Burford Capital Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• New business momentum and portfolio growth: Burford said fiscal 2025 brought a 39% rise in new definitive commitments, a 20% growth in its base portfolio and modeled realizations increased to about $5.2 billion, with management saying it is on pace to significantly exceed its goal of doubling the base portfolio by 2030.
• Realizations and returns: The company saw a similar number of realization events as FY24 but fewer large outcomes, which drove lower reported income and ROIC for the year even as two‑year ROIC remained strong (~81%) and management still targets long‑term ROE near 20% despite timing variability.
• Accounting, liquidity and YPF update: Executives cautioned that GAAP fair‑value marks can move for timing, duration or bankruptcy reasons even when case merits are favorable; year‑end cash was $621 million and Burford issued $500 million of 7.5% notes to refinance maturities, while the YPF appeal is pending with enforcement actions active across multiple jurisdictions.

Burford Capital NYSE: BUR executives used the company’s fiscal year 2025 and fourth-quarter earnings call to highlight strong new business momentum and portfolio growth, while acknowledging that realization activity and reported income fell from the prior year amid slower case throughput and fewer “big, chunky” outcomes.

New business strength and portfolio expansion

Chief Executive Officer Christopher Bogart emphasized that fiscal 2025 was a “standout year” for new business—an area management said it can control more directly than the timing of court outcomes. Bogart said new definitive commitments and deployments rose significantly and positioned Burford well toward its longer-term goal of doubling its “base portfolio” by 2030. He added that, at the current pace, the company would “significantly exceed” that goal.

Management said the company added a net $700 million of additional modeled realizations during the year, taking modeled realizations to more than $5 billion. On slide 10, Bogart pointed to a 39% year-over-year increase in new definitive commitments and said Burford’s base portfolio grew 20% in fiscal 2025.

Chief Financial Officer Jordan Licht said the portfolio stood at $3.9 billion at year-end. He broke that down as:

• YPF exposure of just under $1.7 billion
• Deployed cost of slightly over $1.7 billion
• Unrealized fair value of just under $500 million (about 27%–28% of deployed cost)

Licht also described the portfolio as geographically and asset-type diversified, with just over 50% in North America. He added that the company’s growth in commitments did not come from “reaching for more risk,” noting that higher-risk commitments were “pretty much the same” as fiscal 2024, with most growth coming from other risk buckets.

Realizations: activity steady, fewer large outcomes

While management characterized realization activity as “robust,” executives said fiscal 2025 results were not as strong as fiscal 2024, which they called a record year. Bogart said the company saw roughly the same number of portfolio events—69 assets contributed to realization activity in fiscal 2025 versus 71 in fiscal 2024—but the dollars per event were lower because there were fewer outsized wins.

Chief Investment Officer Jonathan Molot echoed that characterization, saying the portfolio saw comparable activity but fewer large realizations. He also noted that a large, short-term matter affected reported return metrics in a specific way: it produced about a 40% IRR but only a 25% ROIC, contributing to a lower ROIC figure for the year even though he said he would “do that deal any day.” Over the two-year period, Molot said the company generated an ROIC of 81%, close to its longer-term track record.

Executives reiterated that the variability in timing is inherent in litigation outcomes and, in Bogart’s words, resembles “four lanes of highway traffic trying to merge into two”—a bottleneck they said is influenced by court congestion and the pace at which cases move toward trial, which can pressure defendants to settle.

GAAP fair value marks and why management says they can diverge from case merits

Bogart and Licht spent time explaining why GAAP marks can move even when underlying cases are proceeding favorably. Bogart said fiscal 2025 included higher unrealized losses tied to factors that may not reflect case merits, such as duration changes and costs. Management stressed that realized loss rates remained low and consistent with historical experience, and that returns and loss rates were stable.

To illustrate, Bogart highlighted several examples:

• “Proteins” antitrust matters: Bogart said the cases were “going pretty well,” including a recent win in the Seventh Circuit rejecting an effort by a major player to cling to an earlier settlement. However, he said longer duration and higher cost drove a $22 million charge to earnings due to fair value impacts from timing assumptions.
• Counterparty Chapter 11: In one portfolio situation, a large wholesale distributor entered Chapter 11. Bogart said Burford took an accounting charge due to the bankruptcy process, but the underlying litigation claims used as collateral were continuing to settle and generate cash, and management expressed optimism about avoiding a typical bankruptcy-associated loss.
• Mining arbitration with cross-collateralization: Bogart described a portfolio with two cases where one had an initial unfavorable outcome (and the other remained undecided while the first was on appeal). He said the accounting value fell because one “chance to win” was impaired, but either case could still be sufficient for Burford to recover its entitlement.

