Century Aluminum Q2 2025 Earnings Report

Century Aluminum EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -$0.05
• Consensus EPS: $0.34
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.39
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Century Aluminum Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $628.10 million
• Expected Revenue: $606.10 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$22.00 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Century Aluminum Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2025
• Date: 8/7/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, August 7, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and operates an alumina production facility in Iceland, and a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Century Aluminum Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Century generated $74 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2, driven by strong operational performance and rising U.S. Midwest premiums.
• Positive Sentiment: U.S. Section 232 tariffs were raised to 25% in March and to 50% in June, lifting spot Midwest premiums to about $1,600/ton and spurring higher domestic orders, with full benefit expected by Q4.
• Positive Sentiment: Refinanced $400 million of 7.5% senior secured notes with new 6.5% notes, simplifying the debt structure, lowering interest costs, and extending maturities, while maintaining liquidity of $363 million.
• Positive Sentiment: Announced a restart of 50,000 metric tons at Mt. Holly with ~$50 million capex to restore annual capacity to 220,000 tons by mid-2026, boosting U.S. output by nearly 10% and creating new jobs.
• Neutral Sentiment: Q3 adjusted EBITDA is guided at $115–125 million, reflecting higher lagged tariff benefits offset by slightly elevated energy costs and currency headwinds, with stronger Q4 earnings expected at current spot prices.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's Century Aluminum Company Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. My name is Makayah, and I'll be your moderator for today's call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for your questions and answers at the end. At this time, I'd like to pass the call over to our host, Ryan Crawford. Ryan, you may now begin today's call.

[Ryan Crawford, Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations Manager at Century Aluminum Company]

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Geary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer and Peter Trepkowski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. Turning to Slide one, please take a moment to review the cautionary statements with respect to forward looking statements and non GAAP financial measures in today's discussion. And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Thanks, Ryan, and thanks to everyone for joining. We find ourselves today in an excellent market environment for Century. So I'll start by reviewing our second quarter performance and the strong macro conditions we've had so far in 2025. Then walk through our operational performance for the quarter and an update on some of our strategic initiatives, including our very exciting announcement regarding the restart of 50,000 metric tons of additional production at Mt. Holly.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Pete will then take you through the details of the Q2 results and our third quarter outlook before we turn it over for questions. Let me begin with safety, which is core to everything we do here at Century. Our safety performance has shown improvement across our assets in the first half of the year. This is rewarding to see as we continue to invest substantial time and effort towards improving the safety culture at each of our locations. We've been specifically focused over the first half on the launch of our new safety program.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Mt. Holly will be the pilot site for this new initiative that we have been working on with DuPont Safety Systems and we are really excited to get it off the ground as we head into the second half of the year. Turning to financial results. Century generated $74,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. Rising Midwest premiums offset lower realized LME and European premiums as well as higher than expected market energy prices in the second quarter.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Realized LME prices averaged $2,540 in Q2, while realized Midwest and European premiums averaged $850 and $220 in the quarter. Midwest premium saw significant positive improvement during the quarter as we began to see the benefits from President Trump's Section two thirty two tariffs impact our results. As we have discussed, in February, President Trump restored the effectiveness of the Section two thirty two program by revoking all country and product exemptions and raising the tariff rate for aluminum from 10% to 25%. These became effective on March 12 and due to our contractual lags first rolled through our results in Q2. In June, President Trump took additional action to raise the Section two thirty two tariff to 50% in order to support the domestic industry and incentivize domestic production to ensure our national security. Following this announcement, spot Midwest premium today is sitting at close to $1,600 per tonne or $0.72 per pound. Just please remember, while these tariffs became effective in Q2, they will only partially affect our results in Q3 and then be fully reflected in our results in Q4.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Pete will give you more details here. The best part of this news is that the Section two thirty two program is working as we have seen strong domestic demand for all of our products and our customers are increasing orders. And as the largest producer of primary aluminum in The United States, Century is doing its part to build and secure the aluminum production that is so essential to U. S. National security needs.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

More on that at the end of my remarks. In July, we were also very pleased to complete the refinancing of our outstanding 7.5 senior secured notes in Icelandic Caps House loan facility with the issuance of our new $400,000,000 tranche of 6.5% notes. Pete will walk you through the details here, but we are really pleased to simplify our debt structure, lower our interest costs and push out the maturities with this transaction. Turning to Slide four. Power prices fell quarter over quarter, but unusually warm summer temperatures led to slightly higher than expected energy costs for Century in Q2.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

