Ford Motor FY 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Participants

Corporate Executives

• John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer
• Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Markets Group
• Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director, Investor Relations

Analysts

• John Murphy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Presentation

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us today.

I'm John Murphy from Bank of America. We are very happy to host a number of -- a few members of Ford's management team today. John Lawler, CFO; Kumar Galhotra, President of Americas and the International Markets Group; and Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations.

Ford, from our vantage point, is a company that is in transition in a very positive way. A lot of momentum towards the future around EVs, while leveraging the core of the business. And we do think kind of like the company has spoken about recently, there is tremendous opportunity in the core business around ICE and huge opportunity in the momentum that they're building around EVs. So I think it's a really exciting time to be listening to the management team of Ford, and their vision for the future. However, in the near term, we all need to focus on earnings. So we are going to do a decent amount of review on the earnings today and the near-term outlook and then get into the long-term potential.

So John, Kumar and Lynn, we really thank you for joining us today, and I really appreciate the time.

Questions and Answers

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

So maybe to kick off -- John, maybe to kick off, there's a lot of controversy around the stock post earnings. I would argue that the pressure on the stock is a huge opportunity for people that want to invest in the short and long-term in Ford, but obviously there's a lot of questions. So to just start off, can you just review the walk for -- the year-over-year walk for the $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion EBIT guidance for 2022 and kind of juxtapose that with the commentary around first quarter, where volumes will be down year-over-year? And I think one of the big questions and concerns we're hearing from folks is, Ford is traditionally a 60% first half earner, 40% second half earner. So the first half is going to be -- I mean, the first quarter, I should say, is going to be that light. How do you actually hit these numbers for 2022, which are pretty good numbers, $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. Thanks, John. Right. $11.5 billion to $12.5 billion adjusted EBIT, up 15% to 25% year-over-year. Now one of the main drivers of that is a continued strength in our top line. So we have volumes up 15 -- 10% to 15%. So you're seeing the leverage there rising of 10% to 15% of EBIT being up 15% to 25%. Now the top line is going to continue to be strong one, driven by those higher volumes, but we're also seeing on a year-over-year basis, continued favorable mix and then some positive pricing, net of production costs. So what we have there on the year-over-year about $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion of that top line improvement.

So when you look at that, you start to unpack that you might say well, pricing was up quite a bit in 2021, why do you feel pricing can be up again in 2022? Well, I think it comes to the strength of our product portfolio. As you know better than anybody in this industry, those with the strongest product lineup gains share and have pricing power. I would say that we have the strongest lineup we've had in years, probably in the 30 years since I've been with the company. So that's going to be a nice tailwind for us.

The other thing is when you look at the pricing that was taken in 2021, it was a combination of top line pricing and lower incentives. Now that top line pricing was taken more in the second half than the first half. So we get the benefit of a full year of that pricing on a year-over-year basis. So that's going to be a positive. So in essence, we could not raise our prices, it's weaker ago in this year prices is not being raised at $1 or incentives being lowered by $1, and we still have year-over-year pricing based on what we took last year. So there are some positives there on the top side.

Now we do know that we're going to continue to see the headwinds on commodities. So that's a headwind, and we said that's about $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Ford Credit is going to have another strong year, but it's going to be down year-over-year, and we said by about $1.5 billion. So those are the two largest headwinds.

Now we're going to continue to invest in our modernization, interim activity, in our IT systems, in our customer systems, but that's increase of about $1.5 billion of investment is largely offset by efficiency. So that's pretty much the walk. We've got the line improving. We've got some commodity headwinds. We have a lower Ford Credit. We're going to invest in our modernization, but we're broadly looking at offsetting those investments and that's the walk from 2021 to 2022 that allows us to drive our EBIT up at 15% to 25%. And I will note that at the higher end of that guidance, at 8% EBIT margin for the company and the 10% adjusted EBIT margin for North America, so that would be a year earlier than what we had talked about at Capital Markets Day last May.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

