Churchill Downs Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 29, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Record third-quarter performance: Net revenue reached $696 million and Adjusted EBITDA $264 million, with record EBITDA in both wagering services and gaming. Free cash flow totaled $603 million through the first nine months.
  • Positive Sentiment: Regional gaming asset sales are progressing: Churchill Downs expects to execute transactions for its nine wholly owned regional gaming properties by year-end. Proceeds are expected to reduce leverage, fund share repurchases and support selective high-return investments; management also authorized a new $750 million buyback.
  • Positive Sentiment: Derby-related growth initiatives are gaining momentum: Derby 153 ticket sales are reportedly about 25% ahead of last year’s pace, while the Thoroughbred Championship Series is intended to expand wagering, admissions, sponsorship, media rights and licensing opportunities across a five-month racing calendar.
  • Neutral Sentiment: HRM expansion offers upside but execution risks remain: Kentucky HRM properties delivered strong growth, and the Rose in Northern Virginia continues to improve, while Rockingham Grand is scheduled to open in mid-2027. Central Virginia venues face pressure from the Petersburg casino and a new live-racing tax, which reduced Virginia Adjusted EBITDA by $6 million excluding a prior-year insurance recovery.
  • Positive Sentiment: Balance-sheet flexibility is expected to improve: Management expects bank leverage, currently 3.8 times, to decline below 3.0 times after the regional asset sales, while continuing to invest in electronic table games, TwinSpires product innovation and growth projects.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Churchill Downs Q3 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Churchill Downs Incorporated third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. We ask all question and answer participants to please limit themselves to one question. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Sam Ullrich, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. After the company's prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions. The company's 2026 third quarter business results were released yesterday afternoon. A copy of this release announcing results and other financial and statistical information about the period to be presented in this conference call, including information required by Regulation G, is available at the section of the company's website titled News, located at churchilldownsincorporated.com, as well as in the website's investor section. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that some of the statements that we make today may include forward-looking statements. These statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Speaker 1

All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statements in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 10-K. Any forward-looking statements that we make are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in yesterday's earnings press release. The press release and Form 10-Q are available on our website at churchilldownsincorporated.com. I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Bill Carstanjen.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Sam. Good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Bill Mudd, our President and Chief Operating Officer, Marcia Dall, our Chief Financial Officer, and Brad Blackwell, our General Counsel. I will begin with the highlights of our third quarter performance. I will then provide an update on the status of the sale of our regional gaming properties and share some additional insights into our strategic plans going forward. Marcia will follow with more detail on our financial results and capital management strategy, and then we will take your questions. First, regarding our third quarter results. We delivered record net revenue of $696 million and record Adjusted EBITDA of $264 million. We also delivered record Adjusted EBITDA for our wagering services and solutions segment and our gaming segment. Turning to the sale of our regional gaming assets.

Speaker 2

As I discussed on our earnings call last quarter, we have been working with Macquarie Capital to sell nine of our wholly owned regional gaming properties. The process is going very well. We expect to announce executed transactions for the properties by year-end. While the broader M&A environment may be feeling the effects of increased interest rates and consumer uncertainty, our regional gaming assets have attractive characteristics that distinguish them. They are generally newer and better maintained than comparable properties and generate strong cash flow with high free cash flow conversion. We intend to use the sales proceeds to significantly reduce leverage, to repurchase shares, and to selectively invest in Churchill Downs Racetrack and other high-return growth opportunities. On Tuesday of this week, our board of directors authorized a new $750 million share repurchase program, reflecting our confidence in the execution of the asset sales process.

Speaker 2

As we look ahead, our company's strategy is focused on our three highly valuable platforms. Churchill Downs Racetrack and the Kentucky Derby, our HRM businesses, and our TwinSpires business. Each combines strong cash generation, durable competitive advantages, and attractive opportunities for profitable growth. These three cornerstones form the foundation of a more focused portfolio designed to compound shareholder value over the long term. Churchill Downs Racetrack and the Kentucky Derby, increasingly all of Derby Week, is the crown jewel of our portfolio. It is a unique global sporting and entertainment event combining tradition, community, competition, and celebration in a way few events can replicate. Our opportunity is to expand the relevance, reach, and earnings power of Derby Week while preserving the traditions that make it so special.

Speaker 2

We plan to accomplish this by making smart capital investments, continuing to enhance the guest experience, elevating the quality of racing, introducing innovative wagering opportunities, expanding social media and television viewership, and growing our sponsorship platform. Derby Week is positioned to be a meaningful driver of Adjusted EBITDA growth in the near term and for years to come. Regarding the 153rd Derby in early May of next year, demand is very strong. At the end of the third quarter, ticket sales for Derby 153 were well ahead of a comparable pace for Derby 152, demonstrating its enduring appeal and the increasing consumer demand for premier live sports and entertainment experiences.

Speaker 2

Construction is underway on Victory Run, which will be located just past the finish line between Skye Terrace and the first turn section of the racetrack. We are on schedule and on budget to complete this project in time for Derby 2028. Compared to Derby 2026, we will have an interim upgraded seating experience in this area for Derby 2027, with covered stadium seating and enhanced amenities to ensure our guests enjoy a premium experience. When completed for Derby 2028, Victory Run will introduce a spectacular spectrum of private suites, indoor and outdoor dining, and covered box seats. Regarding sponsorship growth, we were pleased to announce a multi-year partnership with Visa as the preferred payment partner of Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby.

