Banco Santander Chile Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q2 profitability was exceptionally strong, with attributable net income of CLP 382.6 billion, up 40% year over year, and quarterly ROE of 31.5%. Results benefited from elevated inflation, alongside disciplined costs and risk management.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management raised its 2026 ROE outlook to above 24%, supported by slightly higher full-year NIM of approximately 4.1%, further efficiency gains into the low-30% range, and cost of risk near 1.35%.
  • Negative Sentiment: The macroeconomic backdrop has weakened, with the 2026 growth forecast cut to about 1%, unemployment rising to 9.3%, and renewed inflation pressure. Loan growth is expected near the lower end of the mid-single-digit range, around 4.5%.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Asset quality remains manageable but has softened, with NPLs at 3.4% and impaired loans at 7.5%; management expects full-year cost of risk between 1.35% and 1.4%, with only marginal improvement likely in 2027.
  • Positive Sentiment: The approved reconstruction plan, expanded mortgage subsidies and guarantees, and potential market-risk capital reform could support investment, housing demand, loan origination, and capital efficiency. Management estimates the proposed market-risk framework could eventually add roughly 75 basis points to Santander Chile’s CET1 ratio, although implementation timing is uncertain.
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Earnings Conference Call
Banco Santander Chile Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and I would like to welcome you to Banco Santander-Chile's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call on August 5, 2026. Please note at this point, all participant lines are in listen-only mode. After the call, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. With this, I would now like to pass the line to Patricia Pérez, the Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Patricia Pérez
Patricia Pérez
CFO at Banco Santander-Chile

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am Patricia Pérez, CFO of Banco Santander-Chile, and I'm joined by Cristián Vicuña, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations, and Andrés Sansone, Chief Economist. This quarter reinforces the strength of our franchise, high profitability, disciplined cost management, and a solid capital position. While we continue to execute our strategy to deliver a simpler and enhanced value proposition to customers with a focus on sustainable growth and shareholder returns. First, Andrés will give you an overview of the economic and regulatory environment. Cristián will then walk you through our strategy, our second quarter results, and our updated view for 2026. Finally, we will conclude with a Q&A session. With that, let me turn it over to Andrés Sansone.

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

Thanks, Patricia. Let me start with the big picture. Since our last webcast, the global backdrop has remained complex. External inflationary pressures remain, with geopolitical tensions driving oil prices and the inflationary scenario for Chile. At the same time, long-term rates have moved higher, and expectations for monetary policy abroad have shifted upward, leaving global financial conditions less supportive. For Chile, this has translated into a weaker peso, around CLP 930 per dollar during the last month, and renewed pressures on short-term inflation. Locally, the June CPI was flat month-on-month, but still above expectation, bringing annual inflation to 4.3%, with the surprise mainly concentrated on food. Some short-term inflation expectations have increased, and now we expect a variation of 4.4% in 2026 in the U.S., although the two-year expectations remain anchored at 3%. On activity, the economy continued to lose momentum during the first half of the year.

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

The weakness has been concentrated in three areas. First, supply shocks in natural resources sectors, particularly mining and fishing. Second, the impact of higher oil and fuel prices on household disposable income. Third, a slower-than-expected recovery in construction. Beyond these three factors, the labor market has also weakened, with seasonal adjusted unemployment rising to 9.3%. Looking ahead, activity should improve gradually. Mining production faces a more favorable comparison base in the coming months. The mining and energy investment pipeline remains solid, and the recent fall in fuel prices should help restore part of the disposable income lost during the oil shock. Pro-growth reforms, if approved and effectively implemented, can lift the country's potential growth over the medium term. Based on this information, our economic team has revised down its 2026 growth forecast, with the economy now expected to expand close to 1% this year.

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

The outlook for 2027 remains more constructive, supported by investment and a low comparison base. In this context, we continue to expect the central bank to keep the policy rate at 4.5% for an extended period. Overall, the message is that inflation risks have increased again, while activity, although improving at the margin, will remain weak this year, making the macro scenario more challenging and calling for a more cautious monetary policy stance. Now turning to the regulatory and policy environment on slide five. The main development is the completion of the National Reconstruction Plan bill passage through Congress. Yesterday, the Senate approved the last outstanding provision. The bill is therefore now ready for enactment. The bill includes several pro-market initiatives aimed at reactivating growth.

