Alcoa Q2 2025 Earnings Report

Alcoa EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.39
• Consensus EPS: $0.29
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.10
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.16

Alcoa Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $3.02 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.96 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$61.65 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +3.90%

Alcoa Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2025
• Date: 7/16/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, July 16, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Alumina and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets; and flat-rolled aluminum in the form of sheet, which is sold primarily to customers that produce beverage and food cans. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Alcoa Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Safety performance remained strong in Q2 with no fatal or serious injuries and injury rates trending below 2024 benchmarks.
• Positive Sentiment: Alcoa sold its 25.1% Ma’aden JV stake for $1.35 billion and won a favorable ATO ruling in Australia, eliminating additional tax liabilities.
• Negative Sentiment: Net income fell to $164 million (EPS $0.62) from $548 million (EPS $2.04) and adjusted EBITDA declined by $542 million due to lower metal prices and higher costs.
• Negative Sentiment: Section 232 tariffs cost $115 million in Q2 and are expected to reach $215 million in Q3, prompting Alcoa to redirect Canadian volume to non-U.S. customers.
• Neutral Sentiment: Alcoa trimmed its 2025 aluminum shipment guide to 2.5–2.6 mt, raised interest expense outlook to $180 million, and maintained a strong long-term demand forecast driven by EV, construction, and energy trends.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Louis Languois, Senior Vice President of Treasury and Capital Markets. Please go ahead, sir.

[Louis Langlois, SVP - Treasury & Capital Markets at Alcoa]

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by William Applinger, Alcoa Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer and Molly Bierman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly. As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

[Louis Langlois, SVP - Treasury & Capital Markets at Alcoa]

In addition, we have included some non GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward looking non GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide. Any reference in our discussion to date EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website.

[Louis Langlois, SVP - Treasury & Capital Markets at Alcoa]

Now I'd like to turn over the call to Bill.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thank you, Louis, and welcome to our second quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. We delivered strong operational performance this quarter both in terms of safety and stability. This is an important value driver for the company. We maintained a fast pace of execution on our priorities and continued to steer through changing market conditions. Let's begin with safety.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Safety performance remained strong in the second quarter with no fatal or serious injuries reported. Injury rates continued to trend below our full year 2024 benchmarks supported by a sustained emphasis on leader time in field. This initiative enables leaders to engage directly with teams, conduct safety observations and deliver both positive reinforcement and constructive feedback. We continued executing on our strategic priorities. On July 1, we closed the sale of our 25.1% stake in the Mauden joint ventures for a total value of $1,350,000,000 consisting of $1,200,000,000 of Mauden shares and $150,000,000 of cash.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

In late April, we successfully concluded a five year tax dispute in Australia with a favorable ruling for Alcoa. The Australian Review Tribunal affirmed our long standing position determining that no additional tax was owed. This outcome reflects the substantial effort and dedication of our internal and external legal and tax teams whose strong defense was instrumental in achieving this result. Throughout the quarter, we steered through frequent tariff updates that demanded agile decision making and rapid adjustments across both sales and supply operations. We redirected portions of our Canadian production to serve non U.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

S. Customers to mitigate Section two thirty two tariff impacts. In parallel, we sustained active advocacy and engagement with policymakers on both sides of The U. S.-Canada border. Finally, our recent customer engagements continue to signal encouraging demand trends.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

We extended our supply agreement with Prismean, a global leader in energy and telecom cable systems and completed our first North American sale of Ecolum, a value added low carbon product, further reinforcing our position as a supplier of choice for sustainable aluminum solutions. In summary, we delivered strong performance across the areas within our control, while continuing to advocate for trade policies that support both Alcoa and the broader U. S. Aluminum industry. Now I'll turn it over to Molly to take us through the financial results.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Thank you, Bill. Revenue was down 10% sequentially to $3,000,000,000 In the Alumina segment, third party revenue decreased 28% on lower average realized third party price, partially offset by increased shipments. In the Aluminum segment, third party revenue increased 3% due to increased shipments and favorable currency impacts, partially offset by a decrease in average realized third party price. While the Midwest premium increased during the quarter in response to the increase in U. S.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Tariffs, the increase was more than fully offset by lower LME resulting in a decrease in the realized price of aluminum. Second quarter net income attributable to Alcoa was $164,000,000 versus the prior quarter of $548,000,000 with earnings per common share decreasing to $0.62 per share. On an adjusted basis, net income attributable to Alcoa one hundred and three million dollars or $0.39 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $313,000,000 Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA. The sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA of $542,000,000 is primarily due to lower alumina and aluminum prices and increased U.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

