Home Depot Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 16, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Q1 sales reached $38.9 B (+3.8%) and EPS was $4.09 (+6%), prompting raised fiscal 2022 guidance to ~3% sales growth, 15.4% operating margin and mid‐single‐digit EPS growth.
  • Pro customer demand drove double‐digit growth in big‐ticket projects as pro sales outpaced DIY, supported by product innovation and expanded fulfillment capabilities.
  • Average ticket rose 11.2%, led by inflation in lumber, copper and building materials, while comp transactions were pressured by late spring weather and stimulus anniversary.
  • Gross margin contracted ~20 bps to 33.8% due to supply chain investments and lumber cost pressure, with operating margin at 15.2% (-20 bps) and higher interest expense.
  • Inventory grew to $25.3 B (turns 4.4×), driven by higher in‐stock initiatives, inflation and delayed spring, marking the healthiest in‐stock position since the pandemic began.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Home Depot Q1 2022
00:00 / 00:00

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Isabel Janci
Isabel Janci
VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at The Home Depot

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to The Home Depot's first quarter of 2022 earnings call. Joining us on our call today are Ted Decker, CEO and President, Jeff Kinnaird, Executive Vice President of Merchandising, and Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions. Questions will be limited to analysts and investors. As a reminder, please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up. If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our investor relations department at 770-384-2387. Before I turn the call over to Ted, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Isabel Janci
Isabel Janci
VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at The Home Depot

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentations will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website. Now, let me turn the call over to Ted.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on the call this morning. Fiscal 2022 is off to a strong start. Sales for the first quarter were $38.9 billion, up 3.8% from the same period last year. Comp sales were up 2.2% from the same period last year, and our U.S. stores had positive comps of 1.7%. Diluted earnings per share were $4.09 in the first quarter, up 6% from $3.86 in the first quarter last year. The strong performance in the quarter is even more impressive given the robust performance we were comparing against last year.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

A year ago, we delivered the highest first quarter sales in company history as we benefited from outsized demand for home improvement goods, favorable weather, and government stimulus. This year, we achieved a new high-water mark for first quarter sales as strong demand for home improvement goods continued despite a slower start to spring in many parts of the country. Delivering such strong results on top of last year's historical growth is a testament to our orange-blooded associates. They are maintaining their relentless focus on our customers while continuing to navigate the ongoing pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, inflation, and a tight labor market. We are also thankful for the strength of our relationships with our supplier and transportation partners. Our respective teams are working tirelessly to flow product to stores and distribution centers as quickly and efficiently as possible.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

I would like to thank them for their ongoing support as we continue to navigate a challenging and dynamic environment. The demand seen in the first quarter exceeded our expectations. The home improvement consumer remains engaged. Customers continue to tell us that their homes have never been more important and project backlogs are very healthy. We believe that the medium to longer term underpinnings of demand for home improvement have never been stronger. We are thrilled with our pro performance in the quarter, driven by underlying strength in project demand. We continue to invest in an ecosystem of capabilities, including enhanced fulfillment options, a more personalized online experience, as well as other business management tools to drive deeper engagement with our pro customers, and we believe our efforts are resonating.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

We are navigating a unique environment, but we believe we have the tools, the team, and the experience to effectively manage through. While we don't know how inflation might impact consumer behavior going forward, we are closely monitoring elasticities and customer trends across our respective categories and geographies and remain encouraged by the underlying strength we see in the business. Jeff will provide a bit more color about what we've observed from a category and big ticket standpoint in a moment. While inflation impacted our average ticket increase this quarter, it wasn't the only impact. As we've seen over the past several years, our customers continue to trade up for premium innovative products. In March, we held an in-person store manager meeting for the first time in three years. One of the many highlights of that week is our product walk, where vendors showcase the latest in product innovation.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

What I can share with you is that the level of innovation across the business is robust. In fact, almost 90% of the products on display this year are entirely new SKUs to The Home Depot, so the pipeline for innovative products remains very strong. Beyond product and innovation, my biggest takeaway from the store managers meeting is how energized the team is. The exceptional execution our associates delivered over the last few years hasn't been easy, but our teams have consistently risen to the challenge. We frequently survey our associate base and are pleased that engagement and morale remain high. Last quarter, we talked about our customer-backed approach to remove friction at every touch point of the shopping experience. To that end, we recently announced that Matt Carey has been named Executive Vice President of Customer Experience.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

In this newly formed role, Matt will partner across the business to help design and develop new and innovative solutions to drive a seamless experience for our customers. As Matt transitions to this new role, we also announced that Fahim Siddiqui has been promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer, where he is responsible for all aspects of our technology, development, and strategy. These moves will help drive further alignment around our interconnected retail strategy, which will allow us to enhance what we believe is the best experience in home improvement. Richard will talk to you in a few minutes about our guidance for the remainder of the year, but the first quarter certainly got us off to a great start.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