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

On the business and investment side, the most relevant measures are the gradual reduction in the corporate tax rate from 27%-23% between 2027 and 2029, the reintegration of the tax system, investment incentives and tax stability, faster permitting process, and reconstruction spend. We believe these measures should support private investment, improve business confidence, and strengthen economic activity over time. Moreover, the bill includes household support measures such as the temporary VAT exception on new homes Housing reconstruction programs, and improved housing affordability and employment support. If these are implemented effectively, these measures should support housing demand, mortgage origination, and consumer activity. Complementing this, the government has just submitted a bill to extend and expand the mortgage interest rate subsidy and the FOGAES estate guarantee for first home purchases. The proposal raises the number of subsidies from 50,000-80,000.

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

Also lifts the maximum value of eligible new homes from 4,000 UF-6,000 UF, and extends the program until May 2026. Combined with the temporary VAT exemption on new homes, this should improve affordability for middle-income households, help absorb the stock of more than 100,000 unsold units, and therefore has the potential to support mortgage origination and a recovery in the construction sector. In addition, we continue to monitor other regulatory relevant changes, including the repos and securitization law, the proposed model for markets risk-weighted assets, and the advances toward internal models for credit risk. With that, let me hand over to Cristián.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you, Andrés. I will now walk you through our strategy, our second quarter 2026 results, and our outlook for the rest of the year. Let me start with the strategy. At the center of what we do is a clear ambition: to become a digital bank with a physical presence, leveraging our Work Café branches to combine the convenience of scale and the digital banking with advice, service, and proximity for our customers, leveraging the support of the Santander Group and its global platforms. We organize this around three pillars. First, think customer. We aim to offer the best value proposition to all our customer segments, grow active customers, increase transactionality, and deepen loyalty. We aim to serve over 3.5 million active customers, and we continue to see room to improve the customer experience, raise NPS, and capture a greater share of wallet, especially in higher value segments.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Second, think global. We are accelerating our digital transformation through global platforms and an AI-enabled operating model. These allow us to simplify processes, improve the digital experience, deploy capacities faster, and operate with greater agility, productivity, and efficiency in an increasingly dynamic environment. Third, think value. Our goal here is to translate the strong customer franchise and an efficient operating model into recurring high-quality profitability. This means continuing to diversify revenues, leveraging other income streams while maintaining a strong focus on returns and capital discipline. Overall, our strategy is designed to grow customers and loyalty, increase transactionality, improve the quality of revenues, and as a result, deliver sustainable returns and an attractive payout to shareholders. This strategy is supported by a diversified platform with five complementary business lines.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Retail and commercial remains the core of the franchise, where we are simplifying products and processes and continuing to build on the Work Café model. Corporate and investment banking adds strength in advisory, FX, and transactional banking capabilities with a clear focus on sustainable solutions and capital optimization. Wealth management and insurance strengthens our advisory-led model, renews our private banking proposition, and reinforces our position in insurance and mutual funds. Consumer banking supports our leadership in auto financing, including new and electric vehicles, while also expanding our presence in used car financing. Through Getnet, our payment business is helping us reach new client segments with value-added services and simple bundled solutions. Retail remains the backbone of the balance sheet, representing 66% of loans, 48% of deposits, and 69% of the margin. At the same time, we have meaningful contributions from CIB payments wealth into the fee business.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

The Santander global platforms are helping us connect this business effectively, improve efficiency, and diversify revenues. That supports stable profitability through the cycle and reinforces our ability to deliver attractive shareholders' returns. Before we move on, I want to pause for a moment on something we are generally proud of, the external recognition our work has earned over the past year. It is a strong reflection of the progress we have made for our customers. Starting on the left with our awards and recognitions. Recently, Euromoney named us Best Bank in Chile, Best Bank for ESG, and Best Bank for SMEs for 2026, three of their most important categories in a single year. This is in addition to the recognitions last year from LatinFinance and The Banker, where we were awarded the Best Bank in Chile for 2025, and Global Finance awarded us Best Bank for SMEs in 2025.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

