NiSource Q1 2022 Earnings Report

NiSource EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.75
• Consensus EPS: $0.76
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.77

NiSource Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.87 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.69 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$182.10 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

NiSource Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2022
• Date: 5/4/2022
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2022
• Conference Call Time: 5:24AM ET

NiSource (NYSE:NI) Inc. (NYSE: NI) is a regulated utility company that provides natural gas and electric services to residential, commercial and industrial customers in the United States. Its operations are primarily focused on the distribution, transmission and storage of natural gas, along with electric generation and distribution in Indiana.

Through its Columbia Gas utilities, NiSource serves natural gas customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts and Kentucky. Its Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO) subsidiary provides natural gas and electric service in northern Indiana. The company also owns and operates infrastructure supporting the delivery and storage of energy.

NiSource traces its history to utility operations in Indiana and adopted its current name in 1999. Headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana, the company is focused on operating regulated energy networks and modernizing its infrastructure to support safe, reliable and increasingly lower-emission energy service.

NiSource Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Expect delays in solar and storage projects due to the U.S. Commerce Department investigation, resulting in the remaining two Schaefer coal units now slated to retire by end of 2025.
• Reaffirmed 2022 guidance of $1.42 to $1.48 diluted non-GAAP NOEPS and upheld a 7–9% CAGR in diluted non-GAAP NOEPS from 2021 through 2024, including 5–7% near-term growth through 2023.
• Implementing mitigation measures by pulling forward modernization projects in gas and electric businesses and exercising O&M expense agility to support 2024 growth commitments despite renewable delays.
• Achieved regulatory progress with a settlement in NIPSCO’s gas rate case and new rate filings in Pennsylvania and Virginia to underpin rate base growth forecast.
• NiSource will host an Investor Day in the fall to present a definitive long-term plan beyond 2024 once solar project timing is clarified.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the NiSource Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, just press star one. Thank you. Christopher Turnure, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

[Christopher Turnure, Director of Investor Relations at NiSource]

Morning, and welcome to the NiSource Q1 2022 Investor Call. Joining me today are Lloyd Yates, our Chief Executive Officer, Donald Brown, our Chief Financial Officer, Shawn Anderson, our Chief Strategy and Risk Officer, Pablo Vegas, our Chief Operating Officer, and Randy Hulin, our VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. The purpose of this presentation is to review NiSource's financial performance for Q1 of 2022, as well as provide an update on our operations and growth drivers. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to your questions. Slides for today's call are available on nisource.com. Before turning the call over to Lloyd, Donald, and Shawn. A quick reminder, some of the statements made during this presentation will be forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements.

[Christopher Turnure, Director of Investor Relations at NiSource]

Information concerning such risks and uncertainties is included in the MD&A and risk factors sections of our periodic SEC filings. Additionally, some of the statements made on this call relate to non-GAAP measures. For additional information on the most comparable GAAP measure and a reconciliation of these measures, please refer to the supplemental slides and segment information, including our full financial schedules available at nisource.com. With all of that out of the way, I'd like to turn the call over to Lloyd.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Hopefully, you've all had a chance to read our Q1's earnings release, which we issued earlier today. NiSource's Q1 shows continued strong execution on our plans for growth and sustainability while providing reliable service to our customers. The resiliency and flexibility of our business plan continues to support our commitment to deliver 7%-9% compound annual growth in NOEPS non-GAAP from 2021 through 2024. First of all, I want to thank the employees and contractors of NiSource for their continued commitment to safely serving our customers. Now let's turn to slide three and take a closer look at our key takeaways.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

While we are committed to completing our generation transition from coal by 2028, we expect delays in most of the solar and storage projects intended for completion in 2022 and 2023. These are due to the uncertainty hanging over the solar panel market as a result of the Department of Commerce investigation. As a result of the projected delays, we now expect to retire the remaining two coal units at Schahfer Generating Station by the end of 2025. Despite those delays, we are confident in reaffirming our 2022 guidance of $1.42-1.48 diluted non-GAAP NOEPS, and we are reaffirming our forecast for the 7%-9% compound annual growth rate from 2021 through 2024, including near term annual growth of 5%-7% through 2023.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