These temperatures persisted into July, but we have now returned to more normalized levels. With natural gas prices also falling to $3 per MMBtu, we expect power prices to continue to move lower as we enter into the fall shoulder season. Turning to Page five, as you can see in the top left graph, we continue to expect constraints on new global supply to drive a global market deficit in 2025. Global aluminum supply remains challenged with China very near its 45,000,000 ton production cap and limited announced new global projects. We believe demand growth will continue to outpace supply in 2025 and for years to come.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Global inventories remain near post financial crisis flows in Q2 at 47 We are seeing U. S. Demand for domestically produced builds continue to grow this year following the effectiveness of the revised Section two thirty two tariffs on aluminum in March. Century's domestic billet shipments are up eight percent year over year in the first half as downstream customers look to shift supply chains back to The U. S.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Following the expansion of the Section two thirty two program to cover extrusions. As we begin to enter into the 2026 billet season, the strong domestic demand growth should be supportive of higher value added aluminum premiums in 2026. Just as a reminder, our value added products in The U. S. Are sold on an annual basis, so we would expect to see those increased billet prices flow through the results beginning in the first quarter of next year.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Turning to alumina, global supplies remain stable with market pricing remaining in normalized levels in Q2. Spot API prices are approximately $375 today. The Atlantic region where our Jamalco operations are located has become increasingly short alumina, resulting in an expanding Atlantic premium for alumina of about $30 today. This is a good example of how Jamalco, like Century Smelters, benefits from its strategic geographic locations close to its customers in short markets. The bauxite market also continued to experience turbulence, especially in Guinea, where operating licenses for several key producers have been suspended and in some cases revoked.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

These disruptions have lent continued support to seaborne bauxite prices and in turn the alumina price. Please remember that Jamalco does not have exposure to seaborne bauxite prices as the plant is totally self sufficient through its long term mining licenses, another key strategic differentiator for the plant. Turning to Page six, you can see that spot coke, HFO and caustic soda prices remain near their year to date average prices. Okay, on to operations. Our assets continued to deliver strong operating results in Q2. Starting with Seabury, the plant had another excellent quarter producing strong operating results despite the very hot summer weather. The plant also completed its planned major maintenance program in the Carbon Plant on schedule and without any impact on production levels.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

The team at Seabury continues to deliver quarter after quarter. In Iceland, Grundartangi continued to ramp its Villa Castells production as it optimizes performance during its first full year of operations. Grundartangi did see a slight production volume headwind of about 3,000 metric tons in the quarter as it experienced a failure in one of its electrical transformers. While the plant was able to continue full operations with redundant equipment, it will run on slightly lower amperage until a replacement is on-site. Jamalco produced and targeted production levels in Q2 and remains focused on executing its major capital improvement program to return the plant to its nameplate capacity of close to 1,400,000 tons.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

The new steam power generation turbine that we discussed in our last call is now on-site and the installation and integration process is underway at the plant. We continue to believe the turbine will be operational in the 2026, which will enable Jamalco to be fully self sufficient in its power generation and lower its cost structure by reducing costly third party power purchases. At Hawesville, the strategic review process has gone well and we are now negotiating final terms. We expect to conclude the strategic review process by the end of Q3. Just before I turn the call over to Pete, I'd like to thank President Trump again for the significant actions that he and his administration have taken to restore American manufacturing and stand up for American workers.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

The Section two thirty two tariffs have truly enabled a new future for The U. S. Aluminum industry. And we believe a key part of that future will be our new smelter project. Once built, the new smelter will be amongst the most modern and efficient smelters in the world.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

It will represent the first new smelter built in The U. S. In fifty years and will double the size of the existing U. S. Industry, creating over 1,000 full time direct jobs and over 5,500 construction jobs.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Combined with a second new smelter project announced since President Trump took office, President Trump's policies have enabled a future where we could see US production triple by the end of the decade. This is a monumental change from the last twenty five years where failed trading policies led to the destruction of American manufacturing and American jobs. And to further Century's commitment to U. S. Aluminum production, we are very pleased to announce today that we've made the decision to restart the last 50,000 metric tons of capacity at Mt.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Holly and return the plant to full production. This project will increase Mt. Holly's production to over 220,000 metric tons per year at nearly 100 full time U. S. Manufacturing jobs at the plant and represent an investment of approximately $50,000,000 We expect first hot metals from the incremental pots in the 2026 and should be at our full 220,000 ton run rate by the end of Q2.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