On the right, our ESG ratings and index inclusions tell a complementary story. For the first time this year, we were included in the Dow Jones Best-in-Class World Index. This is an outstanding achievement, being the only Chilean bank to qualify for the World Index. Furthermore, we hold an MSCI ESG rating of AA and a Sustainalytics risk rating of 15.4 of low risk. These are independent, rigorous assessments, but they confirm that the way we grow matters to us. We also wanted to briefly comment on an announcement we made last week. Santander is taking the naming rights of one of Chile's most iconic venues. From September, the 15,000-seat arena at the Parque O'Higgins becomes Santander Arena. This venue is ranked by Pollstar among the top three venues in the world by annual attendance.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

More than just brand recognition, this move allows us to connect with clients and potential clients in a highly engaging setting. We can leverage our payment capabilities with simple services and easy digital onboarding, offering concertgoers relevant, accessible solutions on the spot. This is a current example of the different ways we're implementing our strategy to become a digital bank and focusing on our customer needs and value creation. Let me now move to our financial performance on slide 11. The second quarter showed exceptionally strong profitability, supported by the particularly high inflation in the quarter and continued execution of our strategy. Net income attributable to shareholders reached over CLP 382.6 billion in the quarter, increasing 40% quarter-over-quarter and also 40% year-over-year. This translated into a return of average equity of 31.5% in the quarter and 27.2% year to date.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

This quarter demonstrates the earning power of the bank when revenue's tailwind combines with strong efficiency and disciplined risk management happens. On slide 12, looking at the balance sheet, we saw better loan growth dynamics in the quarter while customer funds also increased. Total loans reached CLP 41.4 trillion, up 1.2% year to date and 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. Mortgage loans grew 2.0% in the quarter, in part due to the impact of higher inflation, but also due to better new origination trends. Commercial loans increased 1.3%, where we saw an incipient improvement in demand from our clients. Consumer lending overall was relatively stable, with some pressure in credit cards and installment loans, in part due to better liquidity for our clients in the quarter. Auto loans continued to shine, growing 1.8% in the quarter and 4.9% year to date.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

On the funding side, total deposits reached CLP 32.4 trillion, increasing 6% year to date and 4.5% quarter-over-quarter. This was mainly driven by time deposits, which grew 11.8% year to date and 7% on the quarter. It is worth mentioning the better growth of demand deposits too in the quarter. Demand for mutual funds remains strong. Total customer funds reached CLP 48.3 trillion, up 7.1% year to date and 4% on the quarter. Liquidity remains strong, comfortably above regulatory requirements. On Slide 13, we can see our net interest income and margins. In the first six months of 2026, combined net income from interest and readjustments reached CLP 1.11 trillion, increasing 7.4% year-over-year and 27% QoQ, driven by the strong inflation in the second quarter when the UF variation was 2.46%, which supported net readjustment income and dropped the quarterly NIM to 4.7%.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Meanwhile, the monetary policy rate remained at 4.5% in the quarter. With this, our year-to-date NIM reached 4.3%, up 16 basis points year-over-year and 89 basis points QoQ Client activity and expansion of our client base remain a central part of our story. We reached 4.8 million total clients and 2.7 million active clients, meaning that 56% of total clients are active. Total customers increased 7% year-over-year, while active clients increased 1.3% year-over-year. Activity indicators remain positive. Checking accounts increased 6% year-over-year. Credit card transactions increased 11%. Mutual funds assets under management increased 8%, and we now have 519,000 business current accounts. Fees plus financial transactions reached CLP 452 billion on the first half, growing 4.9% year-over-year. Within this, total fees were broadly stable year-over-year, while results from financial transactions increased 16%, supported by market-related income.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