Speaker 2

In addition to the sponsorship and hospitality relationship, Visa will also create opportunities for their clients and cardholders to access exclusive Derby Week offers and experiences, while making their purchases simple, secure, and seamless. Visa joins a dynamic lineup of signature partners for the Kentucky Derby, including Woodford Reserve, Longines, Ford, and SAP. Sponsors are increasingly recognizing the desirable demographics of our guests, the value of our television viewership and digital audiences, and our extensive social media engagement. The heightened visibility is attracting interest from many of the most well-respected brands, and we remain focused on broadening and strengthening our sponsorship portfolio in the years ahead. The 2027 Kentucky Derby will be the kickoff for the Thoroughbred Championship Series. The TCS will consist of two divisions, the Derby division for the colts and the Oaks division for the fillies.

Speaker 2

The Derby division will be a six-race series that begins with the Kentucky Derby, includes the Belmont Stakes, a race at Churchill Downs over the Fourth of July weekend, two races at Saratoga Race Course over late July and late August, and finally ends with the championship at Churchill Downs Racetrack at the end of September. In partnership with the New York Racing Association, the owner of Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course, the Derby division will connect three of the world's most iconic racetracks into a season-long competition over five months to determine the best three-year-old colt. In addition to national television broadcasts, the series offers an incremental $5 million in prize money beyond the purses offered for each race, creating a compelling economic incentive for the best horses to compete throughout the championship series.

Speaker 2

Turning to the Oaks division for the fillies, we will have four races beginning with the Kentucky Oaks on the Friday before the Kentucky Derby. As you will recall, the Kentucky Oaks was broadcast on NBC in primetime for the first time earlier this year to rave reviews and strong ratings, illustrating there is a national audience for Oaks Day and the competition of the world's best three-year-old fillies. The second race will be at Belmont Park on July 5, the day before the Belmont Stakes, and the final two races will be at Saratoga in June and August. The three highest-ranked horses in the Oaks division will split a $1 million prize pool in addition to the purse money that they otherwise win for each race. Then there is a twist.

Speaker 2

The winner of the Oaks division will be invited to participate in the TCS Championship Race of the Derby division in September to compete against the boys for an opportunity to win up to an additional $1 million bonus. We believe the winner of the Oaks division, going against the best of the boys, will drive heightened excitement and national interest. The best filly deserves the chance to take on the colts in what will be an electrifying challenge that is unique in sports. Today, horse racing captures significant attention around individual marquee events, particularly the Kentucky Derby. The TCS is designed to connect these moments into a continuous story that unfolds throughout a season. Sports fans naturally follow championships, rivalries, leaderboard standings, and athletes over time, and we believe the TCS format will create that same opportunity for horse racing, giving fans more reasons to stay engaged.

Speaker 2

By encouraging the best horses to compete against each other, we believe both dedicated enthusiasts and casual fans will develop stronger emotional connections with the stars of the sport, while increasing visibility and demand for the highest level of Thoroughbred racing. A season-long championship series leverages the economic flywheel we have established with the Kentucky Derby to create long-term economic value, from expanded media rights, new hospitality experiences, sponsorship activation, licensing opportunities, and new wagering possibilities across the series. The TCS is a strategic and capital-efficient platform to modernize how fans engage with horse racing. We believe it has the potential to become an important catalyst for expanding horse racing's audience, both domestically and internationally, while further enhancing the value of Churchill Downs Racetrack and the Kentucky Derby.

Speaker 2

While we do not have any current plans to do so, we will consider adding new venues, races, and even new series over time. Turning to our HRMs, which are the second cornerstone of our strategy, we see long-term growth through introducing more leading gaming content and new products, including electronic table games, along with selective expansion. We are pleased with our HRM performance across all of our properties in Kentucky and are encouraged with the continued long-term growth potential for these venues. We are also happy with the performance of our roulette electronic table games in Kentucky. These ETGs are attracting new customers and supporting the reactivation of inactive HRM customers. We are planning to roll out craps ETGs around the end of the year. We are also working to finalize the development of blackjack ETGs in 2027.

Speaker 2

Ultimately, the greatest contribution to our venues will be realized when we have a suite of ETG offerings. Thus, we are very focused on getting craps and blackjack developed and deployed, first in Kentucky, but then also we hope in Virginia. Speaking of Virginia, the Rose in northern Virginia continues to grow nicely as it further develops the market. It delivered strong growth in rated and unrated play, both quarter-over-quarter as well as sequentially. This also reflects the relative strength of the consumer in this market. We believe the Rose has significant long-term potential for further growth, and we remain very encouraged. In central Virginia, our venues face competitive pressure from the new casino in Petersburg, which opened this past January. Importantly, we are seeing evidence that Petersburg is expanding the overall market rather than simply redistributing existing gaming revenue.

