National CineMedia Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 26, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: NCM reported a strong fourth quarter with $93.2 million in total revenue (up ~8% YoY) and $37.2 million of Adjusted OIBDA (up 6% YoY), driven by healthy advertiser demand and improved inventory monetization.
  • Positive Sentiment: Programmatic and self-serve offerings gained traction—programmatic revenue grew 100% year-over-year and self-serve was up 64%—expanding access to inventory and attracting more advertisers.
  • Negative Sentiment: Reported attendance benefited from a fiscal 53rd week (Q4 attendance 107M; normalized estimate ~92M, down ~9% YoY), and unlevered free cash flow fell to $6.1 million from $28.3M due to receivables timing and prior-year prepayments.
  • Positive Sentiment: Strategic moves—an extended AMC agreement that standardized show structure and the acquisition of Spotlight (adding luxury screens)—are improving campaign planning, premium inventory monetization, and appeal to high-end advertisers.
  • Negative Sentiment: Q1 2026 guidance reflects headwinds: revenue of $32.5M–$36.5M and Adjusted OIBDA of −$13M to −$10M, driven by the loss of the holiday week, reduced beverage revenue, and Olympic-related advertiser shifts.
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Earnings Conference Call
National CineMedia Q4 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good day. Welcome to the National CineMedia Q4 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Chan Park, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

Chan Park
Chan Park
VP of Finance at National CineMedia

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Lesinski, and our Chief Financial Officer, Ronnie Ng. I would like to remind our listeners that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than statements of historical facts communicated during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks, and uncertainties. Important factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations are disclosed in the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by such factors. Further, our discussion today includes some non-GAAP measures.

Chan Park
Chan Park
VP of Finance at National CineMedia

In accordance with Regulation G, we have reconciled these amounts back to the closest GAAP basis measurement. These reconciliations can be found at the end of today's earnings release or on the investor relations page of our website at ncm.com. Now I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Thank you, Chan. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our 4th quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. 2025 was a year of meaningful progress for National CineMedia. We executed against our strategic priorities by continuing to invest in our platform and capabilities, driving increased advertiser demand and further positioning NCM to perform against a broader range of attendance environments. We also strengthened our exhibitor relationships, most notably through a new deal with AMC that was announced in the second quarter. The momentum we built throughout the year carried through the fourth quarter as we broadened our industry-leading reach with the acquisition of Spotlight, adding a new high-end luxury option to our network. These actions translated into year-over-year revenue growth, supported by healthy advertiser demand for our sought-after audiences and our continued focus on driving growth across the platform.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

This strength was also reflected in our fourth quarter results. NCM delivered total fourth quarter revenue of $93 million, in line with our guidance range and growing nearly 8% year-over-year, outpacing attendance trends. Adjusted OIBDA for the quarter was $37 million, exceeding our guidance range and representing an increase of 6% versus the prior year, supported by solid revenue performance and the resilience of our asset-light model. These results were driven by healthy advertiser demand and continued improvements in inventory utilization across our network. We generated and successfully captured strong interest against the slate of highly anticipated titles, including Wicked: For Good, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and Zootopia 2. This was made possible by our continued investment in strengthening our sales team, expanding our programmatic platform, and advancing data and measurement capabilities to meet modern advertisers' requirements.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

In particular, our focus on broadening, and enhancing audience targeting, and performance attribution continues to improve the value of NCM's platform, enabling us to attract new advertisers, and deepen relationships with existing ones. During the quarter, 18 advertisers placed cinema advertising campaigns at or above the million-dollar level, reflecting growing confidence in cinema as a core advertising channel. Total advertising revenue increased 9% versus the prior year to $90 million, driven by continued performance in the retail, wireless, and travel categories alongside growth in the entertainment and media, pharma, and technology categories. Across the industry, advertiser budgets continued to shift toward premium, high-impact environments that drive engagement and brand recall. That shift was reflected in strong sell-through across our premium national inventory led by our Platinum and Post-Show inventory.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

As advertisers allocate more spend toward high-impact brand safe environments, these premium options supported stronger monetization of our inventory and fueled a 27% year-over-year increase in overall impressions sold per attendee in the fourth quarter. We're also seeing tangible benefits from the standardization of our national footprint following our extended agreement with AMC. With a more consistent show structure, we are making campaign planning and scaling more efficient, strengthening our ability to drive demand, and improve inventory monetization over time. Given the ongoing industry-wide tailwinds and our superior platform, we believe NCM is well-positioned to capture a greater share of advertiser budgets, and we're seeing strong early demand indicators for 2026. Looking at the domestic box office, performance was mixed this quarter. While the quarterly box office total fell shy of industry expectations, NCM saw meaningful revenue pickup in the middle, and tail end of the quarter.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

