ENI Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 25, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Eni continues to execute its transformation plan with clear strategic intent across Upstream growth, LNG integration and new energy businesses, supported by innovative financial strategies.
  • Positive Sentiment: In H1 2025 Eni discovered ~600 million barrels of oil equivalent and started two major Norwegian projects (Johan Castberg and Malder X), setting Q4 production above 400 kb/d and underpinning full-year guidance near 1.7 mb/d.
  • Positive Sentiment: Transition businesses are scaling rapidly, with Plenitude boosting renewable capacity >30% to 5.5 GW in 2025 and Eni Life & Plenitude EBITDA set to triple by 2030 after a €2 billion Ares investment valuing Plenitude at €12 billion.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Versalis has accelerated its turnaround—closing two steam crackers early and planning new platforms to deliver ~€1 billion EBIT improvement by 2026—though it remained loss-making in H1 while ramping up efficiencies.
  • Positive Sentiment: Eni generated €6.2 billion CFFO in H1, repurchased €660 million of shares, cut net debt to €10.2 billion (pro forma leverage 10%) and aims to secure €3 billion of cash efficiencies in 2025 while keeping capex under €8.5 billion.
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Earnings Conference Call
ENI Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Eni's 2025 First Half Results Conference Call, hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer. For the duration of the call, you will be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call, you will have the opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and one on your telephone keypad. I am now handing you over to your hosts to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to our Q2 2025 result presentation. I'm pleased to say that the strong and consistent pace of strategic progress we have set in transforming Eni has continued through the first half of 2025. Our speed of action is enabled by the clarity of our strategic intent that can be summarized as. In Upstream delivering efficient competitive growth and improving the return of our portfolio, most notably through exploration success, active portfolio management, and organic production startups and ramp-ups. Integrating our equity gas production into LNG chain to maximize value. In particular, Eni is the leader in Floating LNG, which provides an opportunity to unlock large amounts of resources in associated gas or from deep water far from shore discoveries. In parallel, building new complementary and competitively advantaged energy business related to end product decarbonization, such as EniLive, Plenitude, and CCS.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Transforming the downstream and chemicals, converting these businesses to new growth opportunities, such as our plan for Versalis. Enhancing profitability and margin capture in areas such as trading to take benefit of more complex energy markets. Anticipating new trends such as data center and nuclear fusion. Critically, our business initiatives are supported and improved by unique and innovative financial strategies that disclose value, support investment and growth, and contribute to our enhanced balance sheet strength with leverage at historic lows. Executing this strategy, we expect to grow CFFO by around a total of 40% by 2030 and materially improve return on capital employed. This, in turn, drives shareholders' returns, which are our first commitment. Combining a competitive Euro-denominated dividend that has been growing at over 5% per year and is our top priority with our share buyback program.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

If we now take a look at the important developments of the year to date and the context, we continue to grow and enhance our upstream. The key engine of our organic growth remains our industry-leading exploration. In the first half, we discovered around 600 million barrels of oil equivalent of new resources, including from Namibia, Ivory Coast and Norway. In the second half, we have significant further activity, including follow drilling in Namibia, Angola, and material prospects offshore Indonesia. Our Norwegian satellite, VÃ¥r started up two major projects, Johan Castberg in March and Balder X in June, which will contribute towards driving VÃ¥r's production to more than 400,000 barrels per day in Q4 this year.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

These are the first two of five major projects in the Eni portfolio due for the first production in 2025, with Agogo and NGC in Angola, and the second floating LNG in Congo to come on stream in the second half. We are now advancing our fourth and largest upstream satellite, focused on Asian LNG in combination with Petronas in Indonesia and Malaysia. I will come back to this in a moment. In June, we also opened a new equity gas-to-LNG opportunity by signing an agreement with YPF for the Argentina LNG project, combining significant resources in the Vaca Muerta and 12 million tonnes per year floating export facility. Alongside our existing development portfolio focused on time-to-market and our continuing exploration success, we are forming compelling visibility over the profile of our long-term Upstream activities.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Alongside growing Upstream, our strategy in building transition businesses supported by aligned fresh investment is unique and delivering material value while strengthening and diversifying Eni overall returns. With the conversion of Sannazzaro into a Biorefinery, we have now four additional Biorefinery projects in pipeline, of which two are located in the Asian market. Plenitude Buying Offer to Acea Energy made in June grows the customer base by more than 10%. Parallel to the expansion of renewable capacity, indeed, that capacity growth will also be marked in 2025, growing by over 30% year-on-year to over 5.5 GW net to Plenitude, or more than 7 GW in gross terms. The growth outlook for EniLive and Plenitude, with EBITDA close to tripling between 2024 and 2030, is being recognized by important investors.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