Speaker 2

As the market matures, we believe that the larger addressable market creates opportunities to both attract new customers and rebuild visitation with respect to customers who are now going to Petersburg. We will continue to adjust our marketing programs and enhance guest services to position our central Virginia properties to compete effectively in this evolving market. We received this week final county approval to relocate and expand our Collinsville HRM venue to a new location in Henry County. The new site will be closer to the North Carolina border, approximately 45-60 minutes from Winston-Salem and Greensboro. We expect to finalize an agreement in the coming days to acquire the land for a new 150-unit HRM venue. We believe this will be a successful investment that exceeds our return targets with real upside potential, given the opportunity to capture a portion of the North Carolina market.

Speaker 2

We will know next week the results of our two referendums in the town of Pulaski and in Amherst County, both in the western part of Virginia. If these referendums pass, we will have the opportunity to further expand our HRM footprint in these underserved markets with a total of two facilities, each with 150 machines. The HRM regulatory structure in Virginia is unique. We have the right to deploy 5,000 HRMs across 10 sites and can move both the sites and machines around the state, subject to certain limitations, to optimize the overall performance. We currently have approximately 4,700 HRMs deployed across the Commonwealth, and these three expansion opportunities would represent an incremental 415 HRMs. We have the flexibility to reallocate HRMs from other areas, including from central Virginia, to optimize the value created by our right to have 5,000 HRMs.

Speaker 2

In New Hampshire, Rockingham Grand Casino is on track to open on time and on budget in mid-2027 at The Mall at Rockingham Park in Salem, New Hampshire, right at the Massachusetts border. We are creating an exciting entertainment venue to serve this very attractive market that we expect will provide significant growth for us in the coming years. We are really excited about this project and very encouraged by the development of the market over the last year as other venues have opened. Regarding TwinSpires, our third cornerstone. TwinSpires is the largest online wagering platform for horse racing and a strategically important distribution platform for our broader integrated racing offering. We continue to expand its reach and engagement through product innovation and broader direct-to-consumer and business-to-business distribution. We continue to see wagering growth, EBITDA growth, and opportunities to expand distribution with our B2B partners.

Speaker 2

We have introduced new products such as Jackpot 8, where a bettor can win a significant payout for picking the first eight finishers of a race in exact order. Easy Bets is another new wagering product where a bettor can wager on either all the odd-numbered horses or even-numbered horses in a race. TwinSpires has also successfully launched several enhancements leveraging AI, such as Paddock PRO AI and AI Race Preview to expand bettor engagement, especially among our VIP customers. TwinSpires will continue to invest and innovate to build on its clear leadership position in horse racing. In summary, we are committed to growing the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Racetrack through thoughtful, disciplined execution. We are also focused on growing our HRM and TwinSpires businesses while continuing to refine our portfolio around unique, high-performing assets that provide multiple catalysts for growth and free cash flow generation.

Speaker 2

At the same time, we remain committed to exiting the regional gaming business. The combination of the sales proceeds from our regional gaming process and the strong cash flow generated from our ongoing businesses will enable us to pay down debt, repurchase shares, and selectively invest in our businesses. Our strategic decisions, disciplined capital allocation, and strong balance sheet positions us to drive sustainable long-term growth in Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Finally, we are pleased to welcome Michael Tucker to the board of directors. Mike has over 30 years experience successfully investing in sports, entertainment and leisure companies. Mike's deep investment experience, strong financial acumen, and extensive knowledge of market dynamics and strategic capital allocation will be invaluable as we continue to evolve and grow. With that, I'll turn the call over to Marcia, and then we will take your questions. Marcia?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'll review the key drivers of our third quarter financial performance and then discuss capital management. Starting with our third quarter financial results. As Bill noted, we delivered record third quarter revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. Regarding our live and historical racing segment, our Kentucky HRM properties delivered record revenue with Adjusted EBITDA increasing 10% year-over-year. Our Southwestern and Northern Kentucky HRM venues contributed double-digit growth and Adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year quarter. Our Louisville HRM venues also had a strong quarter. Growth in Kentucky was driven by strong top-line performance and disciplined cost management. Revenue trends across these markets continue to demonstrate resilient consumer demand. Turning to Virginia, the year-over-year comparison includes a one-time business interruption insurance recovery in the third quarter of last year related to our Northern Virginia property.

Speaker 3

Excluding this one-time item, Virginia Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $6 million compared to the prior year quarter. As Bill discussed, our Central Virginia HRM venues were impacted by competition from the temporary casino in Petersburg. Central Virginia was also impacted by approximately $5 million of expense related to a new tax on live racing days that was effective July 1st of this year. Our Northern and Western Virginia HRM venues continued to deliver solid growth. Since opening, The Rose in Northern Virginia has delivered sequential quarterly growth and GGR per machine per day, supported by expanding guest awareness, effective marketing, and higher spend per visit. These trends reinforce our confidence in the continued development and opportunity for meaningful growth in this market. Turning to our gaming segment, Adjusted EBITDA increased 4% compared to the prior year quarter.