We are confident that the combined efforts of Mt. Holly team and our valued partners at Santee Cooper will successfully complete this critical project and ensure the long term viability of excellent plant. Pete will walk you through more details on the project spend in a bit. Century's Mt. Holly expansion will increase total U.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

S. Primary aluminum production by nearly 10%, replacing imported metal. This project along with our new smelter project would not have been possible without President Trump's Section two thirty two program. We look forward to working with the Trump administration to continue to grow U. S.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Aluminum production to meet our national security needs. Pete will now take you through our financial performance in more detail.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Thank you, Jesse. Let's turn to Slide seven and review our Q2 performance. On a consolidated basis, second quarter shipments increased to approximately 176,000 tons, an increase of 4% sequentially, reflecting strong operational performance across all of our smelters. Net sales for the quarter were $628,000,000 a $6,000,000 decrease primarily due to lower third party alumina sales, partially offset by higher shipments and all in metal pricing. For the quarter, we reported a net loss of $5,000,000 or $05 per share.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Our adjusted net income was $30,000,000 or $0.30 per share excluding exceptional items. Adjusted EBITDA was $74,000,000 for the quarter. As we've discussed, the Section two thirty two aluminum tariffs were increased to 25% with no country exemptions on March 12, While the Midwest premium began to increase from 25% tariffs in Q2 as a result, lower realized LME and Europe duty paid premium partially offset this benefit. Moving on, we continue to make progress on improving our balance sheet during the quarter. Liquidity increased to $363,000,000 up $24,000,000 quarter over quarter and our cash balance stood at 41,000,000 Net debt was relatively flat from the prior quarter at $446,000,000 As you saw us announce in July, we successfully completed the refinancing of our $250,000,000 senior secured 7.5% notes with new $400,000,000 senior secured notes at 6.8%, extending the maturity to 2,032 and simplifying our debt structure.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

We are pleased to substantially lower our borrowing costs, which speaks to the improvements in our business over the past several years. The use of proceeds will be to pay down our existing credit facilities across The U. S. And Iceland, including our Icelandic casthouse facility which will lower overall interest expense for the company. We will maintain our net debt level from before the transaction after we pay down the outstanding credit facility amounts.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Our priority to lower our debt and achieve the $300,000,000 net debt target remains unchanged. Overall, our Q2 results continue to reflect operational and capital discipline. Now let's turn to Page eight and I'll provide a breakdown of adjusted EBITDA results from Q1 to Q2. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter decreased $4,000,000 to 74,000,000 Realized LME of 2,542 per ton was down $11 versus prior quarter, while realized U. S.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Midwest premium of $850 per ton was up $247 reflecting the increase in Section two thirty two aluminum tariffs from 10% to 25 in March. And our realized European duty paid premium decreased $115 per ton to $220 Higher Midwest premium is slightly offset by lower LME and European premium, which when combined together contributed an incremental 11,000,000 compared to the prior quarter. Energy costs were lower driven by improved market energy prices versus the prior quarter. However, in June, we saw unusually warmer temperatures to start the summer and market energy prices ended the quarter higher than anticipated, muting the previously anticipated benefit from prior quarter. Despite this jump in June, energy prices drove a $2,000,000 improvement quarter over quarter.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Alumina and our other key raw materials were an $8,000,000 headwind in the quarter in line with our previously provided outlook. Currency headwinds impacted the quarter by $4,000,000 from our foreign operations, primarily from wages denominated in local currencies. The weaker dollar drove the Icelandic krona to appreciate by more than 8% to The U. S. Currency quarter over quarter.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

We expect this to continue into the third quarter and I will discuss the impact of that on our Q3 projection in just a moment. As Jesse discussed, we completed the maintenance project in Seabreeze Carbon Plant and realized the OpEx headwind of $10,000,000 in the quarter as anticipated. We ended the quarter strong from an operational perspective and saw a $5,000,000 benefit from volume and mix. Now let's turn to Slide nine and look at cash flow. We began the quarter with $45,000,000 in cash.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