And John, when you think about the first quarter comments of volume being down year-over-year, do you -- I mean, do you think that that is -- that the comments around volumes right now necessarily EBIT right so mean we could see better EBIT performance than that down volume may indicate for the reasons you mentioned on pricing or maybe not, we'll see. But I mean, how do you fit that into sort of the traditional earnings pattern? And do you think it could be somewhat different in 2022 than it typically is?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. Absolutely, it will be different than the typical cadence of 60-40 about that we've seen in the past. So fourth quarter we had disruptions and those disruptions were not only driven by the rate inflow of chips, which has been an ongoing issue, but we also have shutdowns at key suppliers due to the COVID crisis due to Omicron. And that interrupted the rate inflow that hit us in the fourth quarter. That's continuing in the first quarter. Now the good news there is that those suppliers that were impacted that were shut down were up and running now. They just came up the last week or so at full force, and so it's going to take a while for that pipeline to refill, but that's behind us.

The other thing that I would say is as we go through the year, we should see and we do see, as we look at it, improvement in the rate inflow on chips in the second half relative to the first half than what we've seen in the past. Part of that is the fact that when the chip crisis started, many of the fabs went out and added capacity. That capacity is starting to come online in the second and the third quarter and so we should see that rate inflow improving the second half from a volume standpoint. So you're going to see the second half stronger than the first half. We have confidence in the volume being up 10% to 15%. We don't expect to see the same number of disruptions due to the COVID crisis, as we go through the year and then we see the chip prices easing a bit as those volumes come online from the fabs. So that's why we see we're confident in the 10% to 15%. That's why we see a stronger second half than first half. As we said on the call, first quarter is going to be down the most. On a sequential basis, it's going to be our lowest quarter for the year and down what you're going to see coming out of that I think is strength building throughout the year.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Okay. And the biggest -- I mean, the biggest positive in 2021 results was pricing, you just alluded to how you're going to focus on product. But you sort of, I wouldn't call it a skeptic sort of why is guys seem to say you be like what you just put up a huge pricing year, $9.7 billion last year and you're talking about increasing your volumes, but the reality is the results last year were very, very, very strong. So this increase in production, it wasn't -- I don't disagree with it, but you could say, hey, listen, why don't we do stay about almost the same exact thing you did last year, not increase volume that much, keep inventory incredibly tight and take advantage of that strength in pricing which drops to the bottom line. I mean how are you balancing this and how do you think about driving price going forward? I mean, is it, I mean, product matters, right, so it's not purely product, but I mean if that's the leading edge of it, but how much of this is keeping inventory tight and where do you think that inventory goes to maintain strong pricing?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. I'll start and then Kumar may want to comment as well and running North America and International Markets Group. We're going to be very, very thoughtful about this, John. One of the things we've been consistently saying is that we will not go back to the old model of high inventories in a push through system. But what we're seeing this year is the demand for our vehicles is very strong. There's still an imbalance this year between supply and demand, especially with the new product lineup we have. We're virtually sold out on all of our new products. We have an incredibly strong order bank. So we see demand being long to supply throughout the year. And with that, then we can be very disciplined about our incentives.

And as I said earlier, the top line pricing from 2021 will flow through on a full year basis into 2022, so that's why we have confidence that we can still have some top line improvement, but in volumes will be stronger because we can produce more and the demand is there, so we'll be able to fulfill that from there. And that gives us that tailwind to the top line that I was talking about. So we are confident in those numbers. We're confident in the strength of the lineup. And we're confident that product and this year we can manage this in a very thoughtful way and that we will deliver that top line improvement.

[Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Markets Group at Ford Motor]

Yeah. John, I would just a little bit of color in terms of product. You said that that's the leading edge of it. This is one of our strongest portfolios in decades. We've got the F-150, we launched last year has been fantastic. Bronco is doing awesome. Maverick is sold out, Mach-E is sold out. So all of these products, huge demand like John said, we expect that demand to continue, and we continue to constraints as quickly as possible to meet that demand. And if you look at our incentives are discipline will be, I was just looking at this morning, we have practically no incentives like very small incentive because of certain elements of leasing can get in there, but for the most part, after 50 Bronco no variable market, Maverick no variable market, Mach-E no to minimum. So that's just shows how -- the strength of the portfolio of that can command that kind of pricing.