This was driven by major franchise releases, including Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: The Way of Water, that supported solid bookings and campaign activities as moviegoers continued to demonstrate their enduring love for cinema in the critical holiday period. Total attendance across NCM's network in the fourth quarter increased approximately 7% year-over-year to 107 million. With advertising revenue up 9% over that same period, we grew ahead of attendance, underscoring the value of our audiences, continuing appeal of our platform, and progress in efficiently monetizing open inventory across our network. As a reminder, NCM's year-over-year attendance growth also reflects the inclusion of an extra week in our fiscal fourth quarter this year. Despite this additional week of attendance, total advertising revenue per attendee increased in the fourth quarter, reflecting strong demand from advertisers.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Turning to our programmatic and self-serve initiatives, which are critical components of our strategy in capturing more premium video ad spend and increasing on-screen and in-lobby inventory utilization. Programmatic revenue increased 100% year-over-year as the offering continued to unlock new portions of client advertising budgets, specifically earmarked for programmatic initiatives. Compared to the prior year period, the total number of programmatic advertisers in the fourth quarter increased 2.4 times, reflecting our continued investment in additional supply-side platform partnerships that further broaden access to our inventory and drive continued adoption by advertisers. Industry standardization continues to advance scalable access to cinema inventory, including recently updated inventory classifications that improve the discoverability of cinema within omni-channel programmatic workflows. Turning to local, self-serve also gained further traction following the launch of the upgraded platform earlier in the year.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Our generative AI-enabled tools increase creative control, and shorten time to market, driving particular value for small and mid-sized advertisers, as well as large advertisers looking to localize their national campaigns for greater impact. Looking at fourth quarter self-serve performance, we delivered 64% year-over-year growth. Self-serve remains a key driver of our long-term growth strategy, helping drive both national and local demand by making cinema advertising easier to access while allowing our sales team to prioritize larger, more strategic opportunities. In the fourth quarter, we saw encouraging signs of improvement as the national market stabilization we experienced in the third quarter extended into local markets as well. Local revenue increased year-over-year, reflecting the progress we're making as we reset and rebuild the local business. Importantly, we're seeing that improvement translate into better operating momentum as we refocus the local organization.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

We also made deliberate investments in local this quarter, including hiring a seasoned new senior leader to sharpen focus, improve operating discipline, and accelerate execution. We've also re-engaged the local sales team around a clearer strategy and increasing day-to-day accountability with a more diversified list of targets and measurable outcomes. Operationally, we continue to scale local data-driven advertiser targeting, deepen our category expertise, and prioritize key verticals including government, automotive, home services, and local law firms. As part of that effort, we are increasingly directing higher-value, relationship-driven accounts to our sales teams while routing smaller transactional opportunities to our self-serve, and programmatic solutions. Our NCMx-powered local data capabilities provide greater visibility into where demand is strongest and where inventory is most attractive, improving planning discipline and execution at the market level. In addition, our AI-enabled creative localization tool, Bullseye, continues to gain traction.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

For example, in the fourth quarter, one of the largest national retailers leveraged this capability to produce over 70 different local creative executions within one campaign, generating over 15 million impressions and demonstrating the power of our platform to enhance national campaigns with meaningful market-specific customizations. The campaign also drove measurable performance results, with third-party measurement showing a 34% lift in foot traffic to retail locations. Taken together, we believe these steps position us for continued improvement in local performance as market conditions improve. Our offering remains a differentiator, giving advertisers a highly effective geo-targeted way to reach desirable audiences in a captive opt-in environment at scale.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