We're also encouraged by the continued strength we see in the business through the first two weeks of the second quarter, as spring is breaking more broadly across the U.S. Our team continues to focus on what is most important, our associates and customers. Our merchants, store and merch teams, supplier partners, and supply chain teams did an outstanding job delivering value and service to our customers throughout the quarter. I'd like to close by thanking them for their dedication and hard work. With that, let me turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Thank you, Ted, and good morning, everyone. I wanna start by also thanking all of our associates and supplier partners for their ongoing commitment to serving our customers and communities. As you heard from Ted, during the first quarter, we continued to see outsized demand for home improvement projects and strong execution from our teams and supplier partners. Turning to our comp performance during the first quarter, 11 of our 14 merchandising departments posted positive comps, led by plumbing, building materials, millwork, and paint. During the first quarter of this year, we saw double-digit negative comps in our seasonal departments due to the late arrival of spring. Appliances posted slightly negative comps. Adjusting for a shift in event timing, appliance comps would have been positive for the quarter. Excluding seasonal categories, we are thrilled with the broad-based strength across the business and healthy project demand.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

During the first quarter, our comp average ticket increased 11.2%, and comp transactions decreased 8.4%. The growth in our comp average ticket was driven primarily by inflation across several product categories, as well as demand for new and innovative products. Comp transactions reflect the late start to spring and the anniversary-ing of stimulus. On a two and three year basis, both comp average ticket and comp transactions were healthy and positive. Inflation from core commodity categories positively impacted our average ticket growth by approximately 240 basis points during the first quarter, driven by inflation in lumber, copper, and building materials. Lumber prices remained volatile during the quarter. As an example, framing lumber peaked at approximately $1,300 per 1,000 board feet during the first quarter, before falling over $400 to approximately $900.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Big-ticket comp transactions, or those over $1,000, were up 12.4% compared to the first quarter of last year. We saw big ticket strength across many pro heavy categories like pipe and fittings, gypsum, and fasteners. During the first quarter, pro sales growth outpaced DIY. On a three-year comp basis, growth with both our pro and DIY customers was consistent and strong. We're encouraged by the momentum we are seeing with our pros, and they tell us that their backlogs are strong. During the quarter, we saw many of our customers turn to pros to help them with larger renovation projects. This can be seen in the double-digit comp performance of our building materials and plumbing departments, as well as in certain kitchen and bath categories like in-stock kitchens, tubs and showers, and countertops.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

We also saw double-digit growth in our kitchen and bath installation business. This underscores the strength of project demand we are seeing across the business. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased 3.7% during the first quarter. We are very pleased with the performance of our digital assets as we delivered the highest sales dollar volume in our company history. For those customers that chose to transact with us online during the first quarter, more than 50% of our online orders were fulfilled through our stores, a testament to the power of our interconnected retail strategy. As you heard from Ted, we are very excited about the innovation we are introducing across the business. We continue to lean into products that simplify the project, saving our customers time and helping them take on more jobs. One example is our Viega ProPress line of plumbing.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Your plumbers can create a watertight copper connection in 60% less time than a traditional copper solder job. Viega ProPress fittings require no flame and work in wet conditions applications. Viega is the market leader in this space and is exclusive to The Home Depot in the big box channel. In paint, working with Masco and PPG, we have put together a formidable pro paint lineup that is resonating with our pro painters. Masco's Behr-formulated pro-specific offering continues to perform well in our stores. In the first quarter, we added PPG Speedhide series. This pro-specific paint that is spec'd in the vast majority of multi-housing and large commercial jobs, giving us an entry point with our pro painter for larger scale projects. This is now exclusive to The Home Depot in the big box channel. In spray paint, we launched PPG's Glidden MAX FLEX spray paint.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

PPG's proprietary industrial-based technology is uniquely flexible, covering and preserving the original look and feel of a wide range of surfaces, including leather and fabric. With Masco, we've expanded their exclusive offerings to spray paint, caulk, and sealants, as well as interior stains. Now, let's turn our attention to spring and the exciting lineup of products we have for our customers. We are thrilled to showcase our new product offerings across our seasonal categories. We are seeing an industry-wide shift from gas-powered to battery-powered mowers. Demand for cordless mowers has never been stronger, and our lineup of battery-powered mowers, including RYOBI's 80-volt zero-turn riding mower, Milwaukee's new M18 FUEL walk mower, DEWALT's FLEXVOLT walk mower, and Makita's LXT walk mower is unmatched. This lineup offers something for everyone, building on an ecosystem of innovative tools powered by the same battery platforms.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

In patio, we have continued to add optionality, and today, customers can create their perfect patio set to transform their outdoor living space through an enhanced online experience. We expanded our assortment of grills. We're particularly excited about our new Traeger Timberline XL, which provides a larger cooking surface, easier maintenance, and a side burner to enhance your cooking needs. Our new Neevo by Nexgrill is the first propane-powered grill controlled via an app or your mobile device. The app displays timers, grill temperatures, and internal food temperatures, providing a consistent cooking experience for hours. We're also excited about our Live Goods program. Each year, our merchants provide our customers with new and improved varieties to enhance the overall garden experience. We've expanded our disease and drought-resistant products, offering superior performance.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