In addition to the top-up by EIP taking their stake to 10%, we announced the EUR 2 billion investment by Ares for a 20% stake valuing Plenitude at around EUR 12 billion in enterprise value. This transaction is expected to close around the end of the year. In April, KKR topped up its stake to 30% in EniLive by investing EUR 601 million, following the EUR 2.96 billion we collected in March. Our satellite model is also adaptable to supporting a more nascent business. In May, we agreed an exclusivity agreement with GIP related to the sale of a 49.99% stake in our CCUS activities, providing aligned capital ahead of the build-out of a wider platform of CCUS project, and this is expected to close in the second half of 2025. The agreement followed the financial close reached in April with the U.K. government on our Liverpool Bay project.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Finally, our goal of improving financial performance and profitability is also focused on corporate cost efficiency. In this respect, our transformation plan for Versalis is a critical lever. In this, we are accelerating our actions. In March, we closed the Brindisi Steam Cracker, and we closed Priolo in July, well ahead of our original plan. These closures will allow us to address a significant portion of the losses through the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Together with the investment into a new platform, they will contribute to delivering a turnaround in EBIT of almost EUR 1 billion, bringing Versalis back to free cash flow break-even at the end of our four-year plan. Q2 results broadly reflect Eni's sensitivity to the scenario, and we are delivering in line with our guidance. In the upstream, production was 1.67 million barrels per day, in line with our guided range.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

EBIT for the quarter was around EUR 1.7 billion, and performance EBIT of EUR 2.4 billion was both consistent with the prevailing scenario. GGP result benefits from the positive effect of a contract renegotiation, and full-year performance EBIT is now expected to be around EUR 1 billion, capturing the original guidance upside. EniLive saw an improvement in EBITDA versus Q1, almost unchanged year-over-year. This positive momentum should be supported by typically stronger marketing contribution in Q3 and the recovery in biospread that we already saw toward the end of Q2. Plenitude was supported by retail business and continued progress in renewable productions. Both transition businesses remain on track to meet their full-year guided result. Versalis results show an improvement quarter on quarter but remain significantly loss-making. Ahead of the expected positive impact of the transformation plan now underway, the first effect of which should be observed in the second half.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Our refining operations improved on Q1 on a better margin, but were impacted by downtime at key assets. Cash flows before working capital in the quarter were EUR 2.8 billion or EUR 6.2 billion for the half-year, maintaining our efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Gross CapEx year-to-date stands at EUR 3.9 billion, and we are on track to deliver the lowered guidance of under EUR 8.5 billion for the full year, while the net CapEx is expected below EUR 6 billion, thanks mainly to the Ares investment into Plenitude and upstream valorizations. On the cash initiatives of EUR 2 billion announced with our Q1 result, EUR 1 billion has been delivered. Moreover, we have identified a further EUR 1 billion to be captured by the end of the year, raising the total benefit to EUR 3 billion.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

In the first half of the year, we repurchased EUR 0.66 billion, of which EUR 0.3 billion related to our 2025 program that we confirmed to complete in Q1 2026. Net debt fell again quarter on quarter to EUR 10.2 billion, EUR 2 billion lower than year-end 2024, and leverage stood at 19% despite the impact from Forex on equity balances. With outstanding valorization received, performance leverage was 10%, equivalent to 9% net debt to capital, the lowest level in our history. Before moving to Q&A, I want to update on an important achievement in this quarter: our Upstream combination with Petronas in Indonesia and Malaysia. Since announcing the MOU in February, significant work has continued, culminating in the framework agreement sfigned in June, setting out key principles, including the asset-level valuation of the respective contribution yield, a 50/50 split.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Work is continuing on completing financial due diligence, in defining the business plan, and in receiving the relevant approvals ahead of the completion targeted around the end of 2025. Our Upstream satellite model is proving to be a powerful means of creating critical mass and new strategic options and generating material additional cash flow. VÃ¥r, Azul, and Ithaca clearly demonstrate this. Our combination with Petronas replicates the model and will be our largest to date. Creating a leading regional player with an exceptional growth outlook in a highly dynamic area of the world where gas demand is forecast to increase substantially, and with significant capacity to independently fund its investment program. Together with Petronas Asset, the combination will combine 19 blocks across Indonesia and Malaysia, spanning production, development, and exploration activities. Five FIDs are targeted for 2026 and four more in the following years.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

We expect gross production of over 300,000 barrels per day at closing, with the prospect of over 500,000 barrels per day in four or five years. Additional exploration success offers the prospect of even higher production levels, extending well into the 2030s. As emphasized by the over EUR 10 billion of estimated unreached resources in place. Indeed, at least 10 highly probability of success, high-impact wells are planned to be drilled over the next three years, aiming to prove up this material upside. We have also agreed a mechanism for the JV to compensate the legacy acreage owner for new discoveries made, representing a further source of cash upside. In addition, we continue to expect to valorize a retained minority equity stake in containing blocks in a separate portfolio operation, likely in 2026.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

The Petronas combination is a compelling example of how Eni uses its distinctive features: exploration skills and technologies, valuable relationship, dual exploration, and satellite model. To deliver portfolio high-grading growth, cash, and ultimately value, in a way I would say is unique in the industry and is highly material to Eni. Looking ahead, the second half of the year will build on our strategic execution, speeding up growth and value delivery in 2026. Production will benefit from the startups and ramp-ups to hit around 1.7 million barrels per day full-year guidance. The third quarter will reflect this impelled growth, but also the usual seasonal maintenance activity, with the production seen at between 1.7-1.72 million barrels per day. New renewable power generation capacity will come on stream to reach the target of over 5.5 GW by the end of the year.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