We see local as a meaningful return to growth opportunity supported by our recent leadership investments, a renewed focus on execution, and the positive momentum we saw emerge in the fourth quarter. This year, NCM continued to connect advertisers with sought-after engaged audiences in uniquely immersive ways. As production studios lean in on sequels and remakes to capitalize on fan favorite franchises, we're seeing particularly strong advertiser demand against these films. In addition to our existing premium inventory, we're meeting that demand through custom title-themed pre-shows designed to tap into moviegoer enthusiasm. This quarter, alongside the tentpole release Wicked: For Good, we delivered branded pre-show experiences featuring trivia and franchise flashbacks that celebrated fan engagement. These custom integrations enhanced the value of our pre-show inventory and helped offset the softer than expected box office performance.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Given their success, we plan to significantly expand our custom pre-show activations in 2026, leaning into popular franchise installments such as Toy Story 5, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Minions & Monsters, and Dune: Part Three. We are also leveraging AI-enabled creative tools to accelerate production and customization, allowing us to respond more quickly to early box office signals and capitalize on breakout hits. We also made progress in our network expansion initiative this quarter. The strategic acquisition of Spotlight in November brings premium luxury screens and audiences to our platform, expanding our reach and appeal among high-end luxury advertisers while creating new revenue opportunities. Our Spotlight strategy is progressing as planned and is diversifying and deepening our appeal to new advertisers. As we head into 2026, our continued investments are strengthening NCM's ability to compete and win in the premium video advertising market.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

We remain focused on attracting new advertisers, deepening existing relationships, and continuing to prove the differentiated value of cinema advertising. The upcoming 2026 slate is robust and balanced and represents a meaningful improvement versus recent years, with a more consistent flow of major releases across all four quarters. This steadier cadence supports more predictable campaign planning for advertisers, assuming box office performance tracks current expectations, and provides longer demand-generating runways for highly anticipated tentpoles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, and Avengers: Doomsday. 2026 is shaping up to be the first true benchmark year for the industry since the pandemic and the first normal box office year since the industry strike. As the market continues to return, we believe there is meaningful upside for NCM. Looking to the first quarter, early visibility is encouraging.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

We are seeing continued contribution from December releases, with titles such as Avatar: Fire and Ash, Zootopia 2, and The Housemaid carrying holiday momentum into the start of the year. As Ronnie will explain in his remarks, NCM's 1st quarter results will reflect the absence of the 1st week of January, which was included in our 4th quarter this year. That said, we're encouraged by sustained demand for our inventory, driven by 1st quarter hits including Send Help and Wuthering Heights, and the healthy upfront commitments around the upcoming release of Project Hail Mary. At the same time, our local team remains focused on returning to growth, and our programmatic and self-serve offerings continue to gain traction. With a solid foundation for 2026, we remain focused on disciplined execution and converting advertising momentum, and moviegoer enthusiasm into strong results for our shareholders.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Ronnie.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Thank you, Tom, and good afternoon, everyone. NCM's fourth quarter results demonstrate continued demand from advertisers during the most critical advertising periods, including the end-of-year holiday window. Despite the weaker than expected box office in the fourth quarter, advertisers continued to turn to NCM in recognition of the differentiated value of highly engaged, sought-after cinema audiences. As Tom mentioned, NCM's fourth quarter results also reflect an additional week in the 2025 fiscal year as compared with the previous year, which contributed modestly to our revenue growth but drew comparatively stronger attendance figures. Normalizing for the 53rd week, we estimate that total attendance for the fourth quarter would have been approximately 92 million, down 9% versus the prior year. Against that backdrop, NCM reported total fourth quarter revenue of $93.2 million within our guidance range and up 8% year-over-year.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

This growth was driven by a strong recovery in demand across key advertising categories, including entertainment and media, pharma, and technology. Advertisers also continued to adopt our programmatic platform, driving 100% year-over-year growth in programmatic revenue. Importantly, our programmatic platform continues to help fill available inventory and improve utilization across our network, enabling us to keep total revenue per attendee steady while supporting stronger overall performance. National advertising revenue for the fourth quarter was $76 million, up nearly 10% from $69.2 million in the prior year. In the fourth quarter, we drove a 27% increase in national impressions sold per attendee, reflecting a 72% increase in Platinum impressions sold per attendee and a 53% increase in Post-Show impressions sold per attendee.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

