at equipment and say for every pump we would sell for a new pool, we probably sell four for repair and maintenance.

Sam Reid
Sam Reid
Analyst at Wells Fargo

That helps, Pete. And follow-up here, I think I asked something similar on the last call. But maybe just to revisit. We're one quarter down in '25. Just philosophically, how should we be thinking about '26, recognizing you're not providing guidance?

Sam Reid
Sam Reid
Analyst at Wells Fargo

You're starting the year off arguably with an easy comp. But then on the other hand, we might not get a big lift in new pool in 'twenty five, which really means the base isn't going to be moving up all that much into next year. So I guess the question is, adding those dynamics up, how are you thinking about 2026 as it stands today, especially in the context of your all go? Thanks.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yeah, I wish I had a great answer for you 2026. Quite frankly, we're trying to figure out what's going to transpire in 2025 because there seems to be no shortage of surprises. Overall, what gives me great confidence in the business and the industry is that most of our business comes from the maintenance and repair of a growing installed base. So the installed base next year is going to be bigger than it is this year. So there'll be more pools to service The demand for newer product with automation connected pools, if you will, is going to continue to grow.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

And there's still an extremely large number of pools that are in place that have old technology. So if I assume that the macro the macro improves a little bit, which is which is really kind of my assumption is that the macro will improve a little bit, then I think we should see some recovery in demand for new product. If for some reason, you know, the, the economy takes a a turn for some unknown reason at this point, then I think where you see the effect, most notably would be a new construction. However, in terms of new construction, we're down so much from the peak. So we're down about 50% from the peak in terms of how much more it can fall.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

I mean, we're basically slightly above the GFC number right now. So I don't see that taking a step down significantly more because most of the pools being built today are for the more affluent buyer that aren't really affected as much by the interest rate sensitivity that I think took out many of the entry level pool buyers.

Sam Reid
Sam Reid
Analyst at Wells Fargo

That's helpful, Pete. I'll pass it on.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Trey Grooms from Stephens. Please go ahead.

Ethan Roberts
Research Associate at Stephens Inc

Hey. Good morning, everyone. This is Ethan on for Trey. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe first off, just higher level, you know, the tariff impacts.

Ethan Roberts
Research Associate at Stephens Inc

Given where things stand today, you mentioned you feel confident in your ability to pass through these increases, particularly on the equipment side given that the majority of those products are sold through R and R and that has a non discretionary component. So my question being to what extent do you believe tariffs could potentially drive any demand destruction via higher prices or at the very least a trade down? And with that in mind, given that the new construction backdrop has been so difficult for several years now, if that were to happen, would it be more on the discretionary R and R side or the newbuild side? Thanks.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yeah, I think that the price increases, as I mentioned before, I think they're going to pass through the market because, again, the vast majority of that product is sold for maintenance and repair, non discretionary, the pump stop working, the filters leaking, the heater is leaking. I have to replace that. I can't operate the pool without it. So I think that's one way to think about it. And then in terms of an overall pool project, given the given the escalating cost of a pool and an in ground pool 80 to $100,000 depending on where you are now and the type of pool that you build.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

If you told me that the equipment and then the equipment pad is, let's call it 15,000 If you told me that it was going to be 3% higher, I don't know that that's going to cause people to say, okay, 3% of the $15,000 is up, so I'm out. So I don't really think it's going to have a material demand destruction impact on the new pool construction. What I do think people look at is the overall market. So if tariffs were to continue or tariffs were to get worse and four zero one ks's and equity values would continue to drop, think that's far more meaningful to new pool construction than a 3% increase.

Ethan Roberts
Research Associate at Stephens Inc

No. Yeah. That's that's fair. That's that's very helpful. And then last one, maybe one for Melanie.

Ethan Roberts
Research Associate at Stephens Inc

You know, any changes to the operating expense cadence for the year? You previously mentioned that, you know, you're gonna do some investments into the retail centers, and there's gonna be some incentive comp to think about. And then maybe, you know, how you might flex the opex given, you know, various possibilities on where gross margin could end up for the year, depending on what new build ends up doing? Thanks.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

Yeah. No real change on the cadence. Timing of investments should be relatively consistent. We will, depending upon where the top line falls, we will be managing the variable expenses as it relates to that, particularly around our ads for incremental warehouses and drivers, particularly freight expense. And then, you know, ultimately, you know, at the lower end of the range, we wouldn't see the incremental add for the incentive compensation that we talked about earlier.