For example, Beacon Impatiens are disease-resistant, and our Easy Wave petunias now require less sunlight and last up to six weeks longer. Adding these new heartier plants allows our customers to have a vibrant and healthier garden for longer. Our Live Goods category looks incredible. We are ready for spring from everything from shrubs to a variety of flowers and edibles for every type of gardener. With that, I turn the call over to Richard.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, total sales were $38.9 billion, an increase of $1.4 billion or 3.8% from last year. During the first quarter, our total company comps were +2.2%, with positive comps of 12.9% in February, essentially flat in March, and -2% in April. Comps in the U.S. were +1.7% for the quarter, with positive comps of 12.5% in February, -0.3% in March, and -2.9% in April. Recall that March reflects the anniversarying of stimulus, and April was impacted by a delayed spring this year. Our results this quarter were once again driven by continued strength across the business.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Spring temperatures broke late in all our geographies, but in particular impacted some of our northern regions. In local currency, both Mexico and Canada posted comps above the company average. In the first quarter, our gross margin was 33.8%, a decrease of approximately 20 basis points from last year, primarily driven by supply chain investments and pressure from lumber. We continue to successfully offset significant transportation and product cost pressures while maintaining our position as the customer's advocate for value. During the first quarter, operating expense as a percent of sales remained essentially flat to last year at approximately 18.6%. We were pleased with our operating expense performance during the first quarter, which reflected planned increases in wage and planned rollout of investments designed to drive efficiency in our store environment.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Our operating margin for the first quarter was 15.2% compared to 15.4% in the first quarter of 2021. Interest and other expense for the first quarter increased by $36 million to $369 million, due primarily to higher long-term debt levels than one year ago. Our effective tax rate was 23.9% in the first quarter of both fiscal 2022 and 2021. Our diluted earnings per share for the first quarter were $4.09, an increase of 6% compared to the first quarter of 2021. Our total store count at the end of the quarter was 2,316, and selling square footage was 240 million sq ft. Unfortunately, during the quarter, we lost a store in San Jose, California, due to a fire.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Thankfully, no one was injured and all of our associates have been reassigned to other nearby stores, and the team has done a fantastic job continuing to serve our customers in the area. At the end of the quarter, inventories were $25.3 billion, up $6.1 billion compared to the first quarter of 2021, and inventory turns were 4.4x, down from 5.5x last year. This level of inventory reflects outsized demand for home improvement projects, actions taken to improve in-stocks, and the impact of the delayed start to spring. While our in-stock position is not back to pre-pandemic levels, it is the healthiest it has been since the pandemic began.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Turning to capital allocation, after investing in our business and paying our dividend, it is our intent to return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

As we have mentioned on previous calls, we plan to continue investing in our business with CapEx of approximately 2% of sales on an annual basis. We also plan to maintain flexibility to move faster or slower depending on the environment. During the first quarter, we invested approximately $700 million back into our business in the form of capital expenditures. During the quarter, we paid approximately $2 billion in dividends to our shareholders, and we returned approximately $2.25 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was approximately 45.3%, up from 45.1% in the first quarter of fiscal 2021. Now I will comment on our updated guidance for fiscal 2022.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

As you heard from Ted, we are very pleased with the strong performance we saw during the first quarter, which surpassed our expectations. Today, we are raising guidance for 2022. We now expect sales growth and comp sales growth of approximately 3% for fiscal 2022. We expect comps to be stronger in the first half of the year than the second half of the year. We expect our fiscal 2022 operating margin to be approximately 15.4% for the year, and we expect mid-single digit percentage growth in diluted earnings per share compared to fiscal 2021. While a number of uncertainties remain, we feel confident that we will be able to continue to manage through a dynamic environment while growing faster than our market and delivering exceptional shareholder value.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Thank you for your participation in today's call, and Christine, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Equity Research Analyst - Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail at UBS

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Understanding that your overall results were very strong, are you seeing any signs that either inflationary pressure, rising interest rates, or simply home improvement fatigue are starting to have a negative impact on the business? Does it give you pause that comp transactions were down high single digits in the quarter as maybe a leading indicator that the business could soften from here?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Thanks, Michael. Good morning. A lot in that question. You know, as we said, we had a great Q1 in comp-to-comp from last year. As you recall, Q1 last year was our highest first quarter sales and our highest comp at 31% in a very long time. As we went into this year, we were understandably conservative as to how we thought Q1 would pan out. In fact, we saw that the consumer is very engaged, the pro is very strong, and we posted those results with very much delayed spring. In Q2, it's early, but we're off to a strong start. We also think that, you know, the fundamentals, I mean, these are all very short term in nature comments, but the fundamentals for home improvement remain incredibly supportive.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

When you look at inflation and interest rates and any fatigue, if I take those in order, you know, inflation is definitely higher than we thought. If you recall, last year, we thought we'd have about 5% growth in ticket. We're seeing obviously much higher than that with 11% in ticket. A lot of that is inflation-driven, but our customers are resilient. We are not seeing the sensitivity to that level of inflation that we would have initially expected. On interest rates, and Richard can talk a little bit more about interest rates and housing, but we have not seen that impacting our business in the nature of housing. Again, Richard will cover in greater detail. Then the fatigue we're not seeing at all.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

You know, we look at PCE and shifts in PCE, and while we are seeing some shift to services in general, we're not seeing a big shift out of home improvement, and we're not seeing fatigue with our customers given repair remodeler intent and activity still tracking at the highest levels that we've recorded. Then lastly, on transactions, we do always look for a balance of ticket in transactions. Again, with these inflation rates, it's a very unique year, and inflation in ticket is higher than norm for sure. Again, the consumer's hanging in there. Richard, why don't you touch on the interest rates?

