Brightstar Lottery Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 10, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Operational growth accelerated: Q3 operational revenue growth reached 4%, up from approximately 1% in the first half, driven mainly by product sales—which more than doubled—and growth in other services.
  • Negative Sentiment: Full-year guidance was lowered: Brightstar now expects revenue of $2.435–$2.455 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.14–$1.16 billion, citing weaker-than-expected U.S. jackpot comparisons, Italy disruptions and unfavorable foreign exchange.
  • Positive Sentiment: Margins and profitability remained resilient: Year-to-date Adjusted EBITDA rose 5% to $861 million, while margin excluding service revenue amortization improved 50 basis points to about 41.5%, supported by product mix, service growth and cost efficiencies.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management is investing in new growth channels: Italy’s digital gaming, self-service terminals and proximity services, along with continued iLottery expansion, are expected to support growth; executives cautioned that these businesses require upfront investment before profitability scales.
  • Positive Sentiment: Shareholder returns and financial flexibility remain priorities: Brightstar returned more than $200 million through dividends and buybacks through November 9, while reporting 3.3x net leverage and about $1.9 billion in liquidity.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Brightstar Lottery Q3 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Brightstar third quarter 2026 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Jim Hurley, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Jim, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, and thank you all for joining us on Brightstar Lottery's third quarter 2026 conference call, which is being hosted by Vince Sadusky, our Chief Executive Officer, and Max Chiara, our Chief Financial Officer. We are presenting from multiple locations today, and we'd appreciate your patience if we experience any technical difficulties. During today's call, we'll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. The principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our latest earnings release and in our SEC filings. Now I'll turn the call over to Vince.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Jim, and thank you all for joining us. Well, third quarter revenue and profit were in line with our expectations, as operational revenue growth accelerated to 4%, up from approximately 1% in the first half of the year. This acceleration reflects the diverse scope of Brightstar products and services, in addition to the growing contribution from several of the strategic initiatives in which we've been investing. Our year-to-date revenue, EBITDA, and earnings per share performance also demonstrate the durability of the business, even as we continue to invest to strengthen our contract portfolio and expand our technology and service offerings. Returning capital to shareholders remains an important pillar of our balanced capital allocation strategy. Through November 9, we returned over $200 million through a combination of quarterly cash dividends and share repurchases, representing approximately 11% of our current market capitalization.

Speaker 2

We believe repurchasing shares at current valuation levels represents an attractive use of capital. At the same time, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and preserving the financial flexibility to invest in growth. Our third quarter sales performance reflects the broad scope of the products and services we provide around the world. Product sales and other service revenue were the primary drivers of operational growth. Product sales more than doubled from the prior year period, largely reflecting significant retail terminal sales in Portugal and the delivery of several hundred lottery vending machines in North Carolina. Higher instant ticket printing volumes also contributed to product sales growth. Other service revenue increased primarily due to software services, including the contribution from the Lotterywest contract we won in Western Australia. Non-wager-based services are an increasingly important source of resilient, predominantly recurring revenue.

Speaker 2

We see meaningful opportunity to expand it, particularly through our Italy B2C initiatives and new opportunities outside the U.S. and Italy. Underlying lottery demand remains solid, especially for instant and draw games. Q3 same-store sales reflect the comparison with a very high level achieved in the prior year period, not only for U.S. multi-state jackpot games, but also for global instant and draw games. Global iLottery sales maintained double-digit growth, continuing their multi-year momentum. Italy same-store sales were primarily affected by the calendarization impact we called out last quarter. September was a record month for e-instant wagers, fueled by the launch of Dual Play, a new hybrid instant game providing an omnichannel retail and digital player experience. In the U.S., multi-state jackpot comparisons have been the primary driver of same-store sales performance in both the third quarter and year-to-date period. This overshadowed good underlying performance for instant games.

Speaker 2

U.S. instant sales in Q3 were the second highest for a third quarter period in the last five years, behind only the exceptionally strong third quarter of last year. We are partnering with our customers to help broaden the sources of lottery growth through retailer network expansion, deploying a larger upgraded fleet of lottery vending machines, improving in-store player engagement, and more strategic game and portfolio management. We are seeing encouraging early results in New Jersey and Indiana, where we have more direct involvement in day-to-day lottery operations through lottery management agreements. Instant ticket sales increased 4% in both jurisdictions during the third quarter and were up low to mid-single digits year to date. These results reinforce our confidence in the operating playbook we plan to deploy more broadly across the portfolio.