In the quarter, we saw slower dynamics coming from lower transactionality and customer demand impacted by oil prices and lower results from financial transactions after a strong quarter driven by demand for market-making products and higher income from portfolio sales. On slide 15, efficiency continues to be one of Santander's key differentiators. Our efficiency ratio reached 31.6% in the first half of 2026, positioning us as the most efficient bank in Chile based on the industry information available as of May. Operating expenses decreased 4.3% year-over-year, with total core expenses down 3.5%. This continues to reflect the benefits of our digital model, operating discipline, and the normalization of technology-related costs after the cloud migration expenses that we had at the beginning of last year. Our recurrence ratio reached 64.1%, meaning that fees generated from clients cover more than 60% of our core expenses.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

This reflects the benefits of our digital model and ongoing optimization of our branch network, reaching 91 Work Cafés throughout Chile. On slide 16, we show an overview of our cost of risk and asset quality. On the asset quality side, trends remain stable. Cost of risk was 1.38% year to date, broadly in line with our expected range, and the quarterly cost of risk decreased to 1.22% in the second quarter from 1.55% in the first quarter after the one-off provisioning event in the commercial portfolio at the beginning of the year was subsequently reversed in recent months. The bank continues to actively manage different parts of the portfolio. NPLs reached 3.4% of loans, while impaired loans reached 7.5% of loans. These indicators show a moderate increase, but the overall trend remains manageable and consistent with the macro environment that we saw in the past quarter.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Capital remains a strength. Our BIS ratio stood at 16.4% and the CET1 at 11.1% as of June 2026. This places our CET1 ratio around 200 basis points above the regulatory minimum of 9.08% for 2026. Risk-weighted assets remain mainly concentrated in credit risk, which accounts for around 70% of total risk-weighted assets, while market risk represents 18% and operational risk 12%. The risk-weighted asset density stands at 62%. We also see positive regulatory developments. The proposed new model for market risk-weighted assets would incorporate the duration model for interest rate risk and improve netting of the derivative positions used to mitigate interest rate risk. The definitive model is still pending publication, but the direction is positive. To conclude, on slide 19, let me summarize our updated view for 2026.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

At the start of the year, our initial targets assume mid-single digit loan growth, NIMs of around 4%, non-interest income growth in the mid to high single digits, and an efficiency ratio in the mid-30s, cost of risk of around 1.3%, and a return on average equity between 22% and 24%. Based on our performance so far this year and the updated macro assumptions, we now expect loan growth to remain in the mid-single digits. NIMs should be slightly higher, around 4.1% for the full year. Non-interest income growth in the mid-single digits, with efficiency improving further into the low 30s%. Our cost of risk should be around 1.35% for the full year. The key change versus the initial view is that higher inflation has supported NIM and profitability, while our efficiency and risk metrics remain solid.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

At the same time, we remain cautious on the macro backdrop and continue to prioritize profitable growth, asset quality, and capital discipline. Considering all this, we're expecting the bank to generate return over average equity of above 24% for this year. To sum up, Santander Chile delivered a strong set of results with return over average equity above our long-term target, solid customer activity, resilient asset quality. Furthermore, we saw the incipient signs of better loan demand and external factors such as the regulations that are currently under discussion should be positive for the bank coming periods. With that, I conclude the presentation. Thank you very much for the attention, and we will now be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you very much. We now move to the question and answer section. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. If you are dialed in via the web, you can also request to ask a voice question. Our first question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Patricia and Cristián and all your team. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions and congrats on your results. I have a couple of questions from my side. The first question is on the tax reform. If we assume a normalized inflation of 3% over the next years, how should we think about the evolution of your effective tax rate with the new tax reform? Also, I believe this year, 2026, will be untypical because high inflation is making it to be low. Also, if you can comment how you're seeing 2026, and then with the implementation of the tax reform, how it should be evolving in the next three years. My second question is on your sustainable ROE. We saw you are improving your ROE guidance to have an ROE above 24% in this year.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America