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Sure.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

To start with who our customer is, you know, you need to keep in mind our customers are homeowners. Virtually all sales to our pro customers are on behalf of a homeowner, and over 90% of our DIY customers are homeowners as well. Let's talk about home improvement demand and what drives it. Over our history, we've seen that home price appreciation is the primary driver of home improvement demand. When your home appreciates in value, you view it as a smart investment, and you spend more on it. Let's look at what's happened to home prices. We've seen appreciation of over 30% over the last two years. In fact, home equity values over the last two years have increased by 40% or over $7 billion just in the last two years.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

The homeowner has never had a balance sheet that looks like this. They've seen the price appreciation, and they have the means to spend. In surveys, our customers tell us that their homes have never been more important, and their intent to do projects of all sizes has never been higher. Our pros say the same thing about their backlogs. Let's talk about interest rates. I think it's important to remember that our addressable market is the 130 million housing units occupied in the U.S., plus probably, call it 40 million-50 million more in Canada and Mexico. Of those 130 million housing units, on any given year, only about 4%-5% are sold. That means that over 95% of our customers are staying in place. They're not shopping for a mortgage.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Nearly 40% of those homes are owned outright. Of those who have mortgages, about 93% of those mortgages are fixed rate. When you think about our addressable market, the vast majority aren't really paying attention to mortgage rates. What's interesting about that is what we've heard when they do look at moving, they're actually more and more tempted to stay in their low fixed rate mortgage and remodel their home instead. These low locked in mortgages are probably a benefit to home improvement.

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Equity Research Analyst - Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail at UBS

That's all very helpful information. In light of that, I hate to follow up with such a negative question, but out of an abundance of conservatism, I'll ask that historically, Home Depot has talked about a 20 basis point margin change for every 1% increase or potentially decrease in its same store sales, recognizing that the environment hasn't necessarily been business as usual for quite some time. If we do wanna take a conservative expectation on the overall macro, would it be reasonable to think that if comps were to decline 1%, that would translate to a 20 basis point decline in operating margin?

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Equity Research Analyst - Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail at UBS

Has the businesses advanced so much over the last few years through the deployment of technology, a greater sophistication of supply chain and other factors that perhaps the deleverage wouldn't be as significant moving forward as it might have been in past?

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Well, Michael, first, we operate an activity-based model with respect to payroll, which is our largest operating cost, and so that naturally decreases as volume decreases. More importantly, we operate with a degree of financial flexibility in our P&L, and that financial flexibility allows us to manage as we think is appropriate in any given environment. We have room to manage, and we're confident that we can take share in any environment and manage this P&L wisely, you know, per the environment. With respect to any old benchmarks we may have given, we're beyond that. We have financial flexibility in our model, and again, we would flex to sort of meet the circumstances as we would see them.

Michael Lasser
Michael Lasser
Equity Research Analyst - Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail at UBS

That's helpful. Thank you so much, and good luck.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Simeon Gutman
Simeon Gutman
Managing Director and Retail Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

Hey, everyone. My first question is if we could talk a little more detail around the intent and the backlog that was just mentioned. Curious if, you know, you're seeing demand come through because supply was constrained, there's some pent-up projects versus what the backlog or pipeline continues to build.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Well, I think you can just start with some survey results. These are public, and these are published by the National Association of Home Builders. This is a survey that goes back to 2001. The survey, if you'll bear with me, just sort of says, are you optimistic or pessimistic? 50 being kind of the median mark here. For the 20 years up to 2020, that optimism index never got above a 58. Today it stands at an 86. That is the sentiment of the remodeler. With respect to backlog, that is also surveyed. That number over the past 20 years never got above a 64. Today it stands at an 84. Both of those sentiment numbers are all-time highs.

Simeon Gutman
Simeon Gutman
Managing Director and Retail Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

Fair enough. Maybe a follow-up. You mentioned home price appreciation being the most important lever. It looks like the home prices in Canada are starting to turn a bit, and the business seems to be holding up well. Can you talk about if, you know, if that relationship holds or if the same dynamic, the macro conditions for the customer exists, and that's why the business is sort of breaking away from that trend?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Yeah, our Canadian business, I'm not as up to speed, Simeon, on the Canadian stats that Richard just went through for the U.S., but our Canadian business is in terrific shape. I mean, remember, they had much more significant lockdowns last year. Ontario, in particular, our stores were closed in the first quarter, and we had curbside pickup only. The business is very, very strong. I don't have as much detail on the relationship with home prices.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Well, let's, you know, let's just sort of reflect on something. Last Q1, as a company, we reported a 31% comp. Canada was higher than that. We had a tougher comp in Canada, and this quarter, our comp in Canada was higher than company average.