S. Section two thirty two tariff cost on aluminum imported into The U. S. From our Canadian smelters. The Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $525,000,000 primarily due to lower alumina prices.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

In addition, higher production costs, energy costs and raw material costs were only partially offset by higher volumes. The Aluminum segment adjusted EBITDA decreased $37,000,000 While lower metal prices and unfavorable currency were more than offset by lower alumina costs, the segment was impacted by $95,000,000 in U. S. Section two thirty two tariff, which includes the increase in the tariff rate from 25% to 50% effective June 4. These impacts were only partially offset by price mix improvements and higher volumes.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Outside the segments, other corporate costs increased while intersegment eliminations changed favorably due to lower average alumina price requiring less inventory profit elimination. Moving on to cash flow activities for the second quarter. We ended the quarter with cash of $1,500,000,000 Cash from operations was positive again this quarter, providing $488,000,000 along with a working capital release of $251,000,000 Working capital decreased from the first quarter as accounts receivable came down with the lower prices for alumina. Subsequent to close of the second quarter, on July 1, we received approximately 86,000,000 shares of Mauden and $150,000,000 of cash for the sale of our interest in the Mauden joint ventures. The majority of the cash will be used to pay related taxes and transaction fees.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Moving on to other key financial metrics. The year to date return on equity was positive at 22.5%. Days working capital was flat sequentially at 47 days. Our second quarter dividend added $27,000,000 to stockholder capital returns. We had positive free cash flow for the quarter of $357,000,000 Turning to the outlook.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

We have four adjustments to our full year outlook. First, we are adjusting our annual outlook for aluminum shipments to 2,500,000 to 2,600,000 metric tons, down from our initial estimate of 2,600,000 to 2,800,000 metric tons. The change is due to reduced shipments from the San Ciprian smelter where the restart was disrupted by the nationwide power outage in April. As separately announced earlier this week, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart process in the third quarter. The reduction in aluminum shipments will primarily impact the third quarter due to the timing of the San Ciprian ramp up.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Second, we are lowering other corporate costs to $160,000,000 from our initial estimate of $170,000,000 due to reductions in corporate expenses and favorable currency impacts. Third, we are increasing our outlook for interest expense to $180,000,000 from our prior estimate of $165,000,000 due to unfavorable value added tax assessments. And last, we have adjusted the return seeking CapEx outlook for 2025 to $50,000,000 down from $75,000,000 as the pace of spend has not matched the original forecast. For the third quarter of twenty twenty five, in the Alumina segment, we expect performance to improve by approximately $20,000,000 with lower maintenance costs and higher production. In the Aluminum segment, we expect higher Midwest premium revenue in relation to the increased tariffs.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Premium changes can be calculated from the sensitivities provided in the appendix. Those premium gains will be offset by approximately $90,000,000 in sequential expense increase for tariff costs. With the increase in The U. S. Section two thirty two tariff rate from 25% to 50%, we expect quarterly tariff costs to approximate $250,000,000 based on an LME of $2,600 and Midwest premium of $0.67 per pound.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

While costs related to the San Ciprian restart will be higher sequentially, they are not material and we expect to cover with improvements in other operations. Alumina cost in the Aluminum segment is expected to be favorable by $100,000,000 Our updates exclude impacts from the recently announced tariffs on U. S. Imports from Brazil. Below EBITDA, other expenses in the third quarter are expected to remain consistent with the second quarter.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Based on last week's pricing, we expect third quarter operational tax expense of $50,000,000 to $60,000,000 Tax expense in the third quarter is notably higher than the second quarter, which included a catch up benefit to reflect the annualized effective tax rate when applied to year to date earnings. In the appendix to the earnings materials, you will see that our Midwest paid and Midwest unpaid premium sensitivities have been updated to reflect the expected trade flows as a result of additional tariff impacts. We also revised our regional premium distribution to align with our efforts to redirect tons and optimize margins. Currently, approximately 30% of our Canadian aluminum production is available for spot sales and can be redirected to customers outside The U. S.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

