Chipotle Mexican Grill Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 25, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to of Investor Relations and Strategy, Cindy Olson. Cindy, please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello, everyone, and welcome to our Q1 fiscal 2023 earnings call. By now, you should have accessed our earnings press release. If not, it may be found on our Investor Relations website at ir.chipotle.com. I will begin by reminding you that statements and projections made in this presentation about our future business and financial results constitute forward looking statements. These statements are based on management's current business and market expectations, and our actual results could differ materially from those projections in the forward looking statements.

Speaker 1

Please see the risk factors contained in our annual report on Form 10 ks and in our Form 10 Q for a discussion of risks that may cause our actual results to vary from these forward Our discussion today will include non GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP measures can be found via the link included on the presentation page in the Investor Relations section of our website. We will start today's call with prepared remarks from Brian Niccol, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer And Jack Hartung, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer, after which we will take your questions. Our entire executive leadership team is available during the Q and A session. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Cindy, and good afternoon, everyone. 2023 is off to a great Start with Q1 sales and margins ahead of our expectations. For the quarter, sales grew 17% to reach $2,400,000,000 Driven by a 10.9% comp. In store sales grew by 23% over last year. Digital sales represented 39% of sales.

Speaker 2

Restaurant level margin was 25.6 percent, an increase of 4.90 basis points year over year. Diluted EPS was $10.50 Representing 84% growth over last year and we opened 41 new restaurants including 34 Chipol Lanes. These results demonstrate that our focus on running great restaurants with exceptional food and exceptional people is driving performance. Additionally, we benefited from exciting new menu innovations, including fajita quesadilla and chicken al pastor. Transaction trends were positive throughout the quarter and the strength has continued into April.

Speaker 2

I would like to note that beginning this quarter, we are returning to our pre COVID practice of providing Annual comp guidance and anticipate comparable sales to be in the mid to high single digit range for the full year. We will also continue to provide quarterly comp guidance for the remainder of this year and anticipate 2nd quarter comps in the mid to high single digit range. Now I would like to provide an update on our 5 key strategies that will position us to win today while we create the future, which include: number 1, Running successful restaurants with a people accountable culture that provides great food with integrity while delivering exceptional in restaurant and digital experiences. Number 2, making the brand visible, relevant and loved to improve overall guest engagement. Number 3, amplifying technology and innovation to drive growth And productivity at our restaurants and support centers.

Speaker 2

Number 4, expanding access and convenience by accelerating new restaurant openings. And number 5, sustaining world class people leadership by developing and retaining diverse talent at every level. First, starting with our restaurants. We recently held our Field Leader Conference, which included all field leaders, team directors and regional vice presidents as well as leaders from our restaurant support center. Message was clear.

Speaker 2

We are focused on developing exceptional people and preparing exceptional food. It was truly inspiring to see over 6 100 highly motivated leaders aligned to deliver Chipotle standards of excellence and I'm proud of the progress our restaurant teams are making. We had another outstanding quarter for turnover with both hourly and salary metrics being some of the best I've seen in 5 years. The stability of crew and managers and a return to shoulder to shoulder training is helping to translate Project Square 1 into results. As our teams are getting more experience, we are continuing to see improvements in each of the project's square one focus areas, including throughput on the frontline, On time and accuracy on the digital make line, being prepped and ready with our delicious food and the overall customer experience.

Speaker 2

Specifically on throughput, while we are making progress, we see opportunities to do better. One area we are focused on is deployment on the front make line and the digital make during peak periods. We have noticed that when the digital make line gets busy, our managers tend to pull a crew member from the frontline to help, which is impacting throughput. We are currently testing changes to the smarter pickup times logic based on different sales and deployment levels in several markets and early results show that we are increasing throughput on the frontline And increasing on time on the digital make line without impacting sales. Leveraging our stage gate process, we will continue to fine tune our testing before rolling it We have also added an additional incentive for our teams as we recently rolled out digital tipping across our restaurants As part of our ongoing effort to enhance our crew member benefits, this will enable our teams to be rewarded for their efforts in preparing delicious food and providing a great experience for our guests.

Speaker 2

Overall, our focus on being brilliant at the basics and reestablishing our standards of excellence is resonating well. Our teams love to be held to a high standard because when you achieve it, you feel like you're part of a winning team with the ability to be rewarded through bonuses and growth within the organization. We are starting to feel this again in our culture and in our people. When operations are running better, it helps all other drivers of sales to perform better, such as menu innovation, Which brings me to our brand. As we often discuss, we continue to look for ways for the Chipotle brand to be more visible, more relevant and more loved.

Speaker 2

And we had a couple of very exciting new menu innovations that did just that. We responded to a real time opportunity to support our passionate TikTok Fans who wanted fajita veggies and Chipotle honey vinaigrette as options for our digital exclusive quesadilla. We work The 2 popular TikTok food reviewers who made the idea go viral at the start of the year and leveraged our strength in digital marketing and culinary to create an exciting new menu item utilizing all existing ingredients. The results have been outstanding. During launch, we nearly doubled our quesadilla business and had 2 of our top digital sales days of all time.

Speaker 2

We have decided to make this a permanent menu item as the addition of fajitas to our Quesadilla along with dipping it in a combination of our honey vinaigrette and sour cream is really delicious. The best part is that it's made of all existing ingredients, which limits additional complexity in our restaurants and we continue to see incremental quesadilla sales because of this launch. We also launched Chicken Al Pastor as a limited time offer. Al Pastor has been gaining mass appeal in recent years and we tapped into these consumer trends to offer our own spicy spin On Al Pastor with our freshly grilled chicken. As we mentioned last quarter, this is also operationally simple to execute as it is our existing adobo chicken Cooked on the plancha and then mixed in an al pastor marinade.