Simeon Gutman
Simeon Gutman
Managing Director and Retail Equity Research at Morgan Stanley

I see.

Michael Baker
Michael Baker
Managing Director / Senior Research Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Baker with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Baker
Michael Baker
Managing Director / Senior Research Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Okay, two. One, simply, can you just quantify, if there's any way to quantify the weather impact in the late spring? How much did that hurt April? What should we expect that continue to contribute into May? Then I'll have a follow-up question.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

For the quarter, Michael, we think it was about 1% the negative impact to comp sales in Q1.

Michael Baker
Michael Baker
Managing Director / Senior Research Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Presumably, most of that occurs in April. Is that fair to say?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Yes. Yeah, because February, you know, it's not spring anywhere, and it's our lowest volume month. Yes, that's April driven. As Richard said in his notes, March was more of a stimulus impact as well as a weaker spring in the South. Then as you know, started to move toward northern markets, particularly cold weather in April and for the quarter, 1%.

Michael Baker
Michael Baker
Managing Director / Senior Research Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Yep. We've all felt that cold weather up here in the Northeast, although it's getting better now. I also wanted to follow up on the home price appreciation question. You know, we've all looked at this for many years, and I think most people get that, you know, home price appreciation is that important. How concerned are you that higher interest rates eventually slow down existing home sales? We've seen that decline, you know, three or four months in a row, such that the record home price appreciation that we're seeing, you know, eventually has to slow down, particularly as the Fed keeps raising rates. How big of a concern is that as you think about the rest of the year?

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Well, I think we're in a unique position now in recent housing history, where we have built a chronic shortage of housing units in the US consistently and steadily for the last 10 years. You know, some economists assume that shortage is a little less than 2 million. You hear numbers as high as 4 million. You know, if you take other estimates of what will likely be built, we're looking at least five years, if not seven or eight years, before we could actually get back to a point of equilibrium. We believe that supply and demand are going to be the main drivers of support for home price appreciation, and we know that chronic undersupply is going to be a condition for quite some time.

Michael Baker
Michael Baker
Managing Director / Senior Research Analyst at D.A. Davidson

Okay. Yeah, thanks. We appreciate your comments on that.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Christopher Horvers
Christopher Horvers
Senior Analyst at JPMorgan

Thanks. Good morning. So on the seasonality, sort of lens as you think about the year, you mentioned shifting of the bathtub effect in the second quarter. It looks like the guide doesn't assume that this above average seasonality that you saw in the first quarter, despite a late spring, you know, holds. You're actually sort of degrading the seasonality going forward. I guess the two questions, are you expecting a full bathtub effect into the second quarter? And then is there any reason why you wouldn't think normal seasonality could hold through the back half?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Morning, Chris. Yeah, I would—we certainly don't think it's gonna degrade. I would say posting the results that we posted with a very cold and wet spring, you know, certainly exceeded our expectations. As commented earlier, we haven't generally raised guidance after the spring because we say, you know, bathtub effect and too early into Q2 at the time of this call to make a determination. The first quarter, you know, beat our expectation by such an extent, even with the poor weather, we felt, you know, necessary to raise to the 3% for the year. We haven't taken as specific of a view of Q2. I mean, we know at least the 1% is gonna flow into Q2.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

We generally get back all of our spring sales in a Q2, even tracking back to the two or three worst early spring since I've been at Home Depot. It is still just so early and our largest weeks are ahead of us, so we don't wanna get, you know, too far over our skis, but we're certainly not anticipating a degradation of that normal bathtub effect.

Christopher Horvers
Christopher Horvers
Senior Analyst at JPMorgan

Got it. My follow-up question is: a number of vendors have indicated, you know, more price increases are coming. Can you talk about, you know, how much of the ticket increase was inflation? How are you expecting inflation to play out over the year? Like, we just sort of flatten out as we lap through more price over the next year. Do you expect units to turn positive as the year progresses? Thank you.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Right. I'll start, and then Jeff will give a little bit more detail. Yes, as I mentioned earlier, inflation is higher than we had expected to the extent about two times. The 11-odd% ticket was the vast majority of that was inflation-driven. It is impacting transactions, but as we said, not to the extent that we would have thought. That's all good. We have taken you know costs this year and there is more on the table. Transportation you know we've just finished up our ocean contracts. That's a global contract cycle that goes into effect in May. Those are in place for the next 12 months. Those are certainly higher on a contract basis from 2021.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

We think inflation doesn't go up necessarily from where we are, but that it would hold steady at this, call it, double digit, low 10-ish% in our product categories through the balance of the year. In terms of the impact on transactions, we're gonna have better transaction results in Q2, just given spring. When you think of the number of transactions in our garden business in the springtime, that's just a tremendous amount of transactions, and we feel very good that we'll get those in Q2. Then lumber was, it's been on a bit of a seesaw and was high on average to last year in Q1, and we saw that in negative transactions in lumber.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Now we're down quite a bit, and we're down about 35% in lumber prices year-over-year. We expect to pick up in Q2, in particular, in lumber activity. In terms of the balance in the year and how we think about managing through this, I'll have Jeff provide some more color.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Yeah. Thank you, Ted, and good morning. To Ted's comments, we are managing through an inflationary environment about two times what we expected in the first quarter, and we see some continuation of that. You know, we are working with our supplier partners on managing through this inflationary environment. We've had long-standing relationships with many of our suppliers, and it's a partnership to understand the ongoing complexities of the inflation we're seeing. What we are doing is we are still the customer's advocate for value in our business. If you look at the value that we're offering across the spring categories, across the entire business, it is exceptional. If you look at the project business, we are pleased with what we're seeing in project-related demand, inclusive of some of the inflation that we have experienced across the organization.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Again, as the customer's advocate for value, we have the tools and the capabilities to manage our broader portfolio strategy and manage the inflationary environment. Very pleased with the partnership across the business, to manage this inflationary environment.