Speaker 3

Our wholly owned regional gaming properties continued to deliver strong performance with nearly all properties growing as compared to the third quarter of last year. Overall, third quarter same-store margins at our wholly owned casinos were consistent with the prior year quarter. Finally, a few comments on overall consumer trends. We saw notable improvement compared to the prior year quarter as well as sequentially. Higher value rated play contributed to growth, while our lower value unrated segments remained resilient and generally consistent with the prior quarter trends. Turning to capital management, our strong operating performance continues to translate into significant free cash flow. Through the first nine months of the year, we generated free cash flow of $603 million, or $8.59 per share.

Speaker 3

This strong free cash flow generation provides us with significant flexibility to pay down debt while investing in high return growth opportunities and returning capital to our shareholders. We spent $57 million on maintenance capital through the first nine months of the year. We now expect full year spend of $90 million-$100 million on maintenance capital in 2026. We spent $119 million in project capital through the first nine months of the year. We now expect full year spend of $160 million-$180 million on project capital in 2026. We expect to spend between $200 million and $250 million on project capital in 2027. We repurchased more than $48 million of our shares during the third quarter and an additional $76 million from October 1st through October 27th of this month. This week, our board authorized a new $750 million share repurchase program.

Speaker 3

The new authorization reflects our confidence in the execution of the regional gaming asset sales, our strong cash flow outlook, and the long-term value of our company. We also recently announced our board of directors approved a 7% increase in our dividend, which will be paid out on January 5, 2027. This will be the 16th consecutive year of increased dividends per share for our company. We ended the quarter with bank leverage of 3.8 times, supported by strong operating cash flow. Based on our current capital plans, we expect bank leverage to remain around 3.8-3.9 times through year-end and decline below 3.0 times following completion of the regional gaming asset sales. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Bill so that he can open the line for questions. Bill?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Marcia. Okay, everybody, we're ready to take your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. One moment please. Our first question comes from the line of Barry Jonas with Truist.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Wanted to ask about TCS. Can you maybe just help frame the expected economic drivers and business mix

Speaker 4

I guess what's a reasonable timeline to ramp? Ultimately, how big do you think this can get? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thanks, Barry. Appreciate the question. Couldn't be more excited about TCS. It's something that hasn't existed in horse racing, which has historically been built around specific marquee events that haven't really been successfully linked together, at least not sufficiently in recent times. The idea was to take some days that already existed around which there was at least a lot of internal within the industry excitement, and also add some new days, particularly at Churchill Downs around the Fourth of July, and then in the September Championship to create entirely new big days. How we think about this from a business perspective and from a monetization perspective, you just go back to the Derby flywheel that we talk about. I think you'll see wagering right away. I think you'll see significant wagering contributions quickly and right away.

Speaker 2

These are going to be great races with well-known horses. What the fans, both casual and serious hardcore fans like, is the very best racing against each other. So forcing or encouraging these horses to back-to-back race against each other is going to be great for wagering. We think also we'll immediately start that portion of the flywheel around admissions revenue, ticketing. That's a big part of it. Then as we demonstrate that success, we'll be able to accelerate sponsorship and certainly licensing. So media rights, we're working on that. That'll be a work in progress as we figure it out. I'm excited to kick this off, and I think it'll be big from the very beginning.

Speaker 2

But remember, we're just starting this, so we've got to ramp it up and we've got to prove it, and we've got to answer 1,000 little questions as we deliver a new product to the consumer. Everything focused on reaching beyond that hardcore industry fan to get to those casual fans that we know are out there because they all show up to watch the Derby. Last year, 24 million of them.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

Speaker 5

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. Just following on that, maybe more of a near-term Derby question. Obviously, the earlier part of the Derby Week is one of the longer-term tailwinds. What can we kind of expect for next year? What is sort of on tap programming-wise? Either which day or which events that you can kind of point out for how we can think about incremental growth in 2027?

Speaker 2

Yeah. Brandt, thanks for that question. We saw great success in 2026 with the Derby media fan engagement through the roof. We are building on something that puts us in a great position. As I mentioned in my earnings comments where we are now, 2027 Derby versus 2026, we are ahead on all the key metrics, and nothing is more encouraging than that. As we look towards building the customer proposition for 2027, you are going to see us focus as we did in 2026, but even more so on Derby Week. We think we found the formula for each day, where each day is unique, each day is special, and each day can have a program built around it. So whether it is Oaks, like you saw last year, it was on NBC for the first time. They were very pleased with the ratings. We were very excited about the ratings.

Speaker 2

Next year, it is back towards that is a national televised event. So you have Derby on Saturday, Oaks on Friday, Thurby, Wednesday, 502'sDay, Opening Day. Every day there is a significant theme around which we rally consumer participation and build. You will not see us change that formula for 2027. You will see us go harder and invest more in building those out.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Thanks, everybody. I wanted to just go back to the issue of sponsorship. The complexity of the question that I think we're all grappling with is the opportunities to expand sponsorship around the Derby, which we've seen from your announcement on Visa, which is a positive step. That being wrapped into, and/or combined with TCS. Anything you can do to help us think about that sponsorship opportunity would be really helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

David, I appreciate that question. We were really excited about the Visa deal. That was a nice win for our team and a nice win for our partner at Visa. As we look forward now, a big key for us as we push to the next level of sponsorships is really focusing on the TCS. The fact is we need more content. Our sponsors, our fans, our viewers, they all like what we have with Derby and Derby Week. For us, it's pushing beyond that to develop more content, to develop more events around which we can build every element of our flywheel, including sponsorships. I think you'll see us focus not just in 2027, but beyond, on how we can incorporate what we're doing with the TCS to give our sponsors more assets and more properties around which they can derive value.