That strength slowly increases, gets better this year because we'll have full year of production, we'll have full year of production with Bronco we didn't have last year, we'll have full year production for Maverick. We just, this morning, started shifting the bus transits, which we've got over 10,000 orders for, and we start production of F-150 Lightning. So you add up all that up on top of an already really strong portfolio, that's going to help us continue this momentum.

The other thing I would mention is one of the silver linings you mentioned in terms of inventory of the pandemic has been the adoption of both by us and the dealers and the customers digital tools like remote experiences, online reservations, we are selling a lot of our vehicles now to retail customers orders. Customers are willing to make. They order exactly what they want. So in December, for example, over a third of our sales were customer retail orders. That's very, very effective in multiple ways. Obviously, the customer gets what they want, but the huge advantage is lower inventories. So -- and in incentives and in marketing costs. So we won't need dozen of people sitting around on lots and that's just a tremendous advantage for us in terms of getting more efficient.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Kumar, just one follow-up to that. One of the beautiful things that occurred is because you were sort of inventory, some of your customers are essentially pushed into the used vehicle market, right, which is driven up pricing and recede. Some of those are entry level customers. So going forward, is there an opportunity to keep your mix relatively rich and higher priced and fulfill that entry level buyer with a three-year old vehicle because I mean, I just think about somebody buying a $75,000 F-150, the receipt might not be 50% right now, but if you think about historically 50%, are they better off buying a $30,000 to $35,000 three-year-old F-150 then buying a stripped-down version of the new one? Will they actually get a better product? The F-150 is an example you do this with any of your products and then that consumer is getting a better product, a better experience, you're not doing the stripped-down version, which is lower margin and you're also supporting the receipts at the same time. I mean how do you -- I mean and therefore it is not a great for an entry level vehicle. But I mean how do you think about that going forward?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. What a great question, John. Really, really important part of the business for our customers, for dealers and for us. So last year, February 2021, we launched fordblueadvantage.com, it's a very seamless intuitive way for our customers to research and buy used vehicles that are certified pre-owned. That had just launching that marketplace, so basically it's a marketplace. We manage it, dealers can put their used inventory on it, but that inventory must be certified to our standards. That increased our used vehicle sales by 26%. More importantly, it actually gave us the opportunity to provide all the leads to our dealers and they number of leads were provided by previously used vehicles increased 8 times, which is really fantastic. So -- and that's just -- that's less than 10 months, this is about a year old, and we expect to grow it.

And one of the really innovative things we're doing this month is that we're going to provide a 14-day 1,000 mile money back guarantee, that's going to be the most comprehensive money back guarantee for used vehicles at the industry, it serves our customers, it makes the buying process seamless for our customers and it really helps out the dealers, that's really exciting. One of the things we learned was when people are looking for certain types of vehicles because when used car buyers come into the marketplace, they actually have a pretty good idea of the kind of vehicle they want, kind of features that are must have, the kind of features they don't really -- they can't live without, and there weren't many places on the web where you could go and be that specific and Ford Blue Advantage does that. You can go in and say, I want to 4x4 or 4x2 or you can even go much finer on features and it's served you up exactly the kind of vehicle you're looking for, and the location you're looking for and the price range you're looking for. So I'm really excited about that and it is going to serve our customers who need that kind of an affordable price to come into the market.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Okay. I mean in the circular reference to new vehicle pricing or the support there is pretty powerful. I would think over time, is there any way that you've quantify that or what that means? Or is that still early in the data collection and understanding what that's going to mean?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

John, for used car pricing or new car pricing?

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

For new car pricing. I mean, just driving this more organized professional used car experience and this great product into consumers, I mean, does that create a pricing foundation ultimately for your new vehicle pricing? I would imagine, it has some positive impact, which is hard to maybe gauge and there it is.