This performance reflects healthy advertiser demand for our premium inventory and the continued benefits of the standardization of our national footprint following our amended agreement with AMC. National revenue per attendee increased to $0.71 in the fourth quarter, supported by the increased advertiser demand and our ongoing efforts to optimize pricing. On a comparable basis, national revenue per attendee increased 10% versus the prior year period. Local and regional advertising revenue for the fourth quarter was $13.8 million, up 2% from $13.5 million in the prior year. We are encouraged by the year-over-year improvement driven by the continued recovery of local advertising demand, coupled with our team's targeted approach and continued investments in our self-serve offering. We saw particular strength across the gaming, retail apparel, technology, and healthcare categories.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Looking ahead, we expect this positive momentum to continue, supported by our focused local sales strategy. Turning to our expenses. Fourth quarter total operating expenses were $69.4 million, up from $66.3 million in the prior year, reflecting one-time charges related to cost savings initiatives and Spotlight transaction costs. Excluding one-time items, depreciation, amortization, and non-cash share-based compensation, our adjusted operating expenses were $56.1 million, up from $51.3 million in the prior year, driven by higher attendance-related exhibitor fees and a slight increase in SG&A. SG&A was up 5% in the fourth quarter, reflecting the inclusion of Spotlight's SG&A expenses and the extra week in the period as compared to the prior year. These additional expenses were partially offset by our continued cost management efforts.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

On a comparable basis versus the prior year, SG&A was down approximately 1% in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter Adjusted OIBDA was $37.2 million, exceeding our guidance range and up 6% from $35 million in the prior year, reflecting the strong holiday period demand, lower than anticipated attendance, and disciplined expense management. Total unlevered free cash flow for the quarter, as defined by cash flow from operations adjusted for cash interest expense less capital expenditures, was $6.1 million, compared to $28.3 million in the prior year. This decrease was primarily driven by a shift in the timing of receivables collections from select agency partners, as well as a tougher comparison to the prior year fourth quarter, which benefited from approximately $13 million in client advance prepayments for advertising scheduled to run throughout 2025.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Turning to our full year results. NCM's full year 2025 total revenue was $243.2 million, up 1% from $240.8 million in 2024. Total revenue was primarily driven by national advertising revenue, which increased 3.5% to $194.5 million. The increase in national advertising revenue was primarily due to a 21% increase in national impressions sold per attendee, and a 3% increase in attendance across our network, due in part to the additional week in our fiscal year 2025. We focus on increasing utilization across our network, we continue to test price in the market to ensure we are optimizing both utilization and monetization to drive revenue growth.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Based on the results we gathered, we strategically decreased national advertising CPMs by 18% year-over-year and are remaining mindful of our monetization rates to ensure NCM's inventory remains both competitive in the market and profitable for the company. Local and regional advertising revenue for the full year was $34.6 million, down from $39.1 million in 2024. This decrease was driven primarily by the trade-related pullback in the pharmaceutical, travel, government, and automotive categories earlier in the year, which has since normalized. This impact was partially offset by an increase in contract activity and size within the gaming, technology, beverages, retail and apparel, and healthcare categories in 2025. Full-year beverage revenue increased 2.9% to $14.1 million in 2025, reflecting the increase in attendance at ESA Party exhibitors across our network.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Turning to our full year expenses. Total operating expenses were $257.1 million, down from $260.3 million in the prior year. This decrease reflects lower amortization expense, administrative costs, and network operating costs in the year, partially offset by higher attendance-related exhibitor fees. Excluding one-time items, depreciation, amortization, and non-cash share-based compensation, our adjusted operating expenses were $204.2 million, up from $195.1 million in the prior year, driven by higher attendance-related exhibitor fees and a slight increase in overhead expenses. Full-year Adjusted OIBDA was $39.1 million, down from $45.7 million in the prior year, primarily driven by the trade-related advertiser headwinds we saw in the first half. Turning to our consolidated balance sheet.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

At the end of the fourth quarter, NCM had $37.6 million of cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities. We had $12 million of total debt at quarter end, reflecting a draw on our revolver relating to the acquisition of Spotlight in the fourth quarter. Importantly, this was a deliberate and temporary use of the revolver to fund a strategic transaction. Turning to shareholder capital returns. In 2025, we returned approximately $33.6 million to shareholders, which included $11.3 million through the dividend program we reinstated this year and $22.3 million contributed toward our ongoing share repurchase program. Under the dividend program, we announce a quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share today, amounting to $2.8 million.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