Speaker 2

This has allowed for an exciting new menu item while still maintaining our focus on Project Square 1. Additionally, this is the first time we've launched a new menu innovation globally as it was rolled out in the U. S, Canada and Europe. The launch has been a success and early indications show that it is Performing Pollo Asado, which was our most successful protein LTO ever. Turning to rewards, we now have 33,000,000 rewards members and we saw a nice pickup in enrollments As we rolled out FreePultway, which was designed to deliver a strong value proposition and attract new members to our transaction driving rewards program.

Speaker 2

Throughout the year, members will receive 10 personalized free rewards ranging from a side of guac to a bag of chips to a free fountain drink. In addition to driving enrollments, we also saw an increase in member engagement as Freeport Lake gained traction throughout the quarter. Shifting to amplifying technology and innovation. We continue to leverage technology to improve our in restaurant and digital experiences. As we mentioned last quarter, we began testing a new grill to improve the overall cooking process for our chicken steak.

Speaker 2

The grill is much faster, allows for more consistent execution and maintains our high culinary standards as it cooks the chicken and steak to perfection with the same sear and char. Feedback from our teams and our guests has been tremendous and we are currently in the process of rolling out the Grille to 10 additional restaurants as a part of further validation through our stage gate process. During the quarter, we also rolled out our advanced location based technology for our app, which allows for a more seamless process for scanning rewards As it prompts reward members to scan while they are waiting in line. This has resulted in more rewards members scanning for points in our restaurants, which drives further engagement in our rewards program. For digital orders, it also alerts app users when it appears they are ordering from or heading to the wrong location as one of our most frequent refund requests Due to guests arriving at the wrong restaurant.

Speaker 2

Since rolling out this feature, we have seen a meaningful reduction in those refunds. We are also investing in technology and innovation through our Next Fund to help us scale and advance our food with integrity mission. We recently announced 2 new investments including Local Line and 0 Acre Farms. Local Line is a leading local food sourcing platform connecting local producers with buyers and helping them digitize their operations and sell products. We believe Local Line will help Chipotle increase the amount of local food for our 3,200 restaurants.

Speaker 2

And 0 Acre Farms is a food company that is focused on healthy, Sustainable cooking oils made by fermentation that are more environmentally friendly. Additionally, we recently announced our new Responsible restaurant design, which includes features like rooftop solar panels, all electrical equipment and systems, LED lighting, cactus leather chairs and electrical vehicle charging stations at select locations. While the pilot will go through the normal stage gate process, we believe it will enable us to take successful elements and incorporate them into future restaurant formats. These investments and initiatives will help to further our purpose of cultivating a better world and reflects our commitment to inspire real sustainable change with a potential impact far beyond our company. And this brings me to expanding access convenience with a long term target of 7,000 restaurants in North America.

Speaker 2

We remain on track to grow new restaurants 8% to 10% per year for the foreseeable future with at least 80% including the The expansion of Chipotlanes adds additional convenience by adding our unique order pickup channel, which comes with a larger digital penetration driven by the order ahead business. In Canada, we opened our 1st Chipotlane in Ontario and we also expanded access and convenience with our recently announced partnership with SkipTheDishes, Which is Canada's largest food delivery network. Finally, new openings in small towns continue to be a success with the recent opening of a restaurant in a small town in California That had the 2nd highest opening day sales ever. In fact, within the last year, we had our top 5 openings in the company's history of which 4 were in small towns. I'll turn now to sustaining world class people leadership by developing and retaining diverse talent at every level.

Speaker 2

Our recent field leader conference was a time to celebrate the achievements and has been with Chipotle for 20 years. She is clearly doing a terrific job leading her patch of restaurants. However, what is even more incredible is that she has 2 sisters, 1, a team director who has been with Chipotle for 24 years and is consistently a top performer in her region and the other is a recently promoted field leader who has been with Chipotle for 18 years. Each has a unique story, but all three sisters started as crew members and said that Chipotle changed their lives for the better and gave them the ability to develop and grow others within the organization. When you combine our industry leading benefits with our tremendous growth, performance culture and then layer on top exceptional leaders Who will help to grow and develop our future leaders, Chipotle really is a special company.

Speaker 2

In closing, I want to thank our restaurant and support center teams for all their hard work in delivering Great quarter. Our focus on getting back to the basics and reestablishing Chipotle's standard of excellence is beginning to drive strong results. We will continue to develop exceptional people and prepare exceptional food and of course treasure our guests. In doing this, I strongly believe we can make Chipotle better than ever. With that, I will turn it over to Jack.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon, everyone. Sales in the Q1 grew 17% year over year to reach $2,400,000,000 as comp sales grew 10.9%. Restaurant level margin of 25.6 percent increased about 490 basis points compared to last year. Relative to our guidance, restaurant level margin benefited from leverage from higher Sales, labor efficiencies and lower avocado prices. Earnings per share was $10.50 representing 84% year over year growth.

Speaker 3

The Q1 did not have any material unusual expenses, so our GAAP earnings and non GAAP earnings are the same. As Brian mentioned, we're going back to our pre COVID practice of providing annual comp Guidance. We anticipate comps in the mid to high single digit range for the full year, assuming we do not see further deterioration in the macro environment. As a reminder, for Q2 and the full year, our comps stepped down when we lapped the menu price increase we took in late March of last year, and we anticipate We'll step down again when we lap the menu price increase we took in early August of last year. We'll continue to provide quarterly comp guidance for the remainder of this year And we anticipate comps in the 2nd quarter in the mid to high single digit range as the transaction trend for the Q1 has continued into April.