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. Absolutely. The data is too new, but I fully expect to provide that foundation, so you combine those things of that foundational pricing, plus a great product portfolio, plus higher demand than supply, plus the new launches that are coming up. So I expect all those to continue this strong pricing environment. I think we've already said that we expected to be about $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion year-over-year in terms of volume mix and pricing, and it's all of those combination of all those factors that gets us there.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Got it, okay. The next question for me is very, very interesting comments in response to the first question I'd asked on the call. And basically you went on to say that ICE and EVs are distinctly different businesses with different products and different supply chains and different customers and potentially with different distribution. So I was just wondering if you guys can expand on that to some extent beyond what that means? I mean I would think -- I mean I generally agree with that, but I'd also think that there is a fair amount of know-how and design engineering and sourcing and logistics and manufacturing that are pretty applicable. But I mean what -- where we see going with that and how distinctly different are they from an operations standpoint, Kumar and then Lawler or John, on the financial side? I mean, is it really interesting view and refreshing to hear?

[Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Markets Group at Ford Motor]

John, you want me to go first from a -- maybe a PD perspective, operational perspective?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. Why don't you start there, and I'll jump in, Kumar.

[Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Markets Group at Ford Motor]

So from a product development perspective, it just requires a different engineering tab, but the obvious one is, is propulsion system, where we need a lot more cell chemistry experts than we do at an internal combustion engine calibration kinds of experts. So we have been and we continue to recruit new talent from outside the company that can accelerate new capabilities, both in software and services, battery technology, everything that is there. When I think at the highest level, the example of that is Doug Field, who joined us a few months ago.

Secondly what we're finding with the Mustang Mach-E is that a lot more work for both improving the product, as well as making it a better business case can be done after job one, because of the vehicle is connected over the air updates can have a huge advantage for the customer, we can keep renewing the vehicle. It also helps us take cost out, and we've been able to come up with very substantial opportunities for Mach-E since we've launched it.

The other thing is quality. Obviously, we do everything possible to shift the highest quality vehicle, but there are times when there is an interstate in the vehicle. We can both with F-150 Lightning and the F-150 ICE vehicle that we just launched is still connected that we can solve the lot of the quality issues with over-the-air updates. Now that may not seem like much, but they can have a very substantial impact on warranty, especially recalls. Can you imagine physically bringing in lots of vehicles to our dealerships to fixed recalls? But if that particular error can be fixed through over the air, that is a tremendous cost saving and simply, it's much more convenient for the customer and much more important financially for us.

So given all those factors to pull all this thing up, we need a very different kind of skill set to design goes vehicles a lot more in software, a lot more in battery and a lot more over the air kind of skills. So operationally, it is a very different business that internal commissions.

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

The only thing I would add to that, Kumar, is when you think about the go to market and the customer, we're finding with customers that we're attracting with our BEVs are 70% of them roughly are new to Ford. So the customers are different, what they expect from a go to market and an experience is different, which we are catering to, those differences that they want. And then on supply chain, as we're looking at the development process, we're also thinking through, because at the beginning of the BEV ramp, you're thinking about vertical integration differently on the BEVs than you are on the ICE and that's a different skill set as well, of all with the engineering that Kumar talked about. So it's all of those elements.

And the last thing I would say is that the approach to the business is different with the BEVs, the way we're approaching it than the way we've approached it with the ICE. And that's around complexity. We're about scale, a very, very low complexity approach, high scale, fast moving, the ability to adjust quickly, and I think that's going to allow us to build a more profitable BEV business as we go. And then as we learn that, the lower complexity configurations, we can bring those learnings back into ICE and that can help us simplify and improve the margins and improve the ICE business as well. So it's a different approach across many facets and that's what Jim was talking about, and we've been consistent since we launched Ford bus when Jim took over as CEO that we were thinking about the two businesses differently. So I think you're just starting to see more of that come to life and there's more examples that we can communicate as we're launching these BEV vehicles today.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

And with the relative success of the Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning, I mean, you're really -- I think you're seeing a huge upside surprise on the demand front in the Maverick as well, but some on the hybrid side. But when you think about 600,000 EV capacity by 2023 toward the end of 2023 run rate, is that enough? And then this 40% you're talking about by 2030, is that even that too low? I mean how are you gauging this? I mean, it just seems like the response from your consumers is very, very, very strong and much higher than we would have anticipated and I think you were anticipating. How can you flex this, if you need to? I guess is a better way to answer, quite asked it.