You are keeping a long-term ROE guidance of above 20%. Can you walk us through when should we expect a more long-term ROE at the 20% level? Just to have an idea on how should we be thinking about that in the next years. Thank you.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you, Ernesto, for the questions. Regarding the effective tax rate, there are several things mixed here, right? The current tax rate in Chile is 27%, and the proposed is going to reduce the effective tax rate gradually in a couple of years up to the level of 2023. The effect is not going to be immediate in terms of the effective tax rate that the bank's going to be paying. Gradually, you're going to be seeing a natural push for a normalized effective tax rate, going below to what we currently have. At the same time, in this high inflation scenario, we're seeing a resizing of the equity tax book that it's used to calculate the effective tax rate. We are seeing both phenomenas at the same time. We're currently pushing on to the low teens, the effective tax rate.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

I think that the more reasonable scenario is to expect an effective tax rate into the high teens or very low 20s on a normalized scenario environment. I hope that actually gives you an idea of where we should be on normal years after the tax reform is implemented. Regarding the long-term ROE, we have been able to deliver since the second quarter of 2024, a sustained trend of ROEs above 20%. At the same time, we have been able to develop on our strategy and continue improving on efficiency. Our long-term ROE update was fairly recent. It's been a year since we updated our long-term ROE.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

It's probably something that we will review in the near term, but for the current periods, we are still thinking that the scenario is that we are going to be delivering the 20+, and we hope to continue on sustaining the current performances.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America

Perfect. No, thank you very much, Cristián. Just a follow-up in terms of the effective tax rate. You were saying we should expect something between the high teens and below the low 20s. Is that correct?

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Right. Yeah.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

18-20 area is where this should be on a stabilized normal scenario. That's going to take a couple of years, right?

Ernesto Gabilondo
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America

This gradual implementation is around 1.5% per year. Is that correct?

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Yeah. That's correct.

Ernesto Gabilondo
Ernesto Gabilondo
Analyst at Bank of America

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you, Ernesto.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Yuri Fernandes
Yuri Fernandes
Analyst at JPMorgan

Thank you. Hi, everybody, and congrats on the quarter. Hi, Patricia, Cristián. I have a question regarding the ROEs. I think the guidance is clear for this year, above 24, but it's a year with pretty high inflation. My question is on a normalized base, right now you have the lower taxes, it helps a little bit. Do you have any idea what should we work on, I don't know, not a guidance for 2027, but in a few years, what would be the level of returns we should expect for Santander? Is 20, 22 a good number for you? I have a second question just on regulation. I think tax is pretty positive, but sometimes we also hear some flexibilization on capital requirement in Chile. Sometimes I also hear about maybe some more flexibilization on interest rate gap.

Yuri Fernandes
Yuri Fernandes
Analyst at JPMorgan

Are you seeing more good things to happen in the sector? Can you give us an update on what should be the good news here for banks in Chile in the coming years? Thank you.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you for the questions, Yuri. Tackling the ROE question first, and then I'll ask Andrés and Patricia to contribute on the regulation front. We have been able to deliver on our strategy, right? We have been able to sustain and improve our levels of efficiency. NIMs have remained stable for the last two years, taking inflation phenomena aside. We've been able to grow the customer base and at the same time, delivering on the fee side of the business, right? All of this included, gives you an idea that it's very feasible for us to deliver on a normalized cycle, an ROE of above 20%. That's the area what we are aiming, right? A little of inflation helps. A little of less effective tax rate, of course, also helps.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

In normal years, we are aiming to push slightly above the 20% ROE, but considering that there might be years with a slowdown in GDP expansion and inflation, we also have to take into consideration those sorts of periods where we might be in the very high teens to low 20s%, right? That's to give you an idea. We are going to try to update with this figure in the upcoming calls. Now I'll pass the ball to Andrés for regulation.

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

Okay. Yes. Okay. First of all, the National Reconstruction Plan is clearly the most important positive development currently on the table. Then we have this extension on the FOGAES mortgage guarantee program that could also support mortgage origination and help normalize the housing market. From a capital perspective, we continue to see constructive discussions around the market risk-weighted asset framework. The proposal under discussion will better recognize hedging benefits and include duration-based approach for interest rate risk, which could eventually translate into more efficient use of capital for the industry. We are also monitoring progress on the REPO and securitization framework. Finally, advances toward internal models for credit risk remain an important near-term opportunity. Overall, we see regulatory agenda becoming more growth-oriented. The largest near-term impact is likely coming from the reconstruction bill, while capital efficiency and investment-related measures could become increasingly relevant over the medium term.

