NYSE:ALB Albemarle Q4 2021 Earnings Results & Report $93.00 -1.85 (-1.95%) As of 11:10 AM Eastern This is a fair market value price provided by Massive. Learn more. Albemarle beat analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue in its Q4 2021 results, released February 16, 2022. The company reported EPS of $1.01 versus the $0.96 consensus estimate, while revenue of $894.20 million topped the $889.88 million estimate by $4.32 million. Revenue increased 1.7% year over year. Research:ProfileEarnings HistoryForecast Earnings Announcement Details QuarterQ4 2021Report DateFebruary 16, 2022TimeAfter Market ClosesConference Call DateFebruary 17, 2022Conference Call10:53 AM ET Albemarle EPS ResultsActual EPS$1.01Consensus EPS $0.96Beat/MissBeat by +$0.05One Year Ago EPS$1.17EPS Beat Rate7 of last 8 quartersAlbemarle Revenue ResultsActual Revenue$894.20 millionExpected Revenue$889.88 millionBeat/MissBeat by +$4.32 millionYoY Revenue Growth+1.70%Conference Call ResourcesConference Call AudioConference Call TranscriptPress Release (8-K)Annual Report (10-K)Earnings HistoryCompany ProfilePowered by Albemarle Q4 2021 Earnings Call TranscriptProvided by QuartrFebruary 17, 2022ShareShareShare This ReportLink copied to clipboard.Key Takeaways Albemarle outperformed in 2021, with net sales up 11% to $3.3 billion and Adjusted EBITDA growing 13% to $871 million, surpassing guidance. For 2022, Albemarle forecasts net sales of $4.2 – 4.5 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 – 1.3 billion, driven by strong performance across lithium, bromine, and catalysts. The company plans $1.3 – 1.5 billion in capital spending in 2022 to accelerate lithium expansions, including La Negra 34, Kemerton trains 1&2, the Marlboro JV and the Qingzhou acquisition. Albemarle raised its lithium demand outlook to ~1.5 million tons by 2025 (30% above prior estimates) and >3 million tons by 2030, citing robust EV sales growth. Emphasizing sustainability, Albemarle aims to reduce GHG emissions and water use, and launched new bromine-based products like Cetex Alero, targeting >10% bromine revenues by 2025. AI Generated. May Contain Errors.Conference Call Audio Live Call not available Earnings Conference CallAlbemarle Q4 202100:00 / 00:00Speed:1x1.25x1.5x2xTranscript SectionsPresentationParticipantsPresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:01Good day, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Albemarle Corporation Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star then one on your touchtone telephone. If anyone should require assistance during the conference, please press star then zero to reach an operator. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would like to turn the call over to Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin. Meredith BandyVP of Investor Relations and Sustainability at Albemarle Corporation00:00:35All right. Thanks, Michelle. Thank you all, and welcome to Albemarle's fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Our earnings were released after close of market yesterday, and you'll find our press release and earnings presentation posted on our website under the Investors section at albemarle.com. Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer. Our GBU presidents, Raphael Crawford, Netha Johnson, and Eric Norris are also available for Q&A. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including outlooks, guidance, expected company performance, and timing of expansion projects, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation. That same language applies to this call. Meredith BandyVP of Investor Relations and Sustainability at Albemarle Corporation00:01:26Please also note that some of the comments made today refer to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and the appendix of our earnings presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Kent. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:01:41Thanks, Meredith, and thank you all for joining us today. On today's call, I will highlight our quarterly results, recap our 2021 successes, and update you on our expansion plans. Scott will provide more details on our financial results, outlook, and capital allocation priorities. Finally, I'll walk you through our 2022 objectives. 2021 was a transformative year for Albemarle. Our strategic execution and ability to effectively manage the challenges of the global pandemic enabled us to capitalize on the strength of the lithium and bromine markets and generate results that exceeded expectations. For the year, excluding our Fine Chemistry Services business, which was sold in June of 2021, we increased net sales by 11% to $3.3 billion, which was in line with our previous guidance. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:02:38Adjusted EBITDA grew 13% in 2021 to $871 million, surpassing the upper end of our guidance. Looking ahead, our outlook for 2022 has improved based primarily on favorable market conditions for lithium and bromine. We expect adjusted EBITDA to grow between 35% and 55% versus 2021, excluding Fine Chemistry Services. To continue driving this growth, we are focused on quickly bringing capacity online with accelerated investments. La Negra III and IV is currently in commercial qualification, and we expect to start realizing first sales from this facility in the second quarter. In November, we achieved mechanical completion of the first train at Kemerton. The construction team is now dedicated to the second train, and we will be able to leverage our experience from train 1 to improve efficiencies and timeliness of this project. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:03:43We recently signed a non-binding letter agreement to explore the expansion of our MARBL joint venture with increased optionality and reduced risk. Now looking at slide 5. We introduced this slide early last year to lay out our 2021 objectives designed to support the four pillars of our strategy to grow profitably, to maximize productivity, to invest with discipline, and to advance sustainability. I would like to thank our teams for their extraordinary efforts. Virtually all the goals we set last year were met or exceeded despite challenges related to severe weather, supply chain issues, and the ongoing effects of the pandemic. The focus of our people around the world is what drove our strong year and underscores our ability to deliver on our commitments. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:04:36These accomplishments have also set the stage for us to take advantage of the growth opportunities ahead. Just as important as driving growth is an ongoing dedication to strong ESG values. I'm very proud of what you see on slide 6. Since I became CEO in 2020, one of my main priorities has been continued improvement in sustainability. I'm pleased to see that these efforts are increasingly being recognized externally, but it certainly isn't a new initiative for Albemarle. Sustainability is not just doing the right thing, but also doing it the right way. For example, the lithium market is expected to see significant demand growth in the coming years. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:05:22As a leader in lithium production, we expect to be an example and help define the standards of sustainability in this market as it goes through this fundamental shift. Now turning to slide 7 and more on the lithium market outlook. Based on our current market data, EV trends, and regular interactions with our customers, we are revising our lithium demand outlook upwards once again. We now expect 2025 lithium demand of approximately 1.5 million tons, up more than 30% from our previous estimates. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:05:59Beyond 2025, we anticipate continued growth, with lithium demand of more than 3 million tons by 2030. EV sales growth is accelerating as consumers become more energy conscious, governments incentivize clean energy, technology improves, and EVs approach pricing parity with internal combustion vehicles. In 2021, global EV production nearly doubled to over 6 million vehicles from 3 million in 2020. By the end of the decade, EVs are expected to account for close to 40% of automotive sales. When you look at last year's growth rate of nearly 50% and the auto industry's ambitions for a rapid transition to EVs, it's easy to see why demand expectations are so bullish. However, meeting this demand will be a challenge. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:06:54Turning to our wave two projects on slide 8. La Negra III and IV, which will add conversion capacity for our Chilean brine resource in the Salar de Atacama, is currently in the customer qualification process. We anticipate incremental volumes and revenue contribution from this project in the second quarter of this year. While there are significant changes taking place to the political landscape in Chile, we do not anticipate any material impacts to our business. We support the Chilean people's right of self-determination and applaud the peaceful leadership transition in that country. Our team has already begun building relationships with the incoming administration. As I mentioned earlier, Kemerton 1 reached mechanical completion late last year and is currently in the commissioning phase. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:07:46This puts us on track to begin first sales in the second half of this year. Kemerton 2 remains on track to reach mechanical completion by the end of this year. The OEMs and battery manufacturers have been investing heavily in growth, including commitments in North America and Europe, and the lithium industry must do the same. Turning to slide 9, we provide an overview of how Albemarle is investing to support downstream growth. Since our Investor Day, we have accelerated and further defined our wave three projects, including the announcement of three strategic investments in China. This wave of investments will provide Albemarle with approximately 200,000 tons of additional capacity. That's up from 150,000 tons of capacity originally planned for wave three. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:08:41We've also continued to progress our growth options for wave four. Based on discussions with our customers, we are analyzing options to restart our Kings Mountain lithium mine and the potential to build conversion assets in North America and Europe. Our vertical integration, access to high quality, low cost resources, years of experience bringing conversion capacity online, and strong balance sheet provide us with considerable advantages. I'm on slide 10 now. In China, we expect to close the acquisition of the Qinzhou conversion facility in the first half of this year. This transaction is progressing well, and we continue to work through the appropriate regulatory reviews. The Qinzhou plant is currently being commissioned, and we have begun tolling our spodumene to assist with that process. We continue to progress the two greenfield lithium conversion projects in Meishan and Zhangjiagang. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:09:43We have started site clearing at Meishan and expect to break ground at Zhangjiagang later this year. We expect mechanical completion of both projects by the end of 2024. The restart of one of three processing lines at the Wodgina Mine is going well, with first spodumene concentrate production now expected in the second quarter. At Greenbushes, Talison continues to ramp production from the CGP2 facility to meet design throughput and recovery rates. In addition, the tailings project at Talison is on track. Before I turn the call over to Scott, I'd like to highlight our bromine growth projects on slide 11. Our bromine business is investing in innovation and capital projects to take advantage of growth opportunities. We expect new products to make up more than 10% of annual bromine revenues by 2025, up from essentially a standing start. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:10:45The first of these products to launch is SAYTEX ALERO, our next-generation polymeric flame retardant. We first discussed SAYTEX ALERO at our Investor Day last year, and I'm excited to say that we have achieved first commercial sales in January and expect to scale production throughout the year. We've also invested in a resource expansion at the Smackover formation in Arkansas, and we continue to grow our conversion and derivative capacity in both Arkansas and Jordan. With that as an overview, I'll turn the call over to Scott to discuss recent results and our outlook. Operator00:11:40Scott? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:42Scott, you might be on mute. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:47Not doing anything. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:51Hello, can you hear me now? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:52Yeah, we hear you. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:54Okay. Sorry about that. I was on mute. Thanks again, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 12. For the fourth quarter, we generated net sales of $894 million, which is an increase of $15 million compared to the prior year quarter. This was driven by higher sales from lithium and bromine, partially offset by the loss of revenue from our Fine Chemistry Services business, which was sold in June 2021. Excluding FCS, we grew by 11%. The fourth quarter net loss attributable to Albemarle was $4 million, reflecting an increased cost estimate to construct our Kemerton lithium hydroxide plant due to anticipated cost overruns from the impact of pandemic-related issues on the supply chain and labor. Fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $1.01 was down 14% from the prior year. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:12:58The primary adjustment to EPS is the $13 add back of that Kemerton revision. Let's turn to slide 13 for more detail on adjusted EBITDA performance. Excluding FCS, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 12% from the prior year. Lithium results remained strong, driven by higher volumes as well as higher pricing. Bromine results were roughly flat year-over-year, reflecting strong performance in late 2020 and repeating it in 2021. Catalysts improved in the fourth quarter as refinery markets continued to rebound and the business saw benefits from one-time items. Our second half sales grew 13% from the first half of the year, following relatively flat growth since mid-2020. This acceleration of growth is expected to continue into 2022. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:14:00On slide 14, you can see we are expecting both volume and pricing growth in all three of our business units in 2022. We expect net sales of between $4.2 billion-$4.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.15 billion-$1.3 billion. This implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 27% and 29%. Adjusted diluted EPS and net cash from operations are also expected to improve year-over-year. We anticipate healthy growth in adjusted EBITDA in all four quarters this year, and we expect Q1 to be the strongest quarter for several reasons. All three GBUs are expected to benefit from lower cost inventory sold at prices that have been raised in anticipation of inflation. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:14:58In the first quarter, lithium also has the benefit of strong shipments from our Talison joint venture to our partner, as well as a one-time spodumene sale of material produced at Wodgina on initial startup in 2019. Finally, going forward, higher spodumene transfer pricing increases are gonna increase our cost of sales and only partially be offset by higher Talison joint venture income, which is included in our EBITDA after tax. This creates a tax-impacted EBITDA margin drag. As Kent mentioned, CapEx is expected to increase to the $1.3 billion-$1.5 billion range this year as we accelerate lithium investments to meet increased customer demand. The key actions to meet or exceed this guidance include, first, successful execution of our lithium project startups. Second, closing the acquisition in China. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:16:06Third, solid performance at our sold-out plants in lithium, bromine, and FCC catalysts. Fourth, continued strength in our end-use markets and favorable pricing environment. Lastly, solid procurement to combat inflation. Let's turn to slide 15 for more details by GBU. Lithium's full year 2022 EBITDA is expected to be up 65%-85%, a significant improvement from our previous outlook. We now expect volume growth to be up 20%-30% for the year with the new capacity coming online, as well as ongoing efficiency improvements. Average realized pricing is now expected to increase 40%-45% compared to 2021 due to strong market pricing as well as the expiration of pricing concessions originally agreed to in late 2019. In some cases, as these concessions rolled off, pricing reverted to legacy contracts with significantly higher variable pricing. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:17:22As we've been saying, we've also taken the opportunity to work with our strategic customers to renegotiate contracts to more variable rate structures. Catalysts EBITDA is expected to be up 5%-15%. This is below our previous outlook, primarily due to cost pressures related to high natural gas pricing in Europe and raw material inflation. Volumes are expected to grow across segments with overall refining markets improving. We continue to see volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels in late 2022 or 2023. FCC volumes are already there, but HPC volumes are lagging. Bromine EBITDA is expected to be up 5%-10%, slightly above our previous outlook based on strong flame retardant demand supported by macro trends such as digitalization and electrification. Volumes are expected to increase based on the expansions we began in 2021. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:18:34As discussed, higher pricing and ongoing cost and efficiency improvements are expected to offset higher freight and raw material costs. Now turning to slide 16, I'll provide some additional color on lithium volume growth. This slide shows the expected lithium production volume ramp from the new conversion facilities we expect to complete this year. We begin the year with a base load production of 88,000 metric tons in 2021, which includes Silver Peak, Kings Mountain, Xinyu, Chengdu, and La Negra I and II. You can see that this is virtually a 50-50 split of carbonate and hydroxide. As our wave 2 projects come online, output will begin to favor hydroxide. Generally speaking, we expect it to take about 2 years to ramp to full conversion capacity at a new plant, including approximately 6 months for commissioning and qualification. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:19:40Therefore, we expect to reach our full 200,000 tons of conversion production by early 2025. Before I turn it back to Kent, I'd like to update you on our capital allocation priorities, and I'll turn to slide 17 to do that. Our capital allocation priorities remain the same. Our primary focus is to invest in profitable growth opportunities, particularly for lithium and bromine. Strategic portfolio management and maintaining financial flexibility are important levers to support this growth. For example, we have divested non-core businesses like FCS and reallocated funds to organic and inorganic growth opportunities, like the expected acquisition of the Qinzhou plant. The strategic review of Catalysts is progressing well and is on track for us to make an announcement of the outcome in the first half of this year. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:20:42We'll also continue to evaluate bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate growth or bolster our portfolio of top-tier assets. As always, future dividends and share repurchases are subject to board approval. However, we expect to continue to support our dividend. Given the outsized growth opportunities we see in lithium, we don't anticipate share repurchases in the foreseeable future. With that, I'll turn it back to Kent. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:21:14Thanks, Scott. I'll end our prepared remarks on slide 18, outlining our 2022 objectives aligned with our long-term strategy. First, we will continue to grow profitably. This means completing our wave 2 expansions and progressing wave 3 expansions to grow lithium conversion capacity and volumes. We'll also focus on safety and efficiency starting up those facilities. Next, we will continue to maximize productivity. This is even more important in today's environment with rising costs for raw materials. We will leverage our operational discipline to offset inflation through manufacturing excellence, implementing lean principles and embracing smart technology to improve HSE, cost, reliability, and quality. Our procurement cost-saving initiatives and manufacturing excellence projects will be key to offsetting higher raw materials and freight costs as we work to achieve adjusted EBITDA margin of between 27% and 29%. We will invest with discipline. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:22:21As Scott discussed, portfolio management and maintaining our investment grade credit rating are both high priority for us and will continue to be a focus in 2022. Importantly, we plan to complete the Catalyst strategic review later this year, which will maximize value and set that business up for success while enabling us to focus on growth. Finally, we will advance sustainability. That means driving progress toward our goals for greenhouse gas emissions and freshwater use and setting additional sustainability targets. We'll also continue to work with our customers to improve the sustainability of the lithium supply chain by completing our mine site certifications, Scope 3 greenhouse gas assessments, and analyzing product life cycles. With that, I'd like to open the call for questions, and I'll turn it back to Michelle. Operator00:23:19As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star then one on your touch tone telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, press the pound key. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. Our first question comes from David Deckelbaum with Cowen. Your line is open. David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:23:41Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions today. I was curious if you could talk a little bit about the lithium pricing outlook. You raised your outlook to 40%-45% increase in 2022. When you think about that, and you talked about renegotiating your fixed price contracts, how do we think about your exposure to spot market fluctuations now as we head into 2023? I guess in conjunction with that, would you expect that you would see further pricing increases into 2023 based on your outlook today? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:24:20Morning, David. This is Eric Norris. Our pricing outlook, let me start first with the composition, what we see in 2022. We have, as Scott and Kent indicated in their prepared remarks, moved our pricing structures to be more variable. About upwards of close to 50% of our existing battery-grade contracts have a variable component to an index with a price and a ceiling. Those indices are not what you would see in China. Those are indices based upon global publicly available indices such as Benchmark Minerals, Fastmarkets, and the like. The remaining 10% of our business is spot in China, so that is gonna be exposed to what you see. The rest is largely, at this point, fixed. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:25:13Although as Scott indicated, as we continue to approach customers and they seek to add to their volumes through our expansions, we are in those discussions, asking them and considering moving to more variable with them as well. We have, you know, bottom line, increased our exposure to pricing upside, but I think you need to consider that the indices we're using largely are the global indices, not the China indices, where you see much higher price in the China market than you do globally. In terms of the outlook going forward, I mean, I would say that we expect, it really comes down to what China pricing does. It is the lead, sort of the tip of the spear. Where that goes, the indices follow globally. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:25:59Those global indices are about half, in some cases, of current China prices. There's probably room to go in those indices, but there's with prices where they are in China, one could only speculate where they would go and could they go down? We don't know. There's there'll always be some variability on that 10% of our business that's in China. David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:26:20Appreciate that, and thanks for the color there. My follow-up is just on the capital raise, a $200 million increase this year to the budget. It sounds like that's accelerating some of the conversion assets in China. Could you just give a little bit more color around that and when you expect to see some of the volumetric impact relative to your original outlook? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:26:47Okay. I'm not sure. Volumetric impact. You're talking about our wave three expansions when we see those volumes coming on? Is that- David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:26:55It sounds like the timing has now accelerated around wave three. So I guess per your, you know, if you were to look at it based on your original vision that you laid out at the investor day, you know, how much time are you pulling forward with that additional $200 million around the conversion assets? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:27:16We brought it forward because of the acquisition at Zhangjiagang. We were hoping to do an acquisition, hadn't planned, didn't have that nailed down at the time when we did the equity raise and the comments that we made then. That's brought it forward, and we've increased the capacity about 50,000 tons in that wave. The timeframe's been pulled a bit forward because we've confirmed that acquisition, and then we've increased that wave by 50,000 tons. As we said before, the two greenfields we think will be on by the end of 2024. David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:27:50All right. Thank you all. Operator00:27:55Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Bob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman Sachs00:28:02Thank you. Good morning. Kent or Eric, I was wondering if you could talk about your strategy on contracting to customers, you know, in a growing and very tight market. Is there an approach to not contract all your volume to ensure your customers can get deliverability? Do you wanna have, you know, as much as possible, you know, fixed volume obligations? How do you think about that? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:28:27Yes. I was just at a high level, and Eric can give you a little more detail on it, but I think we've talked about it. We want, we wanna have a portfolio across the range of those projects. We're not tying up all the volume on long-term fixed contracts, but we do wanna have that element of it, and it's becoming probably a bigger part. We're probably fighting to make sure that we keep the portfolio the way we envision it. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:28:54Yeah. I don't have much to add, Bob. You heard how I answered David's question just before you on the mix. We've seen an influence that to have up to a half on some sort of variable price that has some floors and ceilings, a bit of spot and then the rest fixed. We still, you know, strive to have, as we grow the business and add capacity, an amount that we can play in the spot markets, and that gives us access to flex with our contract customers as they grow as well. Strategy still remains to be a partner to our customers and to seek those partnerships for their long-term growth. That's becoming, in this market, a very important topic, that security of supply. Bob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman Sachs00:29:40Can I ask a follow-up? What was the reason and what are the ramifications of changing your MARBL agreement? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:29:51Yeah. I mean, we're in the middle of that, so I don't really wanna front run discussions that we're having with our joint venture partner. I mean, it's really about, it's expanding it to giving us more reach, and mitigating some of the risks that we see in the marketplace by sharing it with a partner. Bob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman Sachs00:30:15Gotcha. Thanks, Kent. Operator00:30:21Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Jeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan00:30:27Thanks very much. When you look at your lithium carbonate, your LCE, production from now to 2025, does your cost per ton change very much, and in what direction? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:30:47Well, Jeff, as Kent described, Eric, good morning, first off. As Scott described, wave three is hydroxide based and spodumene based in that regard. Those are at a higher cost of production than carbonate production out of Chile. Generally speaking, because of the higher cost to produce hydroxide versus carbonate out of brine, the average cost goes up slightly. That's a function of resource and product mix. We continue to drive productivity throughout the portfolio to ensure that we're operating at a low conversion cost to take advantage of the good resources we have. Jeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan00:31:31I think Scott said that the first quarter of 2022 would have the highest EBITDA total of the year. Why is that given that lithium production would be much greater in the second half? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:31:48Yeah. There are a couple of dynamics happening there. First is we've been aggressive around pricing given inflation coming through. In the first quarter, you know, we're selling out of inventory where that inflation has not actually hit our cost base yet. That's true across all of our businesses. That inflation catches up to us in the back half of the year, and we've already implemented pricing. There's a lull on that. Then it's really the same answer on lithium. That's across all the businesses, but particularly in lithium. Spodumene prices have gone up dramatically. In the first quarter, we're selling out of inventories which have 2021 costs. And in 2022, those cost increases come through the P&L. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:32:30That was the dynamic Scott was talking about where our EBITDA becomes tax affected because it's minority interest from JV income because even though we're protected from those spodumene prices going up, it shifts from being in our pure EBITDA to minority interest, which gets added to EBITDA but on an after-tax basis. Those are really the two drivers for why the first quarter is the highest EBITDA level. Jeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan00:32:55Great. Thank you so much. Operator00:33:00Our next question comes from PJ Juvekar with Citi. Your line is open. PJ JuvekarStock Analyst at Citi00:33:06Yes, good morning. How quickly do you see the Wodgina ramp up, and is that limited by available conversion capacity in Australia and China? Talking about conversion capacity, your potential North American, European conversion capacity is in wave four. You know, what does it take to move it to wave three? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:33:32I'm gonna take the second question first and then probably punt to Eric for the first. What we've defined, I mean, the waves are really just those are our definition of projects. Nothing else is gonna change. It's not gonna move North America from 4 to 3 because 3 is defined and we're well into execution on those projects right now. We're still defining exactly what we will do in wave 4. We look to accelerate those, but they'll still remain in wave 4. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:34:03PJ, on your first question about Wodgina, we are only with our joint venture partner ramping up the first train of Wodgina, which is 50,000 tons of 6% spodumene, a little over 30,000 tons on an LCE basis. We look at the Chinese growth and conversion capacity in hydroxide from wave three that Kent described as the outlet or excuse me, the consumer for that material. As a side note, you know, spodumene tends to come on pretty quickly. It's a different kind of plant operation than a conversion, chemical conversion plant, which tends to ramp over two years. A spodumene plant can come up within six months. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:34:44Yeah. Plus those trains are already built. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:34:46Plus the trains, yes. Fair point. Plus trains are built and they're just being restarted. We would expect by mid-year to see spodumene flowing from that, and put it into the assets that we talked about in wave three. The balance we'd consider looking at tolling for the balance. Then as we continue to progress wave three and other expansion activities, we'd look down the road. We've made no decisions yet on the second and third train at Wodgina, but those would be for down the road, giving us plenty of dry powder, so to speak, to support our growth, as we continue to build out conversion capacity. PJ JuvekarStock Analyst at Citi00:35:23Great. You guided to, you know, lithium volume growth of 20%-30%, which I would think is in line with where the industry is growing. You have so much new capacity coming online in 2022, first half and second half. Would I have thought that your volumes would grow faster than the industry? Any reason why it's not growing faster than the industry? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:35:47Well, certainly we'd like to continue to maintain our position in the industry and grow with the industry. You're right, with this growth guidance, we are doing that. Underneath that are the practical realities of capacity limitation. The guidance we've given, PJ, speaks to, you know, we give you dates of when we think these plants will come online. When we first have that first qualification sample, we have a six-month period before it can be qualified, and then we have about a two-year ramp to ramp that. When you back calculate that math, that's on our fixed base of 88,000 tons last year. That is the growth increment you get. So it happens to correspond to market growth, but it's going as fast as we can on our capacity expansion. PJ JuvekarStock Analyst at Citi00:36:30Understood. Thank you. Operator00:36:34Our next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Your line is open. Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:36:40Great. Thank you very much. Just two quick questions. Just the first would be, you know, for the Western OEMs, let's say all in on the EV front, just what's your assessment of their own perceptions just regarding some of the newer competitor supply additions and how that product will or, you know, potentially will not be accepted in the marketplace in the ultra, let's say near to intermediate term? Any color will be helpful. Thank you. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:37:05Yes. Good morning, Chris. By that, you're referring to Western OEM's view of new lithium competitors coming into the market who are- Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:37:12Correct Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:37:12...who are trying to bring capacity to market? Look, I mean, I think you'd have to ask their view on things. I will say this, security of supply is a very, very big concern in the market. I think that's why in a pure spot market like China, you see prices that are, you know, an order of magnitude higher than they were a year ago. That's it's folks trying to get supplied at any price. That is true certainly in China, given those prices, but that same sentiment is true here in the U.S., particularly as Western OEMs or in Europe as well underwrite big investments. They are looking for lithium wherever they can get it. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:37:54I think the offering that Albemarle brings, and as part of our dialogue with them, is we have the resources, we have the execution capability, and we're reliable in bringing on supply. We're an attractive partner for them in those dialogues, and we're in the middle of all those discussions now as we bring on this new capacity and look into the future to bring on future capacity, particularly as Kent referenced, as we look to localize capacity in North America and Europe. Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:38:23That's helpful. Just a quick follow-up. You know, what would just be your latest thought process, you know, on the demand front, you already hit on a few things, but just in terms of battery technologies, energy density, just any color on what you've seen in terms of new model launches and potentially advancing, you know, high nickel cathode chemistries, would be very helpful. Thank you. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:38:45On battery chemistry for electric vehicles, we still see over the 5- and 10-year view, so I'll put it another way, over the 2025 and 2030 view that we've characterized in our growth charts in the earnings deck. We still see nickel, high nickel being the key to higher range. We further see innovations on the anode side in pre-lithiation and new technologies that will further allow more energy density and cost effectiveness of those nickel chemistries with that parity to internal combustion engines and coming in within that 18- to 24-month period. That being said, it's pretty clear and our projections would show that LFP for lower energy density, for lower range vehicles, lower cost vehicles, is gonna remain a segment of this market, not only now, but through this 10-year period. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:39:42It's a double-digit % over that period of time, a low double-digit %, but a double-digit % of the market. Most of the growth will be hydroxide. Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:39:50Thank you very much. Operator00:39:55Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBank. Your line is open. Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:40:01Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I think, you know, as I look at your pricing guidance for Lithium segment, it was very strong. If I even assume some level of cost inflation that this cost number to get to your EBITDA and EPS guidance ends up being very high, you know, based on my model at least, maybe as high as 40% or more per ton. Is there anything else, you know, beyond the spodumene and Talison dynamics that you already described in terms of cost that we should keep in mind for 2022? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:40:42I mean, I think you have to appreciate we're bringing on new plants, and when we bring them on, they're not loaded, right? We're doing multiple facilities doing that. There's high fixed costs associated with that with lower volumes. But other than that, I mean, the pricing movements are pretty aggressive and pretty consistent. We've moved our portfolio quite a bit. We've been talking about that and we've more or less done that. We're more exposed to the market than we have been in the past. But I think you have to keep in mind of that fixed cost piece about bringing on new facilities that are not loaded. Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:41:19Okay. Appreciate it. I wanted to follow up on the pricing side. I guess, given the approximately 50% of your volume have these indices, would any of these indices reset during the year? Could you end up above the 45% sort of upper bound of your lithium guidance, price guidance? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:41:43Hi, it's Eric. I can answer that. They are all based on indices that continue to move. The recent movement has been upward in the past three months. Again, sort of this tip of the spear being China prices, which are significantly higher. Where the market goes long term, we don't know. If there is a downward sort of correction in China prices, that'll hit the China spot volumes we have. However, the spot these indices for the large part of our business, it's variable fixed ceiling floor, those are well below those spot prices. It's very hard to say. If the prices remain high, we can definitely be to the higher end of our range on price. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:42:35I think, I mean, I think part of your question was about are they fixed through the year? They aren't. That move of the market can move during the year. Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:42:43I understand. Thanks a lot. Operator00:42:48Our next question comes from Steve Richardson with Evercore. Your line is open. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:42:56Hi, good morning. I was wondering, again, just back on the capital piece. Scott, could you give us any more color just in terms of how much is cost inflation versus pull forward? I appreciate that you kind of addressed this a little bit earlier, but it is something that continues to come up in our conversations and would be helpful. Then on the cost piece, just on the previous question, appreciate that you're dealing with a lot of fixed costs in terms of some of these new project starts. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:43:27Could you maybe tease out, you know, at least in terms of your unit cost, how much is, you know, process related, you know, in terms of, you know, just general costs associated with the process versus, what you're seeing in terms of this mismatch between volumes and, you know, fixed costs versus variable? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:43:49Yeah. Let me take the first part of your question, Scott, and then I'll kick over to Scott to talk about the margin piece and the conversion cost. Looking at the change in our capital forecast, it's at least half accelerations. I mean, we have had additional costs. Executing projects in Australia, Western Australia during the pandemic has been a challenge for us, and we've had additional costs as well as extending the projects on that. We also see inflation impacting the projects that we're kicking off now that we didn't see a year ago. It's, you know, it's probably, I don't know how accurate we can be around that, but it's probably half acceleration and half additional costs associated with inflation and pandemic costs. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:44:37Scott, I'll kick to you for the margin question. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:44:41Yep. Hey, Steve. So as you look at the lithium margins, going into this year, the two factors are just plant startups and not being at full capacity. That's probably a $100 million drag in the year, somewhere in that range. Then the impact of the spodumene prices going up and changing the dynamic between cost of sales, so increasing our cost of sales, but also increasing our equity income on an after-tax basis, that's probably north of $200 million. Those are the two biggest kind of movers as you're looking at the lithium margin. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:45:25Great. Thanks. I appreciate the additional clarity. And one follow-up, if I may, just for Eric on the lithium outlook on the demand side. The 1.5 number is obviously huge relative to where the market had been, and I see the logic on the demand side. Can you address, you know, your view, like the industry's ability to hit this from a supply perspective? And at least how does this play out? Do we just end up seeing ever higher incentive price to bring marginal projects to bear? Or do we have a limiting factor here in terms of, you know, the supply side's ability to hit that number? And certainly the 3 million in 2030 is a huge number as well. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:46:10Look, I would say, Steve, that it's going to take. It's a hard run, right? It's going to take everybody, ourselves and our competition, being successful at hitting their milestones in order to provide that, to meet that supply. So it's an all-out effort to get there. I don't wanna sugarcoat it. I think it's the reason the industry is so tight is because there's a view it takes a while and it doesn't go as it's always expected. In terms of price, I don't have a crystal ball. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:46:47I never would have predicted a $65 carbonate price, so I don't know how to think about where that would go in the future. It does reflect that hard slog I just referred to, I think, that everybody's gotta step up and execute well in order to meet that demand. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:47:03Thank you very much. Operator00:47:08Our next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital. Your line is open. Joel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets00:47:13Hi, good morning, everyone. You know, some years ago, you guys had talked about kind of a 40% EBITDA margin for lithium as kind of being what I think you might get over the course of the cycle. We're now at a 34%-35% range over the last three years through much different pricing scenarios every year. You talk about now fully loaded plants and how that may affect margin. You're gonna be, of course, ramping on plants indefinitely or for a long time. Should we be thinking about this as the right cost base going forward, this margin as the right kind of base going forward for lithium? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:47:47I think what we said in the past, in the long term, is we stand by that. I think we've got, you know, one of the things you have to understand is as spodumene prices go up, that impacts our EBITDA margin because of the nature of the JV. EBITDA effectively becomes tax affected to some degree because of the product we purchased from Talison. That won't be different with MARBL going forward. That has an impact on the pure EBITDA margin, but it still flows through the P&L once you get fully to the bottom line. I think, to kind of answer your question, we still stand by the guidance that we've provided in the long term. We still think it's in that range. Joel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets00:48:35My next question is: It's great to have a 3 million ton demand forecast for lithium for 2030. Let's be honest, we're never gonna get there. There's no supply out there. You know, even if there's supply, we're not gonna get there in 8 years for 3 million tons, right? You've gotta have new resources. You've gotta have new technology, DLE, whatever. You have to have lots of assets that aren't producing now in lots of strange places, new feedstocks. We're never gonna get to 3 million tons. Would you agree with that? If that's the case, what's gonna happen? Does that mean the EV acceleration's gotta come down, oh, we have to change our plan, or do I have it wrong? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:49:13Eric said it before that it's a slog, but it's doable. I think the industry has to be aggressive and has to execute well. I think, you know, we're seeing some of that we're getting through some of those growing pains. We think we're probably as experienced as anyone at doing these large conversion facilities and bringing on new resources, you know. It's a combination of resource and conversion capacity. It is a stretch, but it does require some new technology, and operating in some places where historically, the lithium industry hasn't done that, but it's not impossible. Joel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets00:49:52Thank you. Operator00:49:56Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:50:02Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Kent, just wondering if you could walk us through the wave three total CapEx for us. You know, I think you originally cited it at $1.5 billion, and I think you mentioned half of the increase for 2022 was related to inflation. But it seemed like maybe some of that was transitory if COVID indeed calms down. How would you tell us to think about wave three now versus the original 1.5? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:50:29Well, it's. I mean, it has stretched a little bit 'cause we've accelerated and we've had inflation. You know, that inflation is if it goes away in three years, doesn't matter because we're building the projects in the next couple of years. There is some impact on that. It's, we've accelerated 'cause there's additional capacity associated with that, so that is, say, half of the difference, and the other half is inflationary. You gotta add that on. Even if it goes away, I mean, we're not gonna be necessarily in Western Australia, but there's still gonna be. We see our forecasting says inflation in the capital equipment that we're buying in the next year and two. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:51:10If we thought of something like it was gonna be like $1.8 billion-$2 billion now instead of $1.5 billion, is that good for a ballpark number? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:51:18Yeah, you know, Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:51:20I think- Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:51:20I don't wanna start estimating what the projects are gonna turn out to be, but it's up definitely from 1.5. Part of that is the acceleration, so I'm kind of focused on the inflation part. Overall, that's probably not a bad estimate. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:51:35Okay, thank you. Just on the Salar de Atacama technology projects, can you just talk to us about what milestones are left to hit on that so that you'll be confident that you'll be able to execute it? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:51:49We're just getting going into the real execution phase of that particular project. It's not as complicated a project as a conversion facility. I think we feel pretty good about executing on that. We've lost a little bit of the float we had in the schedule, but that's it. We're still on plan and on the schedule that we had, but we have lost a little bit of the contingency from a time standpoint that we originally had built in. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:52:20Okay. Very good. Thank you. I appreciate the answers. Operator00:52:26Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research. Your line is open. Kevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research Partners00:52:33Yes, good morning. A couple of questions on your catalyst business. First, I think you had announced some price increases in early January. Can you talk about the magnitude and the flow-through with regard to realization of those increases? Also related to catalysts, any update on your level of confidence with regard to the ongoing strategic review? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:53:01Okay. Raphael CrawfordPresident of Catalysts at Albemarle Corporation00:53:02Kevin, this is Raphael. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:53:02Oh, sorry, Raphael. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:53:04Let me touch on the strategic review and then let you talk about pricing. I mean, we're going through that process, and it's going well. The timing, we had said we think we'll have an answer by middle of the year. I don't really wanna front run it or comment too much on it beyond that. Raphael? Raphael CrawfordPresident of Catalysts at Albemarle Corporation00:53:23Yeah, sure. Thanks, Kent. Kevin, you know, as you saw, we announced a price increase in January. That's really to help offset the inflation that we've seen, starting in the second half of 2021 into this year, particularly around natural gas. That's building momentum, so I think we'll see north of $10 million worth of pricing in our forecast. Again, that's really to offset what we've seen on raw materials. As you know, Kevin, we are. We produce performance products, so we create a lot of value for our customers. We think our pricing is justified. It's mostly around FCC catalyst, where we're in a near sold-out position right now. All that being said, we've got a lot of confidence in what we shared as our long-term forecast for the business at Investor Day. Raphael CrawfordPresident of Catalysts at Albemarle Corporation00:54:16We think some of the raw material headwinds will be covered with price over time, and we'll be on track to deliver what we said. Kevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research Partners00:54:24Thank you for that. Second, Kent, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you've begun to build some relationships with the incoming administration in Chile. Can you talk through what has changed in that country, I suppose politically, but also, you know, there's an ongoing effort to rewrite the Constitution. What in your mind, you know, will be fixed or remain the same? What are you watching in terms of potential changes? How are you thinking about it in terms of capital allocation moving forward, beyond La Negra III in country versus, you know, alternatives you may have in Australia, China, U.S. or other countries? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:55:11There's a lot going on in Chile and new administration is not really in place. We're trying to build our relationship out in front of that with our local team there. There have been discussions going on about rewriting the Constitution and all of them, the mining royalties across multiple industries. Those discussions have been happening for the last six months, if not a year. There's been a lot of discussion. We're trying to build relationships with the new government, stay close to it. You know, we don't anticipate wholesale change in the direction that the government goes with respect to extractive industries, but we do think there'll be changes. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:55:51Most of that's gonna be, as you look forward, as opposed to on existing businesses, particularly around lithium. We don't see a wholesale change in the way that lithium is the existing business is done in Chile or our royalties that we pay. As an example, we think they're very progressive, probably the highest in the world on lithium for sure, and probably even in extractive industry. We think that that will hold and maybe become an example for some of the other resource based industries in Chile. We're pretty optimistic about our position in Chile. From a capital allocation standpoint, I mean, we have we're spending money now there on the Salar Yield project. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:56:38We've got La Negra III and IV project is really done, and we're in the process of ramping that up. We won't really need to make a capital allocation decision vis-Ã -vis Chile for a while. We'll have a much better view of what's happening in Chile and what the new administration, the direction that they're going and what the rules of the road are before we have to make a significant capital allocation decision there. Kevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research Partners00:57:05Perfect. Thank you very much. Operator00:57:12Our final question comes from Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets00:57:20Good morning. Thank you. Slightly more nuanced follow-up on the pricing and then also the security of supply concept, something that Eric mentioned a couple of times. Obviously it's an increasingly important theme, I think. This is really juxtaposed against these new demand scenarios that you put out this morning, the 1.5 and the 3 million ton demand scenarios by 2025 and 2030. At your Analyst Day in September, you talked about, you know, just how the industry cost curve would be steepening. Even your own portfolio, I would say, you're gonna experience that. As you ramp wave three, even pulling forward the 50,000 metric tons, you're talking about 200,000 metric tons. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets00:58:09That's only 20% of the increased industry demand from now to 2025, it looks like. In terms of security of supply, I would think these customers are just increasingly concerned about their ability to source lithium at reasonable prices. My question really is: Are they coming to you know, to a big and well-established and reliable integrated supplier like Albemarle and saying, like, you know, is the pendulum swinging back towards this concept of being willing to pay higher fixed costs in order to ensure that supply? I know you've gone from sort of, you know, those floor pricing contracts to more of a variable structure. I would think, given how acute this potential shortage is shaping up to be, that they'd be more motivated to do that. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets00:58:59Is that something you're considering? Just wondering, you know, kind of, it's kind of asking a couple other analysts in different ways, but it just seems like there's, you know, this is gonna be a tough scenario, and the only answer is gonna be for higher prices to induce more supply. Anyway, any more color around that would be appreciated. Thanks. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:59:21I'm gonna take the first shot at that, and Eric, you can fill in if I miss some of the key points. I guess the first thing is security of supply has always been a key part of our value proposition. In our view, it didn't get the attention that we thought it deserved in the past. We've always built on having multiple resources, different locations, diversification in our supply base, and the security of supply. Albemarle has a portfolio that is unlike anyone else's in the industry. That's from both a conversion, geopolitical, resource, cost base, brine, rock, all, you know, everything. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:00:00That said, it is getting more attention, and I think the OEMs and the battery manufacturers, but probably the OEMs more than anything else, are paying more attention to that. They're seeing that there may be a structural deficit, or at least they wanna make sure they align with the most reliable players. We're having conversations with different people. They're just conversations about different pricing structures. In the industry, we've shifted our, you know, this portfolio shift that we've done now was really something we started, you know, a couple of years ago, put it on hold when prices went so low because we didn't wanna renegotiate contracts at a trough. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:00:39We've been able to do that now, and that'll probably continue to evolve. It's the structure that we have now is probably not the one that lasts for the balance of the industry. I suspect there are changes in those structures to come, and a lot of it will be based on security of supply and quality, and the ability to bring on projects and deliver what you say you're gonna do. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets01:01:07If I could just have one follow-up, just on I don't know if, Eric, you wanna add to that, but also just on your decision to sell spodumene, 'cause I'd thought that you'd explained in the past that, you know, that would be for captive conversion to hydroxide, but now you've elected to, it sounds like, opportunistically sell some of the spodumene into the market. Thanks. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:01:34Yeah, I wouldn't read into that that's a change in our strategy. It was opportunistic, and it was product that we had sitting in inventory that was made several years ago and had just been sitting. We took the opportunity to sell that into the market 'cause it was just an opportunity, and we took advantage of it. It's just opportunistic. You shouldn't read into that we've changed our view on selling spodumene in the market. Operator01:02:04That's all the time we have scheduled for today's call. I'd like to turn the call back over to Kent Masters for closing remarks. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:02:11Okay. Thank you, Michelle. Thank you all for your participation on our call today. Our successes in 2021 have positioned us well to capitalize on the strength in the markets that we serve. This coming year is about execution. I'm confident in our team's ability to drive value for all of our stakeholders by accelerating the growth of our business in a sustainable way and to lead the industry by example. Thank you. Operator01:02:40This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.Read moreParticipantsExecutivesMeredith BandyVP of Investor Relations and SustainabilityKent MastersChairman and CEOScott TozierEVP and CFOEric NorrisPresident of LithiumRaphael CrawfordPresident of CatalystsAnalystsDavid DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at CowenBob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman SachsJeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorganPJ JuvekarStock Analyst at CitiChristopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at MizuhoAleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBankSteve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at EvercoreJoel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital MarketsVincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan StanleyKevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research PartnersChris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital MarketsPowered by Earnings DocumentsEarnings Release(8-K)Annual report(10-K) Albemarle Q4 2021 Earnings FAQ Did Albemarle beat earnings estimates for Q4 2021? Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) reported earnings of $1.01 per share for Q4 2021, beating the consensus estimate of $0.96. The report was announced on Wednesday, February 16, 2022. What was Albemarle's revenue for Q4 2021? Albemarle reported revenue of $894.20 million for Q4 2021, against a consensus estimate of $889.88 million. Where can I read Albemarle's Q4 2021 earnings call transcript? The full Albemarle Q4 2021 earnings conference call transcript is published on this page, including prepared remarks and the analyst Q&A session, along with the participants who spoke on the call. Albemarle Earnings HeadlinesAre Wall Street analysts predicting Albemarle stock will climb or sink?1 hour ago | msn.comWhat is Scotiabank's Estimate for Albemarle FY2026 Earnings?November 13 at 2:16 AM | americanbankingnews.comTrump’s EO to send this $5 stock ripping higher…?President Trump's December executive order declared space a national security and economic priority, fueling a race among SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others to build massive satellite constellations. One tiny firm holds the patented tech required to transmit satellite data to Earth at scale - and it reportedly powers SpaceX's most profitable division. Shares trade for under 5 dollars. Former JPMorgan wealth manager Ross Givens says it's the most uniquely positioned stock he's seen in 20 years of trading.November 13 at 1:00 AM | Traders Agency (Ad)Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) Stock Price Target Cut by UBS GroupNovember 11 at 1:25 AM | americanbankingnews.comAlbemarle (NYSE:ALB) Stock Price Target Cut by Morgan StanleyNovember 11 at 1:24 AM | americanbankingnews.comAlbemarle (NYSE:ALB) Stock Gets Price Target Boost from CitigroupNovember 11 at 1:24 AM | americanbankingnews.comSee More Albemarle Headlines Get Earnings Announcements in your inboxWant to stay updated on the latest earnings announcements and upcoming reports for companies like Albemarle? Sign up for Earnings360's daily newsletter to receive timely earnings updates on Albemarle and other key companies, straight to your email. Email Address About AlbemarleAlbemarle (NYSE:ALB) is a specialty chemicals company that produces lithium, bromine and refining catalysts. Its products serve industries including energy storage, transportation, electronics, petroleum refining and pharmaceuticals.The company supplies lithium compounds used in rechargeable batteries and other applications. It also makes bromine-based products for uses such as flame retardants and water treatment, along with catalysts used in refining petroleum.Albemarle traces its history to 1887 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. 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PresentationSkip to Participants Operator00:00:01Good day, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Albemarle Corporation Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star then one on your touchtone telephone. If anyone should require assistance during the conference, please press star then zero to reach an operator. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would like to turn the call over to Meredith Bandy, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin. Meredith BandyVP of Investor Relations and Sustainability at Albemarle Corporation00:00:35All right. Thanks, Michelle. Thank you all, and welcome to Albemarle's fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Our earnings were released after close of market yesterday, and you'll find our press release and earnings presentation posted on our website under the Investors section at albemarle.com. Joining me on the call today are Kent Masters, Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Tozier, Chief Financial Officer. Our GBU presidents, Raphael Crawford, Netha Johnson, and Eric Norris are also available for Q&A. As a reminder, some of the statements made during this call, including outlooks, guidance, expected company performance, and timing of expansion projects, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements contained in our press release and earnings presentation. That same language applies to this call. Meredith BandyVP of Investor Relations and Sustainability at Albemarle Corporation00:01:26Please also note that some of the comments made today refer to non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP financial measures can be found in our earnings release and the appendix of our earnings presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Kent. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:01:41Thanks, Meredith, and thank you all for joining us today. On today's call, I will highlight our quarterly results, recap our 2021 successes, and update you on our expansion plans. Scott will provide more details on our financial results, outlook, and capital allocation priorities. Finally, I'll walk you through our 2022 objectives. 2021 was a transformative year for Albemarle. Our strategic execution and ability to effectively manage the challenges of the global pandemic enabled us to capitalize on the strength of the lithium and bromine markets and generate results that exceeded expectations. For the year, excluding our Fine Chemistry Services business, which was sold in June of 2021, we increased net sales by 11% to $3.3 billion, which was in line with our previous guidance. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:02:38Adjusted EBITDA grew 13% in 2021 to $871 million, surpassing the upper end of our guidance. Looking ahead, our outlook for 2022 has improved based primarily on favorable market conditions for lithium and bromine. We expect adjusted EBITDA to grow between 35% and 55% versus 2021, excluding Fine Chemistry Services. To continue driving this growth, we are focused on quickly bringing capacity online with accelerated investments. La Negra III and IV is currently in commercial qualification, and we expect to start realizing first sales from this facility in the second quarter. In November, we achieved mechanical completion of the first train at Kemerton. The construction team is now dedicated to the second train, and we will be able to leverage our experience from train 1 to improve efficiencies and timeliness of this project. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:03:43We recently signed a non-binding letter agreement to explore the expansion of our MARBL joint venture with increased optionality and reduced risk. Now looking at slide 5. We introduced this slide early last year to lay out our 2021 objectives designed to support the four pillars of our strategy to grow profitably, to maximize productivity, to invest with discipline, and to advance sustainability. I would like to thank our teams for their extraordinary efforts. Virtually all the goals we set last year were met or exceeded despite challenges related to severe weather, supply chain issues, and the ongoing effects of the pandemic. The focus of our people around the world is what drove our strong year and underscores our ability to deliver on our commitments. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:04:36These accomplishments have also set the stage for us to take advantage of the growth opportunities ahead. Just as important as driving growth is an ongoing dedication to strong ESG values. I'm very proud of what you see on slide 6. Since I became CEO in 2020, one of my main priorities has been continued improvement in sustainability. I'm pleased to see that these efforts are increasingly being recognized externally, but it certainly isn't a new initiative for Albemarle. Sustainability is not just doing the right thing, but also doing it the right way. For example, the lithium market is expected to see significant demand growth in the coming years. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:05:22As a leader in lithium production, we expect to be an example and help define the standards of sustainability in this market as it goes through this fundamental shift. Now turning to slide 7 and more on the lithium market outlook. Based on our current market data, EV trends, and regular interactions with our customers, we are revising our lithium demand outlook upwards once again. We now expect 2025 lithium demand of approximately 1.5 million tons, up more than 30% from our previous estimates. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:05:59Beyond 2025, we anticipate continued growth, with lithium demand of more than 3 million tons by 2030. EV sales growth is accelerating as consumers become more energy conscious, governments incentivize clean energy, technology improves, and EVs approach pricing parity with internal combustion vehicles. In 2021, global EV production nearly doubled to over 6 million vehicles from 3 million in 2020. By the end of the decade, EVs are expected to account for close to 40% of automotive sales. When you look at last year's growth rate of nearly 50% and the auto industry's ambitions for a rapid transition to EVs, it's easy to see why demand expectations are so bullish. However, meeting this demand will be a challenge. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:06:54Turning to our wave two projects on slide 8. La Negra III and IV, which will add conversion capacity for our Chilean brine resource in the Salar de Atacama, is currently in the customer qualification process. We anticipate incremental volumes and revenue contribution from this project in the second quarter of this year. While there are significant changes taking place to the political landscape in Chile, we do not anticipate any material impacts to our business. We support the Chilean people's right of self-determination and applaud the peaceful leadership transition in that country. Our team has already begun building relationships with the incoming administration. As I mentioned earlier, Kemerton 1 reached mechanical completion late last year and is currently in the commissioning phase. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:07:46This puts us on track to begin first sales in the second half of this year. Kemerton 2 remains on track to reach mechanical completion by the end of this year. The OEMs and battery manufacturers have been investing heavily in growth, including commitments in North America and Europe, and the lithium industry must do the same. Turning to slide 9, we provide an overview of how Albemarle is investing to support downstream growth. Since our Investor Day, we have accelerated and further defined our wave three projects, including the announcement of three strategic investments in China. This wave of investments will provide Albemarle with approximately 200,000 tons of additional capacity. That's up from 150,000 tons of capacity originally planned for wave three. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:08:41We've also continued to progress our growth options for wave four. Based on discussions with our customers, we are analyzing options to restart our Kings Mountain lithium mine and the potential to build conversion assets in North America and Europe. Our vertical integration, access to high quality, low cost resources, years of experience bringing conversion capacity online, and strong balance sheet provide us with considerable advantages. I'm on slide 10 now. In China, we expect to close the acquisition of the Qinzhou conversion facility in the first half of this year. This transaction is progressing well, and we continue to work through the appropriate regulatory reviews. The Qinzhou plant is currently being commissioned, and we have begun tolling our spodumene to assist with that process. We continue to progress the two greenfield lithium conversion projects in Meishan and Zhangjiagang. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:09:43We have started site clearing at Meishan and expect to break ground at Zhangjiagang later this year. We expect mechanical completion of both projects by the end of 2024. The restart of one of three processing lines at the Wodgina Mine is going well, with first spodumene concentrate production now expected in the second quarter. At Greenbushes, Talison continues to ramp production from the CGP2 facility to meet design throughput and recovery rates. In addition, the tailings project at Talison is on track. Before I turn the call over to Scott, I'd like to highlight our bromine growth projects on slide 11. Our bromine business is investing in innovation and capital projects to take advantage of growth opportunities. We expect new products to make up more than 10% of annual bromine revenues by 2025, up from essentially a standing start. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:10:45The first of these products to launch is SAYTEX ALERO, our next-generation polymeric flame retardant. We first discussed SAYTEX ALERO at our Investor Day last year, and I'm excited to say that we have achieved first commercial sales in January and expect to scale production throughout the year. We've also invested in a resource expansion at the Smackover formation in Arkansas, and we continue to grow our conversion and derivative capacity in both Arkansas and Jordan. With that as an overview, I'll turn the call over to Scott to discuss recent results and our outlook. Operator00:11:40Scott? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:42Scott, you might be on mute. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:47Not doing anything. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:51Hello, can you hear me now? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:52Yeah, we hear you. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:11:54Okay. Sorry about that. I was on mute. Thanks again, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 12. For the fourth quarter, we generated net sales of $894 million, which is an increase of $15 million compared to the prior year quarter. This was driven by higher sales from lithium and bromine, partially offset by the loss of revenue from our Fine Chemistry Services business, which was sold in June 2021. Excluding FCS, we grew by 11%. The fourth quarter net loss attributable to Albemarle was $4 million, reflecting an increased cost estimate to construct our Kemerton lithium hydroxide plant due to anticipated cost overruns from the impact of pandemic-related issues on the supply chain and labor. Fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $1.01 was down 14% from the prior year. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:12:58The primary adjustment to EPS is the $13 add back of that Kemerton revision. Let's turn to slide 13 for more detail on adjusted EBITDA performance. Excluding FCS, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was up 12% from the prior year. Lithium results remained strong, driven by higher volumes as well as higher pricing. Bromine results were roughly flat year-over-year, reflecting strong performance in late 2020 and repeating it in 2021. Catalysts improved in the fourth quarter as refinery markets continued to rebound and the business saw benefits from one-time items. Our second half sales grew 13% from the first half of the year, following relatively flat growth since mid-2020. This acceleration of growth is expected to continue into 2022. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:14:00On slide 14, you can see we are expecting both volume and pricing growth in all three of our business units in 2022. We expect net sales of between $4.2 billion-$4.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.15 billion-$1.3 billion. This implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 27% and 29%. Adjusted diluted EPS and net cash from operations are also expected to improve year-over-year. We anticipate healthy growth in adjusted EBITDA in all four quarters this year, and we expect Q1 to be the strongest quarter for several reasons. All three GBUs are expected to benefit from lower cost inventory sold at prices that have been raised in anticipation of inflation. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:14:58In the first quarter, lithium also has the benefit of strong shipments from our Talison joint venture to our partner, as well as a one-time spodumene sale of material produced at Wodgina on initial startup in 2019. Finally, going forward, higher spodumene transfer pricing increases are gonna increase our cost of sales and only partially be offset by higher Talison joint venture income, which is included in our EBITDA after tax. This creates a tax-impacted EBITDA margin drag. As Kent mentioned, CapEx is expected to increase to the $1.3 billion-$1.5 billion range this year as we accelerate lithium investments to meet increased customer demand. The key actions to meet or exceed this guidance include, first, successful execution of our lithium project startups. Second, closing the acquisition in China. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:16:06Third, solid performance at our sold-out plants in lithium, bromine, and FCC catalysts. Fourth, continued strength in our end-use markets and favorable pricing environment. Lastly, solid procurement to combat inflation. Let's turn to slide 15 for more details by GBU. Lithium's full year 2022 EBITDA is expected to be up 65%-85%, a significant improvement from our previous outlook. We now expect volume growth to be up 20%-30% for the year with the new capacity coming online, as well as ongoing efficiency improvements. Average realized pricing is now expected to increase 40%-45% compared to 2021 due to strong market pricing as well as the expiration of pricing concessions originally agreed to in late 2019. In some cases, as these concessions rolled off, pricing reverted to legacy contracts with significantly higher variable pricing. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:17:22As we've been saying, we've also taken the opportunity to work with our strategic customers to renegotiate contracts to more variable rate structures. Catalysts EBITDA is expected to be up 5%-15%. This is below our previous outlook, primarily due to cost pressures related to high natural gas pricing in Europe and raw material inflation. Volumes are expected to grow across segments with overall refining markets improving. We continue to see volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels in late 2022 or 2023. FCC volumes are already there, but HPC volumes are lagging. Bromine EBITDA is expected to be up 5%-10%, slightly above our previous outlook based on strong flame retardant demand supported by macro trends such as digitalization and electrification. Volumes are expected to increase based on the expansions we began in 2021. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:18:34As discussed, higher pricing and ongoing cost and efficiency improvements are expected to offset higher freight and raw material costs. Now turning to slide 16, I'll provide some additional color on lithium volume growth. This slide shows the expected lithium production volume ramp from the new conversion facilities we expect to complete this year. We begin the year with a base load production of 88,000 metric tons in 2021, which includes Silver Peak, Kings Mountain, Xinyu, Chengdu, and La Negra I and II. You can see that this is virtually a 50-50 split of carbonate and hydroxide. As our wave 2 projects come online, output will begin to favor hydroxide. Generally speaking, we expect it to take about 2 years to ramp to full conversion capacity at a new plant, including approximately 6 months for commissioning and qualification. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:19:40Therefore, we expect to reach our full 200,000 tons of conversion production by early 2025. Before I turn it back to Kent, I'd like to update you on our capital allocation priorities, and I'll turn to slide 17 to do that. Our capital allocation priorities remain the same. Our primary focus is to invest in profitable growth opportunities, particularly for lithium and bromine. Strategic portfolio management and maintaining financial flexibility are important levers to support this growth. For example, we have divested non-core businesses like FCS and reallocated funds to organic and inorganic growth opportunities, like the expected acquisition of the Qinzhou plant. The strategic review of Catalysts is progressing well and is on track for us to make an announcement of the outcome in the first half of this year. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:20:42We'll also continue to evaluate bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate growth or bolster our portfolio of top-tier assets. As always, future dividends and share repurchases are subject to board approval. However, we expect to continue to support our dividend. Given the outsized growth opportunities we see in lithium, we don't anticipate share repurchases in the foreseeable future. With that, I'll turn it back to Kent. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:21:14Thanks, Scott. I'll end our prepared remarks on slide 18, outlining our 2022 objectives aligned with our long-term strategy. First, we will continue to grow profitably. This means completing our wave 2 expansions and progressing wave 3 expansions to grow lithium conversion capacity and volumes. We'll also focus on safety and efficiency starting up those facilities. Next, we will continue to maximize productivity. This is even more important in today's environment with rising costs for raw materials. We will leverage our operational discipline to offset inflation through manufacturing excellence, implementing lean principles and embracing smart technology to improve HSE, cost, reliability, and quality. Our procurement cost-saving initiatives and manufacturing excellence projects will be key to offsetting higher raw materials and freight costs as we work to achieve adjusted EBITDA margin of between 27% and 29%. We will invest with discipline. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:22:21As Scott discussed, portfolio management and maintaining our investment grade credit rating are both high priority for us and will continue to be a focus in 2022. Importantly, we plan to complete the Catalyst strategic review later this year, which will maximize value and set that business up for success while enabling us to focus on growth. Finally, we will advance sustainability. That means driving progress toward our goals for greenhouse gas emissions and freshwater use and setting additional sustainability targets. We'll also continue to work with our customers to improve the sustainability of the lithium supply chain by completing our mine site certifications, Scope 3 greenhouse gas assessments, and analyzing product life cycles. With that, I'd like to open the call for questions, and I'll turn it back to Michelle. Operator00:23:19As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star then one on your touch tone telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, press the pound key. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. Our first question comes from David Deckelbaum with Cowen. Your line is open. David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:23:41Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions today. I was curious if you could talk a little bit about the lithium pricing outlook. You raised your outlook to 40%-45% increase in 2022. When you think about that, and you talked about renegotiating your fixed price contracts, how do we think about your exposure to spot market fluctuations now as we head into 2023? I guess in conjunction with that, would you expect that you would see further pricing increases into 2023 based on your outlook today? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:24:20Morning, David. This is Eric Norris. Our pricing outlook, let me start first with the composition, what we see in 2022. We have, as Scott and Kent indicated in their prepared remarks, moved our pricing structures to be more variable. About upwards of close to 50% of our existing battery-grade contracts have a variable component to an index with a price and a ceiling. Those indices are not what you would see in China. Those are indices based upon global publicly available indices such as Benchmark Minerals, Fastmarkets, and the like. The remaining 10% of our business is spot in China, so that is gonna be exposed to what you see. The rest is largely, at this point, fixed. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:25:13Although as Scott indicated, as we continue to approach customers and they seek to add to their volumes through our expansions, we are in those discussions, asking them and considering moving to more variable with them as well. We have, you know, bottom line, increased our exposure to pricing upside, but I think you need to consider that the indices we're using largely are the global indices, not the China indices, where you see much higher price in the China market than you do globally. In terms of the outlook going forward, I mean, I would say that we expect, it really comes down to what China pricing does. It is the lead, sort of the tip of the spear. Where that goes, the indices follow globally. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:25:59Those global indices are about half, in some cases, of current China prices. There's probably room to go in those indices, but there's with prices where they are in China, one could only speculate where they would go and could they go down? We don't know. There's there'll always be some variability on that 10% of our business that's in China. David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:26:20Appreciate that, and thanks for the color there. My follow-up is just on the capital raise, a $200 million increase this year to the budget. It sounds like that's accelerating some of the conversion assets in China. Could you just give a little bit more color around that and when you expect to see some of the volumetric impact relative to your original outlook? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:26:47Okay. I'm not sure. Volumetric impact. You're talking about our wave three expansions when we see those volumes coming on? Is that- David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:26:55It sounds like the timing has now accelerated around wave three. So I guess per your, you know, if you were to look at it based on your original vision that you laid out at the investor day, you know, how much time are you pulling forward with that additional $200 million around the conversion assets? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:27:16We brought it forward because of the acquisition at Zhangjiagang. We were hoping to do an acquisition, hadn't planned, didn't have that nailed down at the time when we did the equity raise and the comments that we made then. That's brought it forward, and we've increased the capacity about 50,000 tons in that wave. The timeframe's been pulled a bit forward because we've confirmed that acquisition, and then we've increased that wave by 50,000 tons. As we said before, the two greenfields we think will be on by the end of 2024. David DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at Cowen00:27:50All right. Thank you all. Operator00:27:55Our next question comes from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Bob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman Sachs00:28:02Thank you. Good morning. Kent or Eric, I was wondering if you could talk about your strategy on contracting to customers, you know, in a growing and very tight market. Is there an approach to not contract all your volume to ensure your customers can get deliverability? Do you wanna have, you know, as much as possible, you know, fixed volume obligations? How do you think about that? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:28:27Yes. I was just at a high level, and Eric can give you a little more detail on it, but I think we've talked about it. We want, we wanna have a portfolio across the range of those projects. We're not tying up all the volume on long-term fixed contracts, but we do wanna have that element of it, and it's becoming probably a bigger part. We're probably fighting to make sure that we keep the portfolio the way we envision it. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:28:54Yeah. I don't have much to add, Bob. You heard how I answered David's question just before you on the mix. We've seen an influence that to have up to a half on some sort of variable price that has some floors and ceilings, a bit of spot and then the rest fixed. We still, you know, strive to have, as we grow the business and add capacity, an amount that we can play in the spot markets, and that gives us access to flex with our contract customers as they grow as well. Strategy still remains to be a partner to our customers and to seek those partnerships for their long-term growth. That's becoming, in this market, a very important topic, that security of supply. Bob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman Sachs00:29:40Can I ask a follow-up? What was the reason and what are the ramifications of changing your MARBL agreement? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:29:51Yeah. I mean, we're in the middle of that, so I don't really wanna front run discussions that we're having with our joint venture partner. I mean, it's really about, it's expanding it to giving us more reach, and mitigating some of the risks that we see in the marketplace by sharing it with a partner. Bob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman Sachs00:30:15Gotcha. Thanks, Kent. Operator00:30:21Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Jeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan00:30:27Thanks very much. When you look at your lithium carbonate, your LCE, production from now to 2025, does your cost per ton change very much, and in what direction? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:30:47Well, Jeff, as Kent described, Eric, good morning, first off. As Scott described, wave three is hydroxide based and spodumene based in that regard. Those are at a higher cost of production than carbonate production out of Chile. Generally speaking, because of the higher cost to produce hydroxide versus carbonate out of brine, the average cost goes up slightly. That's a function of resource and product mix. We continue to drive productivity throughout the portfolio to ensure that we're operating at a low conversion cost to take advantage of the good resources we have. Jeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan00:31:31I think Scott said that the first quarter of 2022 would have the highest EBITDA total of the year. Why is that given that lithium production would be much greater in the second half? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:31:48Yeah. There are a couple of dynamics happening there. First is we've been aggressive around pricing given inflation coming through. In the first quarter, you know, we're selling out of inventory where that inflation has not actually hit our cost base yet. That's true across all of our businesses. That inflation catches up to us in the back half of the year, and we've already implemented pricing. There's a lull on that. Then it's really the same answer on lithium. That's across all the businesses, but particularly in lithium. Spodumene prices have gone up dramatically. In the first quarter, we're selling out of inventories which have 2021 costs. And in 2022, those cost increases come through the P&L. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:32:30That was the dynamic Scott was talking about where our EBITDA becomes tax affected because it's minority interest from JV income because even though we're protected from those spodumene prices going up, it shifts from being in our pure EBITDA to minority interest, which gets added to EBITDA but on an after-tax basis. Those are really the two drivers for why the first quarter is the highest EBITDA level. Jeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan00:32:55Great. Thank you so much. Operator00:33:00Our next question comes from PJ Juvekar with Citi. Your line is open. PJ JuvekarStock Analyst at Citi00:33:06Yes, good morning. How quickly do you see the Wodgina ramp up, and is that limited by available conversion capacity in Australia and China? Talking about conversion capacity, your potential North American, European conversion capacity is in wave four. You know, what does it take to move it to wave three? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:33:32I'm gonna take the second question first and then probably punt to Eric for the first. What we've defined, I mean, the waves are really just those are our definition of projects. Nothing else is gonna change. It's not gonna move North America from 4 to 3 because 3 is defined and we're well into execution on those projects right now. We're still defining exactly what we will do in wave 4. We look to accelerate those, but they'll still remain in wave 4. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:34:03PJ, on your first question about Wodgina, we are only with our joint venture partner ramping up the first train of Wodgina, which is 50,000 tons of 6% spodumene, a little over 30,000 tons on an LCE basis. We look at the Chinese growth and conversion capacity in hydroxide from wave three that Kent described as the outlet or excuse me, the consumer for that material. As a side note, you know, spodumene tends to come on pretty quickly. It's a different kind of plant operation than a conversion, chemical conversion plant, which tends to ramp over two years. A spodumene plant can come up within six months. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:34:44Yeah. Plus those trains are already built. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:34:46Plus the trains, yes. Fair point. Plus trains are built and they're just being restarted. We would expect by mid-year to see spodumene flowing from that, and put it into the assets that we talked about in wave three. The balance we'd consider looking at tolling for the balance. Then as we continue to progress wave three and other expansion activities, we'd look down the road. We've made no decisions yet on the second and third train at Wodgina, but those would be for down the road, giving us plenty of dry powder, so to speak, to support our growth, as we continue to build out conversion capacity. PJ JuvekarStock Analyst at Citi00:35:23Great. You guided to, you know, lithium volume growth of 20%-30%, which I would think is in line with where the industry is growing. You have so much new capacity coming online in 2022, first half and second half. Would I have thought that your volumes would grow faster than the industry? Any reason why it's not growing faster than the industry? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:35:47Well, certainly we'd like to continue to maintain our position in the industry and grow with the industry. You're right, with this growth guidance, we are doing that. Underneath that are the practical realities of capacity limitation. The guidance we've given, PJ, speaks to, you know, we give you dates of when we think these plants will come online. When we first have that first qualification sample, we have a six-month period before it can be qualified, and then we have about a two-year ramp to ramp that. When you back calculate that math, that's on our fixed base of 88,000 tons last year. That is the growth increment you get. So it happens to correspond to market growth, but it's going as fast as we can on our capacity expansion. PJ JuvekarStock Analyst at Citi00:36:30Understood. Thank you. Operator00:36:34Our next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Your line is open. Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:36:40Great. Thank you very much. Just two quick questions. Just the first would be, you know, for the Western OEMs, let's say all in on the EV front, just what's your assessment of their own perceptions just regarding some of the newer competitor supply additions and how that product will or, you know, potentially will not be accepted in the marketplace in the ultra, let's say near to intermediate term? Any color will be helpful. Thank you. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:37:05Yes. Good morning, Chris. By that, you're referring to Western OEM's view of new lithium competitors coming into the market who are- Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:37:12Correct Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:37:12...who are trying to bring capacity to market? Look, I mean, I think you'd have to ask their view on things. I will say this, security of supply is a very, very big concern in the market. I think that's why in a pure spot market like China, you see prices that are, you know, an order of magnitude higher than they were a year ago. That's it's folks trying to get supplied at any price. That is true certainly in China, given those prices, but that same sentiment is true here in the U.S., particularly as Western OEMs or in Europe as well underwrite big investments. They are looking for lithium wherever they can get it. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:37:54I think the offering that Albemarle brings, and as part of our dialogue with them, is we have the resources, we have the execution capability, and we're reliable in bringing on supply. We're an attractive partner for them in those dialogues, and we're in the middle of all those discussions now as we bring on this new capacity and look into the future to bring on future capacity, particularly as Kent referenced, as we look to localize capacity in North America and Europe. Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:38:23That's helpful. Just a quick follow-up. You know, what would just be your latest thought process, you know, on the demand front, you already hit on a few things, but just in terms of battery technologies, energy density, just any color on what you've seen in terms of new model launches and potentially advancing, you know, high nickel cathode chemistries, would be very helpful. Thank you. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:38:45On battery chemistry for electric vehicles, we still see over the 5- and 10-year view, so I'll put it another way, over the 2025 and 2030 view that we've characterized in our growth charts in the earnings deck. We still see nickel, high nickel being the key to higher range. We further see innovations on the anode side in pre-lithiation and new technologies that will further allow more energy density and cost effectiveness of those nickel chemistries with that parity to internal combustion engines and coming in within that 18- to 24-month period. That being said, it's pretty clear and our projections would show that LFP for lower energy density, for lower range vehicles, lower cost vehicles, is gonna remain a segment of this market, not only now, but through this 10-year period. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:39:42It's a double-digit % over that period of time, a low double-digit %, but a double-digit % of the market. Most of the growth will be hydroxide. Christopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at Mizuho00:39:50Thank you very much. Operator00:39:55Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBank. Your line is open. Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:40:01Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I think, you know, as I look at your pricing guidance for Lithium segment, it was very strong. If I even assume some level of cost inflation that this cost number to get to your EBITDA and EPS guidance ends up being very high, you know, based on my model at least, maybe as high as 40% or more per ton. Is there anything else, you know, beyond the spodumene and Talison dynamics that you already described in terms of cost that we should keep in mind for 2022? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:40:42I mean, I think you have to appreciate we're bringing on new plants, and when we bring them on, they're not loaded, right? We're doing multiple facilities doing that. There's high fixed costs associated with that with lower volumes. But other than that, I mean, the pricing movements are pretty aggressive and pretty consistent. We've moved our portfolio quite a bit. We've been talking about that and we've more or less done that. We're more exposed to the market than we have been in the past. But I think you have to keep in mind of that fixed cost piece about bringing on new facilities that are not loaded. Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:41:19Okay. Appreciate it. I wanted to follow up on the pricing side. I guess, given the approximately 50% of your volume have these indices, would any of these indices reset during the year? Could you end up above the 45% sort of upper bound of your lithium guidance, price guidance? Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:41:43Hi, it's Eric. I can answer that. They are all based on indices that continue to move. The recent movement has been upward in the past three months. Again, sort of this tip of the spear being China prices, which are significantly higher. Where the market goes long term, we don't know. If there is a downward sort of correction in China prices, that'll hit the China spot volumes we have. However, the spot these indices for the large part of our business, it's variable fixed ceiling floor, those are well below those spot prices. It's very hard to say. If the prices remain high, we can definitely be to the higher end of our range on price. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:42:35I think, I mean, I think part of your question was about are they fixed through the year? They aren't. That move of the market can move during the year. Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:42:43I understand. Thanks a lot. Operator00:42:48Our next question comes from Steve Richardson with Evercore. Your line is open. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:42:56Hi, good morning. I was wondering, again, just back on the capital piece. Scott, could you give us any more color just in terms of how much is cost inflation versus pull forward? I appreciate that you kind of addressed this a little bit earlier, but it is something that continues to come up in our conversations and would be helpful. Then on the cost piece, just on the previous question, appreciate that you're dealing with a lot of fixed costs in terms of some of these new project starts. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:43:27Could you maybe tease out, you know, at least in terms of your unit cost, how much is, you know, process related, you know, in terms of, you know, just general costs associated with the process versus, what you're seeing in terms of this mismatch between volumes and, you know, fixed costs versus variable? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:43:49Yeah. Let me take the first part of your question, Scott, and then I'll kick over to Scott to talk about the margin piece and the conversion cost. Looking at the change in our capital forecast, it's at least half accelerations. I mean, we have had additional costs. Executing projects in Australia, Western Australia during the pandemic has been a challenge for us, and we've had additional costs as well as extending the projects on that. We also see inflation impacting the projects that we're kicking off now that we didn't see a year ago. It's, you know, it's probably, I don't know how accurate we can be around that, but it's probably half acceleration and half additional costs associated with inflation and pandemic costs. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:44:37Scott, I'll kick to you for the margin question. Scott TozierEVP and CFO at Albemarle Corporation00:44:41Yep. Hey, Steve. So as you look at the lithium margins, going into this year, the two factors are just plant startups and not being at full capacity. That's probably a $100 million drag in the year, somewhere in that range. Then the impact of the spodumene prices going up and changing the dynamic between cost of sales, so increasing our cost of sales, but also increasing our equity income on an after-tax basis, that's probably north of $200 million. Those are the two biggest kind of movers as you're looking at the lithium margin. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:45:25Great. Thanks. I appreciate the additional clarity. And one follow-up, if I may, just for Eric on the lithium outlook on the demand side. The 1.5 number is obviously huge relative to where the market had been, and I see the logic on the demand side. Can you address, you know, your view, like the industry's ability to hit this from a supply perspective? And at least how does this play out? Do we just end up seeing ever higher incentive price to bring marginal projects to bear? Or do we have a limiting factor here in terms of, you know, the supply side's ability to hit that number? And certainly the 3 million in 2030 is a huge number as well. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:46:10Look, I would say, Steve, that it's going to take. It's a hard run, right? It's going to take everybody, ourselves and our competition, being successful at hitting their milestones in order to provide that, to meet that supply. So it's an all-out effort to get there. I don't wanna sugarcoat it. I think it's the reason the industry is so tight is because there's a view it takes a while and it doesn't go as it's always expected. In terms of price, I don't have a crystal ball. Eric NorrisPresident of Lithium at Albemarle Corporation00:46:47I never would have predicted a $65 carbonate price, so I don't know how to think about where that would go in the future. It does reflect that hard slog I just referred to, I think, that everybody's gotta step up and execute well in order to meet that demand. Steve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at Evercore00:47:03Thank you very much. Operator00:47:08Our next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital. Your line is open. Joel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets00:47:13Hi, good morning, everyone. You know, some years ago, you guys had talked about kind of a 40% EBITDA margin for lithium as kind of being what I think you might get over the course of the cycle. We're now at a 34%-35% range over the last three years through much different pricing scenarios every year. You talk about now fully loaded plants and how that may affect margin. You're gonna be, of course, ramping on plants indefinitely or for a long time. Should we be thinking about this as the right cost base going forward, this margin as the right kind of base going forward for lithium? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:47:47I think what we said in the past, in the long term, is we stand by that. I think we've got, you know, one of the things you have to understand is as spodumene prices go up, that impacts our EBITDA margin because of the nature of the JV. EBITDA effectively becomes tax affected to some degree because of the product we purchased from Talison. That won't be different with MARBL going forward. That has an impact on the pure EBITDA margin, but it still flows through the P&L once you get fully to the bottom line. I think, to kind of answer your question, we still stand by the guidance that we've provided in the long term. We still think it's in that range. Joel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets00:48:35My next question is: It's great to have a 3 million ton demand forecast for lithium for 2030. Let's be honest, we're never gonna get there. There's no supply out there. You know, even if there's supply, we're not gonna get there in 8 years for 3 million tons, right? You've gotta have new resources. You've gotta have new technology, DLE, whatever. You have to have lots of assets that aren't producing now in lots of strange places, new feedstocks. We're never gonna get to 3 million tons. Would you agree with that? If that's the case, what's gonna happen? Does that mean the EV acceleration's gotta come down, oh, we have to change our plan, or do I have it wrong? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:49:13Eric said it before that it's a slog, but it's doable. I think the industry has to be aggressive and has to execute well. I think, you know, we're seeing some of that we're getting through some of those growing pains. We think we're probably as experienced as anyone at doing these large conversion facilities and bringing on new resources, you know. It's a combination of resource and conversion capacity. It is a stretch, but it does require some new technology, and operating in some places where historically, the lithium industry hasn't done that, but it's not impossible. Joel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets00:49:52Thank you. Operator00:49:56Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:50:02Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Kent, just wondering if you could walk us through the wave three total CapEx for us. You know, I think you originally cited it at $1.5 billion, and I think you mentioned half of the increase for 2022 was related to inflation. But it seemed like maybe some of that was transitory if COVID indeed calms down. How would you tell us to think about wave three now versus the original 1.5? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:50:29Well, it's. I mean, it has stretched a little bit 'cause we've accelerated and we've had inflation. You know, that inflation is if it goes away in three years, doesn't matter because we're building the projects in the next couple of years. There is some impact on that. It's, we've accelerated 'cause there's additional capacity associated with that, so that is, say, half of the difference, and the other half is inflationary. You gotta add that on. Even if it goes away, I mean, we're not gonna be necessarily in Western Australia, but there's still gonna be. We see our forecasting says inflation in the capital equipment that we're buying in the next year and two. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:51:10If we thought of something like it was gonna be like $1.8 billion-$2 billion now instead of $1.5 billion, is that good for a ballpark number? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:51:18Yeah, you know, Aleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBank00:51:20I think- Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:51:20I don't wanna start estimating what the projects are gonna turn out to be, but it's up definitely from 1.5. Part of that is the acceleration, so I'm kind of focused on the inflation part. Overall, that's probably not a bad estimate. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:51:35Okay, thank you. Just on the Salar de Atacama technology projects, can you just talk to us about what milestones are left to hit on that so that you'll be confident that you'll be able to execute it? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:51:49We're just getting going into the real execution phase of that particular project. It's not as complicated a project as a conversion facility. I think we feel pretty good about executing on that. We've lost a little bit of the float we had in the schedule, but that's it. We're still on plan and on the schedule that we had, but we have lost a little bit of the contingency from a time standpoint that we originally had built in. Vincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley00:52:20Okay. Very good. Thank you. I appreciate the answers. Operator00:52:26Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research. Your line is open. Kevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research Partners00:52:33Yes, good morning. A couple of questions on your catalyst business. First, I think you had announced some price increases in early January. Can you talk about the magnitude and the flow-through with regard to realization of those increases? Also related to catalysts, any update on your level of confidence with regard to the ongoing strategic review? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:53:01Okay. Raphael CrawfordPresident of Catalysts at Albemarle Corporation00:53:02Kevin, this is Raphael. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:53:02Oh, sorry, Raphael. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:53:04Let me touch on the strategic review and then let you talk about pricing. I mean, we're going through that process, and it's going well. The timing, we had said we think we'll have an answer by middle of the year. I don't really wanna front run it or comment too much on it beyond that. Raphael? Raphael CrawfordPresident of Catalysts at Albemarle Corporation00:53:23Yeah, sure. Thanks, Kent. Kevin, you know, as you saw, we announced a price increase in January. That's really to help offset the inflation that we've seen, starting in the second half of 2021 into this year, particularly around natural gas. That's building momentum, so I think we'll see north of $10 million worth of pricing in our forecast. Again, that's really to offset what we've seen on raw materials. As you know, Kevin, we are. We produce performance products, so we create a lot of value for our customers. We think our pricing is justified. It's mostly around FCC catalyst, where we're in a near sold-out position right now. All that being said, we've got a lot of confidence in what we shared as our long-term forecast for the business at Investor Day. Raphael CrawfordPresident of Catalysts at Albemarle Corporation00:54:16We think some of the raw material headwinds will be covered with price over time, and we'll be on track to deliver what we said. Kevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research Partners00:54:24Thank you for that. Second, Kent, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you've begun to build some relationships with the incoming administration in Chile. Can you talk through what has changed in that country, I suppose politically, but also, you know, there's an ongoing effort to rewrite the Constitution. What in your mind, you know, will be fixed or remain the same? What are you watching in terms of potential changes? How are you thinking about it in terms of capital allocation moving forward, beyond La Negra III in country versus, you know, alternatives you may have in Australia, China, U.S. or other countries? Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:55:11There's a lot going on in Chile and new administration is not really in place. We're trying to build our relationship out in front of that with our local team there. There have been discussions going on about rewriting the Constitution and all of them, the mining royalties across multiple industries. Those discussions have been happening for the last six months, if not a year. There's been a lot of discussion. We're trying to build relationships with the new government, stay close to it. You know, we don't anticipate wholesale change in the direction that the government goes with respect to extractive industries, but we do think there'll be changes. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:55:51Most of that's gonna be, as you look forward, as opposed to on existing businesses, particularly around lithium. We don't see a wholesale change in the way that lithium is the existing business is done in Chile or our royalties that we pay. As an example, we think they're very progressive, probably the highest in the world on lithium for sure, and probably even in extractive industry. We think that that will hold and maybe become an example for some of the other resource based industries in Chile. We're pretty optimistic about our position in Chile. From a capital allocation standpoint, I mean, we have we're spending money now there on the Salar Yield project. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:56:38We've got La Negra III and IV project is really done, and we're in the process of ramping that up. We won't really need to make a capital allocation decision vis-Ã -vis Chile for a while. We'll have a much better view of what's happening in Chile and what the new administration, the direction that they're going and what the rules of the road are before we have to make a significant capital allocation decision there. Kevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research Partners00:57:05Perfect. Thank you very much. Operator00:57:12Our final question comes from Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital Markets. Your line is open. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets00:57:20Good morning. Thank you. Slightly more nuanced follow-up on the pricing and then also the security of supply concept, something that Eric mentioned a couple of times. Obviously it's an increasingly important theme, I think. This is really juxtaposed against these new demand scenarios that you put out this morning, the 1.5 and the 3 million ton demand scenarios by 2025 and 2030. At your Analyst Day in September, you talked about, you know, just how the industry cost curve would be steepening. Even your own portfolio, I would say, you're gonna experience that. As you ramp wave three, even pulling forward the 50,000 metric tons, you're talking about 200,000 metric tons. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets00:58:09That's only 20% of the increased industry demand from now to 2025, it looks like. In terms of security of supply, I would think these customers are just increasingly concerned about their ability to source lithium at reasonable prices. My question really is: Are they coming to you know, to a big and well-established and reliable integrated supplier like Albemarle and saying, like, you know, is the pendulum swinging back towards this concept of being willing to pay higher fixed costs in order to ensure that supply? I know you've gone from sort of, you know, those floor pricing contracts to more of a variable structure. I would think, given how acute this potential shortage is shaping up to be, that they'd be more motivated to do that. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets00:58:59Is that something you're considering? Just wondering, you know, kind of, it's kind of asking a couple other analysts in different ways, but it just seems like there's, you know, this is gonna be a tough scenario, and the only answer is gonna be for higher prices to induce more supply. Anyway, any more color around that would be appreciated. Thanks. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation00:59:21I'm gonna take the first shot at that, and Eric, you can fill in if I miss some of the key points. I guess the first thing is security of supply has always been a key part of our value proposition. In our view, it didn't get the attention that we thought it deserved in the past. We've always built on having multiple resources, different locations, diversification in our supply base, and the security of supply. Albemarle has a portfolio that is unlike anyone else's in the industry. That's from both a conversion, geopolitical, resource, cost base, brine, rock, all, you know, everything. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:00:00That said, it is getting more attention, and I think the OEMs and the battery manufacturers, but probably the OEMs more than anything else, are paying more attention to that. They're seeing that there may be a structural deficit, or at least they wanna make sure they align with the most reliable players. We're having conversations with different people. They're just conversations about different pricing structures. In the industry, we've shifted our, you know, this portfolio shift that we've done now was really something we started, you know, a couple of years ago, put it on hold when prices went so low because we didn't wanna renegotiate contracts at a trough. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:00:39We've been able to do that now, and that'll probably continue to evolve. It's the structure that we have now is probably not the one that lasts for the balance of the industry. I suspect there are changes in those structures to come, and a lot of it will be based on security of supply and quality, and the ability to bring on projects and deliver what you say you're gonna do. Chris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital Markets01:01:07If I could just have one follow-up, just on I don't know if, Eric, you wanna add to that, but also just on your decision to sell spodumene, 'cause I'd thought that you'd explained in the past that, you know, that would be for captive conversion to hydroxide, but now you've elected to, it sounds like, opportunistically sell some of the spodumene into the market. Thanks. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:01:34Yeah, I wouldn't read into that that's a change in our strategy. It was opportunistic, and it was product that we had sitting in inventory that was made several years ago and had just been sitting. We took the opportunity to sell that into the market 'cause it was just an opportunity, and we took advantage of it. It's just opportunistic. You shouldn't read into that we've changed our view on selling spodumene in the market. Operator01:02:04That's all the time we have scheduled for today's call. I'd like to turn the call back over to Kent Masters for closing remarks. Kent MastersChairman and CEO at Albemarle Corporation01:02:11Okay. Thank you, Michelle. Thank you all for your participation on our call today. Our successes in 2021 have positioned us well to capitalize on the strength in the markets that we serve. This coming year is about execution. I'm confident in our team's ability to drive value for all of our stakeholders by accelerating the growth of our business in a sustainable way and to lead the industry by example. Thank you. Operator01:02:40This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.Read moreParticipantsExecutivesMeredith BandyVP of Investor Relations and SustainabilityKent MastersChairman and CEOScott TozierEVP and CFOEric NorrisPresident of LithiumRaphael CrawfordPresident of CatalystsAnalystsDavid DeckelbaumManaging Director of Energy and Materials Equity Research at CowenBob KoortHead of Industrials and Materials Research at Goldman SachsJeff ZekauskasManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at JPMorganPJ JuvekarStock Analyst at CitiChristopher ParkinsonManaging Director and Senior Industrials Equity Research Analyst at MizuhoAleksey YefremovManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at KeyBankSteve RichardsonSenior Managing Director of Global Energy at EvercoreJoel JacksonManaging Director and Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital MarketsVincent AndrewsManaging Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Morgan StanleyKevin McCarthyPartner at Vertical Research PartnersChris KapschManaging Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Loop Capital MarketsPowered by