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. So I think the first thing we would say is that 600,000 units of EV capacity by 2023 is just a way point along the way, it's not where we plan on ending up. As you know, we've announced our Blue Oval City in Tennessee and the two battery plants that comes in line and in 2025, right, Kumar, that comes on in 2025, that will give us a million units of battery capacity. So 2023, think of it as a wait from to near-term hurdle. And we're going to continue right now breaking constraints, Kumar and his team, they are working with the battery suppliers that we have. We're working on our plants at the Rouge plant we're knocking down walls, we're expanding the battery electric capacity there. One of the things we're doing right now is we're stockpiling batteries and securing extra batteries so that we can meet that demand as we bring up the manufacturing capacity that we have.

So when you look at it, this year, the big move will be on Mach-E, we'll get close to somewhere around I think 100,000 units, and then we'll go from there and as we work on the Lightning, we launch it this year, we'll expand the capacity there by 2023 on the Lightning will be at about 150,000 units. And then I think that's a first mover advantage for us, we're going to learn a lot about those customers and the important thing there is we take that first mover advantage and we get to that 600,000 units, all the learnings that we're gaining from that first mover advantage today with our customers in the marketplace, with manufacturing, with working with the supply chain, with how we engineered the vehicles and the efficiencies we're finding post job one, all those learnings are going into our second generation of vehicles that start to come online with Blue Oval City in 2025. So there is a lot of opportunity here. There is a lot of improvement here, and it's exciting to see the team really engage and go after this in a very focused and energized way.

[Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director, Investor Relations at Ford Motor]

And John, I would just add. I know there's a lot of focus on North America, but obviously in Europe with the changes that we're making to Cologne, some of the sourcing agreements we have with VW and then also China. So there'll be more news unfolding around battery supply.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

That's very helpful. I mean, the things are moving so quickly here though. So in a very good way. I mean I would view it in a big way. Where do you think the tipping point is and what does it mean? I mean, and it's a little bit of an open ended question, but as you look at this, do you think you get to a point down the line, where 30%, 40% is of your sales are EV and then everybody who is looking at ICE, all the sense, listen, I really don't want an ICE vehicle anymore. I want an EV because that's the new tech and a direction I want to go in, because that's theoretically, the better product at that point. How do you handle that? Do you believe in that? Or is there always going to be use cases for the different powertrains that will allow for some ICE mix that makes sense over time? And what does it mean for residual values and how do you handle potential pressure on residual values for the consumer?

[Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Markets Group at Ford Motor]

John, maybe I start with the use case, and John, you can talk about the business side of it. For passenger vehicles, I think the tipping point will come sooner than later. But there will be use cases, where we will need a diesel cleanup powertrain, a great example is our F-250 heavy duties. As you know, we have a very strong presence in our fleet business that serves our customers everything from construction industry to what I mentioned as industry. The need for those use cases to have an internal combustion, either a large gas engine or a diesel engine will be there for, I believe, for quite some time. Same goes for our transit customers.

Again, different use cases, we just started shipping the E-Transit today. There is a segment that can use that and it meets all of their needs. But there are other segments within that group that will continue to need that. So I think it will transition at a different pace for our Ford Pro business versus our Ford regional business. John, to exactly predict the precise slope of what that change will be is difficult to say at the moment. That's why we're trying to preserve optionality on those certain vehicle lines because we would like to serve obviously both sides of the segment.