We will exercise flexibility in our business plan by pulling forward modernization projects in our gas and electric business and employ O&M expense agility to support our plan. NiSource will host an investor day in the fall where we expect to have more clarity on our business review and solar project completions. We intend to provide you with a definitive long-term plan beyond 2024. We continue to make strong progress in our regulatory agenda with a settlement in NIPSCO's gas rate case and new cases filed in Pennsylvania and Virginia. NiSource posted non-GAAP diluted net operating earnings per share or NOEPS of $0.75 in Q1 versus $0.77 last year. We have a lot to discuss this morning, but I would like to take a few moments to share some observations from my first few months here at NiSource.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I've had the opportunity to meet with employees, leaders, customers, regulators, policymakers, and many others. I see some real strengths, and I also see opportunities for improvement. Here are some areas we will be focusing on. First and foremost, we will continue to focus on enhancing safety. This allows us to provide the best possible service to our customers. We are intent on maintaining our regulatory excellence. We have completed several rate cases in the past year. We have a number of cases pending. Together, they will provide additional visibility underpinning our rate base growth forecast. We will relentlessly pursue operational excellence across the businesses to ensure safety, reliability, and enhance customers' experience and organizational productivity and efficiency.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Our focus on these areas will help us build on the core strengths of our business, our investment driven growth plan, and the opportunities we see in the NiSource footprint. Now, we want to update you on how the government solar panel investigation is affecting our renewable generation plans. I'd like to turn it over to Shawn Anderson. Shawn?

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Thank you, Lloyd, and good morning, everyone. As most of you are aware, the investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce related to the import of solar components from certain countries has brought uncertainty and delays to the solar panel market. We, along with others in the industry, continue to advocate for an expeditious resolution to this investigation. The uncertainty that this investigation has introduced underscores the need for continued development of the domestic clean energy supply chain, which NiSource is very much supportive of. The NiSource team has been in constant contact with our diverse renewable generation developers. We've worked hard to gain a better understanding the potential project delays might have on our plans and our generating portfolio. Our renewable generation plans include 10 solar projects, which are intended to replace the retiring capacity at Schaefer Generating Station, including two projects currently under construction.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Indiana Crossroads Solar and Dunns Bridge I broke ground in Q4 2021. We are shifting the anticipated in-service date from the end of 2022 to reflect a mid-2023 targeted date, reflective of an anticipated delay associated with the department's investigation. These projects and most of our other solar projects at various stages of the development process are expected to be delayed by approximately six to 18 months from the originally targeted completion across 2022 and 2023. It is important to note that this is a broad timeframe, given the uncertainty, but ultimately each project will be impacted differently. We are working with our developer partners to refine our assessments on the expected impact. Given these delays, we now expect to retire Schahfer's remaining two coal units by the end of 2025.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

However, we continue to expect Michigan City Generating Station to retire on schedule between 2026 and 2028. These retirements project NiSource to eliminate all coal-fired generation by 2028 and continue to track towards our targeted 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. It is important to underscore the potential unintended consequences for our customers. As we demonstrated in our 2018 and 2021 IRP, the renewable resources we are adding to the portfolio drive significant cost savings to our customers and help insulate them against high commodity and energy prices. Our focus has been to accelerate savings for our customers to benefit from the renewable transition, and delays resulting from this investigation may ultimately delay the timing of when our customers can begin receiving these benefits, especially in the current energy cost inflationary environment.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

As the investigation relates to our capital investment plan, we believe the primary impact is timing and continue to expect renewable investments to total approximately $2 billion, primarily between 2022 and 2024, with any remainder expected in 2025. At the beginning of our discussion today, Lloyd mentioned the flexibility in NiSource's financial plan, and this is where the diversification of our operating companies can support our long-term commitments. We expect to adjust our modernization investments to account for the timing changes in renewable energy project investments to remain on track to make capital investments totaling approximately $10 billion during the 2021 and 2024 period. These capital investments are expected to drive compound annual base rate growth of 10%-12% for each of the company's businesses through 2024.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Donald, who will discuss our Investor Day and financial performance in more detail.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

Thanks, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start with that we have moved the timing to hold an Investor Day event to this fall. We believe shifting the timing of our Investor Day will allow us to gain a clearer line of sight into the solar project timing and provide more details around the business review so that we can provide a definitive long-term plan beyond 2024. During this fall event, we intend to provide an extension to our capital investment and growth plan, a detailed update on our generation transition and ESG profile, as well as give you an opportunity to hear from the leaders of our businesses. Now, turning to our Q1 2022 results on slide four.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

We had non-GAAP net operating earnings of about $329 million or 0.75 per diluted share, compared to non-GAAP net operating earnings of about $305 million or 0.77 per diluted share in the Q1 of 2021. These Q1 2022 results represent a solid start to the year, and as Lloyd mentioned a few minutes ago, we have reaffirmed our 2022 guidance of $1.42-1.48 in all of our long-term diluted non-GAAP net operating earnings per share growth rates. Taking a closer look at our segment non-GAAP results on slide five. Distribution operating earnings were about $405 million for Q1 of 2022, representing an increase of approximately $31 million versus the same quarter last year.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