Speaker 2

Our Italy B2C expansion plans are among our top growth priorities, and we are making good progress rolling them out. Our strategy consists of three initiatives: digital gaming, new retail lottery experiences, and additional consumer services. Beginning with digital gaming, the MyLotteries Play app provides a broad range of gaming options across e-instant, e-draw games, iCasino, and sports betting. In the last several months, we focused on driving gaming account activation. We recruited thousands of retailers to support these efforts and have deployed in-store televisions, LED displays, and other branded materials to build awareness and engage players. We are also leveraging the broader MyLotteries ecosystem, including our informational lottery websites and dedicated Lotto and Scratch & Win apps to provide consumers with a simple path to MyLotteries Play. Dual Play has been particularly successful in connecting retail and digital player experiences.

Speaker 2

Approximately half of participating players are making their way to the MyLotteries app to enjoy the digital experience, creating an effective acquisition funnel from our retail network. The second part of our B2C expansion strategy is Otto, our new self-service Lotto terminal that creates a new recurring fee-based revenue stream for us. We will begin deploying the terminals early next year. The third area is proximity services. Our new service, branded Sani, provides consumers with a convenient way to pay bills, purchase phone recharges, and buy gift cards. Proximity services represent a growing part of the broader Italian payments market, and we believe we have a compelling offer. Sani is expected to be another meaningful source of incremental recurring revenue. Altogether, our third quarter performance demonstrates good progress against our goals.

Speaker 2

Our core lottery business remains solid, operational growth is accelerating as our strategic initiatives begin contributing more meaningfully, and we continue to strengthen the long-term durability and growth profile of the business. At the same time, our strong financial position allows us to invest beyond these opportunities while returning significant capital to shareholders. With that, I will turn the call over to Max.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Vince, and hello everyone joining us on the call today. Our third quarter results were in line with our expectation and importantly demonstrate the acceleration in operational growth that we have been expecting as we move through the year. Year-to-date revenue and profit performance demonstrates the durability of our business, even as we invest in important long-term growth initiatives. Disciplined capital allocation keeps leverage in our targeted range as we continue to return capital to shareholders. The largest factor impacting our third quarter reported revenue of $607 million was service revenue amortization from the new Italy Lotto license, which increased $46 million year-over-year. Excluding that non-cash impact, constant currency revenue was up 4%. Other service revenue increased 11%, reflecting software services related to new contracts and extensions, and the growing contribution from our Italy B2C initiatives. We don't often highlight our non-wager-based service revenue.

Speaker 3

It is worth noting it is mostly comprised of resilient recurring revenue for things like software, maintenance, and other services we provide to customers and retailers. As Vince mentioned, it is a part of the business we expect to grow meaningfully in the future, especially as we execute our Italy B2C expansion plans and pursue new opportunities outside the U.S. and Italy. Product sales more than doubled to $60 million, driven by sales of retail hardware, software, and the printing of instant tickets. Wager-based revenue was mostly impacted by the comparison to very strong U.S. multi-state jackpot sales in the prior year period and the final residual impact of the U.K. transition.

Speaker 3

In short, while the headline reported revenue comparison remains affected by non-cash service revenue amortization related to the Lotto upfront fee, operational performance improved meaningfully during the third quarter, supported by the diverse scope of our products and services. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $289 million. There were several important operating drivers behind the quarter. We benefited from higher global product sales and improved product mix, profit flow-through from other service revenue growth, and cost efficiencies related to OPtiMa and the streamlining of internal processes. These benefits were offset primarily by lower same-store sales, particularly U.S. multi-state jackpot activity, the remaining impact of the U.K. service contract transition, and continued investments in our growth initiatives. Year-to-date Adjusted EBITDA increased 5% to $861 million, driven by higher product sales and improved margin mix, increased other service revenue and associated profits flow-through, as well as OPtiMa-driven cost efficiency.

Speaker 3

Partial offsets include the U.K. contract transition and investment in growth initiatives. We were able to improve our year-to-date Adjusted EBITDA margin, excluding service revenue amortization, by 50 basis points to about 41.5%, showing a resilient performance despite investment and inflationary impact. Income from continuing operations was $45 million compared with $95 million in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year comparison reflects, among other factors, the higher service revenue amortization associated with the Italy Lotto license, higher net interest expense due to lower interest income after making the final Lotto license payment earlier this year, and the impact of the U.K. transition partially offset by a lower tax provision. Turning now to cash flow and shareholder returns. Cash generated from operations in the third quarter was $73 million, affected by the timing of working capital.