We now expect CFFO in 2025 to be EUR 11.5 billion, EUR 0.5 billion higher than our Q1 outlook, and EUR 0.5 billion higher on an underlying basis than our original guidance. In addition, we realize the remaining EUR 2 billion of the overall EUR 3 billion of cash initiatives I highlighted earlier. Distribution will continue as promised, with a steady pace of buyback to recognize to our investors an attractive and resilient returns in a volatile market. We will continue to keep the company performance leverage between 15%-20% in 2025, within the planned range. On the basis of this result, our operational momentum, and with the closing of the current live deals, we can expect a positive second half of the year and an even more promising 2026 that will build on a larger, diversified, and more valuable set of assets.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Now, with the team, we are ready to answer your questions. Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Okay, thank you, Claudio. Are we going to move to questions? Good afternoon, everybody, I should say. The first question is from Josh Stone at UBS. Josh, if you'd like to ask your questions, and if I can again ask if you can keep it to two questions just so that everybody can participate. Thank you, Josh.

Josh Stone
Josh Stone
Analyst at UBS

Thanks, Gerd Kadossen and Josh Stone, everyone. The first question I'll ask is on GGP. You signed a fairly large contract with Venture Global this quarter. Starting 2030. It's significant. It's the first U.S. LNG contract you've signed. I'm sure it won't have passed you by. There's an arbitration ongoing with some of your competitors and peers.

Josh Stone
Josh Stone
Analyst at UBS

I was curious as to if you could elaborate on the terms of that contract and what gives you the confidence that these volumes will appear as promised when the project starts up. The second question, actually a bit more of a modeling question around the satellites. Your stake in EniLive has now gone to 70%, and Plenitude will go to the same level at the end of the year. It's quite intuitive to model the minority interest. In terms of the minority dividends, are you able to give any guidance there? I presume your private equity backers want to get paid at some point. Is there any dividend policy within these, and how should we account for that in our cash flow balances? That would be helpful. Thanks.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Okay, thank you for the question. The first question is for Guido, for GGP, and the second Francesco is going to answer.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

Of course, we cannot comment on the third-party contract and proceedings. We know that there is an arbitration ongoing. We know which provision has been posted by Venture Global. Of course, we rely very much on their project ability to deliver a modular plant as they did already in the past. As far as concerns the contract in itself, we've actively scouted the market. We found this project very competitive. We found it very much in line with our need to complement our portfolio of contracted volumes. As you know, we have a target to hit 20 million tons per annum and also to cover geographically the whole globe. This contract is very complementary to our current portfolio, which covers East and West Africa, Middle East, and Far East.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Yes, about the distribution policies that are related to EniLive and Plenitude, we do not disclose this value that are related to clearly reference to net results on a proportion of that. I think we can provide further details in the future, but for the time being, we are not disclosing that volume that are not particularly material in this phase.

Josh Stone
Josh Stone
Analyst at UBS

Okay, thanks.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Thanks, Josh. We're going now to Biraj at RBC. Biiraj.

Biraj Borkhataria
Biraj Borkhataria
Managing Director and Global Head of Energy Transition Research at RBC Capital Markets

Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is just on the asset sale to Vitol. There's roughly a two-year gap between the effective date and the expected close based on what you said. And the headline price. It's a project where you're obviously spending quite a lot of development CapEx.

Biraj Borkhataria
Biraj Borkhataria
Managing Director and Global Head of Energy Transition Research at RBC Capital Markets

I was just wondering if the adjustment would be in Eni's favor, i.e., the cash received would be higher than the headline value, or it would be lower? Just any kind of sense of the magnitude of that adjustment there. As we have you on the call, Claudio, I want to ask about succession planning. You've been CEO for over a decade now. Strategy in the business has changed quite a bit over that time. Just wondering if you could give any comments around whether you're looking to be present within Eni from 2026, either as exec chairman or as another term as CEO. Thank you.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Yes, it is right. You are correct in describing the deal, the consideration. They say the effective date of the deal, and clearly the closing will take into account the amount that is cashed in terms of production because both assets are producing assets and clearly in terms of investment, because as you are correct in saying, there is a ramp-up of investment for reaching the plateau of the different phases. Clearly, it is still an uncertain amount because it will be determined at the time of closing, but the consideration has to be adjusted for that amount.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

For the succession plan, what I can say is that the strength of Eni is not the CEO alone, it's not the CEO, it's the team. We have a very competent, strong team that is the strength. We built together this, I can say, fantastic strategy, very resilient, that has been able to navigate this very agitated sea.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

We are clearly inside of a succession plan. People, our management has a very strong sense of belonging, competencies, and knows the company and knows the strategy. I just can say that there is no worry. I think Eni is strong because it's Eni, because we have a culture, because we have strong management.

Biraj Borkhataria
Biraj Borkhataria
Managing Director and Global Head of Energy Transition Research at RBC Capital Markets

Okay, understood. Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Biraj. We'll move now to Peter Low at Rothschild. Peter, if you're there, if you can ask your questions.