When the premium, shipping and tariff netback calculations favor another destination. Additional updates to our sensitivities may be needed as we continue to adjust our trade flows to the tariff structure. Now I'll turn it back to Bill.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thanks, Molly. While tariffs continue to drive near term volatility, the broader outlook for aluminum demand remains robust. This slide illustrates Alcoa's long term demand forecast underpinned by powerful global megatrends across key sectors. Transportation leads as the largest and fastest growing sector, driven by the shift to electric vehicles, lightweighting initiatives and increased vehicle production. Construction shows more modest growth tempered by a slowdown in China, though emerging markets and favorable macroeconomic conditions like lower long term interest rates and increased fiscal spending in Europe offer upside potential.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Packaging is expanding rapidly fueled by consumer preference for recyclable materials. Electrical demand is accelerating due to the global energy transition with aluminum playing a critical role in renewable power generation and grid modernization. Other sectors, including consumer durables and machinery and equipment are also expected to grow steadily. Importantly, the geography of growth is shifting. Primary aluminum demand is projected to grow significantly faster in markets outside China at a 3% CAGR from 2025 to 02/1930, while China's growth slows to just 0.2% CAGR largely met by recycled metal.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Within Alcoa's core regions, North America is expected to lead with a 3.8% CAGR and Europe is projected to grow at 1.5%. Three structural drivers underpin the overall aluminum growth trajectory. The green and digital transition. Aluminum is essential to electrification, decarbonization and digital infrastructure supporting everything from electric vehicles to data centers. Second is the rise of developing economies, the China transition and reshoring in North America and Europe.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

As China's growth moderates, developing economies are stepping up. Meanwhile, reshoring in North America and Europe often driven by trade policy continues to boost regional demand. Third, material substitution. Aluminum's recyclability and performance make it a preferred alternative to copper, plastics and other materials, especially in closed loop systems. Despite short term uncertainty, these megatrends provide a resilient and compelling roadmap for long term aluminum demand growth.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Now turning to our markets, starting with alumina. After a sharp decline during the first quarter, alumina prices rebounded somewhat in recent months. As noted in our previous earnings update, over 80% of Chinese refineries were operating at a deficit due to high bauxite prices and low alumina prices. In response, approximately 10,000,000 metric tons of refining capacity in China was curtailed or reduced for maintenance during April and May. These production cuts contributed to a more balanced market and supported the price recovery seen in the second quarter.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Looking ahead, market dynamics will continue to be shaped by capacity expansions in Indonesia, India and China. As new supply comes online, we anticipate further production cuts and plant maintenance in China may be necessary to maintain market balance in the second half of the year. On the bauxite front, prices have remained elevated due to supply uncertainty stemming from mining license withdrawals in Guinea. These disruptions could intensify with the onset of the rainy season further tightening supply. In this dynamic environment, Alcoa's global refinery network continues to provide reliable aluminum supply to both our smelters and key customers.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

We're also capitalizing on high bauxite prices with our Juruti mine on track to achieve record sales volumes this year. Let's now move on to aluminum. LME prices dipped in April coinciding with the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, but regained momentum over the course of the quarter. Despite this recovery, prices remained below first quarter levels, reflecting ongoing market volatility. U.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

S. Midwest premium initially surged in early June following the implementation of the 50% Section two thirty two tariffs reaching $0.68 per pound and now stands at $0.67 as of late last week. This remains below analyst estimates of approximately $0.75 per pound to fully offset the tariff costs. The Midwest Duty Unpaid Index calculated by subtracting the tariff from the duty paid premium has shown negative or near zero values at times. This theoretical index only holds when the market is priced on marginal imports, which hasn't consistently been the case.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

In response, we sold over 100,000 metric tons Canadian metal normally destined for The U. S. To non U. S. Customers since March and we'll continue this strategy until the Midwest premium fully reflects the new tariff structure.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

From a demand perspective, conditions remain steady in both Europe and North America, although sector performance is mixed. Electrical and packaging continue to perform well, construction appears to be stabilizing and automotive remains the most affected by tariff related uncertainty. In China, easing trade tensions with The U. S. Are providing a modest boost to demand.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