Speaker 3

Year-to-date reported cash used in operating activities was approximately $1.1 billion, reflecting the final Italy Lotto license payment made earlier this year. Excluding that license payment, year-to-date cash from operations was a robust $574 million cash inflow. Year-to-date CapEx were $313 million. We continue to deploy capital with a balanced approach, investing in the business while also providing meaningful returns to shareholders. Year-to-date, through November 9, over $200 million has been allocated to remunerate shareholders, including $127 million in cash dividends and $77 million in share repurchases, representing approximately 11% of our market cap. Our dividend yield remains at levels well above our historical average at about 9% as a result of the depressed share price. Year-to-date adjusted EPS is $0.34.

Speaker 3

Excluding non-cash service revenue amortization of $0.70 per share, adjusted EPS improves to $1.05 per share, with a 65% pro forma payout ratio when compared to dividends per share of $0.69. For the full year, we currently estimate that service revenue amortization will have a $0.93 impact on full year adjusted EPS. This is important to keep in mind as the cash impact of the upfront Italy Lotto license payment has been fully realized in our net debt figure, and the service revenue amortization has a non-cash impact on earnings. Our balance sheet and credit profile remain strong. At the end of the third quarter, net debt was approximately $3.8 billion, with net debt leverage of 3.3 times. We also had approximately $1.9 billion of total liquidity, including roughly $500 million of unrestricted cash and $1.3 billion of available borrowing capacity.

Speaker 3

During September, we also took another step to strengthen our debt maturity profile by issuing EUR 500 million of senior secured notes due 2032. We used the proceeds principally to repurchase $342 million of our notes due in 2028 and repay EUR 155 million of borrowings under our revolving credit facilities, in addition to paying transaction-related costs. This extends our maturity profile while maintaining substantial liquidity and financial flexibility. As we look to the fourth quarter, the key takeaway is that the acceleration in operational growth that we saw in Q3 is expected to continue. Operational growth improved from approximately 1% in the first half to 4% in the third quarter. We expect to maintain Q3 operational growth rate in Q4, which reinforces our medium-term growth expectations. Notably, product sales and our Italy B2C expansion initiatives are a meaningful part of that fourth quarter growth outlook.

Speaker 3

In the first nine months of the year, we have displayed the strength of the diversity of our revenue streams and durability of our operating model. The company has delivered a resilient Adjusted EBITDA performance with a margin, excluding the impact of service revenue amortization, better than last year and ahead of our expectations. This performance underscores increased contribution from product sales and other service revenue, in addition to structural cost savings and other operating efficiencies that are bolstering the strong and attractive profit margin profile of our business. Our revised revenue outlook for the year assumes mid-single-digit growth from operational drivers in Q4, led by product sales and other service revenue, which is consistent with the accelerated growth we achieved in Q3. The update to a range of $2.435 billion-$2.455 billion accounts for three main items.

Speaker 3

First, it thinks of sales in the second half of the year. This includes the impact of temporary exogenous factors such as the summer heat wave in Italy and, more recently, transportation strikes there. It also includes incrementally lower expectations of U.S. multi-state jackpots, particularly against the very high levels we had in the second half of last year. Second is the phasing of certain Italy B2C expansion efforts. Finally, we have adjusted FX to current rates, account for the strengthening of the dollar against the euro in the second half of the year. The flow-through to Adjusted EBITDA, which is primarily impacted by the FX impact, moves the Adjusted EBITDA outlook for the full year to a range of $1.14 billion-$1.16 billion. Our cash from operations outlook is unchanged.

Speaker 3

We expect to finish the year with approximately $900 million of net cash used in operating activities, including the EUR 1.67 billion final Lotto license payment, or an approximately $750 million cash inflow of cash from operations, excluding that payment. We now expect CapEx of $450 million for the year due to a shift in timing between 2026 and 2027. There are three main takeaways I would like to highlight before we open the call for Q&A. First, operational growth is accelerating. Second, we are able to maintain attractive margins as operational growth increases, and we continue to deliver on cost efficiencies. Third, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet and investing in opportunities that we believe can support sustainable growth beyond 2026. We believe the operating momentum we are seeing as we exit 2026 reinforces our medium-term growth expectations.