Operating revenues, net of the cost of energy and tracked expenses, were higher by approximately $66 million, mainly due to new rates resulting from base rate cases and regulatory capital programs. Operating expenses, again, net of cost of energy and tracked expenses, were higher by approximately $35 million. In our electric segment, non-GAAP operating earnings for Q1 were about $99 million, which was about 8 million higher than 2021. Operating revenues, net of the cost of energy and tracked expenses, increased by approximately $9 million due largely to revenue from regulated investments. Other operating expenses were essentially flat to 2021 levels. Now turning to slide six, I'd like to briefly touch on our debt and credit profile.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

Our debt level as of March 31 was about $9.8 billion, of which 9.2 billion was long-term debt with a weighted average maturity of approximately 14 years and a weighted average interest rate of approximately 3.7%. At the end of Q1, we maintained net available liquidity of about $1.9 billion, consisting of cash and available capacity under our credit facility and our accounts receivable securitization programs. We also continue our commitment to retaining our current investment-grade credit ratings, and I would note that Fitch has completed their 2022 annual credit review with no change to our rating or outlook. Our debt and credit profile continue to represent a solid financial foundation to support our long-term safety and infrastructure investments.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

As you can see on slide seven and eight, we are in the process of making some adjustments to our financial plan to reflect expected delays in solar generation projects that will help mitigate the earnings impact of these delays and enable us to maintain our 2024 EPS growth commitment. Both the long-term visibility of our capital plan and the flexibility in our regulatory mechanisms illustrates the resiliency and strength of our business and provides us confidence to maintain all of our commitments, including EPS growth.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

Taking a quick look at slide nine, which highlights our financing plan, the only slight change to our financing plan is to extend the potential timing related to the debt financing of the renewable generation investments, which, as we indicated on slide eight, provides incremental interest savings to mitigate the renewable project delays. Again, this balanced financing plan is consistent with all of our earnings growth and credit commitments. Now I'll turn it over to Lloyd, who will discuss our utilities highlights.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Thanks, Donald. Let's look at the NiSource gas distribution highlights for Q1, starting on slide 10. Columbia Gas of Virginia filed a rate case on April 29 to continue its safety and modernization investments. The case seeks an increase in annual revenues of approximately $58 million. Columbia Gas of Ohio is preparing its response to the report from the staff of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Once that is filed, we look forward to beginning settlement discussions. Columbia Gas of Pennsylvania filed a rate case on March 18. It focuses on upgrading and replacing gas lines for the long-term safety of customers and communities. The case requests additional revenues of about $82 million. It also seeks to provide additional energy efficiency options while balancing costs. NIPSCO has filed a proposed settlement in its gas rate case.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

The agreement would provide a revenue increase of approximately $72 million annually. In addition to infrastructure modernization, the proposal would enable NIPSCO to continue to serve customers with a safe, reliable supply of natural gas while remaining in compliance with state and federal safety requirements. NIPSCO also filed a petition on April 1 seeking approval of federally mandated pipeline safety costs, including nearly $229 million of capital costs and about $34 million of operating and maintenance expenses. In addition, I'd like to mention that NiSource has joined the Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas. We believe natural gas infrastructure will play an important role in America's energy future, potentially carrying renewable natural gas, as well as other low carbon fuels such as hydrogen.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

As NiSource explores opportunities to further decarbonize its natural gas system, its local distribution companies are pursuing programs that will allow customers to reduce the carbon intensity of their natural gas usage through the renewable natural gas and carbon offsets. Regulatory filings seeking approval of these programs are underway in Pennsylvania and Virginia, similar to NIPSCO Green Power program that has been in place for several years. Let's turn now to our electric operations on slide 11. Analysis continues on new generation investments resulting from the 2021 integrated resource plan. NIPSCO filed a petition with the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission seeking approval of NIPSCO's federally mandated costs for remediation of the coal combustion residual ash pond at Michigan City Generating Station. We will be removing coal combustion residuals and replacing them with clean fill.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

The federally mandated costs include a total estimated $40 million of retirement costs. Before we take your questions, I'd like to highlight our safety progress. Safety continues to be the foundation of everything we do at NiSource. To give stakeholders a view of our strategy and achievements, we have published our inaugural annual safety report. Highlights include our risk management and continuous improvement activities, continued safety investments in technology integration to enhance safety. The report is available on the NiSource website, and I would encourage everyone to take a look. One very significant item in the report is the launch of the Natural Gas Safety Management System Collaborative, an effort among safety-focused energy companies. Its aim is to drive progress and maturity of safety management systems at member companies. NiSource will benefit from sharing information and learning from the experiences of others.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I want to thank you all for participating today and for your ongoing interest and support of NiSource. We're now ready to take your questions.