Speaker 3

I'll now go through the key P and L line items beginning with cost of sales. Cost of sales in the quarter were 29.2%, a decrease of about 180 basis points from last year. The benefit from last year's menu price increases and lower avocado prices more than offset a mix headwind from the garlic guajillo steak limited time offer, Which ended in mid February as well as higher prices across several items including queso, beans, rice, salsa and tortillas. For Q2, we expect our cost of sales to remain in the low 29% range. The mix benefit from the Chickena El Pastor limited time offer And lower dairy costs will be offset by higher costs in other areas, most notably avocados.

Speaker 3

We anticipate avocados to increase from Current favorable levels, which are some of the seasonally lowest we have seen in the past few years. Labor costs for the quarter were 24.6 Percent a decrease of about 170 basis points from last year. The benefit from sales leverage was partially offset by wage inflation. For Q2, we expect our labor cost to remain in the mid-twenty 4 percent range as continued labor inflation will be offset by leverage from seasonally higher sales. Other operating costs for the quarter were 15.3%, a decrease of about 110 basis points from last year.

Speaker 3

This decrease was driven by sales leverage and a decline in delivery expenses Due to lower delivery sales, partially offset by higher costs across several expenses, including natural gas and maintenance and repairs. Marketing promo costs for the quarter were 3.2 percent and in Q2 we expect marketing costs to step down to the mid-two percent range with the full year to come in right around 3%. In Q2, other operating costs are expected to be in the low 14% range. G and A for the quarter was $148,000,000 which includes $119,000,000 in underlying G and A, dollars 19,000,000 related to non cash stock compensation and $10,000,000 primarily related to payroll tax and then equity vesting and exercises, Higher performance based accruals and costs associated with our field leader conference. We expect our underlying G and A to be around $122,000,000 in Q2 And continue to grow slightly thereafter as we make investments in technology and people to support ongoing growth.

Speaker 3

We anticipate stock comp will be around $22,000,000 in Q2, Although this amount could move up or down based on our performance. We also expect to recognize about $4,000,000 related to performance based bonus accruals and payroll taxes and equity vesting Bringing our anticipated total G and A in Q2 to around $148,000,000 Depreciation for the quarter was $77,000,000 or 3.2 percent of sales. We expect depreciation to increase slightly each quarter as we continue to open more restaurants. Asset retirement stepped up to $8,400,000 in the quarter. This includes charges related to the replacement of equipment such as fryers, grills, rice cookers and other restaurant equipment as we have been more proactive under Project Square 1 in preventing ingredient outages.

Speaker 3

In the near term, we expect asset retirements to remain around this level as we continue to prioritize the guest experience and focus on great ops. Effective tax rate for Q1 was 22.5%, which benefited from option exercise and share vesting at stock prices above the grant values. We continue to estimate our underlying effective tax rate will be in the 25% to 27% range, though it may vary each quarter based on discrete items. Our balance sheet remains strong as we ended the quarter with nearly $1,500,000,000 in cash, restricted cash and investments with no debt along with a $500,000,000 untapped revolver. During the Q1, we repurchased $132,000,000 of our stock at an average price of $15.53 We increased our level of stock repurchases during the quarter when our share price fell with the overall market and we'll continue to opportunistically repurchase our stock.

Speaker 3

At the end of the quarter, we had $282,000,000 remaining under our share authorization program. We opened 41 new restaurants in the quarter, of which 34 headed Chipotlane. We remain on track to open between 255285 new restaurants this year with at least 80% including at Chipotle. We continue to experience challenges including utility installation, component and raw material shortages and permitting and inspection delays, which have extended our development timeline. And while we anticipate these challenges to persist throughout the year, our pipeline remains strong and expect to move toward the high end of the 8% to 10% of openings range once the timeline challenges subside.

Speaker 3

In closing, 2023 is off to a great start as our focus on strong operations and treasuring our guests Driving an improvement in sales and margin trends. While we are proud of the progress our teams have made in a short period of time, we recognize there is still opportunity for us to be even better. We believe that these efforts will position us to successfully navigate through macro uncertainty and more importantly strengthen our foundation for sustained long term growth. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

Operator

Today's first question comes from Dennis Geiger with UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Great. Thank you and congrats

Speaker 5

on the strong results. Brian, I want to ask a little bit more about throughput and the operations opportunity. Could you all frame up a little bit more some of the gains that maybe you're starting to see over this past quarter from Project Square 1 and some of the other initiatives that you spoke to? And Then kind of more importantly, just thinking about the opportunity from here based on initiatives currently in place and maybe even some of the technology You guys have highlighted in recent months. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So yes, look, Project Square 1 has been something we've been Working very aggressively for probably, I guess, now we're going on almost 9 months. And our operators have done a terrific job. Scott and the team Have really, I think, retrenched on getting back to the basics. And some of the things where we made great progress on are just being In stock with Great Culinary.

Speaker 2

We're experiencing too many times where we're out of guac, we're out of chips, we're out of chicken. So we've made tremendous progress on that front. We also have made a lot of progress on keeping both lines open from open to close. And Both of those reasons that we've improved dramatically are driven by, I think, more stability in the restaurant with better training and then holding people accountable to those standards. On the throughput side of things, we've made some progress on the frontline.

Speaker 2

We definitely made some progress as it relates Being on time and accurate digitally, but we still believe there's a lot of room for improvement. I think you heard in our prepared remarks, we're still working through, I would call it better deployment in managing during peaks so that we service the DML business Effectively without jeopardizing the service of the people that are right in front of us in the restaurant. So we still believe there's a lot of runway in front of us On grade throughput, we won't get the grade throughput though if we don't have great stability, grade culinary, having both lines open from open to close, And we've made tremendous progress on those foundational elements. So really proud of where the team has moved the organization, but I'm really optimistic about where they can get to.