Speaker 3

With that, Vince and I will be happy to take your questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Stantial with Stifel. Jeff, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hey. Good morning, Vince, Max, Jim. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe starting off on guidance. Max, you mentioned something there in terms of the revisions on the same-store sales assumptions in terms of exogenous factors. I did not quite catch that. Do you mind just sort of expanding on what you mentioned? On this subject, I think core, meaning excluding jackpots, same-store sales in the U.S. was down 1.4%. It was tracking sort of more flattish in the front half. You mentioned Indiana, New Jersey as sort of successful examples of where initiatives have been able to drive growth. In the remaining states, I am curious, what do you think is going on there? What is driving the decline? Is there anything more structural in terms of macro or potentially cannibalization from other gambling verticals, whether regulated or unregulated?

Speaker 4

Just any sort of high-level thoughts there would be helpful as well. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I can start it off and talk a little bit about sales performance and the consumer, then I will let Max touch base on bridging the look forward. I would say, when you step back and take a look at our business geographically, the Q3 and year-to-date, I think, was roughly in line with expectations. Our operational revenue growth, as we mentioned on the last call, we believed it would accelerate in the back half of the year, and it indeed did. We were up 4% in the third quarter from roughly 1% in the first half of the year when you take out FX and the amortization of the SRA. EBITDA expanded as well. I think that performance, when you break it down between our primary markets, Italy and U.S., in Italy, for the year-to-date period, we are up just over 1%.

Speaker 2

That is on top of an incredible quarter last year, a very strong year-to-date. I think we are up about 3% on a year-to-date basis. I would say most recently in Italy, then I will switch on over to the U.S., it was an interesting summer. It was the hottest summer on record, and many of the retailer formats that we have seen were down for the quarter. We also were up against a really difficult comparison. I think we were up around 6% in the third quarter of the prior year. So, I would say the comparison to last year was tough, and the heat wave in Europe, in particular in Italy, made it difficult. But as we look towards the fourth quarter, so far, we see the fourth quarter, Italy is roughly flat or so, and the growth accelerated over the last week.

Speaker 2

So, we feel pretty confident in the initiatives we have and things returning to normal, notwithstanding some of the social disruption that is taking place over there that we are hoping is short-lived. On the U.S., on a year-to-date basis, same-store sales were down slightly. Again, a couple of tough things, tough comparison to the prior year. The year started off slow with multi-state jackpots, and then we had a really strong run in the back half of the year, third quarter in particular. In fact, in the third quarter last year, the same-store sales on the multi-state jackpots were up about 70% from the previous year, and instants had the best third quarter that we can recall in recent history. So, that was a tough comparison.

Speaker 2

In fact, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, our third quarter instant ticket sales this year were actually our second-highest instant ticket sales for a third quarter in the last four or five years or so, behind only a super strong third quarter of last year. So, what are we doing to try to impact that? We have talked on the last couple of quarters that we have been working really hard with our customers to expand retail outlets. Again, it is largely an impulse purchase, the purchase of lottery tickets. We focus primarily with a few retailers in New Jersey and Indiana, given we have got a bit more flexibility in those LMA markets. And in fact, we have seen those markets do pretty well. In the third quarter, same-store sales were up 4% in New Jersey, and they were up in Indiana as well.

Speaker 2

And we have added a couple of hundred more vending machines and point of sales in New Jersey and Indiana, and we have worked on launching good, higher price point games where we have seen over the last couple of years that there has been increased demand for that type of product. So, I would say it is difficult to infer what is taking place over the longer term based upon one quarter. Again, I think as you parse it, I would say the instants in particular is a good barometer, and again, even though down a bit from a year ago, pretty strong overall results. When we look at the consumer, and we have done a fair amount of work like other consumer-facing companies, it is clear all consumers are facing inflationary pressure and a decrease in disposable income, especially with the price of fuel, hopefully, for our business and many others, that abates over time.

Speaker 2

What we've seen is not really broad weakness, but clearly consumers are being more selective and more intentional with their spend. The research we've done supports what I'm sure you've seen for other businesses and other industries, that the lower-income consumer is most significantly impacted. The higher-end consumer, even in the lottery business, is relatively stronger as we see continued really strong demand when the various customers launch instant ticket games in the $20, $30, and $50 price points. For us, the goal is to keep working with our customers, keep refining our value proposition, and the in-store marketing, and keep up our overall engagement. iLottery sales in the U.S. continue to be strong, so clearly that digital channel is a very strong one. We have several more iLottery platforms that we're launching over the next year for our customers.