Christopher Horvers
Christopher Horvers
Senior Analyst at JPMorgan

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist. Please proceed with your question.

Scot Ciccarelli
Scot Ciccarelli
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Truist Securities

Good morning, everyone. With the One Home Depot supply chain strategy, you guys are effectively moving into some new markets or certainly expanding your presence in certain verticals and expanding your TAM. Is there any way to potentially size the impact that some of these new markets are having on your results, be it, you know, whether it's MRO, large pros, et cetera, maybe places where you weren't as competitive just a couple years ago?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

You know, generally speaking, we are excited about what we're building out in terms of capability and our ability to go after the repair and remodel or planned purchase occasions that we haven't necessarily been able to in the past. When you start thinking about contribution to results, we're building an ecosystem here for the pro. It's not just about fulfillment and delivery. It's about an online experience that we think is second to none that's seeing incredible traction over the very short term. You know, we have a relationship with our pros in the store that we think is second to none. Hector, I'll turn to you for a second with some detail.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Again, with respect to results, we're quite pleased that we grew by $40 billion over the last two years. We're really pleased that we were able to comp-to-comp and enter into a second quarter, you know, so far with two strong weeks. I think over the coming years, you're gonna see every element of our model add up to our ability to take market share in any environment. Hector, maybe you'll talk a little bit about the.

Company Representative at The Home Depot

Yeah, Richard and Scott, we are building capabilities to attract more of the pro plan purchase. Every one of those pro plan purchase help us pull a lot of the other occasions out of our stores. When Richard talks about the ecosystem, it is about enabling capabilities across all channels to remove friction from the transactions and the experiences from our pros in every instance. We are super encouraged from the early signs that we're seeing on the commercialization of the supply chain investments that we're making, and the team is super encouraged and involved and engaged.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Scot, I would add on the MRO piece in the TAM, we couldn't be happier with the combination of our legacy Interline HD Pro business with HD Supply. You know, not only did we combine the one and two players in that industry, but HD Supply had additional verticals that our business didn't participate in. We think the TAM in that MRO market essentially doubled to about $100 billion, and we still sit with less than 10% share. The capabilities that we're building, combining those two businesses, we're well on our way of combining sales forces, getting customers oriented to one legacy customer sales force or the other. We're beginning to integrate the supply chains.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

What we're able to do now in MRO for multifamily housing is incredibly robust. Then new verticals, hospitality in particular, as travel has come back and the hospitality occupancy rates are going up, that business is just booming. We love our position in MRO and the verticals we're in, and Shane O'Kelly and his team are just doing a great job with that business.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

I think just to the TAM point, you know, we talked about the 130 million households in the U.S. About 30 million of those households actually occupy multifamily dwellings. That HD Supply acquisition opened up that TAM for us and is a unique attribute of The Home Depot.

Company Representative at The Home Depot

Excellent. Thanks a lot, guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Karen Short with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Karen Short
Karen Short
Managing Director at Barclays

Hi. Thanks very much. Wondering if you could just give a little bit more color on puts and takes for 2Q to 4Q with respect to gross margin and SG&A, I guess, in the context of assuming inflation remains at the current level. Then also a bit more context on how you think traffic and ticket will shake out for the full year. I have one other question.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Sure. For the year, we believe that gross margin, if you just sort of stay mix neutral, gross margin will see slight pressure from the investments we're making in One Supply Chain. Those have been planned all year, and we've expected that for a while. With respect to operating expense leverage, as we have taken our sales guidance up, we've also raised our operating margin guidance. That reflects the operating expense leverage we expect to generate on those incremental sales. With respect to ticket and transaction, we assume that comps in the back half are positive. If inflation persists for the year, persists at current levels, we expect ticket could be in the range of 10%-12% for the year, offset by transactions to net out to a 3% comp for the year.