This quarter's dividend will be paid on March 23rd, 2026, to stockholders of record as of March 9th, 2026. After a period of seasonally higher use of cash for working capital in the third quarter, NCM resumed share repurchases in the fourth quarter, bringing our full-year total to 4.1 million shares repurchased in 2025 at an average price of $5.41 per share. Turning to our guidance. For the first quarter of 2026, it is important to keep in mind that there are several factors to consider which impact the comparability to prior periods. Since this past fourth quarter included a 53rd week, this shift in our calendar year would mean that the first quarter would not have the benefit of the week between Christmas and New Year's.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Secondly, we are expecting reduced beverage revenue due to contractual adjustments and the election by an exhibitor to change the number of beverage spots. If you were to pro forma these changes in beverage revenue for the full year of 2025, the implied impact to total revenue would be slightly below 2%. Lastly, the Winter Olympics this year makes February a tougher comparison as advertisers temporarily shift their focus to the quadrennial event. Importantly, our first quarter outlook does not reflect any change in underlying demand. Advertising momentum remains intact, with revenue for the complete calendar month of January coming in line with the prior year despite the loss of the holiday week.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

With that said, for the first quarter, we expect revenue to be between $32.5 million and $36.5 million, with Adjusted OIBDA between -$13 million and -$10 million. In addition to the factors I just mentioned, our Adjusted OIBDA outlook reflects higher expected attendance-related expenses than the prior year, driven by an increase in moviegoer activity. Looking ahead, we believe the investments we made in 2025 position NCM to capture continued growth in advertiser demand against a strong upcoming slate in 2026. Highly anticipated films including The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Star Wars The Mandalorian & Grogu, and the live action remake of Moana are driving strong interest from advertisers, and we believe we are positioned to capture that demand as it materializes.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

In addition, our asset-light model provides operating leverage that further positions NCM to drive profitable growth as audiences return for these upcoming hits. With positive momentum in our business, a strong 2026 film slate, and a continued investment in our platform, we are well-positioned to continue generating strong results for our shareholders. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw the question, please press star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Eric Wold with Texas Securities. Please go ahead.

Eric Wold
Executive Director of Equity Research at Texas Capital Securities

Thanks, good afternoon. I appreciate you taking my question. A couple of questions. I guess first off, you talked about obviously with regards to Q1 guidance, you know, no change in kind of what you're seeing in terms of advertising demand and the strength you saw in January. I guess looking further out, can you give us a sense of what you're seeing in terms of, you know, forward bookings later in the year versus maybe what you would have seen this time last year? Not looking for specific numbers or guidance, but maybe kind of indications around if advertisers are booking, you know, further out in the film slate, be more comfortable with campaigns later in the year or if they're still waiting a little bit closer to kind of planned advertising dates.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

I think we've commented on the upfront in the past and how that's booked already going forward into this year. Our upfront is, you know, was up year-over-year, so that's obviously a really positive sign correlated to the strength of the upcoming box office slate. As it relates to scatter, you know, we're only really two kind of months into the year, so it's really hard to forecast the Q1 first two months going out further. We are seeing good signs of additional inventory being purchased in Q1, I mean, in Q2 and in Q3. So far, the actual demand and the actual performance on the platform looks good, especially compared to last year.

Eric Wold
Executive Director of Equity Research at Texas Capital Securities

Perfect. The follow-up question, you know, obviously with the, with the strong demand you're seeing, strength you're seeing with both the Platinum and the Post-Showtime, especially now with AMC coming into the mix. How much of a benefit could that start to have or is having on the average revenue per impression? Has that become continued to grow as a portion of revenue? How much of a tailwind could that have on that, on that metric?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Well, I think, you know, the AMC piece of the equation that you discussed is critical 'cause obviously you're comparing year-over-year where we didn't have it. Eventually, that will even out on a comp basis. Clearly that inventory, both the Post-Showtime and the Platinum part of it, are obviously much more expensive inventory. That is definitely going to be, you know, a tailwind for us. You know, it was obviously one of the primary reasons we did that new agreement. You know, we're seeing the benefits of that and, you know, so far this year looks really good on the Platinum and on the Post-Showtime front, especially with the addition of AMC.

Eric Wold
Executive Director of Equity Research at Texas Capital Securities

Perfect. Thank you.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Thank you. Thank you, Eric.

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Sholl with Barrington Research. Please go ahead.