We funded $18,000,000 of CapEx in the quarter that went primarily towards our ongoing investments at our Jamalco business. We also paid $14,000,000 in normal interest in the quarter. We will see a reduction in future interest payments as the recent refinancing decreased our coupon to 6.5%. We continue to accrue 45X tax credits. As of June 30, we have a receivable of $195,000,000 related to the full year twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four and first half twenty twenty five U.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

S. Production. We continue to expect to receive the FY 2023 credit in cash imminently and the remaining FY 2024 amount over the next six to nine months. Working capital was a build this quarter, but mostly a neutral impact for the first six months of the year. We ended Q2 with $41,000,000 in cash and strong liquidity in place to support our strategy going forward including organic growth projects such as Mt.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Holly restart. As Jesse discussed, we are really excited to announce the restart of our currently idle capacity at Mt. Holly bringing back 50,000 tons of production to reach production volume of over 220,000 tons per year. The project spend will be approximately $50,000,000 to restart those last 90 pots, which will almost be a straight line spend through the completion of the project by the 2026. To be clear, that's about $4,000,000 per month over the next year.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

We will also have some working capital to procure additional raw materials to support the energizing of these pots. The additional working capital is approximately $15,000,000 and will mostly come in 2026. We expect to fund the project through our current balance sheet. The financial benefits of the project are incremental volume at favorable margin and fixed cost absorption. At spot pricing levels, we expect the project to nearly pay back our investment by the 2026.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Now let's look ahead to the next ninety days. At current realized prices, we expect Q3 adjusted EBITDA in the range of 115,000,000 to $125,000,000 For Q3, the lagged LME of $2,495 per ton is expected to be down about $45 versus Q2 realized prices. The Q3 lagged U. S. Midwest premium of $14.50 dollars per ton is up $600 versus Q2 and partially reflects the Section two thirty two aluminum tariff increase from 25% to 50%.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

The European delivery premium is expected to be $200 per ton in Q3 or down about $20 per ton. Taken together, the lagged LME and delivery premium changes are expected to have a $50,000,000 increase to Q3 adjusted EBITDA when compared with Q2 levels. U. S. Energy prices remain slightly elevated in Q3 thus far, but we have started to see historical levels return in August.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Lower oil prices will also benefit the price of heavy fuel oil, a key input at our Jamalco refinery. At these prices, total energy headwinds should reduce adjusted EBITDA by $5,000,000 Cove, pitch and caustic prices have all remained steady in recent months and are expected to be flat in Q3. We continue to expect further headwinds from currency into the third quarter at our foreign operations on the U. S. Dollar impact on wages and other local currency denominated expenses.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

We are estimating a $5,000,000 impact in Q3. As previously discussed, we completed the carbon plant maintenance project at our Sebree, Kentucky facility in Q2 as anticipated and expect our Q3 OpEx to improve by 5,000,000 to $10,000,000 Volume and mix are expected to decrease by 0 to $5,000,000 from Q2 levels. We also include the estimated hedge and tax impacts to help model our business. We expect a 5,000,000 to $10,000,000 headwind from realized hedge settlements and a zero to five tax expense both flowing through the Q3 P and L and impacting adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share. As a reminder, our appendix details the full hedge book and continues to show the vast majority of LME and regional premium volumes are exposed to market prices.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Finally, we are very excited to deliver results in such a favorable market environment. Because of our contractual lags on our revenues, the strong price environment we see today will continue to drive our earnings growth beyond Q3 and into Q4. With spot LME prices exceeding $2,600 per ton and Midwest premium at $0.72 per pound or approximately $1,600 per ton, We are extremely well positioned to capitalize on this momentum and achieve additional earnings growth in Q4. We thank you for your time and look forward to taking your questions.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from the line of Kat Jinsik with BMO. May proceed.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Thank you for taking my questions. Louis, starting on Mt. Holly, can you talk a bit about your sourcing plans for raw materials, especially alumina?

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Sure. Hi, Katya, and thanks for the question. Yes, we'll be able to service the additional alumina needs for Mt. Holly within our already set alumina book for 2026. So we don't see any changes necessary to our current alumina sourcing planning in order to serve the additional alumina needs for the smelter.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

You can continue to use the alumina information that we include in our slide deck on page 18 to model our alumina exposure for 2026.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

And then maybe just on the 45x credit, I'm assuming that that incremental 50,000 tonnes is going to get that benefit as well. Is that fair? And how much could it be if that's true?