Peter Low
Peter Low
Managing Director Energy Equity Research at Rothschild

Yeah, hi, thank you. Yeah, the first was just on the tax rate. It's coming a bit lower than kind of your previous guidance for a couple of quarters now. Can you perhaps just elaborate on what's driving that and kind of where we should expect it to be going forward? The second was on the refining market. We've seen a step up in margins in the third quarter.

Peter Low
Peter Low
Managing Director Energy Equity Research at Rothschild

There seems to be mixed views out there as to whether it's transitory or maybe a bit more structural. I'd be interested in your perspective on what's driving that and then whether there's any reason you won't fully capture the improvement in 3Q. Thanks.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

So Francesco is going to answer for the two questions.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

See, about the tax rate, you know that we drive a tax rate in the year between 50%-55% related to clearly an assumption on scenario, performance of the different business, and the different ways of return and results related to the business are impacting the tax rate. Another element that is more important that is becoming relevant is the conversion of loss-making business. Make Italian assets profitable and not instead, they say, a factor weighting negatively on the tax rate.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

And another factor, this will allow also to restate certain tax credits that were considered not recoverable, assuming a long-term loss-making activity. So the conversion of biorefineries, the conversion of crackers to new opportunities as the battery storage will help also to reduce the tax rate. We can now provide a lower expectation for the tax rate closer to the 50%, so the lower boundaries or lower range of the original assumption. I'll leave that to Pino for the question about the margins.

Giuseppe Ricci
COO of Industrial Transformation at Eni

No, about our vision on the refining margin, what we are seeing is a sudden increase in the margin starting from the end of June, early in July. What we expect is that for some months, this situation could remain because the storage of products is very low, the crack spread of gas oil is very, very high because of the stress in the ban of Russian crude and Russian gas oil. This is very positive for at least for all the driving season.

Peter Low
Peter Low
Managing Director Energy Equity Research at Rothschild

Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Peter. We're going to move now to Irene Himona at Bernstein. Irene.

Irene Himona
Managing Director and Head of European Oil and Gas at Bernstein SG

Thank you. Good afternoon. My first question on Plenitude is, as you clearly are moving towards the 2028 capacity target of 10 GW and then 15 by 2030, can you provide a timeline for that satellite turning cash flow neutral? Will it be by 2030 or later? And then my second question on this very material new upstream satellite in Indonesia. To better appreciate the materiality near term, can you perhaps give us a sense of the uplift to your 2026 production, CFFO, etc.? Thank you.

Stefano Goberti
CEO at Plenitude

Yeah, good afternoon and thank you for the question, Irene. This is Stefano Goberti. For Plenitude Global, Plenitude Global is a growth company today. We, of course, we will reach our 10 GW, financing that growth by 60%-70% from cash from operation generated by the company, the remaining through debt. We want to maintain a very strong financial statement, balance sheet, and so the net debt to EBITDA ratio will be below 3 in our statutory numbers. The growth will continue up to when our retail domestic client will be served with our production from the renewable plants. We expect this to happen between 35 and 40. Before that date, also the cash flow will turn to positive.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Yeah, for Indonesia, it's clearly a big project, a transformational project for us, not just for where it is, but also for the dimension and the potential they can express. We cannot disclose, for sure will be positive and giving an upside in 2026. We cannot disclose exactly figures in terms of returns, financial returns, or dividend or production. It's something that we're going to clarify in February when we will present the four-year plan. But clearly, it's one of the best deals we have done in the last few years and will be very accretive for Eni overall.

Irene Himona
Managing Director and Head of European Oil and Gas at Bernstein SG

Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Irene. We are going to move to Henry Tarr at Berenberg. Henry?

Henry Tarr
Henry Tarr
Director and Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research at Berenberg

Hi, Ian, thanks for taking my questions. The first one is just on the YPF Argentina project. Could you give more color just around what might need to happen for it to reach FID?

Henry Tarr
Henry Tarr
Director and Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research at Berenberg

Are you happy to sort of push ahead with potentially large-scale LNG projects currently, just given the sort of large ramp-up of capacity that we're seeing in LNG towards the end of the decade? The second question is just on the buyback. Clearly, the balance sheet continues to be in good shape. You have had strong divestment proceeds coming in. What could cause you to reassess the buyback as you look towards the rest of the year? Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Okay, we do answer on the YPF and then I take care about the buyback.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

Yeah, of course, quite a number of steps need to be made and fine-tuned with YPF, which includes the final project configuration and the final field development plans, commercial agreements, and then offtake agreements and the project financing. This would require some time. Our expectation is to finalize all of this by the very end of the year or beginning of next year.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Good. For the buyback, we said that we presented during the our Q1 the buyback as a floor. Clearly, the trend is very positive. We are improving. The execution of the strategy, I think, is really very positive. The leverage, all the KPIs are good. We are going to see in the next month if we are able to continue, we are very, I'm convinced and convinced that we can continue this trend. We can consider, considering our balance sheet and all what I said, we can consider to improve buyback. We will be clearer in the next months. There is this possibility.

Henry Tarr
Henry Tarr
Director and Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research at Berenberg

Many thanks.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Henry. I would just actually just do compliment one thing that Stefano said earlier on. We do disclose the net debt position of Plenitude Global, so you can see the capacity that the company has, just to add to Stefano's comments. We're going to move now to Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia?