John Lawler?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

You've covered it, Kumar. It's going to be a transition over time. Well, I'd really like about our position is we have the strength in these iconic ICE brands, ICE vehicles and the strength we have in our commercial business. And then we add on top of the opportunities for BEVs, and I think we've gone for all the best of both worlds. And that we have a strong ICE business with really strong brands and leading in the segments. We're leveraging that as we've built our BEV business. We've got a first mover advantage. Demand for our initial BEVs has been very strong. And over time, I believe, that as we work this, we'll be able to work on improving ICE margins over time. I don't see that much of the narrative is that well your ICE business is just going to collapse and it's going to be a drag on the business. I think we can manage it where we can improve our ICE margins over time, as we manage that transition and leveraging the strength of the brands we have the nameplates we have and building our strong BEV business. So that's how I see it and that's how we're working to have this unfold over time, John.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Okay. And that kinds of leads to the next question. You indicated on the fourth quarter call that the 8% margin and total and 10% North America, so I think you very well might hit this year and there may be some upside to EV margins and ICE margins over time. You alluded to it again that would kind of lead you to believe that there would be upside to your corporate targets of that 8% to 10% over time. So I'm just curious, not to put exact numbers on it right now, how do you see that progressing? I mean is it very simply the products and the process? Or are there adjacencies or are there products that come along with the vehicles being connectivity subscriptions and services that we tried that higher? Are those kind of incremental stacked on top of what you said? Or I mean, how do you think about this progression in margins higher from here? I mean you could sit here and say, hey, listen, an ICE vehicle business, it's very good, could do 10% EBIT or operating margins and then you can look at Tesla and say listen, these guys are not that great operators to be perfectly honest and an EV business they're putting up high teens operating margins and you're better operators, why couldn't as you transition to EV at least for a long while put up high teens operating margins on the EV side and then drag up the ICE margins over time through various means? Just how do you think about that statement? Like, what does that mean and how do you get to higher and how much is higher, if you can just dimension it?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. It's going to be part for me to mention it right now, John, with a number. So I'm not going to put a number out there at this point, but I can talk about how we're thinking about it and the power in the leverage that we believe we have to pull. And it's a combination of both of the key things you talk about. One, there is one of the most exciting things for me about this business right now. And if you were to ask me five years ago that we would have this opportunity to expand our business and the way we do now with connectivity in the services and experiences to get higher margin, additional revenue on top of the hardware that we sell, it would have been hard for me to get my head around that 5 to 10 years ago. But I see the power in that. Now we're just getting started. So I think a big part of driving margins over time will be the connected vehicles, the services and experiences, the cars continuously getting better over time.

And you'll see that with the BEVs, of course, but you're also going to see that on our ICE vehicles. We have a million vehicles in the field today that are OTI capable, and we're continuing to improve our, what we call, our network architecture on the vehicle, so that there is more capability that we can provide over time. So you're going to see top line growth there and you're going to see growth there in the services and experiences that have a higher margin, typical SaaS type business.

Now let's step back into the other areas of the business, where I think there's opportunities. One of the things we're learning as we're looking at the BEV business and thinking about that as a mass scaling, low complexity business, there is a lot of goodness in there throughout the whole industrial system, a whole development process, what kind of cost structure we'd have from distribution et cetera, et cetera. And we're starting to see that. We're taking those learnings and we're starting to apply that to our ICE business as well, and there is opportunity there.

One of the things we looked at this year is, Kumar said, well, if a lower complexity is being received better by the consumer and it's easier from going online, in ordering your vehicle and it's a better experience, can we reduce the order complexity on our ICE vehicles? So he and his team had often looked at that, and starting this year, on appointing model year vehicles, our dealers now have, our customers as well and online, they have a 7%, 8% reduction on order book configurations in our ICE business across most of our vehicles, that's substantial. And you can take that, now, that 7%, 8% reduction in complexity and you start to bring that back through the whole system, you can see the power of that. You engineering less parts, your engineering less configurations, your testing less vehicles, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So there is in a tremendous amount of efficiency that will eventually work through our development process and our cost structure.