Speaker 6

Appreciate that, Brian. And then

Speaker 5

just a quick follow-up on that. Just some of the tech stuff that maybe is still A little bit early days. How exciting is that for you and what that can do either for throughput as well as maybe some cost As we think about the potential there.

Speaker 2

Yes. No, thanks for the thanks. I forgot to answer that part of your question. So thanks for the reminder. Look, tremendously excited.

Speaker 2

That's why we're investing in it, right? These clamshell grills that we're rolling into 10 restaurants now Make the job easier, make the culinary better and make the culinary more consistently better. So that's a huge win for our customer and our employees. I think I've talked about this, it makes the cooking time dramatically go down. So chicken goes from 12, 13 minutes So 2, 3 minutes and you get perfect sear, perfect char, just really delicious Culinary.

Speaker 2

So that's a big unlock for us because the grill position is one of the hardest positions to train. So we can make that job easier We also free up more space on the plancha. It just eliminates any potential bottleneck for our future growth. Other thing that's a huge exciting one for us, it's a little further out is hyphen, we talked about this quite a bit, which is automating the digital make line. That will enable us to be even more accurate.

Speaker 2

I think probably go a little bit faster and I think give people more consistent experiences. So all these things are driving towards hopefully better guest experiences, but also a better work environment for employees. And then obviously with that, I think we'll be more efficient in both cases. So really excited about both initiatives. Obviously, the clamshell grills are a little bit closer in, piping is a little further Then we've got some other exciting initiatives on making our prep easier, right, frying chips or cutting and coring avocados.

Speaker 2

So we're making a lot of investment and we're going to continue to experiment. Not all of it will work, but I'm confident Having innovation in this space is a big unlock for our brand in the long run. Great. Thank you, Brian.

Operator

The next question comes from David Tarantino with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good afternoon. Jack, I have a question on the margin outlook. I think based on your guidance For the Q2 and what you delivered in the Q1, it looks like maybe the business is doing about a 26% restaurant margin For the first half of the year or at least that's what you expect. Is that the right run rate to think about for the year at the current sales levels? Or is there Anything maybe on the horizon in the back half that might, I guess surprise one way or another?

Speaker 3

Yes, David. In the first half, we're thinking about it right. We definitely expect our margins to step up from here. Q2 from a seasonal sales standpoint is a stronger quarter for us. We typically see higher margins in the second quarter.

Speaker 3

We also have relatively lower marketing in the second quarter. And there's some offsets like a little bit of inflation in the labor line, but still you're thinking about it right for the first half of the year. What's unknown in second half of the year is inflation. We're still thinking there's going to be continued labor inflation in the mid single digit. And even though our commodities have been largely tame or we've had some pluses and minuses that have largely offset each other, We think in the second half of the year, there's still the possibility of inflation.

Speaker 3

For example, we don't necessarily expect we'd love avocados to Remain at this level for the rest of the year, but we're being realistic and thinking that may not happen. And there may Still be inflation on beef. We haven't seen it really yet in what we buy, but there's that possibility as well. So it's really a wildcard about inflation. Inflation is tame in the second half of the year, that will obviously lead to even better margins in the second half of the year, but I think you're thinking about it right.

Speaker 7

Great. And then the follow-up is about your pricing philosophy and I don't know if Brian or Jack, you want to take this one, but I guess how are you currently thinking about your pricing as you think about the inflation you just Reference and I think now that you've rolled over the pricing in April, you're running one of the lowest year over year price increases in the industry. So just wondering how you're thinking about when you pull the lever on pricing again?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hey, David, this is Brian. We're staying the course on our approach to pricing, which is If we see inflation that warrants us needing to take additional pricing, we'll take it. I think we've now demonstrated We do have pricing power. We have a really strong brand.

Speaker 2

And we don't want to be in front Of the inflationary environment, but we also don't want to fall behind. So the good news is We're in a really strong position that when we're ready and we believe it's necessary to pull that pricing lever, we can and we continue to have a really strong brand To do it with, so we have not made any definitive plans on pricing for the balance of the year, but we're going to stay the course on the approach we've taken Over the last, I'd say, 18, 24 months. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Sara Senatore with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you. A question on labor and then as a follow-up on loyalty. Can you maybe talk a little bit, labor was I think better than you had expected or we had anticipated certainly. I was wondering if you could just talk, is that just because transaction growth was better? I don't know if you can decompose the same store sales for us.

Speaker 8

Is it the lower turnover? I'm just trying to understand where the improvement came from. And then the question on loyalty is, You mentioned kind of improved sign ups. I guess when I look at loyalty membership growth year over year, It looks like it's still kind of in that 20% range. Do you have any thoughts about how big that could be or what share of your unique customers You're seeing members of loyalty.

Speaker 8

Just trying to understand like sort of the run rate for that as a comp driver. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. I'll take the labor piece first, Sarah. First of all, it was most of the benefit that we saw Was sales driven in the quarter? We saw our transaction turn positive. We're still running menu price Increase compared to last year in about a 10% range.

Speaker 3

So when you have that kind of a flow through where transactions are flowing and menu prices are flowing as well, That was a significant benefit in the quarter. We did have some labor inflation, so that was an offset to it. And then we did see some efficiencies. So we did see Really for the first time, the labor scheduling tool we put into place last year was really starting to pay off. And then the 4th thing I would Normally this time of year as our sales begin to increase seasonally, that is a time where our labor tends to be more efficient.

Speaker 3

It tends To happen where the weather starts to get warmer, our sales start to grow, and our managers are trying to keep up on Schedules, but they end up basically driving a little bit efficiency. They always seem to be maybe a step or 2 behind. The good news is, as Brian mentioned, Operationally, we feel like the restaurants ran really well and we drove that additional labor efficiency.