Modeled realizations framework and Asset Management

Molot said modeled realizations for the portfolio increased to $5.2 billion as of December 31, 2025, up from $4.5 billion a year earlier. He attributed $1.4 billion of modeled realizations to fiscal 2025 definitive commitments, offset by roughly half a billion of actual realizations and other modeled reductions that management said were consistent with fair value changes discussed on the call.

Licht provided additional context on how management views modeled outcomes (excluding YPF in the framework he discussed). He said the “win node” estimate—if all cases were won through adjudication—would be $12.8 billion, but after applying litigation risk premiums and discounting for duration, that “settles at” $2.2 billion, corresponding to the portfolio’s deployed cost and fair value on the balance sheet. He said modeled realizations were $5.2 billion and referenced a modeled ROIC of 110%, based on an estimated $2.5 billion of deployed cost over time.

On Asset Management, Licht said cash receipts were $32 million in 2025, with income of $36 million. He noted that BOF-C-related funds were predominantly in runoff, while the Sovereign Wealth Fund partnership continued as a partner through amendments and ongoing investments, despite the end of its investment period. He also said the company began receiving income from the Advantage Fund as that portfolio performed.

Liquidity, debt, expenses, and capital return discussion

Licht said year-end cash was $621 million. He described a summer debt transaction in which Burford issued $500 million of notes at 7.5% to refinance bonds due in 2025, emphasizing that proceeds largely went to repay maturities. He also said the company refinanced remaining U.K. bonds in the first quarter of the new fiscal year and highlighted that the Rule 144A market had become more practical for Burford’s capital raising.

On expenses, Licht said operating expenses were slightly higher than fiscal 2024, citing professional fees and the completion of Burford’s transition to KPMG from EY, as well as the resolution of a material weakness with the filing of the 10-K. He also discussed compensation line items and reminded investors that while the company accrues “carry,” it is paid only when cash is received. Case-related expenses, he noted, were difficult to compare to 2024 due to a prior-year insurance settlement that created a negative expense line then.

Addressing investor questions submitted via webcast, Bogart explained why the company maintained its dividend rather than redirecting it entirely to buybacks. He said the dividend is $0.125 per year—about $25 million—and argued that eliminating it could turn certain U.K. income-focused investors into “forced sellers.” Management said it weighed that potential shareholder-base disruption against what it viewed as a relatively small buyback capacity at that size of capital.

YPF: appeal timeline and ongoing enforcement activity

Bogart also reviewed developments in the YPF-related matter, noting that Burford is awaiting a decision from the Second Circuit on Argentina’s main appeal of the underlying judgment, which was argued on October 29. He said a decision could be expected during the course of the year based on past practice, but emphasized there is no requirement for that timing and litigation risk remains.

Separately, Bogart said the district court has continued enforcement efforts and scheduled a further evidentiary hearing for late April on topics including contempt and sanctions and Argentina’s gold reserves. He also cited additional collateral appeals and discovery issues, and said enforcement proceedings are underway in eight foreign jurisdictions, with management expecting “a reasonable amount of activity” in 2026.

In the Q&A, management declined to provide guidance on realizations for 2026, citing policy and the unpredictability of court timing. Bogart attributed the backlog dynamic in part to pandemic-era court closures and the difficulty of clearing congestion when settlement pressure depends on trial proximity. Executives reiterated their view that portfolio quality has not degraded, and Bogart said Burford still believes it can achieve a long-term return on equity “in the 20% range,” even if individual years vary.

About Burford Capital NYSE: BUR

Burford Capital NYSE: BUR is a leading global finance firm that specializes in litigation and arbitration funding, risk management, and asset recovery. The company provides capital to law firms and corporate clients to finance legal fees and associated costs in commercial disputes. In exchange for funding, Burford shares in any awards or settlements, enabling clients to pursue meritorious claims without bearing upfront legal expenses.

Founded in 2009 by Christopher Bogart, Burford was among the first firms to establish a dedicated litigation finance business.

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