Patricia Pérez
Patricia Pérez
CFO at Banco Santander-Chile

Regarding capital regulation, and market risk in particular, based on the CMF estimates, the industry could benefit from this new regulation, roughly 36% reduction in their market risk RWAs, right? Which for Santander Chile would represent around 75 basis points of CET1. While the potential impact is clearly meaningful for us, it's important to note that the adoption is subject to a regulatory approval process that requires the submission of reviewing the supporting documentation that the banks could deliver. The proposal does not define the approval timelines, we are quite concerned. We remain conservative about the implementation date and timing we could benefit from that change.

Patricia Pérez
Patricia Pérez
CFO at Banco Santander-Chile

Regarding internal models, yesterday, the CMF just published a consultation paper that would allow banks to use internal models for both provision and regulatory capital, which is broadly consistent with the direction the regulator has been signaling over recent months. That said, this is a long-term initiative. We would expect any meaningful impact to materialize gradually over a three- to five-year horizon, given the complexity of the approval and implementation process. In our case, our internal models roadmap will remain aligned with the framework already defined for the European regulator. We think we have a strong starting position as we have been operating for several years with approved internal models covering part of our large corporate lending portfolio.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

To sum up, Yuri, the regulator, in our view, is tackling the missing part of the implementation of the Basel III framework in Chile. Until December last year, all banks were focused on constructing all the pillars, buffers, and CET1 requirements. Now that the regulator is addressing the second part of the agenda, which is actually addressing the density of the assets, right? We think it's very constructive, and it allows us to stay very optimistic about the developments of the industry in the upcoming years.

Yuri Fernandes
Yuri Fernandes
Analyst at JPMorgan

Super clear, Cristián and Patricia and Andrés. Thank you. I see, maybe you agree with me, but you have this reconstruction bill driving potentially better economic growth and better loan growth. Maybe I ask for Andrés, what should we pay attention for us to try to guess how the loan growth will accelerate? You also have the regulator, right, helping the banks to unlock capital and maybe grow faster. You have the double tailwinds, right? You have the macro, that I think is the most important one. Even on the sector specific, maybe after years of higher countercyclical buffer and more capital, we are entering a phase that easier capital allocations may drive more growth for Chilean banks, right? Just to follow up here, for Andrés maybe, what should we pay attention for us to see the growth reaccelerating?

Yuri Fernandes
Yuri Fernandes
Analyst at JPMorgan

Is, I don't know, employment? Is something on investments? What should be the leading indication for us to maybe get more confidence that the loan growth is coming back?

Andrés Sansone
Andrés Sansone
Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile

Yes. Our estimates suggest that the effect on the level of activity are significant. In the central scenario, the level of GDP will be around 6% higher by 2035. It's around almost half a point higher than in our baseline scenario for the next 10 years. We will probably think of growth closer to 3% in the upcoming years, and the main channel is through investment. That is also very positive for construction, employment, and on the bank side, for all the commercial lending.

Yuri Fernandes
Yuri Fernandes
Analyst at JPMorgan

Oh, perfect. Thank you very much.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

If I were to complement Yuri. We've seen most of the growth that has been happening this year concentrated on mining and energy sector. Consumption has been lagging behind a little. I think unemployment and also consumption metrics is something that will start improving as the economy is gaining traction.

Yuri Fernandes
Yuri Fernandes
Analyst at JPMorgan

Thank you very much, Cristián. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Daniel Aguilar from Credicorp Capital. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Daniel Aguilar
Analyst at Credicorp Capital

Hi, good morning, thank you for the presentation. I have a couple of questions. The first one, you were already talking about that a little bit, but I want to expand. It is about loan growth. I would like to understand what is the loan growth strategy for 2026 and 2027, considering the current economic scenario and also unemployment figures. What will be those drivers that should explain an acceleration in loan growth, already considering the approval of the Reconstruction Bill? What will be those products or segments in which you expect to gain market share? That will be my first.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

I think we lost Daniel.