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Yeah. That's that's correct. So you can just take those incremental tons and compare that to our existing tons and our existing credit, which we said should average in the 70,000,000 to 80,000,000 range, and you should get sort of a pro form a amount of additional 45 x credit for those additional 50,000 tons.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Yeah. And, Katya, I would just add. It's Pete. Obviously, 45 x is just The US production, so just look at The US production volume for that.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

I know you mentioned that the manufacturing credit receivable is still at $195,000,000 I thought some of that around $60,000,000 was expected this quarter. Can you talk about maybe is there any are there any delays or when could we see some of that credit actually in cash?

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Yes. Thanks, Katya. It's Pete again. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we currently continue to expect the FY 'twenty three amounts imminently and expect our FY '24 amount over the next six to nine months. So just to elaborate, we do have some visibility into the tax return and we have a certain level of engagement with the IRS And we can see that our return is in the final stages of of processing, and that's for the f y twenty three amount.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

We did just file our f y twenty four return, and and that's why I said we expect that one over the next six to nine months.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

And that should be a good time frame going forward, as we process for FedEx credits in the future.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay. Thank you. I'll hop back into the queue.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Thanks, Katya.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Nick Giles with B. Riley. You may proceed.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Thanks, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Guys, nice to see the Mt. Holly announcement here. I read in the release that some final details are subject to the definitive agreement with Santee Cooper and then also some economic incentives provided by Berkeley County in in South Carolina.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Are you able to give us a sense for those incentives or how much they ultimately played into the decision?

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Those are not public, Nick, so we can't just talk about those at this time. It is obviously helpful and important for the restart, and the state of South Carolina has been a very good partner in making sure that those important manufacturing jobs stay in the state. So we're very thankful to the work they've done. But both the power contract and those incentives, while we have agreements in principle, we'll just need to get nailed down over the coming weeks. Don't anticipate any problems there.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

And, I would just like to thank our partners at Santee who we've been partners with for nearly fifty years now at Mt. Holly.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Got it. Maybe next one. Just was hoping to get an update on Hawesville. How should we think about your appetite to continue to pursue a deal with a developer versus a potential restart?

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Yes. That process, as I said, continues, But we are now in final negotiations. So we do make or we are making good progress. And we would expect that we'll finish sort of the entire strategic review process, which includes both those negotiations and also our analysis on restart over the next quarter and be able to really make a decision on on go forward for Hawesville at that time. But the process continues to be good and constructive, Nick.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

We continue to have positive engagement, and and and those negotiations are are are moving forward well.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Good to hear. Just one more if I could. Can you remind us just how should we think about milestones with regard to the new smelter? I mean, would site selection be kind of the first announcement? Is that kind of a could we see something there before year end, or should we look to kind of twenty twenty six for that to progress further?

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Yeah. Nick, the the first milestone or the next milestone that you'll see will likely be that site selection, which is tied to coming to an agreement on the energy. So you'll see those two announcements likely at the same time. And while I won't sort of handicap the time frame there, we do continue to work actively on that. As you might imagine, that is one of the more complex parts of developing the project, given the large amount of energy that's needed and given the significant state incentive packages, that will also play a role inciting that project.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

But so I'll just say we continue to work hard on it, make making positive progress, and we'll come back to you as soon as we can. But that's the next announcement. The next stage would be to do the next phase of engineering work, which will be site specific, which will give you another six to nine months of engineering time. So again, like we said on the last call, you're probably looking in the 2026 before you see any major spending on the project on the capital side.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Got it. Very helpful. Well, guys, appreciate the update and continue the best of luck.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Thank you, Nick.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Thanks, Nick.