Speaker 8

Thank you. And then to someone else? Yes.

Speaker 3

I was

Speaker 2

going to say on the loyalty, your question there. What we've definitely seen is we see people higher enrollments when we make it easier to be Engaged in the digital system. So a couple of things happened, right? I mentioned this in my earlier remarks. The team improved your ability to redeem Rewards by alerting you so that you don't forget to scan for them.

Speaker 2

We also improved your ability to end up Going to the right restaurant for your order, which was a big deal. That's one of the biggest misses we seem to have with customers where they didn't realize they're ordering from restaurant than where they were intending to go. So those types of things make the engagement easier for people, which then they stay in the program. And they're doing things like, FreePotle, the fajita quesadilla digital only just attracts New people to come into that space and that is what we want to do. We want to continue to have acquisition and then we want to dial up the Personalization and make it super easy to stay active and engaged because we know the more engaged you are, It plays out in more purchase frequency and higher ticket.

Speaker 2

So we'd love to get $33,000,000 to $40,000,000 I don't know where the ceiling is on this thing, We're going to continue to push towards getting as many people involved and then work very hard to turn it into a very personalized program that keeps them engaged.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks. I wanted to double click on that labor productivity stuff. In the past, you've talked about The number of orders you could do in a 15 minute block during those peak hours in the front make line, could you give us a sense of where you are now and where you think that can go Realistically over the next 1 or 2 years and then what that would mean to your sales if you got there?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I'll cover a couple of stats and then Brian you can add on as needed. First of all, in terms of the Q1, We did push past our 15 minute max compared to last year. So it Nice to see as our transactions turned positive during the quarter that we did push past last year. We actually at the end of the quarter and as we moved into April, We actually pushed paths where we were in the Q2 of last year as well.

Speaker 3

So we're seeing nice progress, but we're still in that low 20s In a range, David, we think we can get into the mid-20s. Mid-20s is comparable to what we were doing in 2019 Before the pandemic, if you adjust for the shift in our digital business. But beyond that, if you go back even a few years before that, we don't think there's any reason We can't get back into at least the high 20s or maybe even into the low 30s as well. Now that will take a few years, but we think this one project that Brian mentioned, this idea Of experimenting with how can we make sure that we've got basically the labor deployment and we've got the cadence of orders coming through to the DML To be set such that our teams can look confident, they can run both lines without feeling this pressure to pull from one line to the other. And typically what happens The DML, the orders are coming through pretty hot on the DML.

Speaker 3

There's a tendency to pull somebody from their frontline. And I think we're Basically seeing some good early results to tell us that we think there's going to be a way to break through and allow our teams to really execute it at a really high level on both lines. So I think that's potentially an unlock to get to some of these higher number 50 minute throughput figures.

Speaker 9

And if I look back a decade, your labor as a percentage of sales was in the 23 An area, I know a lot's changed in the labor market since then, but you're working on a lot of stuff, not just the focus and the training, And also the double sided grills and hopefully some breakthroughs with hyphen. Do you think you can get back there? Is that the sort of labor productivity that's possible that you can imagine over the next few years?

Speaker 3

It's theoretically possible. I think the one thing, David, that is different now is labor rates are much, much, much higher. And our menu pricing hasn't really stayed caught up all the way with the labor over the last few years. In fact, the biggest Move that we made in the Q2 of 2021, we basically raised wages by 15% and only raised prices by 4%. So we Basically offset the dollar value of that.

Speaker 3

We didn't try to protect the margins and certainly didn't try to protect the labor line at all. So I think there's been a bit of a dislocation Having said that, we do have a very efficient labor model. We do have a lot of investments in technology. We do have a lot of things that I could see over time as we grow to 3,000,000 volumes and then $3,500,000 volumes and as we Really create solutions so that our teams can be more efficient. I think it's certainly possible.

Speaker 3

It's not necessarily a goal of ours, but we could land there someday.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Lauren Silverman with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much. My question is on transactions. Great to see the positive transactions in the quarter. Within the mid single to high single digit Comp guide for the year, what are you embedding for transactions? And what do you see as the most meaningful drivers of positive traffic growth through the rest of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, I think the drivers for traffic growth are going to start with Project Square 1. We have to have great operational Execution. We have staff, trained, deployed, lines open, from open to close and giving people great experiences. So That's initiative number 1, to keep the traffic moving in the right direction.

Speaker 2

Obviously, doing things With our loyalty program or CRM database, we continue to talk about how we're on that journey of continuing to engage With our customers at another level, and we'll continue to invest in there, continue to experiment and continue to execute. And then as I've talked about these in our strategies, having the brand visible for what makes Chipotle truly unique, Its purpose around food with integrity, that resonates with our customers. It resonates with our team members because it's Our employees feel great about the food they're serving and our customers, this is the food they want to be eating. And a great examples of that are just Some menu innovation things that we've added, right? The fajita quesadilla, right now we're doing chicken al pastor.

Speaker 2

We made the fajita quesadilla program permanent. And we'll continue to do menu news. I think we've talked about this 1 or 2 a year. So It's the combination of all those things that will continue, I think, drive great traffic. And I don't want to walk past the fact that we continue to have Tremendous value scores.

Speaker 2

When you look at what you get from Chipotle for what you pay relative to your alternatives, We continue to give feedback that we're one of the best and whether you're comparing to other restaurants in our space or even the grocery store. So We love our value position and then we love the initiatives that we've got in place.