Daniel Aguilar
Analyst at Credicorp Capital

Sorry. Can you hear me now?

Operator

Yeah.

Daniel Aguilar
Analyst at Credicorp Capital

The second question is regarding Getnet. Can you expand on the payment fees generated in the quarter? What are the competitive environment pressures that you mentioned in the report, and that explained the reduction in payment fees during the second quarter? Do you expect this to be a trend in the coming quarters to see the second quarter to be a normalized quarter of fees generated by Getnet? Thank you so much

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Sure. Thank you. What we are seeing for 2026 is that the loan growth is going to be a little more muted to what we expected at the beginning of the year. It has been showing up on the year-to-date figures. We are still confident that we are going to get into the mid-single digits, but in the lower part of the guidance, maybe the 4.5% area, not the 5.5% area. We're seeing better dynamics into the third quarter, especially in the commercial and consumer. Also mortgages, especially supported by the recent announcements that the government made yesterday. Into 2027, with a normalized inflation of 3% and a GDP expansion of 3%, we should be on the mid-to-high single digits as an industry. We expect to capture our fair share of that into next year. Where do we expect that to pick up?

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

I think the middle market corporate part, it's a part that has been lagging behind in terms of dynamics and also an increased confidence from the consumer should also impact positively on the consumer lending and the credit card portfolio. Regarding figures in Getnet, this is something that we discussed during the Chilean summer a lot with the market, when we announced the JV with PagoNxt. We were seeing a configuration of the industry with an increased competition happening, and that has been showing up a lot more. This has been forcing the industry, and we are, of course, a relevant player there, to reduce margins on the fees, especially in the more mass market and retail.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

At the same time, we are still confident that the figures will pick up a little in the second half of the year, as we are expecting some large corporates to start picking up in terms of usage of our platforms. All in all, this is something that was expected to happen. If you ask me, it happened even a little sooner to what we were expecting.

Daniel Aguilar
Analyst at Credicorp Capital

Perfect. Thank you so much. Very clear on both questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much.

Daniel Aguilar
Analyst at Credicorp Capital

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tito Labarta
Tito Labarta
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Hi. Thank you for the call and taking my question. My question is on asset quality and provisioning levels. A slight pickup in NPLs. The provisions did come down from the reversal of this specific corporate case, we saw provisions for consumer mortgage go up. The cost of risk guidance is a little bit higher. How are you thinking about the credit quality from here and the level of provisions going forward? Thank you.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you, Tito. All in all, we think that credit risk is going to remain stable for the rest of the year. We're seeing the dynamics happening between the 1.35% and the 1.4% area. That's the area where we're expecting to be by the year-end. We are currently delivering 1.38% for the first half of the year. That's the area that we think it's feasible to stay. In general terms, what we have been doing is improving the inflows of new lending and at the same time, addressing the part of the legacy portfolio that are not working that well. All in all, we think the NPL metrics should start to decelerate growth in the next quarters, we have seen that happening consistently for the last year. We're still not reaching the pivot moment, we expect to be there soon.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

At the same time, the new origination is showing a lot better performance metrics. We're quite confident that this is going to be something that will get addressed in the upcoming periods. All in all, we think it's going to be more of a stable news on this front, with marginal improvements into 2027.

Tito Labarta
Tito Labarta
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you very much.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thanks, Tito.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Neha Agarwala from HSBC. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Neha Agarwala
Neha Agarwala
Analyst at HSBC