Lydia Rainforth
Lydia Rainforth
Managing Director of Energy and Energy Transition Research at Barclays

Thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone. Two questions, if I could. First, just come back to the EUR 3 billion cash management. Obviously, that's quite a long way from where we were at 1Q. Can you just talk through that a little bit more? Have you been surprised at how easy it's been to actually kind of manage that cash and to get those savings? Does it make you think about the rest of the business, where else you could make savings? I just want to touch on the pockets of financing that you're tapping.

Lydia Rainforth
Lydia Rainforth
Managing Director of Energy and Energy Transition Research at Barclays

When I take a step back and look at the transactions that you've done, it's a combination of national companies, trading companies, private equity. What advantages over traditional sources of financing and partners do you think that gives you both short-term and long-term? Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Before asking Francesco to talk about the EUR 3 billion, first of all, it was not an easy exercise. It's not easy. It's not something that we start one week ago. It's something that we work and all the strategy is working. It's clearly part of the efficiency that we are finding also with the new model, with the business combination, the satellites. We are trying to delete all the overcost or additional overlap we have in the structure.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

As I said before during the presentation in February, this model is not just to give us dividend or the capacity to invest or to give value, but it's also a complete new organization charter for the company. Clearly, step by step, you can improve. We didn't need for this, for today, to express an additional EUR 1 billion, but after the work, we got this EUR 1 billion more. It was work, not easy because it's organizational work. Then we can be more flexible on our stocks with the new organization and the other financial move that Francesco made. That is the main reason. We are not defending ourselves because we need more cash. We are adapting our organization to the new models. Francesco, you want to say something more?

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Yes. What is clear is possible in all organizations to think and work differently than in the past. There are a lot of tools, financial tools, or capability to redesign what was a typical cycle, for example, for payment, a typical cycle for storage, etc., that could be shortened, improved in terms of financial needs. It's a sort of just-in-time logic that you had, for example, in the automotive industry 20 years ago. This gives you a lot more availability and efficiency in terms of use of cash because at the end of the day, the cash for an oil and gas company is expensive. Outside of this company, there are other suppliers of capital and cash that are much more, they say, cheaper, and therefore optimizing the overall cost.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

The second question about new partners. We open up to new partners. So traders or. National energy company funds. I think that also that is linked to the new organization that we are expressing with the model, with the satellite model, because we give more opportunities. Clearly, these partners are very good partners, especially when we work in a local situation like in Indonesia and Malaysia with the state company. We go faster. They know the asset. They know the country. They are quite, they are in the need to give priority to their own production, to their own project. The same need we have. They do not have any other priority than give value to their own resources. We have other funds. The funds are clearly, has been very key. These private partners in developing our transition satellite, that is good because they do diligence. They go deep. They dive deep inside your model. They challenge you.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

It is not typically the role of another oil and gas company because they put money. We run the show. We are in charge. We are operator. We define a different case. It is a different logic. Once again, the model that we started three years ago that now is going very well and is giving a very strength to our not just balance sheet, but to our organization, open up new possibility. More focused, more faster. That for us is essential. We need to go fast. We do not want to lose money and time. When there is resources, we try to find the partner, the right partner that is focused to deliver as soon as possible return on that resources. That are the right partners.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Lydia. We are going to move to Spain now. Alejandro Vigil at Santander. Alex, are you there? Yes.

Alejandro Vigil
Alejandro Vigil
Head of European Integrated Energy and Chemicals Equity Research at Santander

Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is about the, you can share with us the opportunity of Acea Energia. You can discuss this potential investment. The second is hearing all these comments about satellites. Just a question about if Namibia could be another potential satellite considering the process that GALP is now currently trying to execute there. Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Thank you, Alejandro. You can buy Acea, please. Yeah, I bought Acea, not Namibia. Namibia, no. At the moment, do not try to do something that is not in your own competence.

Stefano Goberti
CEO at Plenitude

No, no, no, no, no. Acea transaction. We submitted a binding offer, and the Board of Directors at Acea accepted the binding offer. You know that we offer a value for the company, an enterprise value of EUR 460 million, plus a potential another EUR 100 million to be verified in terms of KPI and target KPI on the quality of the customer base in June 2027. Plus the cash position normalized for another EUR 130 million. The operation for us is pretty in line in our strategy because we will acquire, counting the customer base at the end of 2024, 1.4 million clients, 70% of which are power clients. Perfectly in line with our strategy to increase the power customer base. I would say a very good operation, and we hope to complete it as soon as possible. The process is taking the necessary authority, authorization, mainly from Antitrust. We envisage by the first half of 2026 to close the operation.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

Namibia is a clear example of how effective our business model with the satellite. When we created the satellite of Azule, the objective was, of course, to develop the resources in the country, but also to expand regionally. Namibia is a clear example of that strategy materializing into an execution.

Alejandro Vigil
Alejandro Vigil
Head of European Integrated Energy and Chemicals Equity Research at Santander

No interest in the GALP process.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

No, we are not interested. We have found our resources. We have a new exploration well coming. We are focused on our block and our resources at the moment.