Speaker 10

Great. And just to follow-up on the traffic, where is it coming from? Is it primarily your existing customers, newer lapsed customers, anything Notable to share in terms of what you're seeing across income cohorts? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, fortunately, it's broad based. So we're seeing new customers come in, and we're also seeing existing customers increase their frequency. So The operational focus combined with kind of the marketing and menu innovations doing exactly what we would want it to do.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Charles with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. Brian, would you be able to talk a little more about what you attribute the sales strength in March April to that Your guidance in a time when the fast casual industry slowed. If you had to tease it out, just not only for specific numbers, of course, but just direction of magnitude. Is it the improved staffing?

Speaker 6

Was it chicken al pastor? Is it something else that perhaps externally we may not be appreciating?

Speaker 2

Look, I hate to just kind of repeat myself, but I'm going to repeat myself here, which is Project Square 1 and getting the foundational elements of Chipotle's execution back to Chipotle's standard of excellence, I can't emphasize enough how important that is. To have our digital make line open from open to close, to have ingredients on that line from open to close, To being staffed and trained on the frontline, so this should get people down the line really fast with exactly what they want. I can't emphasize enough how important that is because everything then builds from there, right? Our digital Personalization program builds on that. Our menu innovation builds on that.

Speaker 2

Talking about a brand with purpose builds on that. And I just think a myriad of things worked really well. The fajita quesadilla program was received really well. The chicken al Store program was received really well, but I know they wouldn't be as powerful if we didn't have Project Square 1 driving behind it. So I think we've talked about this a lot, Andrew.

Speaker 2

One of the things that makes Chipotle really special is its operational ability to achieve tremendous throughput With unbelievable culinary and unbelievable customization, we got to nail that. And we have to nail it both on the front line and in the digital experience.

Speaker 6

That's helpful. And one thing I wanted to revisit as well is just the international opportunity. Obviously, a lot of the The last 5 years has been domestically and recognizing how much strength you guys have domestically as well as opportunities to further Spread the domestic momentum and further enhanced domestic momentum, what do you need to see to lean in more on international, whether it's accelerating development, you enter new markets, Potentially testing out franchising, would love your thoughts as we think broader beyond Canada.

Speaker 2

Yes, sure. Well, I don't want to just walk by Canada. We're getting ready To expand into Alberta, we'll open probably 10 plus restaurants up there, which is like a 50% increase. So Anat and the team in Canada doing a fabulous job. We're going to continue to drive that market.

Speaker 2

Specifically on Europe, Jim and the team have done a great job. Our U. K. Business has got great momentum. Not surprising, there's a lot of inflation in the P and L there, And we have not priced for it, because we think a lot of it is temporary, and we're still establishing ourselves in Those markets.

Speaker 2

And I'm optimistic because if you can get the top line, usually The rest worked itself out. And we're putting into place the digital system, the operational excellence, the great culinary. So I'm optimistic

Speaker 3

we're going

Speaker 2

to get there. We're we'll move this thing out of the stage gate process, but we're going to take our time because You know what, we want to get it right. We don't want to just be fast. And that's what the team is after, and they're making great progress.

Speaker 6

Appreciate it. Thanks for the help.

Operator

The next question comes from John Ivankoe with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, thank you. I was hoping that if you could give a little bit more transparency in terms of especially the month of April, What's happening on a customer cohort level? I mean, are you seeing more higher income customers come? Are you seeing some lower income customers maybe coming a little Less are changing their order patterns. Some people would say, maybe attach is a little bit lower than it used to be or the consumers becoming a little bit more Price sensitive, but clearly that wouldn't be the case in the traffic numbers that you've talked about in April similar to the Q1.

Speaker 11

So Just wanted to get a sense if there's anything kind of happening beneath the surface that you can talk about or maybe some shifting Customer behaviors that actually might be positive for you longer term.

Speaker 2

Yes. Actually, two things happened for us. 1, the higher income consumer continued to And we came in a little bit faster pace from a frequency standpoint. And then we did see some, I would call it recovery in the lower income consumers. Still not all the way back to where it was, call it, a year ago, but an improvement from where it was over the last 6 months.

Speaker 2

We've seen nice improvements across all of our income cohorts and we continue to see great strength in the higher income.

Speaker 11

Interesting. And secondly, if I may, in terms of personalization on Chipotle Rewards, where are we in that journey? I mean,

Speaker 2

Because we're still very much in the early days on this. I think the teams have done a great job of turning the data into action Through, call it like CRM programs, and we're just starting to tip our toe into Personalization opportunity, and I think you're going to see really kind of CRM evolve into personalization at meaningful scale. So I think there's a lot of opportunity to be had on this space. I'm proud of the work that's been done to date and where we currently are. But Yes.

Speaker 2

I just think there is tremendous opportunity going forward, assuming we can get this personalization program right.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes. Thank you. Good afternoon. In the past, you've commented just on kind of delivery sales and what that looks For the quarter and then maybe also just kind of what the mix component of your same store sales for the quarter was. Would you be able to provide some color on that?

Speaker 2

Delivery is still right around 20%, right?

Speaker 3

Yes, like high teens.

Speaker 2

Yes, high teens. And we saw a nice strength in our digital business, a little bit of a rebound in the delivery business, more so probably in the marketplace. But We're feeling really good about how we're positioned in all those access channels, order ahead, delivery and coming into the restaurant.

Speaker 12

Okay. Thank you. And then, seeing how the Fajita Quesadilla did quite well, are there Kind of other opportunities like that where you lean into just existing menu items And do something akin to that. You've obviously done very well with kind of protein LTOs, but what else could be further afield that kind of continues on that success?

Speaker 2

Yes. Look, we are really delighted by how well the fakida case study performed For the very reason you just mentioned, right? It's all existing ingredients. It required some work on the digital side of things. But for the most part, this was a really easy one for operators to execute.