Speaker 2

Our iLottery games continue to do well, and we continue to be hopeful that more states will expand their offering to provide for an iLottery offering. When you step back and you look on a year-to-date basis, lottery sales have held up really well overall. I think we've seen, again, this historical trend where lottery offers a high entertainment value for the cost. It's a pretty diverse customer base. When you start seeing things like good jackpot runs, in U.S. in particular, that has a disproportionate impact to the positive and to the negative. We had a bit of a run here with Powerball getting up close to a billion. Fortunately, great for the player, not great for us. Got hit by a person in New Jersey. We've talked before also about the fact that the Mega Millions changed the second multi-state jackpot.

Speaker 2

The increase from $2 to $5 and the change in the algorithm has not been all that successful. We're seeing lower play levels at various advertised jackpots than previous. Things improve when Mega runs up to close to the billion dollars. You start to get to a similar level of play, but at the lower levels, it has not done all that well. We're hopeful the industry continues to take a look at that algorithm and thinks about ways to make an adjustment to make it perceived more valuable to players. As I say, overall, there's a lot of different moving parts, a lot of components. I'd say lottery sales have held up pretty well, especially given other consumer-facing businesses.

Speaker 2

Again, it's good to be Brightstar and have a product offering in all these different verticals and geographies, and be able to do things like drive product sales and system sales in a quarter like the third quarter, and improve the top line and contribute towards profitability. With that, I'll turn it over to Max to handle the first part of the question.

Speaker 3

Yeah, let me add a little bit of color and bridge to the updated outlook. As Vince was mentioning, the single largest negative impact in the third quarter was the lower multi-state jackpot. 2025 third quarter saw a historical Powerball at almost $1.8 billion, which we couldn't repeat. We basically stopped at just barely above $1 billion this year. That obviously reduced our ability to close the gap to last year. Looking into the fourth quarter impact on the U.S. side, the recent jackpot hit that Vince just mentioned, which happened last week, obviously has impaired our ability to basically get closer to another $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot that hit at the end of last year in December, just barely before the Christmas break.

Speaker 3

Again, reflecting that into our expectations for the last 60 days of the year makes us obviously a bit weaker than what we originally anticipated for the year. Again, overall, the U.S. remains in good health from a core business perspective, but has this significant second half, Q3 and Q4 impact on multi-state jackpot that is difficult to face. On the Italian situation, aside from the disruption due to the heat wave in the summer that caused a 2% retail food traffic reduction overall, not only for lottery, but overall, which again, we have gone past that now. In October, what happened in October, especially in the second part of October, there was a trucker strike in Italy, particularly on the center and southern part of the country, that has affected some logistic delivery of instant tickets to our outlets.

Speaker 3

We're talking about a few dozens of million dollars of delayed deliveries. Luckily, we run this business with inventory on the ground, and so the retailers were able to offset the majority of that impact by activating the inventory in the outlets. Again, hopefully that is now over because it looks like the government came to a positive conclusion of the situation with the truckers association and extended some tax credits to the association, to the individual operators, so that hopefully that thing is beyond us. But we need to stay vigilant for the last 60 days of the year because the situation remains obviously important to verify. Again, last but not least, we wanted also to update and reflect the latest FX dynamics. The year went exactly the opposite way of 2025. We started with a strong euro.

Speaker 3

We actually had some tailwind into the first and second quarter, particularly in the first quarter, that reversed out and became a headwind in Q3, and now expected also to be a headwind in Q4. Again, overall, we obviously had to throw that down because of FX. On the Adjusted EBITDA side, I think we are able to couple up all this impact from U.S. and Italy with the continuation of our strong efforts in cost cutting, to hold the line, if you want. But I had to throw down the number for FX. Again, overall, we still expect the margin to hold year-over-year, which would be a great outcome for us, definitely slightly ahead of our initial expectations. But again, we are facing a market situation that we have to remain vigilant against. Thank you.

Speaker 4

That's great. Thank you. Thank you both for all that color. Maybe switching gears for our follow-up just over to the Italian business. I think there were some media reports out, I think it was last week, that suggested that the government might look to extend your Scratch & Win contract in exchange for a sort of catch-up fee. Vince or Max, can you just clarify for us sort of what you're hearing on this subject? And obviously, these are just media reports, but assuming that it does play out the way that these reports suggest, can you help us think about potential implications to your capital allocation framework as you think about the next couple years? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yeah, sure.

Speaker 2

Go ahead, Max.