Karen Short
Karen Short
Managing Director at Barclays

I guess the question on that, my follow-up with that would be, I mean, you know, investors are focused on your too, one-year, two-year, three-year traffic trends. You know, I appreciate there's a labor efficiency component with, you know, negative traffic to some extent. At what point does the traffic on, you know, a multiyear basis maybe start to concern you?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Well, this is definitely a unique year for sure in our ticket and transaction dynamic. As I stated earlier, we do look for a balance between ticket and transaction. We usually plan that growth will come from more or less an equal mix of ticket and transaction. With the two fundamental things going on, Karen. One, we're to your point on, you know, two and three-year stacks, we're comping off the $40 billion of sales growth that Richard commented on, and in Q1 at a 31% comp, you know, the highest comp in the longest time at The Home Depot. To comp that, you know, we didn't plan on to comp that is a huge positive. Now, the balance isn't the norm for sure.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Again, a unique year with this level of inflation, you know, at 10-odd%. The customer's engagement is much more resilient than we would have thought. You know, that's why we knew the inflation going into the year, and we knew the potential impact to transactions. The level of activity in our space, and, you know, we've talked about the backlog and the intents, is really helping offset that in the consumers staying more engaged. Now, as we lap through these extraordinary comps from the $40 billion of growth and certainly hopefully lap through the inflation, we would get back to the balance that we would certainly prefer.

Karen Short
Karen Short
Managing Director at Barclays

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Zachary Fadem with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Zachary Fadem
Zachary Fadem
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst - Retail Hardlines, Broadlines and Restaurants at Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning. Ted, following up on your comment that Q1 beat your expectations, could you talk about the extent that was Pro-driven versus DIY or other pockets of your business? As you think about the second half of this year, to what extent do you incorporate stable Pro trends, and could they offset a more variable DIY if the macro or inflationary environment softens from here?

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Sure. You know, I would start by saying, you know, even our Pro traffic is consumer-driven, right? I mean, all projects, you know, fundamentally on the home, we certainly have trades in our business, buying product for servicing, you know, other spaces than the home. The vast majority of our activity is supportive of the home. Whether it's a consumer buying themselves or a pro, you know, the pro is buying ultimately for a consumer's home. With that being said, though, you know, yes, Pro is stronger than we would have thought. I mean, that's where the beat came from. Our Pro is incredibly strong and we're so optimistic of, as Hector outlined, the ecosystem we're building. We just continue to gain momentum with that Pro customer.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

You know, certainly offset more of an as-expected consumer. When you think of, you know, spring as a consumer business in terms of garden, we don't have large penetrations in pro in our garden business, so that is consumer-driven. Then the stimulus is really impacting the consumer. I mean, we all have heard plenty of anecdotes about consumers getting their check last March and, you know, truly going to buy, you know, a new power tool or a new lawnmower. That was what was unique about the consumer. In terms of the trend over time, you know, not just the, you know, the intent that Richard talked about in the ecosystem that Hector talked about.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

What we love with our Pro customer and the confidence we continue to build in what's happening is when we look at our comps with our Pro customers, we get a stronger progression of comps with the Pro from what we call an unplanned purchase in store, which is still a strong comp. Sequentially, going up to higher and higher comps as we get to a planned delivered purchase. Think of that Pro who's just coming to the store to do cash and carry and an unplanned purchase versus one who we know is staging out a project and getting that project delivered. The sequence of comps of that engagement gets higher and higher and higher, with the highest being planned delivered.

Ted Decker
Ted Decker
Chair, President, and CEO at The Home Depot

Also, when you think about the engagement with our loyalty models and our engagement with our sales forces, again, while still positive, our pros who are not in our loyalty program buying a cash-and-carry unplanned purchase, while positive, that is the lowest comp going all the way through to a pro who's in the loyalty program, who's purchasing with us on an interconnected basis and is managed by an outside sales contact. Those, by far, have the highest comp within the pro. So we just love this ecosystem that we're building, the engagement that we're starting to see, the sequential strength of comps as these pros get more engaged with us. Yes, we think those pro trends are gonna keep powering the business.

Zachary Fadem
Zachary Fadem
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst - Retail Hardlines, Broadlines and Restaurants at Wells Fargo

Thanks, Ted. That's helpful. For Richard, with your inventory growth outpacing sales growth for the past 4 quarters by a pretty wide margin, how do you think about your position here in terms of having enough inventory or too much inventory? With the slower start to spring that you've called out, how should we think about the potential impact of higher promo on the gross margin line?

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

First of all, we took steps, as Ted had said, earlier in the call, to invest in improving our in-stock position. While we're not quite where we were pre-pandemic, we are the healthiest we've been in the last few years. If you think about that pull forward of inventory, making sure that we landed inventory early, because in this business, customer service starts with being in stock, and you also consider the impact of a late spring, that really makes up about half of the increase in inventory, and the other half is simply the impact of inflation. As we think about this through the year, obviously, as spring kicks in, we'll see that inventory begin to reflect the seasonality. You know, we work hard.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Our merchants and our supply chain team and our vendor partners work hard to make sure that we have an advantaged position.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Yeah, just to-

Zachary Fadem
Zachary Fadem
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst - Retail Hardlines, Broadlines and Restaurants at Wells Fargo

Thanks for the time.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

Just to comment on the promotional activity. We did shift an appliance event into May, driven by the Easter fall in mid-April. As I commented, thrilled with the performance of our appliance business as we finish the event in May. At this point, we don't focus on promotions at all. Our focus is providing everyday value for our customers. You know, that has been multiple years of progression, and we're thrilled with the value we're providing every single day in terms of being priced right every day, driving great innovation, and driving a great experience for our customers.