Patrick Sholl
Vice President and Research Analyst at Barrington Research Associates

Hi. just with the fourth quarter being a little bit softer than expected, did that create like any sort of issue in terms of like make-goods? I guess, is there any sense on how advertisers would fulfill that over the course of the year?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Yeah. Pat, I think you're referring to the box office in the fourth quarter coming lower than expected. You're right. You know, there's a few films that obviously contributed to that between Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Now, going exiting out of the year, there was a higher amount of ADUs or make good than we traditionally had in other fourth quarters because of that. Which also, by the way, is a good representation of that demand. What the tricky part is in terms of fulfilling the make good for 2026, is that it's not gonn benall fulfilled in the first quarter.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

It will be over the course of the next, 2 to 3 quarters, so anywhere between the first and the third quarter.

Patrick Sholl
Vice President and Research Analyst at Barrington Research Associates

Okay. Can you provide any more detail just sort of sizing out that week between Christmas and New Year's and the contribution that that provides on a revenue basis? Just how you kind of view the film slate over the course of the year and creating kind of a critical mass of attendees to, you know, maintain?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Yeah.

Patrick Sholl
Vice President and Research Analyst at Barrington Research Associates

consistent advertiser demand. Thank you.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

What I will say about the last week, because the, you know, for us, this year, in terms of that week between Christmas and New Year's, was really strong. Much stronger than the one we experienced in 2024. The total ad revenue was multiples higher for that week. What I'll also say is that if you were to look at the fourth quarter periods between 25 and 24, and you were to add that week into 24, the comparable revenue per attendee would have been up in the low double % area. That should give you a sense of how strong that demand was in that last week.

Patrick Sholl
Vice President and Research Analyst at Barrington Research Associates

Okay. Thank you.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Hickey with StoneX. Please go ahead.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

Hey, Tom, Ronnie, Chan. Great job on 4Q here.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Thank you, Mike.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

Q2, Q3. You're welcome. Q-Q4, obviously it's a pretty big expectation. I think everyone's afraid to put it in the math. I respect that, but the box office looks like we could get some real growth here this year. Just curious how correlated your ad business is, Tom, to the growth of the box. We see the box growing strong. Should we also expect your business to pick up? I'm also curious, I mean, are you seeing it on the media buyers? Like, are they also excited for the slate, whether it's scatter or upfront, wherever they buy it? Are you seeing... I would imagine that given the demo that you serve, the excitement for the slate, that their interest has picked up this year versus prior.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Yeah. There definitely is a lot of excitement in Q2 and Q3. Obviously it's probably the best set of movies since 2019. We're really optimistic about the performance of those movies. That enthusiasm we have has translated into the marketplace, advertisers are cleanly lining up, you know, for the Q2 and Q3 slate. We've been talking about the return of a really healthy slate, you know, that diversified across a lot of different genres. We have that in Q2 and Q3. Obviously some very well-known movies and some new ones. I can say that, you know, the confidence that we have with the box office and with the mix of titles has translated into what we believe are really good, solid bookings in Q2 and Q3.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Obviously, you know, there's still the scatter market to play through, over the next, you know, two quarters. We're really optimistic about what the next two quarters look like for us.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

Given that backdrop, Tom, and where your stock is, do you still have the balance sheet here to be more aggressive on a buyback?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

I think in terms of the buyback, you know, we've actually, you know, if you look back since the start of this program and plus the dividends that we pay, we've returned nearly $50 million of capital back to shareholders. You know, like, every quarter and every month, we do take a look at our buyback program versus where we see obviously where free cash flow would be. I think we'll continue to, you know, review that and utilize every tool at our disposal, you know, when the opportunity provides.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

I think you said, Ronnie, that you took your CPM down by 18%. I'm not sure I heard that right. Was that for 25? Obviously, maintaining your rate card has been something you guys have done historically. Can you just talk about, if I'm right, if I heard that right, the decision to do that and how that sort of sets you up this year...

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Yeah.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

as more of a value play, I guess.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Mike, you did hear that correctly for on a full year basis. Part of that also relates to you know, the strategy around utilizing programmatic in certain spots as well, right? That will affect CPM to better inventory utilization or increase inventory utilization. That did factor into that. The other part of it as well is just being opportunistic in terms of opening up different categories you know, in advertising categories. Certain advertising categories historically have always been lower CPMs. The truth as well is that they have large, larger and deeper pockets.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

When we actually, you know, broaden our advertising base, you'll naturally, go into different advertising categories that just, you know, have lower CPMs, for that market.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

Last question, Scott. It sounded like the Olympics was a negative for you. Is the World Cup a negative? Is the political spend anticipated here later midterms, is that also a negative or are those positives? Thank you, guys.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