Speaker 2

So the team is doing some work to figure out are there other opportunities like that within our menu And maybe could apply for both the frontline and the digital line. I do believe there still are a lot of hidden gems within The Chipotle menu, and I think we have the opportunity to talk about them in a more visible way. So more to come. I know Chris and the team are working through can we find something that can perform as well as a freebie to Quesadilla Following those kind of requirements. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair. Please go ahead. Hey, good afternoon. I was hoping to get an update on Chipotlanes. I think around this time last year, you gave us some ROIC metrics on Chipotlanes versus non Chipotlanes and kind of the sales lift in digital mix component.

Operator

I'm just curious now that we're a year later, How those compare the Chipotlanes versus the non Chipotlanes? And then Jack, did you actually give us kind of what mix and traffic were in the quarter that would be helpful Thank

Speaker 3

you. Well, I'll do the first one or the second one first. And I'm surprised it didn't get asked before. So no, we didn't provide it yet.

Operator

I just thought I spaced out and missed it, Jack.

Speaker 3

We almost stuck in, Sharon. So, yes, listen, transactions were in kind of that 4 is kind of mid to low single digit. So a nice turnaround from what we saw in the Q4. Then we saw a check, The net check was 7%, so that gets you to that kind of 10.9%. And of the check, it was about a 10% Pricing and then a 3% mix.

Speaker 3

And just as a further clarification, the 10% pricing is about 8.5% is in our in store And our order ahead business. And then on top of that, there's a 1.5% for delivery. And then on Chipotlane, Sharon, largely the same. I mean, Chipotlane still perform higher from a sales standpoint, higher from a margin standpoint and then higher from a return standpoint. I think we have mentioned in the past, The comparisons aren't as great anymore.

Speaker 3

So in other words, a few years ago, we would open up restaurants that could have a Chipotlane, But didn't as we were kind of executing the strategy and today when we have 80%, 85% of our restaurants have a Chipotle lane, the 15% or 20% that don't Can't have one, meaning it's an urban location, it's an inline location. So it's really a different trade area. So we're starting to see that some of the sales comparisons are getting A little bit, not necessarily relevant. We're still seeing the Chipotlanes perform at a higher level, but it's a little bit like comparing an apple to an orange, Still margin return and from a sales standpoint, they're still great. It still does generate higher digital mix By several 100 basis points and there still is a shift where delivery takes a step down from something in the high teens into the mid or low teens And order ahead steps up quite a bit from something in the called the low 20% up to the high 20s or even a 30%.

Speaker 3

So all the same kind of Directional things that we've seen, all the benefits that we've seen with Chipotlane are continuing to show up.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jon Tower with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Curious, Brian, you mentioned earlier in the call that your smaller market stores are coming in strong, perhaps even better than you had anticipated. So I'm curious, I know you've recently offered the 7,000 store TAM for North America. But given the you're seeing as well as some of the new technology like the clamshell grills that you're still testing or even hyphen on the horizon, does that Maybe alter that opportunity for new stores over time?

Speaker 2

I mean, look, obviously, as we get closer To that 7,000 number, we'll have a much better idea of whether or not we can grow beyond the 7,000. The good news is we've not seen any slowdown in our performance. So all the restaurants we're opening, they're opening with strength. And obviously, we look at this every year as we kind of take another look at our market planning. And the good news is we're opening restaurants in for Chipotle, I would say, somewhat penetrated markets, And they continue to perform really well.

Speaker 2

And that gives us confidence because then we can kind of start thinking through like, well, if you start extrapolating that across the country, Small towns do really well, and it's great to see, frankly, the restaurants do really well in urban and our more penetrated markets. So Lots of opportunity in front of us on the new restaurant opening frontier.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. And just one more follow-up. Do you have any more planned LTOs for 2023?

Speaker 2

We always think through kind of something in the front half and something in the back half. We haven't Definitively made a decision on what we're going to do in the back half yet. The good news is our pipeline is really strong and we've got some flexibility, but We want to see where the consumer is, the strength of Project Square 1, and that will inform what we choose to do in the back half of the year.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Peter Saleh with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Brian, I want to ask about the hyphen automation. I think you mentioned that's for the Digital Make Line, when you're thinking about this and I know it's still early, is this more for new restaurants Or can you fit this into your existing footprint in some of your existing locations?

Speaker 2

Yes. No, one of the things that's great about this is it would fit in our existing locations. It's almost a pull out the current line, put in the new line kind of idea, which is really exciting. Probably the first place you'd see us do it, it will be with new units, just because it's easier to implement. But the good news is Kurt and the team are designing this so that it will work with our existing restaurants.

Speaker 4

Great. And then just one question on the Chicken al Pastor LTO. It sounds like it's performed exceptionally well. Is it bringing in new guests to the brand that previously haven't come to Chipotle? And is there a level at which an LTO Has so much success that it becomes a permanent item or do you always consider it as an LTO?

Speaker 2

Yes. Well, the good news is Chicken al Pastor has been broadly appealing, so both to new users and existing customers. The decision to make it permanent would be something we would do after we finish this LTO run. So we haven't come to the conclusion that we would make this permit, but your statement is correct. It's Definitely performing really well.

Speaker 2

And crew member feedback is this is an easy one for them to make and customer feedback has been really positive as well. We did decide to make the fajita quesadilla permanent in our digital platform, but that's a little different than making Chicken al So for this one, it's definitely planned to be an LTO. We'll execute it as an LTO and then we can always revisit whether we make it a permanent menu item

Operator

The next question comes from Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. The first one is on the comp guidance. The fact that you're resuming guidance for full year, I would assume that's an indication of stabilization that you're seeing maybe more week to week or month to month or Your visibility, just wondering if you can share why that has returned and maybe what are the components you're assuming in that mid to high single digit in 2Q and full year, just trying to gauge what the pricing would be if you took no further and what the traffic assumption is?