Speaker 2

We'll be working not only with our own current sponsors and with our folks at Churchill Downs Racetrack, but with our partners at the New York Racing Association, who own Belmont Park outside of Manhattan, and then Saratoga, to see what we can do to drive our pipeline, which is already really strong, what we can do to really further monetize that and expand that as we go from a week of greatness with the Derby to five months of assets and properties around which we can build.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Politzer with JPMorgan.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to talk about Virginia a little bit. I think you're adding a little bit of new supply there, or relocating it, and then I think you have two HRM locations on the referendum in the next couple of weeks. Can you just talk about how you think about supply and demand in this market, and maybe how we should be thinking about underwriting organic EBITDA growth going forward? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure, Dan. Happy to address that. First, I'll start with Northern Virginia and the Rose. That's a 6.5 million person market, or 275,000 people who are driving by our facility every day on I-95. I was really, really pleased with the trajectory of that property over, really since it's opened, but particularly over the last couple of quarters. We're growing every quarter over quarter, and also sequentially. More of the same there. We still have a long way to go to tap that market fully, to develop that market. It's an immature market that has a lot of opportunity, a lot of upside. I like what we're doing in Northern Virginia. When you start thinking about other regions of Virginia, you get to appreciate what a puzzle Virginia is.

Speaker 2

We have this unique right with our 10 licenses in the jurisdiction and our 5,000 machines to move machines and licenses around based on what we see in the marketplace. In Central Virginia, I like that market, but we have new competition there. Still love our facility, still love their win per day, still love their EBITDA contributions, but there is competition in that market. Some of that will drive an expansion and growth of that market, but we also have to deal with the competition in the market. That's an example of let's right-size those properties in that market. Let's not overreact to new competition. Let's just right-size our marketing programs, our number of machines, our business proposition in those markets, and then let's look at the state as a whole to decide where else we can put machines.

Speaker 2

We always have our expectations of what they will do when we put them there, but then we can see how they do, and if they are better than we think, great. Maybe we invest more, maybe we introduce more supply. If they are not quite what we think, well, then we move supply around to different parts of the state. I would just encourage all of you to look at Virginia as a state the same way we do, which is we have the ability to surge supply based on what we see from a demand perspective in different regions of the state. You will see that over the very near term, and you will see that over the long term. That is a unique and truly special option we have with how the regulatory and legal infrastructure for gaming for us is designed in the state.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Bill, I know these things are hard to talk about a little bit, but just wondering, and I am sorry if I missed it, but can we get a small update on the asset sales process and where you sit? Maybe just helping level set expectations around either types of buyers or types of interest you are receiving, and I think more importantly, timing on should we expect multiple things at different periods or maybe something a little bit more lump sum? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Sure, Shaun. How are the asset sales going? They are going great. We are pleased with the process. We are planning on executing transactions at year end. Very pleased and very confident about the process and where we are in the process and how the next several weeks are going to go. As to the nature of each transaction, I think you might have been referring to, is it one big transaction or a series of smaller transactions? It is a series of smaller transactions. Each property has been marketed individually, so it can be the case that there might be some that go to the same buyer, and it can be the case that they all go individually. That remains to be seen. The short answer is full speed ahead. We feel very good about where we are.

Speaker 2

We expect to execute transactions by the end of the year, and the process has been what we hoped and expected it would be.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon with Macquarie Capital.

Speaker 9

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Bill, at the gaming show earlier this month, G2E, there was a lot of buzz around just additional content for HRMs from a lot of the equipment suppliers. It seemed to be a bigger focus than in years past. Can you talk a little bit more about what this could mean for driving win per days? Then you kind of touched on the ETG segment, where that is and where that total addressable market could be within your portfolio. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Chad. I remember when we opened Derby City Gaming in Louisville, we only had a single manufacturer. We opened that facility originally with one gaming manufacturer. If you think about how that compares to Class III facilities you see in Las Vegas or even in all the regional casinos throughout most of the country, you realize what a product disadvantage that is. Nevertheless, Derby City Gaming took off like a rocket and we've built it ever since. The story of HRMs for us has been a story of attracting additional game manufacturers and getting them to do the work with us to convert some of their Class III titles to HRMs. That's an ongoing process. That is a constant ongoing process. The development of games in the country is really oriented around Class III, so that's where they're first being built and developed.

Speaker 2

Our task is to work with those manufacturers to get them to convert those titles, which can take some work, to convert those titles to HRM titles as well. That's an ongoing process that we've been working on, and we're far from done yet. There's still plenty of manufacturers and plenty of titles that we want to add so that we can expand our floors and offer the full range of products that people find in Class III competitors. Then another key component for us are electronic table games. That's a process that's near and dear to my heart. I think it's an important strategic component of the positioning of these properties, both in Kentucky and in Virginia over the long term. Our team, we've really worked hard to encourage our team and to encourage potential suppliers to help develop those products.