The other thing we've talked about already is lower stock and Kumar talked about having a third of our orders from customers online. We learn what turns faster, we learn what customers want, goes back to reducing complexity in order book configurations and that of course not having that stock in the field is an efficiency that we're going to start to see more of and continue through what we've experienced so far on that, the goodness of that. And I think that the other thing you'll see as we move forward with the ICE business is we'll be able to think about our investments differently, especially with the connected vehicles, and we'll be able to offer our consumers a newer experience with the vehicle without necessarily changing the sheet metal or having a complete freshening, where we would have invested. So we will be able to take our ICE business and really manage that as those vehicles start to unwind as a larger percentage of the industry as they start to decline, invest less, keep the product structure through our digital fresh links and through digital experiences and then generate more cash flow and higher margins as we move forward, not saying we're going to stop investing in our ICE business, but we can invest in less for say, a smarter way.

And then the other area that we're thinking through with our ICE business that has potential opportunity is the penetration of our service business. If we have a lower complexity product lineup, if we have a simpler product lineup, how can we leverage that to generate more service parts flow-through from a standpoint of capturing post warranty business? So improving our loyalty, especially with our ongoing customer relationship with those customers, where we're interacting with them through our connected services, can we increase our post warranty loyalty rate and, therefore, keep them in our ecosystem longer and grow our top line revenue through a total process of a lifetime revenue? So that's what we're doing on the ICE business and then of course, we've talked about what we're going to do on the BEV businesses, the scaling, we're going to look at, John, what we can do around, as Kumar said, leveraging the connectivity of the vehicle to lower not only warranty cost, but also saving in our assembly process and then of course distribution.

So I think there's a lot of different levers that we can pull. We're working through that. There's a lot of learnings coming out of the BEV that we can apply to the ICE, and we have this top line growth opportunity through connectivity. So I think those are the three things that we're going to lean into that we have given us confidence over time. We believe that we can continuously improve the margins in this business.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Okay. Just one follow-up there on connectivity, because I think it gets often lost in the shuffle with EVs and autonomous and in some ways into simpler technology, once it's in the vehicle, the connectivity. I mean there's complications in serious if I got with the connectivity to the consumer, right, the simple connectivity through the asset itself as opposed to trying to connect to the consumer in other fashion. So you can get to the consumer and sort of chasing them down in other ways you can communicate to them via the asset, which is like what happens with iPhone. So if you think about that simple connectivity, right, there's a lot of complexity around this, so I don't need to use that in a pejorative. But I mean it's simple, can you get to the second, third and fourth owner of the vehicle to increase services, right? There is -- we all know that there is giant -- you participate in this typically iceberg and is this giant iceberg underneath the water, so much money that's made after the point of sale and beyond the first 3 to 5 years that you participate in. I mean are there efforts to keep that simple connectivity going with that asset to reach directly to those consumers? And then just participate in that huge iceberg, I mean which is it's going to take time, right, for that connectivity to bleed into the fleet, but the economics of that could be double or triple in very simple terms without creating all new product, you just on service and used car transactions versus what you participate in now. I mean how -- I mean, I don't know I'm giving you what I think the opportunity is, but how do you think about that? It's huge and it's not some willy-nilly fancy I'm going to come up with new subscriptions, the new stuff, and I'm going to make all this more money on it's like, no it exists, you just got to go after it. I get it.

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. Kumar, you want to grab this one?

[Kumar Galhotra, President, Americas & International Markets Group at Ford Motor]

Yeah. Let me share a couple of examples, John. I will use one for ICE vehicles that we can use connectivity to grow business, and I'll use one for our Ford Pro business for example. So we have now installed in several of our vehicles oil life sensors. So oil for internal combustion engines, oil changes are very big. Well, they are necessary for the engine under substantial business for us and our dealers. Now, what if you have a Ford Passat and the vehicle is equipped with oil life sensor, it automatically informs the customer that they should schedule an oil change appointment within next two weeks or three weeks, and we can set that up on how the customers want to hear about it.