[Operator]

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

[Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse]

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Lots of good detail on the deck. I guess just to kick it off, on the $1 billion of renewable investments in service by 2023, I know you talked about the six to 13-months window. Can you just kind of give us a little bit more detail on what's giving you confidence in being able to get these projects done in the 2023 window? I guess just the risk would be that the $1 billion would slip to 2024. Are these 2023 projects just on that six months side of the window, of the six to 13-months window, or just what can you kind of tell us there?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Why don't you handle that, Shawn? Go ahead.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Thanks, Lloyd. Appreciate that. Nick, appreciate the question. So first off, I think you said six to 13. I just want to make sure it's clear. We are projecting a six to 18 month delay at this time for all projects. It will vary by project. To your point, the reasons that we might see a different duration of delay for the projects that are currently under construction are because we began the construction process for those projects in 2021, and they're simply further along in the process to have a better understanding of the timing to complete, despite the disruption that we've witnessed more recently. For these projects, we're comfortable advancing them to completion, given the compelling economics and they provide great line of sight to what it would take to complete at this point.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

The team's very active in that process. For the 2023 projects, the other projects, we simply haven't started the construction process yet, which gives us the ability to assess the impacts of the tariffs and the timing associated with the investigation to better inform what the timelines might be. To your other point, with the $1 billion, we've got approximately $400 million of that already constructed and operational. Those are operating assets today. Likewise, we see low risk in the transmission-related projects, which is another $150 million of high-confidence projects.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

The projects that are limited in scope here to the DOC-investigated risks are just those two projects that account for the balance of the $1 billion, so that's $440 on the two projects currently under construction.

[Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse]

Shawn,

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Well, I'd also note as well.

[Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse]

Go ahead. Sorry.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

We do have wind projects that you wouldn't be subject to the same DOC-related risk. Some operational, of course, also included, without a delay in 2023.

[Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse]

It's really just to clarify, it's really just the, you know, $400-500 million that's in this six to 18 months delay window in terms of 2023 capital?

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

No, it's $440 million associated with the two existing projects that are going to continue construction during the conclusion of this investigation. The delays could also apply to the balance of projects, meaning most of our projects could experience a delay of six to 18 months. We would need clarity from the investigation to better inform the duration of delay associated with all of the other projects.

[Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse]

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. I guess just a question for Lloyd on strategy. You know, you've been in the seat for a few months now. Last call you kind of talked about being open to buying and selling assets. Just how has your kind of thinking evolved at all here? If you could just update us, please.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

We're still in the midst of our strategic business review. We have a group of senior executives in the company and board members and we're walking down a specific process to do those evaluations. We have an outline and a timeline we're operating on, and I expect to reveal that information in the fall when we do our Investor Day.

[Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse]

Thanks a lot. I'll go back in the queue.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

[Shar Pourreza, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Morning, Shar.

[Shar Pourreza, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners]

Lloyd, let me just fine-tune the prior question. Just as far as strategy and the Analyst Day, curious if, you know, since it was pushed off from, you know, obviously the tenth of this month till the fall, are you gonna be in a position to actually announce some strategic moves with the utilities, meaning transactions with defined closing dates? Or would you just sort of highlight which utilities could be under a strategic review and that you'll continue to update us as time goes on? Maybe taking a playbook from one of your Texas peers.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I'm not far enough along in the process to determine that right now, Shar, of specifically what I'm going to announce. I think that, you know, I think the question you're getting at is will we have answers in the fall? The answer to that will be yes. I'm not going to foreshadow announcing any kind of transactions or anything on this phone call. Now, what I'm gonna foreshadow is we'll have answers in the fall, and we expect definitive announcements in terms of where we're taking the business.

[Shar Pourreza, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners]

Got it. That's helpful. Just one more on the prior question is just on sort of the DOC investigations. I mean, hopefully we'll get a proposed decision in August, but then there's gonna be a 150-day comment period. I mean, you can actually have some pricing uncertainty that'll carry beyond sort of what you guys are thinking. What's the level of confidence that when you guys have the Analyst Day, you're gonna have enough information to be able to provide a longer term CapEx number, and we don't see incremental projects kind of being shifted out?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I'll start it and I'll turn it over to Shawn. You know, I think by the time we get to Investor Day, you know, we're running different scenarios and alternatives in our integrated resource plan. Those scenarios and alternatives do include further delay, you know, on this Commerce investigation. Now we have, I'll say, a diverse set of utilities with significant modernization projects and other capital opportunities that we believe we can pull forward and continue to execute our plan until this investigation is done. Shawn, you want to weigh in on anything else there?