Speaker 2

We've been successful in roulette. We've been very, very pleased with roulette's performance in Kentucky, but the true value of electronic table games for our HRM venues really is going to be a story of a suite of products, not just a single product, not just a single game like roulette, but a suite of games. That's why we've been focused on craps. We're very encouraged and excited about craps because we've seen it. We think that will be a big win for us in our facilities, but we also need blackjack, and we're working very hard on that. In our journey, we're still very much on the early end with electronic table games, but this is where you do the real work.

Speaker 2

This is where you have to really commit and invest to develop the products, and it's not only a math and a product exercise, it's also a regulatory exercise. We're hard at work at that, and I think as I talked about a bit in my comments, you'll see craps end of the year. We're also working hard at blackjack. I'm more excited when we have three products instead of one and then build from there. I'm more excited the more range of ETGs we can offer our customers. That's when they'll be more of a one plus one equals three, not one plus one equals two.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jordan Bender with Citizens.

Speaker 10

Morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Bill, in the past, you've helped us with milestones and targets for some properties, similar to when you opened the Rose. For Rockingham next year, are there similar milestones, whether win per day or margins, we should be thinking about for that ramp? If I can just sneak in a quick follow-up here. This seemed meaningful, Bill. You did say meaningful EBITDA growth in the near term for the Derby. Is there a way to kind of put parameters or expectations around those comments?

Speaker 2

Sure, Jordan, let me unpack that. Rockingham Park, the Rockingham Grand, that you'll see open mid-next year. We're in the process of building out that facility. It will have around 800 to 850 HRMs and slots. It'll have 32 table games. It's located right at the border of New Hampshire and Massachusetts. It's a conversion of a structure at the mall there, which is a very successful mall. It has its own overpass for ingress and egress. It'll also have a large event center. That market, I would encourage all of you to look at the performance of some of the competitors that have opened in that market over the last couple of years to see their ramp in that New Hampshire-Massachusetts border area on the New Hampshire side. You'll see there's a lot to be really, really encouraged about.

Speaker 2

As we build our expectations, I have to say that they've become heightened because the performance of some of the other product in the market has done better even than we originally expected it would do. We like our site the best. We think we got the site we most wanted when we looked at that market a handful of years ago before it was developed. We like our site the best, and we're very encouraged, and we'll be building our expectations based on the significant performance we're seeing in that region from other sites. With respect to the Derby, as I mentioned in my earnings comments, hey, we're seeing stronger numbers at this point than we saw last year for the 2026 Derby. We're building on that.

Speaker 2

Everything is moving in the right direction, sponsorships, admissions, all the elements of the flywheel, which is how we really think about what we are doing there. The big move the needle in a really significant way will be when we open up Victory Run. In 2027, we will be in the process of constructing it. We feel very positive about what we are doing. It is a better product, even on a temporary basis in that section than we had in 2026. So we will have covered seats there, and upgraded amenities. We feel really good about where that section of the track is, even though it is under construction. We feel very good about the product offering we will have there for 2027.

Speaker 2

But really, the goal is to get that section to 2028, where we will open what we call Victory Run, which is an integrated, very high-end suite of products, including boxes, indoor/outdoor dining, and then large private suites.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Trey Bowers with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 11

Hey, guys. Appreciate the question. Just an attempt to try to squeeze a few more numbers out of you guys. As we think about just the overall CDRT business, especially with all these exciting new additions, and we look out maybe a few years, any thought of, one, in a post-gaming world, the percent of the business that CDRT could represent? And two, just in terms of a margin profile, you do not explicitly break it out, but I think it is pretty clear that the Derby is a very high-margin business. Will these incremental races also represent really high-margin flow-through? And just any sense on either of those would be great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Trey, thanks for the question. First, Churchill Downs Racetrack and the Kentucky Derby is the crown jewel of our company. It's the single most unique, most special asset in our company, and I'd put it up against any other asset in the U.S. or the world in terms of its uniqueness and potential. It's a fabulous asset. It's a culturally significant, traditional extravaganza, and our job is to grow it and make it a great business, which I think our team has done a really good job of doing. Going forward, we need to continue on the themes that we're on. We'll get Victory Run done, but there are other projects. There are other things, small projects, larger projects. There are other things to drive growth. The general interest in the asset or in the event is just growing on its own.

Speaker 2

People just want the word of mouth. People just want to be there. They want to be in the sections that we've built, the newer sections. They want to be at the paddock. Our goal and our expectation is we're going to continue to compound growth with the processes that we're following now. It's going to be more of the same, but bigger and better. The other thing you referenced in your question is, yeah, it's very high margins. Certainly, as we sell regional gaming assets, the percentage of our company that's the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Racetrack grows as a percentage, and certainly that's true. From a margin perspective, we have a good thing going. We know why it works. I think very high margins are a component of the business model, and one we'll continue to emphasize and improve on.

Speaker 2

I think the TCS, Thoroughbred Championship Series, that's a part of that. We've made these investments in this asset called Churchill Downs Racetrack, and we want more opportunities to show that asset off, to show that property off, to utilize that property. Part of the secret sauce, I think, that we're developing for and that we're using, that we've learned from the Derby is how do we use that asset? How do we use our site for other big events, other big things? That's part of the heart behind of what we're doing with the Thoroughbred Championship Series.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Stantial with Stifel.