Zachary Fadem
Zachary Fadem
Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst - Retail Hardlines, Broadlines and Restaurants at Wells Fargo

Thanks for the time.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Steven Zaccone
Steven Zaccone
Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Retail/ Broadlines and Hardlines at Citi

Great. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe a follow-up about consumer spending toward the home, since it's been discussed in detail here. Clearly, you're seeing strong demand from ongoing projects. I think investors are trying to grapple with the fact that home spending may slow at some point because of the macro, but the home also has increased importance post-pandemic. What's your take on that debate? Do you think that makes home improvement spending more recession-resistant than it's been in the past?

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Well, you know, we really just have to look at the health of our customer today, which is strong. We also have to listen to our customer. Those same surveys, you know, where the Pro survey, there's also one with respect to consumer intent to do projects. Homeowner intent to do projects of small, medium, and large sizes has never been higher than right now.

Steven Zaccone
Steven Zaccone
Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Retail/ Broadlines and Hardlines at Citi

Got it. Very helpful. Just shifting, could you talk about capital allocation priorities if the macro environment were to get a bit choppier? How do you balance capital investment, share buyback, and the potential for M&A? I guess specific to M&A, it's been 18 months since you did the HD Supply acquisition. Would you be open to additional M&A in the next few years to reach your higher TAM? How best to think about the criteria?

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

Well, with respect to capital allocation, we generate strong free cash flow, and so have returned significant capital to shareholders over the last decade plus. With respect to CapEx and investment in the business, we take a long-term view. We are always going to invest ahead of the customer. We are always looking years ahead to make sure that we build the best customer experience in home improvement. That would likely be our stance, but we always have to take circumstances into consideration, and we do that in any event.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

On M&A, you know, we've always maintained an active strategic business development group, and they're always looking in the marketplace for companies, you know, really regardless of size, generally on the smaller size that can add capabilities. You've heard us talk about, you know, some various data shops we've acquired. Certainly the larger acquisition of HD Supply helped us into a market space. That is an ongoing review that we're actively looking at capabilities in market spaces that an acquisition can help accelerate our development in that space.

Steven Zaccone
Steven Zaccone
Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Retail/ Broadlines and Hardlines at Citi

Great. Thank you very much.

Isabel Janci
Isabel Janci
VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at The Home Depot

Christine, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question will come from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

Chuck Grom
Chuck Grom
Managing Director at Gordon Haskett

Hey, good morning. Thanks for fitting me in. Great results and congrats. On the inflation front, curious if you're seeing any unit demand destruction as you've been taking retails higher or if there's any signs of trade down in the basket. Walmart called that out this morning, and I know your basket's obviously very different than theirs. Just wondering if you're seeing anything on that front.

Jeff Kinnaird
Jeff Kinnaird
EVP of Merchandising at The Home Depot

No. Chuck, good morning. We're seeing no trade down in the environment, and we're thrilled with the innovation that we're offering to our customers. Ted commented, as I commented earlier, we're seeing trade up for innovation. We're seeing a lot of activity around our consumers looking to improve their homes, to adopt new innovations. I talked about the electrified lawnmower business and the opportunity there. That's just one example of many examples of trade up. Then on the project business, we're seeing great demand, as we commented earlier on the project business, both for the Pro and for the consumer.

Chuck Grom
Chuck Grom
Managing Director at Gordon Haskett

Okay. That's great to hear. One for Richard. Can you flesh out the expectation for comps in the front half to be better than the second half? If I look at your compares on a three-year geo stack, they're pretty consistent. Just wondering if you're being conservative there, or I guess the expectation for the trend to slow a little bit in the last six months of the year.

Richard McPhail
Richard McPhail
EVP and CFO at The Home Depot

It's early. You know, what I would say is we do expect Q2 to be the highest comp quarter of the year and expect the first half to be higher than the second half, but we do expect positive comps through the year.

Chuck Grom
Chuck Grom
Managing Director at Gordon Haskett

In the back half. Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Ms. Janci, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Isabel Janci
Isabel Janci
VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer at The Home Depot

Thank you, Christine, and thank you everybody for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our second quarter earnings call in August.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

Executives
    • Isabel Janci
      Isabel Janci
      VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer
    • Jeff Kinnaird
      Jeff Kinnaird
      EVP of Merchandising
    • Richard McPhail
      Richard McPhail
      EVP and CFO
    • Ted Decker
      Ted Decker
      Chair, President, and CEO
    • Company Representative
Analysts
    • Christopher Horvers
      Senior Analyst at JPMorgan
    • Chuck Grom
      Managing Director at Gordon Haskett
    • Karen Short
      Managing Director at Barclays
    • Michael Baker
      Managing Director / Senior Research Analyst at D.A. Davidson
    • Michael Lasser
      Equity Research Analyst - Hardlines, Broadlines and Food Retail at UBS
    • Scot Ciccarelli
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Truist Securities
    • Simeon Gutman
      Managing Director and Retail Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
    • Steven Zaccone
      Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Retail/ Broadlines and Hardlines at Citi
    • Zachary Fadem
      Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst - Retail Hardlines, Broadlines and Restaurants at Wells Fargo
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