Speaker 2

Oh, go ahead, Max. I'll kick it off and then let you talk about the capital allocation implications. The anticipation was the budget law would come out, and that would include the opening bid for the next license that comes up at the end of next year. Turns out that the budget law contemplates right now an actual extension to the existing award going out 15 months, which would take the current contract that we and our partners hold through December 31, 2029. There would be an upfront cost to that of EUR 188 million as currently drafted, and you pay that in a couple of installments. For us, we believe all of our existing partners would contribute their pro rata share, and we would extend. It has to go through the formal process with parliament to be finalized, but that's essentially the model.

Speaker 2

Also, in the budget law, it also contemplates a new weekly Lotto draw every Wednesday. As we have seen in various markets around the world, increased draws typically are a catalyst for sales.

Speaker 3

Yeah, from a funding/capital allocation perspective, Jeff, the payment will be done in two tranches, in two installments at the end of March and at the end of September of next year. Luckily enough, we just refinanced a bond for EUR 500 million. We used two-thirds of that to retire a bond that was coming to a close expiration, and for the balance, we basically freed up capacity in our revolver. So, that now comes very handy to support that action. In terms of more broadly capital allocation impact, we do not think that this payment will have a significant impact to our leverage trajectory, and we do not see a change in our posture towards our balanced capital allocation approach and the continuation of our plan to return cash to shareholders going forward.

Speaker 4

That is great. Thank you both.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Pizzella with Deutsche Bank. Steve, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning, everyone, and thank you for taking our questions. Just going back to the guidance, can you walk us through the puts and takes on the implied Q4 margin? And then looking into 2027, how much of the cost savings are still ahead of you, and how much additional margin upside could that support?

Speaker 3

I'll take this up, Vince. In terms of margin trajectory, during the year, we have been able to stay ahead of last year and be better than our original expectations as a result of a very strong performance aided by our OPtiMa program, which, as you know, we have recently upgraded to $100 million, adding another 20 at the back end. Again, we think this OPtiMa program is going to wrap up by early-mid 2028 in terms of actions, so that there will be full deployment of the $100 million by 2028. We think that right now we see a $10 million year-over-year improvement next year built into our outlook, and then potentially the final closure of the plan with the final $20 million in 2028. So that's how it currently stands.

Speaker 3

It doesn't mean that we couldn't do better and further accelerate actions that are out there. In the meantime, we continue to look for other opportunities, and again, as a result also of the significant investments that we are taking in early stages, on AI transformation, there are some actions that would require some business process re-engineering. We are starting to put our arms around that effort, and we believe that we will be able to put together an interesting program for the next few years, but we need a little bit more time to make sure that we focalize our efforts to what is relevant, to make sure that we keep in mind the rate of return for those individual re-engineering and cost savings initiatives, and don't waste resources spread across different functions and two different functions to different processes.

Speaker 3

Very focused, very targeted, and again, we are in the early innings for that, so more to come in the future. Overall, we believe the-

Speaker 5

Okay, thank you.

Speaker 3

Overall, we believe the margins is going to be down in Q4 to the recent quarters, but this is just a typical calendar situation as we continue to build our pipeline of product sales in the fourth quarter. As you know, margins associated with product sales run definitely lower than the service revenue, which is built with a much, much higher margin intrinsically. Having said that, we are very happy with the margins we realize in product sales in the fourth quarter. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Okay, thank you. Then maybe more of a longer-term question as my follow-up. Historically, you framed long-term lottery growth at around 4%. Given the increase in contribution from digital and the evolution of the business, how has your view of the long-term growth algorithm changed, and what do you think is an appropriate terminal growth rate today for the business?

Speaker 3

So, as you know, our North Star is the revenue algo that we put out when we did the three-year plan of 5% CAGR. We believe that we are in full capacity to get to the 5% CAGR going forward as a result primarily of the new engine growth initiatives that we are deploying, particularly iLottery, with, again, a full-speed execution at 20% growth rate on a recurring basis and continuing, as well as the Italy B2C. Vince just highlighted today kind of the incremental services that we are planning on launching down the road, and we are in the process of executing that. That rounds out a very compelling program that would allow us overall to hold the line on the five, despite the fact that same-store sales looks weaker in the short term.

Speaker 3

And we believe that we have an option that we can play here to be able to absorb that short-term weakness with a much stronger contribution from the Italian growth plan. Please, Vince, if you want to add some more color.