Alejandro Vigil
Alejandro Vigil
Head of European Integrated Energy and Chemicals Equity Research at Santander

Excellent. Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Okay. We are going to move, thank you, Alejandro. We are going to move from Alejandro to Alessandro Mediabank, Alessandro Pozzi. Are you there?

Alessandro Pozzi
Equity Analyst at Mediobanca

Yep. Yeah. Thanks, John. I have two questions. The first one is going back to your opening remarks around Versalis. You talked about the acceleration in the restructuring plan.

Alessandro Pozzi
Equity Analyst at Mediobanca

Can you maybe talk about what would be the next milestones in the second half and into next year for the restructuring of Versalis and how do you expect chemicals margins to evolve? The second question always on the outlook, but this time on biofuels. One of your competitors reported really good results the other day. Maybe can you talk about the dynamics in biofuel market as we go into the second half and 2026 again? Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

Okay. Thanks for the question, Adriano, and then Stefano for biofuel and for Versalis.

Adriano Alfani
CEO at Versalis

Thanks, Alessandro, for the question. As you might have seen from the public announcement, we decided to speed up a little bit the action plan that we announced about the closing of the cracker in Brindisi and the closing of the cracker in Priolo. When you close big machine, the positive impact starts to materialize after 12 months.

Adriano Alfani
CEO at Versalis

That said, in the second half of 2025, we are going to see some positive effect in the range of EUR 90 million, almost EUR 100 million. This is coming from more or less EUR 60 million-EUR 65 million from the shutdown of the two big machines and another EUR 20 million-EUR 25 million from the development of the new platforms. Clearly, when I say the project, you start to see the big effect by the second half of 2026, so the effect of this efficiency and this shutdown will be in the range of EUR 250 million on a yearly base. You start to see from the second half of 2026. You start to see more in 2026 coming from the development of the new platform plus a more efficiency plan.

Adriano Alfani
CEO at Versalis

Going to your question about how we see the scenario, honestly, we see a lack of meaningful economic recovery in the chemical sector in Europe. We see some slight improvement in the scenario, but as I said, there are very slight improvements. All these numbers that we provide to you are based on pretty much a flat scenario. Yeah.

Stefano Ballista
CEO at Enilive

Yeah, Alessandro, thank you for the question. Definitely, market dynamics are improving significantly. The reason we can simplify are twofold. From one side, we are seeing additional demand. This is in line with our expectation. We said demand would have come, for example, from Germany or from South close to the second half of the year. This is what's going on. Second, there are a set of very good news, both in the EU and in the U.S., about future demand targets.

Stefano Ballista
CEO at Enilive

An example: Germany published a proposal on the Renewable Energy Directive 3 deployment. This proposal is moving the 14% of GHG reduction to 25% at 2030. They are even setting a target for 2040, a very relevant one. Second, they are proposing to get rid of the double counting feedstock. This means a significant increase of demand, given that every HVO will count for one and not for two. In the US, we have a similar situation. We have a proposal from the EPA for the new renewable volume obligation for 2026, and it is a big step up in terms of demand, above 50%. On top, actually, we got eventually approved the new LCFS target in California from 13% GHG to 22% starting 1st of July. This has been delayed compared to initial assumption, but now it is there. It is going to start to make the difference.

Stefano Ballista
CEO at Enilive

Finally, it is not a detail. We got clarification about the new clean fuel production credit, the so-called 45Z, that was fully off uncertainty until a few weeks ago, and clarification creates value. These are pretty much the main reasons, structural reasons underlying the market upside and improvement you are seeing right now.

Alessandro Pozzi
Equity Analyst at Mediobanca

What could be the demand uplift from the new proposals in Germany, especially the double counting, the removal?

Stefano Ballista
CEO at Enilive

On Germany, you mean the, yeah, the expectation is to have an uplift around 1.5 million tonnes. That is a rough number, but it is a very significant one, but we will consider it. Actually, we are already seeing an increase of around 500,000 this year in Germany, and that we are coming from the previous year of pretty much no demand. This is all on top of all the other major trajectory.

Alessandro Pozzi
Equity Analyst at Mediobanca

Okay.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Alessandro. We are going to move to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin.

Martijn Rats
Martijn Rats
Head of Equity Research for European Energy at Morgan Stanley

Yeah, hi, hello. I wanted to follow up briefly on the comments that there is, at least depending on, I would imagine, the macro and other things, but that there is a potential for the buyback to go up. If I'm not mistaken, on page three of the statement, there is guidance that the pro forma leverage ratio will go up back into the 15%-20% range by the end of the decade from the 0.1% level now. It does suggest quite a bit of an increase in gearing in the second half of the year, which in and of itself does not point in the direction of a lot of room for the buyback to go higher. I was wondering how these two things relate to each other.

Martijn Rats
Martijn Rats
Head of Equity Research for European Energy at Morgan Stanley

Perhaps as part of that question, maybe you can give us a little bit of a refresher on the timing of the various disposal proceeds that are coming in in the next couple of quarters. Maybe there's more that falls over the second half of this year. Is there a timing impact there that leads you to think, that leads you to suggest, that the buyback might go up, even though the gearing in the second half itself might still trend higher?