Pretty soon, you can imagine, we can then connect that to a reservation system, where we make it totally simple, extremely seamless, where not only tells you that you have an oil change coming up, it can also suggest kind of like open table for restaurants, it can suggest there is an open spot added service bay at your favorite dealer at 3:00 PM or 4:00 PM. So you can keep moving that experience forward to see how you can make it really, really sticky. So first couple of steps done, like the sensor is there, it's talking to the Ford Passat, it's letting the customer know, and we're building on the other building blocks. And I think there is tremendous opportunity there. That's just one example. Slow tire leaks are a big issue for tire wear another issues for our customers that sensor is coming. We can tell the customer there is a slow leak in your left front tire and that's something you should take care.

On the Pro side, it doesn't have to be an electric vehicle, like the E-Transit that were just launched today, but even in ICE side, where connected vehicles were offering great telematics services for our customers. If you are a small business owner, as well as a fleet of 10 vehicles or if you're a large business owner with a fleet of 100, it makes your job of managing that fleet really, really much easier, I would say, and much more efficient for their business. You can monitor driver behavior. You can have information on geofencing of the vehicles. One of the things we found out in visiting all of these fleets was how much resource they put in and just managing the keys to each vehicle. If you've got 20 drivers, who has got which key, generally there is a guy with a little board with us, well, we can change that with phone as a key and provide digital keys to that customer.

In terms of a battery electric vehicle, we're providing charging solutions where if your driver is going to take your vehicle home, and we can provide a charge box that not only provides the most efficient charging rates for their vehicle, but it can actually tell the driver how much electricity was used for the vehicle versus how much on the house, so that the driver then has the ability to expense the charging part. So it's all about making all those using the connectivity to making all those experience seamless and making their business more efficient. And like you said, we see just tremendous opportunity, both on the ICE side and the BEV side to use connectivity.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Okay. And then just a last question, I know we just got a few minutes left here. I'd be remiss if we didn't ask and we got a couple of questions on the balance sheet. I mean the balance sheet is in fantastic shape at the moment. I mean you made your comments about the Rivian stakes. So we'll leave that -- definitely that alone. But on the dividend, I mean how do you guys think about the dividend over time and the potential to slowly grow it or leave it as is for now you think you've opened the door enough with the dividend? Or I mean how does the dividend decision progress from here? How do you make a decision on how that changes or stays the same?

[John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer at Ford Motor]

Yeah. So we are very pleased with where we're at from a balance sheet standpoint, John, right. With $6 billion of cash and $52 billion of liquidity, we have our Rivian stake that's in there as a cash marketable security and so we have the resources we need to continue investing in the business. And that's really strong as we are on our endeavor to grow our BEV business and work at our ICE business and invest in both going forward. We did bring the dividend back at $0.10 a share. And we think about that as a total shareholder return. We look at total shareholder returns. And we have a lot of -- we have a large retail holding within our stock and so that dividend is important to those retail customers, those retail shareholders.

So we're going to continue to look at the cash generation of the business. We're going to continue to look at the strength of the balance sheet. We reduced our debt significantly last year and saw that we lowered the effective rate of interest for our debt by 200 basis points. So as the balance sheet strengthened, as we generate cash in the business, as we continue to grow the business, we'll think about those elements as we think about the dividend in the light of the total shareholder return that we can provide our shareholders, which is important. And we see it is not only stock appreciation, but also dividends. And we'll think about that very thoughtfully based on the performance of the business, John, as we move forward. So nothing else to add or nothing to announce relative to that today, but it's something that we continuously look at in the light of total shareholder returns.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Okay. With that we're getting to close to the top of the hour. So John, Kumar and Lynn, we really appreciate the time. As always, thank you so much for the follow-up today. We look forward to see you in person and hopefully doing some of these events in person sometime soon. We miss you guys. Thanks so much.

[Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director, Investor Relations at Ford Motor]

Thank you so much, John.

[John Murphy, Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch]

Bye-bye.