On the supply side, growth was limited in the second quarter with only marginal increases from smelter restarts and expansions. Global production remains constrained, particularly outside of China. Specific to Alcoa, in North America, our value added product order book remained stable with strong demand for slab, billet and rod. In Europe, VAP volumes improved slightly in the second quarter with billet demand strengthening and rod and slabs demand holding firm. However, foundry orders softened in both regions largely due to uncertainty in the automotive sector tied to tariff impacts.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

We are progressing the approvals for our next major mine regions in Western Australia, Myara North and Holyoke, as well as our current mine plan, which had been referred by a third party. The twelve week public comment period for both approvals, which began in late May, is a statutory part of the environmental impact assessment process. It enables individuals, communities of communication and engagement campaign. The focus of the campaign is to ensure that the public has access to accurate information and facts about our environmental performance in Australia and understands our commitment to responsible mining in the Northern Jarrah Forest. And key highlights include over 55 of rehabilitation experience.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Only 2% of the Northern Jara Forest has been cleared for mining. No mining in old growth forests, operations are limited to areas previously cleared for timber and 75% of cleared forest has been rehabilitated. The campaign also showcases the expertise and dedication of our alcohol professionals who apply a science based approach to biodiversity and rehabilitation. Given the complexity of advancing two mine approvals at the same time, the volume of documentation submitted by Alcoa and independent experts and the anticipated effort to review and respond to public submissions, the original timeline for mine approvals is no longer feasible. While ministerial approval was initially targeted in the first quarter of twenty twenty six, it is now expected that the process will extend beyond that timeframe.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Following the public consultation period, we expect the Western Australia EPA will publish a revised timeline. We remain committed to working collaboratively with the Western Australia EPA and other stakeholders to secure ministerial decisions as early as possible in 2026. In the meantime, we have developed multiple contingency plans and expect to continue accessing bauxite of similar grade until the new mine regions are operational. We will continue to engage with stakeholders to fulfill our responsibilities as a trusted miner and to sustain our right to mine for decades to come. To conclude, in the second quarter Alcoa delivered strong safety, results and operational performance in areas within our control.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

We also made meaningful progress on our strategic priorities. Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing at pace across our twenty twenty five priorities, enhancing operational competitiveness, navigating market dynamics to deliver long term value for our stockholders, and advancing the approval process for our Western Australian mine plans. With that, let's open the floor for questions. Operator, please begin the Q and A session.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. And our first question comes from Katja Yenkig with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting on the tariff side, Molly, I think you mentioned that the current outlook doesn't include anything for potential, I guess, 50% tariffs on Brazil. How would if that does happen, is there any way you get impacted from that potentially?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

It depends on if alumina is indeed excluded. Our read of it now is that it's covered under the annex, but until we see the executive order that would be related to Brazil, we can't assure that. That were the case, we are sourcing our U. S. Smelters with Brazilian alumina.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Now we could redirect supply and provide them from Western Australia, but obviously that will take time and cost more in terms of shipping. But we have that option and depending on how that executive order is written we can adapt.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you. And maybe just another question, Bill on the Western Australia contingency plans. Can you discuss what some of those plans could be? And how could that impact your cost?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So, at this point, as far as an impact on cost, we don't anticipate any impact in 2025 or 2026. The expectation that we would be into the new mine areas in late twenty twenty seven has now slipped out into 2028. We have a series of contingency plans that cover different mining areas potentially going deeper in the pits that we're in that allow us to be comfortable that we are working through the process and we'll get the right approvals.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Alex Hacking with Citi. Please go ahead.

[Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup]

Yes. Thanks Bill and Molly. Just following up on Katya's question there on WA. If the delays to the new mine areas are extended, can you keep mining the lower grade areas for a period of additional years or it would be more urgent than that? Thank you.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So we'll continue to mine the areas that we're in today. And as I said to Katya, no impact on 2025, 2026. As we said, we expect it to be in the new mines to in late twenty twenty seven that slips out till 2028 at this point. But we do have contingency plans in place that can go up to all the way up to a fifteen month delay if needed.

[Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup]

Okay. What if it's longer than fifteen months?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

We'll work through that and we'll look at what implications it has on operating rates in Pinjarra. But we'll work through that when we get there.

[Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup]

Okay. Thanks. And then just following up on the tariff math. Mean, Molly, you mentioned that I think it was $215,000,000 a quarter in Section two thirty two cost. Is that being more than offset by what you're getting on the additional Midwest premium at the moment? Thanks.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Alex, let me give you the numbers of what we experienced for the second quarter. So if you look at in our bridge discussion, we talked about the tariffs being $95,000,000 more in the second quarter. That's on top of the 20,000,000 that we paid in the first quarter. So the cost in the second quarter was about $115,000,000 We only saw a Midwest premium uptick of about $60,000,000 So we had margin compression of about $55,000,000 and that's related to our Canadian tons. Now obviously, we're getting a benefit on our U.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

S. Tons, but I'm giving you the compression that we felt on the Canadian.

[Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup]

Sorry, the 60,000,000 additional is that just on the Canadian tons or that includes The U. S. Tons?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Just on the Canadian tons.

[Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup]

Okay. Thank you.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Alex, let me just give you a little bit more color. If you look at the pricing today, so with LME at $2,600 and Midwest premium at $0.67 a pound.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

We are near neutral or even slightly positive if you look at the volumes as a whole, because the higher uptick in Midwest premium on The U. S. Tons would be more than the net negative on our Canadian tons. So that's at this current pricing. If this were to hold from a whole year perspective, we would be about neutral to slightly positive.

[Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup]

Thank you. That's perfect. You. Very helpful. Thank you.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

And the one point that we continue to make is and I think other analysts that follow the space make it. The current Midwest doesn't support the overall tariff costs coming out of Canada. So current Midwest is sitting at $0.67 $0.68 We think it needs to be between and $0.75 depending on how you look at it to cover total tariff costs. And that's why we have moved repositioned metal going that was expected to go into The U. S.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

That is now going into destinations outside of The U. S. Just because that math doesn't work currently. And anywhere we can take advantage of that we will and move tons for other destinations.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Daniel Major with UBS. Please go ahead.

[Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank]

Hi. Thanks for the questions. Just a very quick first one, just to clarify the maths on the tariff costs. You had $115,000,000 cost in the second quarter and you said it's going to be a negative $90,000,000 delta. So it's $2.00 $5,000,000 the run rate cost in the second quarter. Is that correct?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

That will be the third quarter cost. So third quarter. Then we're saying again at latest pricing. So if you dial forward that would be the $215,000,000 that we guided to in tariff cost.

[Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank]

Sorry, you said latest pricing, you mean spot pricing or like?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Yes, sorry. The $2.00 5 is what we gave as the outlook for the third quarter. So that's the 90 sequential change. And then we were also saying that our quarterly tariff cost at today's pricing is $2.15.

[Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank]

Got it. Clear. That's very good. Thanks. Yes.

[Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank]

Then second question just on San Ciprian. You updated the respective net income drag and cash burn this year. Can you give us any sense of expectations for 2026 at this point? My guess would be the refinery will continue to burn cash. But is there any guidance you can give on either the cash burn or not at the smelter and the refinery?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Yes. Daniel, we're not giving the guide there yet, but you're right. At recent market prices, the Spanish operations are challenged. From the smelter, the delay to the restart after the power outage has driven the full ramp up into '26. We do expect after full ramp up that the smelter will be profitable, but the refinery, while having a first quarter twenty five income, they will move into a loss position for the rest of the year and they will struggle still at this API level into 2026.

[Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank]

Okay. But at spot you can confirm that the smelter would be cash neutral?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

The smelter at fully ramped up a level would be profitable.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

But remember, it won't be fully ramped up in 2026. I mean, it will hit. Our anticipation is that it will hit the ramp up schedule for 2026. But for the full year, it still will it will be going through the process of ramping up.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

We be fully ramped up till midyear twenty twenty six.

[Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank]

Helpful. Thanks.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Nick Giles with B. Riley. Please go ahead.

[Henry Hearle, Equity Research Associate at B. Riley Securities]

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. This is Henry Hurl on for Nick Giles today. Thank you for taking my question. So on our estimates, have about 50,000 metric tons of spare annual capacity at work and the Midwest premium has increased sharply to reflect that tariffs may be stickier than originally thought. So my math, the spare capacity at Warrick could generate over $100,000,000 of EBITDA annually.

[Henry Hearle, Equity Research Associate at B. Riley Securities]

And so what prevents you guys from restarting this capacity today? Thank you.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thanks for the question and it's a great question. We're currently running three lines at Warrick. We have a fourth line at Warrick that would produce approximately 50,000 tons. The issue in Warrick is that that fourth line needs a lot of work and will take some time to get restarted. So our estimate is that it would be about $100,000,000 investment to restart that fourth line and it would take us about a year to get it up and running.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So we will certainly continue to run the numbers on work. We would need to ensure that the tariffs will stick around for quite a while given that ramp up curve in Warrick before we made the decision of investing another $100,000,000 in a restart in Warrick.

