Erste Group Bank Predicts Higher Earnings for Rio Tinto

Key Points

• Erste Group raised its FY2026 EPS forecast for Rio Tinto to $8.24 (from $8.16), kept a Buy rating and models FY2027 EPS at $8.34, versus a market consensus FY2026 estimate of $8.34.
• Several brokers have recently trimmed ratings or targets (Barclays, HSBC, DZ Bank), leaving a MarketBeat consensus rating of Hold and a consensus price target of $101.75, reflecting mixed analyst views.
• Rio Tinto paid a $2.54 dividend (record Mar 6, paid Apr 16) and has seen notable institutional buying—large increases from Fisher, Arrowstreet and Deutsche Bank—with about 19.33% of the stock held by hedge funds and other institutions.

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO - Free Report) - Analysts at Erste Group Bank boosted their FY2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Rio Tinto in a report issued on Monday, April 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now anticipates that the mining company will post earnings of $8.24 per share for the year, up from their previous forecast of $8.16. Erste Group Bank has a "Buy" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Rio Tinto's current full-year earnings is $8.34 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Rio Tinto's FY2027 earnings at $8.34 EPS.

RIO has been the subject of several other reports. Barclays downgraded Rio Tinto from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating in a research report on Tuesday, February 24th. Argus set a $120.00 target price on Rio Tinto in a report on Monday. HSBC cut Rio Tinto from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Monday, January 26th. Royal Bank Of Canada reissued a "sector perform" rating on shares of Rio Tinto in a report on Thursday, January 22nd. Finally, DZ Bank cut Rio Tinto from a "strong-buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Friday, February 20th. Four research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and eleven have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Rio Tinto has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $101.75.

Rio Tinto Price Performance

Shares of NYSE RIO opened at $98.39 on Wednesday. The company has a current ratio of 1.44, a quick ratio of 0.98 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33. The stock has a 50 day simple moving average of $94.44 and a 200-day simple moving average of $84.57. Rio Tinto has a 12-month low of $55.64 and a 12-month high of $101.53.

Rio Tinto Dividend Announcement

The business also recently declared a dividend, which was paid on Thursday, April 16th. Stockholders of record on Friday, March 6th were issued a dividend of $2.54 per share. This represents a dividend yield of 564.0%. The ex-dividend date was Friday, March 6th.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Rio Tinto

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Fisher Asset Management LLC grew its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 2.7% during the 4th quarter. Fisher Asset Management LLC now owns 19,642,744 shares of the mining company's stock valued at $1,572,009,000 after acquiring an additional 522,576 shares in the last quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership grew its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 170.8% during the 4th quarter. Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership now owns 3,886,335 shares of the mining company's stock valued at $311,023,000 after acquiring an additional 2,451,140 shares in the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE grew its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 31.9% during the 3rd quarter. Bank of America Corp DE now owns 3,157,545 shares of the mining company's stock valued at $208,430,000 after acquiring an additional 763,786 shares in the last quarter. Bank of Montreal Can grew its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 8.6% during the 4th quarter. Bank of Montreal Can now owns 2,221,469 shares of the mining company's stock valued at $177,784,000 after acquiring an additional 175,833 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Deutsche Bank AG grew its holdings in shares of Rio Tinto by 102.6% during the 4th quarter. Deutsche Bank AG now owns 2,216,935 shares of the mining company's stock valued at $177,421,000 after acquiring an additional 1,122,667 shares in the last quarter. 19.33% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

More Rio Tinto News

Here are the key news stories impacting Rio Tinto this week:

• Positive Sentiment: JPMorgan raised its price target on Rio Tinto after Q1 results, reflecting continued confidence in the company’s commodity exposure (copper, aluminium, iron ore) and supporting medium‑term valuation. JPMorgan Lifts PT on Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Following Q1 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Rio announced a A$100m commitment to help fund 500+ homes for regional frontline workers in WA’s Pilbara — a move that supports workforce stability for mining operations and improves ESG/community credentials. Rio Tinto's A$100m boost for essential service worker housing in the Pilbara
• Positive Sentiment: Rio extended an 18‑year partnership with Clontarf, backing programs for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young men — reinforcing social licence and long‑term community relationships. Clontarf and Rio Tinto extend 18-year partnership supporting young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men
• Neutral Sentiment: Rio and Angola’s state diamond company formed a joint venture to develop a mine — diversification into diamonds could add long‑term optionality but is unlikely to materially affect near‑term earnings. Rio Tinto, Angolan state diamond company form joint venture for mine
• Neutral Sentiment: Analysts express mixed views after Q1 production: some upgrades and PT lifts offset by caution on commodity prices and project timelines — this produces divergent near‑term guidance for the stock. Analysts Express Mixed Views on Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Following Q1 Production Results
• Neutral Sentiment: Market commentary highlights recent strong share momentum and improved valuation metrics after multi‑month gains, underscoring bullish technicals (50‑day SMA above 200‑day). A Look At Rio Tinto LSE: RIO Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
• Negative Sentiment: A workplace fatality at a Rio Tinto plant was reported, which can prompt near‑term operational scrutiny, potential investigations and reputational risk—factors that likely pressured the stock today. Employee killed in workplace incident at Rio Tinto plant

Rio Tinto Company Profile

Rio Tinto is a global mining and metals company that explores for, mines, processes and markets a wide range of commodities. Its principal products include iron ore, aluminum, copper, diamonds and various other minerals and industrial materials. The company's activities span the full value chain from exploration and project development to mining, processing, smelting and refining, supplying raw materials to industries such as steelmaking, automotive, packaging, electronics and construction.

The origins of Rio Tinto date back to mining operations in the Rio Tinto region of Spain in the 19th century, and the group has since grown into a multinational enterprise.

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