Speaker 2

Yeah. No, I think Max is right on. We're a bit hesitant because our plan is the first quarter of next year to give a refreshed outlook on the business. But yeah, as we're seeing 2026 progress, our thinking is that more of the growth will come from the Italy B2C and the iLottery business, and perhaps a bit less from retail growth than we anticipated when we came up with our targets for the future last year. A lot of that has to do with the solid start and our increased conviction around our ability to expand the revenue streams in Italy, as well as continued strong iLottery growth and the opportunity to roll out some new platforms on iLottery as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Barry Jonas with Truist. Barry, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, guys. Can you give a little more color about iLottery from a legalization outlook? Are there specific states to keep an eye on? Any implications from the midterms there? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think it's a little early to tell from a high-level perspective. The fact that states are now increasingly challenged around their budgets and looking for new revenue sources, we think iLottery has a good chance of increasing its legalization. The reality is, there was such a massive effort on sports betting over the last decade or so, and what we've heard is most states have underperformed on the projections they had around return to state for sports betting. But lottery has been a longstanding solid contributor for decades to states. In fact, as you know, one of the largest contributors of revenue. I do think that the momentum is growing for further provision for iLottery. For us, we've been busy. We have three planned platforms in U.S. over the or actually two in U.S., one international over the next year.

Speaker 2

Also in the markets where we don't provide the platform, our eInstant content has done really well with primarily with our Lucky Coins franchise. So, in markets like Massachusetts where we didn't win the iLottery platform, we have product up and running, and the performance has been very good, and we believe that leads to more product. So difficult to say exactly which states beyond the ones that we're currently working with to implement a platform will legalize. But again, I think the environment is increasingly positive.

Speaker 6

Great. Just for a follow-up, wanted to talk about Brazil and maybe get an update on the business there. I'm curious if the gaming ban has any direct or indirect implication for you guys. Does it alter the competitive opportunity or maybe even your appetite for further investment? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yeah. So a couple of things in Brazil. As we pointed out last time, we've got a joint venture partnership with Scientific Games in the market. We've got our team in place, and we've been building out from scratch the retail network in the province of São Paulo, and we've gotten our digital product up and running. We continue to monitor the situation with Lula reelected and being against gaming. Obviously, it's in front of the Supreme Court. We believe it has certainly large implications for iCasino and sports betting company as the restrictions primarily focused on those two areas at the federal level. But again, I mean, the Supreme Court ruled a while back that the states have the right to administer their own lotteries, which is we've been operating in Minas Gerais for years, and we continue to move forward with our plans in São Paulo.

Speaker 2

We don't think lotteries will be impacted by the current negative situation federally regarding sports betting and iCasino.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Domenico Ghilotti with Equita. Domenico, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Three questions. The first is if you can provide an update, if any, on Texas and New York lottery contracts. Second, if you can elaborate a little bit more on the proximity services you are going to launch on your Italian B2C operations. Third is a question on the comments you gave on iLottery and B2C probably contributing a bit more compared to same-store sales going forward. I wonder if the profitability of these two businesses is comparable with the lottery, because I presume that same-store sales are bringing a lot of profitability.

Speaker 2

Sure thing. With regard to Texas and New York, Texas has been submitted. We are not really in a position to be able to comment on the status. But as we have said in the past, we remain confident in our proposal. We have provided outstanding service to Texas for years. Just a reminder, it is a 10-year contract. The RFP is a 10-year contract through 2030, 2038, and the scoring is very high towards technical, 90% technical requirements to 10% on pricing. We look forward to hearing the outcome of that RFP, and we hope and expect to win that award. On New York, we recently executed a two-year extension in order to give the lottery enough time to issue the RFP and work on the upgrades that are required and transition for the new contract.

Speaker 2

The RFP actually was canceled, and a new one was issued, and we will submit by early December on the new submission. It appears the things that changed in the RFP were some clarifications and more specifics around products and services that were a bit more general in the original RFP. Nothing that we reviewed that was all that significant, and nothing would change our view on our opportunity in New York. Again, we have provided great service to that longstanding customer as well. On the B2C side in Italy, yeah, I mean, as we have discussed, we have really got a couple of different opportunities, we believe, and we think we have made really good progress in 2026, including a full upgrade of hardware with our retailers, as well as partnering up with our retailers around our proximity services and the signing up of game accounts.

Speaker 2

Tabaccai are our partner in our Lotto consortium, and we have had a great longstanding relationship with them. With regard to our proximity service business in particular that I think you asked, it includes things like payments, phone recharges, gift cards. It has been a growth market in Italy, and it is one that we know really well. We owned a similar business for many years that reached, I think, really strong market share and good potential. We think the opportunity to do this is something that we are familiar with, we have knowledge, and of course, the opportunity is to leverage all of these point of sales where we distribute lottery tickets throughout Italy.