[Henry Hearle, Equity Research Associate at B. Riley Securities]

Thank you. That definitely makes sense. Thanks for the color there and continued best of luck.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thank you.

[Henry Hearle, Equity Research Associate at B. Riley Securities]

Thanks.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

[Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Yes. Hi, good afternoon and thanks for taking the questions. On the mid-twenty twenty six restart of San Ciprian, it still implies 75% utilization. Can you remind us of, I guess, when the term of the agreement with the workforce comes in and whether the delayed restart has any impact on that?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Bill, thanks for the question. After the power outage occurred in Spain, we declared force majeure with on that contract, because it limited our ability to be able to meet the deadlines that are included in the contract. Recall that we had anticipated a full restart by 10/01/2020 sorry, '25. And then from there, we had some flexibility on how we run the plant after that full restart. Because of the power outage, we have said that we were not going to meet that October 1 deadline and we've moved it back to the middle part of twenty twenty six.

[Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Okay. Thanks for that. And then kind of different angle on the tariffs and last quarter I asked you about conversations with the U. S. Government.

[Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan]

But I guess in light of the tariffs remaining where they are now, how should we think about the commercial strategy things like tariff cost sharing? And maybe perhaps you can share additional color on your shifting flows to non U. S. Customers. How should we think about that in the coming months?

[Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan]

And then finally, is there any opportunities from relief from the Canadian government in the meantime?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So we have had extensive conversations on both sides of the border. I've been talking to the Kearney administration often. I've been talking to the U. S. Administration often.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

And at a 50% tariff, you saw us take action to redirect 100,000 tons to non U. S. Customers. As Molly said in her prepared remarks, we have the ability of about 30% of the Canadian volume to be able to redirect that to non U. S.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Destination. And we will do so as long as the netbacks make more sense to ship it to other places than The U. S. So we've been very dynamic and handled this situation very quickly and will continue to do so in the future. I felt like that was a multi part question.

[Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Did I miss any of that? Yes. Just anything on tariff cost sharing that you might add?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Well, when you say tariff cost sharing, we through the Midwest Premium, Midwest Premium is largely passing on the higher tariffs to our customers. So just to be clear, we are saying the Midwest Premium needs to be at let's say $0.75 to fully cover the tariffs. We're able to pass through 90% of that through a higher Midwest premium to our customers. So while we're not particularly thrilled with the tariffs, customers are paying significantly higher prices for aluminum in The United States than they would pay anywhere else in the world.

[Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan]

Yes. Well, understood. Thanks, Bill.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thanks.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Chris Lefevina with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Hey, thanks for taking my question. And it might be a dumb question, but isn't it the case that the tariffs are really just a net neutral for you? Because if you're diverting tons away from The U. S. Because you can get better prices elsewhere, the Midwest premium goes up. And unless the Midwest premium is high enough for you to sell to The U. S, well then you want to sell there. And at the end of the day, it's really, I mean, equilibrium, it should be a net neutral. It's the customers in The U. S.

[Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Will pay the premium, but I'm not really sure why the guidance should be for any net impact other than if you only consider where Midwest premium is today and where the LME price is today, but over time, shouldn't it be a wash? That's my first question.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So let me address this and Molly can certainly feel free to jump in. With all the numbers that Molly gave us earlier in the call, in the end, if the Midwest Premium reacts accordingly, it's a net neutral to Alcoa. However, there's a big however there. Our customers in The U. S.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Are seeing significantly higher prices than anywhere else in the world. And if you assume that they can pass that on to their customers, then I guess the net neutral to them, but somebody ends up eating that tariff cost. And there are dedicated supply chains from Canada to our customers, literally trains that go from door to door from our plants to our customers that our belief is that it makes the most sense for the industry to have metal being able to flow from Canada to The U. S. With either a lower tariff or no tariff at all.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

And so and that's the best thing we think for our customers and for our industry to be able to do that.

[Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Right. So in that case, the impact of the tariffs is really on total demand, in which case LME prices would go down. But net impact I mean other than the overall kind of price global LME price impact, the impact on Alcoa should still be a neutral rate because either way the Midwest premiums got to equal the tariffs over time.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Chris, you have to remember that we do have customer contracts. We don't have full flexibility to move the metal dynamically. 70 of our Canadian metal is on contract. So that needs to flow into The U. S. For customer commitment.

[Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Okay. Thanks. And then sorry, just a second question on the ATO, which I think you had $225,000,000 in taxes now by the middle of next year. Is any of that provisioned on the balance sheet yet? How do we think about the kind of cash flow impact of that and the balance sheet impact of that? Thank

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Yes. That is fully reserved on the balance sheet now as a tax payable.

[Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Great. Thanks.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

And Chris, I'm just going to add to that and I can't help myself. That is a major win for Alcoa. That was a large overhang on the company and on the stock. We have been battling that for five years now. And to get that behind us is a really big deal.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

And I'll give some credit to our tax and legal team here that stuck with it and really presented a great case. So I'm pleased that we're able to put that behind us.

[Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group]

Thank you.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thanks.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Carlos de Alba, Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Yes. Thank you very much. Hello, Molly and Bill. Just on the last point you made Molly that 70% of your Canadian smelting output is on the contract to be sold to U. S.

[Carlos de Alba, Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Customers. When does when can you start renegotiating potentially those contracts so that, 70% decreases?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

So those are annual contracts, but also understand we have firm customer relationships that we're not going to jeopardize. So Carlos, you could see some flexibility, it's going to be a careful balance of respecting our strong customer relations as well as moving the metal to get the best margin.

[Carlos de Alba, Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

All right. Okay. And if I may, just on the progress on the Alumar smelter in Brazil, why is the capacity utilization at which you are running? When do you expect to get sort of a steady state?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So we continue to struggle with the Alumar restart. And we're sitting at about 92% capacity today. So net net, we moved a little bit forward over the last quarter. The issue there, Carlos, is some of the patched pots that we had not anticipated having to realign are failing faster than what we had anticipated. So it's a battle.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

We take, I would say, a step and a half forward and a step backward just about every day in Alumar. And we're anticipating that we'll have that restarted completely this year. However, I've told you that before. And I think we're that's my target, but I've missed my target before. So take that with a grain of salt.

[Carlos de Alba, Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

All right. Good luck. Thank you very much.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thank you.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you, operator. Hello, Bill and Molly. Thank you for today's update. Just wanted to follow-up on the Maud Den closing and whether there's any new thinking on the potential to monetize that amount or even just simply lower your overall borrowing costs using that as collateral?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

A lot.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Lawson, while we have the option to monetize those shares during the lockup period, recall the lockup period, we cannot sell shares until the third, fourth and fifth anniversary, the third each year. But to monetize those would be complex transactions and that would be classified as debt on our balance sheet and that might not really be a cost effective source of liquidity either. While we don't expect to hold the shares for an extended period of time after each lockup period expires, we don't have plans to monetize in advance. Right now, we don't have a specific use for the cash that would have us add that debt to our balance sheet.

[Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America]

And then as you report those gains and losses going forward, I assume you'll be adjusting those out?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Yes. It will be mark to market and you'll see special items to remove that from our regular operations.

[Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.

[John Tumazos, Owner & CEO at John Tumazos Very Independent Research]

Thank you for taking the question. I'm curious as to the confidence you have in Spain restarting this week that the utility will deliver electricity, presumably the population grows something like 10% July, August with tourism And then there's air conditioning, electricity demand in the heat of the summer. So are there any guarantees of power delivery or something that's different than August 28 when the wind didn't blow?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So John, question it's that we've been wrestling with since the wind didn't blow on the date earlier in the year. We've been working with the national and regional representatives of the country and they have developed and this is obviously not just to our prompting, but prompting from other industry in Spain. They've approved a list of 65 actions in the energy sector that are designed to make the electricity grid more resilient. They are incorporating additional tools in the networks like voltage control, working on stability in the face of oscillations. So they are working to strengthen the electrical system.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

There's no guarantees in life and but they are taking, we believe, the right measures to ensure that the power stays on.

[John Tumazos, Owner & CEO at John Tumazos Very Independent Research]

As you start up Monday the fourteenth, how many pots per week do you energize? Is the circumstance in late July and August where you're really not drawing very much electricity because of the gradual nature of the process?