Speaker 12

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask on a point you made earlier in the prepared remarks, Bill, which is that ticket sales for Derby 153 are pacing, I think you said specifically well ahead of this time last year. Can you just remind us how much of your premium ticket capacity is typically sold by this point in the selling cycle? I am curious if there are any notable call-outs that you are seeing worth mentioning, just in terms of specific sections that might be selling out more quickly or where you have seen better pricing than maybe you expected. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah. That is a really interesting question. I am going to answer it and then dig down into it to explain the answer. So around now, about 25% of our premium ticket inventory is sold. Even more than that, I would say. But the important thing is, the process and the timing for which we move different ticketing is sort of a trade secret. We are not trying to move it all up front. We are trying to yield our seating, and so we follow a plan and a process that we have found over time that does that for us. So, many sections, they are tied up on multi-year PSLs. That is stronger than it is ever been. But when it comes to the unallocated tickets, the hold and open for the public for next year, that we look to sell and do not hold under long-term contracts.

Speaker 2

All parts are way ahead of where they were last year. But that part, we are just throttling back because we want to make sure we keep sufficient inventory for later in the season, because the demand so far has been so strong.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Supino with Wolfe Research.

Speaker 13

Hi, good morning. I wanted to see if you could shed any more light on the margin structure of the racing segment, and how you think about incremental returns on capital in that business. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Peter, you broke up on me for one second. Would you mind repeating that question? I am sorry. It was on my end, not yours. We were shuffling papers, and you broke up for a second. Would you repeat that?

Speaker 13

Yes. I just wondered if you would talk at all about the margin structure, the profitability of the Kentucky Derby business and the incremental returns on capital that you expect to receive to earn on investments in that segment.

Speaker 2

Sure. Generally, because we have seen such ability to drive pricing power over time, when we do a project at Churchill Downs Racetrack, we are willing to accept a little longer payback timeframe than on other assets we develop in the company, say a gaming property. Generally, we have been willing to be a little more patient on the payback period than other investments we make in the company. But the fact is, in most times, and this is a great thing to say as a business executive and having worked across a series of different investments within the company, it is a great place to be. Generally, what we do around Churchill Downs and the Derby outperforms our expectations, and that has been true over virtually every year that I have been around here.

Speaker 2

Generally, we try to be a little more patient because you're introducing, when you do these projects, you're often introducing very unique things and a very unique sale proposition to the customer, and you have to be patient for the customer to understand what that sales proposition is and for word of mouth to develop and to build a book of demand around each new section as you develop. But generally, it's gone better than we could hope, that generally it's outperformed. Expectations, I'd say this, as we've developed new sections on the CapEx front, they're not changing. They're not getting longer. They've been consistent over time. The beauty of our business model, the admissions-based model, people pay for an experience. They pay for all of the events that they experience, not just this thing called a seat that they've purchased.

Speaker 2

They've paid for this general experience, and that's why projects like the Paddock, that's why we can drive such margins, because everything we do sort of drives the overall experience. It's not just the seat they pay for. When we think about what we do at the track, we think about how the consumer's experience is affected not just by a new seat or a new section, but their entire experience within the facility. I think that's an important driver for Victory Run, because that's an area of our facility that has historically been under-invested in, and yet it's an area that people often pass through. Not everybody, but many people at the facility will spend some portion of their day passing through that.

Speaker 2

That acceleration, I think, of that area being turned into something beautiful and consistent with the highest end areas of our track, with the Paddock area, I think that'll fuel all elements of the flywheel.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Guglielmo with Capital One Securities.

Speaker 14

Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. As a follow-up to that last question, can you just dig in a little bit more about how you kind of measure success there on the racing lean in, so with the series and the partnership. You mentioned wagering, admissions, partnerships, but is there anything more qualitative as the strategy takes form? You kind of hinted at it, but is there a specific time horizon that you are focused on for these kind of both investments, but also kind of strategy shifts that you're looking at?

Speaker 2

Yeah. That's a fun question for me to talk about. It's not one we often get to in these calls. But that qualitative element actually takes a lot of discipline because you don't always monetize social media impressions. You don't always directly monetize within a television contract increasing ratings. But you still have to work very hard to drive those things, because those are some of the most impressive statistics about what we have with the Kentucky Derby. If you look at our television numbers, which have been just growing sequentially every year, 24 million people at the peak watched the Kentucky Derby last year. I think we averaged, which is another metric, something like 19 or 20.

Speaker 2

Those are extraordinary numbers, and you put those up against the World Series, you put those up against the NBA, you put those up against the Masters, football, college, pro, those are really, really incredible numbers. That takes work to build a television experience with our NBC partners that is good every year to build and deliver those kind of ratings. So we spend a lot of time thinking about the storytelling around our event. We spend a lot of time on social media, and those are also numbers that we'd put up against anybody. Our increasing social media impressions, all of those metrics we track very closely, and they all are driving forward at a really great rate. Those eventually feed into the other metrics of wagering or sponsorship or higher television deals, et cetera.