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Thank you, Martin. First of all, you have to consider that a range of 15%-20% is a wide range, and it was what we presented at the beginning of the year. This 15%-20% means that potentially you could go, let's say, towards the lower bar of this range.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Secondly, there is, in the scenario, an assumption that certain businesses will be less generative, clearly because we are assuming eventually, in terms of price of oil, EUR 68 consequently to the average for the full year, or certain returns that are lower. For example, we are assuming a quite conservative view on margin, downstream margin. We are not probably also taking into account some upside that are emerging in biofuel. You have also to consider that in the pro forma logic, the disposal plan has already happened in terms of event. This doesn't mean that it's ended because we have a negotiation and opportunity that could emerge that are not included within the evaluation or the range. It's a view, it's a conservative approach that takes into account all risk and disposals, and also a certain scenario, conservative and prudent scenario.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

The two sentences about potential buyback uplift and the 15%-20% are fully compatible one with the other.

Martijn Rats
Martijn Rats
Head of Equity Research for European Energy at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thank you, Martin. We are now going to move to Bertrand Hodee at Kepler. Bertrand?

Bertrand Hodee
Bertrand Hodee
Head of Oil and Gas Research Team at Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes. Hello. I have two small questions. The first one is a clarification on the Argentina LNG. Do you intend to take an FID early 2026, or it was just the closing of the, I would say, agreement with YPF? The second question is also related to LNG, but to Mozambique. Eni has and partners have awarded partial awards to contractors. What will frame Eni at this stage to take a full final investment decision? What will be the stake of Eni after everything's been closed on Coral Norte? Thank you.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

On Argentina, yes, the plan is to have an FID by the first quarter of 2026, while the agreement with YPF on how to progress the project will be reached before that, of course. On Mozambique, we have, as you may have noticed, we've got the government approval, full approval, and we are now in the process to progress and finalize the JV FID. However, we have already secured the long lead items, we have already secured the yards, and all the critical elements to secure the schedule of the project.

Bertrand Hodee
Bertrand Hodee
Head of Oil and Gas Research Team at Kepler Cheuvreux

Your final stake?

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

Sorry, say it again.

Bertrand Hodee
Bertrand Hodee
Head of Oil and Gas Research Team at Kepler Cheuvreux

Because on Coral South, your participating interest was, if I remember well, 25%. On Coral Norte.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

We have 50%. We have 50% because we have an agreement with one of the other partners to swap interest between the onshore and offshore project, and so we have taken a higher stake in the offshore.

Bertrand Hodee
Bertrand Hodee
Head of Oil and Gas Research Team at Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Got it.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Bertrand. We're going to move to Matt Lofting at JP Morgan next.

Matt Lofting
Matt Lofting
Energy Equity Research Analyst and Executive Director at JPMorgan

Matt, if you're there. Thanks, Clau, for the presentation. Congratulations on the strong strategic execution through the first half of the year. I think it's been very impressive and important to acknowledge. Two questions. First, the production ramp-up. The guidance implies a strong ramp second half of the year versus first half. If you could just remind us of the, let's say, the key milestones over the next sort of two, three months to de-risk the full-year target and perhaps where any risks could sit as well.

Matt Lofting
Matt Lofting
Energy Equity Research Analyst and Executive Director at JPMorgan

Secondly, the cash efficiency or cash initiatives that you highlighted in the press release this morning, increasing from EUR 2 billion to EUR 3 billion. It struck me that EUR 3 billion is quite a significant proportion of CFFO and FCF on an underlying basis. I wondered if you could just expand there on the main initiatives and how perhaps underlying versus transitory some of them may be. Thank you.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

On production ramp-up, as you know, this was a very key year for the organic growth. We had five major projects coming: twin Norway, twin Angola, and one in Italy. Basically, three of them have been delivered. The last two are Johan Castberg and Balder X in Norway. Johan Castberg already reached its plateau production, while Balder is in its ramp-up phase, which will be completed by the end of the year. We have a project in Angola coming very soon.

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

It's an FPSO of 170,000 barrels per day as overall capacity. We have also another project coming towards the end of the year, the NGC. It's a gas project to feed the Angola LNG plant. We have the second floating LNG on Congo coming by the end of the year. The whole production profile was backloaded. We will have a pretty strong exit rate, which will. Set ourselves for a great 2026 also.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

About the cash initiative, clearly, these are mainly related to working capital management. Some cost efficiency, so nothing to do with the cash flow from operation or marginal impact in the cash flow from operation. Everything else is related to other lines of the cash.

Matt Smith
Matt Smith
VP and Manager of Data Science and Analytics at Bank of America

Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Matt. We're now going to move to Massimo Bonisoli at EQUITA. Massimo?

Massimo Bonisoli
Financial Analyst at EQUITA

Good afternoon. Thank you. I have just one question left on Libya. If you can provide an update on the status of your Libya gas project, specifically the structures A and E, and what is the expected timing of first gas, please?