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Thanks, Lloyd. Appreciate it. Shar, thanks for the question. Good morning. I think that at a minimum, I'd expect we'd have a range or an idea of where the projects could potentially, you know, grow, if you will. Although I'd say that anything the DOC can do to help refine and narrow the scope would be helpful for us to understand how it could possibly apply to our specific projects. What seems to be unique about this investigation is that it can be very component specific in how it's applied and thus how it impacts your specific supply chain. It's hard to look at a headline, so to speak, and then apply it directly to your situation.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

You really have to look at things on a project-by-project basis, how it's financed and what efficiencies we might already have being somewhat earlier in the queue on some of these projects, like Dunns Bridge I and Indiana Crossroads. I think our focus for the next few months is going to be understanding from our developer partners the range of outcomes that could grow, and also look to the Department of Commerce to hopefully refine the scope of the investigation to help us better inform the very answer to your question.

[Shar Pourreza, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners]

Got it. Just real quick, lastly, for me is, you know, on slide eight, you guys show sort of the impacts of the delayed renewable investment and how you're able to pull forward tracked CapEx and sort of other investments in 2022 and 2023 to help offset the impact in 2024, right? You also do kind of highlight that that annual CapEx timing and amounts can shift. If we're sort of thinking about your 7%-9%, you know, CAGR, are you now kind of more back-end loaded, so we should be modeling maybe bottom end in the near term? I guess, how do we think about the shaping in light of the CapEx shuffling? The delays seem a little bit more impactful versus what you can pull forward.

[Donald Brown, CFO at NiSource]

No, I wouldn't do any shaping of that. You think about our capital programs and the tracker mechanisms we've got in place. It really does allow us to get earnings and cash flows, on average about 12 months after we make those investments. We'll start that in 2022 and go into 2023. It really does support our annual guidance as well as our long-term CAGR.

[Shar Pourreza, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners]

Terrific. Thanks, Donald. Thanks, Lloyd and Shawn. Talk to you guys soon.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Yep.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland from JP Morgan. Your line is open.

[Richard Sunderland, Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan]

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the time today. In turning to the Schahfer update, do you need any approvals, whether MISO or Indiana on the extension there? Are there any EPA implications with the change in the retirement?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I'll turn it to Shawn for specifics, but we do not need any specific EPA approvals to move that retirement date on Schahfer.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Yes, that's right, Lloyd. We've begun discussions with key stakeholders, including MISO, the IURC, and as well as our team there to understand the ramifications with that.

[Richard Sunderland, Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan]

Understood. You've talked about timing around the renewables CapEx, but just curious on the cost side, if you're seeing any potential ramifications here. I know you reiterated the $2 billion, but just thinking about the risk maybe as you move further out, any considerations or thoughts there?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I think yes. The answer that we do, I mean, especially around labor costs on some of these projects. I mean, just like the rest of the world, I mean, everybody's seeing inflation everywhere. Just like the labor costs on these projects are going up, I mean, so is the price of our commodity, natural gas. The overall price of energy. I think when you think about investing or continuing to invest in renewable projects, I think you have to look at it holistically and understand how that compares with the price increases on other forms of energy and decide which ones you want to continue to invest in to provide reliable service to customers.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

I'd say.....

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Got it.

[Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO at NiSource]

Just to follow up. It's too early, as we are in the process, we're working with our developers for us to update any estimates on the individual projects. As we get more clarity and negotiate and work with those developers, we'll update the amounts as appropriate or if appropriate.

[Christopher Turnure, Director of Investor Relations at NiSource]

That's very clear. Thank you for the time.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs, your line is open. Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller from Morningstar. Your line is open.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

Good morning, everyone. Thank you. Just wanted to be crystal clear here. These are anticipated or potential delays on those projects, right? Or have you actually heard from suppliers that they won't be able to deliver on those projects? Just want to be sure I understand that.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

The question, are you asking these about projects that we have started, that Shawn mentioned that have started in 2021, or the projects that have not started at all? Just want to clarify the question.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

Yeah, the ones that haven't. That's the 440 that you're referring to, right?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

That's correct. Shawn?