Speaker 9

And then I just had one follow-up.

Speaker 3

Yes. On the guidance, it assumes we don't take any additional pricing. Similar to the comment that Brian made before, right now we're staying the course. So what it assumes is we continue the same transaction trends that we've seen in the first Continue into the Q2. It recognizes that we took some menu price action last year and those will roll off.

Speaker 3

And so that's in essence what we put together for the full year guidance. And the idea here, Jeff, is that We don't know if we're going to continue like beyond the next few quarters and give quarterly guidance all the time. You might remember A few years ago, we used to give just the annual and then not talk about what the quarterly guidance is. And so what we're doing right now is We're kind of doing both for a while and then we'll see how the trends unfold. We'll see what happens to the macro and then we'll make a decision in terms of what our guidance is going to be.

Speaker 3

But We actually think about our business in terms of a longer term approach than quarter to quarter. And so we think the guidance ought to match that as well. So that's the reason for the change.

Speaker 9

Understood. And then just on the marketing front, I think you said the mid-two percent range for the 2nd quarter. I know it was in the 3s in the Q1. I'm just wondering, just talk about the thought process around marketing, whether this is a conscious Pull back for any particular reason or how you measure the returns kind of your How happy have you been with the marketing you've had thus far and the outlook going forward? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Well, we've been really happy with how the brand has shown up and the initiatives that we've rolled out. On the percentages, I think that has more to do with just timing than anything else. It is.

Speaker 3

It's timing. It's been planned. Yes. And we tend to Spend more in the Q1, 1st part of the year and the back half of the year and typically to support these LPOs.

Speaker 2

Well, I think if Chris were here, he'd also say too like the summer months aren't the best time for broad based media, right? So I think that's part of the timing.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Today's last question comes from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you so much for taking the question. Jack, I have a question on commodity inflation. I was wondering whether you could kind of handicap the likelihood of deflation in the It feels like there's some big chunks poultry, dairy seem to be likely solidly deflationary. Just kind of wondering what the moving pieces are in your mind, how much visibility you have and just what you think the chances of deflation are in the back

Speaker 3

Yes, it's not our it's a good question. It's not our base case. Our base case is to see modest inflation in the back half of the year. We're predicting Somewhere in the low to mid single digit. We've been really pleasantly surprised by what's happened so far.

Speaker 3

We have had a number of miscellaneous items where we've seen inflation like some of our oils, tortilla, some of our sauces and things like that, But even offset by lower than expected avocado costs. So that's why our food cost has been steady for 2 quarters in a row. And it's been a number of quarters that That's happened where we haven't seen any net inflation. So I do think it's a possibility. It depends on what the Fed does.

Speaker 3

It Depends on what happens to inflation broadly. The wildcard there is, if inflation disappears, you have to also then wonder, okay, what's happening with the macro What's happening with unemployment and consumer demand as well. So right now, we kind of like the environment we're in right now where Consumers have jobs, they have money, they're visiting restaurants, and the inflation that we're seeing is pretty modest. So that base case that we put together and how we plan the rest The year feels pretty good to us. We wouldn't mind inflation going down, but we'd love it if it didn't also be accompanied with a softness in demand.

Speaker 5

Great. And that answer kind of flows into my next question, which was, I think as you talked about the annual guidance for same store sales, You talked about the macro environment staying as it is now. So I just want to kind of make sure I understood what your kind of base case is The macro environment in the back half of the year, and should we think of the range kind of slight recession on the low end?

Speaker 6

How should

Speaker 5

we think about the macro outlook and your guidance and maybe how you think you're positioned, I mean, if we do see a deceleration

Speaker 3

So first of all, in our prepared comments, we did say our guidance assumes that there's not a meaningful change in the macro environment, Okay. Because obviously all bets are off if that happens. But in terms of our outlook, our outlook does not our base cases does not include A recession or certainly not a meaningful recession. Again, it looks like unemployment is holding up really well. It looks like consumer spending It's strong right now.

Speaker 3

I mean Brian mentioned our we saw softness in the second half of last year, especially the 4th quarter in lower income consumer. We saw those consumers come back almost at the same rate as our higher income consumers. And so we see that as a positive sign, a positive macro sign. So We're cautiously optimistic about what's going to happen in the second half of the year. Now if there is a recession, we feel like we're really well prepared.

Speaker 3

We own all of our restaurants. We don't have any debt. So we don't have the possibility of franchisees under pressure if they have debt payments and that there is a softening of demand. And we don't feel like we have to run the business based on a quarter by quarter mentality. So if we need to Right.

Speaker 3

A couple of tough quarters here or there. We certainly think we have the financial wherewithal and we have the long term view to do that. But again, we're

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Brian Niccol for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks. And thanks everybody for joining the call and all the questions. Obviously, we're very proud of The work that has gone into achieving these results, I think I mentioned this before, Chipotle has got one of those special Brands, strengths, when you look out there. There aren't many companies, I think, that are growing top line, expanding margins and building new units To the tune of 8% to 10%.

Speaker 2

And then when you combine that with the strength of the balance sheet, the strength of our economics, We're very confident in the strategies that we're continuing to execute. We are not slowing down though on Project Square 1 and we're not Going down on providing digital access and we're not going to slow down on making the brand visible and loved. And the foundation of all this is when we Have great people with great culinary. We usually end up with great experiences for our guests. So we're staying the course and we believe The strategies and these focus areas are going to deliver results for the long term.

Speaker 2

And We're optimistic about our long term future of getting to those 7,000 restaurants and AUP is well beyond 3,000,000. So

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Earnings Conference Call
Chipotle Mexican Grill Q1 2023
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