Citigroup Issues Pessimistic Forecast for GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL) Stock Price

Key Points

• Citigroup cut its price target on GFL from $55 to $51 but kept a "buy" rating, implying roughly a 33.5% upside versus the current share price (about $38.19).
• GFL's planned acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure (~C$6.4B) will be funded ~80% in stock; management says the deal is accretive, but dilution and integration concerns spurred a sell‑off and heavy trading volume.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed — the consensus is a "Moderate Buy" with an average target of $55.44, yet JPMorgan downgraded GFL to "underweight" and the company recently posted an EPS beat alongside a revenue miss.

GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL - Get Free Report) had its price target dropped by investment analysts at Citigroup from $55.00 to $51.00 in a research note issued on Tuesday,BayStreet.CA reports. The firm currently has a "buy" rating on the stock. Citigroup's target price would indicate a potential upside of 33.54% from the company's current price.

GFL has been the topic of several other research reports. Scotiabank lowered their target price on shares of GFL Environmental from $57.00 to $56.00 and set a "sector outperform" rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, February 12th. Wolfe Research initiated coverage on shares of GFL Environmental in a research note on Friday, March 13th. They set an "outperform" rating on the stock. Weiss Ratings cut shares of GFL Environmental from a "buy (b-)" rating to a "hold (c+)" rating in a research note on Monday, February 9th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut shares of GFL Environmental from a "neutral" rating to an "underweight" rating and lowered their target price for the company from $49.00 to $42.00 in a research note on Tuesday. Finally, Royal Bank Of Canada upped their target price on shares of GFL Environmental from $59.00 to $60.00 and gave the company an "outperform" rating in a research note on Thursday, February 12th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eleven have issued a Buy rating, two have given a Hold rating and one has issued a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $55.44.

GFL Environmental Stock Down 2.0%

GFL stock traded down $0.76 during trading on Tuesday, hitting $38.19. 4,306,635 shares of the stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 1,723,392. GFL Environmental has a 1 year low of $36.96 and a 1 year high of $52.00. The firm's 50 day moving average is $42.85 and its two-hundred day moving average is $43.80. The stock has a market cap of $13.67 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.62, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 3.32 and a beta of 0.84. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05, a current ratio of 0.58 and a quick ratio of 0.58.

GFL Environmental (NYSE:GFL - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, February 11th. The company reported $0.26 EPS for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.14 by $0.12. GFL Environmental had a net margin of 56.61% and a return on equity of 3.66%. The company had revenue of $1.23 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.67 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the firm posted ($0.58) EPS. GFL Environmental's revenue for the quarter was up 7.3% on a year-over-year basis. On average, sell-side analysts anticipate that GFL Environmental will post 0.58 EPS for the current year.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On GFL Environmental

Several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in GFL. Aster Capital Management DIFC Ltd bought a new stake in GFL Environmental during the 4th quarter worth approximately $25,000. Sunbelt Securities Inc. bought a new stake in GFL Environmental during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $33,000. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC raised its stake in GFL Environmental by 43.1% during the 2nd quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 727 shares of the company's stock worth $37,000 after acquiring an additional 219 shares during the period. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd raised its stake in GFL Environmental by 45.2% during the 3rd quarter. Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd now owns 976 shares of the company's stock worth $46,000 after acquiring an additional 304 shares during the period. Finally, Jones Financial Companies Lllp raised its stake in GFL Environmental by 21.9% during the 3rd quarter. Jones Financial Companies Lllp now owns 1,606 shares of the company's stock worth $75,000 after acquiring an additional 289 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 64.70% of the company's stock.

More GFL Environmental News

Here are the key news stories impacting GFL Environmental this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Acquisition is strategically accretive and expands services: GFL agreed to buy SECURE Waste Infrastructure (enterprise value ~C$6.4B / ~$4.6B). Management says the deal is immediately accretive, will raise pro forma adjusted free cash flow per share by ~12–15%, increase adjusted EBITDA margin to ~31.6% and improve FCF conversion (40.5–42.5%). The purchase expands GFL’s Western Canada footprint and industrial/energy‑linked services. PR Newswire: Acquisition Announcement
• Neutral Sentiment: Multiple outlets confirmed the transaction and valuation, so the market is pricing confirmed deal risk rather than rumor. Coverage includes Reuters/WSJ/Globe & Mail, which helps reduce headline uncertainty but leaves execution, timing and regulator questions open. WSJ: Deal Coverage
• Negative Sentiment: Deal funded mostly with stock (80% shares, 20% cash) — dilution concerns: the large share consideration implies significant new GFL share issuance, which typically pressures the acquirer’s stock and can outweigh accretion headlines in the short term. PR Newswire: Deal Terms (80% stock)
• Negative Sentiment: Investor reaction and price action: markets reacted to the size and stock‑heavy structure — several reports show GFL shares slid on investor concerns about dilution, integration risk and near‑term financial flexibility after another recent large deal. High trading volume accompanied the drop. QuiverQuant: Market Reaction
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst downgrade adds near‑term selling pressure: JPMorgan lowered GFL from Neutral to Underweight and cut its price target to $42 from $49, signaling reduced conviction among some institutional analysts and likely contributing to negative sentiment. TickerReport/Benzinga: JPMorgan Downgrade
• Neutral Sentiment: Mixed analyst landscape: while some firms have higher targets and positive ratings (median targets have been well above current levels), the downgrade and deal‑specific concerns create divergent analyst signals; investors will watch upcoming guidance and the investor call for clarity. Financial Post: Analyst Context

GFL Environmental Company Profile

GFL Environmental Inc is a leading North American provider of diversified environmental services, offering comprehensive solutions across solid waste management, liquid waste management, soil remediation and infrastructure services. The company's core business activities include residential, commercial and industrial waste collection, recycling, composting and landfill management. In addition to traditional waste services, GFL provides specialized liquid waste hauling, treatment and disposal services as well as environmental consulting to support industrial and municipal clients in meeting regulatory and sustainability goals.

Founded in 2007 by entrepreneur Patrick Dovigi, GFL Environmental has pursued an aggressive growth strategy driven by strategic acquisitions and organic expansion.

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