Natera (NASDAQ:NTRA) Releases Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.14 EPS

Key Points

• Natera’s quarterly revenue rose 34.1% year over year to about $794 million, topping estimates, but its loss of $0.42 per share was 14 cents worse than expected.
• The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.005 billion–$3.035 billion after a record quarter of testing volumes; management also highlighted Medicare coverage expansion for its Signatera cancer-monitoring test.
• Natera shares fell sharply after the results. Management expects increased investment and higher operating expenses, while aiming to double revenue to $6 billion by 2029.

Natera (NASDAQ:NTRA - Get Free Report) released its quarterly earnings data on Thursday. The medical research company reported ($0.42) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.28) by ($0.14), FiscalAI reports. The firm had revenue of $793.98 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $707.54 million. Natera had a negative net margin of 5.66% and a negative return on equity of 8.73%. The business's revenue for the quarter was up 34.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted ($0.64) earnings per share.

Here are the key takeaways from Natera's conference call:

• Natera reported a record quarter, processing about 1.09 million tests, up 22%, and generating $794 million in revenue, up 34% year over year—or more than 40% excluding revenue true-ups. Clinical MRD volumes rose 56% to approximately 316,000 units.
• The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $3.005 billion–$3.035 billion, an increase of $140 million at the midpoint. It also reported 65% gross margin and said losses narrowed while it generated cash.
• Management highlighted new Medicare coverage for Signatera surveillance in early-stage liver cancer, nine to ten additional MolDX submissions in progress, and plans to launch colorectal and bladder cancer testing in Japan pending reimbursement and pricing. Executives said the coverage pipeline could support further Signatera ASP growth, though timing and outcomes remain uncertain.
• Natera set a goal of doubling revenue to $6 billion by 2029, primarily through continued growth in oncology testing, higher Signatera ASPs, international expansion, and pharma and data services. Management expects early cancer detection to contribute relatively little to that target in 2028–2029.
• The company plans to increase investment to support clinical trials, pharma and data demand, and early cancer detection; operating expenses are expected to grow 10%–12% in 2027. Management also cautioned that newer products may weigh on near-term costs and gross margins, although it expects cost improvements over time.

Natera Stock Performance

Natera stock traded down $53.09 during mid-day trading on Friday, hitting $310.67. 5,775,619 shares of the company's stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 1,711,005. Natera has a fifty-two week low of $181.00 and a fifty-two week high of $437.41. The company's 50 day simple moving average is $380.25 and its 200-day simple moving average is $269.68.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other Natera news, insider Solomon Moshkevich sold 15,160 shares of Natera stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, September 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $326.89, for a total value of $4,955,652.40. Following the transaction, the insider owned 110,859 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $36,238,698.51. The trade was a 12.03% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, insider John Fesko sold 6,517 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Monday, August 10th. The shares were sold at an average price of $321.53, for a total transaction of $2,095,411.01. Following the completion of the sale, the insider directly owned 197,257 shares in the company, valued at $63,424,043.21. This represents a 3.20% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Over the last quarter, insiders have sold 53,573 shares of company stock worth $19,856,400. Company insiders own 5.05% of the company's stock.

Analyst Ratings Changes

A number of analysts have recently weighed in on NTRA shares. Barclays raised their target price on Natera from $340.00 to $475.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research note on Wednesday, October 7th. Leerink Partners set a $330.00 price target on shares of Natera in a research report on Friday, August 7th. Royal Bank Of Canada increased their price objective on shares of Natera from $350.00 to $460.00 and gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a report on Friday, September 25th. Stephens increased their price objective on shares of Natera from $305.00 to $350.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a report on Wednesday, August 12th. Finally, Guggenheim raised their price objective on shares of Natera from $360.00 to $475.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 1st. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seventeen have issued a Buy rating, two have assigned a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $391.69.

Natera News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Natera this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Third-quarter revenue rose 34.1% year over year to $794 million, beating analyst expectations. Natera also raised its fiscal 2026 sales outlook, supporting the growth outlook for its testing business. Natera Q3 results and outlook
• Positive Sentiment: Medicare coverage for Signatera in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) could broaden access to the cancer-monitoring test and support adoption. Medicare coverage for Signatera in HCC
• Neutral Sentiment: JPMorgan lowered its price target from $460 to $405 but maintained an Overweight rating, indicating continued confidence while marking down its valuation expectations. JPMorgan price-target update
• Negative Sentiment: CEO Steve Chapman is stepping down, creating uncertainty around leadership and the transition. The announcement weighed on sentiment despite the stronger revenue outlook. CEO transition and market reaction
• Negative Sentiment: The quarterly per-share loss was wider than analysts expected (about $0.42 versus a $0.28 consensus loss), despite revenue beating estimates. This earnings miss appears to have contributed to the selloff. Natera third-quarter financial results

About Natera

Natera, Inc is a diagnostics company that develops and provides genetic testing and molecular diagnostics for reproductive health, oncology and organ health. Its tests analyze cell-free DNA and other genetic material to support screening, diagnosis and disease monitoring.

In reproductive health, Natera offers Panorama, a noninvasive prenatal screening test, and Horizon, a carrier screening test. Its oncology portfolio includes Signatera, a personalized circulating tumor DNA test used to monitor for molecular residual disease and assess cancer recurrence.

The company also provides Prospera, a molecular test used to help assess organ transplant rejection.

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