Citigroup Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) Stock Price

Key Points

• Citigroup cut its price target on Genius Sports from $9 to $8, though it kept a buy rating. The new target still implies substantial upside from the current share price.
• Other analysts have also lowered expectations, with several firms trimming their targets even as most maintain bullish ratings. Overall, MarketBeat shows a Moderate Buy consensus and an average target of $11.78.
• Genius Sports’ latest earnings showed strong revenue growth but weaker profitability, as quarterly EPS missed estimates. Revenue rose 30.5% year over year to $187.95 million, while the company reported a larger-than-expected loss.

Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI - Get Free Report) had its target price reduced by analysts at Citigroup from $9.00 to $8.00 in a report released on Friday,Benzinga reports. The brokerage currently has a "buy" rating on the stock. Citigroup's price objective would indicate a potential upside of 82.07% from the stock's current price.

A number of other equities analysts have also commented on the stock. Needham & Company LLC dropped their price target on shares of Genius Sports from $14.00 to $10.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Friday. Stifel Nicolaus dropped their price target on shares of Genius Sports from $7.00 to $5.00 and set a "hold" rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, April 9th. Weiss Ratings reissued a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of Genius Sports in a research report on Friday, March 27th. Wells Fargo & Company dropped their price target on shares of Genius Sports from $10.00 to $9.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, March 5th. Finally, Oppenheimer dropped their price target on shares of Genius Sports from $12.00 to $11.00 and set an "outperform" rating on the stock in a research report on Thursday, March 5th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, Genius Sports has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $11.78.

Genius Sports Price Performance

GENI traded down $0.39 during midday trading on Friday, hitting $4.39. 5,782,515 shares of the company's stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 6,221,794. Genius Sports has a one year low of $3.83 and a one year high of $13.73. The company has a market cap of $1.08 billion, a PE ratio of -10.22 and a beta of 1.80. The stock's fifty day simple moving average is $4.83 and its 200-day simple moving average is $8.00.

Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, May 7th. The company reported ($0.21) EPS for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.09) by ($0.12). Genius Sports had a negative net margin of 16.67% and a negative return on equity of 13.66%. The firm had revenue of $187.95 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $170.60 million. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned ($0.03) EPS. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 30.5% compared to the same quarter last year.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Genius Sports

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the stock. Vanguard Personalized Indexing Management LLC increased its position in Genius Sports by 9.1% during the third quarter. Vanguard Personalized Indexing Management LLC now owns 14,131 shares of the company's stock worth $175,000 after acquiring an additional 1,177 shares during the period. Prelude Capital Management LLC boosted its stake in Genius Sports by 1.3% during the third quarter. Prelude Capital Management LLC now owns 92,529 shares of the company's stock worth $1,146,000 after buying an additional 1,181 shares in the last quarter. Cetera Investment Advisers boosted its stake in Genius Sports by 10.0% during the second quarter. Cetera Investment Advisers now owns 15,288 shares of the company's stock worth $159,000 after buying an additional 1,388 shares in the last quarter. SkyView Investment Advisors LLC boosted its stake in Genius Sports by 2.0% during the second quarter. SkyView Investment Advisors LLC now owns 77,289 shares of the company's stock worth $802,000 after buying an additional 1,512 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Main Management ETF Advisors LLC boosted its stake in Genius Sports by 1.0% during the fourth quarter. Main Management ETF Advisors LLC now owns 163,647 shares of the company's stock worth $1,803,000 after buying an additional 1,672 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 81.91% of the company's stock.

Key Stories Impacting Genius Sports

Here are the key news stories impacting Genius Sports this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Management highlighted faster-than-expected growth in prediction markets and raised its outlook — a potential multi-year revenue/cross‑sell catalyst if adoption continues. Genius Sports Touts Prediction Market Growth, Raises Outlook
• Positive Sentiment: Q1 revenue beat: $187.95M vs. ~$170.6M expected, up ~30.5% year-over-year — shows topline momentum that supports the growth narrative despite profitability pressures. GENI Reports Q1 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Positive media/analyst narratives (The Motley Fool pieces) are reinforcing the long-term thesis that Genius is the “raw data layer” for sports leagues and could gain from a prediction‑market boom — this can attract growth‑oriented buyers. Kalshi vs. Polymarket? This Small‑Cap Sports Data Stock Is the Surefire Winner Either Way.
• Neutral Sentiment: The company said it updated FY‑2026 guidance in its release (the update was noted in filings/slide deck) — investors will need more color on margin timing and EPS trajectory to judge near‑term valuation. Genius Sports FY2026 Release / Slide Deck
• Negative Sentiment: Earnings miss on profitability: Q1 EPS was ($0.21) vs. consensus ($0.09) — a sizable miss that highlights margin pressure and drove short‑term selling. Genius Sports Conference Call / Results
• Negative Sentiment: Analysts trimmed price targets (BTIG cut to $9, Needham to $10) even while keeping Buy ratings — the cuts reduce upside expectations and add downward pressure on the stock in the near term. Analyst Price Target Cuts (Benzinga/The Fly coverage)

About Genius Sports

Genius Sports is a global sports technology company that specializes in collecting, analyzing and distributing real-time sports data and video streams. The firm provides official data feeds, live video streaming solutions and digital engagement tools to sports leagues, federations, broadcasters and betting operators. By integrating data directly from sporting events through its network of field officials and proprietary technology, Genius Sports ensures accuracy and integrity for partners who rely on up-to-the-second information.

The company’s product suite includes a cloud-based platform for data capture and distribution, an integrity services offering designed to identify and mitigate match-fixing risks, and a suite of commercial products that power odds creation, in-game betting markets and fan engagement experiences.

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