[Operator]

There are no questions registered at this time. The next question is from the line of Katja Gensik with BMO. You may begin.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Hi. Thank you for taking my follow-up. Maybe just quickly, you mentioned that in 2Q, we're not going to fully see the benefit from the Midwest premium as it stands currently. And the LME aluminum price is also at higher levels than what's baked into your 2Q guide. So if we assume your sensitivities and the current spot prices, is it fair to assume that your EBITDA generation could be in the range of $140,000,000 to 150,000,000

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Thanks, Katya. Great great question. Let me walk you through it. I I think I think you hit it right on the head. But as I mentioned in my remarks, because of the contractual lags, we expect that earnings growth beyond q three and into q four at these spot levels.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

So today, you know, LME is is sitting just above 2,600 a ton. And if you compare that to our our q three realized expectation of about 2,500, that's about a $100 per ton increase. So if we do realize that LME for a full quarter, as you probably already did in the sensitivities, that's about, you know, it's 46,000,000 for a year for a $100 per ton change or about 11,000,012 million dollars per quarter. That's just for LME. We also see spot Midwest premium of $0.72 today.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

That's nearly $1,600 per ton. And again, if you compare that against our Q3 realized expectation today of $14.50 dollars per ton, that's approximately $150 per ton better. So again, looking at the sensitivities, if you took that and compared it against the realized price for a full quarter spot against realized, you should expect to see another $15,000,000 uplift on Midwest Premium into Q4 from the Q3 levels. So together, about $12,000,000 of LME and another $15,000,000 Midwest premium. So I think that takes you right about into the range that you were quoting.

[Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Perfect. Thank you so much.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Nick Gauss with B. Riley Securities. You may begin.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

With all that's going on in The U. S, I didn't want to leave your Iceland footprint out here. Can you just speak to progress at Grundartangi on the cast house? I mean, how have operations been going there? And then can you also speak to just kind of value added premiums in Europe?

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

What are your expectations today? Anything would be helpful there. Thanks.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Sure, Nick. Yes. The cast house project continues to go well. It's a great brand new cast house. A lot of people at The U.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

S. Assets are gelled to that brand new shining cast house that we have in Iceland. And as you might imagine, as you start up a new cast house, there is a ramp up period where you're both ramping up production and also sort of dialing in your processes and getting a lot of new people up to speed on what really is a skilled workforce to cast billets. So that process continues to go well. They continue to make progress, and we're really excited to kind of go into the 2026 billet season really running on all cylinders.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Lots of progress there. Good things to come. And the market has continued to accept that new billet with open arms. People are liking what they're seeing. I think the quality has been really good.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

So all good on that front. More generally, on the market side, Europe has been weaker than what we've seen in The U. S, of course, and that's been persisting for a number of quarters now. We have more recently seen billet premiums firming a bit as the European duty paid premium has gone down on commodity grade aluminum. The billet premiums have actually expanded a bit to fill in the gap.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

So that's been a positive development there. Obviously, good for us with the additional volumes we'll be bringing in next year. So all is looking pretty good there. It is summer in Europe today, so we'll wait for summer to end and come out ready to go into the fall season and and into 2026.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Great to hear. Maybe just one more on Jamalco. Can you remind us of what should we be penciling in for CapEx there in 2026 as it relates to incremental production?

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Nick. It's Pete again. We do break out sustaining and investment capital in our appendix for the whole business. But I can just kind of give you a sense of what sustaining and investment CapEx we expect for Jamalco in '26. It's basically for our 55% interest about 10,000,000 to $15,000,000 in next year for sustaining as well as the investment.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

So as Jesse said earlier, we are continuing our investment program at Jamalco mainly right now it's the steam turbine generator, but we have identified some other projects to get the business back to its nameplate capacity and get it back to the second quartile of the cost curve. But for right now and and we'll update this again on the q four call as we always do, but I would expect, to have that repeat in '26. So again, 10,000,000 to 15,000,000 in sustaining as well as 10,000,000 to $15,000,000 in investment at Chamotco next year.

[Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities]

Very clear. Thanks again, guys. All the best.

[Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer at Century Aluminum Company]

Thanks, Nick.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are currently no questions registered. So at this time, I'll pass the call back over to our management team for any further remarks.

[Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Century Aluminum Company]

Okay. Thank you, and thanks to everyone for joining. And we'll talk to you guys again on the Q3 call. Thanks a lot.

[Operator]

Thank you all. That concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. We hope everyone have a wonderful day.

Participants

Executives

• Ryan Crawford, Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations Manager
• Jesse Gary, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
• Peter Trpkovski, EVP, CFO & Treasurer

Analysts

• Katja Jancic, Metals & Mining Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Nick Giles, Senior Research Analyst at B.Riley Securities