Guido Brusco
COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni

On Libya, actually, we have more than one project ongoing. We have three projects, one which is monetization of some gas in one of our Mediterranean platforms, which will come on stream by the Q3 of next year. Then we have a compression project to expand the plateau of one of our offshore platforms, which is forthcoming by the end of the year, would help to maintain the plateau. And we have the A and E structure where we are executing the main contract, and the first production is expected by the end of 2027, the first production.

Massimo Bonisoli
Financial Analyst at EQUITA

Thank you.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Okay, thanks, Massimo. Into the final stretch, we have Paul Redman at BNP Paribas. Paul, are you there?

Paul Redman
Paul Redman
Director and VP Energy Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane

Yes. Thank you very much for allowing me to ask some questions. I've got two relatively brief ones, I think. The first one's just on the CFFO guidance upgrade. If I run the sensitivities and add a little bit more on for GGP uplift, I'm just trying to work out why the increase in CFFO from last quarter, i.e., the guidance for the year, is not as much as the sensitivities would suggest. And secondly, when we talk about these working capital initiatives for 2025. Shall I class these as one-offs? They can't be replicated in 2026. Is that how I should think about it? Thank you.

Francesco Gattei
Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni

Yes. About the cash flow from operation increase, this is related to the fact that substantially you have to take into account that the scenario is not just Brent and FX. Scenario is biofuel, is power, is margin, is chemical, is a lot of stuff. Therefore, these are clearly not completely reflected in the benchmark you provide and the simple calculation of three metrics. There is an uplift on the scenario, on valuation and performance versus the scenario, and this is what is happening, taking into account all the variables and not just the three that you are referring to. About the cash initiative, you have to consider cash initiative as an improvement in the way you manage your cycle of payment. Therefore, the time you apply this on the first step is a step up, and then you continue to roll over this initiative in all the remaining year and the following year. This is a way to change the way you manage your cycle of payment and your cycle of storage.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Thanks, Paul. Finally, and thanks for your patience, we are going to move to Matt Smith at Bank of America for the final question. Matt, if you are still there.

Matt Smith
Matt Smith
VP and Manager of Data Science and Analytics at Bank of America

Hi there. Thanks, John. Thanks, everyone. Just one left from me, which I do not think we have covered, coming on to GGP gas trade in another strong quarter. Once again, for Eni, just it has been an interesting quarter for trading performance across the space. At some point into good results, some less good, and usually talking about too much volatility for the traders in some sense. I just wanted to pick up, obviously, how you saw the opportunities in the quarter clearly played out quite well, but how you see the rest of the year in the current conditions. How conducive is it for that business to keep outperforming, please? Thank you.

Cristian Signoretto
Global Gas and LNG Portfolio Director at Eni

Thank you for the question.

Claudio Descalzi
CEO at Eni

In terms of performance, this quarter has been marked by two elements. One is the one-off settlement that we discussed before. The second one also was the fact that the volatility, as you said, has been somehow less than the first quarter of 2025, but still in a good shape, especially, I would say, on the LNG global scenario because of the volatility between JKM and TTF and oil. That allowed us to take advantage of few arbitrage opportunities globally, and that set up that result for this quarter.

Jon Rigby
Head of Investor Relations at Eni

Okay. Thank you, Matt. Thank you, Christian. That wraps us up for the second quarter call. Thank you to everybody for attending. Any follow-ups, then myself and the team are available for your questions. If we do not speak, have a great summer, and we will see you again in the autumn. Goodbye.

Analysts
    • Stefano Ballista
      CEO at Enilive
    • Peter Low
      Managing Director Energy Equity Research at Rothschild
    • Francesco Gattei
      Chief Transition and Financial Officer, COO, and General Manager at Eni
    • Lydia Rainforth
      Managing Director of Energy and Energy Transition Research at Barclays
    • Jon Rigby
      Head of Investor Relations at Eni
    • Paul Redman
      Director and VP Energy Equity Research at BNP Paribas Exane
    • Alessandro Pozzi
      Equity Analyst at Mediobanca
    • Irene Himona
      Managing Director and Head of European Oil and Gas at Bernstein SG
    • Alejandro Vigil
      Head of European Integrated Energy and Chemicals Equity Research at Santander
    • Guido Brusco
      COO of Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni
    • Biraj Borkhataria
      Managing Director and Global Head of Energy Transition Research at RBC Capital Markets
    • Stefano Goberti
      CEO at Plenitude
    • Claudio Descalzi
      CEO at Eni
    • Cristian Signoretto
      Global Gas and LNG Portfolio Director at Eni
    • Josh Stone
      Analyst at UBS
    • Adriano Alfani
      CEO at Versalis
    • Bertrand Hodee
      Head of Oil and Gas Research Team at Kepler Cheuvreux
    • Matt Smith
      VP and Manager of Data Science and Analytics at Bank of America
    • Matt Lofting
      Energy Equity Research Analyst and Executive Director at JPMorgan
    • Massimo Bonisoli
      Financial Analyst at EQUITA
    • Giuseppe Ricci
      COO of Industrial Transformation at Eni
    • Henry Tarr
      Director and Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research at Berenberg
    • Martijn Rats
      Head of Equity Research for European Energy at Morgan Stanley
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