Speaker 2

With regard to margins, yeah, whether it is the iLottery business or the winning of a new contract like in Brazil or Australia, or certainly the digital business in Italy, there is a heavy investment period up front. It is just the nature of the business. I think as you look out, our expectation is for very strong contribution to our revenue growth algorithm. But it will certainly take some time for the profitability to improve as the business achieves scale.

Speaker 7

Okay, thanks.

Speaker 2

Max, I do not know if you had anything you wanted to add to that.

Speaker 3

No. Very good. Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. Your next question comes from the line of Charlie Muir-Sands with BNP Paribas. Charlie, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my questions. I've only got one left, actually. With respect to your CapEx, you've indicated that due to rephasing, this year's CapEx will be at the lower end of your prior range. I just wondered at this early stage what your anticipation would be for CapEx for next year, and also with the residual benefits you're hoping to achieve from the OPtiMa saving program, whether there would be any material restructuring charges excluded from Adjusted EBITDA, which we should be considering as well. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Starting with the CapEx, our original commitment was effectively to run the CapEx cycle with around about $1.6 billion over four years of total CapEx, 2025 to 2028. We think we can hold the line on that commitment over those four years. The timing has shifted a little bit from the early years to the back-out years. So, when you do the math on the four years, you should be able to see the 1.6. This recent retiming obviously increases the bar in absolute terms for 2027 slightly. But again, what is important is really to couple up that CapEx with the incremental revenue that we expect to achieve from our initiatives, as well as kind of the robust portfolio of contracts that we expect to maintain and grow down the road going forward.

Speaker 3

As far as OPtiMa is concerned, we are in the final innings of the program. There may be some minor restructuring that will still come into fruition, but it's not going to be a significantly material amount left on severance costs. Obviously, there will be some that we anticipate, but again, the majority of the program is beyond us at this point. Thank you.

Speaker 8

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Chad, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning. This is Aaron on for Chad. Thanks for taking the question. Yeah, appreciate all the details so far. Just maybe on rest of world, those revenues obviously grew pretty substantially in the quarter. Any markets you would highlight as driving that growth, and how much visibility do you have into the run rate growth there? Thank you.

Speaker 3

You want me to take that? Okay. The beauty of this part of the business is that really is a little bit of contribution from different parts of the business that are concurring together to a sound Q3 and kind of year-to-date performance. Here, Q3, we are able to increase kind of in the $12 million range year-to-date, already $30 million. Again, this is cutting across the different geographies, either work in progress implementation, deliveries associated with new contracts, like Lotterywest in Australia, is system installations that are underway and either fully executed, approved, or in the process of, like in Central Europe, some contract extensions in Eastern Europe. Even the iLottery interactive platform that we deploy outside of the U.S. is contributing to that. Then obviously, last but not least, is the Italy digital business, particularly associated with iLottery, iCasino, and sports betting.

Speaker 3

Again, we are still talking small numbers, and we expect those numbers to come up pretty soon, and then kind of double that up from a run rate perspective. But again, when you start counting the months one after the other, we are getting to a number that by the end of the year is going to be kind of north of $10 million. Again, overall, very, very pleased with the orchestration of the different services that we provide to the market, helping kind of support our strong performance, irrespective of multi-state jackpot weakness and those short-term temporary hiccups that happen in markets like in Italy due to the trucker strike. So, very, very confident we have a sound business that can help navigate those times. Thank you.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. That is helpful. Quickly on Italy digital. Here in the U.S., a lot of B2C companies talk about a roughly 20-month payback period. Curious how you are thinking about that, the payback period in Italy, given that market. Do you expect anything different, or should it kind of follow that roughly two-year payback timeline? Thank you.

Speaker 3

On average, I think we see similar trends in the U.S. on our own digital business. Again, there is an investment period that you have to go through before you can really start seeing a profit coming home, and then you have a very scalable business that can ramp up the profit margin nicely. On the Italian side, I think we have, I believe, more control on the cost side, and we may be able to kind of mitigate that initial negative curve, trying to, again, hold the line, and then obviously, as we build up our business, start growing that profit much faster than that.

Speaker 9

Awesome. Thank you.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Vince Sadusky, CEO, for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you all. We would say our third quarter year-to-date performance demonstrates our progress against the goals. We think the core lottery business remains solid, and we have seen acceleration in our strategic initiatives, and we think that will continue to contribute more meaningfully. We are also in a strong financial position to invest in opportunities while return significant capital to shareholders, and we appreciate your interest in Brightstar. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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