Erste Group Bank Has Positive Outlook for BP FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group raised FY2026 EPS to $5.04, up from $3.18 and roughly matching the $5.00 consensus, citing stronger trading/margin expectations; BP also beat Q1 estimates with $1.24 EPS and $52.26B revenue driven by exceptional oil trading and higher crude prices.
• Dividend maintained at $0.4992 quarterly (≈4.3% yield), supporting income investors, but buybacks are paused as net debt has risen, which limits near‑term shareholder returns.
• Analysts show a "Moderate Buy" consensus on BP with an average price target of $44.39, though individual ratings range from Strong Buy to Sell, reflecting mixed views despite recent upside momentum.

BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Erste Group Bank upped their FY2026 earnings estimates for shares of BP in a research report issued to clients and investors on Monday, April 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now anticipates that the oil and gas exploration company will earn $5.04 per share for the year, up from their previous estimate of $3.18. The consensus estimate for BP's current full-year earnings is $5.00 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for BP's FY2027 earnings at $4.08 EPS.

BP (NYSE:BP - Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, April 28th. The oil and gas exploration company reported $1.24 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.91 by $0.33. The business had revenue of $52.26 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $48.43 billion. BP had a net margin of 0.03% and a return on equity of 9.68%. BP's revenue was up 11.4% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the business posted $0.53 EPS.

Several other equities analysts have also recently weighed in on the company. BNP Paribas Exane set a $57.00 price objective on BP and gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a research report on Friday, April 17th. Melius Research downgraded BP from a "buy" rating to a "sell" rating and set a $31.00 price target on the stock. in a research report on Wednesday, February 11th. Wall Street Zen upgraded BP from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating in a report on Saturday, March 14th. TD Cowen lowered their price objective on shares of BP from $37.00 to $35.00 and set a "hold" rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, February 13th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded shares of BP from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a research note on Monday, March 30th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nine have assigned a Buy rating, eight have assigned a Hold rating and three have issued a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $44.39.

BP Stock Up 0.9%

BP stock opened at $46.77 on Thursday. The stock has a market capitalization of $122.48 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -4,672.23, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.59 and a beta of 0.21. The company has a 50-day moving average of $43.78 and a two-hundred day moving average of $38.54. BP has a 52-week low of $27.20 and a 52-week high of $48.27. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74, a current ratio of 1.26 and a quick ratio of 0.98.

Institutional Trading of BP

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the company. Quantbot Technologies LP acquired a new stake in BP during the third quarter worth $1,352,000. Jones Financial Companies Lllp raised its stake in shares of BP by 22.1% in the 3rd quarter. Jones Financial Companies Lllp now owns 127,792 shares of the oil and gas exploration company's stock valued at $4,553,000 after buying an additional 23,166 shares in the last quarter. United Community Bank lifted its holdings in shares of BP by 173.8% during the 3rd quarter. United Community Bank now owns 29,086 shares of the oil and gas exploration company's stock worth $1,002,000 after acquiring an additional 18,463 shares during the period. Legacy Financial Advisors Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of BP during the 3rd quarter valued at about $793,000. Finally, Oakworth Capital Inc. increased its stake in BP by 18.5% in the third quarter. Oakworth Capital Inc. now owns 4,765 shares of the oil and gas exploration company's stock valued at $164,000 after acquiring an additional 745 shares during the period. 11.01% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

BP Announces Dividend

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, June 26th. Shareholders of record on Friday, May 15th will be issued a $0.4992 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Friday, May 15th. This represents a $2.00 annualized dividend and a yield of 4.3%. BP's dividend payout ratio is 164.17%.

Trending Headlines about BP

Here are the key news stories impacting BP this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 earnings and trading windfall — BP reported sharply higher Q1 underlying profit driven by “exceptional” oil trading as Middle East tensions lifted prices; results beat expectations and lifted near-term cash flow visibility. BP Q1 2026 earnings double on Iran war oil trading boom
• Positive Sentiment: Macro tailwind from higher crude — Brent spikes above $125 on escalation fears, supporting BP’s trading and upstream realizations and explaining part of today’s upside in the stock. Shell and BP rise as Brent oil price surges above $125 on fears of US escalation of Iran war
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst EPS upgrades — Erste Group raised FY2026 and FY2027 EPS views materially, reflecting better trading/margin expectations and helping underpin the stock’s momentum (Erste now sees FY2026 ~$5.04 and FY2027 ~$4.08 per share).
• Positive Sentiment: Dividend maintained — BP announced the upcoming quarterly dividend (annualized yield ~4.3%), which supports income-oriented investors while buybacks remain paused.
• Neutral Sentiment: Venezuela MOU for offshore gas exploration — BP signed a memorandum to explore the Loran offshore gas area; strategic upside if commercial, but development timelines and geopolitical complexity make near-term impact uncertain. BP, Venezuela sign deal for oil producer to explore offshore Loran gas area
• Negative Sentiment: Higher net debt and paused buybacks — CFO commentary and reporting show net debt has climbed and BP is prioritizing balance-sheet repair over buybacks for now; this caps near-term shareholder returns and raises execution risk around targeted debt reduction. BP Profit More Than Doubles, Buybacks Paused As Debt Climbs 14%
• Negative Sentiment: Operational/ESG noise — A recent flaring incident at a BP refinery is under state monitoring; likely limited financial impact but increases regulatory/operational scrutiny. Flares went off at BP refinery Sunday night, IDEM monitoring

About BP

BP plc is a British multinational integrated energy company headquartered in London. Originating in the early 20th century as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, BP has grown into one of the world's largest oil and gas companies, operating across exploration and production, refining and marketing, trading, and a range of low-carbon businesses.

The company's core activities include upstream exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, midstream and trading operations, and downstream refining, marketing and supply of fuels, lubricants and petrochemicals.

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