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Just a more broader level question. If you see the loan penetration in Chile, it has gone down from the 90% ranges to 75% or so. What are the pockets that you see? Can we get back to the previous levels of loan penetration in the country? Which are the pockets where you see that opportunity in the next five years for loan growth to accelerate and for penetration levels to improve? How is Santander placed to benefit from those segments? Thank you.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Hola, Neha. Thank you for the question. Regarding loans, we are positive on most of the portfolio in terms of what we expect to happen in the next two to three years. After the pandemic, we saw that with the withdrawal of the Chilean pension fund, NANI, there was a relevant chunk of that money that was paid into prepayment, especially in the consumer lending portfolio. There is a relevant room to pick up there in terms of credit card, and also in installment loans. That is a place where with some improvement in unemployment and also better dynamics in terms of consumer confidence, we think that there is a room for the industry and for us, of course, linked to that, to pick up. The other part that has been quite muted in the last five years in terms of growth, has been the mortgage portfolio.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Because of the rate scenario and the increase in terms of the construction costs that have been showing up after the pandemic. The current announcement of the government of supporting an additional package of another. Actually, the total program will be 80,000 mortgages, but there is a little above 40,000 that have been executed in the last year, right? Actually, what the government is currently doing is more than doubling the amount of mortgage in terms of UF, because it has increased the total size of the UF unit to up to 6,000 from 4,000. It is also allowing the banks to go for another extra 40,000 units. That is the same size in terms of units of what has been executed so far.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

I think that is a very positive news in terms of helping the mortgage industry to get rid of the excess of inventory that is present. The initial estimations were for around 100,000 units. 40,000 units have already been executed by the industry. Actually, Santander has been a very relevant participant here, capturing about 17% of that total chunk of support. We expect to do our fair share in the upcoming years in this area, too. The other part that I think is very relevant is that, in terms of investments, in the last three to four years, the Chilean corporate sector has been very mild in terms of investing and growing in Chilean opportunities. As Andrés was mentioning before, we see that the talk of investment projects and capital deployed in the single next four years is quite sizable, and that is also an area.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

The SMEs, the middle market, and large corporate area is a place where we see growth happening and also cascading down into SMEs and consumer demand. That is something that we are also quite optimistic. To sum up, we expect to be delivering on the whole portfolio.

Neha Agarwala
Neha Agarwala
Analyst at HSBC

Perfect. If I can just ask another question. In the past, you've always talked about maybe going down market in this more mass market consumer segment with your digital initiatives to bring down the costs. What is the progress in that? Is there any discussion about the rate caps being eased, which could make it easier for you to go? Have you figured out a way to be more efficient, to offer more attractive rates to the mass market segment? Is that not something that you're looking at right now? Thank you so much.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

In terms of what's the current formal discussion on interest rate caps, there's no institution discussing this. We have heard some paper articles in the news, and there has been some vocal support of this discussion, there's no really a formal institution proposing this yet. It's too soon to tell. Of course, if the economics of the mass market lending changes, that change the return over risk-weighted assets of this discussion, and it will force not only us but the whole industry to review the penetration on the segment. This segment was actually banked out in terms of lending in the final part of 2014 when the reduction of caps happened. The industry reacted. Let me remind you something. They were the first one to react to this new environment, closing the consumer lending units.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

We were the first, all the industry followed us, closing down the consumer lending units. Now, if rates are on a different scenario, of course, that will make us review the economics of that business. So far, nothing formal has been happening on this discussion yet.

Neha Agarwala
Neha Agarwala
Analyst at HSBC

Super. Thank you so much for the detailed answers, and congratulations on the results.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you so much. Just a reminder, we are going to show a survey at your screen. Thank you for answering it. Our next question comes from Ludovic Casrouge from Autonomy Capital. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Seems like Ludovic disconnected.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Yeah.

Operator

Let's give away a monitor too. I'm not seeing any more questions, perhaps I can hand it back to the Banco Santander-Chile team for the closing remarks.

Patricia Pérez
Patricia Pérez
CFO at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you all very much for taking the time to participate in today's call. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

Cristián Vicuña
Cristián Vicuña
Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile

Thank you very much, everybody.

Operator

Thank you very much. This concludes the call for today. We are now closing all the lines. Thank you and have a nice day.

Analysts
    • Patricia Pérez
      CFO at Banco Santander-Chile
    • Andrés Sansone
      Chief Economist at Banco Santander-Chile
    • Cristián Vicuña
      Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Investor Relations at Banco Santander-Chile
    • Ernesto Gabilondo
      Analyst at Bank of America
    • Yuri Fernandes
      Analyst at JPMorgan
    • Daniel Aguilar
      Analyst at Credicorp Capital
    • Tito Labarta
      Analyst at Goldman Sachs
    • Neha Agarwala
      Analyst at HSBC