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Yeah.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

Yeah.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

The projects that have not begun the construction process, to your point, are projected delays of six to 18 months, and that's the updated in-service date that we are estimating on the slide in the supplemental materials. The projects currently under construction is our best line of sight to what it would take to conclude construction and have those become COD. Those would be a little bit more definitive in the terms of how the delay would impact an in-service date, in contrast to the ones that haven't begun the construction process and are still just estimated.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

Okay. If something were to resolve quickly around just any of this uncertainty, it's possible that you'd still be on track.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Yeah.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

For the CapEx budget that you laid out before.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Yes.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

Okay. Great, just want to clarify that. Second, just thinking about where gas prices have gone and your cadence of rate increases and rate filings, any thoughts on how customer bill might impact? I know you've got the two rate cases going here, but any future, either later this year or next year?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Yeah. Thanks for asking that question. We're always thinking about customer rate impact and customer bill. I think part of this is we try and, you know, put CapEx in the system to drive value for customers. We're also trying to drive productivity and efficiency to offset some of those customer increases. I mean, in answer to your question, we are thinking about customer bill impact and continuously having say conversation with regulators about what that means.

[Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar]

Okay, great. Thanks so much. That's all I have.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

[Insoo Kim, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, can you guys hear me okay?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Yes, Brian. Good morning.

[Insoo Kim, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Hey, apologies. This is Insoo. I don't know why my colleague Brian put on the call, but it's Insoo here. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on your commentary on how the solar installs in the wake of retirement, if it had gone on the original timeline, would have helped meaningfully lower customer bills. Now that it's delayed and with the plan that you've laid out in place to replace some of that CapEx with other items as well as O&M, just how confident are you that the customer bill impact from this revised plan won't face potential regulatory hurdles?

[Insoo Kim, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

I know part of that is supported by, you know, tracker-related CapEx, but just wanted to see your confidence, color on confidence that the 2024 earnings power should remain unchanged.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I'll probably let Pablo take that.

[Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO at NiSource]

Yeah. Hi, Insoo. Great question, and I'd say that I'd point to the kind of diverse portfolio across the companies that we're going to be leveraging. It wouldn't necessarily fall fully in the Indiana jurisdiction where we would be making investments to help pull forward some of those capital opportunities. We would be spreading that to the extent that we can across our companies where we have those investment needs, and we've got the capacity to do that. That would help to moderate the impacts on any one customer group. Then, of course, we'll continue to look for opportunities to, you know, refine efficiencies and productivity savings, you know, across all the jurisdictions to help offset that as well.

[Insoo Kim, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. My second question, just looking at the quarterly results, unless I missed something, it seems like on the gas O&M side, there was a meaningful or, you know, a decent amount of increase there. I think you've laid out on the supplemental forms, the labor, materials inflation. I don't know if that was more directed towards gas only, and I didn't see it really on electric. Is there anything on the gas side that was having more of an inflationary impact? Just related to that, you know, commentary on how you think you'll be able to manage that, and, you know, be at least the middle of that 2022 guidance range for the year?

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

I'll start that, and Pablo or Donald can weigh in. When we look at our gas business, especially this winter, we had a very challenging winter. When you do gas work, you know, you're doing a lot of digging in the ground and you're dealing with weather incidents. Your productivity levels are typically not where you need them to be. You know, the ground's harder, a lot harder to get to some of our leaks. Now over time, as the weather clears up, we expect to get those productivity gains back. I think it's more of a weather issue that we can turn around here in the near term. Pablo?

[Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO at NiSource]

Yeah, I agree with that. It's been an extremely wet start to the season, which delays some of our construction work, which then puts folks working on other types of compliance and operations work that shifts that CapEx and OpEx mix a bit. We saw that shift happen in Q1. We expect to see that shift back and have the ability with the work out there to make up that difference as we look at the balance of 2022.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

I follow up on inflation. We are seeing higher inflation on materials, in fleet, and some outside services. You know, we're seeing ranges of 6%-10% this year. We're actively managing that and looking to lock in some multiyear contracts so that we can limit those increases, at least have predictability around those increases. However, I'll go back to, you know, all of this is included in our guidance for this year in our long-term plan. You know, we're comfortable with our guidance. We're comfortable with the expenses we're seeing, but we're also actively managing, going back to thinking about long-term customer affordability of our programs.

[Insoo Kim, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Okay. Got it. This was largely known. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you so much.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is open.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Good morning, Julien.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Hey, I hope you guys are doing well. Maybe just to kick things off a little bit here, I'm going back to that last question on the 6%-10% cost inflation. What metric were you quoting there on that 6%-10%? But more germane, if I can, the real question I wanted to throw in there was, can you touch on your cost reduction measures, specifically in NiSource Next? What are the costs that are being pulled out against the backdrop of that inflationary environment? And maybe to be more specific, are these sustainable cost-cutting measures on the $0.03-0.04, or are they more one-time-ish in nature?

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

What kind of latitude are you seeing given this inflationary environment to potentially lean in and find more than $0.03-0.04 of opportunity here as we look at the business to more than offset some of these impacts?