I think the political monies have the potential to be a upside for us. We've been, you know, working heavily on courting that different kind of advertiser for a while now, and we certainly have the opportunity to monetize that. I don't think the World Cup's going to be comparable in my mind in the U.S. advertising impact. The U.S. Olympic advertising and sponsorship and, I think it's more pervasive and across more categories. The World Cup obviously will be popular here, but the commitment that advertisers made with the network across all of the Olympics is really substantial. Obviously, we knew it was coming, so, you know, we planned around it. We even took advantage of it to some degree.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

I wouldn't suspect it will be similar, on the World Cup. Certainly, World Cup is a big deal, but the advertising impact, I think from the Olympics is more substantial in the industry than on the World Cup in the U.S.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

Yeah. Mike, I also add one thing to that is the Olympics happens, you know, in February, in the first quarter where the total advertising demand across all markets is lower. Grabbing that extra pie or attention and trying to get that away from the Olympic event is just gonna be harder versus the World Cup, which is gonna be in June.

Mike Hickey
Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX

Yep. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Good luck.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alicia Reese with Wedbush. Please go ahead.

Alicia Reese
SVP, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities

All right. Thanks, guys, for taking my question. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the national advertising opportunity as you shift to local, if that is incremental ad dollars from those national advertisers who wish to do more local advertising, or if they're, it's a bit of cannibalization, maybe on a different CPM rate. If you could talk a little bit more about that detail and remind us if that stays in the national bucket versus the local regional.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

we're definitely seeing some advertise. It's actually situation dependent with whoever that advertiser is. We are seeing some national advertisers that are looking, you know, on a more regional basis, right? Obviously that's would be beneficial to local advertising. I wouldn't think about it as cannibalization of one bucket versus the other or overall in our total advertising revenue. I, you know, from our perspective, we'll always do business or place advertising when it's economically beneficial. Obviously, like, there are some CPM differences between the local markets, regional markets and national. In some instances, local market CPMs are actually at a premium to national CPMs.

Ronnie Ng
Ronnie Ng
Chief Financial Officer at National CineMedia

It's gonna be really dependent on what time of the year, and what our advertisers are really looking for. We believe that, you know, it's all accretive, at the end of the day because it's all increasing demand throughout the show.

Alicia Reese
SVP, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities

Perfect. Yeah. That's what, that was the implication of that, so I appreciate the clarity on it. For the, for the political advertising, historically, correct me if I'm wrong, the exhibitors have not, allowed political advertising. Has that changed?

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

You know, I don't wanna get into the specifics of it 'cause it's a political issue. Just kidding. The truth of it is there is an interest from select exhibitors, not all, to support political. Depending on who we're talking about in particular, some we can do quite readily. In some cases, you know, there's an approval process required, but we've been working on that for, you know, a couple years now. I think more and more people are seeing it as an opportunity that's mutually beneficial, assuming it's the right kind of advertising. We're optimistic about that.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

I think in certain select markets, you know, the key markets in swing states and whatnot, that there will be a lot of demand for political for our platform.

Alicia Reese
SVP, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities

Most certainly. Yeah, that seems like a real upside opportunity for you. All right. Thanks for taking my questions. Appreciate it.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

You're welcome.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Tom Lesinski, CEO, for any closing remarks.

Tom Lesinski
Tom Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer at National CineMedia

Thank you for joining us today. NCM's fourth quarter results reflect the hard work of our team and our continued focus on driving higher advertiser demand and efficiently monetizing inventory across our network. As advertiser enthusiasm for our platform strengthens, we are increasingly confident in our strategy and our ability to deliver differentiated value through premium immersive cinema advertising experiences. With a robust and balanced 2026 film slate ahead, we look forward to continuing to connect brands with highly sought after engaged audiences while strengthening our competitive position through ongoing investments in our platform. Thank you for your support.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Chan Park
      Chan Park
      VP of Finance
    • Ronnie Ng
      Ronnie Ng
      Chief Financial Officer
    • Tom Lesinski
      Tom Lesinski
      Chief Executive Officer
Analysts
    • Alicia Reese
      SVP, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities
    • Eric Wold
      Executive Director of Equity Research at Texas Capital Securities
    • Mike Hickey
      Senior Analyst and Equity Research Analyst at StoneX
    • Patrick Sholl
      Vice President and Research Analyst at Barrington Research Associates
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