Speaker 2

But you have to do the work on those every single year because you have to show a pattern. You have to show constant progress on that. So, like I said, it's almost fun for me to talk about it because that's work that we do, and we spend a lot of time measuring that we think you have to do to make a great event. But it doesn't necessarily show up that year in some new financial metric. But it's part of the long-term secret sauce and story that you have to put together to drive all of these elements of the flywheel of how we monetize the Kentucky Derby, the wagering, the admissions, the television contracts, the sponsorships, the licensing.

Speaker 2

And again, what I am most excited about, I am always excited about continuing that for the Derby, but what I am most excited about is we want to take all that and put it into the Thoroughbred Championship Series. We want these more events. We want a longer period of time, 5 months of content instead of one week of content. We want that longer period of time to use these skills to build that TCS series into something that can be comparable to the Derby over time.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Joe Stauff with Susquehanna.

Speaker 15

Good morning, Bill, Marcia. Bill, on the Thoroughbred Championship Series, I was wondering if you can discuss the buy-in for the owners and the trainers. We all saw a very prominent owner in the context of buying your stock. Obviously, that is a favorable reference point. But where is that process? And then two, of the six races, we are all familiar with the Derby and Belmont and Travers, but the smaller ones, and one of them is obviously new, but the smaller ones, Matt Winn and Jim Dandy, can you just reference how much betting handle those do at current, at least historically?

Speaker 2

Absolutely, Joe. I have to unpack that question. There were a couple of things going on there, so let me make sure I capture all the elements of that. So first, what has been the support and the buy-in from owners and trainers into the Thoroughbred Championship Series? I think it has been exceptional. I think it is very high. I think the industry wants leadership. I think they want a league. I think they want something to shoot for and to build towards. So I think they are very excited to have more opportunity and for there be a heightened significance on these races. So that has been really encouraging, and I would not shy away from the fact that we are also doing some economic incenting. You mentioned the Jim Dandy and the Matt Winn. We are taking the purses of those races up, so they will be at least $1 million.

Speaker 2

Every one of these races on the Colts division side will be at least $1 million. On top of that, we have the $5 million bonus structure based on how you perform across that series. That is a big number in our industry. $5 million to shoot for is extra prize money on top of the or as part of the $22 million overall that resides in the purse structure of both series. That is a big deal. There is a big economic incentive. Of course, what you can find in horse racing sometimes is the big horses duck each other. There is enough opportunity out there that these horses sometimes do not want to keep racing.

Speaker 2

Here, the prestige and the money, the purse money, the attention, the telecast, it is all going to be focused on these races, and all of that is going to drive these horse owners to take their horses and enter them into these races to compete for this. They all show up for the Derby. Why do they do that? It is the prestige of the Derby. That is what matters. That is what people outside of the industry talk about. This is designed to pull that prestige, to amplify that prestige so that these owners feel that about these other races and take the risk and go after the reward of continuing to compete against each other to see who is truly the best over a five-month series. Another component of your question was, some of these races are big deals, and some of them are not as familiar to the public.

Speaker 2

They are all big races. Within the industry, these are all very well-regarded, important, high-purse races. Certainly, within that, you have the Derby, that is the biggest of them all, both from a purse structure and from a prestige structure. Then you have the Belmont Stakes, which is a legendary and historically important race that continues to be an incredibly prestigious and important race. The Travers also is very prestigious. They often call it the Midsummer Derby. That is not as known outside of the core industry, and that continues for the Matt Winn and the Jim Dandy. They are big wagering races. Those are big wagering days. Part of the flywheel is already there, but we need to bring some of that prestige that comes from the other races and comes from the whole concept of the Thoroughbred Championship Series.

Speaker 2

We need to bring that and infuse those races with that prestige and those purse dollars to elevate them. By connecting them into one common thing, one common purpose, an ultimate higher purpose, we will grow all of them and will make all of them even more significant.

Operator

Thank you. I am showing no further questions. With that, I will hand the call back over to CEO Bill Carstanjen for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Andrew. First, everyone, thank you for joining. Thank you for showing interest in our company. I guess I would highlight, as I think about the last hour we spent together, let me hit on a couple of important things to leave you with. We are on track to execute on our asset sales. We are pleased with the process. We are pleased with the valuation. We are on course there. We are really excited about the future growth of the Kentucky Derby and what we are doing around the Thoroughbred Championship Series and around Derby Week. That is something I am looking forward to talking more to you about next time we meet, but we are excited and pleased with how that is going. We are going to focus on continuing to grow our HRM venues in Kentucky and Virginia, and we look forward to our expansion in New Hampshire.

Speaker 2

One other last thing I would say is, we were fielding questions fast and furious, and I was making sure I gave all the accurate information. I may have garbled one number. We are up about 25% so far in ticket sales compared to last year with respect to the Derby, and we have sold about 40% of the ticket inventory that we have allocated for sale or that we have for the event as a whole. We have sold about 40% of that at this point in the process. Just clarifying those numbers because I might have reversed them as I was rifling through the series of questions. Again, thanks very much, everybody. We look forward to talking to you next time, and we hope to have more news when we do so. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This does conclude today's program, and you may now disconnect.

Powered by Quartr