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

Yeah. You've got a couple parts to your question.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Take your time.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

The first question was around inflation, what we're seeing. You know, we're tracking each, I'd say category of spend across the business, electric and gas, looking at year-over-year impacts, looking at contracts and to really understand what we're seeing and how to best manage those. That's where we're seeing kind of the 6%-10% across certain categories. In some places it's flat because we've got multiyear contracts already in place, but certainly seeing some inflation there. Other question I think you were referring to, the $0.04-0.05 in 2024. We've got line of sight to that. And we think about both from, I'd say, NiSource Next to your point.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

Those would be costs that would go out over time, and it gets back to Lloyd and Pablo's point around productivity. NiSource Next really is designed to increase productivity across our business, especially in the field. That's the long-term savings. Certainly we've got levers on a year-over-year basis to ensure that we're hitting our targets. It's really all of the above.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. Just to clarify that $0.03-0.04 from the slide here on the O&M, and that is an ongoing savings opportunity. We still got to wait for what you guys have to say in the fall here for more?

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

That's right. Yeah. That is right.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Part of this is we're developing, I'll say an O&M agility methodology. As we build our O&M budgets every year, we'll have a ±2% agility in there that we can flex. The other part, as Donald talked about with NiSource Next and gaining productivity is more structural, focused on continuously building more productivity and efficiency into the business as we go along. We'll have more detail in the fall on that, on both of those.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Got it. All right. Excellent. Thank you guys. Just super quick if I can on Ohio. I know that that's in flight here, but can you discuss a little bit more specifically the delta between your ask and staff's rec? You know, obviously, you know, there's some obvious ones, but you know, the percent of ask was low. Can you reconcile that a little bit? More even more critically, you know, not looking to front run the rebuttal here, but what is the opportunity to potentially address some of these discrepancies here, more formally?

[Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO at NiSource]

Hey, Julien, this is Pablo. You know, I'll say first off, you know, we've had and expect to continue to have constructive regulatory outcomes in Ohio over the last many years between our capital expenditure program and our IRP programs. We're working constructively on this issue as well. Certainly the staff report and the delta between our application and their recommendation is meaningful. We are taking the opportunity since we've seen that report to help clarify some of the elements inside of ours. Some of the specific elements are certainly O&M assumptions.

[Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO at NiSource]

There are some plant in-service assumptions that drive some differences, and there's some liabilities and items along those lines on environmental and such that we're working on. We're working to clarify where we think some of the differences have been. We think that'll, in our response to their staff report in our rebuttal, which we're gonna file this week still, we'll have an opportunity to do that. Then we're gonna file supplemental testimony by Friday of next week. During that time, we're gonna also work to initiate settlement discussions. We still fully expect that a settlement is possible. We'll be working towards that. We think that there's a reasonable settlement out there that's gonna benefit all of the stakeholders in this, and we're gonna be tracking towards that, Julien.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Wish you the best of luck, Pablo. Talk to you guys soon. All right? Thanks.

[Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO at NiSource]

Thanks.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the details that you provided this morning on the solar issue and offsets and such. One question following up on the cost, if there are cost increases for the projects. Can you give more clarity on how the relationship is between your developer partners and yourself in terms of who's kind of on the hook for cost increases?

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Yes, Steve, this is Shawn. The cost of the project itself is on the build-transfer agreement, it's fully contracted for at a known price. The cost increases themselves are on the side of the developer to construct those projects. To the extent that tariffs are applied, we'd have to evaluate what the application of those tariffs are to understand that cost pressure and risk and where that lives.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay. It's not clear where the tariffs, if it's tariff related, who's kind of got to deal with that issue?

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

That's correct.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay. Are the contracts consistent, or do they vary on that topic between different projects? Yeah.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Each contract's unique, Steve, but certainly there's some components that are consistent. That particular element has it, the entire construct itself and how it's financed, can vary and would come into consideration. I describe it as each project or each contract's unique, but the application of that itself, we'd have to evaluate as the project steps closer.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Okay. I know you just announced this today, but the idea that an investigation is causing delays in solar projects, forcing you to extend the life of a coal plant, seems like kind of a meaningful policy issue for the same administration that's actually doing this investigation. You know, I know it seems like it's been so far very technical process. There's obviously a political aspect to this. I'm just curious kind of if you're getting any sense whether that's resonating at all or not.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

Yeah, Steve, I mean, I would highlight, as I did in my comments, that we're disappointed that a disruption in the solar chain is going to constitute potential delays for customers to realize benefits and some cost certainty related to fuel price volatility. That's the premise by which these projects really were born, and it's disappointing that that might occur. That said, we're optimistic the Department of Commerce can work expeditiously to provide some refinements in its investigation that can enable these projects to move through as quickly as possible. At the core of what we do, it's about reliability for our customers and the communities we serve.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

That's a critical component that we are focused on, which is part of what Schahfer can deliver and has delivered for many years, which is part of the decision that we've laid out here today. We're optimistic that even with recent refinements the DOC has provided, it can give us enough information to get clarity through the conversations with our developers to advance our specific projects as expeditiously as practical to get to, I think, what you're alluding to, which is really a lower cost energy solution with more price certainty for customers.

[Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine from Citigroup. Your line is open.

[Ryan Levine, Equity Analyst at Citigroup]

Good morning. If there are any cost overruns for solar that NiSource is responsible for, can you speak to the recovery mechanisms for these cost overruns and if the delays trigger any legal rights for the company with its counterparties on these projects? Somewhat related, given the announced delay expectations, how are you looking at these delays impacting financing plans as they relate to the ATM and other sources of funds? I think you had a footnote in your slide deck on that front.

[Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer at NiSource]

I think the first part of your question, I think it's too early to speculate on if the tariffs would be applied, how it would be, what the circumstances would be. By nature, the CPCNs give us the regulatory approval to move forward with these projects. We'd address any cost variance from the projects, that would be different than the existing CPCNs, through the regulatory process with the IURC. I think the question on that front end is addressed through the regulatory process itself with the IURC against the existing CPCNs to move forward.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Let me ask a clarifying question. When you talk about cost overruns, you mean the cost, just general cost overruns of the project or cost overruns with just with respect to the tariffs? Which question are you asking?

[Ryan Levine, Equity Analyst at Citigroup]

More of the first, but I guess both are okay.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Okay. I think when you talk about general cost overruns, I think those are covered in the contract with the developer. With respect to the tariffs, I don't think those are contemplated in the contracts. Therefore, we have to work with the developer and/or the regulator to decide who bears that risk.

[Donald Brown, EVP and CFO at NiSource]

With regards to the financing plan, certainly we expect that if there's delays, it's gonna delay the any debt financing that we do on the projects. That's where we expect we'd see some savings from deferring some of that debt issuance. With regard to ATM, no changes to our financing plan now. You see the ranges that we've got outlined here. Certainly, no ATM in 2023 is possible, and that's certainly taking into account the both our overall business as well as those renewable projects.

[Ryan Levine, Equity Analyst at Citigroup]

Thank you. One unrelated question for Lloyd with the business review process. Are there certain areas of the review that has been decided to evaluate more comprehensively? Is that part of the reason for the delay in timing of the Analyst Day? Any color you could share on that would be appreciated.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Let me be clear. The delay in the Investor Day is primarily focused on the delay in the solar projects. You know, I was never, I didn't believe I would be finished a review by, you know, a May or spring Investor Day. I think the level of review that we're taking, looking hard at just each of the utilities, how they contribute to the overall business, where our corporate services are, what productivity looks like in the organization, how we benchmark, you know, all that's ongoing. It just so happens, I believe, in that target, making sure that we're finished in the fall in conjunction with these projects, so that we can give what I call a comprehensive review of strategy at NiSource in terms of how we'll grow after 2024.

[Ryan Levine, Equity Analyst at Citigroup]

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

Mm-hmm.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Lloyd Yates, our CEO, I turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

First of all, thank you for your questions. I'd like to close by reiterating a few key takeaways. One, NiSource expects the Department of Commerce solar panel investigation to delay solar projects. We're developing and implementing a mitigation plan to maintain our 2024 growth commitments. We're reaffirming our 2022 guidance of $1.42-1.48 diluted non-GAAP NOEPS. We are reaffirming our forecast for 7%-9% compound annual growth rate from 2021 through 2024, including near term annual growth of 5%-7% through 2023. We continue to make strong progress in our regulatory agenda with a settlement in NIPSCO's gas rate case and new cases filed in Pennsylvania and Virginia. NiSource will host the Investor Day in the fall. We intend to provide you with a definitive long-term plan beyond 2024. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference.

[Lloyd Yates, President and CEO at NiSource]

We appreciate you joining us this morning.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Christopher Turnure, Director of Investor Relations
• Lloyd Yates, President and CEO
• Shawn Anderson, Chief Strategy and Risk Officer
• Donald Brown, EVP and CFO
• Donald Brown, CFO
• Pablo Vegas, EVP and COO

Analysts

• Nicholas Campanella, VP at Credit Suisse
• Shar Pourreza, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners
• Richard Sunderland, Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan
• Travis Miller, Senior Equity Analyst at Morningstar
• Insoo Kim, Equity Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America
• Steve Fleishman, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Wolfe Research
• Ryan Levine, Equity Analyst at Citigroup