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Yes. So it's a gradual ramp up process and we should hit the target by the middle part of next year. My recollection is there's 500 pots in Spain. So we'll be starting you can do the math on how many pots we have to start to hit total production by the middle part of next year. But yes, we'll be starting a few pots a week to get that restart done.

[John Tumazos, Owner & CEO at John Tumazos Very Independent Research]

Thank you.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thanks.

[Operator]

And your next question today will come from Glyn Leuklock with Baird and Joey. Please go ahead.

[Glyn Lawcock, Head of Resources Research at Barrenjoey]

Afternoon, Bill and Molly. Firstly, Bill, just wondering if you could share any thoughts on how discussions with the government are going regarding the tariff. I had heard that maybe Canada could be in line for a reduction relative to the rest of the world. And then secondly, I don't want to put the cart before the horse, but net debt came down, you're almost within sight of that 1,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 range. Just your thoughts on timing for when we may hear some words on capital management and what you're potentially thinking if it's not too early? Thanks.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Glenn, on the tariff discussion, I want to emphasize exactly how much advocacy and engagement we've been doing over the last three or four months. I've spent time in Ottawa. I've spent a lot of time in D. C. I have met with Mr. Hassett, Mr. Lutznik, Mr. Greer. I even had a very brief very, very brief discussion with President Trump while I was in Saudi Arabia and we're talking like a fifteen second discussion with President Trump while I was in Saudi Arabia. And we're doing really two things.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

One is an underlying education of how short The U. S. Market is for aluminum and how long it would take to replenish that via building plants in The U. S. And recall and I know you know this, but building a smelter in The U.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

S. Would probably take us at least five years in order to replace the 4,000,000 metric tons of aluminum that comes outside of from outside of The U. S. We need six gigawatts of energy that's not gigawatt hours, that's six gigawatts of energy. And it would probably cost $30,000,000,000 to put 4,000,000 metric tons here.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

So we're educating the government on those facts. And then secondly, we're educating them on how tight the supply chains are between The U. S. And Canada and the fact that we think it makes a lot of sense to have metal coming out of Canada to support our downstream customers. And then there's one last data point.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

There's something like 12 or 13 jobs in the downstream that are supported by every Canadian primary upstream jobs. So the relationship between how much jobs can be created in upstream is really outweighed by how many jobs there already are in the downstream processing business in The U. S. Do you want to address the capital flows?

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

Glenn, thanks for the question on cap allocation. We made good progress this quarter on our adjusted net debt target. At the end of the second quarter, we were at $1,700,000,000 that's an improvement from the $2,100,000,000 from the first quarter. We are about $200,000,000 away from the high end of our target at $1,500,000,000 When we reach the top end of the range, we will look across our capital allocation priorities, so returns to shareholders, portfolio actions, as well as any growth opportunities. We do recognize that we have a bit more work to do inside the target.

[Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO at Alcoa]

The adjusted debt, which we define as including the gross debt plus the pension is at $3,200,000,000 and that's above the high end of that range that we've targeted at 2,100,000,000.0 So we will work on some delevering. We do have our 2027 notes, a portion of those remain about $141,000,000 Those are now callable at par. We also have a portion of our 2028 notes that are now callable with a small premium that's about $219,000,000 So we'll look at keeping in mind that our cash target is 1,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000 We'll work on some delevering.

[Glyn Lawcock, Head of Resources Research at Barrenjoey]

Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for any closing remarks.

[William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director at Alcoa]

Thank you for joining our call. Molly and I look forward to sharing further progress when we speak again in October. And that concludes the call. Thank you.

[Operator]

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Louis Langlois, SVP - Treasury & Capital Markets
• William Oplinger, President, CEO & Director
• Molly Beerman, EVP & CFO

Analysts

• Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Alex Hacking, Equity Research Analyst - Metals & Mining at Citigroup
• Daniel Major, Metals & Mining Analyst at UBS Investment Bank
• Henry Hearle, Equity Research Associate at B. Riley Securities
• Bill Peterson, Equity Research at JP Morgan
• Chris LaFemina, Equity Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group
• Carlos de Alba, Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley
• Lawson Winder, Analyst at Bank of America
• John Tumazos, Owner & CEO at John Tumazos Very Independent Research
• Glyn Lawcock, Head of Resources Research at Barrenjoey