Ethan Roberts
Research Associate at Stephens Inc

Alright. Makes sense. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Garik Shmois from Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Garik Shmois
Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets LLC

Oh, hi. Thanks. Two quick clarification questions for me. Just the first one, just just simplify the pricing outlook. Is it fair to assume that the April price increases are in your guidance, but the June 1, you know, pending additional support is not yet?

Garik Shmois
Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets LLC

Just wanted to be clear on what exactly is in the guide and what's not.

Melanie M. Hart
Melanie M. Hart
SVP, CFO & Treasurer at Pool Corp

So we do have both. So June 1, at this point in time, we've only heard from one vendor. And because we knew about that ahead of the call, that is included in the 1% that we provided.

Garik Shmois
Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets LLC

It is. Okay. Thanks for that. And then secondly, just on the sales piece coming back, showing growth in March. It sounds like that's continued here in April.

Garik Shmois
Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets LLC

Is there anything kind of unusual that occurred that drove the growth, any kind of onetime items or markets? I think you cited maybe Florida or maybe the delay in Easter this year, maybe that helped here in April. But just wondering kind of anything unusual that helps support the growth and just the level of confidence that's sustainable.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yeah, I think the Easter holiday was certainly a was certainly a part of it too. I also recall that last April from a weather perspective wasn't great. So I think I think that's that's probably helping out at least earlier in the month. But that's, that's really it, there would be nothing else of any significance.

Garik Shmois
Managing Director at Loop Capital Markets LLC

Okay, thank you very much.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Colin Veron from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Thank you for taking my questions. I guess

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

I was just curious on your thoughts on why Texas is underperforming your other large markets just since the macro environment and interest rate environment is pretty nationwide and just why you're comfortable in thinking that those headwinds might not bleed into your other large states?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Because we it's an interesting question. I've spoken to a lot of builders in Texas and I think that there's still so if I look at Texas weather and I look at the Southern part of Texas, the Southern Texas market, I would say that the weather in the first quarter of the year was pretty wet, pretty miserable. You know, what's interesting about Texas is the new construction market in Texas has been and if you look at the permit data, it shows that's been it's been very tough. But the maintenance business in Texas has been very good as a result of the a result of the weather. So I think that in talking to the dealers who are obviously much closer it, and they're looking at their flow and phone calls, if the dealers were telling me that, hey, I just think this is we can't explain it, that's going to be really bad, then I would pass on that same information.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

But right now they're saying that phones are still ringing. First quarter was tough from a from a contract conversion perspective, whether it didn't help macro uncertainty didn't help. But we also talked to dealers in all of the other markets and they seem be holding up better. So I can't point to anything specifically that would lead me to think it's going to bleed over into the other markets because they're frankly aside from the weather isn't anything unique about Texas.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

That's helpful color. And I guess

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

I just wanted to touch

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

real quick on the private label growth. You called that in chemicals being up double digits. Can you talk about the opportunity for private label in this macro backdrop and the puts and takes from a top line and gross margin perspective that that could have?

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Yeah, I think that there's still significant room to grow the private label products. Think our suite of products, frankly, has never been better. But again, these are products that are part of the brand associated with our with our dealers, if you will, I'm talking on the retail side. So those are longer cycle sales, we recognize that we know that. And we've been we've been working very diligently toward that and very pleased with the results.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

So I think that there's still significant runway on the on the private label sales. And I think that's it's margin accretive to us. And it also from a competitive perspective is great because they can only get those products from us. You combine that with the technology, the value proposition that dealer has is very, very good and puts them in a very, very competitive situation in their local markets.

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Great, thank you. I appreciate the

Joe Ahlersmeyer
Joe Ahlersmeyer
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

color and good luck with the rest of the year.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Peter Harwin, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

Peter Arvan
Peter Arvan
President and CEO at Pool Corp

Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to our next call, which will be on July 24 when we release our second quarter twenty twenty five results. Have a wonderful day. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Melanie M. Hart
      Melanie M. Hart
      SVP, CFO & Treasurer
    • Peter Arvan
      Peter Arvan
      President and CEO
Analysts
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Earnings Conference Call
Pool Q1 2025
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